Fdd's overnight brief

July 21, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Hamas said on Monday that it had elected Khalil al-Hayya, who steered the cease-fire and hostage talks with Israel during the Gaza war, as its new political chief after a nearly two-year leadership vacuum. – New York Times

An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed a father, his wife and their four children in Gaza City, while ​setting their home ablaze, health officials said. Medics said the ‌Israeli strike on the family house in the Sabra neighbourhood killed the man, Firas Al-Masri, his wife, Salsabeel, and their three daughters and ​son. – Reuters

The Israeli military is quietly but quickly building a giant earthen barrier separating the over 50% of the Gaza Strip it controls from the rest of the territory, according to satellite imagery, further entrenching the division of the tiny Palestinian enclave. – Associated Press

The Transportation Ministry, Israel Airports Authority, and the IDF have completed the implementation of a series of directives, coordination procedures, and an advanced command and control system that will allow Ben-Gurion Airport to continue operating even under the threat of missiles and drones launched toward Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) killed Adham Ibrahim Sha’aban Nasman, Hamas’s Gaza City Brigade Operations Head, over the weekend, the two announced in a joint statement on Tuesday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The escalating conflict between the US and Iran could cause 30 Israeli passenger flights to be canceled each day without Iran even firing at Israel, according to a Monday N12 News report. An emergency meeting was held at Ben-Gurion Airport on Monday, attended by Transportation Minister Miri Regev, the directors-general of the Transportation Ministry and the Israel Airports Authority, and other professionals. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF nearly fired on five Israeli right-wing activists near the Syrian border two weeks ago after suspecting they were a terrorist squad attempting to enter Israel, public broadcaster KAN News reported on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Jews around the world have asked for years why Israel’s public diplomacy is so poor. After the October 7 massacre, that question became impossible to ignore. Whenever a commission of inquiry is finally established to investigate the failures surrounding that day, it needs to examine not only the intelligence and military breakdowns, but also why Israel entered perhaps the greatest communications battle in its history so spectacularly unprepared and flat-footed. It is finally trying to correct that mistake. That is neither nefarious nor sinister. Rather, it is imperative and long overdue. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: So not only does the U.S. restrict Israel’s use of its aid money to American vendors, but the U.S. also restricts Israel’s own export economy. Israel was (mostly) satisfied with this status quo, but it absolutely put all sorts of strings and conditions on Israeli economic and military behavior far greater than any restrictions on, say, our European allies. The “blank check” talking point is meant to deceive the public and keep voters ignorant of a wealth of details about the U.S.-Israel relationship. When a politician invokes the phrase, the public should wonder what else they are being deceived about. – Commentary Magazine

Iran

Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program. – Wall Street Journal

Mediators were working Monday to push the U.S. and Iran into a new ceasefire, fearful the two foes could settle into a pattern where they keep conflict below the level of all-out war but disrupt regional economies indefinitely and run the risk of a miscalculation that escalates the fighting. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon said Monday that nearly 100 U.S. troops have been injured in the war with Iran over the last two weeks, underscoring the significance of Tehran’s strikes on U.S. military installations across the region since negotiations to end the conflict collapsed. – Washington Post

The U.S. military said late on Monday it finished ​its latest round of strikes on Iran, saying it ‌hit Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, maritime capabilities and air defense systems. – Reuters

Iran expects to restore around 100 million cubic metres per day of natural gas production ​capacity within the coming months, a senior ‌government official said on Monday according to the oil ministry’s Shana news outlet. – Reuters

The French minister for foreign affairs said two officials from his country’s embassy in Iran were intimidated by security services on Sunday evening. The “extremely serious intimidation action by Iranian security services” was done “in flagrant violation of the diplomatic immunities they enjoy,” Jean-Noel Barrot said in a post on X Monday. – Bloomberg

A US official said Monday that Washington’s strikes against Iran were likely to continue, even as the sides negotiate a resolution to an ongoing dispute regarding control over the Strait of Hormuz, while US President Donald Trump threatened to make Tehran pay for the deaths of American servicemembers. – Times of Israel

Harlan Ullman writes: A mosaic defense has imperfections. Delegation of authority defeats central control. The possibility of miscalculation, unwanted escalation and the inability to control implementing a ceasefire or negotiation are complicated. Yet so far, Iran seems to be fighting the U.S. to a draw, despite its military inferiority. For the U.S. side, the best strategy to defeat this decentralized system has not yet emerged. More bombing does not seem to be the most effective action. Either way, unless the U.S. grasps the nature of the mosaic strategy, it cannot prevail. – The Hill

Mona Yacoubian writes: For now, both Washington and Tehran have doubled down on military escalation. While this return to war initially focused on breaking the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz—a challenge that didn’t exist before February 28—the escalation has unleashed a self-perpetuating dynamic of reprisals and retaliation. Each side is calculating that it can inflict enough pain on the other side to compel it to relent, a recipe for continuing war. Yet, although immediate off-ramps are apparent, the pain inflicted by both sides could contain the opening for a new path toward de-escalation. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Russia and Ukraine

Three Chinese nationals were injured during ​a Ukraine drone attack on Moscow, ‌Chinese state media said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Russian missile strike on a ship carrying corn near Ukraine’s southern ‌port of Odesa killed 10 people, Ukrainian officials said on Monday, in the deadliest attack in a weeks-long flare-up of violence in the Black Sea. – Reuters

An attack ​on a ship leaving ‌Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa on Sunday killed four Indians ​and left another ​in a critical condition in ⁠hospital, India’s foreign ministry ​said in a statement late ​on Monday. – Reuters

Russia on Monday accused Ukraine of killing ​five civilians, including a minor, in a ‌drone attack on a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region and said three other civilians were in ​hospital in a critical condition. – Reuters

Brady Africk writes: For Russia, these lessons are being learned late. Swaths of Crimea are without power, gas stations have long lines, and ferry crossings used by the Russian military are under attack. Even if Ukraine does not take back Crimea anytime soon, Kyiv is drawing Russian resources and focus to the peninsula. The U.S. military has already adopted and deployed successful Ukrainian offensive tactics and innovations, including new models of aerial and naval drones. But American operations in Iran have offered a disturbing preview of what can happen when air and naval facilities are insufficiently protected. Ukraine’s innovation in modern warfare has allowed the U.S. to see the future of the battlefield without suffering the same terrible cost. – Washington Post

Lebanon

Israel has battered the Lebanese militia Hezbollah over two years of fighting. Many Lebanese are turning against the militant group. And there is growing consensus in Beirut that Hezbollah must finally be forced to give up its weapons. But American, Israeli and Lebanese officials are finding there are no easy options to disarm the U.S.-designated terrorist group that is embedded in society and bound to its cause with religious zeal. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military said on Monday it had begun a pilot programme ​for safe zones in southern Lebanon in cooperation with U.S. and ‌Lebanese forces, in what a U.S. official called a step toward reasserting Lebanese state authority in the area. – Reuters

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday to present a plan on how to ​disarm Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and secure Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. – Reuters

Lebanese army troops began deploying in the southern Lebanese town of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh ​on Tuesday after Israeli forces withdrew from the area, a senior Lebanese security ‌official said, in line with a U.S.-brokered plan. – Reuters

The Lebanese army began preparations to take charge of security in three southern villages Monday, as a deal to eventually secure an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground. – Times of Israel

Yemen

The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen on Monday said it would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, in a move that threatened to open a new front in the regional war and further disrupt global energy supplies. – New York Times

A successful effort by Yemen’s Houthis to ​shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would strike at one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, potentially triggering a ‌fresh surge in crude prices, disrupting fuel supplies and adding to strains on the global economy. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia on Monday condemned what it described as allegations by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis that the kingdom ​was besieging the Yemeni people, after the group announced ‌it would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian air base that killed two U.S. servicemembers struck prefabricated housing units where troops lived and slept, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by an unknown projectile, forcing its crew ​to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat, the United Kingdom Maritime ‌Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted Amazon infrastructure in Bahrain, the terror group claimed on Monday. According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, Amazon’s central data infrastructure was targeted and destroyed by several cruise missiles. – Jerusalem Post

Iran claimed on Tuesday that it had targeted US missile and communications systems across three major US military bases in Kuwait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have targeted missile systems in Kuwait’s Camp Arifjan, a major US military base south of Kuwait City, with surface-to-surface missiles, Iranian state TV reported on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Mohammed Alsudairi, Andrea Ghiselli, and Aaron Glasserman write: As Gulf Arab states search for other ways to protect themselves, China’s interest in getting more actively involved in securing the region is further decreasing. Beijing can maintain valuable economic ties with even fewer risks of security entanglements. The Gulf-Chinese relationship is increasingly resembling the Iranian-Chinese relationship: it is becoming a partnership sustained by necessity rather than by rising expectations. The only upshot for Gulf Arab countries is that because they have more to offer China economically than Iran does, when the war ends they will still find themselves in a far more favorable dynamic with Beijing – Foreign Affairs

Korean Peninsula

South Korea has said it wants to establish a new semiconductor hub in its southwest within four years, but local opposition to the ​project’s massive power and water needs is set to be among its biggest obstacles. – Reuters

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held their third strategic dialogue in ​Moscow on Monday, North Korean state media KCNA said on Tuesday. – Reuters

North Korea’s trade with China jumped to its highest level since sweeping sanctions were imposed in 2017, as the neighbors move to restore ties after years of Pyongyang’s deepening partnership with Moscow. – Bloomberg

China

Beijing said it summoned the Philippine ambassador to China on Tuesday over an encounter a day earlier ​between the two countries in the Second Thomas Shoal, according ‌to a statement from its foreign ministry. – Reuters

Chinese authorities are considering tightening export controls on AI and semiconductor technologies, the Financial Times reported on ​Tuesday. The step reflects Beijing’s push to keep domestic AI at home ‌and show that China, like the U.S., now sees advanced AI as a critical national asset requiring controls. – Reuters

Allen Zhang writes: First, the White House should maintain the longstanding practice of arms sales to Taiwan—without consulting Beijing. The United States is the only arms supplier to the island, making American arms sales an integral part of Taiwan’s security. Washington should continue to approve and, most importantly, fulfill arms deals with Taiwan, which have, in recent years, painfully slowed. Second, the US Navy should continue naval transits in the Taiwan Strait. As Beijing ratchets up the tempo of air and naval incursions into Taiwanese airspace and the island’s territorial waters, American warships should routinely sail through to signal a visible presence. Should Beijing grow even more bellicose, Washington should consider expanding the scope of its transits and naval exercises in the region with partners like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines. Abandoning Taiwan is a misguided idea. Reagan understood that decades ago; conservatives, of all people, should not be the ones to forget. – National Interest

South Asia

In one of the biggest demonstrations to have faced Prime Minister Narendra Modi in years, thousands of people protested over a university entrance-exam scandal that has touched a chord with young Indians frustrated with their economic prospects. – Wall Street Journal

India said it ​had summoned a senior Russian diplomat ‌and expressed “grave concerns” after a missile strike killed four Indians on a Black Sea cargo ship that was leaving a ​Ukrainian port. – Reuters

The Delhi High Court on Tuesday allowed ​activist Sonam Wangchuk to be ‌shifted from a government hospital to a private hospital, after his wife ​petitioned the court alleging ​he was being held in “illegal detention”, ⁠legal news website Bar ​and Bench said. – Reuters

The Middle East crisis cast a shadow over a diplomatic gathering in Southeast Asia on Tuesday, where foreign ministers voiced serious concern over renewed hostilities that add to uncertainty in a region grappling to manage tensions and conflicts of its own. – Reuters

Pakistan and Bangladesh were forced to buy some of their most expensive liquefied natural gas shipments in years as the Middle East conflict chokes supply, straining government finances and prompting both countries to rethink their reliance on the super-chilled fuel. – Bloomberg

Asfandyar Mir writes: Until 2024, a near consensus in Washington held that because the United States needed strong ties with India to balance China, it would have to shut out Pakistan. Trump defied that logic and took a personal interest in the relationship with Islamabad. When the crisis came, that departure proved valuable. It might also prove instructive. If the last decade is any guide, future presidents will also benefit from flexibility as they deal with new and long-running conflicts. European security remains unsettled and the Red Sea a vulnerable chokepoint. Even in the best possible case, the situation in Iran and the Gulf will continue to be volatile. A broad portfolio of relationships with mediator states that do not fit the familiar rubric of friends and foes will help the United States navigate these challenges. Washington should still have allies and partners in the traditional sense. But maintaining order will also depend on states well outside that circle. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Japan said on Tuesday it had lodged a protest with China about ​live-fire drills it says were conducted in its exclusive economic zone, an ‌incident that could further strain relations between Asia’s top two economies. – Reuters

Taiwan will deliberately slow mobile internet speeds for the first time during annual civil defence drills in August, testing how citizens would communicate if bandwidth became scarce in emergencies ​ranging from disasters to a Chinese invasion. – Reuters

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has appointed Antonio Nafarrete as the new chief of the ​country’s armed forces, the defence ministry said on ‌Tuesday. Nafarrete served as Philippine Army chief before succeeding Romeo Brawner, who ended his three-year tenure as the country’s top military officer on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Philippine military on Monday accused China’s coast guard of allegedly injuring a Filipino sailor during an incident in a disputed shoal in the South China Sea. – Associated Press

Europe

The European Union wants to suspend penalties for companies that breach new rules aimed at curbing global warming, after the Trump administration and industry groups said they were too hard to comply with and could lead to energy shortages. – Wall Street Journal

Andy Burnham, the longtime mayor of Greater Manchester, Britain’s second-largest urban area, became Britain’s sixth prime minister in a decade Monday, taking charge of a Labour government that won power in a landslide two years ago but quickly lost the country’s confidence amid lingering economic malaise. – Washington Post

The death in Italy set off protests on Sunday night in Bologna, where hundreds of people demonstrated, some of whom waved Moroccan flags and hung a banner denouncing “police violence and racism.” – New York Times

British prosecutors on Monday charged a 28-year-old man with murder in connection with the death of Ann Widdecombe, a politician and reality television contestant whose body was found in her home this month. – New York Times

A Liberian-flagged vessel sailing from Egypt to Ukraine has been hit off Romania’s ​coast in an attack likely linked to Russia’s ‌war on Ukraine, Romanian President Nicusor Dan said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Hungary’s government announced an investigation Monday into a large foreign investment by Chinese automaker BYD negotiated by a former foreign minister who last week resigned from Parliament to take an executive position at the company. – Associated Press

The European Commission slapped Chinese e-commerce giant AliExpress with a record €550 million fine on Monday for failing to stop the sale of illegal and harmful products on its platform. – Politico

Jewish chess legend Judit Polgar on Monday turned down Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar’s offer to join his push to break with the Viktor Orban era as the country’s president. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: The new prime minister announced ex-defense secretary John Healey to run the treasury. Healey resigned from Starmer’s government this spring to protest the glacial pace at which the government has been increasing defense spending. With Healey now in charge of the country’s finances, Britain is more likely to deliver on its goal to spend 3 percent of GDP on defense. Burnham arrives in office with a net-negative approval rating, which is the norm in many Western democracies. It could be as many as three years before the U.K. holds new elections, and he has plenty of time to gain popularity. But the bond market also gets a vote, and the new prime minister could discover why no one has been able to keep the job for very long. – Washington Post

Gerard Baker writes: From all he has said as he prepared to take office, it seems Mr. Burnham wants more of the same. The “Manchesterism” Britain needs isn’t the municipal socialism he believes in. The city was the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, in which Britain led the world through the dynamism of its capitalist system. Its economic success wasn’t the result of bureaucrats dictating targets to managers but of entrepreneurs lightly burdened by taxes, willing to take risks for large rewards that led to prosperity for all. Don’t be surprised if the latest tenant of No. 10 is there on another short lease. – Wall Street Journal

Ilan Berman writes: All of which makes Serbia a useful force multiplier for U.S. priorities in the Middle East at a time when the Trump administration is actively questioning the commitment of many of its other continental partners. Last week’s launch of the strategic dialogue between Washington and Belgrade helps to advance all four fronts. What comes next, in terms of concrete deliverables on energy, strategic minerals, defense and regional partnerships, will determine whether the current opening translates into lasting strategic gains for the United States in the Western Balkans. – American Foreign Policy Council

Africa

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has endorsed former President Macky Sall’s candidacy to become the next United Nations secretary-general, the ​foreign ministry said on Monday, giving his predecessor crucial ​backing from his home country despite deep political ⁠divisions. – Reuters

Sao Tome and Principe President Carlos Vila Nova has won a second ​five-year term, according to preliminary results from the election commission ‌announced on Monday. – Reuters

South Africa’s opposition Democratic Alliance has proposed legislation to overhaul the governance of the Public Investment Corporation, saying the state asset manager’s latest leadership crisis ​shows the need to remove political influence over its board. – Reuters

Militants linked to al Qaeda and a Tuareg-led separatist group ambushed a military convoy in northern Mali over the weekend, ​and a source close to the rebels said more ‌than 50 soldiers and allied Russian fighters were killed and others taken hostage. – Reuters

US Ebola travel restrictions that require anyone who’s been in the Democratic Republic of Congo to wait three weeks to come to the US are hindering an economic pact between the two countries, Congo’s foreign minister said. – Bloomberg

Kenyan activists on Monday accused authorities of violating a court order from last month halting the setting up of an American-backed Ebola quarantine center after reports surfaced that Americans were being quarantined in the country. – Associated Press

The death toll in Congo’s Ebola outbreak has risen to at least 930, the country’s Ministry of Health said on Monday, with 37 new deaths reported in a 24-hour span Friday into Saturday, one of the highest totals. – Associated Press

The Americas

President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua said on Sunday that he would abolish his nation’s elections, a blatant move to further strengthen his and his wife’s authoritarian grip on the nation of seven million. – New York TImes

Former Brazilian lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, ​told Reuters on Monday that he received permanent U.S. residency, often ‌called a green card. – Reuters

Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro called Monday on his supporters to protect his government’s social and economic reforms and resist any efforts by the incoming administration to change the nation’s labor laws. – Associated Press

North America

President Trump imposed an additional 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada, including wine, hockey sticks and cement, the White House announced Monday. The White House said that the tariffs were a response to the country’s “discriminatory treatment of American products.” Some sectors and goods, including energy, potash and fish or critical minerals, will be exempt from the new tariffs, the White House said. – Wall Street Journal

Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was sentenced to life in prison Monday for his role as a top leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, the powerful and violent drug syndicate he ran for decades alongside Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration issued a report on Monday alleging that a multi-decade Cuban influence campaign in the United States has had “remarkable success” in infiltrating “the highest reaches of the U.S. government,” backing “left-wing terrorism on American soil” and turning “America against itself.” – Washington Post

Children in Haiti have reported being jailed for years without appearing before a judge, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Representative for ​Children and Armed Conflict Vanessa Frazier told a Security Council ‌meeting on Monday. – Reuters

The Canadian government said on Sunday ​it would deny entry to any foreigner who has been to Congo within the ‌past 21 days as part of new, temporary border measures to combat the spread of Ebola. – Reuters

The U.S. envoy to the United Nations said Monday that the U.S. government soon will move to stop violent gangs in Haiti from making money off social media posts. – Associated Press

United States

President Trump said Monday that Benjamin Netanyahu wouldn’t be arrested “in any way, shape or form” in the U.S., after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said he would explore whether the Israeli prime minister could be taken into custody by local authorities. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday aiming to identify and fix potential national security vulnerabilities by requiring defense contractors to screen their supply chains. – Washington Post

After New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said there was an “active conversation” among his staff about whether to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu when he arrives in September for the U.N. General Assembly, some Democrats were quick to condemn him. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

OpenAI and Anthropic executives are sounding the alarm about the rise of cheap AI, particularly powerful new models produced in China, suggesting they will lead to a “dystopian” AI future and present unacceptable security risks without regulation. – Wall Street Journal

New British premier Andy Burnham has named Kanishka Narayan as minister for artificial intelligence, promoting the role to attend the prime minister’s cabinet for the first time. – Bloomberg

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday a “significant” amount of data appeared to have been exposed in a cyberattack on ​a government-run diplomatic academy, as authorities examine potential involvement by ‌foreign state-backed hacking groups. – Reuters

China’s leading technology companies showcased hundreds of cutting-edge products at the World AI Conference in Shanghai — from advanced robotics to artificial intelligence systems. – Associated Press

Top Trump administration AI safety official Chris Fall has left after just three months on the job, according to a Commerce Department spokesperson. – Politico

Parmy Olson writes: The problem with that argument is that it could justify almost anything. Those building this frontier may insist they are the safe hands even as they race toward an endgame whose consequences are unknown. A recent Anthropic paper offers a preview: A swarm of nine Claude agents set loose on a safety problem outperformed the company’s human researchers, but it also cleverly worked out how to game the test’s measure of success. That suggests to me that a further erosion of human oversight could create genuine doubt about what “improvement” even is. The San Francisco protestors with cardboard signs might not fully know how AI works, but they do understand that a profound scientific decision about whether to push on regardless is being made on their behalf. And it is being left to people who have already decided the answer is “yes.” – Bloomberg

Defense

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to testify before lawmakers for the first time in more than two months to defend the Trump administration’s request for billions of dollars in additional money for the Iran war and address growing public skepticism about the course of the conflict. – Bloomberg

US defense contractors will have to map out critical supply chains to identify sources in adversary countries under a new White House order signed Monday. “It is battlefield preparation. If a missile system depends on a foreign-controlled supplier, the Department of War needs to know before the shooting starts,” Peter Navarro, a senior trade adviser to the president, told reporters. – Bloomberg

Democrats are planning a rolling protest of the renewed war in Iran this week with efforts to block a series of military policy and defense budget measures — potentially ruining the GOP’s dreams of legislative victories heading into the summer break. – Politico

The new organization that will oversee surface shipbuilding for the U.S. Navy and one Coast Guard program has reached its initial operational capability overseeing major surface ship and aircraft carrier construction, according to a July 16 memo obtained by USNI News. – USNI News

Editorial: The U.S. has been slow to adapt to the battlefield dominance of drones and cheap weapons, but the world’s most dynamic economy has the wit and technology to catch up if there’s enough political will. The biggest obstacle is Washington. Congress can’t even pass a temporary government budget, let alone the President’s proposed $350 billion for defense in a GOP reconciliation bill. Iran is adapting its missile attacks against the U.S. and our allies and socializing the lessons with its underwriters in Russia and China. The U.S. air defense shortage has been apparent for years in the Ukraine war. Fielding tens of thousands of value-brand Patriots would be a substantial advance for U.S. deterrence against enemies that are moving fast to defeat the current U.S. arsenal. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial:  Army procurement official Brent Ingraham recently observed that PAC-3s are still “hand-fabricated” and that car manufacturers employ more cutting-edge processes. Lockheed noticed that it was being put on notice, so it’s racing toward flight tests in 2028. Much credit for this progress goes to Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Emil Michael, the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. But the U.S. still has a long way to go to improve the speed and scale at which it deploys newer, cheaper systems and munitions. The lesson for the Pentagon is simple: Keep the competitions coming, keep the start-ups funded and keep the primes hungry for contracts. Monopsonies tolerate and even encourage inefficiencies like hand-assembled missiles. Market discipline is less forgiving. – Washington Post

W.J. Hennigan writes: We’re not far from the day when one state’s autonomous weapons will be capable of shooting at its adversary’s autonomous weapons. And once that possibility exists, there is a very real risk that it could happen by mistake, or by misunderstanding. As in the doomsday nuclear scenarios of the Cold War, the world could find itself in an escalatory exchange that could quickly spiral out of control — but this time with limited human oversight. The age of A.I. is already here. It’s up to humans to address how and when it can be used before machines dominate the battlefield. – New York Times