Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Dozens of rights experts and NGOs have asked the UN rights chief to intervene urgently to prevent the execution of an Iranian boxing champion sentenced to death over his role in 2019 protests. – Agence France-Presse

Iran would retaliate against any oil company unloading Iranian oil from a seized tanker, a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ navy said on Thursday, amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington. – Reuters

The US is sending additional warships and thousands of Marines to the Middle East to increase security in the wake of Iranian attempts to seize commercial ships there. – Associated Press

Iran’s offer to host a maritime event in October has been rejected after a proposal led by the U.S. to rescind the bid was approved in a vote at the UN shipping agency’s Council, an agency spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

Iran said the oil cargo of an Iranian-flagged supertanker seized by Indonesia last week does not belong to Tehran, Iranian state media reported on Friday. – Reuters

The return of the so-called morality police to the streets of major Iranian cities has brought back fear and stress for women who choose to ignore the requirement that they wear the hair-covering hijab. But it has also been met with resistance by men and women alike, while lawmakers have questioned the effectiveness of the hard-line approach to enforcing compliance. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Iranian retirees have renewed protests in several major cities across the country, reiterating calls for more social and economic freedoms, as well as regular adjustments to their pensions in line with inflation as the cost of living soars amid international sanctions. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

The European Union adopted new sanctions against Iran over its military support to Russia and Syria, the bloc said in a statement. – Bloomberg

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: The US will consider all of this a success if there are no new attacks on American troops in the region and if, come the IAEA conference in September, October and November, the agency reports that Iran has in fact frozen its nuclear progress. In the meantime, the EU will pray that before the October expiration date, at which point it and the Islamic Republic could escalate their conflict over ballistic missiles, a broader return to the 2015 nuclear deal and resolution of disputes will have transpired. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Clearly the regime is seeking to double down over the next months to crack down on dissent. This may be in preparation for an end to certain sanctions in October regarding military imports and exports. Iran may believe tensions are rising and it wants to crack down domestically before it faces a crisis elsewhere. – Jerusalem Post

Ruth Wasserman Lande writes: It is clear that the Iranian zeal for exporting its influence and impact on the region is being cleverly and patiently executed on multiple levels and in multiple arenas. This should be an absolute red flag for all countries in the region, including the Abraham Accords’ countries, and of course, the US and Europe, who seek regional stability for the sake of commerce, technological development, and trade. – Jerusalem Post

Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy writes: In the absence of such proof, the Gulf Arab nations and their other Middle Eastern counterparts should continue to lean on the United States. But the United States must reciprocate. By tangibly shoring up its security commitments in the Middle East and consistently objecting to Iran’s threats in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Washington can reinforce its military, diplomatic, and economic engagements with its Sunni Muslim allies to reassure them that the United States has not abandoned them. – Foreign Affairs

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Turkey on July 28 to hold talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, both leaders’ offices said late Thursday Netanyahu will be received a few days after Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who is expected on July 25, the Turkish presidency said. – Agence France-Presse

Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian man near a shrine in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, Palestinian health officials said, in the latest bloodshed in a cycle of violence that has gripped the region. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said efforts to reach consensus on a judicial overhaul bill were ongoing ahead of its expected approval by parliament next week after the law sparked protests and outrage at home and abroad. – Reuters

The Israeli military may arrest reservists who have pledged not to report for duty as part of protests at the government’s judicial overhaul plans, Army Radio reported on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded a crackdown. – Reuters

Palestinian security forces on Thursday arrested Sheikh Mustafa Abu Arra, a senior Hamas official in the West Bank, in yet another sign of mounting tensions between the Palestinian Authority and the Gaza-based Islamist groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s enemies are mistaken to think that US-Israel tensions mean the alliance between the countries is weakened, President Isaac Herzog said on Thursday, reflecting on his visit to the White House this week. – Jerusalem Post

Hundreds of Jewish pilgrims who arrived early Thursday morning in Nablus to worship at Joseph’s Tomb came under attack. The worshipers came to the compound in about 40 buses under Israel Defense Forces security, and during the prayer service disturbances developed in the area that included shooting at the forces, throwing explosive devices, and throwing stones and Molotov cocktails. – Ynet

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Likud’s Culture and Sports Minister Miki Zohar on Thursday posted on their social media pages a staged video showing Israeli ground troops in Lebanon asking for air support in the middle of battle – and the pilots in response ask them whether or not they support the coalition’s judicial reform. When the soldier does not respond, an explosion is seen on the ground, and a dying soldier then says: “My brothers, from right and left, don’t play politics in the army.” – Ynet

Israeli President Isaac Herzog, fresh from his address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, spoke to Jewish-American leaders in New York on Thursday night about concerns in the Biden administration over the fate of the government’s hugely divisive and unpopular judicial overhaul. – Haaretz

Leading U.S. senators from both parties introduced on Thursday legislation that would designate a special envoy and dedicate tens of millions of dollars to Israel’s regional normalization attempts. It could be the most significant legislation tied to Israel’s ongoing normalization efforts with other Middle Eastern countries. – Haaretz

Editorial: Leah Goldin rose to warm applause, a poignant moment that underscored Herzog’s message of hope. As he put it at the end of his address, “Israel’s first 75 years were rooted in an ancient dream. Let us base our next 75 years on hope – our shared hope – that we can heal our fractured world, as the closest of allies and friends.” – Jerusalem Post

Mark Regev writes: To help mitigate concerns about his Beijing visit, Netanyahu could consider adding an additional stop to his itinerary. Perhaps he could choose for the final leg of his trip one of the region’s staunch American allies. I can think of more than one pro-Western Asian capital where the Prime Minister would be a welcome guest. – Jerusalem Post

Lazar Berman writes: Ever the dogged optimist, Herzog will put his head down and keep pushing the sides to come to some agreement on judicial reform. And he has stayed upbeat on the future of US-Israel ties. But it may take more than positive cheer and symbolic meetings to change a reality that is growing more problematic with every passing week. – Times of Israel

Alvite Ningthoujam writes: Robust educational, cultural, and academic exchanges could also help boost mutual understanding of each other’s peoples, histories, and traditions. Further, regular strategic dialogues and consultations could prove beneficial. It is equally important that person-to-person connections be strengthened between the two sides. Israel and the aforementioned African countries possess the goodwill to make their ties as strong and comprehensive as they were in the past. – Algemeiner

Bassam Tawil writes: The next time Palestinians complain about minors being killed or injured while carrying out terror attacks against Israelis, it would be worthwhile recalling the scenes of children in the summer camps of the Gaza Strip, where the process to transform them into combatants begins. It is time for the international community, and above all human rights organizations, to hold Palestinian leaders accountable for the child abuse inherent in training their children to become “martyrs,” in the Jihad to kill Jews, and in trying to destroy the region’s only democratic nation. – Jewish News Syndicate

Iraq

Iraq expelled the Swedish ambassador on Thursday, hours after crowds of angry Iraqis stormed the Swedish Embassy in central Baghdad, scaling its walls and setting it on fire in protest against the expected public desecration of a Quran in Stockholm. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration condemned the embassy torching, but it may be out of its depth when it comes to the new tensions. Some Iraqis believe the Islamic Republic of Iran is driving events in Sweden and Iraq, stoking  a clash between champions of free speech and devout Muslims. – New York Sun

Less than a year after declaring he had left Iraqi politics, the unpredictable Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has reminded his rivals of the influence he still wields after his supporters stormed and torched the Swedish embassy in Baghdad. – Reuters

New fighter jets might not be on their way to Iraq, despite some recent rumblings sparked by local Pakistani news reports, but experts told Breaking Defense that Baghdad is looking to bolster its defense capabilities, focusing instead on land and border security. – Breaking Defense

Korean Peninsula

North Korea has not yet responded to the mystery surrounding a United States Army private’s  decision to flee across the inter-Korean border on Tuesday, and it may not ​comment on the case for days, or even months. – New York Times

A pink phone. A New York mission. Swedish diplomats. A North-South Korean hotline. The United States and reclusive North Korea have no diplomatic ties — but they still have ways to contact each other. – Associated Press

The United States on Thursday voiced mounting concern over Army Private Travis King, who dashed into North Korea two days ago, saying Pyongyang had a history of mistreating captured Americans. U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, in her first public comments on the case, said Washington was fully mobilized in trying to contact Pyongyang, including through United Nations communications channels. – Reuters

North Korea said on Thursday deployment of U.S. aircraft carriers, bombers or missile submarines in South Korea could meet criteria for its use of nuclear weapons, state media KCNA reported, citing the country’s defence minister, Kang Sun Nam. – Reuters

When U.S. soldier Travis King sprinted across the border into North Korea from the South this week, he disappeared into a North Korea where lingering COVID-19 concerns and restrictions have made the already secretive country more isolated than ever. During the pandemic North Korea stopped all international travel and most trade, built a lengthy border wall, and even shot some would-be unauthorised border crossers early in the outbreak. – Reuters

When a U.S. ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) surfaced for a rare visit to South Korea this week it was a blunt reminder that Washington always has nuclear-tipped missiles deployed within close striking distance of North Korea, analysts said. Having nuclear weapons out of sight in the seas off the Korean Peninsula was a potentially stronger deterrent to the North, according to some analysts, than installing them in South Korea, as Washington had done from 1958 to 1991. – Reuters

Victor Cha writes: The only silver lining from this apparent defection is that the North Koreans may eventually be compelled to have contact with the administration, which it has thus far been unwilling to do. The irony is that in the past, the United States insisted that the dialogue should be focused solely on securing the release of the detained American. Now, the Biden administration, which has been seeking to re-establish dialogue about the weapons programs, may use the opportunity to send a high-level official to talk about more than the individual’s release. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

South Asia

The tremendous promise of lithium, however, could frustrate Western efforts to squeeze the Taliban into changing its extremist ways. And with the United States absent from Afghanistan, it is Chinese companies that are now aggressively positioning themselves to reap a windfall from lithium here — and, in doing so, further tighten China’s grasp on much of the global supply chain for EV minerals. – Washington Post

India and Sri Lanka will conduct feasibility studies on petroleum line, land bridge connectivity between the countries, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday, after holding talks with the Sri Lankan president in New Delhi. – Reuters

Sadanand Dhume writes: India-Russia ties survived the end of the Cold War because it made sense for both countries, but flailing in Ukraine and drawing ever closer to Beijing has made Moscow a much less attractive partner for New Delhi. As Mr. Jacob wrote, “When Indians think of their strategic partnerships, Russia is referred to in the past tense and the United States in the future.” – Wall Street Journal

Europe

The Belarusian Defense Ministry said on Thursday that mercenaries from the Wagner group were training troops on the border with Poland, a statement that was likely to increase tensions in an area where fears of conflict are already high. – New York Times

The British government said Thursday that the European Union made a “regrettable choice of words” when it referred to the U.K.-run Falkland Islands as the Malvinas, the name preferred by Argentina. – Associated Press

The U.S. ambassador to North Macedonia defended a decision by her government to impose sanctions on a prominent local businessman, arguing Thursday that the action was taken to combat corruption and would ultimately help the Balkan country’s bid to join the European Union. – Associated Press

Poland’s security committee decided in a meeting on Wednesday to move military units to the country’s east due to the Wagner Group’s presence in Belarus, state-run news agency PAP quoted its secretary as saying on Friday. – Reuters

Editorial: If the Popular Party wins, it will be because it erected a big tent that can hold free-market centrists and some of the national-unity conservatives who drifted to the more conservative Vox party in previous elections. Mr. Feijoo may still need to form a coalition government with Vox, but with a strong plurality he could do so from a position of strength. It will be healthy development if a European center-right party can succeed with a strategy of conservative policies while still appealing to centrist voters. – Wall Street Journal

Lee Hockstader writes: The alliance gained more muscle in the Baltic region when Finland joined this spring and will be further bolstered by Sweden’s likely accession later this year. Nonetheless, Cavoli and his successors have their work cut out, and the urgency is clear. Without renewed resolve from Washington and major European capitals, the Kremlin is likely to regard NATO’s front-line states as tempting targets, and soft ones. – Washington Post

Tom Rogan writes: It will be interesting to see how Chinese state media responds to these comments. I suspect Beijing will issue an angry public repudiation of them. Regardless, Bonne is a very experienced diplomat who is known to have Macron’s ear. As such, his words on Thursday will be welcomed in the White House, Congress, and the Pentagon. They suggest that America’s oldest ally might not be a total lost cause on China, after all. – Washington Examiner

Stephen Blank writes: The failure to address these questions in Vilinus reveals that the self-satisfaction evinced by NATO during and after the summit is unjustified. The failure to grapple with these issues and offer Ukraine a clear path to NATO or commit to a decisive defeat of Russia will only encourage Putin in his delusions that Russia can somehow prevail and outlast the allied coalition. – The Hill

The Americas

A former director of Venezuelan military intelligence pleaded not guilty on Thursday to U.S. drug trafficking charges, after a more than 10-year effort by the Department of Justice to bring him to U.S. soil. – Reuters

The total of Bolivia’s confirmed lithium resources has increased 2 million tons to 23 million tons, the Andean country’s president said Thursday. The new estimate further cements Bolivia’s position as the country with the world’s biggest known deposits of lithium, which is in high demand for use in batteries. – Associated Press

The U.S. Navy leveraged air and surface drones throughout its two-week UNITAS 2023 naval exercise near Latin America, the first major event since service leadership announced the region would host the sea service’s second unmanned operations hub. – Defense News

Armando Ibarra writes: Finally, the U.S. government must ​recognize the Cuban pro-democracy movement as legitimate representatives of the Cuban people and support a binding referendum, with preconditions and under international supervision, making way for a democratic transition in Cuba. The China-Cuba axis will bring real dangers to our doorstep and give China irreversible leverage over the hemisphere. This requires the U.S. to take action before it’s too late. – The Hill