Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Yemen's Houthis claim deadly drone strike near U.S. Embassy office in Tel Aviv JPost’s Yonah Jeremy Bob: Israel's defense establishment in shock by Houthi Tel Aviv drone attack How Iran's Khamenei elevated a little-known moderate to the presidency WSJ Editorial: Biden gives Iran another sanctions break Washington Institute’s Omar Abu Layla: Iran’s evolving strategy in Eastern Syria Ukraine loses hard-won position near Dnipro River in the South Israel says strike kills elite Hezbollah unit field commander U.S. launches effort to stop Russia from arming Houthis with antiship missiles Iran's Houthi allies laugh off Biden's 'pathetic' move America’s allies in Middle East see some advantages in potential 2nd Trump presidency Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO James Stavridis: China and Russia are quietly building a NATO rival France races to head off ISIS-K threat to Paris OlympicsIn The News
Israel
One person was killed and eight others injured in an explosion after a drone attack claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi group on Tel Aviv early Friday, yards from the U.S. Embassy branch office, raising the prospect of all-out regional war. – Washington Post
World leaders are pushing for a cease-fire agreement. Protesters are taking to the streets across Israel. And families of hostages are pleading with their country’s leader to just make a deal for their release. The pressures are piling up on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his scheduled visit to Washington next week. – New York Times
The United Nations’ highest court is set to issue an advisory opinion Friday on the legal ramifications of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories, weighing in on one of the world’s most contentious issues at the request of the U.N. General Assembly. – Reuters
Israeli forces bombarded the Gaza Strip’s historic refugee camps in the centre of the enclave and struck Gaza City in the north on Thursday, killing at least 21 people, and tanks pushed deeper into Rafah in the south, health officials and residents said. – Reuters
Israeli officials are considering transferring control of Gaza’s Rafah border crossing to the European Union and Palestinians, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
An Israeli delegation taking part in talks to end the war in Gaza decided not to participate in late-stage negotiations this week, frustrating U.S. officials who believe an agreement is close, according to two people familiar with the situation. – Politico
Can Prime Minister Netanyahu get politics-obsessed America to ponder, at least for one Wednesday afternoon next week, a top foreign policy issue? Following President Trump’s triumphant Republican convention and competing with the drama of the Democrats convention next month will be a tough act. – New York Sun
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday overruled an order by his defense minister to build a field hospital in Israel to treat sick Gaza children, officials said. The decision was a new sign of divisions within Netanyahu’s ruling coalition over its handling of the war in Gaza in the face of persistent international criticism of the high civilian toll. – Agence France-Presse
FIFA has put off a decision on a Palestinian bid to suspend Israel from international soccer until after the Paris Olympics, saying both parties had requested more time to submit their positions. – Reuters
The US decision to sanction a former IDF soldier jailed for killing a Palestinian attacker in 2016 was politically motivated, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Thursday. – Times of Israel
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant instructed the military on Thursday to send out 3,000 draft orders to members of the Haredi community in three waves, starting next week. – Times of Israel
The commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s naval forces in the Gaza City region, Anas Murad, was killed in a recent drone strike, the Israel Defense Forces said Thursday. – Times of Israel
Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: The scary thing is not that the Houthis snuck one drone through to Tel Aviv. The scary thing is that this incident stunned the defense establishment, and they are nowhere closer to a plan to protect Israel’s citizens from future such occurrences. – Jerusalem Post
Lilac Sigan writes: One thing is truly unforgivable: The systematic defamation campaign that the axis of evil built to undermine Israel’s righteousness is based on one crucial figure – the number of deaths. From Hamas’s perspective, this number is supposed to be shocking enough to make people forget the horrors of the October 7 massacre, and the number was exaggerated even before it was arbitrarily multiplied by five by Israel-hating academics. – Jerusalem Post
Avi Issacharoff writes: However, it is important to caution that Hamas will not break and surrender soon. Its operatives will continue to fire at IDF soldiers and attempt to harm them as much as possible. While these incidents will become less frequent, they will not disappear entirely. There will be no “total victory” that forces Hamas and its members to surrender their weapons and capitulate, but there may already be significant achievements in the fight against the terrorist organization. This also presents an opportunity to finalize a hostage deal, particularly as Hamas needs a cease-fire more than ever – as long as the hostages can be brought home alive. – Ynet
Alexander Loengarov writes: Of course, efforts to address the problems facing Israelis and Palestinians on the ground are still paramount. Despite making headlines and convincing Israel to comply with certain provisional measures during the Gaza war, the ICJ’s proceedings are unlikely to have much effect on this primary mission. Advisory opinions like the one issued this week are nonbinding, and the United States would presumably veto any attempt to enforce judgments against Israel through the UNSC. Yet the debate surrounding how international courts engage with the Israeli-Palestinian question could easily exacerbate polarization worldwide if governments mishandle or ignore it. – Washington Institute
Steven A. Cook writes: Yet, Hamas’s October 2023 attack against Israel and Hezbollah’s ability to compromise the country’s sovereignty are making the case for Israelis that the withdrawals of the early 2000s have not brought Israel peace, but rather, the opposite. It is an argument that Israel’s right wing was making at the time. It is now more potent than ever. Analysts and policymakers should not be surprised if the future of Gaza and southern Lebanon looks eerily similar to the recent past. – Foreign Policy
Iran
When intelligence officials briefed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in May ahead of a snap presidential election, their report was grim […] That’s when Khamenei decided to plan a carefully orchestrated election, setting the stage for a little-known but trusted moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, to rise to the presidency in a race that would initially be dominated by hardliners. – Reuters
Reports of an alleged Iranian plot against Trump’s life could torpedo attempts by reformist President-elect Masud Pezeshkian to tone down Iran’s anti-West rhetoric, Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, told Radio Farda. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Editorial: Mr. Biden’s Middle East policy seems paralyzed, though the Oct. 7 massacre and its aftermath have changed everything. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, wrote a magazine article that went to print shortly before Oct. 7. “The region is quieter than it has been for decades,” he wrote. On Iran, he boasted, “We have enhanced deterrence, combined with diplomacy, to discourage further aggression.” Instead we got Iran-backed war and assaults on U.S. forces and commercial shipping. What will it take for Mr. Biden and his advisers to recognize their failure and change course? – Wall Street Journal
Patrick Clawson, Holly Dagres, and Saeid Golkar write: As for the nuclear program, Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons will continue regardless of elections and changing governments. The regime may push to sign another deal with the United States in order to obtain short-term relief from sanctions and other pressures, but its long-term drive toward weapons will persist. The only factor that might change this calculus is stronger outside pressure from the West; failing that, the regime will see no obstacles to eventual weaponization. – Washington Institute
Omar Abu Layla writes: With its growing influence, which has not only focused on military support for the Syrian regime but also continuous attempts at sectarian and cultural change through establishing cultural centers and promoting Shi’ism in Syrian society, Iran has become a major player that cannot be ignored in the Syrian issue, raising many questions about the future of the region and the balance of power within it. Monitoring Iran’s movements and tactics will remain essential to understanding the changing dynamics in Syria and the broader region, especially amid the ongoing challenges and tensions faced by international and regional powers involved in this complex conflict. – Washington Institute
Russia & Ukraine
Ukrainian troops have lost a hard-won position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near the southern city of Kherson, after months of bloody fighting to hold on to a piece of land in what some Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts have described as a futile operation. – New York Times
Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter falsely accused of spying, attended a Russian court Thursday for a closed-door hearing in an espionage trial that the U.S. government has described as a sham. – Wall Street Journal
Associates of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have discussed holding a phone call between the two leaders, according to two sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Britain added 11 new shipping sanctions under its Russia sanctions regime related to the war in Ukraine, an official notice showed on Thursday. – Reuters
Russia withdrew its last warship from Crimea this week. It left with a whimper, in contrast to the booms of Russia’s previous defeats in the region: to a Franco-British alliance in the Crimean War in 1855 and to a Nazi-led alliance in World War II in 1942. With no modern rendering of “The Charge of the Light Brigade,” Ukraine pulled off its victory in the Battle of the Black Sea with robot drones and cruise missiles. – New York Sun
In late June, a drone-footage video appeared on Russian-language social-media channels that showed three soldiers walking down a road. One of the soldiers is badly wounded by a strike from the drone and seems to signal to one of the other soldiers to shoot him in the head. That soldier unhesitatingly complies and then hurries further on. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob on July 18 signed an agreement on security cooperation and long-term support between their two countries. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The Russian Justice Ministry on July 18 added the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to its list of “undesirable organizations.” The Russian Prosecutor-General’s Office declared the Carnegie Endowment “undesirable” on July 1. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
George Barros writes: Any serious strategy to defeat Russia’s intensified offensives must remove all advantages freely granted to Moscow. Several North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, including the U.K. and France, support eliminating Russia’s sanctuary. It’s past time for Washington to allow Ukraine to strike back without restrictions. – Wall Street Journal
Hezbollah
Above ground, Rambam Health Care Campus treats the wounded from the fight in Gaza. Below ground, northern Israel’s leading hospital is preparing for what could be the country’s next war—an all-out conflict with Hezbollah. – Wall Street Journal
A field commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces was killed in an Israeli strike on south Lebanon, the Israeli military and two security sources said on Thursday, the latest senior member of the group to be killed in months of tit-for-tat strikes across the border with Israel. – Reuters
Police detained four suspects – three in Spain and one in Germany – as part of an investigation into the sale of drone parts to Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, Spanish police said on Thursday. – Reuters
Editorial: Hezbollah specifically not only stores weapons in residential buildings, it acts violently against opponents, and its military engagement in support of the Assad regime in Syria has led to increased instability and security threats within Lebanon itself – issues it did not question because, unlike Israel, it does not care about its own civilians. These are terrorists. Their actions perpetuate cycles of violence that result in widespread destruction, displacement, and suffering for civilian populations. Thereby, Israel needs to pick it up with PR. Otherwise, we may win the war but we’ll lose in the court of public opinion. – Jerusalem Post
Maariv writes: Over the past four decades, Hezbollah has demonstrated a remarkable ability to exploit regional instability and conflict. Whether during the US war on terror, the Arab Spring, or the tumultuous events of 2020, each round provided Hezbollah with new opportunities to expand its range of activity. – Jerusalem Post
Arabian Peninsula
One of the daughters of Dubai’s ruler announced her intent to seek a divorce in an Instagram post Wednesday, making Sheikha Mahra bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum the latest princess of the emirate to publicly counter the norms of her country — and of her father, the Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai. – Washington Post
Germany-based air taxi developer Lilium on Thursday clinched its biggest order yet in a deal for Saudi airline Saudia Group to purchase up to 100 of its all-electric flying shuttles, which are still in development. – Reuters
Sweden will phase out development aid to Iraq over the coming year, the government said on Wednesday, as it focuses on giving more effective support to fewer countries. – Reuters
Yemen
U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia might arm Houthi militants in Yemen with advanced antiship missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration’s support for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons. – Wall Street Journal
A vessel was hit by unknown projectiles 83 nautical miles southeast of Yemen’s Aden early on Friday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and British security firm Ambrey said. – Reuters
The Suez Canal’s annual revenue dropped by almost a quarter in its latest financial year as some shippers switched to alternative routes to avoid attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis in the Red Sea. Osama Rabie, the head of the Egyptian canal’s authority said on Thursday revenues fell to $7.2 billion in its 2023-24 financial year from $9.4 billion the year before. – Reuters
The Yemeni militia mounting a long-range campaign against Israel and commercial vessels accused of supporting the country as it wages war in Gaza has dismissed a new set of U.S. sanctions as effectively useless in comments shared with Newsweek. – Newsweek
Johnnie Carson, Alex Rondos, Susan Stigant, and Michael Woldemariam write: It is not too late to stabilize the Red Sea, but the window is closing as violence and state fragmentation spread and the influence of U.S. competitors expands. The United States and its partners must act to stop widening crises on land or risk chasing a current of further instability into one of the world’s most vital waterways. – Foreign Affairs
Middle East & North Africa
This week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee has brought the prospect of former President Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House into focus, and leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the principal U.S. allies in the Middle East, are calculating what it could mean for their domestic and regional agendas. There are perceived advantages for all the leaders, many of whom had warm relations with Mr. Trump. – New York Times
Tunisia kicked off its election season with a wave of arrests targeting rivals and critics of President Kais Saied, stirring fears of a barely-contested vote that would deal a hammer blow to what was once the Arab world’s most progressive democracy. – Bloomberg
The results of Syria’s parliamentary elections, announced Thursday, showed that President Bashar Assad’s Baath Party has won a majority of seats, as expected. – Associated Press
Joseph Nepomuceno writes: In Afghanistan, the Red Sea, and Jordan, U.S. servicemembers have died under Biden’s watch. In response to these tragedies, the president has not properly punished U.S. adversaries for their attacks on U.S. troops. The Gold Star families’ speech at the RNC is a powerful reminder that Biden cannot be relied upon to protect our troops or our interests. A stronger hand is needed. – Washington Examiner
Korean Peninsula
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un received Russian vice minister of defence Aleksey Krivoruchko and discussed the importance of the two countries’ militaries to unite more firmly to defend world peace and justice, KCNA news agency said on Friday. – Reuters
South Korea’s military said on Friday it had conducted a loudspeaker broadcast campaign directed at North Korea overnight in response to the launch of balloons by Pyongyang carrying trash aimed at the South. – Reuters
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited a major tourism site being constructed on the country’s eastern coast and discussed steps to open the zone by next year, state media reported Thursday, though the country still blocks visits by most foreign tourists. – Associated Press
She was one of Washington’s favorite “expert” yakkers, a familiar face and voice on internet and television panels, an authority on Korea, North and Sout […]Now Sue Mi Terry is free on a $500,000 bond, accused of having sold much of her expertise, and done much of her talking, on behalf of South Korea’s multi-tentacle National Intelligence Service in return for designer coats and handbags and thousands of dollars in cash. – New York Sun
China
Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly will meet with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on Friday for talks on bilateral relations and security issues, Ottawa said on Thursday. – Reuters
China’s Communist Party removed its former foreign and defence ministers, Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, from its Central Committee on Thursday during a meeting of its largest top decision-making body, state news agency Xinhua reported. – Reuters
Editorial: Mr. Xi instead insists on a Party-led model that has consolidated a larger share of the economy in state-owned firms, while launching regulatory crackdowns on private tech firms, among others. No wonder U.S. financial firms are paring back their Chinese ambitions. […]Mr. Xi’s state-led economic model appears to be running out of steam, and the important question is whether he’ll be willing to change course. There’s no evidence yet that he is. – Wall Street Journal
James Stavridis writes: NATO should be paying closer attention to the growing influence, economic and military capability, and ambition of the Shanghai group. It needs to undertake plenty of quiet diplomacy, high-level visits, joint military exercises and sharing of defense technology with the now-friendly countries China and Russia are targeting for membership. The SCO isn’t a legitimate rival to the transatlantic bloc yet, but if US and its allies aren’t careful, it could become one soon. – Bloomberg
Michael Schuman writes: Of course, unraveling the U.S.-led global order will take a lot more than a few offhand comments in a volatile presidential race. But by disparaging longtime partnerships with the world’s democracies, Trump is placing at risk the foundation of American primacy. His statement on Taiwan displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of American power, which is based not on aircraft carriers and nuclear warheads as much as on relationships built on trust. If Trump sacrifices that to domestic politics, U.S. superpower stature will be lost along with it. – The Atlantic
South Asia
Tens of thousands of Bangladeshi citizens took to the streets on Thursday, joining university students demanding an overhaul of how government jobs are distributed. – New York Times
The nominal president of military-ruled Myanmar is suffering from serious illnesses, state media reported on Friday, in a rare statement on the health of a key junta figure just weeks before an ongoing state of emergency expires. – Reuters
Hassan Zeb was in his car when two unidentified gunmen on a motorcycle opened fire and killed him in broad daylight. […]Zeb is the third reporter to be killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a restive region bordering Afghanistan that has witnessed rising militant attacks, in recent months. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Andy Mukherjee writes: Yet, no amount of additional fiscal resources will help in the presence of high tariff walls. The ongoing shift in global supply chains, triggered by the pandemic-era disruptions and a growing estrangement between Beijing and Washington, is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for New Delhi. But it won’t last forever. The time for a course correction is now. – Bloomberg
Asia
The United States opened an embassy in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu on Thursday, the latest U.S. move in a long-running competition with China for influence in the Asia Pacific region. – Reuters
Leaders of 18 Pacific island nations and areas agreed to an enhanced role of Japan in the region’s development while opposing any attempted coercive activity, in a joint declaration adopted at their summit Thursday, as Tokyo seeks greater engagement to counter China’s influence. – Associated Press
An Italian carrier strike group on its first deployment to the Indo-Pacific region will sail through the South China Sea to the Philippines after participating in war games with U.S. allies in Australia, a senior Italian navy official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who was a finalist to be Donald Trump’s running mate in the U.S. presidential campaign, said on Thursday he expected the U.S. would continue to support Taiwan under a Trump presidency. – Reuters
Taiwan must rely on itself for defence and is likely to keep increasing spending and modernising its military given the threat it faces from China, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Friday, responding to criticism from Donald Trump. – Reuters
Thailand’s government will meet next week with commercial banks and state agencies to investigate transactions allegedly used for weapons purchases by Myanmar’s junta, and urge tighter scrutiny, the foreign minister said on Thursday. – Reuters
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that he would convey Japan’s stance on foreign exchange at meetings of the Group of Twenty (G20) finance leaders to be held in Rio de Janeiro next week. – Reuters
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters said there needed to be “more diplomacy, more engagement, more compromise” to resolve the crisis in New Caledonia following sometimes violent protests that have been ongoing since May. – Reuters
Singapore directed social media platforms to block nearly 100 online accounts of exiled Chinese tycoon Guo Wengui over posts deemed detrimental to the interests of the city-state. […]Singapore has laws dealing with foreign interference, which came into force in 2022. – Bloomberg
Europe
In a vote for political calm and continuity that runs counter to current anti-incumbent trends, the European Union’s top official, Ursula von der Leyen, won a second term as president of the bloc’s executive branch. – Wall Street Journal
The coming U.S. presidential election, with the growing prospect of a return of Donald Trump to the White House, promises to have profound repercussions for Europe’s security, future trans-Atlantic relations and the conflict in Ukraine—changes with which European leaders are starting to grapple. […]At a meeting Thursday, European leaders from across the Continent discussed how Europe can muster the unity and military muscle to check Russian aggression and keep Ukraine afloat.- Wall Street Journal
The letter, which Orbán sent to European Council Chairman Charles Michel on July 12, outlines his assessment of meetings he held under the auspices of a self-declared “peace mission” that included trips this month to both Moscow and Beijing, visits he cast as an attempt to broker an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Those visits garnered major backlash among EU leaders, who rebuked Orbán for holding meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping without first consulting his European partners. – Associated Press
A Serbian police officer was killed and another wounded in a shootout on Thursday during a routine vehicle check near the Bosnian border, the government said, blaming neighbouring Kosovo for an act of “terrorism.” – Reuters
Slovakia and Hungary said they have stopped receiving oil from key supplier Lukoil (LKOH.MM), opens new tab after Ukraine imposed a ban last month on the transit of resources from the Russian energy company via its territory. – Reuters
Lithuania’s parliament on Thursday voted in favour of withdrawing from the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans the production, stockpiling, use and transfer of the weapons. […]”The problem is, Russia, in its aggression against Ukraine, is not adhering,” he added. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Volodymyr Zelenskiy at a meeting of his top ministers on Friday, a show of support for the Ukrainian leader who will welcome a new plan to try to disrupt Russia’s attempts to evade shipping sanctions. – Reuters
Joseph C. Sternberg writes: This has worked in the sense that no one now contemplates the state-against-state intra-European violence of the wars, excepting Russia. Europe doesn’t, however, appear to be erecting effective guardrails against other forms of political violence. The Continent still remains significantly less chaotic than it was 50 years ago. Will the relative peace last? – Wall Street Journal
Tom Rogan writes: Democratic governments are, of course, supposed to make decisions in the best interests of their people. It’s not up to Trump to set European policy, just as it shouldn’t be up to Europe to set U.S. policy. But it’s interesting to see how various governments are preparing for Trump’s return. Scholz’s government has the right to pursue whatever policy it sees fit. It just shouldn’t bet on retaining those economically beneficial U.S. military bases. – Washington Examiner
Dorka Takácsy writes: One of the key elements that give strength to the West’s system of alliances is soft power, which effectively boils down to reputation. The reputation of strong allies, acting with unity, then sticking to mutually agreed stances, is a pillar of deterrence too. Systematically undermining the alliance system’s image in the eyes of competitors and challengers, as Orbán is doing, erodes that deterrence. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
President Paul Kagame, who has dominated Rwanda’s politics since the 1994 genocide, won more than 99% of votes in this week’s general elections, the country’s electoral commission said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal
The United States will give an extra $203 million to help millions of civilians affected by the war in Sudan, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Thursday, calling on other nations to step up their aid. – Reuters
United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in a phone call with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, affirmed the UAE’s support for initiatives aiming at ending the crisis in Sudan, Emirati state news agency WAM reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Turkey and Niger agreed to boost cooperation on energy, mining, intelligence and defence, after the West African nation asked Western military personnel to leave and terminated the mining contracts of many Western countries. – Reuters
Turkey will send an exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia later this year to search for oil and gas as part of a hydrocarbon cooperation deal between two countries, Turkish energy ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
The African Development Bank said Thursday it had approved a $1 billion loan to South Africa’s state-owned rail and ports company, Transnet. […]South Africa has the most industrialized economy in Africa, but its deteriorating rail and ports are seen as significant barriers to foreign business investment and have strangled the efficiency of its export market. – Associated Press
Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Puntland wants the United Nations to reinstate an arms ban lifted seven months ago, saying easier access to weaponry is fueling clan conflict. – Bloomberg
The Americas
But U.S. officials are wary of what might happen if Maduro is not defeated. More than 7 million Venezuelans — about a quarter of the population — have already fled Maduro’s authoritarian rule in the past decade. Of those who remain, more than 1 in 3 tell pollsters that if Maduro remains president after the July 28 vote, they’ll consider leaving the country themselves. – Washington Post
Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino said Thursday that migrants entering Panama through the treacherous Darien Gap will only be sent back to their countries if they agree to do so, potentially diminishing the impact of stricter immigration enforcement Mulino had pushed. – Associated Press
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s security chief has been released from jail a day after he was arrested on charges of gender violence. […]Venezuela’s opposition has repeatedly denounced arrests and other moves by the authorities that they say are meant to harm its election campaign and prevent a fair election. – Reuters
Paraguay is negotiating with Brazil to buy six Embraer (EMBR3.SA), opens new tab Super Tucano A-29 fighter planes for $96 million as part of its efforts to fight drug trafficking, Defense Minister Oscar Gonzalez said on Thursday. – Reuters
Chile President Gabriel Boric canceled a trip to the Olympic Games this month after a spate of high-profile murders stunned one of Latin America’s safest nations, forcing the government into action. – Bloomberg
Roberto Patiño writes: Venezuelans are ready to mobilize for peaceful change on July 28. Their courage deserves unwavering support from the international community. The governments of President Biden and Mr. Lula must live up to their promises of defending democracy by ensuring that the will of the Venezuelan people is respected. Their success would be a resounding victory at a fragile global moment. The world is watching, and history will remember those who stood by the Venezuelan people in their fight. – New York Times
United States
The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions Thursday on a man from Sierra Leone for allegedly smuggling thousands of migrants from Asia and Africa into the United States. – Associated Press
Hong Kong’s reputation in Washington is too poor to anticipate any easing of policy pressure, the American Chamber of Commerce in the financial hub said after a visit to the US capital. – Bloomberg
The selection of Senator Vance as President Trump’s running mate is likely to energize the “realist” school of foreign policy and be seen as a setback to the hawkish neoconservatives that have played a leading role in the GOP for decades. Holding that American power should only be used within a narrowly defined national interest, this brand of statecraft seeks to quickly end the war in Ukraine, bolster support for Israel, and, most importantly, quell the threat of Communist China. – New York Sun
Eli Lake writes: There are still four months until the election—an eternity in politics, especially when you consider that more political news has happened in the last week than the last four years. If these polls turn out to be correct, Trump will not just win in November—he could win by a landslide. And he will have done it not by changing his position on immigration or softening his rhetoric or pandering to these voters. He will have done it by issuing a message of contempt toward the elites who claim to speak for them. – The Free Press
Rachel Kleinfeld writes: On Saturday, the United States avoided the assassination of its leading presidential candidate. But it was through sheer luck: the 20-year-old shooter missed Trump’s skull by less than an inch. The country may not be as lucky the next time around, and the results could be catastrophic. When a 19-year-old in Sarajevo killed Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, a deeply divided world descended into war. The tinder is laid in the United States, and it is bone dry. Americans need to take lessons from other countries to stop it from igniting. – Foreign Affairs
Cybersecurity
A global tech outage was disrupting operations in multiple industries on Friday, with airlines halting flights, some broadcasters off-air and everything from banking to healthcare hit by system problems. – Reuters
In Ukraine, a handful of startups are developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems to help fly a vast fleet of drones, taking warfare into uncharted territory as combatants race to gain a technological edge in battle. – Reuters
National Cyber Director Harry Coker said one of his top goals is to push “federal coherence” — collaborating with and uniting other parts of the federal government, and serving in a role that didn’t exist before Congress created his office more than three years ago and the Biden administration built it up into an approximately 80-person organization. – CyberScoop
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on Wednesday published a supplemental manual to its infrastructure resilience planning framework, which provides guidance on how local governments and the private sector can work together to improve the security and resilience of the nation’s critical infrastructure. – StateScoop
A newly identified group is targeting “high-profile” government and private sector organizations, mostly in the Asia-Pacific region, in a suspected cyberespionage campaign, researchers say. – The Record
Former President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyenhas pledged to set out a plan to tackle ransomware attacks against healthcare providers within the first 100 days of her second term if re-elected. – The Record
At least $230 million worth of cryptocurrency was stolen from an India-based cryptocurrency platform named WazirX on Wednesday night. – The Record
Cryptocurrency experts and law enforcement agencies across six countries worked together to shut down scam networks that made more than $1 billion from “approval phishing” scams — where hackers trick people into allowing them to spend tokens inside a victim’s crypto wallet. – The Record
Anthony De Luca-Baratta writes: This proposed framework is meant to get the ball rolling on tackling the AI alignment problem. While it leaves out some key details, the direction it proposes is sound. Policymakers in both the United States and China need to begin prioritizing this problem now in their spending, regulatory, and diplomatic strategies. The cat is out of the bag, and the clock is ticking. – The National Interest
Sam Bresnick writes: For U.S. policymakers, these discussions offer evidence that portions of China’s military AI community are both aware of and concerned about the trustworthy and responsible development and use of AI-enabled military systems. Understanding the arguments Chinese defense experts are making about AI risks could help U.S. officials identify and build on areas of common ground regarding the responsible use of such systems. These shared concerns could form the basis of future discussions and, potentially, lead to bilateral cooperation to mitigate risks surrounding the safe development and use of such systems. – Foreign Policy
Defense
Two-and-a-half years after Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to overhaul Germany’s military, his government’s proposed budget for 2025 calls for only a modest increase in defense spending. – New York Times
A U.S. Navy Standard Missile-6, guided by the U.S. Army’s new missile defense radar and command and control system, intercepted a target in a recent test during Valiant Shield 24 in the Indo-Pacific, Raytheon announced in a July 18 statement. – Defense News
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the University of Texas at Austin announced Thursday a $1.4 billion, five-year partnership to establish the first U.S. hub for advanced microelectronics manufacturing. – Defense News
Karl-Heinz Kamp writes: However, when addressing nuclear strategy issues in politics and society, it is important that knowledge transfer is not misunderstood as nuclear indoctrination, but that the strengths and weaknesses of a security policy based on deterrence are openly identified. Nuclear deterrence is a partly contradictory concept that raises painful political or ethical questions. Addressing these openly and self-critically, even when conclusive and universally satisfactory answers cannot be found, is also part of the nuclear IQ. – Defense News
BJ Armstrong writes: With the mission of the U.S. Navy including both economic prosperity and peacetime interests, the U.S. government must find a way to develop collaboration between the interests represented in the new mission, bringing together those that contribute to both security and prosperity. Using the insights of the past to help us ask the right questions about the development of naval policy and maritime strategy for the present, Mahan offers us an old idea to think about in a new context. – War on the Rocks
Peter Suciu writes: General Dynamics Land Systems has delivered the first M10 Booker Combat Vehicles to the U.S. Army, marking the start of low-rate initial production. Named in honor of two fallen soldiers, the M10 Booker, previously known as the Mobile Protected Firepower Vehicle, aims to enhance the Army’s combat capabilities. – The National Interest
Maya Carlin writes: The South Korean K2 Black Panther main battle tank (MBT) stands out as one of the most advanced armored vehicles globally, rivaling Western counterparts like the M1 Abrams, Leopard 2, and Challenger 2. Some experts have called this tank the best on Earth, although not all agree. – The National Interest
Long War
Ahead of the Paris Olympics that begin on July 26, French security services have been racing to address an intelligence blind spot and forge deeper ties with Tajiks and other Central Asians in the country, according to more than a dozen people with knowledge of the drive. They include current and former intelligence officials, police, diplomats and Central Asian migrants who have been contacted by authorities. – Reuters
French police arrested on Friday a man on terrorism charges accused of trying to murder a taxi driver with a knife while expressing support for Palestinian militant group Hamas, a source at the terrorism prosecutor’s office said. – Reuters
The three gunmen who shot and killed six people at a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in Oman in an attack claimed by Islamic State this week were all Omani nationals, police said on Thursday. – Reuters
An attack on a Shiite mosque in the capital this week that killed five worshippers shook that image and underscored the radical Islamic State group’s strategy of striking far and wide years after its defeat in Iraq and Syria. – Associated Press
On Thursday, 34-year-old Benjamin Carpenter was sentenced to 20 years of prison followed by supervised release for attempting to provide material support to the ISIS, in connection with attempts to help the terrorist group by translating ISIS propaganda. – Jerusalem Post