Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The head of the United Nations’ atomic agency is preparing to step down early, potentially kicking off a fight for control of the agency that has oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, diplomats said. – Wall Street Journal

Each case is different, but all share the backdrop of an escalating confrontation between Iran and the United States, and fury among hard-line Iranian conservatives over what they see as Europe’s subservience to America. The United States has long contended, since the Tehran hostage crisis four decades ago, that the Iranians use foreign prisoners as pawns for political leverage. Rights advocates say the prisoners are plunged into a judicial system that is mysterious and arbitrary. – New York Times

The U.S. “shot itself in the foot” by pulling out of the nuclear accord with Iran, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said, offering a grim outlook for the chance of opening talks with President Donald Trump. – Bloomberg

Iranians feeling the squeeze from U.S. sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic’s ailing economy are increasingly turning to such digital currencies as Bitcoin to make money, prompting alarm in and out of the country. – Associated Press

The U.S. is tightly limiting travel by Iranian officials visiting or assigned to the United Nations, sparking concern from the world body. – Associated Press

Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday that his country has no choice but to manufacture missiles for defense purposes — comments that come after a remark by the top diplomat that seemed to suggest the missiles could be up for negotiations. – Associated Press

As Iran weighs the merits of talks with the U.S. and tensions remain high in the Persian Gulf, the Islamic Republic’s leadership is preparing for a second Donald Trump term and mindful of how two key countries fared in high-stakes negotiations with him: Mexico and North Korea. – Bloomberg

Over a round of golf this past weekend, Sen. Rand Paul asked President Donald Trump’s blessing for a sensitive diplomatic mission. Paul proposed sitting down with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to extend a fresh olive branch on the president’s behalf, according to four U.S. officials. – Politico

Jailed British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been transferred from prison to a hospital psychiatric ward, the campaign group seeking to free her said on Wednesday. – Reuters

US officials say they are unsure whether an oil tanker towed into Iranian waters was seized by Iran or rescued after facing mechanical faults as Tehran asserts, creating a mystery at sea at a time of high tension in the Gulf. – Reuters

Eli Lake writes: Kerry’s efforts did not save the Iran deal, nor did they deter Trump from canceling the waivers that allowed Iran to sell some of its oil. Now Zarif has an opportunity to make his case for negotiations with someone who plays golf with Trump, as opposed to a Democratic former secretary of state who has been the target of Trump’s tweets. There’s no doubt that Paul, a libertarian who has opposed U.S. interventions since he became a senator, is sincere when he talks about trying to prevent a war with Iran. His interlocutor, however, has a reputation for insincerity. The senator from Kentucky should be prepared to be charmed — and conned. – Bloomberg

Turkey

Gunmen killed a Turkish diplomat and an Iraqi man during lunchtime at a restaurant in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil on Wednesday, a rare outburst of violence in the capital of the country’s semiautonomous Kurdish region. – Washington Post

The United States is removing Turkey from an F-35 fighter jet program in response to Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system, the first components of which landed in Turkey last week. The purchase was opposed by the Pentagon, and Washington long warned that if Turkey were to acquire the Russian system, the United States may impose harsh economic sanctions and revoke Turkey’s participation in U.S. military programs. – Washington Post

For some U.S. officials, the Trump administration’s failure to persuade Turkey not to buy a Russian air defense system may have its roots in a coup attempt against President Tayyip Erdogan three years ago this week. – Reuters

President Donald Trump declined Tuesday to criticize Turkey’s acquisition of a Russian missile system assailed by the Pentagon and NATO, making no mention of sanctions Washington had threatened over the purchase. – Agence France–Presse

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday sought to downplay the disagreement between Turkey and NATO over Ankara’s decision to purchase a Russian-made missile defense system, insisting that the fracture does not suggest Turkey is turning away from the west and towards Russia. – Defense One

Turkey is being excised from the F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighter program, and the U.S. will pay an estimated $500 to 600 million to retool the program in the aftermath, the Defense Department’s acquisition chief told reporters on Wednesday. – USNI News

The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded to the United States’ decision to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program, saying it is ‘not fair,’ and will harm strategic ties between two NATO allies. The decision to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program was announced by the US on Wednesday, a move that had been long threatened and expected after Ankara began accepting delivery of an advanced Russian missile defense system last week. – Reuters

In a July 8, 2019 column titled “Stopping Western Civilization” published in the Turkish pro-government Milli Gazete daily, Turkish columnist Mehmed Şevket Eygi asked readers: “Can we allow Western civilization to destroy the world and humanity?” He said that the West was “a civilization not of peace, but of war” and that it was “colonialist, imperialist, extremely capitalist, selfish, and hedonist.” He warned that “if the West is not blocked, if no one hits the breaks, humanity will collapse. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Editorial: Clearly, Turkey cannot have both the F-35 and the S-400, and Mr. Erdogan must accept that. If Mr. Erdogan persists in deploying the S-400, he will lose the plane. But Mr. Trump should strive to avoid a wider breakdown with Turkey. A serious crisis might propel Mr. Erdogan even more into the embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who would like nothing better. Turkey borders Syria and Iraq, and its cooperation with the United States is vital in the region; it hosts extensive NATO infrastructure, as well as U.S. nuclear weapons. This is a knotty problem, in the late stages of metastasis, but a wider crisis should be avoided. – Washington Post

Middle East & North Africa

The House sent President Trump a trio of resolutions Wednesday aimed at blocking arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, joining the Senate in disapproving of administration ties to the Gulf nations but setting up a likely presidential veto. – Wall Street Journal

The United States is sending hundreds of troops to Saudi Arabia in what is intended as the latest show of force toward Iran, two Defense Department officials said Wednesday. – New York Times

U.S. officials will speak to members of the Washington diplomatic corps on Friday about a new initiative to promote freedom of navigation and maritime security around the Strait of Hormuz, the State Department said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Mohamed Maher and Irina Tsukerman write: Nevertheless, the core issue driving the enmity between these two nations stems from Turkish support for the Muslim Brotherhood and remains a problem unlikely to be solved through mediation. Egypt sees Erdogan’s party and the Muslim Brotherhood as essentially two sides of the same coin, while Erdogan sees Sisi’s coup as potentially replicable in Turkey, especially after the failed coup attempt in 2016. President Trump’s recent announcement that he supported designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, along with recent congressional discussion on the matter, will likely put more pressure on Turkey in this regard. Where that pressure leads, however, remains to be seen. – Washington Institute

China

Progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal has stalled while the Trump administration determines how to address Beijing’s demands that it ease restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co., people familiar with the talks said. – Wall Street Journal

A Chinese-Australian writer detained in Beijing since January was charged on Thursday and moved to a different detention center in the Chinese capital, his lawyer said. Australian lawyer Rob Stary said he had been told by Yang Hengjun’s family and friends of the charge and was seeking confirmation from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. – Associated Press

China is stepping up efforts to defend a security crackdown on ethnic Muslim minorities, as the U.S. leads efforts to highlight mass detentions and other alleged abuses. – Bloomberg

The United States and China still have to work through major issues to reach any trade agreement, including intellectual property theft, structural reforms and subsidies, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday. – Reuters

Mihir Sharma writes: That’s the basic imbalance underlying the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s big push into the developing world. […]It’s time for the West to step up. China must be pressured to make its BRI lending more transparent and to follow global norms governing infrastructure finance. But, more importantly, we should all prepare to provide support, material and moral, to countries that want and need to renegotiate terms with China. Standing aside while Beijing corrals resources from the world’s poorest cannot be an option. – Bloomberg

Asia

American forces took part in a major amphibious landing and practice assault off Australia’s northeast coast on Wednesday in stepped-up drills as China modernizes its military to project power far from its shores. – Wall Street Journal

President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines wants President Trump to park the Navy’s 7th Fleet on China’s doorstep in response to ongoing tensions in the Pacific. – Washington Examiner

There is increasing evidence to show that Asia’s economies are being hit by the US-China trade war. […]But analysts say if the US’s anti-free trade trend continues and hits more of Asia’s economies, that could hurt the region’s long term potential growth rate – in turn hurting the rest of us. – BBC

Cambodia announced that it will send 1,600 tonnes of plastic waste back to the U.S. and Canada, becoming the latest Southeast Asian country join the backlash against taking in the developed world’s trash. – TIME

Chinese officials in charge of Hong Kong affairs are working on an urgent strategy to solve the city’s political chaos and have ruled out the use of military force, the South China Morning Post reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the discussions. – Bloomberg

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces a tough diplomatic challenge from an expected U.S. request to send its navy to join a military coalition to safeguard strategic waters off Iran and Yemen. – Reuters

Michael Mazza writes: The past two years have seen continued advances in US-Taiwan relations, despite fears that the Trump administration would use Taiwan as bargaining chip in US-China relations. A joint agenda for the relationship would help ensure that bilateral ties continue to deepen in the years ahead. – Global Taiwan Institute

Yasmeen Serhan writes: But for perhaps no country is this more personal than Britain. As Hong Kong’s former colonial power, Britain played a primary role in the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty more than two decades ago. It’s also a signatory to the agreement guaranteeing Hong Kong’s limited autonomy from Beijing—a status protesters fear is now under threat. But the political impasse over Brexit is dominating British political discourse, ensuring that issues like Hong Kong remain in the foreign-policy periphery. – The Atlantic

Europe

British police said the brother of the Manchester Arena suicide bomber had been extradited to the U.K. to face charges of murder in the 2017 terrorist attack that killed 22 people. – Wall Street Journal

The list of front-runners to succeed Christine Lagarde as head of the International Monetary Fund has narrowed to four eurozone officials, according to several senior European officials. – Wall Street Journal

France’s finance minister said he shared the Trump administration’s concerns about Facebook Inc. ’s plan for its cryptocurrency, but suggested a gulf remains between Europe and the U.S. on how to tax the profits of the biggest tech companies. – Wall Street Journal

The UK will have to “face the consequences” if it opts to leave without a deal, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has said. – BBC

Ukraine said on Wednesday a rebel who organized the trailer carrying the missile that shot down a Malaysian airliner in 2014 had been captured two years ago and was now serving a sentence in Ukraine. – Reuters

Heather A. Conley and Matthew Melino write: President Trump formally requested Senate ratification on April 30. In his letter, President Trump praised North Macedonia as “a steadfast security partner of the United States, and its NATO membership will directly benefit United States strategic interests and the NATO Alliance.” It is hoped that the Senate will complete the ratification process in July or no later than September. If the U.S. ratification process is delayed beyond 2019, it would greatly complicate the upcoming December 3-4 NATO leaders meeting in London and fuel doubts about U.S. support for NATO and its enlargement. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

United States

The Pentagon will send an additional 1,100 active-duty troops and 1,000 members of the Texas National Guard to assist in securing the United States border with Mexico, the Defense Department announced on Wednesday, in a move that would significantly expand the American military presence there. – New York Times

Switzerland has agreed to extradite a Chinese researcher to the United States where prosecutors have charged him with helping his scientist sister steal secrets allegedly worth $550 million from British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has made religious freedom a centerpiece of his foreign policy, met on Wednesday with victims of religious persecution from countries like China, Turkey, North Korea, Iran and Myanmar. – Reuters

Editorial: State’s emphasis on religious freedom is timely. […]The hope is that the new alliance’s high profile might do for religious liberty what has been done for human trafficking. One goal is to promote similar discussions within countries to advance religious freedom. Think of it as a credible version of the U.N. Human Rights Council, without human-rights abusers like Cuba and China. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Suspected nation-state hackers from Russia, Iran and elsewhere have launched nearly 800 cyberattacks against political organizations over the past year that have been detected by Microsoft Corp. , with the vast majority of the attempts targeting groups based in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

The Democratic National Committee on Wednesday warned presidential campaigns against using the viral face-transforming FaceApp, citing the software’s Russian developers. It urged campaign staff to “delete the app immediately.” – Washington Post

Poland has proposed tightening its cyber security standards and could ban certain products or suppliers from key parts of a future 5G network, the country’s digital ministry said in a document published on Wednesday. – Reuters

Chinese telecoms equipment group Huawei Technologies criticised the Italian government’s newly beefed-up powers to intervene in the development of fifth-generation (5G) telecom services, saying they discriminated against the company. – Reuters

The Senate passed legislation on Wednesday night that would make it a federal crime to hack into any voting systems used in a federal election. – The Hill