Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iranian ships attempted to impede the passage of a U.K.-flagged commercial vessel through the Persian Gulf, the British Defense Ministry said Thursday, a move that threatens to escalate already high tensions in the region. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump made fresh threats to ramp up U.S. sanctions against Iran for stepping up its enrichment of uranium, tweeting that America’s response “will soon be increased, substantially.” – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has denied British allegations of a confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, saying if it had received orders to seize any ships it would have executed them immediately. – Associated Press

Britain’s claim that Iran tried to stop one of their oil tankers in the Gulf on Wednesday is worthless, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Thursday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. – Reuters

The British navy intervened to stop Iran from blocking a commercial oil tanker leaving the Persian Gulf, heightening friction just as European nations scramble to salvage a landmark nuclear accord. Oil rose. – Bloomberg

The State Department said Wednesday it has terminated support for an online project aimed at fighting Iranian disinformation after it tweeted harsh criticism of individual human rights workers, academics and journalists, some of whom are U.S. citizens. – Associated Press

The United States admonished world powers seeking to preserve a deal with Iran on its atomic program on Wednesday not to give in to “nuclear extortion” from Tehran, which has breached the pact’s limitations in recent days in an attempt to get them to provide economic incentives to offset American sanctions. – Associated Press

Iran intends to preserve the nuclear deal with major powers if all parties fulfill their obligations under it, its ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear body told a German newspaper in an interview published on Wednesday. – Reuters

All Iran’s nuclear activities are monitored by the U.N. atomic watchdog policing its nuclear deal with major powers, its ambassador to the watchdog said on Wednesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said it was secretly enriching uranium. – Reuters

An emergency meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Wednesday, held at Washington’s request to weigh Tehran’s breach of a nuclear deal, did not produce any results for America, Iran’s ambassador to the body said on Thursday, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). – Reuters

Dennis Ross writes: The Trump administration has no real answer to Iranian maximum pressure and clearly does not want conflict. That might be enough to persuade Trump to accept such an understanding. In Japan, Trump conveyed his basic instinct on Iran, saying he was not interested in regime change, just “no nukes.” Trump’s only real criterion is doing better than Barack Obama, and that probably means extending the sunset provision on the limits on Iranian enrichment for another 10 to 15 years, out to 2040 or 2045. But the Iranians won’t make such a concession for nothing; they would likely demand the end not just of the sanctions imposed to constrict Iran’s nuclear activity, but of the broader array of sanctions. – The Atlantic

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Frank Pabian, and Jack Toole write: The Trump administration should no longer grant a waiver for stable isotope separation work at the Fordow facility given Iran’s recent threats to increase enrichment. This waiver legitimizes a facility that should not operate, given its connections to Iran’s former nuclear weapons program. Instead, a priority should be investigating its origins. The United States can reinstate the waiver if the stable isotope production work is moved to the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, where it should have been in the first place. – Institute for Science and International Security

Zak Doffman writes: In his F35 video, Netanyahu was responding publicly to the threat made a week earlier by Mojtaba Zolnour, head of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, that “if the U.S. attacks Iran, Israel will have only half an hour left to live.” […]Iran’s breach remains well below weapons-grade enrichment, but the direction of travel is sending a message. And that message has been received. And so the cyber conflict is now well underway. – Forbes

Turkey

Turkey said on Wednesday it rejected Greek and European Union assertions that Turkish drilling for gas and oil off Cyprus was illegitimate, and said they showed the EU could not be an impartial mediator on the Cyprus problem. – Reuters

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan risks pushing Turkey’s economy into an economic collapse similar to those seen in Latin America under populist regimes, according to Ashmore Group Plc. – Bloomberg

Kerim Has writes: With delivery of the Russian S-400 air defense system to Turkey looming, a new crisis in U.S.-Turkey relations is slowly emerging. While it is obvious that Turkey needs a new air and missile defense system given the security risks in its region, it remains unclear why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to acquire the capability from a historical rival and potential adversary instead of through NATO. This decision will likely have major consequences for Turkey and its future geopolitical orientation. – Middle East Institute

Saudi Arabia

After the killing in October of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, a handful of lobbying firms and think tanks made a move rare in Washington: They publicly severed ties with Saudi Arabia, swearing off the kingdom’s money. But nine months later, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to influence U.S. policy continue unabated — bolstered by President Trump’s embrace of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite a recent United Nations report that the prince was complicit in the grisly killing and dismemberment of the Washington Post contributing columnist and political dissident. – Washington Post

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Republican chairman, Senator Jim Risch, introduced legislation on Wednesday punishing Saudi Arabia over human rights abuses and criticizing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but not halting weapons sales. – Reuters

Nine months after the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Congress remains at a loss for how to hold Saudi Arabia accountable. – Politico

Josh Rogin writes: There is a broad, bipartisan consensus in Congress that action must be taken to reset the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia, but there’s no consensus on how to do it. […]The U.S.-Saudi relationship has been spiraling downward since Saudi agents murdered Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi in their Istanbul Consulate last October. – Washington Post

Korean Peninsula

A contentious accusation underpins a trade dispute between Japan and South Korea: Chemicals and equipment bought by South Korean companies from Japan may be helping North Korea build weapons of mass destruction. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea is seeking U.S. help in a bitter diplomatic row with fellow American ally Japan over its moves to tighten controls on high-tech exports. – Associated Press

South Korea’s acquisition of American F-35 stealth fighter jets will force North Korea to develop and test “special armaments” to destroy the new weapons, North Korea’s state media said on Thursday, citing a government researcher. – Reuters

Asia

The killings were the latest in a series of retaliatory Taliban attacks against the families and homes of Afghan soldiers and police officers. They have continued even as American and Taliban negotiators have reported progress in talks aimed at reaching a lasting peace agreement. – New York Times

The sprawling, multibillion-dollar Malaysian development fraud scandal that has toppled a prime minister and stretched from Hollywood to Wall Street is threatening to implicate another major global financial institution: Deutsche Bank. The U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether the German lender violated foreign corruption or anti-money-laundering laws in its work for the 1Malaysia Development Bhd. fund[…] – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. peace envoy to Afghanistan is in Beijing for a previously scheduled meeting, an American Embassy spokesman said Thursday, as indications grew of a new momentum in efforts to end Afghanistan’s 18-year war and push by China to boost its influence in the region. – Associated Press

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s apologies and explanations for a doomed extradition bill have failed to quell political tension and her departure is now seen by many in the Chinese-ruled city as merely a matter of time in a drawn-out, long goodbye. – Reuters

Trump administration officials signaled support for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong — and defiance toward the Chinese government — by granting a series of high-level meetings this week to a Hong Kong publisher who has drawn Beijing’s ire. – Bloomberg

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen departed Thursday for a four-country state visit to the Caribbean with stops in the United States on the way there and back. – Associated Press

Singapore authorities said on Wednesday they had arrested a group of Myanmar nationals accused of rallying support for armed violence against the Myanmar government. – Reuters

Philippine security forces confirmed Wednesday the first Filipino “suicide bomber” attack in the Asian country, warning Islamic militants were grooming other local prospects for more such actions in the future. – Agence France–Presse

As the United States looks to shore up its partnerships with nations within the Indo-Pacific region, its special forces are spending millions of dollars to help build up a Mongolian Armed Forces mobile training team. – Jane’s 360

Europe

The once “special relationship” between the United States and Great Britain is in tatters, shredded by the fallout from the 2016 Brexit referendum and President Trump’s determination to intervene in the politics of another country. If it improves, it likely will be on terms set by the president. – Washington Post

The lightning-fast resignation of Britain’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday following a leak of his correspondence criticizing the Trump administration has sent shivers down the spines of foreign diplomats in Washington who are paid to send frank assessments to their home countries. – Washington Post

Bulgaria’s government gave the go-ahead Wednesday for the purchase of eight new F-16 fighters in a bid to replace its aging Soviet-built jets and bring its air force in line with NATO standards. – Associated Press

British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn’s office interfered in independent party discipline processes aimed at rooting out anti-Semitism, the BBC said on Wednesday, a claim that the Labour Party sharply rejected. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into France’s planned tax on tech giants – a move that could result in retaliatory tariffs. His trade representative said the US was “very concerned” that the tax “unfairly targets American companies”. – BBC

Ursula von der Leyen, the nominee to be the next EU Commission president, said Wednesday that Brexit could be delayed for a third time, but warned London it must take responsibility for “sorting out” its tortured departure from the bloc. – Agence France–Presse

The transatlantic uproar over the British ambassador’s private cables criticizing President Trump could set the stage for a warm U.S. partnership with the man poised to replace Prime Minister Theresa May, whose allies might have engineered the memos’ leak. – Washington Examiner

The Americas

The Mexican government says a natural gas plant and a wind farm to produce electricity will be the first two projects under a U.S. development program to improve the economy of Mexico’s poor south as a way to discourage migration. – Associated Press

The Trump administration warned of unspecified “active threats” to U.S. elections as top security officials briefed Congress Wednesday on steps the government has taken to improve election security in the wake of Russian interference in 2016. – Associated Press

The head of the Pentagon’s Southern Command warned that Russia, China and Iran were expanding their influence in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela, where they support a government the United States seeks to depose. – Newsweek

The Democratic-controlled House is expected to vote this week on several measures to limit the president’s power to wage war on Iran and aid the Saudi war in Yemen, after clearing a key procedural hurdle late Tuesday night. – Defense News