Fdd's overnight brief

January 9, 2025

In The News

Israel

After a year marked by war and calls for isolating Israel on the world stage, its defense industry is on track to sell more weapons than ever in its history, spurred by foreign demand for its aerial-defense systems and significant government spending aimed at funding Israel’s ongoing military campaigns. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military said that it had retrieved the body of a hostage who had been held in the Gaza Strip, as the Biden administration struggles to secure a deal that would pause the fighting between Israel and Hamas and bring home dozens of hostages before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military placed new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty amid growing concern at the risk of legal action against reservists travelling abroad over allegations of involvement in war crimes in Gaza. – Reuters

Hamas’ armed wing al-Qassam Brigades, along with two other brigades, claimed on Wednesday the responsibility for the West Bank shooting that happened on Monday and killed three Israelis. – Reuters

When Luis Har was kidnapped by Hamas-led militants on the warm morning of Oct. 7, 2023, he was forced into Gaza wearing shorts and a T-shirt. As his captivity stretched into weeks and then months, the cold, wet winter set in, bringing along with it a dread he had never endured before. – Associated Press

As the Biden administration frets over Israel’s new ban of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, a UN watchdog group, UN Watch, is exposing the agency’s “unholy alliance” with terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a new report. – New York Sun

Israel’s embassy in Mexico on Wednesday condemned the “odious” destruction of a wax statue of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by a pro-Palestinian activist at a museum in Mexico City. – Agence France Presse

Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that the West Bank may be on the brink of war in a meeting with local authorities on Tuesday, N12 reported. – Jerusalem Post

Malcolm Gafson, who for twenty years has served as chairman of the Israel-Ireland Friendship League (IIFL), was devastated last December when he learned that Israel had decided to close its embassy in Ireland. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces detained a French freelance journalist and his fixer in southern Syria on Wednesday, inside a buffer zone now controlled by the Israeli military. – Times of Israel

A map of the biblical land of Israel published by the official Israel Arabic account on X earlier this week has drawn condemnation from neighboring Jordan, which accused the Israeli government of encouraging continued “conflict and violence” in the region. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The war has highlighted Israel’s dependence on arms from abroad, overwhelmingly from the US. No country, especially not one of Israel’s size, can attain full weapons independence. But at the same time, this dependence can be reduced, so as to decrease the amount of leverage other nations – even friendly ones like the US – can have on Israel’s decision-making process during times of war. Tuesday’s announcement of the contract with Elbit moves the country in the right direction. – Jerusalem Post

Amit Segal writes: During Mr. Trump’s first term, he signaled his openness to rethinking the Middle East by recognizing both Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and some form of Israeli sovereignty over Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria. Mr. Biden, for his part, tacitly permitted the IDF to create a buffer zone in portions of southern Syria. Mr. Trump can extend this approach to Gaza to signal that terrorism doesn’t pay. This map change could represent a significant advancement toward peace in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

Iran

Iran released Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, whose arrest in Tehran last month had sparked fears of a lengthy hostage crisis—a win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni that however highlights Western countries’ vulnerability to blackmail by authoritarian regimes. – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s top ranking general in Syria has contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden downfall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in the country. – New York Times

Iran’s foreign ministry called upon Paris to review its “unconstructive” approach, a few days before Tehran is set to hold a new round of talks about its nuclear programme with major European countries. – Reuters

British police said on Wednesday they had arrested a third man over the stabbing of a journalist working for a Persian language media organisation in London in March last year. – Reuters

John Hannah and Michael Makovsky write: Joining, or at least supporting, Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities means Trump will achieve what his predecessors promised to do but didn’t. By acting in early 2025, Trump will not only rid the world of the nightmare of a nuclear-armed terrorist state. He will also set down a marker of American power whose stabilizing message of deterrence will reverberate around the globe — to the enormous benefit of US interests — for the entirety of his presidency. – New York Post

Erfan Fard writes: This is a regime willing to endure any humiliation to cling to power but unashamed of committing atrocities to maintain its grip. However, this time, its efforts are futile—wet powder cannot ignite. Perhaps the global community, awakened in the 21st century, will rise against Khomeinism and Islamic terrorism, just as it opposed apartheid and communism in the 20th century. The world could once again see a time when the US and Israel have embassies in Tehran, rekindling connections with Iran’s rich culture, history, and civilization, reminiscent of the era of the late Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

A Russian bomb strike killed at least 13 people Wednesday in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, marking the deadliest single attack on a Ukrainian city in months. – Washington Post

The U.S. is expected to announce $500 million in military aid for Ukraine on Thursday at a final gathering of President Joe Biden’s weapons pledging conferences, meetings Kyiv says have been critical to its defense against Russia. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Wednesday discussed using Ukrainian coal to ease the energy crisis which has subjected Moldova’s separatist Transdniestria region to blackouts and a heating shortage. – Reuters

Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Wednesday he had secured Slovakia’s gas supply during a visit to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, just before Ukraine halted the transit of gas from Russia at the start of 2025. – Reuters

Ukraine struck overnight a Russian oil depot that serves a military airfield in the Russian city of Engels, Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Even as Russia seems to have the upper hand in its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin faces a growing number of challenges that will complicate any effort to lock in its gains, the outgoing Pentagon chief said. – Bloomberg

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Still others, perhaps the majority, are soft on the Kremlin and its narrative simply because the Biden administration, which they hate, pursued a hard-ish line toward Putin. Since the enemy of my enemy must be my friend, they objectively side with Russia, even as it violates everything they claim to stand for. – The Hill

Adrian Karatnycky writes: In order to be effective in motivating the Kremlin to end the war, the use of Russian assets to fund the Ukrainian military needs to be coupled with other measures. These include, above all, the removal (or threat thereof) of tight Western restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to fight, finally giving it the ability to strike deep within Russia just as Russia strikes deep within Ukraine. This should include the capacity to disrupt the Russian power grid in Moscow and St. Petersburg, which would further drive home to the Russian elite that the war comes with steep costs. – Foreign Policy

Syria

The Biden administration has decided to maintain the terrorist designation of Syria’s new Islamist rulers for the remainder of President Joe Biden’s tenure, leaving a critical decision about Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to the incoming Trump administration, said three U.S. officials familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

European Union sanctions in Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country’s recovery could be lifted swiftly, France’s foreign minister said Wednesday. – Reuters

Talks are taking place on whether U.S. and French troops could secure a border zone in northern Syria as part of efforts to defuse conflict between Turkey and Western-backed Kurdish Syrian forces, a senior Syrian Kurdish official said. – Reuters

A U.S. sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria is welcome, but “much more significant work … will inevitably be necessary,” the U.N. special envoy on Syria, Geir Pedersen, told the Security Council on Wednesday. – Reuters

Fighters in southern Syria who helped topple President Bashar Assad are reluctant to disarm and disband as ordered by the country’s new rulers, their spokesman told AFP. – Agence France Presse

Lebanon

Lebanon’s parliament looks set to elect army chief Joseph Aoun head of state on Thursday, three senior political sources said, ending a presidential vacuum which has persisted since 2022 and showing the diminished sway of the Iran-backed Hezbollah. – Reuters

The United Nations joined the Lebanese government on Tuesday to appeal for an additional $371.4 million in humanitarian aid for people displaced by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. – Agence France Presse

David Schenker writes: Despite the challenges, it is a uniquely propitious time for Lebanon. Going forward, the support of the heretofore risk averse Zuama will be critical. […] To encourage if not compel Lebanon’s leadership to embrace the opportunity afforded by Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah, Washington will likely have to condition economic and military assistance on LAF performance enforcing UN resolutions. Recalcitrant Lebanese politicians may likewise need to be sanctioned. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

In easier times for Egypt’s refugees, Azza Mostafa, a pro-government TV anchor, had nothing but generous words for the many thousands of Syrians who had built new lives in Egypt after their own country imploded into civil war in 2011. – New York Times

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party will hold face-to-face talks with imprisoned Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan for a second time, possibly as early as next week, two DEM lawmakers said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates has placed 11 individuals and eight British-based entities on its terrorism list for alleged affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood, which it designates as a terrorist organisation, the UAE state news agency (WAM) reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

Libya’s eastern-based parliament has approved a national reconciliation and transitional justice law, three lawmakers said, a measure aimed at reunifying the oil-producing country after over a decade of factional conflict. – Reuters

Turkey on Wednesday again insisted on a two-state peace accord in ethnically divided Cyprus as the United Nations prepares to meet with all sides in early spring in hopes of restarting formal talks to resolve one of the world’s most intractable conflicts. – Associated Press

Souhire Medini writes: In any case, definitively resolving this issue under the UN’s aegis is crucial to meeting the shared U.S.-European goal of building deeper trust and economic relations with Morocco. […] For its part, Morocco would likely welcome an opportunity to close the issue in time for this November’s fiftieth anniversary of the “Green March,” when the late King Hassan II orchestrated a mass demonstration to assert sovereignty inside Western Sahara following the departure of Spanish troops. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will accept the decision of the Constitutional Court that is trying parliament’s impeachment case against him, even if it decides to remove the suspended leader from office, his lawyer said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United States warned on Wednesday that North Korea is benefiting from its troops fighting alongside Russia against Ukraine, gaining experience that makes Pyongyang “more capable of waging war against its neighbors.” – Reuters

Karishma Vaswani writes: A democracy is only as good as the respect afforded to its institutions, and the value voters give it. Compromise and unity is what is needed now, not division and strife. Otherwise, South Koreans face a future where their country is likely to be paralyzed for months, possibly years. It is they who will suffer the most. – Bloomberg

Bruce Klingner writes: The incoming Trump administration will be looking for reliable allies and partners for confronting the growing Chinese and North Korean threats. Until recently, both South Korea and Japan were seen as sturdy and dependable allies. But the United States is now allied with two foundering ships of state even as Washington debates setting its own course in the Indo-Pacific. We have likely seen the high-water mark of trilateralism, and prospects for policy success are dimmer than just a few short months ago. – 19FortyFive

China

Beijing has called out the European Union for imposing what it says are unfair trade barriers on Chinese companies, ending a monthslong investigation into the bloc’s efforts to protect its businesses from foreign subsidies. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese health authorities said on Thursday they had detected the new mutated mpox strain clade Ib as the viral infection spreads to more countries after the World Health Organization declared a global public health emergency last year. – Reuters

Authorities moved more than 45,000 people in earthquake-hit Tibet to shelters in a massive rescue operation near the foot of the Himalayas, as they wound down the search in a high-altitude environment where the odds of survival were always slim. – Reuters

Taiwan and China traded barbs over what the government in Taipei suspects was a Chinese-linked ship’s damage to an undersea communications cable off the island’s coast, an incident that has raised alarm bells on the island. – Reuters

South Asia

The Taliban’s foreign office said they saw India as a “significant regional and economic partner” after meeting with its most senior foreign ministry official, the highest level talks with Delhi since their takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. – Reuters

At least six people were killed and several others injured late on Wednesday in a stampede in southern India after thousands of devotees queued outside one of the most visited Hindu temples to collect tokens for a free visit to the deity. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Tampa may not be a household name in India, but it and Pensacola are important centers for the U.S. military and therefore, for India as cooperation deepens. The India-United States partnership has developed in important ways over the past quarter century. It has survived hurdles, crises, and defied expectations. If the partnership is to continue, then it is time the State Department structure its diplomatic footprint to look forward towards India and into the 21st century, and not backwards toward Canada and the 20th. – Firstpost

Asia

U.S. President Joe Biden will host a virtual meeting with leaders from Japan and the Philippines during his trip to Rome this week, the White House said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The leader of a Japanese crime syndicate who was charged by U.S. authorities with trafficking nuclear materials from Myanmar pleaded guilty on Wednesday, the U.S. Justice Department said in a statement. – Reuters

Malaysia wants to leverage its location to become an energy and chip manufacturing hub this year, riding a recent jump in investments and a favourable outlook for the domestic economy, its premier and economic minister said on Thursday. – Reuters

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has accused neighbouring Armenia of posing a “fascist” threat that needs to be destroyed, in comments that Armenia’s leader called a possible attempt to justify fresh conflict. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday began a trip to Malaysia and Indonesia as part of an effort to strengthen defense and economic ties with Southeast Asia as China’s threats grow in the region. – Associated Press

Luis Simón and Toshi Yoshihara write: Access agreements and arrangements with allies and partners would need to be established in advance of a crisis or war. Indeed, routine peacetime submarine deployments to the Indo-Pacific might help to shore up deterrence. Europe would need to devote intellectual capital to develop concepts of operations, roles and missions, a proper division of labor, interoperability with allied undersea forces, water space management to avoid fratricide between allied submarines operating in close quarters, and so forth. Should Europe heed this logic, then it should get to work now. – War on the Rocks

Europe

President-elect Donald Trump’s latest demands of America’s NATO partners—that they cede territory to the U.S. and spend more on defense than Washington itself does—risk undermining allies’ confidence and potentially emboldening adversaries.  – Wall Street Journal

Membership in NATO is the only credible long-term security guarantee Ukraine can receive against future Russian aggression, Finland’s top diplomat said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Romania’s ruling coalition agreed on Wednesday to rerun a two-round presidential election on May 4 and May 18 and stuck to an original plan to endorse a single candidate, the Liberal Party, one of the three coalition parties, said. – Reuters

The new, interim leader of Austria’s conservatives demanded assurances from the far right on Wednesday that they want to keep Austria free from Russian interference, laying out potential flashpoints as they head into coalition talks. – Reuters

France urged the European Union to use its laws more robustly to defend itself against outside interference and Spain’s prime minister lambasted Elon Musk on Wednesday, as the U.S. tech billionaire steps up his comments about European politics. – Reuters

Britain used counter-terrorism laws to freeze the assets of “Blood and Honour”, an entity which it described as an “extreme right wing group” in what it said was a first use of its domestic sanctions regime to target far-right terrorism. – Reuters

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, tipped to become chancellor in next month’s election, said Germany would spend more on defence but would not commit to a NATO defence spending target as called for by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. – Reuters

Germany has taken note of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s statements about Greenland and Canada, and stands by the international principle that borders must not be moved by force, said a government spokesperson on Wednesday. – Reuters

Lithuania said on Wednesday it has ramped up security around the country’s electricity link with Poland ahead of a planned decoupling next month of the Baltic region’s power systems from a Soviet-era grid shared with Russia and Belarus. – Reuters

Lee Hockstader writes: That regulatory dispute, among others, is ongoing. A more consequential struggle is whether some of Washington’s most important allies, struggling with their own domestic problems, can resist interference with their sovereignty by a man whose net worth roughly equals Russia’s entire 2025 budget. Especially when that man has Donald Trump’s ear. – Washington Post

Marc Champion writes: So direct comparisons with Hitler remain hyperbolic. But we need to be much more concerned over how easily strongmen can destroy the institutions that enable their initial rise to power and protect our individual rights. On this score, the 1930s rise of fascism remains the best warning we have. – Bloomberg

Africa

Chad’s government said security forces had foiled an attempt to destabilise the country on Wednesday evening, after bursts of gunfire rang out near the president’s office in the capital N’Djamena and the military blocked the surrounding streets. – Reuters

Azerbaijan has lodged a protest with Eritrea over the detention of three Azerbaijani-flagged vessels and their crews that have been held since November 2024, Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Ayxan Hajizada said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Benin is moving fast to secure fresh external financing and may launch the first eurobond from Africa in 2025. – Bloomberg

The Americas

After President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, Canadian officials began racing to rebuild “Team Canada”—the bipartisan group of federal, provincial and business officials led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who pushed back against Trump’s tariffs in 2018. – Wall Street Journal

The leader of the Panama Canal Authority denied President-elect Donald Trump’s claims that China is controlling the vital trade route and said Trump’s suggestion that U.S. ships get preferential rates “will lead to chaos.” – Wall Street Journal

Justin Trudeau’s successor as Liberal leader and Canada’s prime minister will soon face a bruising election against a sharp-tongued populist riding a wave of anti-Trudeau sentiment. – Reuters

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said on Wednesday he has been invited to the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 20 and is seeking to obtain the return of his passport, confiscated last year amid a probe into an attempted coup in 2023. – Reuters

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum on Wednesday suggested North America including the United States could be renamed “Mexican America” – an historic name used on an early map of the region – in response to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” – Reuters

Donald Trump’s claim that the US doesn’t need anything from Canada is “simply false,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s energy minister and a potential candidate in the contest to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. – Bloomberg

Colombia’s leader said he will skip Nicolás Maduro’s presidential inauguration this week due to rising repression and the arrests of Venezuelan political leaders. – Bloomberg

An Islamic group facing a withering reception to plans for a conference dedicated to overthrowing governments to start a Muslim caliphate has issued a rare media statement denying it poses a security risk, and accusing critics of creating fake news. – National Post

Editorial: Mr. Maduro’s power trip has destabilized the Western Hemisphere by spurring a migration crisis and threatening U.S. national security. Drug and human smuggling are two of his most lucrative businesses. This is the right time to show the Venezuelan strongman that he won’t be considered legitimate if he crowns himself again on Friday. Only Venezuelans can reclaim their democracy. But a U.S. policy that restores sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and puts maximum pressure on the regime would at least show which side America is on. – Wall Street Journal

Vanessa Barbara writes: Under Mr. Bolsonaro, they became even more powerful. I can’t shake the feeling that there are plenty of generals, admirals and marshals who would be quick to side with a coup if their interests, and those of their organizations, weren’t fully satisfied. As we look ahead to the 2026 election, there’s reason to be worried. With an incoming U.S. administration more likely to support the military and perpetual distemper among the military ranks at Mr. Lula’s rule, we can’t be sure a coup won’t happen again. – New York Times

John Suarez writes: The advocates for returning to the Obama Cuba policy would have the United States join in the complicity of the European Union and Canada in subsidizing with tax dollars a 66-year-old dictatorship, helping to enrich a corrupt ruling class while everyday Cubans continue to suffer under their oppressive rule, and providing Havana resources to help create more Nicaraguas and Venezuelas in Latin America and sponsor international terrorism. – The Hill

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden canceled an upcoming trip to Italy due to the wildfires in California, the White House said on Wednesday, adding that he wanted to focus on directing the full federal response to the fires. – Reuters

Greenland is important for the United States’ national security, U.S. Congressman Mike Waltz said on Wednesday, following comments by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump suggesting the U.S. should take control of the island. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday dismissed President-elect Donald Trump’s interest in taking over Greenland, saying it was “obviously not a good” idea and that it would not happen. – Reuters

Robert D. Atkinson writes: America should respect free-trade ideals and hold them dear. But that should not blind us to the harsh reality that the world now is distorted by its strongest power trader. The answer is not deglobalization or protectionism. […] And it is not holding on naïvely to the hopes that free trade could yet prevail if the United States simply ended the trade war. China will not end its power trade regime until it has gained dominance across a wide range of advanced industries. Rather, we need to understand the adversary we face and respond bravely, strategically and expeditiously. – New York Times

Jessica Stern writes: One approach to preventing violence like the attack in New Orleans builds on public-health models that aim to reduce the rates of suicide, domestic violence and drunken driving. For it to prevent terrorist attacks, the authorities have to educate the public about the importance of bystander reporting and “off ramps” from violent radicalization. The New Orleans attack serves as a grim reminder that the ISIS digital caliphate is still able to transform personal crises into public tragedy. The alarming reality is that many other people remain vulnerable to similar paths of radicalization. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

Russia fined TikTok for not removing prohibited content. The results of a presidential election in Romania were thrown out over concerns the app had been used to spread foreign influence. Albania banned TikTok for a year following the stabbing death of a teenager by another one after the two quarreled online. – New York Times

Meta said Wednesday that it will allow some Facebook users to view eBay listings on its Marketplace service, as it tries out a possible way to resolve European Union charges of anticompetitive behavior that the bloc leveled last year. – Associated Press

Administrators of Iran’s most popular website for tracking the rial’s open-market exchange rate said they took it offline due to cyber attacks and security concerns after criticism from the head of the country’s central bank. – Bloomberg

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a part of the United Nations, confirmed on Wednesday a hack of its recruitment systems involving the compromise of more than 40,000 records containing personal information. – The Record

Ian Bogost writes: The effort Facebook attempted under the name fact-checking was doomed. You can’t nitpick every post from every random person, every hobby website, every brand, school, restaurant, militia lunatic, aunt, or dogwalker as if they were all the same. Along the way, Facebook’s effort also tarnished the idea that fact-checking could be something more. The platform’s mass deployment of surface-level checks gave the sense that sorting facts from falsehoods is not a subtle art but a simple and repeating task, one that can be algorithmically applied to any content. – The Atlantic

Defense

New presidential guidance on the application of the Missile Technology Control Regime is designed to help US partners and allies build up their space and missile capabilities by easing the export of space launch vehicles, precision-guided munitions and technology to enable them to develop advanced missiles, according to current and former government officials. – Breaking Defense

U.S. Central Command forces launched the first strikes of 2025 against the Houthis on Wednesday. The forces, which were not identified, struck two Houthi underground Advanced Conventional Weapon storage facilities in Yemen, according to the Wednesday news release. – USNI News

Advanced adversaries are acquiring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities and other tools that will make it easier to locate American troops. To counter that, U.S. special operations forces need to hone their ability to achieve “security through obscurity” on “hyper-transparent battlefields,” officials say. – DefenseScoop