Fdd's overnight brief

January 8, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

An Israel-Lebanon cease-fire that calmed months of cross-border bloodshed is being strained as the two sides accuse each other of violations and the U.S. races to make sure the deal holds. – Wall Street Journal

Israel needs to boost military spending to strengthen its offensive capabilities, a government commission warned this week, as the country could continue fighting on multiple fronts for the foreseeable future. – Wall Street Journal

The U.N. agency that provides aid and services to millions of Palestinians across the Middle East may soon be forced to end its operations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as Israel prepares to enact twin laws banning the organization’s work in Israeli territory and prohibiting contact between its staff and government officials. – Washington Post

Ireland has formally joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, according to a statement on Tuesday from the International Court of Justice. – New York Times

Steve Witkoff, President-elect Donald Trump’s designated Middle East special envoy, said Tuesday he has been in Qatar “working in tandem” with Biden administration negotiators on a last-ditch effort to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. – Washington Post

Hamas stood by its demand on Tuesday that Israel fully end its assault on Gaza under any deal to release hostages, and said U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was rash to say there would be “hell to pay” unless they go free by his Jan. 20 inauguration. – Reuters

Israeli forces killed at least three Palestinian militants in stepped-up operations across the occupied West Bank on Tuesday following the killing of three Israelis near a Jewish settlement a day earlier, the Israeli military said. – Reuters

Israel said on Tuesday pressure groups were pushing foreign courts to take action against Israelis over alleged war crimes in Gaza but described the actions as “propaganda activity” and said no warrants had been issued. – Reuters

Israel’s Defence Ministry said on Tuesday it had signed deals worth around $275 million with the country’s largest domestic private arms maker Elbit (ESLT.TA), to make heavy bombs and raw materials needed for defence, reducing dependence on imports. – Reuters

The Israeli document that forms the basis of the hostage negotiation talks in Doha, Qatar was published by Israeli public broadcaster KAN on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post

The election of Donald Trump as US president offers an unprecedented opportunity to remove the threat Israel faces from Iran, according to a committee appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to examine defense spending and IDF military force design for the future. – Times of Israel

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Tuesday that the House will this week approve sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its Chief Prosecutor, Karim Khan, in response to the court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. – Arutz Sheva

Iran

Iran’s foreign ministry called upon Paris to review its “unconstructive” approach, a few days before Tehran is set to hold a new round of talks about its nuclear programme with major European countries. – Reuters

The number of people executed in Iran rose to 901 last year, including 31 women, some of whom were convicted of murdering their husbands to fend off rape or after being forced into marriage, the U.N. human rights office said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Despite some of the West’s toughest sanctions, Iran has built a roaring global trade for its oil. It relies on a shadow fleet of tankers that conceal their activities to skirt sanctions, and willing buyers in Asia to keep its economy afloat and to finance anti-Western militias in the Middle East. – Reuters

Iran’s military has begun drills focusing on air defenses near the Natanz nuclear enrichment plant in the center of the country as part of exercises planned nationwide, state media reported on Tuesday. – Agence France Presse

France on Tuesday urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Iran until French nationals held there have been released. – Agence France Presse

Editorial: Now Mr. Macron suggests Europeans may be ready to cooperate with the returning sheriff in Washington. Hence his comments Monday about “re-engaging in dialogue” with the new U.S. Administration regarding the Iran nuclear problem. Better late than never, although Mr. Macron and his European peers have left it very late indeed. So late that Israel, Europe and the U.S. can’t take military action off the table. – Wall Street Journal

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine said on Tuesday its forces were “commencing new offensive actions” in Russia’s western Kursk region, in its first substantive remarks two days after Russian reports of a renewed Ukrainian thrust in the area. – Reuters

The Biden administration is set to announce a massive, final weapons aid package for Ukraine as part of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Germany on Thursday to meet with representatives of about 50 partner nations who have come to Ukraine’s defense since Russia invaded nearly three years ago, two senior defense officials said. – Associated Press

A North Korean M1989 Koksan self-propelled howitzer has allegedly been spotted on Russia’s front lines, according to reports on Tuesday after news regarding the shipment of two of the big guns was first reported in November. – Fox News

Martin Kuz writes: No such strategic or moral haze obscures the reasons for supporting Ukraine. The country’s brave fight to preserve its freedom, territory, culture and national identity exemplifies the democratic ideals that define the West — ideals that Vance, Gabbard and Hegseth revere in word but scorn in deed. Their forsaking of Ukraine will leave more blood on America’s conscience, if not their own. – The Hill

Walter Clemens writes: The Kremlin is also attacked by hawks such as journalist Maksim Kalashnikov, founder of the Angry Patriots Club (it is actually called that), who has derided Putin as an unhinged dummy for not sending more troops to fight in Ukraine. Kalashnikov has published a dozen books in Russian including Putin Incorporated, Hawkish Futurology, and The Bloody 21st Century: Inevitable Catastrophe. Are the regime’s critics right? In truth, we have no idea. That’s disappointing to its many enemies at home and abroad, but it’s no reassurance for Putin who knows that the end can come with frightening haste. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Syria

Germany is leading European Union discussions on easing sanctions imposed on the Syrian government of toppled President Bashar al-Assad and aiding the country’s population, foreign ministry sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Qatar is planning to help finance a massive boost in public sector wages promised by Syria’s new government, a U.S. official and a senior diplomat said, vital assistance to the new Islamist rulers in Damascus a month after they toppled Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Syria will take its time to organise a landmark national dialogue conference to ensure that the preparations include all segments of Syrian society, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said on Tuesday, according to state media. – Reuters

Turkey

Turkey will carry out a cross-border offensive into northeastern Syria against the Kurdish YPG militia if the group does not meet Ankara’s demands, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Tuesday, while adding that Syria’s new rulers must address the issue. – Reuters

Turkey is working to ensure that Syria’s transformation over the last month will not bring new instabilities to the region, President Tayyip Erdogan told the Iraqi Kurdish prime minister, Erdogan’s office said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkey’s Dogan Trend said on Wednesday that progress has been made on its work with China’s SAIC Motor (600104.SS), to establish a vehicle plant in Turkey. Dogan Trend CEO Kagan Dagtekin said in a statement that officials from the Turkish company will travel to Shanghai on Jan. 10 upon the Chinese company’s invitation to “take the project to the next phase.” – Reuters

Lebanon

Lebanon is set to extradite the son of late senior Muslim cleric Youssef al-Qaradawi to the United Arab Emirates after the country’s caretaker cabinet approved the move on Tuesday, the Lebanese prime minister’s office said. – Reuters

Gianluca Pacchiani writes: While Hezbollah attempts to repair its reputation and mend ties with its domestic allies, Israel will need to stay vigilant, watching the group’s movements and preventing any attempt at reconstituting its military capabilities, the expert said. “Lebanon is giving them time to rest and relax. And that’s that’s the scary part. The more time they have, the more they can rearm and go back to where we were,” Daoud said. “So what Israel should do is not let them rest and relax.” – Times of Israel

Dana Polak writes: The month of January 2025, especially the days leading up to the end of the 60-day ceasefire will be the real testing period for the agreement and the conduct of the Lebanese Army. Without a fundamental change in the approach of the Lebanese Army and a commitment from the international community to effective oversight, Hezbollah will exploit the situation to rearm and pose a threat to Israel and this will compel Israel to act. – Arutz Sheva

Gulf States

The United Arab Emirates has discussed with Israel and the United States participating in a provisional administration of post-war Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority is able to take charge, according to people familiar with the talks. – Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a $20 billion investment for data centers in the United States by an Emirati company led by billionaire Hussain Sajwani, a close business partner of the Trump family. – Associated Press

Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs of the United Arab Emirates, met with Syria’s interim Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaybani on Monday to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments. The meeting, held in Abu Dhabi, focused on strengthening cooperation in areas of mutual interest and addressing key issues related to Syria’s recovery and stability. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

OPEC oil output fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey found, as a drop from the United Arab Emirates due to field maintenance and from Iran offset a hike from Nigeria and other gains elsewhere in the group. – Reuters

Egypt will hold talks with Somalia next week to discuss Cairo’s troop contribution inside a multilateral force battling Islamist insurgents in the Horn of Africa nation. – Bloomberg

F. Gregory Gause, III writes: Rule two is to avoid the trap of making a priority of a final settlement of the Arab-Israeli issue, which can only sap energies and divert attention from more achievable goals. Rule three is to remember that a stable Middle East requires governments that can actually govern their societies and control their territories, not necessarily governments that could join the “club of democracies.” With modest goals, realistic expectations, and steady diplomacy the incoming second Trump administration could leave the Middle East in much better shape than it is finding it. – Middle East Institute

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a new and potentially more robust attempt to arrest him for insurrection after a top investigator vowed to do whatever it takes to break a security blockade and take in the impeached leader. – Reuters

As impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol fights for his political survival, the embattled leader has found an ally among young conservative men. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok on Wednesday said the government will work with the central bank and regulators to respond swiftly to any financial market volatility and focus on communicating with the incoming U.S. administration. – Reuters

Donald Kirk writes: It’s possible, if Lee were to become president, that he would want to maintain close ties with the U.S. for the sake of mutual interests ranging from economic to cultural as well as military. In Washington, a return to normalcy would come as a relief regardless of who’s in charge in Seoul. The current crisis has been a nightmare from which the Americans would hope to awaken and discover the alliance, at least, endures as it has ever since the Korean War. – The Hill

Brandon J. Weichert writes: If North Korea has mastered hypersonic weapons, and if Pyongyang can mass produce them quickly enough, then the next Trump-Kim spat might not end so amicably for the United States. It’s time for the Americans to take hypersonic weapons development far more seriously. In fact, the moment is now for Washington truly develop anti-hypersonic weapon defenses. – National Interest

China

At a Washington forum last month, a prominent Chinese economist raised doubts about Beijing’s economic management and said China’s economy might have grown at less than half the roughly 5% pace flaunted by authorities. – Wall Street Journal

A U.K. parliamentary committee on Tuesday grilled representatives of China-founded bargain site Shein over the sourcing of its cotton, and declared severe dissatisfaction with Shein’s lack of answers. – Wall Street Journal

China called the United States “extremely irresponsible” for “groundlessly suspecting” there are information security risks in China’s drone systems, its commerce ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Chinese director of a firm whose vessel Taiwan suspects of having damaged an undersea communications cable said on Wednesday there was no evidence the ship was involved, an incident that has alarmed the government in Taipei. – Reuters

Shandong Port Group has banned U.S.-sanctioned tankers from calling into its ports in the eastern Chinese province, home to many independent refiners that are the biggest importers of oil from countries under U.S. embargo, three traders said. – Reuters

President Xi Jinping of China has renewed his call to root out corruption, describing it as the most serious threat to the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). – Newsweek

Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass write: It is undeniable that the United States faces serious challenges. But it is equally undeniable that it retains extraordinary strengths—and that its democratic institutions, albeit stressed, possess a unique capacity for renewal. Competition between the United States and Beijing will be a defining feature of the coming decades. But although China’s centralized governance may deliver rapid advancements in key areas, its gains are fragile. The real peril for the United States may lie not in the unmatchable rise of a new rival but in its own unwillingness to acknowledge and build on its own unmatched potential. – Foreign Affairs

Matthew Eitel writes: On the other hand, Trump’s recent comments and past willingness to lift controls on Chinese firms could indicate he’d consider easing the controls as part of a “grand bargain” with China. There will inevitably be internal clashes between the administration’s China-hawks and pro-tech voices. This final salvo of chip export controls may be the last for President Biden — but almost certain to not be the final battle in the US-China tech competition. – Center for European Policy Analysis

South Asia

When Kabul fell to the Afghan Taliban in 2021, the head of Pakistan’s intelligence service was one of the first foreign guests to visit the new regime, telling reporters that “everything will be okay.” But less than 3½ years later, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have dramatically deteriorated. – Washington Post

Soldiers who were part of British special forces working in Afghanistan have told a public inquiry of their concerns that Afghans who posed no threat had been murdered in raids against suspected Taliban insurgents, including some aged under 16. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates has agreed to roll over the payment of $2 billion due by Pakistan this month, the South Asian nation’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday. – Reuters

After world-beating economic growth last year, India’s policymakers are scrambling to head off a sharp slowdown as worsening global conditions and domestic confidence wipe out a recent stock market rally. – Reuters

Microsoft (MSFT.O), will spend $3 billion to expand its Azure cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) capacity in India, CEO Satya Nadella said on Tuesday, doubling down on a country with tech expertise and low costs to help turn such investments profitable. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s anti-money laundering agency requested information on the domestic bank accounts of UK City Minister Tulip Siddiq, who’s also the niece of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a potential precursor to a broader financial investigation. – Bloomberg

Asia

The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam exceeded $110 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, latest U.S. figures show, as exports from the Southeast Asian industrial hub grew amid a record fall of its currency against the dollar. – Reuters

Indonesia’s industry minister met representatives of Apple (AAPL.O), on Tuesday to discuss the company’s potential investment in the country, a prerequisite for the tech giant to sell its latest iPhone 16 locally, the minister said. – Reuters

A purported royal document allowing Malaysia’s jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest was never hidden, the communications minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters

A Thai court on Wednesday issued an arrest warrant for an alleged hit man who shot dead a former Cambodian opposition lawmaker in a brazen attack in Bangkok’s crowded old quarter, police said. – Reuters

The United States needs to expand and fortify its military airfields in the Western Pacific Ocean as they face the threat of severe Chinese attacks, researchers warned in a report. – Newsweek

Europe

Denmark’s king has unveiled a new royal coat of arms that more prominently features Greenland, as President-elect Donald Trump again floats the idea of the United States buying the Danish territory, a proposal that disrupted relations with Copenhagen during his first term in office. – Washington Post

After struggling without heat for six days, a breakaway region in the Eastern European country of Moldova is now short of electricity, too, with the authorities ordering eight hours of power cuts a day to prevent the overloaded electricity system from collapsing. – New York Times

Finnish police said on Tuesday they had recovered a lost anchor from the seabed as part of an investigation of suspected sabotage against power and internet cables in the Baltic Sea. – Reuters 

The United States imposed sanctions on a senior member of the Hungarian government for alleged corruption, the U.S. Treasury said on Tuesday, a move Budapest said it would challenge when President-elect Donald Trump takes power. – Reuters

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rebuffed President-elect Donald Trump’s wish to buy Greenland but welcomed US investment in the self-ruling territory. – Bloomberg

NATO will send around 10 ships to guard important underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea by the end of the week, Finnish newspaper Yle reported on Tuesday. – Politico

The German government has quietly decided to cut funds towards two Israeli human rights organizations, according to a Sunday report by the German international broadcaster Deutsche Welle. – Jerusalem Post

Benjamin Jensen writes: The best strategy will combine new law enforcement measures, existing sanctions, intelligence, and a mix of covert action and conventional military power. The key will be balancing the approach and integrating partners and allies to amplify the effect. And, these coercive measures should be coordinated with ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, thus providing the United States’ new special envoy and Kyiv leverage in behind-the-scenes negotiations. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Nurlan Aliyev writes: These actions have prompted NATO to enhance its own maritime capabilities to counter Russian aggression, particularly in key regions such as the Baltic, Barents, and North Seas, as well as the Arctic. While the Russian navy continues to demonstrate significant expertise in deep-sea operations, its research fleet is aging rapidly, with many vessels nearing the end of their operational lives. Modernizing this fleet will be critical if Russia intends to sustain its ambitions beneath the waves. – War on the Rocks

Africa

The U.S. declared that a paramilitary group fighting the government of Sudan has committed genocide in a bloody civil war that U.S. officials have called the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe. – Wall Street Journal

Mauritius has issued an arrest order for its former finance minister, Renganaden Padayachy, in relation to a probe into alleged embezzlement, a police notice in local newspapers said on Tuesday, days after the arrest of the former central bank governor. – Reuters

Gunmen kidnapped at least 46 people, including women and children, in a raid on Gana town in Nigeria’s northwest Zamfara state, residents and a local traditional leader said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Guinean court sentenced opposition leader Mamadou Aliou Bah to two years in prison for insulting the nation’s transitional president, General Mamadi Doumbouya. – Bloomberg

Latin America

Thirteen Cuban soldiers are missing after explosions rocked an arms and ammunition depot in the eastern province of Holguin, Cuba’s armed forces said late on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.S. is expected to introduce new sanctions this week against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, an Axios reporter said in a post on X on Tuesday, citing two U.S. officials. – Reuters

Two U.S. citizens have been arrested in Venezuela, part of a group of seven who President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday branded as “mercenaries,” in the latest roundup ahead of the embattled leader’s expected inauguration to a new term later this week. – Reuters

More than 5,600 people were reported killed in Haiti last year as a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenya struggles to contain rampant gang violence, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

At least one Israeli citizen is among the 125 foreign nationals arrested by Venezuela on Monday, on suspicions of working as a mercenary for the United States in an alleged coup attempt against the current Venezuelan government led by disputed President Nicolás Maduro. – Haaretz

North America

In early 2022, much of Canada’s political establishment lined up to blast the Freedom Convoys—lines of truckers who blocked access to this country’s capital to protest Covid-19 vaccine mandates. But not Pierre Poilievre. – Wall Street Journal

Crossings into the United States from Mexico dropped sharply last year. But countries south of the U.S. border are waiting nervously to see if President-elect Donald J. Trump orders mass deportations. – New York Times

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday dismissed a suggestion by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that he might use “economic force” to make Canada the 51st U.S. state. – Reuters

Christopher Hernandez-Roy writes: Finally, Canada cannot wait to have a new government in place to continue USMCA negotiations with the incoming Trump administration, even if the president-elect will have little time for a lame-duck prime minister. Whether the threatened tariffs are implemented on day one or not, they will continuously hang over the USMCA review process, which is supposed to occur by July 2026. The new Canadian government will want to ensure that the review does not turn into a renegotiation, but that is likely inevitable. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

United States

President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to take control of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal reflect his fascination with a 21st-century version of an old idea—that great powers should carve out spheres of influence and defend their economic and security interests by imposing their will on smaller neighbors. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Europe, the Middle East and Asia from Jan. 13 through Jan. 17, the White House said on Tuesday. – Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to oversee what he has promised to be the country’s largest ever deportation effort says he will need tens of billions of dollars to carry out the mission, but it will ultimately reduce taxpayers’ burden. – Bloomberg

Bret Stephens writes: But his entire senior staff must have noticed, and, as The Journal reported, they took advantage of it to enhance their own power. It’s a national scandal that deserves a congressional inquiry. And Hunter? A father’s love is admirable. A president’s lie is not. In one of his last major political acts in office, Joe Biden forgot who he was. But it seems as if that already happened years ago. History won’t be kind. – New York Times

Robin Niblett writes: Such a recalibration could exacerbate tensions with Washington, as well as between European capitals, even if the Trump administration takes a more pragmatic approach to U.S. alliances than many fear. Nevertheless, U.S. partners must now do their part to ensure that the alliance network can survive whatever changes Trump implements. They must use the next four years to show Americans that, as allies become more capable and demanding, they can also be more attractive global partners. – Foreign Affairs

Cybersecurity

The suspected driver of the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas on New Year’s Day used popular chatbot ChatGPT to plan the blast, officials told reporters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israeli cybersecurity firms raised $4 billion in 2024, more than double that of 2023, led by firms seeking to protect the cloud along with a surge in artificial intelligence, global venture capital firm YL Ventures said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The White House on Tuesday unveiled a new label for smart thermostats, baby monitors, app-controlled lights and other internet-connected devices that will allow consumers to see how the increasingly popular items rate on cybersafety criteria. – Reuters

A recent U.N. aviation agency information security incident involved the alleged release of thousands of recruitment application data records from April 2016 to July 2024, the Montreal-based body told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a military partnership of 10 northern European countries, has activated an AI-powered system to track potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the so-called Russian shadow fleet, consisting of hundreds of often poorly maintained vessels used to circumvent sanctions and possibly for spying and sabotage. – Defense News

Thomas Kent writes: Still, the continued dominance of content reflecting democratic attitudes and facts depends on two factors: the survival of enough credible mainstream news and information outlets to keep creating that content, and major publications agreeing to let AI companies use their material. Even AI agents with the greatest freedom to seek and analyze knowledge will be at peril if false information dominates the information pool they are allowed to access. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The United States and China are racing to field their next-generation, or the so-called “sixth-generation,” fighter aircraft, which are designed to be superior to the most advanced combat jets that are currently in service with both nations, experts have told Newsweek. – Newsweek

The 2025 plan to recapitalize the Navy’s fleet will cost about $40.1 billion annually — about double what the service has received from Congress for shipbuilding over the last five years, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s annual analysis. – USNI News

Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart write: In summary, US airfields face a severe threat of attack. The current DoD approach of largely ignoring this menace invites PRC aggression and risks losing a war. Executing an urgent and effective campaign to enhance the resilience of US airfield operations will require informed decisions and sustained funding. Passive defenses, including hardening, are essential; China, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, and other countries have invested heavily in them to sustain airfield operations amidst attack—as has the United States in the past. It is past time for the United States to do so again. – Hudson Institute

Long War

Jordan and Syria have agreed to form a joint security committee to secure their border, combat arms and drug smuggling and work to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State militants, the Jordanian foreign minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

While President Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan complicated his entire foreign policy effort, it is at least seen as an end of America’s involvement in the south Asian country known as the “graveyard of empires.” Yet, the region is an Islamist terrorism hotbed, raising the question of whether we are paying enough attention as battles escalate there. – New York Sun

Ben-Dror Yemini writes: There’s no magic solution to the Palestinian issue. Both the left and the right must break free from outdated paradigms. Withdrawal hasn’t worked; it brought us October 7. Population integration hasn’t worked; it led to Monday’s attack. The most viable direction involves both separation of populations and maintaining security. It’s not an ideal solution by far. But under the circumstances, it’s the least bad option. – Ynet