Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Biden administration notified Congress of an $8 billion weapons package for Israel, including thousands of bombs, missiles and artillery shells, in one of the largest new arms sales since the war in Gaza began in 2023. – Wall Street Journal

Of the 60,000 Israelis evacuated from northern towns and villages during the course of the war — most forced to shelter for more than a year with family or in hotels — only about 20 percent have gone home in recent weeks, according to Moshe Davidovich, head of one of northern Israel’s largest local councils. – Washington Post

The Israeli military said on Sunday that it has been conducting “operational raids” in recent weeks on Mount Hermon in Syria, continuing a military campaign on Syrian soil that is drawing increasing international condemnation. – New York Times

Dozens of Israeli strikes pounded the Gaza Strip over the weekend as Israeli and Hamas officials continued indirect cease-fire talks through mediators in Qatar. Israel’s military said on Sunday that it had hit more than 100 targets across the enclave over the weekend, including sites from which militants had fired at least four projectiles toward Israeli territory on Friday and Saturday. – New York Times

Hamas’s military wing released a video on Saturday of Liri Albag, one of some 250 people taken hostage by the group in its attack on Israel, as Israeli and Hamas officials held further rounds of indirect cease-fire talks via mediators in Qatar. – New York Times

Two Palestinians, including a 17-year-old boy, were killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, according to the Palestinian Fatah party and the Palestinian Health Ministry. – Reuters

Palestinian militant group Hamas has approved a list of 34 hostages presented by Israel to be exchanged in a possible ceasefire deal, a group official told Reuters on Sunday. – Reuters

Hamas said a new round of indirect talks on a Gaza ceasefire resumed in Qatar’s Doha on Friday, stressing the group’s seriousness in seeking to reach a deal as soon as possible, senior Hamas official Basem Naim said. – Reuters

Israel has helped a former soldier leave Brazil after legal action was initiated against him by a group accusing Israelis of war crimes in the Gaza Strip based in part on soldiers’ social media posts. – Associated Press

Two women in their 60s and a man in his 40s were killed and seven others were wounded in a shooting terror attack near Kedumim in the West Bank, Israel’s emergency medical response service, Magen David Adom (MDA) said on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, an amplifier for Biden policies, writes in his Dec. 31 exit interview with Mr. Sullivan that “the Biden team bet on Israel,” which “began to run the table against Iran and its proxies,” resulting in “a transformed Middle East.” Who knew de-escalation meant transformation? As the Biden team gropes for a legacy, about the only positive one it can find is that Iranian power has been rolled back. Never mind that this was the opposite of its policy, which sought accommodation at every turn and tried to stop Israel short in each theater. Let’s pray the change has come in time to quash Hamas’s hopes and help the hostages. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Framing the hostage negotiations as a matter of “price” has not only politicized the issue but also neglected the devastating societal toll of inaction, which could irreparably weaken Israel’s social unity if hostages are left behind or deals are delayed. The focus on the “cost” of rescuing hostages often overshadows the actual risk: prolonging their captivity or losing some altogether, a delay that could fracture the social strength that defines Israeli society as we know it. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: When I say UNRWA merged with Hamas, I mean it: The only reason UNRWA remained nominally a separate entity was so it could safeguard key Hamas figures and facilities and keep Hamas communication lines open during its war with Israel. We should reject the idea that aid to Palestinians must necessarily come with terrorism and widespread human misery. Keep the dialysis machines, lose the hostage-takers. – Commentary Magazine

Seth Mandel writes: Israel continues to be the only Western country that truly acts like it has a stake in how this now-global conflict ends. A country of barely 10 million has been putting the rest on its shoulders. Yet still, Israelis somehow seem immune to the paralysis that most would inevitably succumb to. The CEO of Israel’s largest mental-health organization told the Times of Israel that she doesn’t want people to merely say “the country is in trauma. That doesn’t help us. It’s vital that we look at what we can do, how we can be proactive.” Here’s hoping Israelis have less of a burden to carry in 2025, or, at the very least, that they get some help carrying it. – Commentary Magazine

Russia & Ukraine

At the same time, the ranks of Ukrainian soldiers have grown more and more depleted and unequipped to fend off the Russian onslaught. Those in the field describe exhaustion and slumping morale. And soldiers who said they believed in fighting until the last of the Russian occupiers were pushed off all of Ukraine’s territory are increasingly supporting President-elect Donald Trump’s call to begin negotiations to end the war. – Washington Post

Ukrainian forces have gone on the offensive in the Kursk region of Russia, Ukrainian and Russian officials said Sunday, in what appeared to be an effort to regain the initiative there as they struggle to thwart relentless Russian assaults across eastern Ukraine. – New York Times

The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Sunday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said security guarantees for Kyiv to end Russia’s war would only be effective if the United States provides them, and that he hoped to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump soon after his inauguration. – Reuters

Russian forces have seized control of Kurakhove, a town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Monday. Gaining control over Kurakhove “has significantly hampered the logistics and technical support” of Ukrainian troops, the ministry said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that Russian and North Korean forces suffered heavy losses in fighting in Russia’s southern Kursk region. – Reuters

Russian airports in the cities of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk and Perm, which temporarily halted flights on Sunday morning to ensure the safety of civilian aircraft, have resumed normal operations, the aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia said. – Reuters

The Russian media outlet Izvestia said on Saturday that a Ukrainian drone strike killed its reporter near the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. – Reuters

Russia declared a regional state of emergency on Saturday in Crimea, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014, as workers cleared tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait following an oil spill in the Black Sea last month. – Reuters

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Saturday it had thwarted a large attack in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg and detained four teenagers it said had been planning to detonate a bomb in a crowded area. – Reuters

A Russian guided bomb attack on Saturday wounded 10 people, including two children, in a village in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, near the Russian border, local authorities said. – Reuters

Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday that Russian forces had taken control of the village of Nadiya in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region and had shot down eight U.S.-made ATACMS missiles. – Reuters

Jim Geraghty writes: There are arguments for aiding Ukraine that appeal to the right side of the political spectrum, including the need to counter Russia’s brutal suppression of evangelical Christian churches in occupied territories and its hunger for Ukraine’s vast natural resources. Also: Pressing Ukraine to cede territory to Moscow in a peace deal would make the United States look weak, emboldening other hostile nations. Starting on Jan. 20, Republicans will be running the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Ukraine needs an advocate who understands them, speaking with a fresh voice to their perspective and priorities. – Washington Post

Afghanistan

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he wouldn’t make any apologies for ending the war in Afghanistan, which left 13 Americans dead and the Taliban in charge, during an interview with The New York Times ahead of the Biden administration’s exit. – Fox News

The Taliban’s governance in Afghanistan has hindered regional cooperation on critical issues like shared water resources, according to a member of Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. – Iran International

Arman Nuri and Ron Maccammon write: Afghanistan represents more than a humanitarian challenge; it is an opportunity for America to redefine its leadership. By focusing on initiatives that directly benefit Afghan communities, the U.S. can counter adversarial influence while advancing its global position. When donor fatigue and skepticism about multilateral frameworks are at an all-time high, a recalibrated approach would show that U.S. engagement offers a brighter future for Afghans. – The Hill

Iraq

An Iraqi who pleaded guilty to commanding insurgents who committed war crimes in Afghanistan filed suit in federal court on Friday, seeking to stop his transfer from the U.S. military prison in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to a prison in Iraq. – New York Times

The Emirati newspaper Erem News said on Sunday that a Western diplomatic team and local Iraqi parties are in continuous contact to find a solution to the Elizabeth Tzurkov’s case, an Israeli kidnapped last year in Iraq. – I24 News

Commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is visiting Baghdad to meet the leaders of Tehran-backed Shia groups as well as the Iraqi prime minister, Arab media reported Sunday. – Iran International

Lebanon

Syria’s new administration has imposed restrictions on Lebanese crossing their shared border into Syria, a Lebanese security official and a Syrian official said on Friday. – Reuters

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) claimed that an IDF bulldozer destroyed a blue barrel marking the line of withdrawal between Lebanon and Israel in Labbouneh, in a Saturday night X/Twitter post. – Jerusalem Post

Israel is talking tough about remaining in Lebanon after the initial 60-day ceasefire to pressure the Lebanese Armed Forces to fulfill their obligations before the period ends, an Israeli official tells The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Yemen

Now Israel is setting its sights on the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, who represent a lingering problem, regularly firing missiles at Israel—and it is a problem with few clear ways to handle. So far, Israel has targeted what it says is energy and transportation infrastructure the Houthis use for military purposes. The next step is to hit the group’s top leaders, much as its security forces did with Hamas and Hezbollah. – Wall Street Journal

A ballistic missile fired toward Israel from Yemen was intercepted early Sunday morning, the military said, with air raid sirens largely remaining silent despite the threat. – Agence France-Presse

The US has informed Israel that, by the end of US President Joe Biden’s term in office, America intends to escalate its attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, KAN 11 reported on Friday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: They can give up their role as Iran’s proxy and work toward a diplomatic resolution of Yemen’s conflict. They can save their people from the devastation that will surely befall them should there be further provocations against Israel. But time is running out. The Houthis would do well to realize that they are playing with fire, and the flames will engulf them if they do not change course. The choice is theirs – and the consequences if they make the wrong decision will be swift and unforgiving. – Jerusalem Post

Erga Atad writes: The battle for moral advantage is the key to victory in the psychological warfare over international public opinion. Israel consistently presents its actions as measured, distinguishing between military and civilian targets, during Operation Sounds of the Vineyard [retaliatory strikes by the Israeli Air Force against Houthi targets]. Conversely, the Houthis seek to spread disinformation through narratives portraying Israel as targeting civilians, even when the targets are only military. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

U.S. flags, “Stop the Steal” and the Virginia state motto are finding a home in a political battle halfway around the world from Washington, as supporters and critics of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol invoke familiar American political symbols of freedom and defiance. – Washington Post

A Jeju Air crash in South Korea last week, the deadliest plane accident in years, has stunned the global aviation industry. The country is regarded as a model for how to turn poor air safety practices into some of the world’s best. – New York Times

South Korean investigators will seek an extension of a warrant to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, as visiting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed confidence in the key Asian ally’s handling of the political turmoil. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a North Korean missile test carried out during his visit to Seoul on Monday was a reminder of the need to deepen Washington’s cooperation with South Korea and Japan to deter an emboldened Pyongyang. – Reuters

The chief of security for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Sunday he could not cooperate with efforts to arrest the impeached leader, in remarks that could push the political crisis towards another high-stakes confrontation. – Reuters

South Asia

India’s foreign ministry said on Friday that New Delhi has conveyed its concerns to Beijing about China’s plan to build a hydropower dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Zangbo river which flows into India. – Reuters

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to New Delhi from Jan. 5-6 is expected to include discussions with Indian counterparts about the impact of Chinese dams, a senior U.S. official said late on Friday. – Reuters

Funding in India’s space sector, a key part of the country’s ambitions to become a global superpower, plummeted by 55% in 2024 to $59.1 million from $130.2 million the previous year, according to data from market intelligence platform Tracxn. – Reuters

A blast from an improvised explosive device killed one person and wounded 35 others on Saturday in Pakistan’s southwestern city of Turbat, a police official said. – Associated Press

Europe

Switzerland thought it came to terms with its Nazi-assisting past after harrowing probes in the 1990s led its two largest banks to pay more than $1 billion restitution to Holocaust victims. Documents unearthed in bank archives show it might have been at least in part a whitewash. – Wall Street Journal

The far-right Freedom Party of Austria gained a realistic chance this weekend of leading the country’s next government, after talks between three mainstream parties collapsed. The Freedom Party’s ascent would put its firebrand leader, Herbert Kickl, into the position of chancellor and signal a new high-water mark for the rise of the far right in Europe. – New York Times

But on Sunday, Mr. Musk posted, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.” Mr. Musk did not explain his change of heart. But it appears linked to Mr. Farage’s refusal to endorse Mr. Musk’s demand that a far-right agitator, Tommy Robinson, be released from prison. – New York Times

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Sunday she was ready to work with Donald Trump after making a surprise visit to Florida to meet the president-elect before his inauguration on Jan. 20. – Reuters

Italy is in advanced talks with Elon Musk’s SpaceX over a 1.5 billion euro ($1.55 billion) deal for the company to provide secure telecommunications to the government, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. – Reuters

The pro-Russian breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria, left without Russian gas supplies no longer transiting through neighbouring Ukraine, faced longer periods of rolling power cuts on Saturday, local authorities said. – Reuters

Poland launched its presidency of the Council of the European Union on Friday mired in a diplomatic row with Hungary that underscored a deepening sense of political disunity across Europe just as it confronts a raft of major global challenges. – Reuters

France’s former President Nicolas Sarkozy goes on trial Monday over alleged illegal financing of his 2007 presidential campaign by the government of late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. – Associated Press

Mohamed A. El-Erian writes: While avoiding tensions is primarily in the interests of the US and UK, it could also have broader implications at a delicate time for the global economy. American economic exceptionalism has been a reliable engine of global growth in the post-Covid years. Avoiding turbulence in one long-standing partnership as the Trump administration revisits America’s trade arrangements could limit some of the headwinds to that dynamic. – Bloomberg

William Reynolds writes: The incoming, up-gunned national armaments director, in collaboration with a sufficiently empowered Defence Equipment and Support (the organization that negotiates contracts on behalf of the U.K. armed forces), would be suitable to oversee such an endeavor from a more centralized position. Critically, this must be done in lock-step with the upcoming multi-year spending review. It has been 28 years since a previous newly elected Labour government declared that a “strong U.K. defence industry” was a “strategic part” of Britain’s industrial base and defense effort. It would be in its successor’s interests to take a page out of history and reconnect military capability, industrial resilience, and prosperity under a “One Defence” umbrella. – War on the Rocks

The Americas

Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has in recent years secured the freedom of his top financier and two of his nephews in prisoner exchanges with the Biden administration. Now, the regime is stocking up on foreign detainees—including Americans—who analysts say could serve as bargaining chips with the incoming Trump administration and allied governments. – Wall Street Journal

Chile’s president visited the South Pole on Friday in a bid to fortify his country’s territorial claims to part of Antarctica, as competition in the region is growing bit by bit. Gabriel Boric, the president, and a delegation of officials visited Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, a U.S. research base; it was the first time, his office said, that a Latin American president in office had set foot on the South Pole. – New York Times

Ecuador’s former Vice President Jorge Glas was returned to prison hours after he was temporarily evacuated for security reasons amid chaotic scenes inside the jail, the country’s prison authority said on Sunday. – Reuters

A second group of 75 Guatemalan soldiers arrived in the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince on Saturday to boost a United Nations-backed mission tasked with restoring order amid chaos wrought by gangs, the mission said. – Reuters

Four Indigenous people, including a child, were shot during an attack in southern Brazil late on Friday, federal police and an Indigenous rights organization said on Saturday, as violence escalates in the region. – Reuters

Honduras President Xiomara Castro ’s comments earlier this week threatening to stop her country’s cooperation with the U.S. military if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on promised mass deportations have generated political heat at home, even as the U.S. government has remained silent. – Associated Press

A group of Afghan nationals arrived in the Philippines ⁠on Monday to process special immigrant visas for their resettlement in the United States, as part of an agreement between Manila and Washington. – Associated Press

Arturo Mcfields Yescas writes: The only way to stop China’s accelerated advance in Latin America continues to be democracy and the counterweight of greater leadership from Europe and the U.S. Trade with the U.S. is not a right, it is a privilege. That is why all nations that have a strong relationship with China need to review their priorities. Supporting China is supporting modern slavery and human rights violations but, most importantly, being with China is taking sides with a nation that challenges the economic security of the U.S. – The Hill

United States

Republicans are wrestling over how quickly they can deliver President-elect Donald Trump some legislative wins on his agenda, with House and Senate leaders divided over the speed and scope of any early action and Trump supporting the House late Sunday with a call for “one powerful bill.” – Wall Street Journal

Now, a current of fear is running through a village tethered to Illinois, California and Oregon by the flow of remittances. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history” — taking aim at more than 11 million people living illegally in the United States. Nearly half are Mexican. – Washington Post

Since its U.S. launch in 2018, people have worried that the Chinese-owned social media giant TikTok is vacuuming up data on America’s teenagers and transforming them into modern, digital versions of the throngs who once enthusiastically waved Chairman Mao’s Little Red Book. – The Free Press

President Joe Biden is set to order a ban on new offshore oil and gas development across some 625 million acres of US coastal territory, ruling out the sale of drilling rights in Atlantic and Pacific waters as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Trump should take this into account and reverse course, heeding his own words on Sept. 24 about friendly foreign investment. He said, “Here is the deal that I will be offering to every major company and manufacturer on Earth — I will give you the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs, the lowest regulatory burden, and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet. But only if you make your product here in America. … And hire American workers for the job.” That’s what Nippon Steel wants to do. Trump should live up to the commitment he stated in Savannah, counter the cynical ploy of Biden who is staggering out of the White House in a miasma of shame and hypocrisy, and save American jobs and stockholder value by allowing the sale to proceed. – Washington Examiner

Meir Soloveichik writes: His vision also prevailed in Israel, where almost everyone now sees a Palestinian state as an existential threat to the Jewish one. And to a considerable extent it seems to have prevailed in America, where congressional leaders such Mike Johnson and cabinet nominees like Marco Rubio and Pete Hesgeth speak openly of the role their Christian faith plays in their love for Israel and their concern for its future. – Wall Street Journal

Hal Brands writes: This isn’t to be Pollyannish. A long-term edge won’t save the US if it fails to get ready for a potential near-term military conflict with China. America could sabotage itself by imposing draconian curbs on immigration, throwing away its alliances or abandoning its democratic traditions. But for now, the US retains — and is in many ways increasing — the global strengths it will need for the dangerous times ahead. – Bloomberg

Alexander B. Gray writes: Trump’s comments suggesting a possible American reacquisition of the canal were met with predictable howls from Washington think tanks and even Chinese Communist Party propaganda rags. Yet our forty-fifth and forty-seventh president, much like the fortieth president before him, possesses an innate sense of America’s core national interests, which seems to elude Washington’s great and good. As Trump returns to the Oval Office, this discernment will find a world in desperate need of an American president willing to pursue controversial causes for the strategic advantage of his country and the safety of its citizens. – National Interest

Defense

Their stories overlapped in two shocking acts in the early hours of 2025, with an exploded Tesla Cybertruck in Las Vegas, in what authorities have determined was a suicide, and a terrorist attack that killed 14 in New Orleans. The two episodes have become stark reminders of one of the most persistent and vexing threats facing the U.S. military: a tragic turn toward violence within the ranks, whether from extremist radicalization or mental-health struggles. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon’s strategic capital office will focus its 2025 investments on 15 industry segments it thinks could most support U.S. national security needs, including spacecraft, microelectronics materials and manufacturing and biochemicals. – Defense News

Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro named the sea service’s newest Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Intrepid (DDG-145), the latest to carry that name in the fleet, according to a Friday Navy announcement. – USNI News

The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group is back in the South China Sea following a port visit to Port Klang, Malaysia. Meanwhile, the French Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the Indian Ocean, USNI News has learned. – USNI News

Nearly one in three Marines are reenlisting after their first contract, a sign that the Marine Corps shift to retention, as laid out in Talent Management 2030, is working, Marine personnel officials told reporters. – USNI News

The Marine Corps is launching a new school for staff noncommissioned officers intended to streamline education for more senior Marines and better prepare them for leadership responsibilities in the fleet. – Military.com