Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the “immediate release” of a French-Iranian researcher imprisoned in Iran, officials said Sunday. – Associated Press 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on January 30 that government mismanagement has contributed to Iran’s economic woes, an acknowledgement of problems more frequently blamed on U.S. and other international sanctions. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

French President Emmanuel Macron has told his Iranian counterpart that the 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Tehran can be revived, but ongoing negotiations must speed up and Iran must return to its full obligations under the accord. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The latest round of talks to save the Iran nuclear deal have neared a final stage, diplomats said, after weeks of intense diplomacy in Vienna. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

“The Maximum Pressure campaign has led to the US’s abject failure. These are the words of the US Department of State. Their spokesman stated that the maximum pressure campaign against Iran has led to the US’s abject failure,” Ayatollah Khamenei said during the meeting. – Islamic Republic News Agency 

Experts believe a network of fake websites offering former spies and soldiers in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon espionage work for Israel is a counterintelligence effort run by Iran-linked operatives, according to a report this week. – Times of Israel 

Iran is enlisting militiamen in part of eastern Syria, looking to cement its influence in an area with a key border crossing for moving weapons to allied groups, according to a report Friday. – Times of Israel 

Bob Feferman writes: When the West decides to take the words “Never Again” as seriously as Israelis do, then there will be hope that Iran’s leaders will be held accountable to a higher standard. Not only will the world then refuse to tolerate their threats to genocide against the Jewish state, but it will become unacceptable for Iran to develop the means to commit genocide through their support for terrorists and pursuit of nuclear weapons. – Algemeiner

Syria

Islamic State has been slowly preparing for a comeback in the Syrian and Iraqi territory that it lost nearly three years ago. – Wall Street Journal 

The Islamic State, which once controlled territory the size of Britain that spanned the Syria-Iraq border, is not as powerful as it once was, but experts say it could be biding its time until conditions in the unstable countries where it thrives provide it with new chances to expand. – New York Times 

Syrian air defenses confronted Israeli missiles targeting an area near the capital, Damascus, downing some of them, Syria’s state news agency reported Monday. – Associated Press 

With a spectacular jail break in Syria and a deadly attack on an army barracks in Iraq, the Islamic State group was back in the headlines the past week, a reminder of a war that formally ended three years ago but continues to be fought mostly away from view. – Associated Press 

Nour Al-Ahmad writes: On Thursday, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces announced that Islamic State militants still held a section of Ghweiran prison in northeast Syria, despite a previous announcement on Wednesday that the SDF had regained control of the facility. For the eighth day in a row, despite the initial announcement of victory over these factions, the residents of the southern neighborhoods of the city of Hasakah are still suffering, due to the continuing siege, the shortage of basic necessities and the ongoing sounds of clashes in the background. – Washington Institute

Israel

Israel’s president, making his first visit on Sunday to the United Arab Emirates, said his country supports the Gulf state’s security needs and wants more countries in the region to join its new detente with the Arab world. – Reuters 

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has failed to uphold promises made to purge its curriculum of antisemitic and violent themes, a report by an Israeli education watchdog charged on Thursday. – Algemeiner 

Palestinian sources have said that President Mahmoud Abbas requested the release of security prisoners belonging to the Fatah party, who are held by Israel, Defense Minister Benny Gantz during a meeting last August. – Ynet 

U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein met with Energy Minister Karine Elharrar on Sunday as part of U.S. efforts to demarcate a maritime border between Israel and Lebanon. – Haaretz 

Palestinians have launched a new social media campaign in protest of Hamas’s rule of the Gaza Strip, holding the Islamist movement responsible for poverty, unemployment and harsh economic and humanitarian conditions. – Jerusalem Post 

Hamas security forces were scouring the Gaza Strip over the weekend in search of a man who escaped from a maximum-security prison, Palestinian media reported Sunday. – Times of Israel 

Two Israeli women accused of assisting an Iranian espionage operation have been released to house arrest, Hebrew media reported Friday. – Times of Israel 

Jan Grabowski writes: The assault on the value of Jewish survivor testimony and the legal attack on our knowledge of the past are signs that the memory of the Holocaust is under threat not only by the deaths of survivors, but also by the willful choices of the present generation. The more time distances us from the event, the more heated the exchanges become, and the more forceful the attacks on the memory of the Shoah. – New York Times 

Mark R. Whittington writes: High tech will be the basis of Israel’s relationships with other countries, especially Gulf Nations such as the UAE, whose interests are also defined by a drive to create a commercial technology sector. Indeed, Israel’s relationship with the other countries that comprise the Abraham Accords, the Trump-era agreement that made peace between Israel and a number of Arab Gulf states, will be defined by a paraphrase of an old slogan from the 60s: Make money, not war. That is altogether a beautiful thing. – The Hill 

Yemen

Yemen’s Houthi group said on Monday it had fired a number of ballistic missiles at Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates, and had also fired several drones at Dubai, the regional business hub. – Reuters 

Nearly 1,500 children recruited by Yemen’s Houthi rebels died in fighting in 2020, and hundreds more the following year, the UN says. – BBC 

Maysaa Shuja al-Deen writes: In addition to assessing and monitoring the humanitarian aid operation in Yemen, western leaders must put pressure on the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to receive more Yemeni migrants and apply preferential policies toward Yemeni workers. Furthermore, these belligerent parties must make major contributions to reconstruction in the semi-stable areas of the country. – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

Citing human rights concerns, the United States will not give Egypt $130 million in annual security assistance, officials said on Friday, even as the Biden administration continues to approve billions of dollars in military sales to the Middle Eastern ally. – New York Times 

Oil rose on Monday as a supply shortage and political tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East put prices on track for their biggest monthly gain in almost a year. – Reuters 

An Egyptian court on Sunday sentenced to death 10 members of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood group found guilty of violence against security officers in 2015, a judicial source said. – Agence France-Presse 

China

Foreign news organizations in China are operating at drastically reduced staffing levels, while the foreign journalists still in the country face intimidation, harassment and threats of legal action there, a Beijing-based journalist group said. – Wall Street Journal 

The Chinese economy started the year on an uncertain footing, as Covid-19 flare-ups disrupted factory activity and consumer spending, according to a trio of manufacturing and service sector surveys released Sunday. – Wall Street Journal 

Hong Kong’s leader has left open for more than five months a seat on the panel that selects the city’s judges, three lawyers familiar with the situation said. – Reuters 

A coalition of Christians and Catholics on Monday called on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to drop charges against media tycoon Jimmy Lai and other political activists jailed or in custody under a China-imposed national security law. – Reuters 

The United States is paying athletes to “create disturbances” during the Beijing Winter Olympics, Chinese state media reported Saturday. – Agence France-Presse 

Hong Kong’s oldest university covered up one of the last public tributes to the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown on Saturday, as Beijing continues to muzzle dissent in the financial hub. – Agence France-Presse 

Beijing is closely following Russia’s military buildup along its border with Ukraine, viewing it as a litmus test for political unity in the West and using the mounting tensions as an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Moscow, analysts say. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Editorial: The only language China understands here is comparable economic force. If Beijing won’t stop punishing Lithuania, EU trade retaliation will send a stronger message than a legal filing at the WTO. Killing the EU-China investment deal, agreed to in principle more than a year ago but still not ratified, would get Beijing’s attention. – Wall Street Journal 

Huji Turdi writes: There are ways for athletes to show they care about what is happening to Uyghurs without necessarily risking their safety. […]So, please stand up for the oppressed, the downtrodden and the voiceless in China. Do it for us, for yourselves and for humanity. – Washington Post 

Joseph Votel, Robert Spalding III, and Ramon Marks write: The challenge for the preservation of democratic values and freedoms is profound. The CCP could use an array of demagogic Lil Miquela’s to influence and manipulate public opinion on the internet, undermining democratic values and legitimacy. The ultimate test for the West will turn out to be information war—not conventional or even cyberwar. That kind of contest cannot be fought with fighter aircraft, combat ships, and infantry. Democracy could be compromised without a shot fired. – The National Interest 

Robert Keatley writes: Even so, Hong Kong’s financial center will stay in business as long as it serves Beijing’s interests. Mainland companies rely on its banks and stock exchange to raise cash by selling shares and floating bonds, and its wealthy citizens find it useful for funneling personal funds overseas—sometimes for multimillion-dollar homes in southern California or elsewhere. Hong Kong still has a convertible currency linked to the U.S. dollar, and its commercial law courts remain more predictable than those of the mainland despite being weakened by party mandates. – The National Interest 

Asia

Nationwide protests that erupted Jan. 2 over a fuel price hike quickly turned violent — fomented, many eyewitnesses and rights advocates say, by provocateurs — and were met by a vigorous security crackdown. For weeks, little was known about the tactics used to subdue the protesters — labeled “terrorists” by the government — other than a “shoot to kill” order from the Kazakh president on Jan. 7. – New York Times 

A court in army-ruled Myanmar will start an election fraud trial of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 14, a source familiar with the proceedings said on Monday, after she was accused of influencing the 2020 vote to win a second term in office. – Reuters 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Australia in February to meet counterparts from Japan, India and Australia to discuss Indo-Pacific coordination, the Australian government said on Monday. – Reuters 

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen thanked democratic nations for their support of the island in her Lunar New Year message on Sunday and pledged to “stride out” into the world, sounding a defiant note in the face of unrelenting Chinese pressure. – Reuters 

Taiwan Vice President William Lai wrapped up his visit to the United States and Honduras with a virtual meeting with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a further show of support from Washington for the Chinese-claimed island. – Reuters 

Foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will meet next month to discuss humanitarian aid for Myanmar, the current chair of the grouping, Cambodia, said on Saturday. – Reuters 

Bombers set off at least 13 blasts in a town in southern Thailand overnight, and police killed two suspected insurgents in a separate raid after a 20-hour siege in a nearby province, authorities said on Saturday. – Reuters 

The Chinese ambassador to Washington has warned that the US and China could end up at war over Taiwan, in stark comments illustrating the rising tensions between the powers over the fate of the island. – Financial Times 

Michael J. Green and Evan S. Medeiros write: Fortunately for Biden, prioritizing the Indo-Pacific has bipartisan backing. […]At a time when the United States’ domestic politics are in turmoil, U.S. allies and partners in the region would see this bipartisan support as uniquely reassuring, which could prompt them to assume more risk in their initiatives with Washington. That may be essential to Asia’s future. If the United States is going to stay consistently involved in the region, its policies will need to have deep bipartisan and transnational support. It cannot afford to pause its engagement. – Foreign Affairs 

Matthew P. Goodman and William Reinsch write: An effectively structured and managed Indo-Pacific economic framework could advance U.S. interests in a critical region and convince partners there that the United States is reliably and durably committed to regional economic affairs. Indeed, success in this endeavor is imperative, or the United States will fall further behind in the race to set the world’s economic rules and norms. – The Hill 

Alan Tidwell writes: Taken together, these five steps would make significant advances in U.S. engagement and involvement in the Pacific Islands. By creating a strategy predicated on durable engagement, the United States would position itself in the region with a rationale inclusive of strategic competition but also stretching to areas of non-traditional security concerns. – War on the Rocks 

Europe

An unexploded long-range Russian rocket, brought here from the war-torn Donetsk region to the south, sticks out from the ground opposite the government headquarters of Ukraine’s second-largest city. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. officials tried to persuade Europe for years to buy American natural gas as a bulwark against Russia, with the Trump administration dubbing it “molecules of freedom.” But most countries stuck with the cheaper Russian supplies, with some expressing environmental concern about the fruits of U.S. fracking. – Wall Street Journal 

Italian lawmakers re-elected President Sergio Mattarella as head of state, ending a week of quarreling over other possible candidates that threatened to undermine the stability of the government. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine’s leader implored his fellow citizens to ignore the rumors of an impending catastrophe with his trademark combination of frankness and emotion, amid warnings from Washington officials that Russia could attack at any moment. – Washington Post 

The British government ordered its armed forces to prepare to deploy across Europe as a result of the Ukraine crisis on Saturday, as Ukrainian authorities reported a renewal of cyberattacks and Russia agreed to move a planned naval exercise off Ireland’s coast following an outcry by local fishermen. – Washington Post 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday criticized Western nations, including the United States, for their handling of Russia’s military buildup at his border, taking aim at his most important security partners as his own military braced for a potential attack. – Washington Post 

British lawmakers will be asked to consider legislation this week that would let ministers impose a wider range of sanctions against Russia should it move against Ukraine, the British foreign secretary said Sunday. – New York Times 

NATO has no plans to deploy combat troops to non-NATO member Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Sunday. – Reuters 

Europe needs to diversify its energy supplies, the head of NATO said on Sunday, as Britain warned it was “highly likely” that Russia, the continent’s biggest natural gas supplier, was looking to invade Ukraine. – Reuters 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will on Monday announce a ‘Brexit Freedoms Bill’ to make it easier to remove or amend European Union regulations that were copied into the country’s law before it left the bloc. – Reuters 

Spain has urged Nato not to neglect its southern flank even as the military alliance responds to the Ukraine crisis by deploying forces in central Europe and the Black Sea. – Financial Times 

Editorial: The main problem, though, is China’s position and its bullying of two much smaller and weaker nations. Whatever else happens, Lithuania should not reverse its opening to Taiwan, which the United States, correctly, supported. Far better for Lithuania, and for its allies on both sides of the Atlantic, to err on the side of democratic solidarity. – Washington Post 

Jillian Kay Melchoir writes: Discipline matters as Ukraine faces an adversary looking for a plausible excuse to launch an attack. Ukrainians also worry that Mr. Putin will try to destabilize their country. Chaos, panic and violence could provide an opening for him to promote one of his puppets here as a “peacemaker,” who would then invite Russian intervention to restore stability. So it’s important to guard against Russian infiltration of these civilian defense and resistance groups. – Wall Street Journal 

William Kourtney and Khrystyna Holynska write: Ukraine has traveled far. Over time, discouraging Russian imperial coercion may depend in large part on whether Ukraine overcomes poverty and stifling corruption and becomes a resilient democracy. Accelerating reforms might be the country’s best long-term defense. A stronger Ukraine could demonstrate that geographical or ethnic proximity does not consign it to an unhappy fate. – The Hill 

Wesley Culp writes: Lukashenko’s assertion Friday that Belarus would fight alongside Russia if either country was attacked demonstrates how thoroughly the country has aligned itself with Russia. Ukraine and countries on NATO’s eastern flank such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia can no longer be as sure as they could in the past that Minsk would not act as a foil for Russian aggression. – The Hill 

Adam Kovacevich writes: A historical precedent holds that neither US nor EU laws should discriminate against the other’s companies. The DMA threatens basic obligations central to the World Trade Organization’s established Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement. The EU must not be allowed to single out America’s largest employers. It is a slippery slope. These guidelines protect US companies from EU governance and other countries from undue regulation from the US. – Center for European Policy Analysis  

Pierre Morcos and Colin Wall write: These tensions are amplified by the global outlook of European navies that are increasingly overstretched as they try to strike a difficult balance between the European theater and distant regions like the Indo-Pacific. The shift toward high-end platforms is also challenged by the need to address persisting low-end challenges, such as piracy and illegal trafficking. These low-intensity, forward-presence missions tend to hinder the warfighting readiness of European navies. – War on the Rocks 

Brennan Deveraux writes: Consequently, while reversing NATO expansion is a non-starter for many in the West, a potential arms agreement concerning the formerly banned missiles is not only a realistic goal, but it is something that all parties have expressed a willingness to work towards. In this context, if successful negotiations occur, missiles will be the likely focal point. Consequently, the United States may have to concede the tactical and operational benefits that theater-support missiles could provide in Europe for the potential strategic victory of defusing the tensions on the Ukraine border. – War on the Rocks 

Liana Fix and Steven Keil write: If anything, Russia’s first intervention in 2014 demonstrated how Putin’s behavior can catalyze a significant shift in German policy and the perception of Russia. Germany under the leadership of Angela Merkel broke with its old “Ostpolitik” paradigm and shepherded Europe toward a common sanctions policy toward Russia. It did this in lockstep with the United States. Furthermore, it became a lead nation for NATO’s battlegroup in Lithuania. This gives reason for optimism that Germany will come along. – The National Interest 

The Americas

A retired Venezuelan army general says U.S. officials at the highest levels of the CIA and other federal agencies were aware of his efforts to oust Nicolás Maduro — a role he says should immediately debunk criminal charges that he worked alongside the socialist leader to flood the U.S. with cocaine. – Associated Press 

Canada will temporarily withdraw non-essential Canadian employees and remaining dependents from its embassy in Ukraine, the foreign ministry said on Sunday, amid an international standoff over Russian troops massed on the country’s borders. – Reuters 

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: It provided Venezuela an excuse to militarize the border, bringing in Chinese-made combat planes and Russian-made reconnaissance drones. Framing Venezuela as an opponent of the illegal armed groups, Mr. Maduro and Russia now run a disinformation campaign to establish moral equivalency between the Colombian democracy and the Venezuelan dictatorship. – Wall Street Journal 

Michael Taube writes: If Canada really stands with Ukraine, waving flimsy paper signs isn’t enough. In this important moment in history, Trudeau needs to find something he’s always lacked as a world leader: a backbone. – Washington Post 

Defense

Key components of the U.S. Army’s modernized tactical network approach received poor marks from the Pentagon’s weapon tester in its annual report, alleging the service must overcome several challenges to demonstrate operational effectiveness, suitability and survivability. – Defense News 

The Pentagon should refocus cybersecurity efforts on human defenders instead of primarily relying on new technologies to protect networks, the department’s weapon tester asserted in its annual report. – Defense News 

The Pentagon’s independent weapons tester has eliminated data about the performance of more than 20 weapon programs from the public version of its 2021 report, including major acquisition efforts like the Marine Corps’ CH-53K King Stallion and the Navy’s Ford-class carrier. – Breaking Defense  

Matthew R. Costlow writes: Mr. Biden helped usher through many nuclear arms-control treaties during his time in the Senate. It may cut against his political instincts, but the president’s duty now is to chart a path for U.S. nuclear expansion, and build the weapons—offensive and defensive—necessary to deter China and Russia before it is too late. – Wall Street Journal 

Fred Fleitz writes: For the above reasons, Biden’s national security staff will probably resist missile defense spending. Instead, the staff will remain susceptible and fall to pressure from liberal arms control groups who hope to curtail missile defense programs. – The National Interest