Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

At the tail end of an hourlong news conference, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a startling accusation. Israeli soldiers died during the Gaza war because of a shortage of ammunition caused in part by the United States holding back some weapons deliveries. – New York Times

The Trump administration is hosting senior defense and intelligence officials from Israel and Saudi Arabia for separate talks on Iran this week in Washington as U.S. President Donald Trump considers military strikes, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

U.S. Agency for International Development staffers in early 2024 drafted a warning to senior officials in Joe Biden’s administration: Northern Gaza had turned into an “Apocalyptic Wasteland” with dire shortages of food and medical aid. – Reuters

Israel released 15 bodies of Palestinians killed during its war in Gaza, three days after recovering the remains of the last hostage, in moves mediators hope will pave the way to carrying out the next stage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan. – Reuters

Hamas was a “big factor in the return of hostages from Gaza,” US President Donald Trump said during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. Trump also said that it “looked like Hamas would disarm.” – Jerusalem Post

During the Israel-Hamas War, the IDF sometimes avoided killing certain Gazan terrorists who knew where Israeli hostages were being held, a senior IDF Intelligence Corps commander reported Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

The volume of humanitarian aid trucks should be reduced from 600 to around 200 per day as part of Phase II of the US ceasefire plan, IDF sources recommended on Thursday, since pre- and post-war professional evaluations show that the Gazan population only requires 200 trucks per day. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was holding a security consultation in Jerusalem with top advisers and defense officials on a “classified topic,” the office of one of the attendees told The Times of Israel on Thursday, as speculation continued to swirl over whether the US will attack Iran. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces believes that the Hamas-run health ministry’s death toll from the war in the Gaza Strip has been largely accurate, a senior Israeli military official acknowledged on Thursday. – Times of Israel

A draft resolution laying out the powers of various bodies tasked with managing postwar Gaza under US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative appears to limit the significance of a panel that had sparked worries in Israel. – Times of Israel

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit confirmed that overnight (Friday), IDF troops identified eight terrorists who emerged from underground terrorist infrastructure in eastern Rafah. – Arutz Sheva

The IDF warned on Thursday morning that the Hamas terrorist organization is strengthening significantly due to the volume of humanitarian trucks entering the Gaza Strip daily, as well as thanks to smuggling carried out through additional routes into the Strip. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial:  Whatever arms can be removed from Gaza will help, whether “the easy way” or “the hard way,” as Mr. Trump likes to say. But Mr. Netanyahu is unlikely to compromise on the end result. Israel will hold elections this year, and its Prime Minister can hardly face voters with Hamas armed and ruling half of Gaza. This means Hamas is on the clock now that all the hostages are out, with little time to stall. That isn’t the worst prospect for whatever U.S.-negotiated disarmament process emerges. The threat of Israeli military action remains Mr. Kushner’s best leverage. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Allies are not interchangeable, and Israel, more than any country, understands how quickly a narrative hardens into “truth.” Israel should express gratitude to President Biden and the American people for what they did when Israel was under fire. Israel should also thank President Trump for his support. Then Israel should stop treating Washington as a prop in Israeli politics and return to the only posture that protects us: unity at home, honesty about our needs, and bipartisan strength abroad. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Israel has tried, through military force, to make hostage-taking not worth the cost. The devastation in Gaza and the severe degradation of Hamas’s capabilities are meant to send that message. But as long as hostage deals remain wildly asymmetric – and as long as terrorists believe that Israeli society will always force its leaders’ hands – the incentive to take hostages will remain. If Israel ever hopes to break the cycle, it will need clear, firm guidelines anchored in law. The time to set those guidelines is now, during that rare interlude when no Israeli – dead or alive – is in Hamas’ clutches. – Jerusalem Post

Daniel J. Samet writes:  During Mr. Trump’s first term, analysts claimed that his Middle East policy was too favorable to Israel to facilitate peace agreements. Yet his administration orchestrated the historic Abraham Accords, which cemented full relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Mr. Trump’s creativity and vitality may be just what Gaza requires today. The Board of Peace deserves a fair hearing. It could very well fail to rebuild Gaza, where immense challenges remain. But it should be given a chance to succeed. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Predicting success in Middle East negotiations is often a mistake. As a colleague warned me 45 years ago, when it comes to this region, “pessimism pays.” But the Gaza reconstruction effort is better organized than many commentators seem to realize, and any sensible person should wish success for the Board of Peace and its courageous Palestinian representatives. – Washington Post

Russia and Ukraine

Kyrylo Horbenko represented the future of the Ukrainian army. Immediately after turning 18, he joined a program that fast-tracks military careers for Ukraine’s youngest recruits, hoping front-line experience would help him secure a spot at a military academy he hadn’t had the money to attend. – Wall Street Journal

Despite optimistic pronouncements from President Donald Trump and other U.S. officials about imminent results in efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Moscow’s top diplomat on Thursday rejected a central condition of the proposed deal. – Washington Post

President Trump said on Thursday that the Kremlin had agreed to a temporary pause in its missile attacks on Kyiv amid the fierce cold in the Ukrainian capital, a shift that, if true, would represent the latest sign that Ukraine-Russia peace talks are gaining momentum. – New York Times

For years, Domodedovo Airport was a Russian success story. After being privatized in the 1990s, it grew to become Moscow’s second-largest airport. British Airways, Lufthansa and other international airlines chose Domodedovo over its state-owned rivals as a base, making it the Russian capital’s primary gateway to the world. It has now been sold — at a fire-sale price. – New York Times

Lukoil, one of Russia’s largest oil companies, said Thursday that it was in talks to sell its foreign assets to an American investment firm, approaching a deal that would end months of geopolitical turmoil after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Lukoil last year to put pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. – New York Times

The United States and Russia could embark on an unrestrained nuclear arms race for the first time since the Cold War, unless they reach an eleventh-hour deal before their last remaining arms control treaty expires in less than a week. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he expected the implementation of an agreement by Russia not to fire on Kyiv and other cities for a week because of winter weather, as announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Ukraine is working with Elon Musk’s SpaceX to stop Russia from guiding drones using the firm’s Starlink internet system, the defence minister said on Thursday, after Kyiv said it had found Starlinks on long-range drones used in Russian attacks. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia had reiterated its invitation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to come to Moscow for peace talks, as U.S.-led efforts to reach a deal to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine intensify. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine said on Thursday that they had carried out the latest exchange of their war dead, a regular practice designed to allow relatives of those killed on the battlefield to bury their loved ones. – Reuters

The leader of Russia’s Chechnya region, Ramzan Kadyrov, said on Thursday that he was opposed to talks on ending the war in Ukraine and that Moscow should fight on. – Reuters

Pippa Crawford writes: International organizations have already been working with the Ukrainian Water Association, and a land reclamation project was launched in January with US support. Those involved hope that providing Ukrainian farmers with modern irrigation equipment and restoring land to its prewar state will increase Ukraine’s usable farmland by as much as 1 million hectares. But this is only one element of the massive task of restoring water security. Civil society has links to communities on the ground, and in many cases has already identified areas for private sector involvement. When the time comes to rebuild Ukraine and restore clean water to everyone, civil society should remain at the heart of the work. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

A number of Middle Eastern governments are trying to push the U.S. and Iran into talks to head off a possible conflict, efforts that so far are failing to gain traction as both sides dig in. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday told his UAE counterpart Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan that Russia was closely monitoring the situation in Iran and wanted to discuss it with him in Kremlin talks. – Reuters

The United Nations food agency is shutting down its operations in the northern, rebel-held part of Yemen, following restrictions imposed by the Houthi rebels and harassment from the Iranian-backed group, U.N. officials said Thursday. – Associated Press

US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) met with the Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia, Khalid bin Salman. “Over the years, I have developed a strong working relationship with Saudi Arabia. I know President Trump is a strong admirer of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. I have seen the changes the Crown Prince has embraced and I have been impressed,” Senator Graham stated. – Arutz Sheva

China

China has agreed to cut its tariffs in half on whisky from the U.K. during Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing, the U.K. government said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

To understand how China’s economy is now experiencing both the best and the worst of times, consider the port city of Ningbo, a two-hour drive south of Shanghai. – New York Times

The purging of China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, last week, was a stunning display of Mr. Xi’s autocratic dominance over the military, the ultimate source of power for Chinese leaders. But the hollowing out of the People’s Liberation Army’s leadership also complicates Mr. Xi’s longstanding ambition to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control, by force if he deems it necessary. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump said it was dangerous for Britain to be getting into business with Beijing, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer lauded the economic benefits of resetting relations with China during a visit there on Friday. – Reuters

China agreed to relax rules to allow some visa-free travel for British citizens on Thursday during a visit by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Beijing, as part of a partnership deal which London hopes will help expand its service sector. – Reuters

China’s coast guard patrolled Japan-administered islands in the East China Sea almost daily last year, it said on Friday, aiming to secure its sovereignty over the remote, rocky outpost and to deter Taiwan from taking steps toward independence. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in the Chinese financial center of Shanghai on Friday in his bid to boost business opportunities for U.K. firms in the world’s second-largest economy, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a possible opposition to any deal between Beijing and London. – Associated Press

US Ambassador to China David Perdue called out Beijing for what he described as intrusive export licensing requirements as the leaders of the world’s two largest economies edge closer to meeting in Beijing. – Bloomberg

China indicated that an anti-graft purge roiling the People’s Liberation Army won’t impede its plans for eventually taking control of self-run Taiwan, while also brushing aside doubts about the effectiveness of its military in the wake of the ouster of top generals. – Bloomberg

Beijing’s newest class of surface combatant achieved operational capability, Chinese military media reported last week. – USNI News

Christopher Johnson writes: U.S. policymakers and force planners should take Xi’s top-to-bottom purge of the officer corps as a sign of his impatience with the PLA’s failure to meet his operational requirements—and not mistake such impatience for fear or distrust of the military. He is apparently so frustrated by his commanders’ penchant for putting cash in their pockets instead of building warfighting capacity that he is willing to risk increased vulnerability, at home and abroad, to get them to do their jobs. That does not mean that Xi is rushing toward war, but he is fond of using centenaries to force progress in the Chinese system, and the PLA will celebrate its hundredth birthday next year. He wants it to be ready to “fight and win wars” when that anniversary rolls around. – Foreign Affairs

Paul Heer writes: This farcical position is based in part on the tenuous and probably unsustainable assertion that Taiwan’s status has remained “undetermined” since World War II. And that legalistic US position both obscures and sidesteps the inherent dilemma of Washington’s “one China policy,” which is both melting and walking on thin ice. Ultimately, the only way to escape this dilemma will be for Washington to clarify the substance and meaning of “our one China policy” credibly and persuasively. Doing so may be the only way to avert a war over Taiwan. – National Interest

Asia

Once a long-shot fringe candidate, Takaichi, 64, has enjoyed an unusually long honeymoon period since taking office in October — thanks in large part to support from younger Japanese like Kubota, who are drawn to the novelty of a female prime minister and find Takaichi’s unconventional leadership style a refreshing change. – Washington Post

Myanmar’s military-backed party has completed a sweeping victory in the country’s three-phase general election, state media said, cementing an outcome long expected after a tightly controlled political process held during civil war and widespread repression. – Reuters

Any attempt to change Taiwan’s status quo by force or coercion cannot bring true peace, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said in a letter to Pope Leo released by the presidential office on Friday – Reuters

Thailand’s progressive People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut continued to lead opinion polls on Friday, highlighting the stiff challenge facing Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s bid to stay in power ahead of elections on February 8. – Reuters

Australia on Friday said it would support its critical mineral supply chains after the U.S. stepped back from plans to guarantee a minimum price for such projects. – Reuters

Taiwan completed the maiden underwater sea trial for its first domestically developed submarine on Thursday, a big milestone in a project aimed at strengthening deterrence against the Chinese navy and protecting vital sea lanes in the event of war. – Reuters

New Zealand decided against accepting U.S. President Donald Trump’s invitation to join his Board of Peace, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose foreign ministers met in the Philippines this week, faces a complex regional agenda. – Reuters

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations does not recognize the recently held elections in Myanmar, the first since the army seized power in 2021, the Philippine foreign secretary said Thursday. – Associated Press

By 2017, Myanmar’s military had allegedly killed thousands of Muslim Rohingya, a massacre now being pursued as genocide at the International Court of Justice. A central figure accused of fanning the violence is one of the country’s most powerful monks, once dubbed the “Face of Buddhist Terror” on the cover of Time magazine. – Bloomberg

Dan Blumenthal, Mike Kuiken, and Randy Schriver write: The United States and Japan stand at a pivotal juncture. As Tokyo continues to take bold steps to prepare for an era of prolonged confrontation with China, Washington’s commitment is wavering. Tokyo has done the hard part. Now it is time for Washington to step up. If it doesn’t, it will prove Beijing right—that the United States’ alliances are temporary, its promises are hollow, and its power is in decline. – Foreign Affairs

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez writes: The next natural step for this friendship would be a visit by the sitting US president to Astana, which would include another leaders’ summit with Central Asian leaders in situ. This hypothetical, but strongly advisable, visit would be both symbolic and historic, marking the beginning of a new chapter in US-Kazakhstan and US-Central Asia relations. – National Interest

Africa

Hundreds of thousands of people across southern Africa have been displaced from their homes after heavy rains brought some of the worst flooding the region has seen in decades. – New York Times

Islamist militants backed by armed drones raided an army base in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state, killing several troops in the early hours of Thursday, the military said, in the second assault reported there this week. – Reuters

Burkina Faso’s military-led government has dissolved all political parties and scrapped the legal framework governing their operations, according to a decree approved by the West African nation’s council of ministers on Thursday. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres is “deeply concerned” by continued escalation of violence in South Sudan, a spokesperson said on Thursday, while reiterating the world body chief’s call to protect civilians. – Reuters

Benin’s Islamic bond sale is encouraging other African states to consider sharia-compliant financing, after robust demand highlighted the potential to diversify funding and attract a broader investor base, advisers and analysts said. – Reuters

Mozambique and TotalEnergies agreed on Thursday to relaunch construction on the French energy major’s $20 billion liquefied natural gas project in the country, even as they continue negotiations over additional costs linked to delays. – Reuters

Ethiopian Airlines cancelled flights to Tigray on Thursday and residents of the northern region rushed to try to withdraw cash from banks after clashes between regional and national forces raised fears of renewed conflict. – Reuters

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called on the Trump administration to respect his country’s sovereignty after a group advocating for Alberta’s secession from Canada said it had met with State Department officials about the province’s future. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and apply tariffs on imports in retaliation for what he described as the country’s refusal to certify U.S.-made Gulfstream jets. – Wall Street Journal

The Supreme Court of Panama has annulled a contract for a Hong Kong company to operate two ports at either end of the Panama Canal breach the country’s constitution, handing President Trump a victory for his security ambitions in the Western Hemisphere and denting China’s influence in the region. – Wall Street Journal

Canada, facing U.S. tariffs that threaten its auto industry, announced on Thursday an agreement with South Korea to explore bringing Korean automotive manufacturing to the country. – New York Times

Costa Ricans head into Sunday’s elections with polls indicating that a right-wing populist is the clear frontrunner, amid a surge of drug trafficking and violence that has eroded the country’s image as a peaceful tourist haven. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke on Thursday about trade and security, as both governments geared up for high-stakes negotiations later this year about their trilateral trade deal with Canada. – Reuters

The United States and El Salvador signed an agreement on Thursday aimed at encouraging investment in the exploration and export of critical minerals, which U.S. President Donald Trump has described as essential to economic and national security. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council criticized Haitian authorities Thursday for the lack of progress in achieving a political transition and called for urgent security sector reforms to tackle increasing violence by gangs and criminal groups. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Chinese artificial intelligence chipmaker Axera Semiconductor is aiming to raise HK$2.96 billion ($379.2 million) in an initial public offering in Hong Kong, a regulatory filing showed on Friday. – Reuters

India’s chief economic adviser proposed age-based limits on access to social media platforms he said were “predatory” in their approach to keeping users online, signalling a potential blow to Meta and YouTube in their largest user market. – Reuters

Former Google software engineer Linwei Ding was convicted by a federal jury in San Francisco on Thursday of stealing AI trade secrets from the U.S. tech giant to benefit two Chinese companies he was secretly working for, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S. Army Lieutenant General Joshua Rudd, President Donald Trump’s pick to head the National Security Agency, said on Thursday he is in favor of keeping broad foreign surveillance powers introduced following the September 11, 2001, attacks. – Reuters

The U.S. government wants the rest of the world to adopt its artificial intelligence cybersecurity standards, a top official with the Office of the National Cyber Director said Thursday. – CyberScoop

A North Korea-backed threat group operating since 2009 has splintered into three distinct groups with specialized malware and objectives, CrowdStrike said in a report released Thursday. – CyberScoop

A cyberattack on a major bread producer in Russia’s Vladimir region has disrupted food deliveries, local media reported. – The Record

Latvia’s security agency has warned that Russia’s cyberattacks and sabotage campaigns against the country show no sign of slowing, even though most incidents so far have failed to cause serious disruption. – The Record

Websites for the RAMP cybercrime forum, a notorious Russian marketplace widely used by ransomware groups and initial access brokers, have been replaced with a splash page declaring they have been seized by the FBI. – The Record

Tom Tugendhat and Christopher Ahlberg write: For countries outside the U.S. and China, this doesn’t mean the race is over, but it is narrowing. Some will align closely with one of the leaders. Others will seek partnerships to secure influence at the margins. Few will be able to sustain the fiction of full independence. AI sovereignty isn’t a prize many nations can win. The strategic task then is to determine how to retain agency when technological power is concentrating rather than dispersing. – Wall Street Journal