Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israeli delegation to resume ceasefire talks in Doha, PM's office says Israel struggles to deter escalating attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels as other fronts calm Israel claims senior Hamas leader killed in Gaza strike Biden given options for potential US attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, Axios reports CFR’s Ray Takeyh: Jimmy Carter vs. Iran: The untold story revealed in the archives WINEP’s Richard Nephew: A last chance for Iran Israel said to hit defense facility, scientific research center near Syria’s Aleppo Israeli military destroys Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon China hits dozens of U.S. companies with trade controls U.S. weighs ban on Chinese drones, citing national security concerns Fears grow of Islamic State’s re-emergence in Syria National Review Institute’s Douglas Murray: From college campuses to Afghanistan, we let Islamic terrorism rise againIn The News
Israel
The U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or Unrwa, is the largest aid organization operating in the Palestinian territories. It has about a month left before it is paralyzed by new Israeli legislation. – Wall Street Journal
Talks between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages have appeared to make little headway, according to officials familiar with the discussions, as the clock runs down on the Biden administration’s remaining days to reach an agreement on a cease-fire. – New York Times
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a delegation to resume ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, his office said on Thursday in a statement. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was released from hospital on Thursday after his prostate surgery ended “successfully,” his office reported on X. – Reuters
Israeli airstrikes killed at least 50 people, including several children, across the Gaza Strip, hitting Hamas security officers and an Israeli-declared humanitarian zone. – Associated Press
The rockets from Gaza have mostly fallen silent. A ceasefire with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon has taken hold. But repeated fire from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a faraway foe, is proving a stubborn threat for Israel. – Associated Press
The failure of the United Nations to get aid to Gaza past Hamas and into the hands of suffering civilians is leading to increasing calls in Israel to end humanitarian assistance altogether. – New York Sun
The Israeli military claimed an airstrike launched early on Thursday morning killed a senior member of Hamas’ internal security apparatus. Palestinian officials reported that the strike in Gaza killed nine other people, including three children – Newsweek
Iran
Italy’s foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador on Thursday to demand the immediate release of reporter Cecilia Sala, who was seized in Tehran on Dec. 19 while working under a regular journalistic visa. – Reuters
Ardavan Yousefi has gotten so used to life under Iran’s sweeping internet restrictions that for him, a recent decision to lift a ban on messaging service WhatsApp went virtually unnoticed. – Agence France-Presse
United States President Joe Biden was presented with potential options for a US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, according to an exclusive Axios report, citing three sources with knowledge on the issue. – Jerusalem Post
Ray Takeyh writes: Jimmy Carter did not lose Iran, but he misunderstood it. He seemed to believe that one of the great populist revolutions of the 20th century could be stopped by foreigners. He failed to appreciate that his royalist allies were broken men eager to abandon their inheritance. His coup scheme seems fantastic in retrospect given the timidity of the shah’s generals in the face of a determined popular rebellion. And he assumed that a regime born out of a revolution that enjoyed popular legitimacy—at least at the start—could be displaced by a committee operating out of the White House. – Wall Street Journal
Kelly Campa, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter write: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s senior advisor, Ali Larijani, justified Iran’s actions in Syria, reaffirmed support of the Axis of Resistance, and linked future Iran-Syria relations to the conduct of new Syrian leaders. Larijani highlighted Soleimani’s fundamental role in the Axis of Resistance. […] Larijani’s speech takes a more defensive tone by framing recent setbacks as temporary and reaffirming Iran’s commitment to its regional objectives. It is notable, however, that Larijani linked future Iran-Syria relations to the conduct of the new Syrian leaders. Other Iranian officials and ex-officials, such as former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei, have advocated for Iran to support resistance movements in Syria against HTS. – Institute for the Study of War
Richard Nephew writes: But that buffer is long gone; Iran has been breaking out since it started producing 60 percent enriched uranium, in 2021. The relative quiet of the present nuclear crisis between Iran and the United States speaks more to the raging nature of wars elsewhere than to restraint on Tehran’s part or effective diplomacy on Washington’s. There is no guarantee that the crisis will remain quiescent for much longer. The fact that military force may be necessary to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout should be seen as a bipartisan policy failure. The downsides of a strike are grave, and so the safer course is to make another attempt at negotiation. But if that fails, Washington must be ready. – Foreign Affairs
Russia & Ukraine
Russia said on Thursday it had attacked energy facilities in Ukraine that support Kyiv’s military-industrial complex. – Reuters
The Ukrainian military said it had carried out a high-precision strike on Thursday on a Russian command post in Maryino, in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces hold chunks of territory after a major incursion. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could be decisive in the outcome of the 34-month-old war with Russia and help stop Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. – Reuters
After backlash about a public relations photo shoot featuring a Ukrainian soldier sporting Nazi symbol patches on his equipment, the Ukrainian Border Guard deleted the offending social media post on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
The Russian Navy accepted the fifth in a class of advanced nuclear attack submarines that is set to be based near Norway, Moscow announced last week. – USNI News
An Estonian tech startup has developed a miniature missile designed to counter low-flying drones that it plans to test in Ukraine this month, as Russian drone attacks continue to cause havoc across the war-torn country. – Defense News
Editorial: Meanwhile, the EU should standardize enforcement measures, which differ by member state, and ensure that sufficient resources are devoted to the effort. Requiring shipowners to submit more detailed paperwork, with breakdowns for various services, would make it harder to falsify attestations. Sanctions are nearly always subject to leaks and cheats. Nevertheless, they have raised the costs of war for Putin, whose economy is under serious strain. They also provide Ukraine and Western leaders — including self-avowed dealmaker Donald Trump — some much-needed bargaining power. In what time he has left, Biden should aim to leave his successor as much of that leverage as he can. – Bloomberg
Patricia Cohen writes: Yet even the most valuable bargaining chips that may derive from sanctions may not be enough to persuade Mr. Putin to agree to a settlement that is also acceptable to Ukraine and its neighboring European allies.Some political and military analysts argue that the fall of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Russia’s ally, may cause Mr. Putin to take an even tougher stance in Ukraine. In the end, the only valuation of sanctions as a bargaining chip that really counts is Mr. Putin’s. – New York Times
Michael Poznansky and William C. Wohlforth write: Additionally, the use of Cold War-era analogies—or even analogies from the war in Ukraine—might go out the window if the United States decided to deploy troops to defend Taiwan. There is no historical case of two nuclear-armed great powers engaged in direct combat, something policymakers and analysts worried about during the Cold War but which never came to pass. In such a scenario, reading and responding to the escalation thresholds that would govern how the conflict played out will require a great deal of communication, learning, and potentially salami slicing. – Foreign Affairs
Aura Sabadus writes: And yet the consequences of Ukraine’s decision are manifold. Russia won’t be able to replace the $6.5bn it formerly made in pipeline gas sales since the route via Turkey has limited transmission capacity. And it is doubtful it could ramp up liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to fill the gap. In two years’ time, we must assume, Europe will finally end its addiction to cheap Russian imports and free itself from a ruthless dealer. It has taken a decision by Ukraine, a non-EU member, to remind the continent of the duty to clean up its act. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Francis Harris writes: This is far from unlikely — the Russian plot to murder the chief executive of German arms maker Rheinmetall and other senior figures in Europe’s defense industries was only foiled because of US counter-intelligence efforts. We must assume there will be more such efforts from Russian intelligence. And that some will be successful. Perhaps that is unavoidable — many Ukrainians would certainly make that argument. But the risk remains that authoritarian states with their enormous security forces are better equipped and far more willing to do things that democracies fear even to consider. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Afghanistan
The Taliban rejected a Pakistani official’s claim that the group asked for money to remove Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan fighters from the border areas and move them to other parts of Afghanistan. The Taliban’s spokesperson, Hamdullah Fitrat, told local media that the allegations were unfounded. – Voice of America
John F. Sopko writes: In Afghanistan, the office of the special inspector general was often the only government agency reliably reporting on the situation on the ground, and we faced stiff opposition from officials in the Departments of Defense and State, USAID and the organizations that supported their programs. We were able to do our work only because Congress granted us the freedom to operate independently. Inspectors general for the military, State Department and USAID, however, do not enjoy such autonomy. If we are going to fix a broken system that puts bureaucrats and special interests ahead of taxpayers, the first step is to make all federal inspectors general as fully independent as my office has been. – New York Times
Delaney Simon, Graeme Smith, and Jerome Drevon write: Waiting and watching is a self-defeating strategy and does nothing for desperate Syrians. Nor does it do anything to keep the country from collapsing. Syria now stands at a crossroads: one path offers a chance to rebuild and reengage with the world, and the other leads toward deeper isolation and suffering for the Syrian people. International actors should learn from their failures in Afghanistan and move decisively. They should seize the chance to push HTS to make concessions that would set Syria on a path toward economic recovery and sustainable governance while taking credible steps to address international security concerns. A strong global response can reduce the chances of another Afghanistan-style tragedy. – Foreign Affairs
Syria
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he was preparing to re-establish diplomatic ties with Syria, less than a month after the overthrow of the Russia-backed government in Damascus. – Reuters
The German and French foreign ministers are heading to Damascus to send what the German minister said is a clear signal that a “political new beginning” between Europe and Syria is possible. – Associated Press
A Russian Telegram channel has claimed that Bashar al Assad may have been poisoned, sparking online speculation about the fate of the Syrian dictator after he fled to Moscow following his downfall. – Newsweek
Syrian media reported an Israeli airstrike near Aleppo late Thursday, the latest such attack since the overthrow of longtime strongman Bashar al-Assad last month. – Agence France Presse
Smadar Perry writes: In Israel, intelligence agencies closely monitor events in Syria and attempt to decode whether there is truly a “new” al-Sharaa or merely a rebranded version of his former self. His demand for women to wear head coverings has not gone unnoticed. Has he genuinely reinvented himself? The pieces of the puzzle have yet to fully align. The IDF continues its operations in Syria, and all eyes remain on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who ultimately holds significant influence over the unfolding events. – Ynet
Lebanon
The Israeli military said on Thursday that it had attacked and destroyed medium-range rocket launchers at a Hezbollah military site in southern Lebanon. – Reuters
The main US negotiator of the fledgling ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah will reportedly travel to Beirut next week ahead of the deal’s stipulated withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. – Times of Israel
A commercial flight from Iran to Lebanon was delayed upon arrival and searched at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport on Thursday, after Lebanon reportedly received intelligence of an Iranian plan to smuggle cash into the country to fund their proxy terror group Hezbollah. – Times of Israel
Yemen
Sirens were activated across central Israel and in Jerusalem around 4:30 a.m. Friday after a ballistic missile was launched at the country from Yemen, the Israel Defense Forces said. – Times of Israel
A secret collaboration between Beijing and the Houthis has been uncovered, revealing a vast network of supply of sophisticated armaments that threatens the stability of the Red Sea. According to American intelligence sources speaking to i24NEWS, the Iran-backed Yemeni terror group is using Chinese-made weapons in their attacks, in exchange for immunity for ships flying the Chinese flag. – Algemeiner
Ari Heistein and Nathaniel Rabkin write: Like Assad, the Houthis will someday lose power, and Yemenis will remember who helped them in their hour of need and who did not. Keeping up the pressure, military, political, and economic, is critical. Denying the regime legitimacy and opportunities to divert foreign aid is a key component of that effort. Assad’s experience shows that these tyrants do not last forever and that investing in long-term diplomatic relationships with them is a losing bet. – National Interest
Mark Lavie writes: Such an anti-Iran alliance led by Saudi Arabia and backed by the West could help stabilize the region, especially if Israel goes along with it. But first, lessons must be learned: Israel is not at the center of every conflict, not every problem has a solution, and not every military conflict needs to be stopped as quickly as possible. – Jerusalem Post
Yossi Melman writes: “The Americans and Europeans did not fully grasp the depth of Iranian-Houthi involvement and their potential impact on Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” Palti emphasizes. “Within four years, the Houthis had built a highly capable military force with advanced weaponry, heavily supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.” In Israel, the implications have not been fully internalized, even though seven years ago senior IDF intelligence officers and chiefs of staff have mentioned the threat of Houthi missile launches amid warnings from Houthi leaders that Israel is among their targets. – Haaretz
Middle East & North Africa
Saudi Arabia has finalised an arrangement for securing a shariah-compliant revolving credit facility worth $2.5 billion, the National Debt Management Center (NDMC) said on Thursday. – Reuters
Amine Ayoub writes: As we reflect on Carter’s complex legacy, it’s clear that both successes and failures marked his tenure in office. While his achievements in securing peace between Egypt and Israel are undeniable, his handling of Iran remains one of the most significant failures of American foreign policy. The Iranian revolution, and its aftermath, reshaped the Middle East in ways that continue to affect global security. For Israel, the rise of Iran as a nuclear-capable adversary remains a pressing concern—one that Carter’s policies inadvertently helped create. His death reminds us of the need for nuanced reflection on a leader whose decisions left an indelible mark on the Middle East, for better and for worse. – Ynet
Zvi Bar’el writes: Qassem’s remarks reflect a more tempered or at least flexible tone compared to earlier threats from senior Hezbollah officials, who had warned that if Israel continues violating the cease-fire, “on the 61st day, the story will be different.” This underscores Israel’s responsibility in aiding Lebanon to seize the opportunity to “return to the future” by allowing the Lebanese army to deploy along the border and withdrawing from villages it still controls. While Israel retains its right to “self-defense,” a phrase effectively permitting strikes in Lebanon, it must exercise this right from within its borders, avoiding any military presence in Lebanon itself. – Haaretz
Korean Peninsula
South Korean investigators failed to arrest the country’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, thwarted by his armed Secret Service bodyguards in another tense showdown resulting from his short-lived martial-law decree last month. – Wall Street Journal
Thousands of supporters of President Yoon Suk Yeol have been camped out for days on the pavement near his home in central Seoul, vowing to block anyone from trying to detain or arrest him. – New York Times
South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok vowed to continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, saying on Friday his country’s diplomacy remains steadfast despite an unprecedented political crisis at home. – Reuters
South Korea’s transport ministry has extended by a week special inspections of all 101 of the Boeing 737-800 jets run by the country’s airlines, as jet engine maker GE (GE.N) joined a probe into the deadliest aviation disaster on the country’s soil. – Reuters
China
China on Thursday singled out dozens of companies from the United States, including Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, in a series of punitive trade measures that could ratchet up tensions between the two superpowers. – New York Times
Chinese authorities have called for assessments of industry hazards to uncover any “hidden” operational dangers from flight routes to runways, following the deadliest year in global commercial aviation since 2018. – Reuters
China is raising its statutory retirement ages for the first time since establishing them seven decades ago as an ever-rising proportion of seniors pressures the country’s pension systems. – Newsweek
Thomas J. Duesterberg writes: Investment in these areas comes at the expense of others: The debt-shackled economy is giving less priority to investments in education, pensions, healthcare and other social services. Mr. Xi’s obsession with industrial and infrastructure development without regard for human development is a recipe for continued slow growth and weakening confidence in Mr. Xi’s leadership. Mr. Xi is touting the environmental benefits of this new project. But the potential downsides—including seismic risks, water disputes with other countries, humanitarian concerns, and China’s continued overreliance on heavy industry to drive its economy—greatly outweigh the supposed benefits. – Wall Street Journal
South Asia
A court in southeastern Bangladesh on Thursday rejected a plea for bail by a jailed Hindu leader who led large rallies in the Muslim-majority country demanding better security for minority groups. – Associated Press
Hriday Sarma writes: Indian businesses will need to continue engaging with BRICS carefully, ensuring alignment with their global operations while advocating for fair and feasible policies within the bloc. Simultaneously, Indian policymakers must pursue a dual-track strategy, actively participating in BRICS to shape its direction while maintaining strong partnerships with Western markets. This will allow India to manage its economic interests effectively without disrupting existing global frameworks. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Kugelman writes: There will be many questions about South Asia and the world this year: how the region adjusts to a second Trump administration in Washington, how it is affected by conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, and how it navigates unrelenting great-power competition. – Foreign Policy
Asia
Earlier this year, the Cambodian government brought the full diplomatic weight of the state down on a seemingly slight target: a 36-year-old maid working for a middle-class family just outside Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. – Washington Post
Indonesia’s Constitutional Court on Thursday said a law requiring a minimum number of votes for political parties to nominate a presidential candidate was not legally binding, which could allow a wider range of candidates in 2029. – Reuters
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte will no longer sit on the National Security Council after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed an order removing her office from the agency, following a bitter split between the two former allies last year. – Reuters
The Chinese navy and Coast Guard were reportedly conducted a maritime blockade drill in a strategic waterway near a Japanese island, where the United States stationed its forces. – Newsweek
Europe
Chinese electric cars have surged to account for almost 10% of new car sales in Norway in only five years, data from the country’s road federation (OFV) showed on Thursday. – Reuters
The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers, an official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Finland’s national power grid operator (Fingrid) is seeking the formal seizure of the oil tanker suspected of damaging an electric power cable in the Baltic Sea last month. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty
Bulgarians and Romanians celebrated the lifting of European Union land border controls as the two EU members gained full entry into the bloc’s free-travel Schengen Zone. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty
Germany’s Rheinmetall has loaned a Lynx tracked vehicle to the Italian army to test, as Italy prepares to sign a half-billion euro contract ($513 million) for a first batch of the vehicles by mid-2025. – Defense News
The Irish Department of Defence has signed a contract with Airbus UK for the acquisition of four H145M light-utility helicopters, in a deal valued at €91.7 million ($94.6 million). – Breaking Defense
Africa
A glowing ring of metal, more than eight feet in diameter and weighing more than 1,100 pounds, fell from the sky and crash landed in a remote village in Kenya this week, causing no injuries but frightening residents who feared a bomb or worse. – New York Times
Ethiopia’s defence minister travelled to Somalia on Thursday, a senior official in Mogadishu said, the first bilateral visit since relations nosedived a year ago over an Ethiopian plan to build a naval base in a breakaway Somali region. – Reuters
Tullow Oil (TLW.L) said on Thursday the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has ruled that the Branch Profit Remittance Tax (BPRT) does not apply to its operations in the Deepwater Tano and West Cape Three Points fields offshore Ghana. – Reuters
The Americas
When President Jimmy Carter traveled to Panama in June 1978 to finalize hotly disputed treaties turning over the Panama Canal, he declared that “we stand on the threshold of a new era.” – New York Times
Mr. Trump’s claim is false. The Panama Canal is operated by an agency of the Panamanian government, not by Chinese soldiers. In a news conference, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama disputed Mr. Trump’s statements, saying that there were “no Chinese in the canal” beyond those in transiting ships or at the visitor center. – New York Times
Argentina’s government said on Thursday it had filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court against Venezuela for detaining a member of its gendarmerie, a branch of Argentina’s security forces, calling it a “forced disappearance.” – Reuters
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa has decreed that Planning Minister Sariha Moya act as interim vice-president until Vice President Veronica Abad arrives in Turkey to represent the country there, the minister of government said on Thursday, the latest development in a long spat between Noboa and Abad. – Reuters
Over 300,000 migrants crossed the Darien Gap into Panama in 2024, 42% fewer than the record number who made the perilous jungle crossing from South America a year earlier, Panama’s migration authorities told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters
United States
The suspect involved in the car explosion at Las Vegas’ Trump hotel was an Army special operations soldier, military officials said. – Politico
Senator Sanders is coming out squarely on the side of immigration hardliners by saying that the H-1B visa program for high-skilled immigrant workers is nothing more than a ploy for the rich to get richer by suppressing American wages. – New York Sun
When Michael Rosen made the decision to move to Israel with his family from San Diego a decade ago, he knew that frequent travel back to the United States was the only way to make it work. As an attorney, he’d need to to appear in court and meet with clients in the U.S. — onerous, but necessary to pay the bills in Israel. – Jewish Insider
David Firestone writes: In fact, as the departing director, Christopher Wray, has made clear, the bureau needs to increase its intelligence efforts to counter growing threats around the globe. Patel might know that if he had any real background in counterintelligence. As The Times recently reported, he was only a junior prosecutor in the Justice Department’s counterterrorism section, doing routine paperwork, and colleagues said he routinely exaggerated his importance. At the White House, his main job was rooting out members of the so-called deep state who had worked on the Russia investigation against Trump. – New York Times
Steve Cortes writes: If these foreign employees are actually essential, then American firms will willingly pay the high fees and salaries. Once these reforms are joined with strict border enforcement and vigorous deportations, then America will reclaim sovereignty, build diffused prosperity, protect our culture, and pave the way for a new “roaring ’20s” period ahead. Such a roadmap can also maintain the unity of the broadening America First coalition. – New York Sun
Jack Landman Goldsmith writes: The reforms are almost all designed to counteract the community’s perceived excesses against Trump. But there has been very little public discussion about how these reforms will impact the national security mission of the large organizations that are critical to keeping Americans safe. It is the Senate’s job to make sure that these issues are elevated. Starting with their confirmation hearings, and especially once in office, the Trump nominees will find their criticisms and reform ambitions checked by the enormous and enormously difficult responsibility of keeping the nation safe. – Executive Functions
Cybersecurity
Do Kwon, the South Korean cryptocurrency entrepreneur behind two digital currencies that lost an estimated $40 billion in 2022, pleaded not guilty on Thursday to U.S. criminal fraud charges after being extradited from Montenegro this week. – Reuters
The government of Rhode Island said the hackers behind a recent ransomware attack on several of the state’s digital platforms have leaked some of the data that was stolen from the platform last month. – The Record
Cybersecurity researchers have uncovered dozens of attacks that involve malicious updates for Chrome browser extensions, one week after a security firm was compromised in a similar incident. – The Record
Japan’s largest mobile carrier, NTT Docomo, reported that it is working to restore services after a cyberattack temporarily disrupted operations on Thursday. – The Record
The Israeli government has established a new office at the Ministry of Defense tasked with overseeing technology development in the fields of artificial intelligence and autonomy, according to a government announcement. – Defense News
Jason Green-Lowe writes: The House AI Task Force report demonstrates a significant step forward in Congress’s ability to understand and engage with artificial intelligence, but reports alone won’t protect us from the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems. The window for establishing effective AI governance is closing rapidly. Every month without concrete action increases the risk of losing control of this transformative technology. Congress has spent two years studying the challenges posed by AI. Now it’s time to act. – The Hill
Defense
The Biden administration said on Thursday that it was considering a new rule that could restrict or ban Chinese drones in the United States out of national security concerns. – New York Times
An upcoming civilian leadership shakeup across the entire Department of Defense next year could usher Daniel Driscoll in as the 26th Army secretary if Senators give their blessings. – Breaking Defense
In a March briefing with reporters outlining the service’s fiscal 2025 budget, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall issued a warning: Although spending limits imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act are set to expire by FY26, leaders would still have to make “tough choices” about big priorities that year. – Breaking Defense
Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld elicited some snickers back in 2002 with his famous quote about “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns” bedevilling US intelligence about Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction. But those words seem pretty appropriate when trying to prognosticate what 2025 will look like for the US Space Force. – Breaking Defense
The Air Force sent at least 39 retired A-10 Thunderbolt IIs to the boneyard in 2024, a significant increase as the service moves toward removing the aircraft from its inventory even as it recently used the planes in training exercises and in combat overseas. – Military.com
Gene Keselman and Fiona Murray write: Our message to these founders and their investors is to recognize the opportunity as a strategic choice, not a categorical one. At times, military and commercial civilian contexts are mutually reinforcing with activities undertaken in support of one path being beneficial in the other. More typically, the pathways are conflicting or diverging, and pursuing both can be distracting and difficult, especially at the start. Cutting through the noise around dual-use as a category (or trap) and instead reframing it as a strategy, we are educating and expanding the community of entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators who aim to have an impact on “the mission.” – War on the Rocks
Long War
The vehicle-ramming attack by a U.S. Army veteran that killed 14 and injured more than 30 holiday revelers in New Orleans on Wednesday highlights the threat of a resurgent Islamic State that has a history of inspiring disaffected individuals to commit mass murder. – Wall Street Journal
Islamic State militants were already resurgent last year in parts of Syria and Iraq. Then in December, the Assad regime collapsed, furnishing them with fresh supplies of weapons from stocks abandoned by the Syrian army. – Wall Street Journal
Investigators say they haven’t found evidence linking separate deadly attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas, as the FBI continues to probe two incidents that rattled Americans as they rang in 2025. – Bloomberg
Douglas Murray writes: Again — if there was some vast rally of the KKK (hardly the most active group these days) where people praised a white supremacist hours after he had struck and told black Americans (for instance) to go to some other country, there would be zero tolerance for such people. Not only would the police step in, but I suspect incensed members of the public would do so as well. So why are we so craven while people on the streets and campuses of this city actually call for terrorism while the citizens in New Orleans have just suffered it? It is a question that needs answering. And there should be a vast reservoir of horror, rage and disgust aimed at Americans who celebrate terror, even as their fellow citizens are suffering it. – New York Post
Brad Dress writes: While more could be done, a sweeping crackdown on military extremism might not be the best approach, Helmus, from RAND Corporation, argued, comparing it to the overreaction of the U.S. national security sphere following the 9/11 attacks. “The best thing the Pentagon can do is to do assessments, to track numbers,” he said. “That’s the biggest problem so far, is just open transparency on numbers of individuals, of people discharged. What are they discharged for? To what extent are people being discharged for having radical ideologies?” – The Hill