Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump would have sweeping powers over the future governance of the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and the well-being of its people, under a plan drafted by the new international group he leads, laying out how it would operate. – New York Times

Israel has cleared land in southern Gaza for the construction of a camp for Palestinians potentially equipped with surveillance and facial recognition technology at its entrance, a retired Israeli general who advises the military said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A clock in a Tel Aviv square that became a rallying point for Israelis demanding the release of hostages taken during the October 2023 Hamas attack will be turned off on Tuesday, 844 days after it began counting their captivity. – Reuters

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it has no concern over a security incident near the border with Jordan after it identified around 10 suspects who approached Israel in a “suspicious and rapid” manner. – Reuters

Hamas is seeking to incorporate its 10,000 police officers into a new U.S.-backed Palestinian administration for Gaza, sources say, a demand likely to be opposed by Israel as the militant group debates whether to surrender its arms. – Reuters

Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet the families of victims of the Bondi Beach shooting and members of the Australian Jewish community during a visit to the country next month, his office said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Boeing (BA.N), and Israel’s Technion university said on Tuesday they were beginning to develop Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from feedstocks including green hydrogen and carbon dioxide to enable the aviation sector’s long-term growth. – Reuters

The remains of the last Israeli captive recovered from the Gaza Strip were set to be buried on Wednesday in a funeral that will help Israel turn the page after one of the most tramautising periods in its history. – Reuters

For more than two years, Israelis wore yellow ribbons to remember the hostages abducted during the deadliest day in the country’s history. On Tuesday, they finally could remove those ribbons and shut down a haunting clock in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square, marking the end of a painful chapter. – Associated Press

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted Tuesday that some Israeli soldiers lost their lives in the war against Hamas because of what he called an “embargo” that allegedly caused Israel to run out of ammunition. – Times of Israel

A number of people were wounded in settler attacks on the Palestinian enclave of Masafer Yatta in the southern West Bank on Tuesday, with dozens of Israelis reportedly torching homes in several villages. – Times of Israel

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has signed a decree that will likely prevent Hamas and other like-minded factions from participating in PA municipal elections slated for April. – Times of Israel

In the latest sign that a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not going to be signed any time in the foreseeable future, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that he is closely following Riyadh’s recent shift toward Turkey and Qatar. – Times of Israel

Crowds of people waving Israeli flags are waiting outside the Shura military base as the procession for the last Israeli hostage, Master Sgt. Ran Gvili, sets off for his hometown of Meitar. – Times of Israel 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his assertion that Israel will not allow Gaza’s reconstruction before terror groups in the Strip disarm, and said Israel would maintain security control over Gaza and the West Bank – Times of Israel 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tuesday that any attack by Iran would be met with a military response of unprecedented force, as tensions remain high across the region amid growing speculation about potential U.S. action against the Islamic Republic. – Ynet

An internal U.S. document signed by President Donald Trump and obtained by Ynet lays out in detailed terms how Gaza would be governed, rebuilt and demilitarized under a proposed postwar framework, including a plan for dismantling Hamas’ armed capabilities. – Ynet

A photo showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal phone with its camera covered by a sticker was circulated widely Tuesday on social media and Arabic news sites, drawing praise from Iranian-linked hacking groups and prompting debate about digital security and espionage. – Ynet

A senior British Labour lawmaker visiting Israel said he wants to see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu replaced at the next election, while stressing that Britain must preserve close ties with Israel regardless of who leads its government. – Ynet

The Civil Administration evacuated four Jews from the city of Jericho after receiving reports that they were moving through the city, which is under Palestinian Authority control. – Arutz Sheva

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terror organization knowingly launched defective rockets which killed hundreds of Palestinian Arabs during the war in Gaza, Kan Reshet Bet revealed. – Arutz Sheva

Husam Badran, a member of the political bureau of the Hamas terrorist organization, addressed the ongoing ceasefire negotiations on Tuesday, claiming that Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm is an attempt to obstruct the implementation of the agreement’s second phase. – Arutz Sheva

Flavio Bolsonaro wants Brazil back in Israel’s corner and wants the evangelical and conservative forces reshaping Latin America to see Israel as a symbol of shared values and shared enemies. – Jerusalem Post

Discussions over disarming Hamas are expected to begin only after the reopening of the Rafah Crossing, two sources familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

The Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Ministry reported a steep rise in antisemitism and violence against Jews worldwide in 2025 in its interim assessment released on Tuesday, International Holocaust Remembrance Day.- Jerusalem Post

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: This has led to the security establishment’s central recommendation to Israel’s political leadership: do not wait for the new reality to become permanent—take action now on three fronts. First, diplomatically with Washington: Prime Minister Netanyahu must leverage his direct influence on Trump and engage American Jewish organizations such as AIPAC to counterbalance the growing Turkish-Qatari influence in Congress. […] The most urgent and strategic task now facing Israel is to recognize the emerging reality to its north and east, and to prepare for it swiftly and effectively. – Ynet

Russia and Ukraine

The number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded or missing during nearly four years of war is on track to reach two million by this spring, according to a new study, a stunning toll as Russia’s assault on its neighbor grinds on. – New York Times 

The United States has told Ukraine that it must sign on to a peace deal with Russia in order to get U.S. security guarantees, a source familiar with internal discussions told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

China and its President Xi Jinping have the opportunity to bring about an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine by influencing President Vladimir Putin and reducing cooperation, Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russia pounded Ukraine with drones and a missile overnight, killing two people in the Kyiv region, while the southern city of Odesa came under attack for the second night in a row, officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy Tuesday afternoon, a Downing Street spokesperson said in a statement. – Reuters

A Russian drone strike on a passenger train in northeastern Ukraine killed five people, prosecutors said, an attack denounced as terrorism by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Prosecutors said fragments of five bodies had been found at the scene of the strike on the train by a village in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. – Reuters

Ukrainian state oil and gas firm Naftogaz said on Tuesday that a Russian strike had targeted one of its facilities in a western region, causing a fire and halting operations. Russia has sharply intensified its bombardments of Ukraine’s energy system since it invaded its neighbour in 2022. – Reuters

An Associated Press investigation found that Bangladeshi workers were lured to Russia under the false promise of civilian work, only to be thrust into the chaos of combat in Ukraine. Many were threatened with violence, imprisonment or death. – Associated Press

A heavy Russian drone bombardment of Ukraine’s southern city of Odesa killed at least three people and wounded 23, including two children and a pregnant woman, officials said Tuesday, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for speedier U.S. efforts to end Russia’s almost 4-year-old invasion of his country. – Associated Press

For average wage earners in Russia, it’s a big payday. For criminals seeking to escape the harsh conditions and abuse in prison, it’s a chance at freedom. For immigrants hoping for a better life, it’s a simplified path to citizenship. All they have to do is sign a contract to fight in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Alexander Kolyandr writes: The crushing of protests in Iran may seem far removed from Russia’s economic reality, but the Kremlin was undoubtedly watching events closely. Moscow was likely left even more convinced of the wisdom of its strategy — particularly in curbing inflation and cleaning up the banking sector. It also provides a new argument for reducing government spending and working to ease at least some Western sanctions. Beyond economics, it could also promote a further tightening of the screws both online and in the real world. – Center for European Policy Analysis

David Axe writes: Absent some profound institutional reforms, Westerners are merely observing the wider war in Ukraine very closely — and trying to copy, as fast as possible, the tactical and tech developments that spring from the front line. But a copy necessarily lags behind the original. It’s worrying that the US Army is only now buying its first heavy bomber drones, a key class of unmanned systems that the Ukrainians developed in haste in the spring of 2022. The Americans are laboring within a three- or four-year tech development cycle in response to a war where the tactics and techs evolve 12 times faster. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe write: U.S. aid can come through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List, which includes packages of equipment and munitions provided by the United States, purchased by European countries, and coordinated by NATO. The United States and Europe could also provide additional training for Ukrainian corps-level commanders and staff. Despite Russian challenges, the great irony is that the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield the economic or military cudgels. Without greater pain, Putin will drag the talks out and keep fighting—even if it means millions of Russian and Ukrainian casualties. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia on Tuesday ruled out the use of its airspace and territory for a potential U.S. attack on Iran, complicating the Trump administration’s options in response to Tehran’s violent crackdown against Iranian protesters. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump warned Tuesday that his administration would no longer support Iraq if Nouri al-Maliki is named the country’s next prime minister. – Wall Street Journal

The World Bank said on Tuesday it had approved $200 million in new financing to assist Lebanon in meeting the basic needs of the poor and vulnerable as the country tries to recover from its 2019 economic collapse. – Reuters

Three French tourists drowned in Oman after the boat they were in capsized in waters off the sultanate’s capital city of Muscat, police said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Middle East businesses are watching tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with increasing nervousness, concerned it could impact commerce at a time when both nations are emerging as powerhouses of regional trade and finance. – Bloomberg

Libya’s central bank is suing Zimbabwe’s finance minister and national oil company for more than $100 million, the latest development in a spiraling debt crisis that’s bedeviled the southern African nation for a quarter of a century. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: Middle East analysts may pour forth rivalries to explain Saudi actions. They may also spread calumnies about the UAE supporting an “Axis of Secession” because of its support for Somaliland and southern Yemen. This misses the point. The problem is not that the rivalry exists, but that Saudi Arabia supports the wrong side. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had a rivalry, but Washington was right, and Moscow was wrong. There is no moral equivalence today between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. If Muhammad bin Salman does not grow up, Rubio and Congress should consider sanctions or even a terrorist designation. – American Enterprise Institute

Firas Maksad writes: Saudi Arabia is the key swing state of the Middle East. Saudi policy, as described to me by one of its senior officials, is pragmatic rather than ideological—guided by “maximum flexibility at a time of maximum uncertainty.” If Trump can succeed in delivering Saudi-Israeli normalization before leaving office, he can still steer Riyadh and the region off its current rivalrous path. He can fold the Abrahamic and the Islamic coalitions under America’s large Middle Eastern tent and stabilize the region’s post-Iran order under U.S. primacy for decades to come. – Foreign Policy

Ernest Herzog writes: Argentina’s decision, the actions of US states, and the long-standing stance of Arab governments are not isolated episodes. They are symptoms of a dawning realization that the Muslim Brotherhood’s greatest advantage has never been popular support, but the West’s reluctance to believe that ideology, when patient enough, can be as dangerous as violence. The West is finally waking up to this uncomfortable reality. Whether Europe will open its eyes fully – or hit the snooze button once again – is the only question that remains. – Jerusalem Post

China

Hundreds of vendors at Shanghai’s largest clothing market were very busy. But they weren’t making sales. They were processing returns. At Qipu Road Wholesale Clothing Market, wholesalers send shipments of sweaters, dresses and pants to retail stores all over the country. Stores pay only for what they sell, and send back what they don’t. – Wall Street Journal

Decades of spending increases have helped China build one of the world’s most substantial militaries, stirring fears that it could seize Taiwan or provoke a clash over territorial disputes with neighbors such as Japan or the Philippines. – Wall Street Journal

When U.S. President Donald Trump took office a year ago with an “America First” agenda, many saw trouble for China’s sluggish economy, but Beijing has thawed frosty relationships with other trade partners to post a record trade surplus. – Reuters

China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun told his Russian counterpart on Tuesday that Beijing was willing to enhance strategic coordination with Moscow and jointly improve their capacity to respond to risks and challenges, state media reported. – Reuters

China is ready to enhance mutual trust with Britain and deepen practical cooperation with the Group of Seven nation as Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits the world’s second-largest economy this week, according to the Chinese foreign ministry on Tuesday. – Reuters

China’s role as a leading financier to developing nations has ‌shifted over the past decade, with new loans to poorer countries falling sharply while debt repayments continue to rise, according to analysis released by ONE Data. – Reuters

Value Partners Group Ltd. honorary chairman Cheah Cheng Hye made a rare public call for democratic reforms in Hong Kong at an event attended by mainland Chinese and local officials. – Bloomberg

Xi Jinping’s purge of top Chinese generals has cost Western governments a key contact and deepened fears that the People’s Liberation Army is becoming even more walled-off from contact. – Bloomberg

Audrye Wong writes: But the lure of its market and capital could be enough—and in some cases already has been enough—to buy silence on issues that China cares about, including territorial disputes or human rights violations in Xinjiang. It may even be enough to dampen the world’s response to an invasion of Taiwan. After all, China’s willingness to use both its carrots and its sticks incentivizes other countries to avoid confrontation and leave Beijing to pursue its interests with relative impunity—while the United States increasingly struggles to rally the world to push back. – Foreign Affairs

Anushka Saxena writes: As Beijing approaches the “Two Sessions” in March, one will likely see new appointments, and the house of cards will be rebuilt out of a deck of Xi’s self-selected, self-promoted loyalists. But new names cannot mask the reality that the PLA’s goal to become a world-class military in the next few years will face short-term hindrances. Instead, Xi now has a high command consumed by paranoia, where war planning takes a backseat to political survival. Flybys around Taiwan, or skirmishes with the Philippines in the South China Sea, will continue. But while Xi caged the tigers, he must hope that he has not declawed the dragon in the process. – The National Interest

Asia

Life in Myanmar was upended five years ago, when the military seized power in a coup. Now the junta is trying to project a veneer of legitimacy and normalcy, even as it is fighting a grinding civil war with pro-democracy rebels and other groups. – New York Times

A plan to build a synthetic diamond plant in the United States is a prime prospect in Japan’s $550-billion investment package, as the allies push to expand production of a material vital to chip and high-precision manufacturing, sources said. – Reuters

The Philippines’ maritime council called for “restraint” on Wednesday amid heated public exchanges between its officials and the Chinese embassy in Manila, adding it “does not seek provocation or escalation”. – Reuters

Senior Taiwanese and U.S. officials discussed cooperation in artificial intelligence, tech and drones at a high-level forum begun during the first Trump administration, with the U.S. State Department praising Taipei as a “vital partner.” – Reuters

Thai lawmaker Phumin Leethiraprasert has switched party allegiances in his re-election campaign for a February 8 poll, aiming to show voters he can make tough decisions to help border communities scarred by clashes with neighbouring Cambodia. – Reuters

Kazakhstan’s biggest oilfield, Tengiz, is likely to have restored less than half of its normal production by February 7 as it slowly recovers from a fire and power outage, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will flag Australia’s desire for deeper security and energy ties when he addresses East Timor’s parliament on Wednesday, in his first visit to the northern neighbour as leader. – Reuters

Japan’s last pair of pandas have returned to China, leaving Japan without the lovable bears for the first time in half a century. The bears are heading back as diplomatic relations between the two countries are at their lowest point in years over the new Japanese Prime Minister’s stance on Taiwan, an island Beijing claims as its own, making it unlikely that there will be replacement bears. – Associated Press

Philippine officials on Tuesday grounded the entire fleet of passenger ships belonging to a company that owned a ferry that sank in the south and left at least 18 people dead, with more than 300 others rescued. – Associated Press

A top Pentagon official arrived in Japan for talks on countering China’s military rise as the US puts pressure on its allies in Asia to increase defense spending and reduce the burden on the American military. – Bloomberg

Russian surveillance ship Kareliya (535) seemingly concluded a two-week surveillance mission around Japan’s southwest region Monday, its time in the area overlapping with a Chinese surveillance ship, officials from the island country said. – US Naval Institute

Taisuke Kassai writes: Such dynamics have direct implications for U.S. industrial policy. Federal efforts to reshore production and strengthen domestic supply chains depend not only on attracting capital, but on maintaining a stable operating environment and a reliable pipeline of skilled labor. With complementary investments in policy predictability and workforce development, investment from allies such as Japan can contribute to durable resilience and long-term competitiveness gains in the United States. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

Rwanda said late on Tuesday that it had filed an arbitration case against Britain over a cancelled asylum deal, which British Prime Minister Keir Starmer scrapped in 2024. Under the deal, agreed between the two countries before Starmer took office, Rwanda would have been paid to take in migrants who had illegally arrived in Britain. – Reuters

The executive board of the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday approved the sixth and final review of Zambia’s extended credit facility, it said in a statement, paving the way for a disbursement of $190 million. – Reuters

Sudan’s army says it has broken a long siege of the southern city of al-Dalanj by RSF paramilitary forces, during which survivors said many people were killed in drone and artillery strikes as hunger spread and medicines became scarce. – Reuters

South Sudan’s government urged opposition forces to halt fighting on Tuesday, saying a rebel advance and ongoing clashes that have already caused mass displacement in Jonglei state threatened to reignite civil war. – Reuters

The Nigerian army said on Tuesday it had rescued 11 kidnapping victims during a late-night operation along the Kaduna–Abuja highway, thwarting an attempt by armed militants to move the captives through a forested area under the cover of darkness. – Reuters

Suspected Boko Haram militants killed seven Nigerian soldiers and captured 13 others including their commanding officer on Monday in northeastern Borno state, two security sources said. – Reuters

Cameron Hudson and Liam Karr write: The Red Sea region has already become one of the most hotly contested areas on Earth in recent months and years. If Ethiopia emerges as a new front in Sudan’s civil war, this would exacerbate the world’s largest humanitarian and refugee crisis. It would also threaten international commerce and would create opportunities for a host of malign actors, ranging from Russia and Iran to al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Houthis. The Trump administration should do everything in its power to prevent this. – Foreign Policy

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke to President Trump and told him he stands by his remarks last week issuing a call-to-arms among smaller powers against economic coercion. – Wall Street Journal

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, pressed on Tuesday whether Mexico had halted oil shipments to Cuba amid pressure from Washington, said shipment decisions were sovereign in nature and not based on U.S. pressure. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “Cuba will be failing pretty soon,” adding that Venezuela, once the island’s top supplier, has not recently sent oil or money to Cuba. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

The avatar known as Diella, billed as the world’s first government minister to be generated by artificial intelligence, was supposed to help cut Albania’s endemic corruption. But there’s a glitch. The leaders of the agency that built it stand accused of bid-rigging public contracts. – New York Times

India’s top tourist state of Goa is considering a social media ban for children similar to one implemented in Australia, as concerns grow over mental health risks in a nation with more than a billion internet users. – Reuters

The British government said on Tuesday it had recruited a team of artificial intelligence specialists to build AI tools to improve transport, public safety and defence, using funding from Meta (META.O). – Reuters

Censorship claims, technical problems and a report of a surge in app deletions are just some of the challenges TikTok is facing as it adjusts to a new ownership structure in the United States that was finalized last week. – Associated Press

Google Threat Intelligence Group warned that a diverse and growing collection of attackers, including nation-state groups and financially motivated cybercriminals, are exploiting a path-traversal vulnerability affecting WinRAR that was disclosed and patched six months ago. – Cyberscoop

Jake Sullivan and Tal Feldman write: Geopolitics in the age of AI will not be simple. But without a disciplined way of thinking, strategy will collapse under the weight of hidden assumptions and agendas. By mapping possible worlds and the choices they demand, this framework offers a way to see through the fog. The task for policymakers now is clear: treat AI not as a single story but as a shifting landscape. If American leaders learn to think this way, they will define whatever AI age emerges. If not, others will do it for them. – Foreign Affairs