Fdd's overnight brief

January 28, 2025

In The News

Israel

Tens of thousands of Palestinians began returning to a ravaged northern Gaza and what was left of their homes and families, after Hamas agreed to release more hostages than expected this week to keep its cease-fire with Israel in place. – Wall Street Journal

Some of the Israeli women released by Hamas over the past two weeks still had shrapnel in their bodies from untreated wounds they suffered in the attack on Oct. 7, 2023, according to an Israeli medical official, as the first details emerged on the condition of hostages held for 15 months. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli forces fired toward residents of southern Lebanon for a second consecutive day on Monday as people pressed on with attempts to return to their homes along the border, a day after at least two dozen people were killed and scores injured in Israeli attacks, Lebanese officials said. – New York Times

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has handed over to mediators a list showing that 25 Israeli hostages are still alive, out of 33 scheduled for release, an official of the group told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Lebanese Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Monday that the group would not accept any justifications to extend the period for Israeli troops’ withdrawal from southern Lebanon. – Reuters

A delegation from Palestinian group Hamas arrived in Cairo on Monday to discuss the implementation of ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza, the group said in a statement. – Reuters

The Palestinian population must not be expelled from Gaza, the German foreign ministry said on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Jordan and Egypt should take in Palestinians. – Reuters

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has withdrawn a threat to quit the government if Israel does not return to fighting in Gaza, several Israeli news sites reported on Monday. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington as early as next week, according to two U.S. officials familiar with preliminary planning for the trip. – Associated Press

Eight of the hostages due for release in the first phase of a truce deal between Israel and Hamas are dead, Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said Monday. – Agence France Presse

The Defense Ministry on Monday announced an $80 million purchase of more advanced self-protection systems for its fourth-generation F-16 fighter aircraft just as top Israeli and IDF officials have increased discussion of striking Iran’s nuclear program. – Jerusalem Post

Security contractors have started inspecting vehicles in Gaza to prevent heavy weaponry from being moved to the north of the enclave, where tens of thousands of Palestinians were returning to on Monday. – Times of Israel

President Isaac Herzog used a speech at the United Nations marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day to slam the UN and international courts for their “hypocrisy” and attacks on the State of Israel. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces carried out a drone strike on Monday in the West Bank city Tulkarem, killing two Palestinians that Hamas identified as members of its armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam brigades. – Times of Israel

Cookie Schweber-Issan writes: It is only through the choice of life that we get to fulfill our destiny, both for ourselves and for everyone around us. This is best exhibited when we remember who we are as opposed to warring with one another over meaningless nonsense, which only ends up dividing us into bickering factions that destroy the unity under which we were meant to live. – Jerusalem Post

Ohad Tal writes: After 33 of our hostages are brought home in the first phase of the deal, Israel must return to fighting in Gaza—this time stronger, smarter and more efficiently than before. We must stop transferring humanitarian aid directly to Hamas, take responsibility over Gaza (at least temporarily, until there is a viable political alternative) and destroy Hamas once and for all. Together, Israel and the United States must seize this opportunity—for the safety and security of our future, and for the peace and prosperity of the entire world. – Arutz Sheva

Iran

Iran has purchased Russian-made Sukhoi-35 fighter jets, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander said on Monday, amid Western concerns about Tehran and Moscow’s growing military cooperation. – Reuters

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and Israel Police have arrested two Israeli citizens suspected of conducting missions for Iranian operatives. One of the suspects transferred classified material to a handler obtained during his military service in the Air Defense Corps. – Jerusalem Post

Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-MD), a freshman congressman joining the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Middle East subcommittee, said the U.S. needs to take all steps necessary to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. – Jewish Insider

Mordechai Kedar writes: It is clear that the Islamic Republic is trying to restore its regional power through Armenia and the Southern Caucasus. The IRGC has worked for years, diligently and patiently, to achieve the level of regional influence it had before October 7. Iran’s goal is dominance over the Islamic world. Iranians have the patience of elephants, and they plan for decades. Therefore, we must monitor every one of their activities closely to try to understand Iran’s next move. Even if it operates in less scrutinized and less Arab regions, Iranian influence is an anti-Western influence. – Jerusalem Post

Nicole Grajewski and Or Rabinowitz write: Washington must remain cognizant of potential Russian and Iranian efforts to reestablish influence in Syria, where the Russian-Iranian partnership first bore fruit. A nuclear Iran, with Russia’s backing, would further destabilize the moderate Sunni regimes in the region, embolden hard-liners, and weaken the emerging Sunni-Israeli axis, in addition to catapulting the area into a regional nuclear arms race. […] It may motivate like-minded states around the world to unite behind their discontent with the United States’ global leadership and join their ranks. – Foreign Affairs

Russia & Ukraine

They have been circling each other carefully for seven days now — sending out invitations to talk, mixing a few jabs with ego-stroking, suggesting that the only way to end the Ukraine war is for the two of them to meet, presumably without the Ukrainians. – New York Times

A standoff between Ukraine’s defense minister and the official in charge of procuring weapons threatened to escalate on Monday, stirring dissent in the government at a critical time as it seeks to persuade President Trump to maintain American support in its war with Russia. – New York Times

An overnight Russian air attack injured four people, set a private business on fire and damaged several houses in Kharkiv, a city that has been under intermittent Russian fire since the start of the war, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that the rigours of nearly three years of war did not allow for changes in mobilisation rules because if soldiers left for home en masse, Russian President Vladimir Putin “will kill us all”. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy replaced the commander of the eastern front, the most heated battlefield of the Ukraine war, after Russian forces captured another strategic town there. – Reuters

Russian refineries are processing more crude oil in the hope of boosting fuel exports after new U.S. sanctions on Russian tankers and traders made exports of unprocessed crude more difficult, two industry sources said and data showed. – Reuters

A new school textbook that likens Russia’s war in Ukraine to the Soviet struggle against the Nazis and says Russia was “forced” to send troops into Ukraine was presented in Moscow on Monday. – Reuters

Syria

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov is set to meet Syria’s new rulers this week in Damascus, two Syrian sources said on Tuesday, in the first visit by Russian officials since Moscow’s ally President Bashar al-Assad was toppled. – Reuters

They have lived for years in Zaatari, the world’s biggest refugee camp for Syrians, but many are unsure they want to return home from Jordan even after the ouster of former president Bashar Assad. – Agence France Presse

Wladimir van Wilgenburg writes: Such efforts may also be of interest to the new U.S. administration. U.S. president Donald Trump, with his focus on deal making and friendly relationship with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could play a key role in supporting a unified Kurdish position in Syria and new peace talks in Turkey—and in pressuring actors, such as the PKK and the Turkish government, to secure a lasting peace in Syria and Turkey. This could also pave the way for a U.S. withdrawal from Syria, provided there is a guarantee for Kurdish rights in a post-Assad Syria. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held talks on Monday with his Iraqi and Libyan counterparts, Hayan Abdel-Ghani and Khalifa Abdulsadek, in Riyadh on efforts to support the stability of global energy markets, the Saudi state news agency (SPA) reported. – Reuters

Turkey’s government is hoping to reach a $6 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia that could see the kingdom buy warships, tanks and missiles, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, says that Saudi Arabia will not normalize its relations with Israel without a solution for the Palestinian Arabs, which involves the establishment of a Palestinian state. – Arutz Sheva

Middle East & North Africa

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a call with Jordan’s King Abdullah on Monday, the State Department said, with the call coming two days after a suggestion by President Donald Trump that Jordan and Egypt should take more Palestinians from Gaza. – Reuters

The Trump administration has provided assurances to multiple countries in the Middle East that the freeze placed on aid assistance from the United States will be lifted in the coming months, two US officials told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Turkish authorities have arrested 19 people as part of an investigation into a fire at a ski resort hotel that killed 78 people, Anadolu state news agency reported Monday. – Agence France Presse

Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi write: Moreover, given the Houthis’ history of using ceasefires to regroup and rearm, they may intend to exploit the current pause in hostilities to prepare for future offensives. […] Its unmanned explosive-laden boats—often guided by GPS or remotely controlled—have been especially challenging to detect and intercept, adding another layer of complexity to maritime security operations in the area. Such weapons also pose risks to critical infrastructure in U.S. regional partner states. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

South Korean air accident investigators are narrowing in on two factors — birds that hit both engines and a concrete structure at the end of the airport runway — as critical issues in the devastating Jeju Air crash last month that killed all but two of the 181 people on board. – Washington Post

Outside a detention centre on the outskirts of Seoul, protesters gather daily in prayer circles. “Let a miracle happen for President Yoon”, declares one person. “Lord, let the enemies see President Yoon shine so bright and be defeated”, says another. – The Guardian

North Korean troops have pulled back from at least one section of the frontline in the Kursk region of Russia, according to members of Ukraine’s military. – Newsweek

A notorious North Korean military manufacturer selling its wares internationally remains active and is expanding its catalog despite international sanctions, a Defense News investigation shows. – Defense News

China

China said on Monday it is willing to repatriate confirmed Chinese nationals from the United States, as U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs and sanctions on some countries if they do not cooperate on accepting deportees. – Reuters

Trade for March-loading Russian oil in top buyer Asia has stalled as a wide price gap between buyers and sellers emerged in China after costs for chartering tankers unaffected by U.S. sanctions jumped, according to traders and shipping data. – Reuters

A top Chinese official on Monday denied suggestions from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency that the Covid-19 pandemic was triggered by the virus leaking from a lab. – Politico

South Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump stressed the importance of India buying more American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship in a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, the White House said. – Reuters

China and India agreed to facilitate the exchange of journalists between the two countries, China’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Taliban ambassador on Monday warned the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio against making threats after saying he would place bounties on Afghanistan’s rulers for their continued detention of U.S. nationals. – Associated Press

Trains were canceled across Bangladesh on Tuesday as railway staff went on strike for higher pensions and other benefits, affecting tens of thousands of passengers and freight transport. – Associated Press

Asia

New Zealand relaxed its visa requirements for remote workers on Monday, as the country looked to spur economic growth by courting “digital nomads,” the skilled professionals who can work from anywhere in the world that has an internet connection. – New York Times

Nearly three decades after the fall of Indonesia’s authoritarian leader, General Suharto, the nation’s new president is causing unease among liberals and others by increasingly turning to the once-all-powerful military to carry out his governing vision. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval fell to its lowest level since the 2022 election, while more voters for the first time expected the conservative opposition coalition to win the next election due by May, a widely watched poll showed. – Reuters

Thailand denies abusing a jailed gambling tycoon fighting extradition to China over charges he ran illegal online gambling operations in Southeast Asia, the country’s justice minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Tonga’s Crown Prince Tupouto’a ‘Ulukalala has been named minister for defence and foreign affairs, taking on the key government roles in the Pacific Islands nation a week after prime minister ‘Aisake Eke was appointed by King Tupou VI. – Reuters

New Zealand is reconsidering all development funding to the aid-dependent island nation of Kiribati, following a diplomatic snub from the island nation’s leader, government officials said. – Associated Press

Europe

Holocaust survivors and world leaders gathered at Auschwitz on Monday to mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi death camp — probably the last major anniversary that some of the survivors could attend. – Washington Post

The man who is favored to be Germany’s next chancellor has opened the door to working with the Alternative for Germany to pass tough new immigration restrictions, potentially breaking a longstanding effort to shun a party whose flirtation with Nazi language has made it anathema to the political mainstream. – New York Times

Britain on Monday imposed sanctions targeting Belarusian officials and defence companies after joining Western governments in condemning what they called “sham” presidential elections in the country. – Reuters

The European Union is “not negotiating” on Greenland, EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday, amid claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that the United States needs to control Greenland for security purposes. – Reuters

Belarusian leader and Russian ally Alexander Lukashenko extended his 31-year rule on Monday after electoral officials declared him the winner of a presidential election Western governments rejected as a sham. – Reuters

Denmark said on Monday it would spend 14.6 billion Danish crowns ($2.05 billion) boosting its military presence in the Arctic, following renewed, interest by U.S. President Donald Trump in controlling Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. – Reuters

Britain and the European Union go to court for the first time on Tuesday to resolve a dispute over post-Brexit fishing rights, a case that could complicate Britain’s planned “reset” of relations with the bloc. – Reuters

Belarus has “unilaterally” freed an American woman from detention, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Sunday, as the Kremlin-allied country held an orchestrated election poised to give strongman President Alexander Lukashenko yet another term on top of his three decades in power. – Associated Press

Serbia’s striking university students on Monday launched a 24-hour blockade of a key traffic intersection in the capital, Belgrade, stepping up pressure on the populist authorities over a deadly canopy collapse in November that killed 15 people. – Associated Press

Jewish groups on Monday accused Ireland’s President Michael Higgins of politicizing the Israel-Hamas war during a Holocaust remembrance speech, with the country’s chief rabbi calling his remarks “deeply disheartening.” – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Incidents of global antisemitism have spiked to unprecedented post-World War II levels, and public figures like Elon Musk are quoted telling supporters of the rising far-Right German political party Alternative for Germany that “there is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that.” […] As the survivors die, and along with them their first-hand accounts of the horrors perpetrated against the Jews, the easier it will be for people like Higgins to diminish their magnitude and use them for cheap political gain. – Jerusalem Post

Africa

After a week of whirlwind gains for the Sudanese army and allies in the capital Khartoum, leaders hailed a turning point in the civil war, speaking to reporters from inside the army’s main headquarters that had been besieged since April 2023. – Reuters

At least 22 soldiers have been killed and several wounded in Nigeria’s northeast after insurgents deployed improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers to ward off attacks by the military, the army spokesperson Edward Buba said. – Reuters

Fighting across the largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and “is still very much ongoing … it’s not over yet,” senior U.N. official in Congo, Bruno Lemarquis, said on Monday after Rwandan-backed M23 rebels claimed to have control of Goma. – Reuters

South Sudan has lifted a nationwide curfew imposed more than 10 days ago after a night of deadly rioting in the capital over the alleged killing of South Sudanese people by the army and allied groups in neighbouring Sudan, its spokesperson said on Monday. – Reuters

Thirty-seven suspected terrorists, including suspected members of Islamic State, have been arrested across east Africa over the last two months, the global police body Interpol said on Monday. – Reuters

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced Monday that his office will be seeking arrest warrants for those accused of atrocities in Sudan’s West Darfur region, which has seen reported ethnic cleansing by paramilitary forces that have been fighting government forces for 19 months. – Associated Press

The Americas

Almost a decade ago, the most powerful rebel group Latin America had ever seen agreed to lay down its weapons and end its fight to overthrow the Colombian state. The accord with Colombia’s government earned a Nobel Peace Prize for then-President Juan Manuel Santos. – Wall Street Journal

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said on Monday she would soon be talking to counterparts in allied nations in a bid to fend off tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to impose. – Reuters

Canada said on Monday it would impose sanctions on 10 individuals and 12 entities in Belarus, citing what it called “gross and systematic human rights violations” by Minsk. – Reuters

Mexico has received non-Mexican migrants from the United States in the past week, and Central American nations could also reach similar agreements with the U.S. to accept deportees from other countries, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday. – Reuters

Argentina’s Salta province has begun a bidding process to build a roughly two-block fence near the Bolivian border as part of President Javier Milei’s efforts to crack down on drug trafficking and contraband. – Bloomberg

Venezuela said it will hold regional and parliamentary elections in April, potentially splitting the opposition over whether to boycott the vote. – Bloomberg

Google said on Monday that it will change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to “Gulf of America” in Google Maps once it is updated in the U.S. Geographic Names System. – The Hill

Cruz Bonlarron Martínez writes: Trump and Rubio need to accept that Latin America will not put up with a new Monroe Doctrine. They must treat the region’s countries as equals, because they are sovereign nations, not banana republics. If they don’t accept those facts, Latin America will move further towards China’s embrace, and the Trump administration will lose the ability to ensure that the region’s countries cooperate with their immigration plans. If Rubio does not change course, he will go down in history not only as the first secretary of state of Latin American descent but as the one who pushed Latin America away from the U.S. – The Hill

United States

A Trump administration order pausing almost all foreign aid has left counterterrorism training in Somalia, HIV treatment in Uganda, narcotics interdiction in Colombia, prosthetics for refugees from Myanmar, and many more U.S.-funded overseas assistance programs in sudden limbo. – Wall Street Journal

But among the biggest obstacles for Trump’s mass deportation campaign are the countries that refuse to take back undocumented migrants. These countries are labeled “recalcitrant countries” by ICE. – Washington Post

U.S. President Donald Trump forged ahead with military deportation flights on Monday, sending another planeload of migrants to Guatemala a day after coming to the brink of a trade war with Colombia when it refused to let C-17 aircraft land. – Reuters

The head of the Federal Maritime Commission will tell a U.S. Senate committee that the United States has options to address the growing presence of China and Chinese firms in Panama. – Reuters

A California woman was sentenced Monday to more than 3 years in prison in a long-running case over a business that helped pregnant Chinese women travel to the United States to deliver babies who automatically became American citizens. – Associated Press

U.S. public health officials have been told to stop working with the World Health Organization, effective immediately. – Associated Press

Eli Lake writes: For now, Republicans on the Hill who fret about this group’s potential influence are trying to warn Hegseth directly. “Lots of people are reaching out to Hegseth and asking about Caldwell and these picks,” a Senate Republican aide told The Free Press. “Hegseth keeps saying, don’t worry, I’m in charge, you know where I stand.” We will find out soon enough. – The Free Press

Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman write: Ultimately, the polling indicates that, far from being a partisan issue, Americans are largely united in supporting Israel’s right to self-defense and worrying over the impact of surging antisemitism. Moreover, the data suggest that the media narrative of stark partisan differences toward Israel, which has taken root since Oct. 7, 2023, is inaccurate. Support for Israel does not divide Americans along party lines — rather, it is an area of bipartisan agreement in an age when such widely supported issues are increasingly rare. – The Hill 

Louis René Beres writes: In sum, for both the United States and Israel, legal assessments of targeted killing ought never be undertaken apart from correlative operational expectations. This means that before any “extraordinary remedies” should be applied, these measures would be not only legally correct, but tactically cost-effective. – Algemeiner

Cybersecurity

A federal court gave preliminary approval to a $45 million settlement in a consolidated class-action lawsuit brought against MGM Resorts International for data breaches in 2019 and 2023. – Wall Street Journal

Australian stocks that are exposed to the artificial intelligence wave fell sharply on Tuesday as investors feared the emergence of a low-cost AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek would threaten the dominance of current market leaders. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that Microsoft (MSFT.O), is in talks to acquire TikTok and that he would like to see a bidding war over the app. – Reuters

Chinese startup DeepSeek said on Monday it is temporarily limiting registrations due to a large-scale malicious attack on its services. – Reuters

Ukraine has denied allegations of involvement in a cyberattack on Slovakia’s national insurance company, following accusations by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. – The Record

Editorial: DeepSeek should also cause Republicans in Washington to rethink their antitrust obsessions with big tech. Bureaucrats aren’t capable of overseeing thousands of AI models, and more regulation would slow innovation and make it harder for U.S. companies to compete with China. As DeepSeek shows, it’s possible for a David to compete with the Goliaths. Let a thousand American AI flowers bloom. – Wall Street Journal

Heidy Khlaaf and Sarah Myers West write: In the quest for supremacy in a purported technological arms race, it would be unwise to overlook the risks that A.I.’s current reliance on sensitive data poses to national security or to ignore its core technical vulnerabilities. If our leaders barrel ahead with their plans to implement A.I. across our critical infrastructures, they risk undermining our national security. One day, we’ll deeply regret it. – New York Times

Edan Ring and Nitsan Yasur write: Social media dominance in the public discourse, the ongoing offensive on established media outlets, and the severe lack of political and security stability are key factors that are making Israeli democracy much more vulnerable and sensitive to the threats posed by false information and malicious foreign influence. […] For those concerned about the future of democracy in Israel, the battle for facts and truth on social media has never been more important – though now it has become much more complex. – Jerusalem Post

Defense

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he wants Congress to pass a bill that includes an increase in funding to secure the country’s borders. – Reuters

President Donald Trump is preparing an executive order for a “next-generation” defense shield to protect the US against ballistic missiles and other long-range attacks, taking on a goal that past administrations — including his own — struggled to reach. – Bloomberg

Kicking off his first Monday in the office as the new secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth briefly spotlighted his team’s earliest leadership priorities — including executing on President Trump’s new vision to institute a powerful U.S. missile defense system. – DefenseScoop

Ryan Evans writes: The Defense Department is a sprawling organization populated with professionals who are largely mission-driven and service-oriented, but too many of those buying the future don’t have a map to get America there. The policies recommended here would be a modest but critical start on finding the way.  I hope to see senators asking nominated defense officials about how they plan to lead the way. – War on the Rocks