Fdd's overnight brief

Turkey

Bilateral talks between Turkey and Greece to resolve long-standing maritime disputes, which resumed on Monday after a five-year hiatus, were held in a “very positive” atmosphere, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Commercial Bank of Qatar is committed to its business in Turkey for “the long haul” as it looks to build its operations there, according to the top executive at the lender. – Bloomberg

Cinzia Bianco and André Rodrigues Rocha write: It is now clear that both Greece and the UAE view their partnership as a bulwark against Turkish expansionism in the Mediterranean, be it under the “neo-Ottoman” or Mavi Vatan banner. For Abu Dhabi, Greece’s standing as a member of the EU could also be vital to revitalizing its ongoing efforts to get closer to Brussels. The major implication for the EU would be an even more blurred geopolitical border between Europe and the Middle East. – Middle East Institute

Arabian Peninsula

State-owned companies of Saudi Arabia have sued the country’s former spymaster in a Canadian court, alleging he embezzled billions of dollars, in a case that throws a spotlight on a bitter royal feud. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration has imposed a temporary freeze on U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and is scrutinizing purchases by the United Arab Emirates as it reviews billions of dollars in weapons transactions approved by former President Donald Trump, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

Ten years after joining an uprising in Yemen against autocratic rule and an economy in shambles, the same activists find themselves on opposite sides of a war that has pushed the country to the brink of famine with dim prospects for peace. – Reuters

The UAE ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba, said on Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates anticipated a review of current policies by the new U.S. administration, welcoming joint efforts to de-escalate tensions and for renewed regional dialogue, according to a statement posted on the Embassy Twitter account. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday said the State Department was taking a “very urgent and very close look” at the Trump administration designation of Yemen’s Houthi movement as a foreign terrorist organization and wants to make sure aid groups can deliver assistance to the country. – Reuters

Simon Henderson writes: The Wall Street Journal report said that U.S. forces will be operating from air bases in Taif and Tabuk, in the West of the kingdom, as well as the current Prince Sultan base south of Riyadh.  The Red Sea port of Yanbu would be used for transport ships, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.  Much of this is reminiscent of the footprint the U.S. had in the late 1990s when Saddam Hussein in Iraq needed to be deterred. Whether the Biden administration knew it was inheriting this strategy is yet to be revealed. – The Hill

China

Treating China as a “strategic rival” of the United States is a misjudgement that could lead to mistakes, China’s ambassador to the United States said in a speech to an online forum. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday, his first full day in the job, that he favored cooperation with China on climate change and other issues of shared concern, even as he reiterated that genocide had been committed against Uighur Muslims in its Xinjiang region. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department is reviewing a Trump administration determination that China has committed genocide by repressing Uighur Muslims in its Xinjiang region to make sure that it sticks, President Joe Biden’s pick for U.N. ambassador said on Wednesday. – Reuters

begrudgingly refreshing for Republicans — and it’s something they wish they saw from Trump. – Politico

China can continue spending money on anti-ship ballistic missiles, but it might not be the capability needed to win if a conflict broke out between the U.S. and China, the admiral overseeing Navy intelligence said Wednesday. – USNI News

China reserves all options against Taiwan, including the use of force, a Chinese official said Wednesday while issuing a veiled warning at the new administration of Joe Biden. – Newsweek

A lawmaker for Taiwan’s ruling party accused Xi Jinping of hypocrisy after the Chinese president declared “the strong should not bully the weak” during a speech addressing world leaders at Davos on Monday. – Newsweek

Eugene Kontorovich writes: China is a trading partner and economic behemoth, and one with which the U.S. has extensive diplomatic contacts. Will the U.S. now reframe all its relations with Beijing? Anything resembling business as usual will make a joke out of genocide. – Wall Street Journal

Jude Blanchette, Bonnie S. Glaser, Scott Kennedy, and Scott Livingston write: While CCP disinformation campaigns pose a clearly identifiable threat to the United States and Taiwan, they are only one part of a larger disinformation problem facing democracies in this era of instant and omnipresent communication technologies. Indeed, the experience of both Taiwan and the United States suggest that rival political parties are incentivized to exaggerate and weaponize charges of “foreign interference” against each other—charges which often are more damaging to underlying trust levels in a democracy than the original foreign disinformation attacks themselves. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Hal Brands writes: Today, Biden’s team is appropriately focused on rallying a multilateral coalition against China. But a truly competitive strategy also requires imposing costs, tolerating diplomatic friction and taking strategic risks that throw Beijing off balance. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: Biden should direct U.S. embassies in Europe to offer whatever support these parliamentarians might seek or benefit from. He should also continue to declassify U.S. intelligence reporting on what is actually happening to the Uighurs and ensure that European media outlets receive any evidence that EU officials have been bribed by Chinese officials for their support. If all of these efforts fail, Biden should introduce tariffs on European automobile exports (a policy that will bear primary impact on Germany). The EU must know it cannot kowtow to China without losing American friends. – Washington Examiner

Asia

The United States rejects China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea beyond what it is permitted under international law and stands with Southeast Asian nations resisting its pressure, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. – Reuters

China said on Wednesday it was seeking details about 25 of its nationals who were among 61 crew on two supertankers seized by Indonesia on suspicion of illegally transferring oil. – Reuters

On Wednesday, Biden told Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga that his administration is committed to defending Japan, including the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed both by Japan and China, which calls them the Diaoyu Islands. – Agence France-Presse

New Zealand has suggested that its close ally and neighbor Australia should follow its lead in treating China with respect in order to mend strained diplomatic relations with Beijing. – Bloomberg

Europe

Frontex, the European Union agency responsible for monitoring the bloc’s external borders, announced on Wednesday that it was suspending operations in Hungary, which has ignored a court order to bring its asylum practices in line with European Union law. – New York Times

Hundreds of survivors of the Holocaust are set to be vaccinated this week in Austria and Slovakia as part of vaccine drives organized in observance of the 76th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp, a day known as International Holocaust Remembrance Day. – New York Times

The European Union and drugmaker AstraZeneca sparred Wednesday over a delay in coronavirus vaccine deliveries amid a deepening dispute that raises concerns about international competition for limited supplies of the shots needed to end the pandemic. – Associated Press

Early signs of disruption caused by Britain’s shift to its new, less open trading relationship with the European Union are emerging in economic data. – Reuters

Germany’s foreign minister questioned whether transatlantic sanctions are appropriate even if Washington and Berlin have policy differences following a constructive first phone call with new U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday. – Reuters

The foreign ministers of Hungary and Ukraine were expected to meet in Kyiv on Wednesday for talks on repairing badly strained relations but Budapest said its diplomatic missions in the ex-Soviet republic had received threats of “bloodletting” violence. – Reuters

The European Union and the United States must be “braver and stronger” in their response to helping end the disputed rule of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said on Wednesday. – Reuters

New U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin praised Germany for hosting U.S. troops in a call with his German counterpart on Wednesday, fueling speculation that President Joe Biden could overturn a drawdown ordered by his predecessor Donald Trump. – Reuters

Alan Riley writes: Team Biden would clearly like to avoid having a battle with Chancellor Merkel over NS2. Equally, however, the new administration does not want to leave its allies, including Ukraine, vulnerable to Russian energy leverage. The truth is that the opponents of NS2 have a strong hand to play. They must not be distracted from this fundamental reality. Some kind of negotiated compromise with NS2’s boosters in Germany may be possible, but only if the European energy market is fundamentally reformed to ensure a level playing field. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Nikos Tsafos writes: It might help, as a starting point, for both the United States and Germany to adopt a different tone. For the United States, telling Europeans how they should pursue their energy security tends to be counterproductive—no German needs a lecture on what “Russia is really about” or “what Europe really needs.” By the same token, the German retort, often repeated, that Nord Stream 2 is a “commercial project” and that the government has nothing to do with it is nonsense. Any compromise would benefit from a change in tone. –  Center for Strategic and International Studies

United States

President Biden’s pick for ambassador to the United Nations defended her record of speaking out against China’s global ambitions on Wednesday after Republicans pressed her over a speech to a Chinese organization at a Georgia university. – Wall Street Journal

An Iraqi-born British national has been criminally charged in New Jersey with involvement in a bribery scheme to obtain millions of dollars of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reconstruction contracts in Iraq, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden’s nominee for ambassador to the United Nations stressed on Wednesday the importance of U.S. re-engagement with the 193-member world body in order to challenge efforts by China to “drive an authoritarian agenda.” – Reuters

Danielle Pletka writes: One thing that would strengthen Biden’s hand would be a genuine hand across the aisle; China and Iran aren’t Republican or Democratic problems, they’re American ones. But that’s not going to be easy with Biden’s left nipping at his heels and Republicans still furious at their treatment over the last twelve years. Indeed, only one thing is really sure for President Biden: America divided will make our enemies’ job that much easier. – The National Interest

Mohammed Soliman writes: America is no longer living in a post-9/11 era. Today’s national security threats look vastly different than those it faced from transnational terrorist groups almost 20 years ago. America is long overdue in opening a new chapter with Muslims living in the United States and around the world. Now more than ever, the Biden administration needs an inclusive foreign policy toward the Muslim world that draws upon the talents of Muslim Americans, who are better situated to be a trusted bridge between Washington and Muslim capitals. – Middle East Institute

Defense

The Maritime Administration has inked a deal for two more training ships for its prospective Merchant Marine officers in a move that could provide the Navy with a suitable hull for special mission auxiliary ships in the future. – Defense News

But with a new administration in Washington, the Air Force is stepping up its case for adopting what it calls a long-range standoff weapon to replace the aging air-launched cruise missile in order to maintain the strategic bomber leg of the nuclear triad. – Washington Times

The U.S. Army is dealing with excessive rotor blade vibrations in its latest variant of the Boeing-manufactured Chinook cargo helicopter as it heads into a limited-user test during the first half of the calendar year, according to a report by the Pentagon’s chief weapons tester. – Defense News

The Pentagon will begin incorporating climate analysis into its war-gaming and analysis efforts as well as featuring the issue as part of its future National Defense Strategy. – Defense News

The U.S. Army’s Joint Assault Bridge struggled in its first initial operational test and evaluation but saw drastic improvement in a second attempt in late 2020, opening up the program to begin conditional fielding to units, the bridging product manager within the Program Executive Office Combat Support and Combat Service Support, told Defense News. – Defense News

The Maritime Administration has inked a deal for two more training ships for its prospective Merchant Marine officers in a move that could provide the Navy with a suitable hull for special mission auxiliary ships in the future. – Defense News

With the Jan. 27 announcement of a new $275 million charge on the KC-46, Boeing has now paid as much in cost overruns for the troubled program as the U.S. Air Force invested in the tanker’s development. – Defense News