Fdd's overnight brief

January 27, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel recovered the body of the last hostage taken into Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, the military said Monday, paving the way for Israel to reopen the Palestinian enclave’s only international border crossing and removing an obstacle that had kept a fragile peace deal from advancing. – Wall Street Journal

The United States believes disarmament by Hamas militants in Gaza comes along with some sort of amnesty for the Palestinian group, a U.S. official said on Monday. – Reuters

Italy on Monday summoned Israel’s ambassador to protest after two Italian policemen were threatened at gunpoint by an Israeli during a field visit in the occupied West Bank, the foreign ministry said. – Reuters

Israeli airlines El Al (ELAL.TA), Israir (ISRG.TA), and Arkia said on Monday they would allow flight cancellations due to uncertainty in the region. – Reuters

Israel’s credit ratings should be upgraded to reflect the October ceasefire with Hamas, particularly as bond markets have already adjusted to a post-war scenario, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s top economic adviser, Avi Simhon. – Bloomberg

The U.S. on Monday suggested it could take military action to force Hamas to disarm or allow Israel to do so before it moves forward with rebuilding the Gaza Strip. – Politico

President Trump told Axios in an interview on Monday that Hamas had helped locate the remains of the last Israeli hostage. He called on the group to now follow through on its commitment to disarm. – Axios

Israel is readying for talks with the Trump administration over a new 10-year security deal, with the aim of extending US military support even as Israeli leaders prepare for a future without billions of dollars of American cash grants. – ⁠Financial Times

Following the return to Israel on Monday of the final slain hostage, Ran Gvili, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump both said in separate statements that the Gaza ceasefire’s next challenge would be the disarmament of Hamas. – Times of Israel

Until the last moment, Talik Gvili, the mother of Ran Gvili, refused to think of her son, the final hostage in Gaza, as definitely dead. The counterterror police officer had jumped on his motorcycle on October 7, 2023, with a broken shoulder, and went off to fight marauding Hamas terrorists. His family did not hear from him again. – Times of Israel

Eylon Levy, former Israeli government spokesman, explained on Monday why he is taking his yellow hostage ribbon pin off but keeping it in his pocket. “The October 7 hostage crisis is over, but it won’t be the last hostage crisis,” Levy said in a video posted to social media. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: The return of Gvili does not erase the trauma, nor does it alleviate the grief of families who buried loved ones months ago, or the challenges of the Gaza captivity survivors and the struggles of those who welcomed them back home. Something fundamental has shifted, allowing Israel to start thinking about turning a page. Now, after 844 days and for the first time since October 7, it is time to take a deep breath and acknowledge that an obligation has been met, and that the nation can begin, slowly and cautiously, to move forward with nobody left behind in Gaza. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Iran shut off the internet and blocked communications, trying to keep the world in the dark about the deadly wave of violence it used to crush antigovernment protests. Now as rights groups investigate, they say they are uncovering evidence that the death toll is far higher than they originally thought, with some projecting it will top 10,000. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports indicating that the Iranian government’s position is weakening, according to several people familiar with the information. – New York Times

As U.S. warplanes and aircraft carriers approach the Persian Gulf, Tehran and its regional allies are warning they will respond aggressively to a potential strike. – New York Times

A U.N. expert on Iran said on Monday she had received reports of protesters linked to nationwide demonstrations being removed from hospitals and detained by Iranian security forces – a major violation of the right to medical care under international law. – Reuters

Iranian businesses are reeling from an internet blackout, imposed while authorities used massive force to crush large-scale protests, which has crippled commerce in an already battered economy. – Reuters

The United States is “open for business” if Iran wishes to contact Washington, a U.S. official said on Monday, as the United States seeks to pressure Tehran over a government crackdown on protesters. – Reuters

The leader of Lebanon’s Iran-aligned Hezbollah movement, Naim Qassem, said on Monday that his group was concerned about confronting Washington’s threat against Iran, particularly any threat against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. – Reuters

Iran’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests killed at least 6,126 people while many others still are feared dead, activists said Tuesday, as a U.S. aircraft carrier group arrived in the Mideast to lead any American military response to the crisis.- ⁠Associated Press

Two Iranian-backed militias in the Mideast are signaling their willingness to launch new attacks, likely trying to back Iran, as officials acknowledged the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region Monday. – Associated Press

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are exchanging messages on an “informal” basis, the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency reported, as rights groups confirm more deaths in the recent uprising against the Islamic Republic. – Bloomberg

President Trump told Axios in an interview on Monday that the situation with Iran is “in flux” because he sent a “big armada” to the region but thinks Tehran genuinely wants to cut a deal. – Axios

The US Department of State is offering a reward of up to $15 million for information that would lead to the identification of entities or individuals involved in oil sales conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Farsi-language Rewards for Justice X/Twitter account shared on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Masih Alinejad writes: President Obama had a chance in 2009 to support millions of Iranians who protested a rigged election. He spoke out but chose not to do more, to avoid undermining the protesters, he said, and to avoid ruining negotiations over a nuclear deal with Iran that he believed would help secure a wider peace in the region. Mr. Obama has since regretted that decision. Now America has another chance to act in support of Iranian protesters. History will not accept “We were monitoring the situation” as an answer. Inaction has a body count. – New York Times

Davood Moradian writes: The scene at the Mashhad airport the day I left, January 14, was profoundly emotional. Only a small number of passengers had been fortunate enough to secure tickets for the day’s last flight to Istanbul. […] Not only grief but also anxiety infused the room, amid media reports of imminent U.S. military strikes that could usher in an uncertain and violent future. As my plane ascended, I looked out at the light beams emanating from the Goharshad Mosque at the Imam Reza Shrine below. The historic region from which both Mashhad and Herat take their identity is Khorasan—literally, “where the sun rises.” I found this consoling in that moment, reminded of the dawn and its fragile but persistent promise. – The Atlantic

Russia and Ukraine

Talks among Russian, Ukrainian and American officials to end the war in Ukraine are set to resume next week, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday, after a round of negotiations that President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine described as constructive. – New York Times

Two enterprises caught fire and one person was injured in the city of Slavyansk-on-Kuban in Russia’s Krasnodar region after drone fragments fell on them, the regional emergencies centre said on Monday. – Reuters

Russian drones and missiles hit Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, late on Monday, knocking out power during freezing winter weather, while 23 people were wounded in an overnight attack on the southern city of Odesa, officials said. – Reuters

Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Ukraine on Monday of seeking to meddle in his country’s upcoming elections and ordered Kyiv’s ambassador to be summoned to the foreign ministry. – ⁠Associated Press

Ukraine said it hit a small oil refinery in southern Russia, the third attack this month on its foe’s fuel-producing industry. Explosions were recorded at the territory of the Slavyansk facility after Ukrainian drones struck it overnight and hit “elements of a primary crude processing unit”, the General Staff in Kyiv said in a Telegram statement. – Bloomberg

Drones are responsible for between 70 and 80 percent of those injured or killed on both sides of the war in Ukraine, according to a new report by a key Latvian intelligence service. – Politico

The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia, according to eight people familiar with talks. – ⁠Financial Times

Matthew Kaminski writes: Zelenskyy also made the point that can’t be said often enough: Ukraine’s one-million-man, militarily tech-savvy army, makes it Europe’s best defense and the tip of the West’s spear against a China-led authoritarian bloc. Zelenskyy gave little insight into his talks with Trump here.  As the week ended, the Ukrainians found themselves on slippery ground still, if no longer iced out. […] The one thing you can also say for sure is that Trump will be center stage and the ultimate ending for him, for the “global elites,” the Ukrainians, or anyone else, has yet to be written. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Eric Ciaramella and Sophia Besch write: But Europe’s broader rearmament drive is still largely unfolding within NATO frameworks. To become truly strategically self-reliant, the continent will need to develop the capacity to plan, command, and sustain operations at scale and to anchor Ukraine’s security in a long-term rearmament strategy that does not rely on the shifting preferences of Washington. Europe has begun to organize itself for a new era. Whether that effort succeeds will depend on its capacity to sustain Ukraine’s defense. – Foreign Affairs

Syria

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Moscow, pro-government Syria TV reported on Monday. – Reuters

Russia is withdrawing forces from an airport in northeastern Syria, moving to end its military presence in a corner of the country where the Damascus government is trying to seize control from Kurdish forces, five Syrian sources said. – Reuters

Syria and Jordan signed an agreement on Monday to supply natural gas to Syria via Jordanian territory, aiming to bolster Syria’s fragile electricity grid, officials said. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Over the past year, Iraqi spy chief Hamid al-Shatri says, he has been warily tracking the growing numbers of Islamic State militants over the border in Syria. – Washington Post

The United Arab Emirates will not let its airspace, territory or territorial waters be used for any hostile military actions against Iran, the UAE foreign ministry said on Monday, reaffirming its commitment to neutrality and regional stability. – Reuters

Qatar will provide Lebanon with about $434 million in financial support, with most of it aimed at the country’s ailing energy sector, according to Qatar’s Fund for Development. – Reuters

UAE-based Al Habtoor Group said on Monday it will pursue legal action against Lebanese authorities over $1.7 billion in lost investments, dealing a possible blow to the Lebanese government’s efforts to encourage Gulf funding as a way to kickstart its economy. – Reuters

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said on Monday that an Israeli strike in the country’s south killed TV presenter Ali Nour al-Din, who worked for the group’s affiliated Al-Manar television station. – Reuters

Eric R. Mandel writes: Public normalization would force Saudi Arabia more firmly into the American orbit, blunt jihadist ideology, and consolidate a regional bloc capable of countering Iran and its proxies. Trump wants Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords as part of his legacy. The path forward is leverage. Any sale of F-35s, a formal US defense treaty, or approval of a civilian nuclear program should be explicitly conditioned on normalization with Israel. Strategic alignment should be earned, not assumed. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

South Korea scrambled on Tuesday to assure the U.S. it remained committed to implementing a trade deal after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would hike tariffs on autos and other imports from its ally, blaming a delay in enacting the pact agreed last year. – Reuters

U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby and South Korean Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back agreed during talks on Monday to deepen cooperation on Seoul’s pursuit of a nuclear-powered submarine, South Korea’s defence ministry said. – Reuters

North Korea launched suspected ballistic missiles toward the sea on Tuesday in apparent weapons tests, according to its neighbors, as the North heightens animosities with rival South Korea ahead of a major political meeting. – ⁠Associated Press

A top Pentagon official praised South Korea as a model ally ready to take greater responsibility for its own security after a new US defense strategy signaled a reduction in American military support to deter North Korea from aggression. – Bloomberg

Catherine Thorbecke writes: Some of that concern is fair, and so far, the government has appeared sympathetic to local industry feedback. But Seoul deserves credit for acting before the backlash becomes irreversible. […] The point of guardrails isn’t to slow deployment, it’s to make it sustainable. When it comes to such a transformative technology, the bigger constraint may not be regulation but trust. If Seoul can scale AI while holding the line on deception and abuse, it will show other jurisdictions how to do both. – Bloomberg

J. James Kim writes: South Korea, like other allies, will be asked to shoulder more of the burden in defending its own backyard while the United States maintains its primary focus on securing the homeland and the Western Hemisphere, as well as strengthening deterrence by denial in the Indo-Pacific. The 70-year-old US-ROK alliance has reached a critical juncture. While the alliance has maintained peace and stability on the peninsula since the signing of the armistice in 1953, it will now be asked to adapt and evolve with the changing times. How South Korea navigates this transition—strategically, operationally, industrially, and diplomatically—will shape not only the future of the alliance, but also the security architecture of Northeast Asia. – The National Interest

China

China’s vice president and foreign minister held talks with the secretary-general of the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Monday, according to a ministry statement and the official news agency, Xinhua. – Reuters

China on Monday warned its citizens against travelling to Japan during the Lunar New Year, its longest public holiday, as Beijing’s anger over a comment Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made in early November about democratically governed Taiwan showed no signs of abating. – Reuters

China is expected to boost imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, as record production and competitive prices propel shipments, reinforcing South America’s dominance in the world’s biggest oilseed importer, even as U.S. supplies return. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to strengthen ties with Vietnam in a call to its newly re-appointed leader, according to Chinese state media on Monday, saying the two nations should enhance cooperation in regional and international affairs. – Reuters

The top US diplomat in China said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s purge of his most senior general is driven by his effort to both secure “total control” of his military and root out corruption. – Bloomberg

Walter Russell Mead writes: In the short to medium term, the techno-autocracies often did well. Louis XIV, Napoleon, imperial Germany, Hitler, Tojo and Stalin all had some good years. But time and again the poisonous isolation that absolute power imposes on its wielders blunted the edge of their insight and degraded the capacity of their societies. The question haunting China today isn’t whether Zhang Youxia sold military secrets to the U.S. It is whether the Chinese Communist Party is falling prey to the authoritarian decadence that brought so many of its predecessors to ruin and defeat. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Schuman writes: China has a strong incentive to push for these compromises now, given how Trump’s fickle nature could suddenly shut the window of opportunity. Beijing is also well aware that American democracy is inherently prone to flip-flops and that the hard-line Washington consensus on China is likely to return with the next election. At this point, only one thing is certain: In what has become a contest between two men, victory will go to the leader who operates strategically and with discipline, not erratically and on impulse. – The Atlantic

South Asia

European carmakers, squeezed by U.S. tariffs and price wars in China, will get a welcome boost from an EU-India trade deal that sharply drops tariffs on car imports, but face a tough market dominated by homegrown firms and compact Japanese “kei cars.” – Reuters

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely visit India the first week of March and sign deals on uranium, energy, minerals ​and artificial intelligence, Dinesh Patnaik, India’s High Commissioner to Canada said in an interview. – Reuters

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Tuesday that India and the European Union have reached a free trade agreement to deepen their economic and strategic ties. The accord, which touches a whopping 2 billion people, was concluded after nearly two decades of negotiations. It was dubbed the “mother of all deals” by both sides. – Associated Press

The political party aligned with Myanmar’s junta projected its secured victory in an election that the United Nations and many governments have criticized as flawed. – Bloomberg

Asia

Hitoshi Nakama, 76, sees himself as a frontline defender of Japan’s claims to disputed islands in the East China Sea, where he regularly evades Chinese coast guard ships to harvest the bountiful waters. – Reuters

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan’s strategic alliance with the U.S. would collapse if Tokyo were to turn away from a conflict in Taiwan, but distanced herself from previous comments that suggested a possible military response in such an event. – Reuters

The Philippine and U.S. militaries sailed together at a disputed South China Sea shoal this week, Manila’s armed forces said on Tuesday, performing joint exercises to boost interoperability between the two treaty allies. – Reuters

The Philippine Coast Guard will deploy divers on Tuesday to search for the remaining missing passengers after a vessel carrying more than 300 people capsized en route to the southern province of Sulu, leaving at least 18 dead. – Reuters

Cambodia will join U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, the country’s prime minister Hun Manet said in a Facebook post on Monday. Joining the board demonstrates Cambodia’s goodwill and strong commitment to global peace, Hun Manet wrote. – Reuters

Judges at the International Criminal Court have ruled that former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, 80, is fit to attend pre-trial hearings and will hold a confirmation of charges hearing on February 23, the court said on Monday. – Reuters

Indonesia has received three Rafale fighter jets from France in the first deliveries from a multi-billion-dollar defence deal between the two countries, a defence ministry official told Reuters on Monday, marking a major upgrade to the country’s ageing military hardware. – Reuters

Authorities in Azerbaijan said on Tuesday they had arrested three individuals planning an attack on a foreign embassy in the capital Baku at the instructions of Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), the Afghan offshoot of Islamic State. – Reuters

Europe

Shares in Orsted and Vestas Wind Systems rose Monday after a group of European countries agreed to boost offshore wind capacity in the North Sea through joint clean-energy projects. – Wall Street Journal

Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, warned Europe on Monday that it could not defend itself without the United States in remarks aimed to address the growing worries that the United States and Europe are pulling apart over President Trump’s ambitions for Greenland. – New York Times

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain will leave on Tuesday for a high-stakes visit to China, seeking new trade and investment from the world’s second-largest economy as relations between the United States and its Western allies grow increasingly volatile. – New York Times

Truck drivers across four Western Balkan countries began a blockade of border cargo terminals on Monday in protest over restrictive EU entry rules that have left drivers facing deportation for exceeding Schengen visit limits. – Reuters

Italy will ask European Union partners this week to place Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) on the EU’s terrorist register, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Monday, signalling a shift in Rome’s position. – Reuters

Finland’s Border Guard hopes to prevent damage to critical undersea infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland with a maritime surveillance centre it plans to set up in cooperation with other Baltic Sea states and the EU Commission, it said on Monday. – Reuters

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to apologise for remarks suggesting that America’s NATO allies in Afghanistan avoided frontline service, joining a chorus of criticism from European politicians and army veterans. – Reuters

Spain has ordered the expulsion of Nicaragua’s ambassador and another Nicaraguan diplomat, the Foreign Ministry said on Monday, a day after Nicaragua expelled Spain’s ambassador and his deputy from Managua. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for a swift and thorough investigation into the killing of an American citizen by federal immigration agents in the state of Minnesota. – Bloomberg

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic nominated Tomislav Coric, a central bank vice governor, to take over as finance minister. Coric, 46, was named to succeed Marko Primorac, who plans to take up the post of vice president of the European Investment Bank. – Bloomberg

Norway’s $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund has to raise its preparedness to handle growing geopolitical risks, a government-appointed advisory panel said. – Bloomberg

Hungary and Slovakia will sue the European Union over its plan to ban all imports of Russian gas as soon as the law officially comes into force, the countries’ foreign ministers announced today. – Politico

Marc Champion writes: The Chagos accord is not, as Farage claims, “the worst deal any British government has done in history.” I can think of many candidates for that accolade, including Farage’s beloved Brexit. If this deal now dies it will be as a result of cheap politicking — on both sides of the Atlantic — that has no business deciding national security. – Bloomberg

Africa

Ugandan military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba on Monday denied allegations by opposition leader Bobi Wine that soldiers attacked Wine’s wife during an overnight raid on their home. – Reuters

Tanzania expects to sign before June a deal for its stalled project to construct a $42 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, a senior government minister said on Monday, with production set to start in eight years’ time. – Reuters

A probe by Nigeria’s military found that some of the 16 officers arrested last year for misconduct may have been plotting to overthrow the government and they will now face trial, the Defence Headquarters said in a statement on Monday. – Reuters

Norwegian police said on Monday they had charged an oil company and two executives in Norway on suspicion of paying millions of dollars in bribes to close family members of Congo Republic President Denis Sassou Nguesso. – Reuters

Somalia’s al Shabaab militants killed a local chief and a teacher in Hulugho, a northeastern Kenyan region near the Somali border, Kenyan police said on Monday, adding that security in the area had been reinforced following the attack. – Reuters

South Sudan’s military has ordered all civilians and personnel from the UN mission and all other charities to evacuate three counties in Jonglei State ahead of an operation there against opposition forces. – Reuters

The Americas

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said President Trump’s tariff threats likely represent some prepositioning ahead of negotiations later this year to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva held a phone call with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Monday and agreed to visit Washington soon, the Brazilian government said in a statement. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, in a call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, “aggressively” walked back some of the comments he made during a speech in Davos last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday. – Reuters

A proposed reform of Venezuela’s oil law is enough to encourage companies working in the country to expand and for some new entrants to begin investing, but deeper reforms would be necessary to attract the $100 billion the U.S. says is required to revamp the nation’s energy sector, foreign and local executives and lawyers said. – Reuters

Mexico’s state oil company backtracked on plans to send a much-needed shipment of crude oil to Cuba, a long-time ally of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. – Bloomberg

When President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva oversaw Brazil’s biggest-ever organized crime sting in August, taking down a nearly $10 billion money-laundering scheme without firing a single bullet, the public seemed unimpressed. – Bloomberg

United States

In a downtown Houston bar, Matthew Goitia, a director at Pelorus Terminals, lays out his early idea to refurbish and build marine terminals that can blend and export crude and ship chemical products in Venezuela. – Reuters

President Donald Trump and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz struck a conciliatory note after a private phone call on Monday, in a sign the two sides want to defuse a crisis over the Trump-ordered deportation drive that has left two U.S. citizens dead in Minneapolis. – Reuters

A growing number of Republicans called for a full investigation after federal agents shot and killed a protester in Minneapolis, a sign of unease within the party about the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration tactics. – Bloomberg

Greg Bovino, the US Border Patrol commander who became the face of President Donald Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown in Minneapolis, is leaving the city following a mounting public outcry over the killing of two US citizens by federal agents in recent weeks. – Bloomberg

Washington is charging toward a partial government shutdown over President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda even as senators and the White House scramble to find an elusive off-ramp. – Politico

Cybersecurity

France’s National Assembly on Monday backed legislation to ban children under 15 years old from social media on Monday, amid growing concerns about online bullying and mental health risks. – Reuters

Elon Musk’s X faces investigation by the European Union into whether it disseminates illegal content, following public outcry over the spreading of manipulated sexualised images by its artificial intelligence Grok chatbot. – Reuters

Two Romanian nationals are under investigation after authorities uncovered a website suspected of allowing users to hire contract killers, according to local law enforcement. – The Record

Defense

The death toll from the Trump administration’s strikes on alleged drug boats is up to 126 people, with the inclusion of those presumed dead after being lost at sea, the U.S. military confirmed Monday. – ⁠Associated Press

Leonardo DRS announced the opening of a new naval power and propulsion facility in Charleston, South Carolina, to support the U.S. Navy’s drive for shipbuilding and its nuclear-powered Columbia-class submarine program — which is currently facing an estimated 17-month delay. – Defense News

The U.S. Air Force is launching a new version of its deployment design later this year, dubbed Air Expeditionary Wing 2.0, in an effort to improve readiness by forming the AEW 2.0 and allowing the unit’s components to train 18 months before a deployment. – Military News