Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Bazaar workers and other merchants historically have been some of the Islamic Republic’s most loyal supporters. They helped to propel its leaders to power in 1979, and largely sat out the mass protests that swept Iran in past years. This time, they were the ones who initiated the uprising. – Wall Street Journal

The Central Bank of Iran bought more than $500 million in dollar-backed digital assets in the past year to mitigate a currency crisis and bypass US sanctions, blockchain analytics company Elliptic said in a report. – Bloomberg

Iran warned it would respond “with everything we have” to any new U.S. military attack, accusing Washington and its allies of exploiting recent unrest to push the region toward a wider war. – Fox News

Speaking at a Washington town hall on Monday, former CIA director and retired four-star US Army general David Petraeus told the audience that the regime’s crackdown on protests “signals enormous questions about the regime’s ability to sustain the situation,” while admitting that “it is starting to look like the regime will be able to put [the protests] down.”  – Jerusalem Post

An Iranian man lay among the dead at a Kahrizak forensic facility, pretending to be deceased for three days, fearing that if he were discovered, regime officers would execute him with a “finishing shot,” the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center reported on Wednesday, citing an account it had received. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian state TV has issued the first official death toll from recent protests, saying 3,117 people were killed, while the foreign minister issued the most direct threat yet against the United States after Tehran’s bloody crackdown, warning the Islamic Republic will be “firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack.”- Times of Israel

Anchal Vohra writes: A more likely scenario, Alemzadeh argued, was that “the political elite marginalizes its ideological hard-liners—including [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei—and individuals who benefit from the sanctions regime in order to salvage the economy.” If we don’t see an outright rebellion at the top, there could nevertheless be a metamorphosis of the state into something more acceptable to the Iranian people, as well as to the United States—although such an evolution is unlikely to result in a democratic Iran. – Foreign Policy

Syria

The Syrian government’s rapid takeover of territory long held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces took shape in a string of high-stakes meetings in Damascus, Paris and Iraq earlier this month, nine sources briefed on the closed-door summits told Reuters. – Reuters

Syria’s government accused the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces of attacks it said killed 11 soldiers on Wednesday, but the SDF disputed key elements of the account, blaming at least one deadly blast on explosives being moved by Syrian troops. – Reuters

The Syrian government has seized swathes of northern and eastern Syria from Kurdish forces, consolidating President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rule nearly 14 months after Bashar al-Assad was toppled. – Reuters

Rifaat al-Assad, the brother of the late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad known by critics as the “butcher of Hama” for crushing an Islamist uprising in the city in 1982 before unsuccessfully challenging for power and going into exile, died on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkey recently deployed an advanced radar system at Damascus International Airport in a move that could limit Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian airspace. – Jerusalem Post

Andrew J. Tabler, James Jeffrey, Devorah Margolin, Aaron Y. Zelin, Soner Cagaptay, Zohar Palti, and Assaf Orion write: At the same time, Damascus and Jerusalem still share a common interest in keeping the Iranian axis out of Syria and, perhaps, establishing a quiet border. As such, they have opened talks on new security arrangements, recently agreeing in Paris to establish a security coordination cell under U.S. auspices. Yet no breakthrough has been achieved on broader arrangements so far. Even before the offensive against the Kurds, Israel was not expected to withdraw from the areas it has occupied in south Syria anytime soon; the odds are even slimmer today. – Washington Institute 

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s special prosecution team said on Thursday it has filed an appeal after a court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges including obstructing attempts to arrest him following his failed bid to impose martial law. – Reuters

South Korea introduced on Thursday what it says is the world’s first comprehensive set of laws regulating artificial intelligence, aiming to strengthen trust and safety in the sector, but startups fretted that compliance could hold them back. – Reuters

Dozens of South Koreans detained in Cambodia for alleged involvement in online scam compounds will be sent home this week to face investigations, officials said Thursday, in what would be the largest group reparation of Korean criminal suspects from abroad. – ⁠Associated Press

South Asia

Pakistan will join U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” to help achieve lasting peace in Gaza, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

India’s Reliance Industries Ltd operator of the world’s largest refining complex, is set to receive sanctions-compliant Russian oil in February and March after a one-month pause, four sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

Police in Indian Kashmir have asked at least three journalists working in the region to sign a pledge vowing not to “disturb peace” in the region, two of them told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

Campaigning began Thursday for Bangladesh’s first national elections since the 2024 uprising that ousted longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. – Associated Press

Air India Ltd. is set to report a record annual loss after last year’s deadly crash and airspace shutdowns wiped out progress toward a turnaround, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Europe

When President Trump arrived in the snow-covered Swiss Alps on Wednesday afternoon, European leaders were panicking that his efforts to acquire Greenland would trigger a trans-Atlantic conflagration. By the time the sun set, Trump had backed down. – Wall Street Journal

The European Commission wants to make it easier for telecommunications operators to upgrade Europe’s critical networks by giving them more access to spectrum and phasing out copper networks over the next decade. – Wall Street Journal

Lawmakers in the European Parliament agreed to put off work on the European Union’s trade agreement with the U.S. as President Trump continues his push to take over Greenland. – Wall Street Journal

Members of the European Parliament on Wednesday narrowly voted to send the bloc’s deal with Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay to the Court of Justice of the EU for a judicial review on Wednesday. The motion passed with 334 votes in favor and 324 against, with 11 abstentions. – Wall Street Journal

Some Greenlanders and Danes expressed relief and even hope after President Trump suddenly signaled on Wednesday night that a solution had been reached with NATO that would avoid a confrontation over Greenland. But some Greenlandic politicians said it was wrong that they had not been involved in the talks. – New York Times

Pope Leo is among world leaders invited to join U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace”, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s top diplomatic official, said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to buy Greenland as he says it is the only way for the United States to secure its defence. Denmark and Greenland, an autonomous territory, refuse and say any concerns Washington has can be addressed via their existing defence agreement. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he had agreed to lower the 39% U.S. tariff rate on imports from Switzerland to 15% amid pressure from Swiss companies, including Rolex, but the rate could rise again. – Reuters

NATO is facing difficult times due to the crisis over Greenland, but Western allies must remember their common adversary is Russia, which is increasing its military presence in the Arctic, Norway’s defence minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Britain wants to de-escalate trade tensions with the United States, finance ​minister Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump threatened to punish European ‌countries for opposing his push to acquire Greenland. – Reuters

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen softened her tone while answering judges’ questions during her appeal trial in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday, but denied wrongdoing, after being barred from public office over a conviction for misusing EU funds. – Reuters

Italy needs more time to decide whether to join U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” because parts of its statute appear incompatible with the constitution, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Spain is urging the EU to move towards creating a joint army for the bloc as a deterrence measure, Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said in comments to Reuters on Wednesday ahead of a day of meetings in Davos. – Reuters

Britain will not be signing U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace treaty on Thursday, foreign minister Yvette Cooper said, citing concerns over Russia’s possible involvement in the initiative aimed at resolving global conflicts. – Reuters

France has called for NATO to hold a military exercise in Greenland and says it is “ready to contribute,” according to a statement from French President Emmanuel Macron’s office on Wednesday. – Politico

Walter Russell Mead writes: More disruption is coming as the accelerating tech revolution transforms our economies and external challengers press ahead with their revisionist projects. Under the circumstances, changes within the Western alliances are unavoidable. But change doesn’t have to mean dissolution. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte seems to grasp this. Mr. Trump emerged from a meeting with Mr. Rutte following the speech to post on Truth Social that they had found the basis for a long-term agreement over Greenland that met key White House demands. For now at least, the trans-Atlantic alliance has survived. – Wall Street Journal

Mario Monti and Sylvie Goulard write: After World War II, the U.S. contributed generously to the relaunch of the European economy. It also massively influenced new democratic institutions in Germany and the nascent European Community. Maybe now it’s Europe’s turn to give something back and defend these values — and that means taking action. This is, after all, what the ACI was meant for. – Politico

The Americas

Seventy-four percent of Peruvians, 63 percent of Chileans, a majority of Colombians, Brazilians, Argentines and even Panamanians, whose country was itself invaded by the United States to remove an authoritarian leader nearly three decades ago, approved of the capture, according to several polls. – New York Times

Two oil tankers seized this month by the U.S. in its campaign against Venezuela were near Puerto Rico on Wednesday, a Reuters witness and Tankertrackers.com data said, the first sightings almost since their capture and a possible hint at their destination. – Reuters

Chile’s mining industry expressed concerns on Wednesday after President-elect Jose Antonio Kast named one minister to oversee both mining and the economy, warning that the economically critical sector needs dedicated oversight. – Reuters

Peruvian President Jose Jeri told lawmakers on Wednesday that calls for his removal over undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman are an attempt to destabilize his government and disrupt upcoming elections. – Reuters

Ecuador will impose a 30% tariff on goods from Colombia, a major electricity provider, starting on February 1, President Daniel Noboa said on Wednesday, citing a trade deficit and a lack of cooperation on fighting drug trafficking on their shared border. – Reuters

The vast field of over 5,800 electric and hybrid vehicles gleamed on the cargo deck of the BYD Changzhou, an Chinese container vessel unloading Wednesday at a river port in eastern Argentina. – Associated Press

Venezuela’s legislature on Thursday is set to discuss oil reforms that, if implemented, will unwind the state monopoly of the industry and let private companies produce and sell crude from the country’s vast reserves. – Bloomberg

United States

The U.S. is due to officially exit the World Health Organization on Thursday, in the face of warnings it will hit both U.S. health and global health and also in violation of a U.S. law that requires Washington to pay the U.N. health agency $260 million in fees that it owes. – Reuters

President Donald Trump dramatically reversed course Tuesday on a U.K. plan to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while warning it could jeopardize U.S. access to the Diego Garcia military base. – Fox News

Michele Norris writes: The flames that engulfed Beth Israel Congregation were meant to destroy. But they have instead illuminated the urgent need for solidarity, the power of resilience and the enduring strength of community. We cannot allow hate to win. We must choose connection over division, understanding over ignorance, and love over fear. Together, we can build a future where sacred spaces are protected, where all people can worship freely and where acts of terror are met with unwavering unity. The work of peacebuilding is not easy, but it is essential. And it starts with each of us choosing to stand together — today and every day. – Fox News

Defense

The US Army unveiled a new version of its iconic Abrams tank at the Detroit Auto Show in what it hopes will be an example of a new, more streamlined way of producing major new weapons systems. – Bloomberg

The U.S. Marine Corps and Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s (JGSDF) bilateral exercise “Iron Fist 26” will see approximately 1,550 troops carry out amphibious landings, air assaults and more across Japan’s southwest region next month. -⁠USNI News

USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) took to sea for the first time in nearly three years after the installation of large missile tubes capable of fielding hypersonic strike weapons, USNI News has learned. Zumwalt left Jan. 15 from HII Ingalls Shipbuilding Pascagoula, Miss., and returned the next day, according to photos posted by ship spotters on social media. – ⁠USNI News

 The US government has approved a multibillion-dollar sale of new Boeing P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft for Singapore as well as a small batch of air-launched Mk 54 lightweight torpedoes. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said on 20 January that the US Department of State approved a Singapore government request to procure four P-8A aircraft and eight Mk 54 MOD 0 lightweight torpedoes all up rounds (AURs) under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programe. – ⁠Janes