Fdd's overnight brief

January 22, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Humanitarian supplies are pouring into the Gaza Strip at an unprecedented rate, as foreign governments and aid groups race during a pause in the fighting to bring much needed relief to the beleaguered population. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military leader said he would resign, citing the army’s failure to protect the country on Oct. 7, 2023, the most senior official to leave a position over the worst attack in Israeli history. – Wall Street Journal

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen residents, officials, regional diplomats and security experts who said that, despite Israel’s vow to destroy it, Hamas remains deeply entrenched in Gaza and its hold on power represents a challenge to implementing a permanent ceasefire. – Reuters

Israeli security forces backed by helicopters raided the volatile West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday, killing at least nine Palestinians in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called a “large-scale and significant military operation”. – Reuters

Nearly 900 humanitarian aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the third day of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas, as a senior U.N. official said so far there had been no apparent law-and-order issues. – Reuters

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza reduces the risks to Israel’s public finances and could improve its sovereign credit rating, the major credit rating agencies said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israel spent about 100 billion shekels ($28 billion) on military conflicts in 2024, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, a figure that has sharply pushed up government borrowing and the country’s debt burden. – Reuters

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s reversal of sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on Israeli settler groups and individuals accused of being involved in violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters

Hostages Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher, who were released from Hamas custody on Sunday, reported that they had been held in a U.N. refugee camp at some point during their captivity, according to Israel’s Channel 13. Details were not given as to what camps they were held in, when, or for how long. – Washington Examiner

With the first three Israeli hostages freed in the cease-fire for hostages deal, Fox News Digital has exclusively learned that several terrorists captured by Israeli forces last month confessed that Israeli captives were held at different times at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza. – Fox News

The Berlin Film Festival is set to screen a documentary about an Israeli actor taken hostage by Hamas, organizers said Tuesday, as it looks to move on from a row about alleged antisemitism at last year’s edition. – Agence France-Presse

A senior Hamas official has told Newsweek that the Palestinian movement was surprisingly encouraged by the comments made by President Donald Trump during his inaugural speech and expressed hope he would commit to lasting peace and stability in the Gaza Strip. – Newsweek

Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian said the Gaza Strip was part of the “State of Palestine” in a speech at the United Nations Security Council on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

U.S. President Donald Trump’s new foreign policy team has already begun working on formulating the second phase of the cease-fire in Gaza, which should lead to the release of the rest of the hostages and a permanent cease-fire in the Strip. – Ynet

Air France, the national airline of France, will resume daily flights on the Paris–Ben Gurion route starting this Saturday. The carrier also plans to increase its daily flight frequency in the coming months. – Ynet

The terrorist who stabbed five people in Tel Aviv’s bustling Nachalat Binyamin area on Tuesday night has been identified as Kaddi Abdelaziz, a 29-year-old Moroccan man with a U.S. green card. He arrived in Israel just three days prior to the attack, and raised suspicions at Ben Gurion Airport. – Ynet

Under the terms of the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, the IDF is required to complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon and redeploy along the Israeli side of the Blue Line, the internationally recognized border, by Sunday, January 26. – Ynet

Israel Police on Tuesday filed an indictment against a resident of the Old City of Jerusalem who is in his 20s for threatening to commit an act of terrorism, after he threatened to carry out an attack in a Whatsapp message about it. – Ynet

Yisrael Medad writes: After all, incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz said to CBS that if Hamas reneges on the Gaza hostage-ceasfire deal, the United States will support Israel “in doing what it has to do.” He added that “Hamas will never govern Gaza. That is completely unacceptable.” If those were some of the conditions for the deal, then perhaps Israel, if thwarted in achieving an unconditional surrender in Gaza, can ultimately gain from a neo-conditional surrender. To do better next time, however, will depend on a better military command. The new commander-in-chief that will be appointed and fellow generals must be more committed to a victory, one in the field that permits Israel a victory at the diplomatic table. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Tuesday he did not see Donald Trump’s new administration increasing the risk of an Israel-Iran conflict, addressing an issue the region has feared since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump stripped Secret Service protection on Tuesday from his former national security adviser, John Bolton, who became the target of an alleged Iranian murder plot after he served in the White House. – Reuters

The hostage release and Gaza cease-fire agreement took effect on Sunday, with the Iranian-Shiite axis continuing its rhetoric of boasting and threats. Despite significant setbacks in Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere, “victory speeches” persist in Iran and elsewhere.  – Ynet

Iran’s National Petroleum Products Distribution Company said on Wednesday that there had been an accident at its reservoirs south of Tehran that hold 18,000 tons of oil, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said. – Ynet

Iran’s army is testing combat robots and developing new models, according to a high-ranking army official. – Newsweek

 

Russia & Ukraine

President Trump has handed retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg the job of ending the Ukraine war in a hundred days. Almost no one thinks he can do it—especially the Russians. – Wall Street Journal

Facing growing public pressure to address concerns over military leadership on the front as Ukrainian forces lose ground daily to Russian attacks, Ukraine said it had detained three former commanders that it blamed for the loss of territory last spring. – New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that it was time for Europe to stand strong and remain united as the United States installs a new president skeptical of global alliances and continued aid to Ukraine. – New York Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is seeking a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, said on Tuesday that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed to prevent a new Russian attack after any ceasefire deal. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would likely impose sanctions on Russia if its president, Vladimir Putin, refuses to negotiate about ending the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

With potential talks between Kyiv and the Kremlin the No. 1 topic at Ukraine House, Pinchuk’s role as the corporate bridge to the West has become even more critical. But he’s also got his own future to think of after seeing Russia’s destruction of his country, jeopardizing his assets. – Bloomberg

Only months ago, Kyiv was terrified a second Donald Trump presidency would force Ukraine to capitulate to Vladimir Putin. Today, it’s pinning its hopes on Trump finally ending three years of carnage. – Politico

In one of his first acts as president, Donald Trump froze all foreign aid for 90 days, but Kyiv may dodge the worst of that action, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. – Politico

War appears to have accelerated the spread of multi-resistant pathogens in Ukraine. Clinics treating war injuries have registered a sharp increase of AMR cases. More than 80% of all patients admitted to Feofaniya Hospital have infections caused by microbes which are resistant to antibiotics, according to deputy chief physician Dr Andriy Strokan. – BBC

Ukraine has detained its army’s chief psychiatrist for alleged “illegal enrichment” charges related to earnings of more than $1m (£813,000) accrued since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. – BBC

Forces fighting for Moscow suffered far more casualties in 2024 than they did in the previous year, according to Ukraine’s commander-in-chief who outlined the price Russian troops are paying for President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. – Newsweek

David Shimer writes: In the past few months, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Russia, provided Ukraine with nonpersistent antipersonnel landmines, permitted the cross-border use of American-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems and supplied Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of air-defense missiles. Ukraine has a healthy stockpile of key munitions, while the pressures on Russia’s economy and military are growing. Ukraine can enter a future negotiation with strength and reach an acceptable outcome to this war, but only if the U.S. continues to support the Ukrainian military and apply economic pressure on Russia. Now is the time to finish the job. – Wall Street Journal

Alexandra Prokopenko writes: If Western capitals cannot bank on the imminent collapse of the Russian economy, they must face the reality that Russia will pose an immense challenge for the next year or more. The United States and Europe will need to sustain Ukraine through this critical period, working together to bolster sanctions enforcement and finding ways to manage potential shifts in U.S. policy or fractures within the European Union. Eventually, the cumulative toll of Russia’s war economy will need to be paid. The West should be planning for that contingency now in order to capitalize on the opportunity when economic collapse becomes an urgent, unavoidable reality for Putin. But Ukraine’s backers should not expect that moment to arrive any time soon. – Foreign Affairs

Alexander Kolyandr writes: To pressure Russia, President Trump would need to persuade President Putin that he is ready to hit hard. The existing sanctions provide him with means to target these circumvention practices and Russia’s main clients in India and China. If the price of oil doesn’t rise too high for too long — something any US administration finds hard to tolerate — the new measures provide a blueprint to widen the net and catch more ships and traders […]On the other hand, lenient implementation of the secondary sanctions might be used as a substantial carrot if the US is seeking the Kremlin’s goodwill. True, Russia would prefer not to see the sanctions’ Sword of Damocles hanging over its oil revenue, but a sword is sometimes better left dangling than slicing.   – Center for European Policy Analysis

Marianna Fakhurdinova writes: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has developed a strong framework for cooperation with the capability coalitions. Work is still needed however to avoid duplication of the coalition efforts and NSATU, and how to integrate the two in terms of organizational structure and personnel. Regardless of the Trump administration’s future policy, one thing is absolutely clear — Washington will expect Europe to take on a much greater share of the burden in defending the continent, including the defense of Ukraine. We will be hearing a lot more about these European-led efforts in the coming months (and perhaps years.) – Center for European Policy Analysis

 

Syria

The Kurdish forces guarding Islamic State fighters at a jail in northern Syria say they are opposed to handing the facility to the new Islamist rulers in Damascus as they brace for attacks by the ultra hardline group and monitor its attempts to re-emerge. – Reuters

French investigating magistrates have issued an arrest warrant against ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for suspected complicity in war crimes, notably the launch of a deliberate attack on civilians, a legal source said late on Tuesday. – Reuters

As insurgents raced across Syria in a surprise offensive launched in the country’s northwest late last year, officials from several countries backing either the rebels or Syria’s government met in Qatar on what to do. – Associated Press

Dr. Reza Parchizadeh writes: The fall of Bashar al-Assad has reshaped the regional power dynamics in the Middle East, significantly benefiting Türkiye, Israel, and the United States in distinct but interconnected ways. Türkiye aims to capitalize on a pro-Ankara Syria to regain historically lost territory, emerge as a dominant regional power, and reassert itself as the leader of the Islamic world. Israel seeks to exploit the chaos to neutralize immediate threats, consolidate its territorial ambitions, and increase its strategic depth by planting a permanent thorn in Türkiye’s side in the form of a Kurdish client state. – Arutz Sheva

Gregory Waters writes: When assessing both the current security situation and the conduct of the new security forces, foreign officials would benefit from first differentiating security force behavior across regions, and secondly from distinguishing between violations committed by security forces and those carried out by criminals or locals […]For their part, HTS must understand the importance foreign countries have placed on security and safety, especially for minorities, and the necessity of ensuring local commanders are actually enforcing the more professional guidelines set in Damascus while punishing anyone who engages in criminal activities. – Middle East Institute

Turkey

A Turkish court late on Tuesday ordered far-right Victory Party leader Umit Ozdag be held in custody pending trial on charges of inciting public hatred through social media, prompting widespread condemnation from opposition leaders. – Reuters

Turkish authorities have ramped up investigations and detentions of opposition figures, with three such actions on Monday alone, raising concerns about a widening crackdown on dissent against the government. – Reuters

Turkey could restart trade with Israel “if peace is permanent”, Nail Olpak, head of the Turkish Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK), said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party said it will send a delegation to meet Abdullah Ocalan, head of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), in jail on Wednesday for a second time as part of a political effort to end a decades-long conflict. – Reuters

Lebanon

A senior Hezbollah official in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley region was shot dead Tuesday in what Lebanese media reported was an apparent assassination. – Times of Israel

Mati Gill writes: Hezbollah’s remnants, though weakened, could act as spoilers, and entrenched anti-Israel sentiments within Lebanon may resist normalization. On Israel’s side, skepticism about peace with a long-standing adversary could complicate public and political support. The events of October 7 underscored that lasting peace and true security demand more than walls and military strength – they require bold steps and bridge-building. The deal to release the hostages is a step toward creating that reality. Israel and Lebanon now also face a rare chance to rewrite history. This is an opportunity to realize Rabin’s vision and prove that peace, even with an enemy, is possible. By seizing this moment, they can together chart a new future for the region. – Jerusalem Post

Ehud Yaari and Hanin Ghaddar write: Amid these shifts and the prospect of continued Israeli strikes on its military positions, Hezbollah will probably refocus most of its attention on domestic matters in the near term to maintain some of its political influence. So far, however, it has proven incapable of fulfilling any of the promises that its leader, Naim Qassem, has made about reconstruction and political sway, nor has it been able to exert any visible influence over the nascent political process. Accordingly, Salam and Aoun should feel emboldened to continue containing the group, paving the way to deeper change in 2026. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

A plane carrying Spanish hostage Gilbert Navarro, who was kidnapped in North Africa on Jan. 17, was expected to land in Algeria’s Boufarik air base, Algerian state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Operations at a Red Sea port in Yemen used for aid imports have fallen to about a quarter of its capacity, a UN official said on Tuesday, adding it was not certain that a Gaza ceasefire would end attacks between the Iran-backed Houthis and Israel. – Reuters

Qatar’s Prime Minister said in Davos on Tuesday he hoped the Palestinian Authority would return to play a governing role in Gaza once the war with Israel comes to an end. – Reuters

The vice president of Yemen’s U.N.-recognised government on Tuesday welcomed Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president, saying it was a decisive turning point to curb the Iran-backed Houthis, who he said threaten regional stability and maritime security. – Reuters

The new stretch of the Suez Canal near Egypt’s Little Bitter Lake will be operational in the first quarter of this year, the chairman of the canal authority Osama Rabie said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iraq’s parliament passed three divisive laws Tuesday, including amendments to the country’s personal status law that opponents say would in effect legalize child marriage. – Associated Press

Amit Yarom writes: Israel must craft a clear vision – one that offers hope not only for Israelis but also for the Palestinians, recognizing that ongoing despair and extremism will only deepen the crisis. Saudi Arabia must leverage its influence to drive profound reforms within the PA, ensuring future Gaza is demilitarized, rehabilitated, and stable. The US must remain a determined mediator, bridging gaps and providing guarantees to enable bold compromises. The choice is clear: Remain trapped in an endless cycle of conflict or act today to build a better tomorrow. This is not about politics – it is about vision. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s state media on Wednesday reported U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration but without any commentary on his presidency, but did accuse the United States of committing atrocities during the 1950-53 Korean War. – Reuters

South Korea’s birthrate is set to show a rise in 2024 for the first time in nine years, following a rebound in marriages that were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. – Reuters

South Korea’s impeached president denied Tuesday that he ordered the military to drag lawmakers out of the National Assembly to prevent them from voting to reject his martial law decree last month, as he appeared for the first time before the Constitutional Court that will determine his fate. – Associated Press

The South Korean government will reduce subsidies for biomass energy after rising domestic and international criticism of its link to deforestation. Environmental activists generally applauded the reforms but criticized loopholes and slow timelines for phasing out the subsidies. – Associated Press

China

In a video call on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised to work hand-in-hand, in what could prove to be the first indication of a new phase in their deepening confrontation with Washington. – Wall Street Journal

After a surge in crimes targeting Chinese citizens, Beijing initially moved in 2023 to combat the Myanmar fraud compounds, resulting in the arrest of tens of thousands of Chinese nationals suspected of involvement in the illicit business. That reflected China’s approach to treat those trafficked primarily as suspects rather than victims, according to groups that fight human trafficking. – Reuters

China’s relations are starting to improve with Japan, India and other countries that former U.S. President Joe Biden courted, just as Donald Trump brings his more unilateralist approach back to the White House. – Associated Press

South Asia

Pakistan has agreed terms for a $1 billion loan with two Middle Eastern banks at a 6%-7% interest rate, its Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters on Tuesday, as the South Asian country looks for more financing. – Reuters

India’s government is evaluating options ranging from a trade deal, cutting tariffs and importing more goods from the US if US President Donald Trump follows through with threatened trade action. – Bloomberg

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s biggest ally has said he will wait for the US prosecution to conclude its probe in the bribery charges against billionaire Gautam Adani’s before taking any action. – Bloomberg

India is considering a $450 million deal to sell Russian-backed supersonic cruise missiles to Indonesia as the Southeast Asian country looks to bolster defenses, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

India has been granted observer status on the four-nation Eurodrone program which is edging towards completion. – Defense News

Asia

Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto is considering pardons for prisoners linked to armed organisations in the restive easternmost province of Papua, including separatists, providing they renounce violence and abandon secessionist agendas, a senior minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The United States, Australia, India and Japan recommitted to working together on Tuesday, after the first meeting of the China-focused “Quad” grouping’s top diplomats since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. – Reuters

Japan will continue to strengthen its defence capabilities given the security situation in East Asia, Japan’s foreign minister told his U.S. counterpart in a meeting on Tuesday, his spokesperson said. – Reuters

United Nations human rights experts have urged Thailand not to send 48 Uyghurs in its custody back to China, warning they are at risk of torture, ill-treatment and “irreparable harm” if returned. – Reuters

Tonga’s King Tupou VI has appointed ‘Aisake Eke as prime minister, a month after he was selected by lawmakers to be the Pacific Island nation’s next leader, a Tonga government statement said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs said on Wednesday that undersea cables to the Matsu Islands, which lie close to the coast of China, were disconnected due to “natural deterioration” and back-up communications were activated.- Reuters

Singapore’s prime minister has formed a committee to review electoral boundaries, the poll body said on Wednesday, an indicator that a general election in the city-state could come soon. – Reuters

Officials from China, Myanmar, Thailand reached a consensus on eradicating telecommunication fraud centres in Myanmar on Tuesday during a meeting in the Chinese city of Kunming, said China’s national broadcaster. – Reuters

Australian detectives are investigating whether foreign actors are paying criminals to commit antisemitic attacks in the country, police said on Wednesday. – Associated Press

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said that competition between the US and China will grow, although the risk of a “full decoupling” is unlikely at this stage. – Bloomberg

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said he and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed to bring their countries’ ties to new heights in their first meeting. – Bloomberg

Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said his country’s top leader recently chatted with Donald Trump and is ready to deal with the new US president and his administration. – Bloomberg

The Philippines has arrested three people on suspicion of espionage after they were caught with intelligence related to military installations and other sensitive sites, allegedly collected from a vehicle. – Newsweek

Karishma Vaswani writes: Making Taiwan an integral part of a democratically aligned supply chain would further embed it in the fabric of international business. It’s already an important focal point in the Indo-Pacific, where an estimated $5.5 trillion in imports and exports flow through the region. Integrating Taiwan in this intricate web could help earn more global attention, which will be vital to keeping it safe. – Bloomberg

Alex Ryvchin writes: The children of Holocaust survivors have told me they’re glad their parents aren’t alive to see what Australia has become. Members of my community have beefed up the security around their homes, putting bars on windows, fearing an attack. Some are nervous about wearing a Star of David necklace in public. Others wonder if they should take down the mezuzahs from their front doors. […] For 15 months, I have shrugged off questions about my own safety. But this is harder to do now that my old home has been attacked. Difficult conversations will be taking place in many Jewish homes in the coming months, including my own. We know how antisemitism can escalate. It won’t end with arson. The question before Australians now is: Will someone get killed before it does? – The Free Press

Europe

Five candidates’ names will appear on the ballot for a presidential election in Belarus on Sunday, but for the past 31 years there has only been one winner. In power since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko is assured of a new five-year term in a vote that the exiled opposition describes as a sham. – Reuters

Russia is posing an existential threat to the European Union’s security and to only way to address that is to increase spending on defence, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday, adding that the EU had for too long offered Russia alternatives. – Reuters

Italian Prime Minister Meloni was the sole European leader at Trump’s presidential inauguration on Monday, an honour that came barely two weeks after she flew to Florida to meet him at his Mar-a-Lago retreat, and propelled her into pole position to become Washington’s new go-to ally in Europe. – Reuters

A protest leader in Martinique went on trial on Tuesday accused of trespassing on state property during cost-of-living demonstrations in a case his supporters say is another heavy-handed attempt to stop dissent in France’s overseas territories. – Reuters

Portugal plans to increase purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and Nigeria as it aims to end already dwindling supplies from Russia, Environment Minister Maria da Graca Carvalho said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Italy has released a senior member of Libya’s judicial police who it had arrested on a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) over war crimes accusations, an interior ministry source said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The European Court of Human Rights on Tuesday rejected an appeal by Romania’s far-right presidential candidate to overturn a domestic court decision to annul a December presidential election. – Reuters

Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of playing games with the West by drip-feeding releases of political prisoners ahead of an election on Sunday in which he is set to extend his 31-year rule. – Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday he does not support freedom of speech when it is used for extreme-right views, a day after a hand gesture by U.S. billionaire Elon Musk caused uproar during Donald Trump’s inauguration festivities. – Reuters

The leader of Germany’s conservative CDU, the party’s candidate to run for chancellor, said on Tuesday that the nation should focus on efforts to reach existing NATO defence spending targets before discussing any further increases. – Reuters

Spanish Labour Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Diaz said on Tuesday she will withdraw from Elon Musk’s social media platform X due in part to the billionaire’s behaviour during events linked to President Donald Trump’s inauguration. – Reuters

Slovakia’s opposition accused Prime Minister Robert Fico on Tuesday of laying the groundwork to take the country out of the European Union, but dropped its no-confidence motion to dismiss him and his leftist-nationalist government. – Reuters

Veteran politician Micheál Martin is set to become Ireland’s prime minister for a second time on Wednesday when lawmakers formally approve him as head of a coalition government. – Associated Press

As expected, day two of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland witnessed strong responses to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, with European leaders stating in no uncertain terms that they will hold fort and remain a part of the global climate pact. – Associated Press

U.S. President Donald Trump has apparently confused Spain for a member of the BRICS bloc of developing economies, causing some head-scratching and jitters over possible tariffs in Madrid. – Associated Press

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris Wednesday as the embattled leaders try to chart a new course for Europe with US President Donald Trump threatening to upend transatlantic relations. – Bloomberg

The British government has warned the country’s burgeoning private intelligence and security industry to stop doing work for hostile states like Russia, China and Iran. – Politico

 Germany is calling on EU countries to take a tougher stance on hybrid threats coming from Russia — including by expanding the bloc’s sanctions regime and limiting access to Europe by Moscow’s diplomatic missions. – Politico

Marc Champion writes: Europe remains a wealthy continent with high educational and other standards. But in its weakened state, it has few strong defenses against a determined assault by Trump 2.0, should he decide to use the threats of military withdrawal, a trade war or both to leverage gains. Europe’s leaders know this. It’s why they have rushed to curry favor with Trump. It’s also why the European Commission suddenly announced a “review” of its plans to enforce AI and data privacy laws on US tech companies. – Bloomberg

Marcus Solarz Hendriks writes: The United Kingdom’s mismanagement of the Chagos Islands deal projects insecurity and weakness. It projects the image of a state that cannot judiciously manage strategic risk and can be co-opted by dubious moral appeals. And by conceding to misapplications of global rules, it does not strengthen them but rather weaken their legal and moral scaffolding.The British government has done well to engineer a last-minute off-ramp. The strategic interests of the United Kingdom, the United States, and their partners are best served if it is taken. – War on the Rocks

Africa

Ghana President John Dramani Mahama on Tuesday appointed a former national security chief as envoy to a new alliance formed by Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, signaling his administration’s intention to mend ties with the three military-led nations. – Reuters

The M23 rebel group in Democratic Republic of Congo has seized the eastern town of Minova, a main supply route for the provincial capital Goma, a local governor and a rebel leader said on Tuesday as the army reported fighting on all fronts. – Reuters

A joint force of 5,000 troops from military-led neighbours Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali will soon deploy in their troubled central Sahel region, Niger’s defence chief said on state television. – Reuters

Four Moroccan truck drivers who were kidnapped in West Africa over the weekend were released in Niger. – Associated Press

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his country will use its presidency of the Group of 20 nations to foster global solidarity and cooperation, tackle the excessive debt burden of developing nations, step up the fight against climate change and promote “green industrialization.” – Bloomberg

The Americas

Milei’s accomplishments have turned him into a star among an ascendant global right—from President Trump to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Known here as “El Loco”—the Madman—Milei has become especially close with Elon Musk during a more than yearlong bromance as the two men laud each other’s achievements and attack progressive ideals.- Wall Street Journal

Panama has alerted the United Nations – in a letter seen by Reuters on Tuesday – to U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks during his inauguration speech, when he vowed that the United States would take back the Panama Canal. – Reuters

At least 20 Colombian fighters from rival rebel factions were killed in weekend clashes over control of a strategic jungle area for drug trafficking, military sources and the human rights ombudsman office reported on Monday. – Reuters

The Colombian border village of Tres Bocas has become a ghost town as residents flee to neighboring Venezuela to escape a new wave of violence in Colombia’s Catatumbo region that has left at least 80 people dead and displaced thousands. – Associated Press

Puerto Rico senators grilled the island’s newly designated natural resources chief on Tuesday after critics rebuked his recent decision to shelve a probe into allegations of illegal construction in a protected area. – Associated Press

Brazil’s government is preparing a campaign to fight back against the spread of fake news regarding a popular instant payment system that has damaged President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s reputation. – Bloomberg

North America

President Trump is using the threat of imposing stiff tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico as soon as next week to pressure the two nations to start renegotiating a continental trade deal, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned President Trump that his renewed pledge to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports, starting as early as Feb. 1, risks derailing his effort to usher in a “golden age” for America, given the close trading ties between the neighboring countries. – Wall Street Journal

On Monday night, President Donald Trump called for the State Department to label Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations, opens new tab,” a move that increases the reach of U.S. law enforcement over the criminal groups but risks complicating international business, restricting asylum claims, and straining relations with Mexico, analysts say. – Reuters

Mexico’s president emphasized on Tuesday that she will defend her nation’s sovereignty and independence but also pursue dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump, a day after he began his new term with a flurry of orders, including measures to curb immigration. – Reuters

United States

The blitz of executive orders and memos from President Trump left business leaders—some still in the tuxedos they wore to White House inaugural galas—scrambling to make sense of sweeping changes to tax, immigration, trade and energy policies. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump signaled early plans to use tariffs on imported goods as a key weapon in relations with the United States’ three top trading partners, saying the first new taxes on foreign products could be announced Feb. 1. – Washington Post

Secretary of State Marco Rubio walked into the State Department on Tuesday for the first time in his new job, taking the reins of the main agency carrying out U.S. foreign policy at a time of violent global crises and as other nations begin engaging with President Trump. – New York Times

Hundreds of Donald Trump supporters who had been serving prison sentences for participating in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol were freed on Tuesday, after the new president pardoned more than 1,500 people, including some who assaulted police officers. – Reuters

Harvard University will provide additional protections for Jewish students under a settlement announced on Tuesday that resolves two lawsuits accusing the Ivy League school of becoming a hotbed of rampant antisemitism. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump “sees great promise in the United Nations if it focuses on its founding mission of international peace and security,” his nominee to be ambassador told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday. – Reuters

Editorial: It’s not unreasonable to expect that January 2029 will be a different story. The president will be able to pardon freely on the grounds that his predecessor cleared the way. The Supreme Court ruled in 1915 that people may turn down pardons, because they carry “an imputation of guilt and acceptance of a confession of it.” We applaud anyone who chooses to turn down a pardon offered by Biden or Trump. It would be a powerful display of confidence that the justice system still works, and that the rule of law abides. – Washington Post

Alexander Palmer and Daniel Byman write: Given the record of deadly attacks in Europe and the near misses in the United States, plots enabled by foreign terrorists remain a threat worth sustained attention. The current U.S. approach to monitoring foreign terrorists has repeatedly justified its continuation in the next administration. U.S. authorities seem to disrupt plots at a higher rate when plotters are in contact with foreign terrorists, and the United States has warned a variety of governments of ISKP plots targeting their citizens despite the lack of an official presence in Afghanistan. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cybersecurity

Google employees have worked to provide Israel’s military with access to the company’s latest artificial intelligence technology from the early weeks of the Israel-Gaza war, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to restore access to TikTok has created a thicket of new legal questions for the short-video platform, along with new tensions between the White House, members of Congress who want the platform banned, and tech companies caught in the middle. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was open to billionaire Elon Musk buying social media app TikTok if the Tesla CEO wanted to do so. – Reuters

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new leadership said on Tuesday it had created a task force to develop a regulatory framework for crypto assets, in the first major move by President Donald Trump’s new administration to overhaul crypto policy. – Reuters

Indonesia’s antitrust agency on Tuesday ordered Google to pay fines of around 202 billion rupiah ($12.4 million) for unfair business practices related to its payment system services for Google Play Store, its software distribution platform. – Reuters

OpenAI is teaming up with Oracle and Softbank to build data centres equipped to power artificial intelligence (AI), with plans to invest $100bn “immediately”. – BBC

Researchers at cybersecurity firm Sophos are tracking multiple clusters of hacking activity leveraging Microsoft 365 instances, Microsoft Teams and email bombing tactics to deliver ransomware. – Cyberscoop

A data breach of the widely used educational software company PowerSchool potentially exposed special education and disciplinary records for millions of students attending Toronto public schools going back to 2017, the school district informed parents on Monday. – The Record

Pekoske was appointed by Trump in 2017 and had his 5-year tenure renewed in 2022 by former President Joe Biden. He became a critical part of the Biden administration’s efforts to address cybersecurity failures following the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline in 2021. – The Record

A major Russian telecommunications provider, Rostelecom, said that it is investigating a suspected cyberattack on one of its contractors after hackers claimed to have leaked the company’s data. – The Record

Adam Segal writes: Sanctions and indictments against individual hackers and small technology firms that support cyber-operations have not worked. The Trump administration should instead consider sanctioning—with its Asian and European partners that also suffer from Chinese cyber-operations—the Chinese officials who authorize the cyber-operations that steal intellectual property, install malware on critical infrastructure for destructive attacks, indiscriminately expose widely used systems to exploitation, or otherwise cross the line of political military espionage. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

Pentagon officials are planning options for using federal troops to secure the U.S.-Mexico border against drug traffickers, human smugglers and migrants, a potentially major shift in military priorities ordered by President Trump, officials said Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump’s new administration is likely to do away with the White House’s National Space Council, a cabinet policy panel that lobbyists at Elon Musk’s SpaceX have been pushing to axe, according to three people familiar with the plans. – Reuters

The Department of Homeland Security is firing all the members of its various advisory committees, according to a letter seen by Reuters, a move which two people familiar with the matter said would disrupt the agency’s efforts to investigate a sweeping hack of U.S. telecom companies blamed on Beijing. – Reuters