Fdd's overnight brief

January 21, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

After Israeli troops stood down when a cease-fire came into effect in the Gaza Strip, Hamas began sending thousands of its forces onto the streets to establish control. – Wall Street Journal

There was relief among the crowd watching a massive screen in central Tel Aviv as trucks holding hostages inched their way through cheering Gazans. But Israelis said they also felt anguish at the thought that this is set to drag on for weeks—and anger at Hamas for the spectacle surrounding the release. – Wall Street Journal

As a fragile cease-fire begins in Gaza, Israel hasn’t fulfilled its top war aim: to destroy Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is promising his frustrated right-wing supporters that he will deliver the promised “total victory” later. – Wall Street Journal

Over a grueling 15 months trapped in Gaza City, facing violence, hunger and separation from her family, Samah Haddad said she often struggled to imagine an end to a war that at times felt limitless. – Wall Street Journal

A day after the release of three Israelis held by Hamas sent shock waves of joy across a traumatized nation, Jonathan Dekel-Chen, the father of an Israeli American hostage, began the next chapter of his mission: attending Donald Trump’s inauguration in an effort to ensure that his administration does not leave the remaining hostages behind. – Washington Post

Hours after the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas took effect, a senior Hamas official said that the militant group was ready to start a dialogue with the United States, making a rare overture to a country that Hamas has long excoriated for supporting Israel. – New York Times

Hamas said on Monday it would next release hostages held in Gaza on Saturday, after an official with the Palestinian militant group had said they would be released a day later than expected. – Reuters

The European Union is in talks to revive a civilian mission to monitor the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt at Rafah following the announcement of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. – Reuters

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said 915 aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip on Monday, the second day of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas after 15 months of war. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday rescinded sanctions imposed by the former Biden administration on far-right Israeli settler groups and individuals accused of being involved in violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, the new White House website said. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to lift the Biden administration’s freeze on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel in his first days in office, Walla News reported on Monday, citing an interview with the Israeli envoy to Washington. – Reuters

France will keep fighting to obtain the release of the two French-Israeli nationals held by Hamas, foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot told BFM TV on Monday. – Reuters

Two far-right Israeli ministers publicly opposed a Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas on Sunday in another sign of widening cracks in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. – Reuters

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem congratulated Palestinians on Saturday over the Gaza ceasefire deal, saying in a speech that it proved the “persistence of resistance” against Israel. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extended congratulations and his “warmest wishes” to President Donald Trump, who was just inaugurated for his second term on Monday evening. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF fired warning shots on Hamas forces operating in the vicinity of its new defensive ceasefire lines during the late morning, the Jerusalem Post learned on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

As part of the cease-fire that is set to start on Sunday at 8:30 a.m., the IDF on Saturday night published maps and rules for where Palestinians can and cannot move around in this transition period at the start of Phase 1 of the ceasefire. – Jerusalem Post

Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas on Monday issued an official statement congratulating US President Donald Trump on the occasion of his inauguration. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: Israel knows, as it has for decades, that we are dealing with a group of people who glorify death and destruction, who turn light into darkness, and who revel in the wretchedness and gloom that comes with war and terror. The first three hostages returning home is a start. But we know there are nearly a hundred more still to be brought back. We must stay positive despite the likely efforts of Hamas to sabotage the deal in some way. We must believe we can bring all of our citizens home. Then, for those alive and those we have lost, we will be able to raise a glass “to life.” – Jerusalem Post

Shahar Azani writes: Israel’s Ministry of Health’s report about the hostages who returned in the first deal, after 52 days in captivity, included details of horrible sexual assault against children, charring of the flesh with hot irons, and torture of the elderly. What will Romi, Emily, and Doron share about their much longer time at the hands of sheer evil? We dare not imagine, but we know we shall overcome. Israel’s power is life, and life shall overcome all. – Fox News

Daniel M Rosen writes: As Israel concludes its physical battles, the responsibility continues for those who want to defend the Jewish community. […]The flame of effort must not be dimmed but intensified in preparation for the next event that will surely occur. Our enemies continue the work when it is “quiet,” and so must we. The Jewish community was caught off guard once and cannot ever let itself be caught off guard again. – Jerusalem Post

Neomi Neumann writes: Finally, it is important to encourage the PA to implement profound changes in a number of areas—security, political, economic, and social—to strengthen its status and foster stability in the West Bank, and to prevent Fatah from being weakened as Hamas grows stronger after the hostage deal. In the longer term, it is important to bolster the PA so that it can serve as an alternative to Hamas in Gaza—which is not the optimal scenario, but better than all the other options currently available. – Washington Institute

Iran

An unidentified gunman killed two high-profile judges outside Iran’s Supreme Court on Saturday in what the authorities are calling a terrorist attack, according to state-run media. – New York Times

After Iran elected a more moderate president last year, Cecilia Sala, an Italian journalist, thought something may have changed in the country, which she had been covering from afar. – New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian deepened military ties between their countries on Friday by signing a 20-year strategic partnership that is likely to worry the West. – Reuters

Iran unveiled an underground naval missile base at an undisclosed Gulf location on Saturday, state TV said, two days before the start of Donald Trump’s second term as president. – Reuters

Elon Musk played no role in negotiations between Italy and Iran for the release of a journalist who was held in a Tehran prison, Italy’s foreign minister said on Friday, dismissing a media report that the U.S. billionaire had been involved. – Reuters

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday he believed their two countries could finalise agreements on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Iran. – Reuters

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday called for the “decimation” of the Iranian nuclear program in the wake of a new ceasefire in Gaza. – The Hill

Iran said Monday it hoped the incoming US administration under Donald Trump would adopt a “realistic” approach and show “respect” for the interests of countries in the region. – Times of Israel

A senior European diplomat said Israel has already decided it will attack Iran’s nuclear sites, implying such an attack was not imminent but also not in the too distant future, Al Arabiya reported over the weekend. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

The Ukrainian special-forces team closed in on the North Korean lying alone and injured in a forest in Russia’s Kursk region. Spotting the Ukrainians, the young soldier brandished a hand grenade in a desperate threat. – Wall Street Journal

The death of an Indian man working for the Russian army in Ukraine has brought renewed focus to the Kremlin’s use of foreign nationals on the front lines — from North Koreans to Cubans — and revived a thorny issue in the otherwise thriving relationship between New Delhi and Moscow. – Washington Post

Russian forces launched air attacks on Kyiv and other locations in Ukraine early Saturday morning, killing at least three in the capital, officials said — the latest deadly assault on Ukraine aimed at weakening the country during the cold winter months. – Washington Post

A Russian missile attack killed at least four people and partially destroyed an educational facility in the city of Kryvyi Rih in southern-central Ukraine on Friday, officials said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday congratulated U.S. president Donald Trump on his inauguration and hailed the opportunity to achieve a just peace in his country which has been battling a Russian invasion for almost three years. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on taking office hours before Trump’s inauguration in Washington and said he was open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration on Ukraine and nuclear arms. – Reuters

The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday Ukraine and Britain “had no room” for cooperation in the Sea of Azov, commenting on a new 100-year partnership agreement between Kyiv and London the two countries’ leaders announced on Thursday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy discussed energy security with Slovakia’s opposition leader in Kyiv on Friday, amid a row with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico who has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine. – Reuters

Russian forces took control of two more settlements in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Saturday, the latest in a series of gains it has reported in its steady advance westward. – Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, but as he prepares to take office, peace seems as elusive as ever. Moscow and Kyiv are seeking battlefield gains to strengthen their negotiating positions ahead of any prospective talks to end the 3-year-old war. – Associated Press

North Korean soldiers are sacrificing themselves as targets for Ukrainian drones after replacing Russians on the front in the war against Ukraine. That’s disclosed by a South Korean specialist on North Korea, Shim Jae Hoon, in reporting on the suffering of the 12,000 or so North Koreans fighting Russia’s war in the unfamiliar terrain of the Kursk region bordering central Ukraine.  – New York Sun

Marc Champion writes: Having more well-equipped soldiers to shore up Ukraine’s defensive lines and retake the battlefield initiative will be critical to persuading Putin to negotiate a genuine settlement. Doing so is essential, if a European nation the size of France is to emerge from this war not as an angry, defeated wasteland on Europe’s borders, but as one with enough hope and security to rebuild. In the long term, that would be as much to Russia’s benefit as to that of Europe and the US. But by the time that becomes clear to all sides in this conflict, both Putin and Trump will be long gone. – Bloomberg

Afghanistan

Nearly 1,660 Afghans cleared by the U.S. government to resettle in the U.S., including family members of active-duty U.S. military personnel, are having their flights canceled under President Donald Trump’s order suspending U.S. refugee programs, a U.S. official and a leading refugee resettlement advocate said on Monday. – Reuters

The Taliban’s acting deputy foreign minister called on his senior leadership to open schools for Afghan girls, among the strongest public rebukes of a policy that has contributed to the international isolation of its rulers. – Reuters

An Afghan prisoner in American custody was freed in exchange for U.S. citizens, Afghanistan’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Syria

The mother of Austin Tice, an American journalist abducted in Syria, said on Monday that she had met with Syria’s new leader in Damascus and expressed hope that “a page will be turned” in the more than decade-long search for her son. – New York Times

The European Union is considering a step-by-step suspension of multiple economic sanctions targeting Syria as it seeks to support the country’s transition, while retaining some leverage, according to two internal documents seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa congratulated U.S. President Donald Trump on his inauguration in a statement on Monday, saying he is looking forward to improving relations between the two countries. – Reuters

Negotiators are zeroing in on a potential deal to resolve one of the most explosive questions looming over Syria’s future: the fate of Kurdish forces that the U.S. considers key allies against Islamic State but neighbouring Turkey regards as a national security threat. – Reuters

Syria’s new defence minister said on Sunday it would not be right for U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters based in the country’s northeast to retain their own bloc within the broader integrated Syrian armed forces. – Reuters

International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan held discussions on Friday with Syrian authorities on how the war crimes tribunal could help in their efforts to prosecute crimes allegedly committed in the country, his office said. – Reuters

Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent write: Preventing a resurgence by the Islamic State remains the top priority, but in order to do so, the United States should pursue policies that ensure continuity of Islamic State detentions. For that to occur, the Kurdish forces in Syria need to be able to remain focused on safeguarding the prisons and displaced persons encampments, and can only do so through American-brokered cessation of hostilities agreements, as well as facilitating engagement of all parties to alleviate Turkish concerns and promote a unified Syria free from terrorist threats. – War on the Rocks

David Romano writes: Washington could mediate a Syrian transition that allows for decentralization in the new Syria and thereby provides hope for all Syrians. If, instead, we allow Ankara and its proxies to demand a highly centralized and authoritarian new Syrian regime, then the Syrian civil war will not have truly ended. The Kurds will fight against any attempt to exclude and silence them like before, as will other non-Sunni Arab groups. – National Interest

Turkey

Turkey has emerged as one of the most influential power brokers in Syria after rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad last month, ending his family’s brutal five-decade rule. – Reuters

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico discussed the potential for securing Russian gas through Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who pledged Ankara’s help in finding a solution with Moscow. – Bloomberg

Mehmet Kucuk writes: Turkey’s irredentist policies, from its actions in Cyprus to its growing involvement in Syria, highlight a policy of territorial expansion and ethnic dominance. This hostility extends not only toward the Kurdish people within its borders but also to Kurds living beyond them. […] Only by standing together can we ensure a future where justice, freedom, and equality prevail over oppression and expansionism. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

Lebanon’s new president Joseph Aoun stressed to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday the urgency of an Israeli military withdrawal as stipulated by a ceasefire deal that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war in November. – Reuters

Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam said on Friday the formation of a new government would not be delayed, indicating a very positive atmosphere in discussions over its composition. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron called on Israel on Friday to accelerate its troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon, as a deadline nears for the pullout under the terms of a ceasefire that ended the war with Hezbollah last year. – Reuters

Yemen

Companies transporting their products around the world are not ready to return to the Red Sea trade route in the wake of a Gaza ceasefire deal because of uncertainty over whether Yemen’s Houthis will continue to attack shipping, industry executives said. – Reuters

The U.S. on Friday imposed sanctions on a Yemen-based financial institution that Washington accused of financially supporting the Houthis, as President Joe Biden’s administration sought to further pressure the militant group before Biden leaves office. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthi rebels signaled Monday they now will limit their attacks in the Red Sea corridor to only Israeli-affiliated ships after a ceasefire began in the Gaza Strip, but warned wider assaults could resume if needed. – Associated Press

A mysterious airstrip being built on a remote island in Yemen is nearing completion, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show, one of several built in a nation mired in a stalemated war threatening to reignite. – Associated Press

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed an attack on an American aircraft carrier on Sunday and warned of “consequences” for any retaliation during the coming Gaza ceasefire. – Agence France-Presse

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s membership in the BRICS bloc of emerging economies is still being assessed more than a year after the kingdom was invited to join the alliance, according to the country’s minister of economy and planning. – Bloomberg

Shortly after Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun was chosen this month as its next president, giant banners of him and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman were unfurled on a building’s façade in the northern province of Akkar, hailing Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler as the “leader of the Arabs.” – Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s investment mining fund is set to buy a stake in Pakistan’s Reko Diq project, which will be one of the world’s largest copper mines once complete, as the kingdom accelerates its expansion into the sector. – Financial Times

Middle East & North Africa

When Hamas militants led a deadly cross-border raid on Oct. 7, 2023, they triggered a war with Israel that has devastated Gaza. They also set off shock waves that have reshaped the Middle East in unexpected ways. – New York Times

An Australian journalist, who was once jailed for 400 days in Egypt, said he is staging a hunger strike in London to press the British government to help secure the release of jailed Egyptian-British dissident Alaa Abd el-Fattah. – Reuters

Swedish prosecutors have requested the detention of a Swedish man on suspicion of war and terrorism crimes over the killing of a Jordanian air force pilot in Syria a decade ago, they said on Monday. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday named former Dutch Foreign Minister Sigrid Kaag as the new U.N. Middle East envoy, a U.N. spokesperson said. – Reuters

David Makovsky writes: A potential breakthrough with Saudi Arabia and the chastening of Iran might have seemed like a fantasy just months ago, but today both appear within reach. The Israel-Hamas war, especially its last several months, has shaken up the Middle East. This moment presents a real opportunity for the U.S. and Israel to translate crucial battlefield gains into lasting strategic achievements that empower pragmatists over radicals. The first step toward this vision lies in navigating the delicate path of a Gaza ceasefire. – U.S. News & World Report

Korean Peninsula

South Korean authorities arrested President Yoon Suk Yeol early Sunday, days after he was detained by investigators in relation to his botched attempt to impose martial law last month. He has been accused of leading an insurrection and abusing his power. – Washington Post

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is due to attend on Tuesday a Constitutional Court hearing of his impeachment trial where the detained leader may get a chance to argue his case or answer questions over his short-lived bid to impose martial law. – Reuters

South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol refused to be questioned by investigators on Monday under a probe into whether he committed insurrection, as dozens of his supporters faced being charged over a violent rampage on a court building. – Reuters

South Korea’s defence ministry said on Tuesday the denuclearisation of North Korea must continue to be the goal necessary for lasting global peace, after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump had called Pyongyang “a nuclear power.” – Reuters

South Korea’s acting president Choi Sang-mok said on Tuesday he hoped for bilateral relations with Washington to develop more reciprocally under the Trump administration, citing concerns about how U.S. policies might hit Asia’s fourth-largest economy. – Reuters

Thomas Byrne and Joseph Lim write: The South Korea-U.S. business relationship has blossomed into a vibrant two-way investment partnership spanning joint ventures on COVID-19 vaccines and electric vehicle batteries. Trusted and competitive foreign shipbuilders, such as those in South Korea, have also demonstrated their global comparative advantage. It’s time for the U.S. to more deeply tap into its capabilities and move into a new, robust military-industrial cooperation paradigm. – National Interest

China

China dominates the global market for the small, inexpensive drones that have transformed the world’s battlefields—and Beijing hasn’t been shy about keeping the industry under its thumb. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is intensifying a war on corruption that has punished officials in record numbers—with the side effect of leaving many unwilling to act for fear of punishment. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald Trump has told advisers he wants to travel to China after he takes office, according to people familiar with the discussions, seeking to deepen a relationship with Xi Jinping strained by the president-elect’s threat to impose steeper tariffs on Chinese imports. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President-elect Donald Trump vowed to engage closely on major issues in a rare phone call ahead of next week’s inauguration, where Beijing will be represented by its vice president. – Wall Street Journal

It threatened a widespread investigation into American chipmakers. It zeroed in on one American retailer, accusing it of “inappropriate conduct” that could lead to sanctions usually reserved for weapons sellers. And it got ready to slap duties on imports of industrial plastics. – New York Times

Chinese officials and ordinary people are hopeful but on edge as Donald Trump returns to the White House, eager to avoid a repeat of the bruising trade war that drove a wedge between the economic superpowers during his first term. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Beijing is ready to work with Hanoi to build a community with a shared future of strategic significance, China’s official Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday. – Reuters

South Asia

Supporters of Imran Khan, the imprisoned former prime minister, are now pinning their hopes on getting him freed — however fanciful — on the wild card among the three: the incoming administration of Donald J. Trump. – New York Times 

Pakistan launched its first home-made observation satellite on Friday from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in northern China, Pakistan’s space agency said. – Reuters

Seven Indian privately-held startups have been chosen for a first-of-its-kind India-U.S. space and defence collaboration programme, potentially unlocking a lucrative and strategic market for Indian firms, an investor who co-launched the project told Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

The Myanmar military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) signed a formal agreement for a ceasefire that began on Saturday, China’s foreign ministry said, halting fighting near the border of both countries. – Reuters

Pakistan’s largest airport, funded and built in the country’s restive southwest by Beijing, has become operational, officials said Monday. Gwadar airport is in the province of Balochistan, which has for decades been the scene of an insurgency by separatists demanding autonomy or outright independence. – Associated Press

Pakistani security forces launched an operation targeting militants in a restive northwestern district bordering Afghanistan, officials said on Monday, following a surge in attacks and sectarian strife. It is the first large-scale operation in the area in recent years. – Associated Press

The US has spoken with Indian leaders across the political spectrum to get them to review the South Asian nation’s strict regulations for makers of nuclear reactors, the outgoing US ambassador to India said. – Bloomberg

Mihir Sharma writes: Pakistan’s economy and politics have spent decades in twinned cycles of disappointment and failure. Half-hearted reform brings the economy to the brink of crisis; the military picks favorites and discards them. Sharif has been granted an unknowable amount of time to break his country out of that cycle. He shouldn’t waste it. – Bloomberg

Asia

Taiwan is entering a period of political upheaval that could hinder its combat readiness amid intensifying military intimidation from China — just as Donald Trump, who has previously questioned why the United States should defend the island, is inaugurated. – Washington Post

A childcare centre in Sydney was set alight early morning on Tuesday and antisemitic graffiti was sprayed on the wall, authorities said, the latest in a spate of attacks in Australia targeting the Jewish community. – Reuters

Malaysia’s attorney-general’s chambers has sought a gag order to ban public discussion of former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s judicial review claim that a document exists allowing him to serve his remaining prison sentence under house arrest, according to state news agency Bernama. – Reuters

The United States will not abandon its allies in the Pacific and the incoming Trump administration should renew its commitment to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said in Taipei on Friday. – Reuters

The head of Taiwan’s delegation to next week’s inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president said on Saturday he was going there to extend the island’s “highest blessings” to the United States. – Reuters

Philippine law enforcers have arrested a Chinese national on suspicion of espionage, recovering in his possession equipment authorities believe could be used for spying on military facilities. – Reuters

Indonesia is looking into ways to repatriate an al Qaeda-linked Guantanamo Bay detainee accused of involvement in some of the country’s deadliest attacks, including the 2002 bombings on the resort island of Bali, a senior minister told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

The Philippines and the United States carried out joint maritime exercises for a fifth time in the South China Sea, Manila’s armed forces said on Sunday, in a move that would likely irk China. – Reuters

The regional bloc ASEAN and China should make headway on a protracted code of conduct for the South China Sea by tackling thorny “milestone issues”, including its scope and if it can be legally binding, the Philippines’ top diplomat said on Saturday. – Reuters

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong met her Indian and Japanese counterparts in Washington and said the invitation for Quad foreign ministers to attend President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration showed an “iron-clad commitment” to close cooperation in the Indo Pacific region. – Reuters

Foreign ministers of the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN at a weekend retreat upheld their decision to bar Myanmar’s ruling generals from their summits and limit the country’s participation to a non-political level, said Malaysia who currently holds the chairmanship on Monday. – Reuters

Bruce Klingner writes: But Ishiba’s disastrous snap election decision has created uncertainty whether Tokyo can deliver on its promises to double the nation’s defense spending, develop counter-strike capabilities against the growing North Korean nuclear and missile threats, and assume a larger security role in the Indo–Pacific, including Taiwan contingencies. Coupled with the ramifications of South Korean President Yoon’s impeachment, the United States is now allied with two floundering ships of state even as Washington debates setting its own course in the Indo–Pacific. Prospects for success are dimmer than just a few short months ago. – Heritage Foundation

Europe

Pope Francis on Sunday called plans by President-elect Donald Trump for the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants a “disgrace,” signaling the return of the rocky relationship that defined the pontiff’s ties with the first Trump White House. – Washington Post

Ruptures of undersea cables that have rattled European security officials in recent months were likely the result of maritime accidents rather than Russian sabotage, according to several U.S. and European intelligence officials. – Washington Post

French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Monday that the billions of euros of taxpayer money spent on Europe’s military budgets should not be used to buy only American weapons, pushing for more investment in home-grown defence industries. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said the United States needs to control Greenland to ensure international security. – Reuters

The British government on Monday rejected an attempt to trigger the “Stormont Brake”, angering Northern Ireland unionists who sought to use the post-Brexit emergency mechanism to stop the application of a piece of EU law in the British-run region. – Reuters

Sanctions imposed by the outgoing U.S. administration on Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s cabinet chief Antal Rogan, who is in charge of the secret service, have only strengthened his position, Orban told state radio on Friday. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States will trigger a new right-wing surge in Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Monday, launching what he called an offensive to “occupy” Brussels. – Reuters

Germany’s ambassador to the United States has warned that the incoming Trump administration will rob U.S. law enforcement and the media of their independence and hand big tech companies “co-governing power”, according to a confidential document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

A Russian disinformation campaign is seeking to boost the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), undermine mainstream German parties and sow worries about the economy ahead of the country’s Feb. 23 election, a think-tank has found. – Reuters

U.S. officials will visit Cyprus soon to discuss upgrading military infrastructure, Cyprus’ president said on Saturday, days after a landmark decision by Washington to bolster military cooperation with the island. – Reuters

Hundreds of Swedish troops arrived in Latvia on Saturday to join a Canadian-led multinational brigade along NATO’s eastern flank, a mission Sweden is calling its most significant operation so far as a member of the Western defense alliance. – Associated Press

Poland’s six-month presidency of the European Union is firmly focused on security. As Europe’s biggest land war in decades rages, fewer places highlight the challenges and contradictions of defending the bloc and its values more starkly than the border with Belarus. – Associated Press

Norway is one of the world’s richest countries, but isn’t signing up for U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that NATO members increase their defense budgets to 5 percent of GDP. – Politico

European Commission industry chief Stéphane Séjourné said he agreed Europe needs to invest more in its defense capacities, but argued that it would be impossible to do so if Trump launches a trade war with Europe. – Politico

Croatian Deputy Prime Minister Josip Dabro resigned on Saturday after a video of him shooting a gun out of a moving car surfaced in local media. – Politico

The Moldovan officials reported that the Moscow-friendly leaders of Transnistria had indicated they would accept shipments of gas from the European market to replace lost Russian supplies. The move reverses a decades-long policy by the enclave of relying on the Kremlin — and creates an opportunity for Moldovan authorities to consolidate control over Transnistria. – Politico

Katja Hoyer writes: It would be free to criticize the government’s every move and harness people’s anger. If the next four years continue to frustrate German voters, the AfD’s strategy to stay the radical outlier might well pay off. As the CDU Mayor of Berlin Kai Wegner put it recently: Germany’s mainstream parties may “have exactly one shot left.” – Bloomberg

Africa

A New York federal judge sentenced a former Mozambique finance minister to 8½ years in prison Friday for his role in an international kickback scheme involving $2 billion in fraudulent state-backed loans that left the African country teetering on financial collapse. – Wall Street Journal

A group of soldiers forces a rope into a man’s mouth, then throws him off a bridge and shoots at him in the water. Dozens of young men, all dead, lay shoeless in jumbled piles. A soldier leans over a bound and writhing captive, sawing at his neck with a blade until his screams fall silent. – Washington Post

Brazil’s government announced on Friday Nigeria’s acceptance as a partner country in the multinational bloc of nations known as BRICS. – Reuters

South Sudan police said on Monday that 16 Sudanese nationals were killed in riots last week over the alleged killings of South Sudanese people in Sudan’s El Gezira region. – Reuters

Mauritius Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam has questioned the duration of the lease on a U.S.-British military base, he told a local newspaper, a contentious element of negotiations in which the UK plans to cede control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. – Reuters

The executive board of the International Monetary Fund on Friday approved the second review of Ethiopia’s current financing program, the fund said, paving the way for a disbursement of about $250 million. – Reuters

South Sudan’s police imposed a nationwide curfew from 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Friday after a night of deadly rioting in the capital over the alleged killing of South Sudanese people by the army and allied groups in neighbouring Sudan. – Reuters

Kenya has deployed 217 more police officers to Haiti as part of a multinational force to curb gang violence plaguing the Caribbean nation, Kenya’s interior minister said on Saturday. – Associated Press

Frank Wolf writes: Sen. Brownback and I were together again last April, speaking at the United for Sudan rally in Washington. It has been more than 20 years since our trip to Darfur. When I see the rape, famine and killing, I am haunted by the thought that some of the victims are the women and children we met with on that trip. I strongly urge Congress and the incoming Trump administration to act now for Sudan. – The Hill

Latin America

There was the Hungarian ambassador to Brazil pacing nervously in the embassy. There was Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president — fresh off court orders not to leave the country because of an intensifying criminal investigation — arriving at the gate. There were the embassy staff members hustling to the guest quarters with linens and a coffee maker. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that his administration would likely stop buying oil from Venezuela and was looking “very strongly” at the South American country. – Reuters

Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump on Monday revoked the Biden administration’s last-minute decision to remove Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, the White House said. – Reuters

Bolivia and Chile are in talks to restart gas exports to Argentina amid a surge in demand spurred by a summer heat wave, underscoring the challenge for the government in Buenos Aires as it looks to become energy self-sufficient. – Reuters

Colombian president Gustavo Petro said on Monday that he will declare a state of emergency, following a spate of guerrilla attacks in the country’s northeast that has killed dozens of people and forced thousands to flee their homes. – Associated Press

A Bolivian judge ordered the arrest of Evo Morales on Friday, inflicting another blow to the socialist former president’s ambition to run in this year’s election. The court declared Morales in contempt and also ordered his detention on human trafficking charges, prosecutor Sandra Gutierrez told reporters. – Bloomberg

As dictator Nicolás Maduro consolidates power in Venezuela, the incoming Trump administration faces a critical test: balancing a hardline stance with pragmatic diplomacy amid a crisis threatening regional stability, global oil markets, and millions of lives. – New York Sun

Arturo McFields writes: The incoming U.S. administration has already turned the tide of the status quo with Latin America. It is still too early to say whether China will reduce its influence in the Western Hemisphere, but at least the Trump administration will not make it easy to increase it. America is back. – The Hill

North America

President Trump’s reasons for wanting control of the Panama Canal can be found at either end of the interoceanic waterway. – Wall Street Journal

Eight years after Mexican cement giant Cemex declined to participate in building President Donald Trump’s proposed wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, one of its top executives was in Washington on Sunday with a more conciliatory message. – Wall Street Journal

Chrystia Freeland blew up the career of her top political ally, Justin Trudeau. Now, she is taking on an old friend, the former central banker Mark Carney. – Wall Street Journal

Canada is ready to respond to tariffs from its top trade partner the United States on Monday if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose them, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said on Friday. – Reuters

The European Union and Mexico revived a stalled free trade agreement on Friday, days before the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who has threatened both sides with tariffs. – Reuters

President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday as previously promised but said he was thinking about imposing 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 over illegal immigrants and fentanyl crossing into the U.S. – Reuters

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday saying the United States would designate drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations in a move that could push a militarized agenda for the border and Latin America. – Associated Press

Doug Ford writes: Building Fortress Am-Can won’t happen overnight, but we owe this alliance to every worker worried about their next paycheck and to every family looking to leadership to keep them safe. Let’s restore the pride of products made in the U.S. and in Canada. Let’s be unapologetic as we stand up for American and Canadian workers and fight back against China and other countries that seek to weaken us. Together, let’s usher in this next American and Canadian century. Let’s build Fortress Am-Can. – Wall Street Journal

United States

President Trump signed executive orders to overhaul border and energy policies and end diversity programs across the federal government, unwinding signature Biden administration policies on the first day of his second term. – Wall Street Journal

In the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency, a delicate diplomatic test was underway: David Lin, 68, was boarding a plane home to Texas after spending almost 20 years in a Chinese prison. If all went well, more Americans would follow. – Washington Post

Making his final trip as America’s top diplomat last week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in Paris, his former hometown, to a hero’s welcome. – New York Times

President Trump moved quickly on Monday to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization, a move that public health experts say will undermine the nation’s standing as a global health leader and make it harder to fight the next pandemic. – New York Times

Donald Trump pardoned about 1,500 of his supporters who attacked the U.S. Capitol four years ago as he moved swiftly to impose his will on the U.S. government just hours after reclaiming the presidency on Monday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday directing the United States to again withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement, dealing a blow to worldwide efforts to combat global warming and once again distancing the U.S. from its closest allies. – Associated Press

Editorial: Such declarations should be saved for real emergencies, and Mr. Trump doesn’t need special powers to accomplish his goals on either of these priorities. They enhance the administrative state, rather than limit it as he has promised. Recall how the left wanted Mr. Biden to declare a “climate” emergency. American democracy is said to be under threat these days, but if Monday is a guide perhaps less than many think. Opponents were respectful of the transfer of power, the mood solemn but also joyful for Trump partisans. Trump II is off to a better start than we might have imagined only a few months ago. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: Biden’s own mishandling of classified material as vice president undercut the case against Trump for retaining classified documents at his personal estate at Mar-a-Lago and covering that up. A special counsel assigned to Biden’s case opted not to prosecute him—on the politically damaging grounds that a jury would be loath to convict a forgetful old man. […] As Trump begins his second term, he has a chance to end the cycle of lawfare the Democrats started. He knows better than anyone else that in 2024, at least, lawfare hurt those who waged it much more than their target. A wise man might consider this a strong argument for not repeating the mistake his foes made. – The Free Press

Mathew Rice writes: For my part, it’s not hard to imagine that Mr. Trump’s warning gave even greater pause to Hamas. The Senate’s majority whip, Senator Barrasso, in another interview at the Capitol last week, praised Mr. Trump for his brash negotiating style and his no-holds-barred pressure tactics that could make the 47th president a true peacemaker. “I think that the world is seeing Donald Trump coming into power in the United States and we’re seeing changes around the world to reflect a new strength in America,” the Wyoming senator told me. – New York Sun

Cybersecurity

American TikTok users started downloading Xiaohongshu, which translates as Little Red Book and is known to Americans as RedNote, a little more than a week ago when it looked like TikTok might face a ban in the U.S. Their arrival was greeted by Chinese users and opened an unexpected window for free exchange. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration sanctioned a Chinese company it said was behind the vast cyber intrusions into U.S. telecommunications networks that swept up phone calls of scores of U.S. government officials as well as those of incoming President Donald Trump. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday revoked a 2023 executive order signed by Joe Biden that sought to reduce the risks that artificial intelligence poses to consumers, workers and national security. – Reuters

Poland’s government is up in arms over a U.S. move to limit the export of artificial intelligence chips to the country — something that could impact Warsaw’s AI ambitions just as it seeks to position itself as a dependable transatlantic military ally. – Politico

Suspected Russian state hackers targeted Ukraine’s state registers with “one of the largest cyberattacks” in December, leaving citizens unable to access essential services linked to their digital records. – The Record

A potentially catastrophic ransomware attack on Costa Rica’s largest oil refinery last year was the first real-world test of the U.S. State Department’s new rapid response tool for cybersecurity incidents, according to a top diplomat. – The Record

Editorial: Tech companies such as Apple and Google are subject to stiff penalties if they don’t remove TikTok from their app stores come Jan. 19. But it will be up to the Trump Justice Department to enforce the law. Non-enforcement would send a message that Mr. Trump isn’t serious about national security—or the law. Mr. Trump on Monday will take an oath to be Commander in Chief, not to be Broker in Chief. His duty as President is to enforce the TikTok law, not ignore it in the hope of cutting a deal with China’s dictator. – Wall Street Journal

Catherine Thorbecke writes: The threat of Chinese cyber assaults is nothing new, but it’s now apparent that they’re no longer just targeting intellectual property from companies or data related to political campaigns. Hackers previously revealed their motives when they fell for a so-called “honeypot” trap set up by the FBI, quickly stealing information related to controlling infrastructure systems while ignoring financial and business-related data. – Bloomberg

Defense

The U.S. “will have to out-think” Russia and China to prevent them from using nuclear weapons to resolve a future crisis, the outgoing head of the National Nuclear Security Administration said last week. – USNI News

Just minutes after returning to office Monday, President Donald Trump vowed to reinstate more than 8,000 troops dismissed from military service for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine, promising them back pay that could cost the federal government hundreds of millions of dollars. – Military Times

James Stavridis writes: Finally, the next secretary should look to allies, partners and friends to lessen the Navy’s load in operations, shipbuilding and ship repair. Spending time getting to know his counterparts in Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other democracies would be smart. (Ditto having a strong relationship with the Department of Homeland Security, where the US Coast Guard resides.) When you add up all the democracies, partners and friends, there is a 1,000-ship navy out there. The secretary can be key in putting it together. To the new team in the secretary’s office — as we say in the Navy when there are turbulent seas ahead: “Godspeed and open water.” – Bloomberg