Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

President Trump delivered a dramatic account of the airstrike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, joked that he doesn’t care if construction projects kill all the rattlesnakes and noted his indifference to the budget during a private dinner with deep-pocketed donors Friday night at Mar-a-Lago, according to audio files obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

Iran’s supreme leader used a rare public sermon Friday to rally Iranians and reclaim the official narrative after an unprecedented confrontation with the United States and the downing of a passenger plane, which sparked days of anti-government protests. – Washington Post

President Trump has quickly turned the U.S. drone killing of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani into a boast for the campaign trail, regaling supporters with tales of his role in the operation as he seeks to burnish his commander-in-chief credentials in an election year. – Washington Post

With open hostilities between Iran and the U.S. subsiding for now, the Trump administration is seeking to keep pressure on Iran without pushing the region into a volatile new confrontation, U.S. and regional officials said. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration lodged sanctions against an Iranian military officer the U.S. maintains led units involved in a violent crackdown on protests in which nearly 150 people were killed. – Wall Street Journal

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions mean Afghanistan, which shares a border with Iran, could be the next proxy battleground between Washington and Tehran, a clash that threatens to undermine the Trump administration’s pursuit of a peace deal with the Taliban and eventual drawdown of American troops. – Washington Times 

The latest anti-government demonstrations sweeping Iran arguably pose the most serious challenge to the administration of any in its 40-year history. – BBC

Iran acknowledged on Tuesday that its armed forces fired two Russian anti-aircraft missiles at a Ukrainian jetliner that crashed after taking off from Tehran’s main airport earlier this month, killing all 176 people on board. – Associated Press

Iran said it could quit the global nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if European countries refer it to the U.N. Security Council for scaling back its commitments under its 2015 nuclear pact with world powers, which the United States quit in 2018. – Reuters 

Iran will review its cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog should it face “unjust” measures, Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani said, after EU powers last week triggered a dispute mechanism under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal. – Reuters 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will not attend the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos this week because its organizers had “abruptly changed its agenda”, its foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday. – Reuters 

Iran has asked the U.S. and French authorities for equipment to download information from black boxes on a downed Ukrainian airliner, a request that will add to international frustration at Tehran’s failure to send the recorders abroad for analysis. – Reuters

The new commander of Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force on Monday threatened that there are “freedom-seekers” all over the world who want to avenge the death of his predecessor, Qassem Solemiani, adding that Tehran’s enemies only understand the “language of force.” – Times of Israel

Western attempts to curb Iran’s ballistic missile development will fail, a senior Russian ambassador said amid U.S. warnings that Tehran’s arsenal poses a threat. – Washington Examiner

President Trump used Farsi, the language of Iran, to blast Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for killing his own people. Trump responded to a tweet Khamenei sent out on Friday, the same day that he gave his first public sermon in eight years. The 80-year-old leader tweeted that America was “villainous” and accused the United States of wanting to stab the Iranian people “in the heart.” – Washington Examiner

A slew of influential Iranian artists, television personalities and sports stars have publicly broken with Tehran after the government denied for days that it shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane this month. – NBC

A never-seen-before secret Iranian government document proves the regime was trying to build a nuclear weapon as far back as 2002. – Daily Mail

IDC’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) has identified a bitcoin front for Hamas which has links to Iran in a report exclusively obtained by The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Elana DeLozier writes: The next troubling step Iran could take would be to increase enrichment from 4.5% to 19.75%, which is technically quite close to weapons-grade uranium. If Tehran is able to grow its stockpile as quickly as Rouhani claims, and if it boosts enrichment to 19.75%, this would raise the same concerns that existed prior to the JCPOA about its potentially short breakout time. – Washington Institute 

Suzanne Maloney writes: This time, the unrest has been centered around Iranian universities, and the voices denouncing the Islamic Republic have been those of students and the middle class.[…] What this means is that the Islamic Republic and its 80-year-old supreme leader must now contend with multiple sources of fierce public dissatisfaction at a time when external pressure is severe and leadership transitions—whether through upcoming elections or inevitable succession at the top—loom large. Revolutionary Iran has navigated perilous waters repeatedly over the past four decades, but the currents just became more unpredictable than ever. – The Atlantic

Neville Teller writes: As for this latest round of mass anti-government demonstrations, they must appear to Trump and his supporters to vindicate the “maximum pressure” campaign he launched when he renounced the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. It suggests broad-based discontent with the regime, and a deep-seated desire for economic and political change. How far will Trump go to facilitate just such a change? – Jerusalem Post

Charles Thépaut and Elana DeLozier write: European countries have long warned that U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA would weaken counterproliferation efforts, strengthen Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and fuel regional instability. In their view, those predictions have come true, so it is now time to get serious about negotiations and stop the uncontrolled game of countermeasures. Although the DRM is no magic pill, Iran and the Trump administration need to realize that there are few if any good options left for reaching a negotiated solution. – Washington Institute 

Graeme Wood writes: The Iranian regime knows that many American weapons formerly housed in their scabbards are now drawn, and their security requires a vigilance they have never experienced. But the Iranian people are, for the first time in decades, worried about whether the leaders who have been their captors are not also their protectors, and whether the U.S. would care about their survival, once those leaders have been eliminated. The year 2020 is a year of pessimism for many Americans. Imagine how it looks to an Iranian. – The Atlantic

Syria

Eight years and counting of bloodshed have condemned a generation of Syrian men to their deaths, to prison or to precarious lives as refugees. Now, with most of the country once again under government control, yet ruptured beyond recognition, moving forward is up to the women left behind: part survivors, part mourners, part mop-up crew. – New York Times

United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet called on Friday for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Syria’s opposition-held Idlib province, saying the latest ceasefire attempt had yet again failed to protect civilians. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has a big problem. His currency is in free fall, and there’s little he can do to stop it. Evidencing as much, Assad on Saturday increased the penalty for foreign currency trading. It will now involve years of hard labor. His security services are also escalating their repression of a growing protest movement over the Syrian pound’s collapsing value. Beyond the threats, however, Assad’s hands are tied. That’s because this crisis has four key sources largely outside of his control. – Washington Examiner

Israel

Jordan’s parliament on Sunday approved a draft law to ban imports of Israeli gas to the country just days after they started under a multibillion-dollar deal struck in 2016 which is opposed by much of the population. – Reuters 

Israel’s military announced on Sunday the start of construction of an underground network of sensors along the Lebanese frontier to detect any cross-border tunnel building. – Reuters 

On the eve of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again drew a parallel between the Nazi genocide of Jews and Iran’s nuclear program. – Times of Israel

US President Donald Trump’s special adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner will travel to Israel Wednesday to attend the World Holocaust Forum and likely meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. – Times of Israel

Israel has warned Hamas that it will respond forcefully to any attempt to disrupt this week’s summit of world leaders in Jerusalem, and will not hesitate to strike the terror group in the Gaza Strip in response to such provocations, regardless of the intensified international focus, according to a report Monday. – Times of Israel

The Israeli military fired a shell at a Hamas observation post along the Gaza border Sunday afternoon, apparently in response to the launching of a balloon-borne explosive device from the Strip, Palestinian media reported Sunday. – Times of Israel

The head of Israel’s domestic security agency, the Shin Bet, revealed on Monday that his organization had thwarted 560 terrorist attacks in 2019. The Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot reported that Nadav Argaman made the statement during a ceremony for the Prime Minister’s Award honoring operational and intelligence achievements over the past year. – Algemeiner

Eli Lake writes: For now, the event puts Israel in a precarious position. Israel has negotiated an arrangement with Russia in Syria, where its jets are given permission to bomb Iranian positions when intelligence indicates they are moving advanced weapons to Hezbollah militias close to its borders. At the same time, Israel has an interest in seeing the U.S. campaign against Iran succeed with allies such as Poland. For this commemoration of Auschwitz, Israel chose Russia over America and Poland. That may be a wise short-term bet, but it’s not a decision that is in Israel’s long-term interests. – Bloomberg 

Lebanon

Lebanon is bracing for deepening unrest after weekend riots in the capital suggested the country’s once-peaceful protest movement is entering a dangerous new phase. Rescue services and police said Sunday that more than 400 people were treated for injuries after the worst night of violence since Lebanese took to the streets in October to demand a new government capable of leading the country out of an acute economic and financial crisis. – Washington Post

An American journalist has been detained in Lebanon on suspicion of sending footage of anti-government protests to an Israeli news outlet — a potentially serious crime under Lebanese law — authorities here said Monday. – Washington Post

Lebanon needs to quickly form a new government to stop a cycle of collapse and worsening economic and security conditions, caretaker prime minister Saad al-Hariri said on Monday, after a weekend of violent confrontations shook the capital. – Reuters 

Police fired volleys of tear gas and rubber bullets in Lebanon’s capital Saturday to disperse thousands of protesters amid some of the worst rioting since demonstrations against the country’s ruling elite erupted three months ago. More than 150 people were injured.-  Associated Press

Libya

When top American and European officials gather in Berlin for a one-day summit on Sunday, they will try to persuade Libya’s warring sides — and their main international backers — to reach a cease-fire, respect a U.N. arms embargo and pave the way to a political resolution. – Washington Post

Western and Arab powers signed a wide-ranging agreement on Sunday to respect a U.N. arms embargo and stop providing military support to Libya’s warring factions. But the gathering failed to persuade the rival sides to agree to a lasting cease-fire, as many had hoped. – Washington Post

Forces loyal to Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar blocked oil exports from the war-ravaged country’s main ports Saturday, raising the stakes on the eve of an international summit aimed at bringing peace to the North African nation. – Agence France-Presse

Libya will face a “catastrophic situation” unless foreign powers put pressure on eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar to lift a blockade of oilfields that has cut output to almost zero, the country’s internationally recognised premier said on Monday. – Reuters 

World powers and other countries with interests in Libya’s long-running civil war agreed Sunday to respect a much-violated arms embargo, hold off on military support to the warring parties and push them to reach a full cease-fire, German and U.N. leaders said. – Associated Press

Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut write: If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. […]The Berlin conference is a critical opportunity to at least pause Libya’s war. If Washington misses it, there may not be another one until hundreds more are killed and thousands more displaced. – Washington Institute 

Guney Yildiz writes: Russia and Turkey have established their influence in Europe’s backyard by being willing to commit military assets. This weekend’s summit in Berlin represents an attempt by Europe and its close allies to respond using their diplomatic strength. A crucial indicator will be whether Europe manages to put in place an embargo on anyone sending more weapons to Libya. The outcome will echo far beyond Tripoli. – Middle East Institute 

Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s new foreign minister is a former defence commander with little diplomatic experience, spotlighting leader Kim Jong Un’s reliance on party and military loyalists at a sensitive time amid stalled U.S. talks, analysts in Seoul said on Monday. – Reuters 

South Korea’s military said on Tuesday it plans to expand the deployment of an anti-piracy unit now operating off the coast of Africa to the area around the Strait of Hormuz, after the United States pressed for help to guard oil tankers. – Reuters 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Monday that South Korea was its “most important neighbour” and that the two shared basic values, taking a conciliatory tone towards the country that has been locked in a bitter row with Tokyo for over a year. – Reuters 

South Asia

The Taliban has presented the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan with a proposal to reduce violence and restart long-stalled peace talks, according to Pakistani and Taliban officials, as negotiators met in Doha, Qatar, for what the Taliban said was expected to be “several days” of informal talks. – Washington Post

China’s President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar and made a push to rev up big infrastructure projects under his Belt and Road initiative, seeking to cement Beijing’s role as the country’s closest international partner while Western governments hold back over human-rights violations. – Wall Street Journal

A Myanmar-appointed panel concluded Monday that some soldiers likely committed war crimes against its Rohingya Muslim community but the military was not guilty of genocide, findings swiftly condemned by rights groups. – Agence France-Presse

A German court convicted a Sri Lankan man Monday of accessory to murder in the 2005 killing of the South Asian nation’s foreign minister for providing his assassins with crucial information. – Associated Press

Russia

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia submitted constitutional amendments on Monday that empower a previously toothless advisory council as a powerful policy arbiter, setting up what could be a future role for himself as Russia’s long-term paramount leader. – New York Times 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday there would be no normalisation of the two countries’ relations until Moscow ends its “destabilising activity” that threatens security. – Reuters 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss a likely pardon for Naama Issachar, who is in a Moscow prison, the Kremlin said on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Monday warned Iran not to take any “reckless steps” to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Sputnik News reported. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: It’s outrageous that Russia mounted a full-scale offensive on American democracy in 2016; it’s outrageous that Russia, by all assessments, plans to mount another next time around; it’s outrageous that President Trump won’t speak out against this; and, as Mr. Van Hollen said on the Senate floor, “It would be equally outrageous for us — knowing that is Russia’s intent in 2020 — to sit here and not do anything.” – Washington Post

Ian Bremmer writes: We still don’t know what Putin’s final play is. He may not know himself, and he has plenty of options available to him—he could return as Prime Minister, stay on as head of his United Russia party, or become the head of that newly empowered State Council. […] Whatever the final position he holds will be, the moves this week are all about equalizing power across various branches of Russia’s political power; in so doing, Putin ensures that he will remain the primary political operator in the country past 2024 in whatever position he holds. – TIME

Africa

Islamist militants attacked a facility housing several aid groups in northeast Nigeria at the weekend in what the United Nations warned on Monday is an escalation in violence specifically targeting aid workers. – Reuters 

Iran’s Quds Force attempted to set up terror cells in Central Africa to strike Western, Israeli and Saudi targets, UN reporters have heard. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will call for deeper investment ties between Britain and Africa at a summit for leaders of 21 African countries on Monday that comes days before his country will leave the European Union. – Reuters 

U.N. experts say most rebel groups and all of Sudan’s neighbors except Libya support the peace process in Darfur but local security incidents in that troubled western region have increased, ranging from rapes to clashes between farmers and herders. – Associated Press

Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s plan to draw down U.S. forces in Africa is facing increased pushback on Capitol Hill. The top Democrat and Republican on the House Armed Services Committee have joined numerous lawmakers calling on Esper to stop a planned reduction of the 6,000 to 7,000 troops fighting militant terrorist groups on the continent and instead keep the forces in an effort to better counter Russian and Chinese aggression. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

Japan’s prime minister said Monday that his country will form a space defense unit to protect itself from potential threats as rivals develop missiles and other technology and the new unit will work closely with its American counterpart recently launched by President Donald Trump. – Associated Press

Attempted cyberattacks against North Dakota state government nearly tripled last year, according to the Grand Forks Herald. Shawn Riley, North Dakota’s chief information officer and head of the information technology department, said there were more than 15 million cyberattacks against the state’s government per month in 2019, a 300 percent increase since 2018. – The Hill

Estonian and U.S. specialists are setting up a new project aimed at easing the transfer of cyberthreat information between the two nations. – Fifth Domain 

Brian Finch writes: Americans have become fixated on the possibility of Iran launching deadly attacks in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision to kill Quds force leader Qassem Soleimani. Such fears are grounded in reality, as Iran has a long track record of lashing out after being struck by the American military. – The Hill

Long War

The Norwegian prime minister lost her parliamentary majority Monday after the right-wing Progress Party withdrew its ministers from the government coalition. The right-wing protest move came in response to the controversial repatriation of a suspected Islamic State member and her children from a Syrian camp. – Washington Post

Britain will introduce tougher jail sentences for convicted terrorists and will end early release as part of a series of measures to strengthen its response to terrorism, the government said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will appear in a Guantanamo Bay courtroom this week, more than 18 years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks he is alleged to have masterminded and a year before he will finally face a jury. – Washington Examiner

Kosovo prosecutors on Monday filed terrorism charges against an Albanian woman who allegedly joined a terror group in Syria. […]They went to neighboring Skopje, North Macedonia, and then to Turkey where they crossed the Syrian border to join the Islamic State group, authorities said. – Associated Press

The new leader of Islamic State has been confirmed as Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-Salbi, according to officials from two intelligence services. He is one of the terror group’s founding members and has led the enslavement of Iraq’s Yazidi minority and has overseen operations around the globe. – The Guardian