Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran sanctioned President Trump and nine other U.S. officials, in a parting shot against an outgoing administration that has pummeled the country and its top officials with sanctions. – Wall Street Journal

An author who has presented himself as a foreign relations expert and political scientist was really a paid mouthpiece for the Iranian government and has been charged with violating the law requiring foreign agents to register with the U.S. government, federal prosecutors said Tuesday. – Washington Post

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani urged U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday to return to a 2015 nuclear deal and lift crippling sanctions on the Islamic Republic. – Reuters

Iran watchers are wary that President-elect Joe Biden may dive head-first into rejoining the Iran nuclear deal and squander the leverage created by his predecessor’s tough policies that kept Iran’s regional aggression in check in recent years. – Washington Examiner

President-elect Joe Biden’s pick to lead the State Department said the U.S. is still a “long way” from securing a long-term deal with Tehran that improves the original Iran nuclear agreement but insisted that the country’s ability to develop weapons of mass destruction be put “back in the box.” – Bloomberg

Iranian army commandos and paratroopers started exercises near the mouth of the Gulf on Tuesday, the last full day of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. – Reuters

President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, said on Tuesday that when it comes to Iran policy, it is vitally important that the incoming administration would “engage on the takeoff, not the landing, with our allies and with our partners in the region to include Israel and to include the Gulf countries.” Blinken addressed a question from Senator Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) as a part of his Senate confirmation hearing. – Reuters

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday hailed the departure of “tyrant” US counterpart Donald Trump, who is due to leave office later in the day making way for US President-elect Joe Biden. – Agence France-Presse 

Texas Senator Ted Cruz blasted the incoming Biden administration, warning that its policies vis-a-vis Iran and the Iran nuclear deal could pose an existential threat to the State of Israel. – Arutz Sheva

Eli Lake writes: This is the most interesting aspect of President-elect Joe Biden’s choice to lead the CIA, William Burns. As one of the most respected diplomats of his generation (every living secretary of state recorded a message of congratulations for him at his retirement ceremony in 2014), Burns is well positioned to be the first member of the Foreign Service to lead the CIA. This will be particularly important when it comes to Iran. Biden has said he would rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran if the Iranians came back into compliance with its limitations on uranium enrichment. Burns is quite well suited for the kind of quiet diplomacy that would be necessary to restart the Iran talks. – Bloomberg

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Whether Biden’s team could pull off getting concessions from Iran after already starting the process to return to the deal will remain an open question, and no Biden officials have made clear that they would seek to extend the nuclear limits beyond 2030, maybe the most crucial issue for Israel and moderate Sunni states. […]Some, like Blinken, are seen as closer to Israel, and might push for using a gradual sanctions-lifting process to sneak in some concessions from Iran – while his main deputy Wendy Sherman, incoming environmental czar John Kerry and others whose names are on the 2015 deal, might be more likely to push for returning even if there are fewer concessions. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent much of his long career casting Israel’s Arab minority as a potential fifth column led by terrorist sympathizers, is now openly courting their support as he seeks reelection in the country’s fourth vote in less than two years. – Associated Press 

The Middle East has navigated another tense year without the outbreak of a major conflict. But tensions remain, many of them surrounding Israel, which contends with four serious simultaneous border conflicts. – Newsweek 

US President Donald Trump issued a pardon on Wednesday to Aviem Sella, an Israeli Air Force colonet, who was indicted by US federal grand jury in March 1987 on three counts of espionage for recruiting Jonathan Pollard to collect US military secrets for the Israeli government, according to the statement from the US press secretary. – Jerusalem Post

Lahav Harkov writes: But there is one issue that will likely come up very soon, and that is Iran. Netanyahu hasn’t even waited for Biden’s inauguration to address it. […]The urgency is not only because Iran’s nuclear ambitions are an issue that is always foremost on Netanyahu’s mind, as being the biggest external threat to Israel, but because Biden himself has said he would like the US to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the world powers’ nuclear agreement with Iran is called. – Jerusalem Post

Gulf States

Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s arrival in the White House may signal the start of a less congenial American relationship with Saudi Arabia, but the kingdom could point to recent progress on a number of issues that have caused longstanding friction with the United States. – New York Times

Qatar is urging Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region to seek dialogue with Iran and says it is willing to act as a mediator after mending its own rift with rival neighbors. – Washington Post

The United States on Tuesday exempted aid groups, the United Nations, the Red Cross and the export of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices from its designation of Yemen’s Houthi movement as a foreign terrorist organization. – Reuters

Y. Yehoshua writes: The summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), held on January 5, 2021 in the Saudi city of Al-Ula, announced a reconciliation among the Gulf countries and the start of a new era in the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, known as the Arab Quartet, ended their economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar that lasted more than three years.[…] To date, the understandings that led to the Gulf reconciliation have not been disclosed. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Alberto M. Fernandez writes: The recent reconciliation among feuding Gulf states is potentially a positive, hopeful step. Whether engineered by self-interest, last-gasp Trump administration diplomacy, or fear of a new Democratic administration in Washington, it was an effort to repair a painful and costly episode in regional history.[…]But the actual steps of restoring air and land transport (by the anti-Qatar bloc) and the freezing of some international lawsuits (by Qatar) were more tangible. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Middle East & North Africa

Thanks to deadlock in its post-revolutionary parliamentary system, Tunisia has torn through new governments at a rate of one per year, and three in just the last 12 months. Political parties dominated by wealthy businessmen shuffle and reshuffle power — occasionally coming to actual blows in Parliament — while making little headway on economic reforms. As faith in politics has dwindled, so has voter turnout. – New York Times 

A fresh generation of Tunisian youth is protesting economic woes, social inequality, political corruption and other problems, driven by the unfulfilled expectations of a revolution that toppled their dictator a decade ago and ignited revolts across the Arab world. – Washington Post 

Iran blocked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from joining as observers, lashing out at the former’s military record, while Turkey blocked Cyprus in a trend that marks a significant departure from normal U.N. protocol and might set a precedent for other bodies that operate on a consensus basis. – Reuters

The Middle East and its neighbors shouldn’t expect outside powers to defuse their conflicts, but should settle their disputes among themselves, Cyprus’s Foreign Minister Nicos Christodoulides said Tuesday on the eve of Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president. – Bloomberg

A shipment of 100 armored patrol vehicles sailed from the U.K. on Tuesday as a donation from the British government to the Lebanese Armed Forces to secure the northern and eastern borders. – Defense News

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Kurds in Syria have played a key role in defeating ISIS and working closely with the US-led anti-ISIS Coalition over the last five years. However, they suffered setbacks because of Turkish-backed extremists, Turkish invasions, US policy infighting, and their own inability to come up with a way to reconcile different political movements. Now with a new US administration taking shape there is a push for Kurdish groups to hold a national conference and work with each other and other Syrian opposition groups.  – Jerusalem Post

China

On his last full day in office, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that China had committed “genocide” and “crimes against humanity” through a campaign of internment, forced labor and forced sterilization of predominantly Muslim Uighurs in the Xinjiang region. – Washington Post

The United States should take an “aggressive stance” toward the threat posed by the aggressive and assertive China that it faces today, Avril Haines, President-elect Joe Biden’s choice for the top U.S. intelligence job, said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s de facto central bank has accused State Street Global Advisors of creating “market uncertainties” with the sudden reversal of its decision to stop investing in Chinese companies on the US sanctions list via Hong Kong’s largest exchange traded fund. – Financial Times

Josh Rogin writes: The Trump administration’s handling of the Chinese government’s genocidal policies in Xinjiang was not perfect — indeed, its response was often undermined by the president himself. But the U.S. government has done more to call out and punish these crimes than any other country or multilateral body on earth, by far. By making the determination and then leaving, the Trump team is putting the Biden administration in a tough position. But that doesn’t mean they are wrong. – Washington Post

Michael R. Pompeo writes: The Chinese Communist Party, like other authoritarian regimes, has never cherished human life. That’s clear from the well-known horrors the party inflicted on the Chinese people during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, the Tiananmen Square massacre and the decades of repression of Tibetans and Falun Gong practitioners. Yet the free world has become dangerously inured to this bloody history. So long as we remain silent, party elites will continue to commit human-rights abuses against the people of China with impunity. We cannot allow this cycle of evil to continue. – Wall Street Journal

Austin Ramzy writes: The global response to the repression in Xinjiang has been relatively muted, an indication of China’s global clout. Over the past year, the United States has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials, companies and government bodies operating in Xinjiang. The genocide declaration is the sharpest response thus far. Last year, a Canadian parliamentary subcommittee reached the same conclusion. The declaration by Mr. Pompeo could lead to further penalties by the United States, but those decisions will now be in the hands of the Biden administration. – New York Times

Joseph Bosco writes: It was those events and the accompanying strategic ambiguity doctrine that precipitated China’s massive buildup, as Beijing mobilized to exploit the very U.S. “uncertainty” Sullivan and Campbell disparage earlier in their piece. The authors state: “The U.S. strategy of containment was built on the prediction that the Soviet Union would one day crumble under its own weight — that it contained ‘the seeds of its own decay,’ as George Kennan, the diplomat who first laid out the strategy, declared with conviction.” – The Hill 

Scott Kennedy writes: Although the Trump administration has tried to intentionally handcuff its successors, the Biden administration has substantial flexibility to reshape America’s China policy. Systematically working through this complex inheritance is the necessary first step to going beyond mere tinkering and reactive management. The incoming administration will be able to take some steps on its own, others primarily in consultation with allies, and still others as a process of negotiation with Beijing. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Asia

A British prosecutor hired by the Hong Kong government to lead a case against tabloid media magnate Jimmy Lai and several other democracy activists has pulled out after coming under pressure in Britain, the city’s Department of Justice said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, beat Russia to keep its ranking as China’s top crude supplier in 2020, government data showed on Wednesday. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s final day in office has sparked fresh political debate in Australia about whether Scott Morrison allowed himself to get too close to the outgoing US president. But the focus will soon shift to building bridges with the incoming Joe Biden administration. – The Guardian

Europe

French President Emmanuel Macron hoped on Tuesday that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will show a greater military commitment to fight against Islamic extremists in several theaters of conflict and especially in the Middle East. – Associated Press

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says he intends to invite the rival leaders on Cyprus to an informal meeting “as soon as practicable,” but he warns that this meeting must be different and help clarify “the true extent” of their common vision “and outline steps necessary to chart a way forward. – Associated Press

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson narrowly avoided a defeat in Parliament on Tuesday after lawmakers voted against a controversial proposal seeking to bar trade deals with any country deemed by the U.K. High Court to be committing genocide. – Associated Press

The European Union called on incoming U.S. President Joe Biden to form a “new founding pact” with Europe working on issues such as peace, security, prosperity, freedom and human rights. – Reuters

The newly-elected leader of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, Armin Laschet, incorrectly tweeted in 2016 that the Obama administration had backed the militant Islamic State in Syria. Two years earlier, after Russia’s incursion into Crimea, Laschet criticized a wave of “marketable anti-Putin populism” spreading across Germany. – Bloomberg

William Alan Reinsch writes: While many people are saying that 2021 will be the year of China, just as the past four years have been, I think we may well see our relationship with Europe occupying much of the debate space this year. There are compelling reasons for improving it, just as there are compelling obstacles to doing so. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Luke Coffey and Daniel Kochis write: The Arctic is becoming increasingly important for economic and geopolitical reasons. The U.S. has a strong interest in safeguarding economic freedom and national sovereignty in the region. Estonian observer status in the Arctic Council will assist in these efforts, advance transatlantic interests in the Arctic, and help to counterbalance the ideas proffered by another observer nation, China. – Heritage Foundation 

Joshua Tallis writes: Finally, even as Arctic strategies must wrestle with the implications of long-term changes in the region, policymaking would benefit from a renewed focus on nearer-term commitments in order to help prioritize limited resources. Without such reforms, these documents risk generating more heat than light. Through these changes, however, the Biden administration’s new Pentagon arrivals can make the best use of the many policy innovations that service Arctic strategies represent. – War on the Rocks 

North America

After four years of trade clashes, unpredictable foreign policy and insults lobbed at the prime minister by tweet, Canadian officials are optimistic that the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden will mean a return to traditionally close relations between Canada and the United States. – Washington Post

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee to be secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Tuesday that he will work to revitalize damaged American diplomacy and build a united front to counter the challenges posed by Russia, China and Iran. – Reuters

The Trump administration was closing in on agreements with Mauritania and Indonesia to be the next Muslim countries to normalize relations with Israel, but ran out of time before the Republican president’s term ended, two US officials told The Times of Israel this week. – Times of Israel

Ryan C. Berg writes: With Cienfuegos free, a dangerous sense of impunity in the top echelons of the Mexican state has been reaffirmed, while drug cartels continue to grow more potent, gaining ground against a Mexican administration with little interest in developing a deeper domestic security agenda. The Biden administration must find a way to balance the diplomatic relationship with the need to combat corruption and organized crime in Mexico. Combatting impunity is not only critical to US-Mexico bilateral security ties, but also to curtailing the bloodshed and ending Mexico’s perpetual violence. – American Enterprise Institute

Cybersecurity

Suspected Russian hackers targeted the cybersecurity company Malwarebytes Inc. in the course of a sprawling cyber-attack that breached U.S. government agencies and companies. – Bloomberg

The European Union hailed Joe Biden’s inauguration later on Wednesday as U.S. president as a “new dawn” for Europe and the United States, while insisting U.S. technology companies should be regulated to stop the “dark forces” of hate speech online. – Reuters

Alphabet Inc’s Google is investigating a member of its ethical AI team and has locked the corporate account linked to that person after finding that thousands of files were retrieved from its server and shared with external accounts, the company said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: In contrast, ISIS seeks to displace the U.S. government with warped Salafist theological absolutism. As manifested in its theology, propaganda, and action, ISIS offers a binary choice between death and tyranny. While its adherents sometimes engage in terrorist or criminal activity, and deserve reciprocal constraint where they do so, most of QAnon’s followers are delusional but law abiding. – Washington Examiner 

Elisabeth Braw writes: Under pressure from Beijing over Ericsson’s home government’s banning of some Chinese telecoms technologies, he feared for the future of his business. His is not an unusual case. In today’s global trade competition, companies are becoming easy prey for hostile governments. Their home governments and citizens should back them up. – Foreign Policy

Missile Defense

General Atomics (GA), the firm behind the iconic Reaper and Predator drones, modified one of their flying vehicles for an unusual and novel mission: anti-submarine warfare. – The National Interest

The Pentagon could be poised to spend $176 billion over 10 years if it carries out plans informed by the Missile Defense Review published in 2019, which is roughly 40 percent higher than previous budget projections made by the agency that provides budget information to Congress. – Defense News 

When U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office, his national security team will have to work quickly to make calls on a number of key nuclear and missile defense decisions, according to a top outgoing Pentagon official. – Defense News 

Vic Mercado writes: While we are confident we can defend the homeland against today’s missile threats from North Korea, the future threat foretold by Kim Jong Un this month is dynamic and, when you factor in Iran, unpredictable. Launch after launch, test after test, these potential adversaries are learning, adapting and improving their capabilities. Iran is gaining valuable information and learning from its space-launch program, which contributes directly to an effort to develop an ICBM, should it choose to do so. – Defense News