Fdd's overnight brief

January 16, 2025

In The News

Israel

Negotiators for Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to pause their fighting in the Gaza Strip, Arab mediators and the U.S. said Wednesday, opening a pathway to end a 15-month war that laid waste to the enclave, sparked a wider regional war and roiled politics in the West. – Wall Street Journal

The finalizing of the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas owes much to the impending transfer of power from President Biden to President-elect Donald Trump, sparking a pointed debate over who deserves the credit.  – Wall Street Journal

The broad terms of the cease-fire deal that Israel and Hamas finally agreed to Wednesday after a year of fruitless negotiations aren’t substantially different from those that were available to both sides eight months ago. What changed is everything else. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli teams have conducted simulations, recruited actors from the military’s theater group and pored over medical records and Hamas hostage videos to be ready to receive the released hostages—whatever their condition. – Wall Street Journal

Two days before Israel and Hamas reached a long-awaited cease-fire and hostage-release deal, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a rebellious far-right Israeli minister, issued a video statement calling on another far-right coalition partner to join forces and scupper the agreement by quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. – New York Times

The leaders of France and Britain said on Wednesday that the cease-fire deal would come as a relief for the hostages and their families, as well as for the people of Gaza. In separate statements, they also called for the deal to form the basis of a longer-term political settlement. – New York Times

Significant progress was made on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal once the administrations of Joe Biden and Donald Trump began working hand in hand to make the case for urgency, outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew told Reuters. – Reuters

Families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza gathered on Wednesday in the Tel Aviv square where they have held rallies for more than a year, as news trickled out of the agreement struck with Hamas to halt the fighting in Gaza and bring the hostages home. – Reuters

A long-sought Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal emerged at the end of an intense 96 hours of negotiations in Doha brokered by U.S., Egyptian and Qatari diplomats who persuaded Israel and Hamas finally to conclude the agreement. – Reuters

Three Palestinians were killed and scores more injured by an Israeli air strike in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin on Wednesday, the Palestinian Red Crescent said. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department’s obligation to continue probing some Israeli actions in the Gaza War will pass to the incoming administration of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, a department spokesperson told reporters on Wednesday. – Reuters

Two Americans held in Gaza are on the list of hostages to be released in first six-week phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal that was announced Wednesday, a source familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday described a ceasefire deal ending the war in Gaza as “long overdue” and said focus should turn to humanitarian aid and securing a better longer term future in the region. – Reuters

The Palestinian Authority must be the sole governing power in Gaza after the war, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said on Wednesday, as expectations grew that a deal to halt fighting and start returning Israeli hostages was near. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that a “last minute crisis” with Hamas was holding up Israeli approval of a long-awaited agreement to pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip and release dozens of hostages. Israeli airstrikes meanwhile killed dozens of people across the war-ravaged territory. – Associated Press

European leaders welcomed reports of a long-awaited cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas and expressed cautious optimism it could lay the groundwork for a lasting peace — provided all parties honor its terms. – Politico

Thousands of Gazans gathered to celebrate as news spread that a ceasefire deal had been reached between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday night. – Agence France Presse

Senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya praised the October 7 massacre as a major achievement that would be taught to future generations of Palestinians with pride, while touting the ceasefire-hostage deal that was announced shortly before he spoke Wednesday as a “historic moment.” – Times of Israel

Israel and the United States are coordinating an extensive sanctions plan targeting judges and officials of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to the issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. – Ynet

A 21-year-old resident of Geva Binyamin in the West Bank was arrested on charges of severe incitement against the State of Israel, IDF soldiers and security forces. – Ynet

In preparation for the release of Palestinian security prisoners as part of the emerging hostage deal with Hamas, the Israel Prison Service will equip guards with body cameras to ensure transparency and prevent false claims regarding the detainees’ physical condition. – Ynet

Editorial: Israel always had to fear that the Biden Administration would try to force it to stop short of destroying Hamas, which held out hope that Mr. Biden would force Israel into a premature deal […]If Mr. Trump were to go back on his word and seek to stop Israel from ending Hamas rule in Gaza, this deal’s legacy will likely sour as emotions fade. If he stands by Israel, it will be a signal to Iran & Co. that the Biden appeasement is over and American power is beginning its comeback. – Wall Street Journal

Ariel Kahana writes: It’s reasonable to ask why the IDF hasn’t been able to destroy Hamas completely in 15 months. The main reason is that President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeatedly intervened in ways that helped Hamas survive. Israel’s acceptance of the American demand that it fight with one hand tied behind its back was a strategic failure. One strategic failure doesn’t justify another. Many Israelis hoped that Mr. Trump would stop the madness and give Mr. Netanyahu the green light to crush Hamas once and for all. Instead Mr. Trump pushed Mr. Netanyahu to accept a deal with the devil. The Israeli prime minister should never have done it. – Wall Street Journal

Tom Rogan writes: It’s important to note that Israel will retain the means of inflicting devastating costs on Hamas in the future. And because of what Hamas did on Oct. 7, the tolerance of this and future Israeli governments to take aggressive action against the group will sustain. This is something Western governments will have to adjust to. It is also important to note that this deal will free up Israeli military attention toward contingencies related to Iran’s nuclear program. It will also earn Israel at least some additional diplomatic favor in relation to those contingencies. Put simply, Israel has made a necessary deal with the devil. But living to fight another day, Hamas has again learned the immense power of using innocent civilians as priceless political pawns. – Washington Examiner

Robert Satloff writes: In sum, once President Trump returns to the Oval Office, he will have an immediate opportunity to fix a huge obstacle to Arab-Israel peace. The most straightforward route is to cut UNRWA funding and move on to other issues, but that would result in other complications for Washington while doing nothing to eliminate the agency’s pernicious effects on the longer-term pursuit of peace. A much better approach is to leverage U.S. support for other UN agencies to create a practical alternative to UNRWA. Let’s hope he takes it. – Washington Institute

Daniel Byman writes: The cease-fire might not last, or it may only be honored in the breach. If Hamas starts to regain power in parts of Gaza, Israeli leaders may strike to remove it, past promises be damned. They may also break the cease-fire to kill a particularly wanted leader. Hamas, for its part, may conduct attacks on remaining Israeli forces in Gaza or on any international or Palestinian group that tries to displace it. None of this may formally restart the war, but it will hinder aid organizations and efforts to rebuild the Gaza Strip. For Palestinians living in Gaza, a cease-fire is still good news, but conditions will remain grim for many years to come. – Foreign Policy

 

Iran

Mr. Musk helped secure the release of Ms. Sala by reaching out to Iran’s ambassador to the U.N., Amir Saeid Iravani, according to two Iranian officials, one a senior diplomat at the Foreign Ministry, who are both familiar with the terms of the prisoner exchange. – New York Times

The ceasefire in Gaza represents a “great victory” for the Palestinian resistance, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Thursday, warning against any possible breach by Israel. – Reuters

“The Kurds did not acquire drones from Iran – this is all clear Turkish propaganda,” a Kurdish military official stated to The Jerusalem Post in a video call on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Nazanin Afshin-Jam Mackay writes: The ITDC pioneers an innovative blueprint for Iran’s transition, ensuring a peaceful, inclusive, and effective path to democracy. By fostering internal and international trust and adopting a project-based, non-partisan approach, the ITDC can provide a stable foundation for Iran’s future. With careful planning and execution, it has the potential to inspire confidence and contribute to a more democratic and prosperous Iran, benefiting the broader Middle East region and the world. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine said Russian forces had unleashed a “massive” missile attack on the country’s infrastructure on Wednesday, forcing officials to impose emergency power cuts to relieve pressure on the country’s battered grid. – New York Times

The United States on Wednesday imposed hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, seeking to increase pressure on Moscow in the Biden administration’s final days and protect some sanctions previously imposed. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged 25 prisoners of war each after negotiations mediated by the United Arab Emirates, according to statements from both sides. – Reuters

Ukraine downed 34 out of 55 drones launched by Russia in an overnight attack, the Ukrainian air force said on Thursday, with a further 18 failing to reach their targets, something which usually indicates they were jammed by electronic warfare. – Reuters

Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump now concede that the Ukraine war will take months or even longer to resolve, a sharp reality check on his biggest foreign policy promise – to strike a peace deal on his first day in the White House. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine to sign a new 100-year partnership to deepen security ties, the prime minister’s office said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters

A major Russian gunpowder factory in the Tambov region was attacked, a Ukrainian official said on Thursday, without directly claiming responsibility or specifying the consequences of the attack. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled the war that has ravaged his country is more likely to end this year because of US President-elect Donald Trump’s sway over Russia. – Bloomberg

Eitvydas Bajarunas writes: A more assertive policy is crucial to addressing the shadow fleet, particularly in the Baltic Sea, as the region cannot afford to delay […]If implemented, the proposed measures would significantly disrupt shadow fleet operations. Coordinated efforts in the Baltic Sea would enhance security and constrain Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts. Furthermore, increased enforcement would contribute to global policy standardization, fostering greater transparency and accountability in maritime shipping. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Guy Anderson writes: Such a scenario assumes limited change in Russia’s oil receipts. Oil receipts accounted for 25% of state revenues between 2017 and 2019, according to IMF data, and Russian output has been relatively consistent over the five years to 2023 at an average of 11 million barrels per day, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Given the historic relationship between output, the price of oil, and state oil receipts (and assuming relatively constant output), Janes assesses that current federal expenditure would require a price of USD90 per barrel to balance the budget. This level is ahead of the Russian Ministry of Economy’s April 2024 forecast of an average of USD65 per barrel through 2026. – Janes

Syria

The killing of Mr. Abdo underscores the complicated reckoning ahead in Syria, where the wounds remain fresh and anger is close to the surface. Many Syrians want accountability for crimes conducted during the civil war. Others are seeking vengeance. – New York Times

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk called on Wednesday for a Syrian national reconciliation process to ensure justice for crimes committed over the past five decades of iron-fisted rule by the Assad family. – Reuters

Turkey is ready to provide support to the new Syrian administration for the management of Islamic State camps in the country, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday. – Reuters

President Tayyip Erdogan warned on Wednesday that Turkey had the power and ability to “crush” all terrorists in Syria, including Islamic State and Kurdish militants, while urging all countries to “take their hands off” Syria. – Reuters

Syria’s new authorities have detained an Egyptian Islamist militant who fought against Bashar al-Assad’s rule over threats he made to the government in Cairo, a Syrian interior ministry source and an Arab security source told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

Michael O’Hanlon writes: There is no easy way to stabilize a country coming out of dysfunction, dictatorship and civil war. The U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump will have to continue to look for ways, working with regional partners, to incentivize Syria’s new leaders to create inclusive governance that protects individual and minority rights. But those goals are much more important than a quick move to a showy election that would likely, at best, provide more symbol than substance for building the new Syria — and that at worst could actually help rip the nation apart, just as it stands a chance of coming together. – The Hill

Jamie Dettmer writes: The good news is that Syria’s transitional education minister, Nazi al-Qadri, has now promised there will be no restrictions on the rights of girls to learn. And after overrunning Aleppo in late November, HTS went out of its way to reassure the city’s Alawi, Christian and Kurdish communities, allowing houses of worship to function and quickly boosting basic services […]But despite all of that, the group’s jihadist roots and previous governance are still cause for concern. Shar’a, for his part, has said Idlib may not be the model that a future Syria follows, and announced the beginning of a national dialogue. However, he also said elections could be as much as four years away, allowing plenty of time to reshape the country along Islamist lines. – Politico

Salem Alketbi writes: This concern is particularly serious since having a Syrian ruling system with an Islamic background and extreme history might spark strategic shifts in other regional countries. Such a system, no matter how moderate it claims to be, could give Turkey’s Islamists new chances to keep ruling after Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s time ends. This possibility remains true even if the current system declares moderation. – Jerusalem Post

 

Middle East & North Africa

Ties between Paris and Algiers have been complicated for decades, but have taken a turn for the worse since last July when Macron angered Algeria by recognising a plan for autonomy for the Western Sahara region under Moroccan sovereignty. – Reuters

International government bonds issued by Israel, Egypt and Jordan rose on Wednesday after news a ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday demanded that Israel cease its “aggressive actions” toward neighboring Syria, and withdraw its forces or it will cause “unfavorable outcomes for everyone.” – Ynet

Smadar Perry writes: Aoun’s win was greeted with joy in Washington, Paris, the Gulf and most of the Arab world. Saudi Arabia’s funding for rehabilitation of Lebanon was conditioned on Hezbollah being disarmed. This is in line with the new president’s public statement that only the Lebanese army would be allowed to bear arms and engage in fighting. But that declaration must be followed by action and for now, there is no indication that Hezbollah would be willing to comply. – Ynet

Ari Heistein writes: The Houthis may spend the next few months testing out different options. They may continue with their attacks on Israel and maritime traffic in the Red Sea. They might escalate pressure against Saudi Arabia and anti-Houthi forces in Yemen to gauge how firm the pushback is. However, it seems likely that they will face significant resistance on all fronts, forcing them to choose between the best or bad options if they are to maintain the friction necessary to justify their regime. […]Ensuring that the Houthis meet firm resistance to all of their regional adventurism will serve to make the Houthis’ strategic dilemmas even more difficult. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

The arrest of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ends a dayslong standoff with the country’s investigators. But the move to detain him has proved deeply divisive in a country still reckoning with last month’s short-lived declaration of martial law. – Wall Street Journal

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s dramatic detainment Wednesday — following his impeachment and weeks of defiance in the face of insurrection charges he is facing over last month’s botched declaration of martial law — has deepened the nation’s recent political instability. – Washington Post

A man set himself on fire on Wednesday near South Korea’s corruption investigation office, where impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was being interrogated over insurrection allegations, the national fire agency said – Reuters

South Korea’s arrested President Yoon Suk Yeol does not intend to take part in a second day of questioning on Thursday, his lawyer said, further stonewalling a criminal probe into whether he committed insurrection with his martial law bid. – Reuters

South Korea is considering buying more oil and gas from the US to diversify its energy sources and also potentially head off the threat of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. – Bloomberg

China

The Chinese government is stepping up measures to root out potential troublemakers and suppress social discontent, after a spate of mass killings has shaken the country and stirred fears about public safety. – New York Times

China has been working to build ties and influence in Panama for years, part of its broader ambition to expand its footprint in Latin America. The effort has had some successes, but also plenty of setbacks. – New York Times

China will make every effort to rescue Chinese nationals who fell foul of scam operations luring them to countries including Myanmar, the public security ministry said late on Wednesday. – Reuters

Senator Marco Rubio, President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for secretary of state, warned on Wednesday that the U.S. must change course to avoid becoming more reliant on China, as he promised a robust foreign policy focused on American interests. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday that it had added four U.S. companies to its so-called “Unreliable Entity List” for their involvement in arms sales to Taiwan, which China regards as part of its territory. – Reuters

Chinese researchers apply for patents for “submarine cable cutting devices.” Russian security experts boast on state TV that cable cutting  in the Baltic Sea will “freeze” Finland this winter. – New York Sun

Tom Rogan writes: Whether it’s TikTok, the 2014 hack into the Office of Personnel Management, the recent infiltration of U.S. telecommunications records of tens of millions of Americans, or any number of other efforts, China is making vast efforts to spy on Americans to gain information that would allow it to blackmail or support other hostile targeting efforts. China takes advantage of the lethargy with which the U.S. democratic system responds to evolving threats. – Washington Examiner

David Albright and Spencer Faragasso write: As these cases highlight, China has been neither willing to enforce its own trade laws or UN Security Council resolutions in North Korea and to cooperate with foreign prosecutions involving reexport of controlled goods, nor to stop sensitive exports to Russia. This is partially explained as a product of poor awareness among Chinese industries, underdeveloped domestic trade control and sanctions legislation, and a lack of political will in the government to enforce laws that could be detrimental to economic growth. But it also reflects Chinese government hostility to these controls and international sanctions, a hostility that is increasingly aimed against the United States and its allies. – Institute for Science and International Security

Jacob Stokes writes: Instead of beseeching China to step in, efforts from the United States and its allies would be better spent trying to identify and exacerbate natural friction points between North Korea and Russia. North Korea might be offended if its troops suffer high casualties, and it perceives they were used as cannon fodder […]Western attempts to get Beijing to restrain its most pugnacious partners are understandable—they are just unlikely to work. For now, at least, China sees the North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine as a feature, not a bug, of closer authoritarian cooperation with and among Moscow and Pyongyang. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

India said on Wednesday that a panel set up to investigate Washington’s accusations of Indian involvement in a foiled murder plot on U.S. soil against a prominent activist had recommended legal action against an unnamed person. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s Supreme Court acquitted former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in a 2008 corruption case on Wednesday, clearing the way for the ailing leader to fight parliamentary elections in the troubled South Asian country. – Reuters

International power rivalry is playing out in the Indian Ocean region, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Wednesday, adding that a strong naval presence in the key trade route was his country’s biggest priority. – Reuters

India said it has successfully executed the first space docking experiment, becoming only the fourth country in the world to master a critical technology required for other ambitious projects. – Bloomberg

India’s navy on Wednesday simultaneously launched a submarine, destroyer and frigate built at a state-run shipyard, underscoring the importance of protecting the Indian Ocean region through which 95% of the country’s trade moves amid a strong Chinese presence. – Defense News

Asia

Taiwan will dispatch its navy if needed to help the coast guard respond to any suspicious activity near undersea communication cables, Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on Thursday, after a Chinese-linked ship was suspected of damaging one. – Reuters

The head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan said on Thursday he expects continued firm support for the island from Donald Trump’s incoming administration, but a U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement seen as critical for business had only a “modest” chance of happening. – Reuters

Voting began on Thursday to elect a new government in Vanuatu, a month after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific island nation’s capital Port Vila, killing at least 16 people, triggering landslides and damaging several major buildings. – Reuters

China and Sri Lanka agreed on more investment and economic cooperation on Wednesday as China’s President Xi Jinping met recently-elected Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Beijing. – Reuters

Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister of Georgia who now leads one of the country’s main opposition groups, was hospitalised after being severely beaten late on Tuesday, a spokeswoman for his party told Reuters. – Reuters

Russia will facilitate Vietnam’s participation in the BRICS bloc of developing economies as a “partner country,” the countries said in a joint statement on Wednesday after Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s two-day visit to Hanoi. – Associated Press

Europe

President-elect Donald Trump has said the U.S. needs Greenland for national security. Part of the island’s allure are its rare earths, metals and other raw materials. America now mostly relies on China for its supplies of some key materials, and Beijing could wield its access to them as a weapon in a trade war. – Wall Street Journal

Poland’s prime minister appeared on Wednesday to confirm the conclusions of Western intelligence officials who had warned of a Russian plot to blow up cargo aircraft over Western countries. – New York Times

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called the country’s business leaders to a meeting on Thursday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump last week threatened military or economic action such as tariffs to take control of Greenland. – Reuters

Cyprus on Thursday hailed a U.S. memorandum allowing military sales, including arms, to the island as a milestone affirming recognition of the island as a pillar of stability in the east Mediterranean region which has been fraught with conflict. – Reuters

Sweden is preparing to change the constitution to be able to take away the passports of people who obtained citizenship by fraudulent means, or who are a threat to the state, the government said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Swiss Defence Minister Viola Amherd will resign at the end of March, the Swiss Parliament said on Wednesday in a post on X, adding a new member of Switzerland’s cabinet would be elected in the spring session to replace her. – Reuters

A Swiss university is hosting an exhibition about its controversial award of an honorary doctorate to Italian dictator Benito Mussolini, putting the links between his fascist government and Swiss society in the 1930s into the spotlight. – Reuters

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis nominated parliament speaker Constantine Tassoulas from his centre-right New Democracy party for the Greek presidency on Wednesday. – Reuters

Italy summoned Venezuela’s chief diplomat in Rome on Wednesday to protest over a lack of information on the fate of an Italian national arrested in the Latin American country two months ago, the foreign ministry said. – Reuters

The long-term survival prospects of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s minority government have shrunk as he fights to keep the Socialist Party from backing a no-confidence vote on Thursday. – Reuters

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Wednesday she had spoken on the phone with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and told him that it is up to Greenland itself to decide on any independence. – Reuters

The leader of Ireland’s Fianna Fail party Micheal Martin is set to return to the role of prime minister next week, according to a coalition deal agreed with rival Fine Gael and independent lawmakers that was published on Wednesday. – Reuters

Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region expects to receive Russian gas again soon to meet its needs, its leader Vadim Krasnoselsky said on Wednesday, two weeks into crippling power cuts in the Russian-backed enclave. – Reuters

A high-ranking member of the Islamic State militant group in Syria has been charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity in Germany, partly for alleged involvement in the genocide against the Yazidi community, prosecutors said. – Reuters

To the rightist tilt waxing in mainstream European politics there is more going on than Elon Musk’s renewed interest in the affairs of Germany. The endorsement of the AfD party by the world’s richest man may be causing many Germans to cry election meddling, but developments in nearby Austria and also Romania underscore how political climate change in Germany is now a broadly European phenomenon. – New York Sun

Sadanand Dhume writes: The dispute over defining Islamophobia reflects a larger problem: Britain’s inability to tamp down Islamist extremism […]Mr. Vidino believes the U.K. is far too lax in tolerating radical Islamist preachers in mosques and London-based propaganda channels for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Jamaat-e-Islami. “None of this stuff would be allowed in France or Italy,” he says. That’s a shame because Britain was once the world’s leading exporter of Enlightenment values. Under Mr. Starmer, it risks becoming the West’s leading importer of Islamist illiberalism. – Wall Street Journal

Africa

Daniel Chapo of Mozambique’s long-ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as president on Wednesday at a sparsely attended ceremony after months of protests against his disputed election victory. – Reuters

South African police lowered a camera down more than a mile (1.5 km) underground into an illegal gold mine on Thursday to ascertain if any survivors or corpses were still there after a months-long siege by authorities in which at least 78 miners died. – Reuters

A Congolese court has sentenced three Chinese citizens to seven years in prison after they were arrested in possession of gold bars and $400,000 in cash and found guilty of illegal activities linked to the artisanal mining sector. – Reuters

A Kenyan cabinet minister said his son’s abduction during last year’s anti-government protests was carried out by the National Intelligence Service and that his son was released after President William Ruto personally intervened. – Reuters

The US State Department demanded that Rwanda stop using GPS jamming equipment in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where millions of people displaced by conflict are desperate for aid. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Brazil’s leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is heading for a diplomatic dust-up with President-elect Donald Trump over the country’s refusal to give his right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, permission to attend Trump’s inauguration. – Wall Street Journal

As Panama’s president laid a wreath to honor those who died protesting the American occupation 60 years ago, the ceremony attendees were resolute. The commemoration this month came just days after President-elect Donald J. Trump falsely claimed China was controlling the Panama Canal and suggested he could use military force to retake the waterway. – New York Times

Cuba on Wednesday began releasing prisoners jailed following anti-government protests in 2021, making good on a deal agreed with the Biden administration this week. – Reuters

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators on Wednesday called on U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to stop “secret negotiations” with Mexico, Canada and Colombia that they say would weaken investor protections in some U.S. free trade deals during the Biden administration’s final days. – Reuters

Donald Trump’s nominee to be the top US diplomat signaled that the president-elect is likely to reverse President Joe Biden’s decision Tuesday to remove Cuba from a list of state sponsors of terrorism after he takes office next week. – Bloomberg

Editorial: This suffering is a tragedy, but there is no evidence that easing U.S. sanctions will lead to less. Mr. Obama tried this approach with great fanfare, including a cringe-worthy trip to Cuba and photo-ops with Raúl Castro […]Everyone welcomes the release of political prisoners, but they can be rounded up again at the regime’s pleasure. Those arrests will get little American attention. The good news is that the Trump Administration can reverse these Biden decisions with dispatch. We assume it will. – Wall Street Journal

Carl Meacham writes: For Biden, the stakes couldn’t be clearer. In his final days in office, his pivot toward a more pragmatic, strategic policy has helped to create an opening for democratic change in Venezuela. His efforts to impose stronger sanctions, extend humanitarian protections, and recognize opposition leaders have laid the groundwork for Trump. The situation remains fluid, but Biden’s most important legacy may be the credibility he built by proving that U.S. support for Venezuela’s democracy was more than symbolic. – The Hill

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who said this month he would step aside as leader of the country and Liberal Party, said Wednesday he won’t run in the election that must be held this year. – Wall Street Journal

The Canadian government is preparing billions of dollars in retaliatory measures on U.S. exports to Canada if President-elect Donald J. Trump makes good on a threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, setting up a potential showdown between two countries that are each other’s largest trading partners. – New York Times

The accused Mexican kingpin Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada on Wednesday decided to stick with the lawyer defending him from U.S. drug trafficking charges despite a possible conflict of interest. – Reuters

The leader of Canada’s top oil-producing province vowed to fight federal efforts to cut or tax crude exports to the US as a tactic in a trade war with the incoming Trump administration. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: If Canada takes its relations with both the world’s largest democracy and its southern neighbor seriously, any caretaker Liberal government or its likely Conservative successor must immediately assemble two commissions: The first should study Trudeau’s use and misuse of intelligence. If Trudeau politicized intelligence for domestic political reasons, the commission should call him out for politicizing intelligence and then the new prime minister should make an official and unambiguous apology to all Indians. Second, the next Canadian government should establish a blue-ribbon panel to examine militancy and terror financial networks operating within Canadian territory. – American Enterprise Institute

United States

The United States under a second Trump administration will stay committed to core allies such as Israel and Taiwan, pursue a more aggressive strategy to counter China, and take a more “realistic” approach to dealing with Ukraine, humanitarian aid and other global crises if they don’t “advance U.S. interests,” the president-elect’s pick for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, told senators Wednesday. – Washington Post

President Joe Biden capped a half-century political career on Wednesday with a final Oval Office speech as he hopes to seal a legacy overshadowed by Democrats’ failure to stop Donald Trump from returning to the White House. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden warned on Wednesday in his farewell address that an American oligarchy is taking shape among a few tech billionaires who have amassed a “dangerous concentration of power.” – Reuters

Even with Biden aides having played a major role in securing a Gaza ceasefire deal for Hamas’ release of hostages announced on Wednesday, Biden’s Middle East record is likely to be remembered not so much for how conflicts ended on his watch but mainly for how they unfolded, seemingly beyond his ability to contain them, analysts say. – Reuters

Aides to President-elect Donald Trump have asked three senior career diplomats who oversee the U.S. State Department’s workforce and internal coordination to step down from their roles, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter said, in a possible signal of deeper changes ahead for the diplomatic corps. – Reuters

Dan Sullivan writes: Alaska also has a wealth of metals and other minerals, some of which are essential for our national defense, economy and renewable-energy sector […]Buy Greenland? Sure, if the price is right and the Danes are willing to sell. But as Mr. Trump prepares to unleash Alaska’s potential again, it’s worth remembering what the father of the U.S. Air Force, Gen. Billy Mitchell, once said: “I believe . . . whoever controls Alaska controls the world. I think it is the most strategic place in the world.” – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

The Biden administration is exploring ways to keep TikTok accessible in the United States even as a ban is set to take effect on Sunday, NBC News reported late on Wednesday, citing three people familiar with the discussions. – Reuters

The Biden administration added more than two dozen Chinese entities to a U.S. restricted trade list on Wednesday, including Zhipu AI, a developer of large language models, and Sophgo, a company whose TSMC-made chip was illegally incorporated into a Huawei artificial intelligence processor. – Reuters

TikTok, Shein, Xiaomi and three other Chinese companies were named in a privacy complaint filed on Thursday by Austrian advocacy group Noyb which claimed the firms were unlawfully sending European Union user data to China. – Reuters

The European Commission will fully enforce its rules governing social media and other large online platforms and has not delayed any cases against U.S. Big Tech, the EU digital chief said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The chief executive of TikTok plans to attend U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the plans – Reuters

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is considering an executive order that would suspend the enforcement of the TikTok sale-or-ban law for 60 to 90 days, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Disappointment, denial and confusion flooded U.S. TikTok on Wednesday upon hearing the news that Chinese owner ByteDance planned to shut off the app for its 170 million U.S. users by Sunday, seemingly throwing in the towel on efforts to keep the popular video-sharing platform going. – Reuters

The European Commission requested the 27 EU members on Wednesday to conduct a 15-month risk assessment of outbound investments in semiconductor, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies, which could lead to measures to protect EU economic security. – Reuters

The Dutch government on Wednesday said it would expand its export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment from April 1, which chip equipment company ASML said it did not expect to impact its business. – Reuters

TikTok plans to shut U.S. operations of its social media app used by 170 million Americans on Sunday, when a federal ban is set to take effect, barring a last-minute reprieve, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Jen Easterly, the outgoing head of the U.S. government’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said Wednesday she hopes her agency is allowed to continue its election-related work under new leadership despite “contentiousness” around that part of its mission. – Associated Press

Chinese state-sponsored hackers who breached the US Treasury Department got into more than 400 laptop and desktop computers, taking particular interest in the machines of staff and senior leaders focused on sanctions, international affairs and intelligence, according to an agency report reviewed by Bloomberg News. – Bloomberg

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is making one last push before the change in administration for increased information sharing between the public and private sectors, releasing an artificial intelligence-focused playbook Tuesday that aims to foster “a unified approach” to handling AI-related cyber threats. – Cyberscoop

A suspected Ukraine-linked hacker group is targeting Russian scientific and industrial enterprises in a new cyber-espionage campaign, researchers have found. – The Record

Japan, South Korea and the U.S. on Tuesday accused North Korea of orchestrating several of the largest cryptocurrency thefts in 2024, warning the blockchain industry that the rogue state will continue to pose a major threat in the year ahead. – The Record

 

Defense

Britain will give U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s new government the chance to review a deal with Mauritius over the future of a U.S.-British military base in the Indian Ocean, a spokesman for Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. Representative Mike Turner said on Wednesday he will no longer serve as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee after nearly two years. – Reuters

The Central Intelligence Agency must heighten its focus on the threats posed by China and expand the volume of intelligence that officers collect around the world, President-elect Donald Trump’s choice to lead the spy service told a Senate confirmation hearing. – Bloomberg

The first at-sea U.S. platform to field the Pentagon’s hypersonic missile will be ready for testing at the end of the year, according to the program manager. USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) is back in the water after the installation of four missile tubes that will eventually carry the Conventional Prompt Strike weapon, program manager Capt. Clint Lawler said on Wednesday at the Surface Navy Association national symposium. – USNI News

Robert Peters writes: Without question, it would be good if the United States did not have to test nuclear weapons again. But the goal of testing a nuclear weapon is not to undermine arms control agreements or give a green light for further testing by Moscow or Beijing. It would be done in service of a larger, more important goal: successfully deterring a strategic attack on the United States or one of its closest allies by a nuclear-armed adversary. And if an American President deems it necessary to conduct a nuclear explosive test in order to convince an adversary that it cannot escalate its way out of a conflict, the U.S. nuclear enterprise should be ready to respond. – Heritage Foundation