Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The biggest harbinger that things were about to fall apart in Iran didn’t come from the thwarted anger of the country’s opposition or the frustrated hopes of young people hungry for more personal freedom. It came from the collapse of a bank. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump on two occasions Tuesday told Iranians protesting against their government that “help is on its way,” the latest sign the U.S. might soon take action against a regime that mounting evidence shows has killed thousands of demonstrators during a popular revolt. – Wall Street Journal

As street protests and a failing economy continue to put pressure on Iran’s government, its ally China has offered few signs of support. Rather than boost Tehran in its time of need, the partnership that had worried governments in the West and Middle East has instead shown signs of its limited scope and resilience. – Wall Street Journal

Despite Iran’s nationwide protests and years of external pressure, there are as yet no signs of fracture in the Islamic Republic’s security elite that could bring an end to one of the world’s most resilient governments. – Reuters

The U.N. human rights chief said on Tuesday that he was “horrified” by mounting violence by Iran’s security forces against peaceful protesters, with the U.N. citing its own sources as saying that hundreds have been killed so far. – Reuters

Iranian state media has aired at least 97 confessions from protesters, many expressing remorse for their actions, since the protests began on Dec. 28, according to a rights group that is tracking the videos. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says that based on testimony from prior detainees, the confessions often come after psychological or physical torture — and can have serious consequences, including the death penalty. – Associated Press

An oil tanker seized by Iran two years ago was released, with satellite images showing the vessel off the coast of Oman, against a backdrop of mounting US pressure on the Persian Gulf state. – Bloomberg

With phone lines opening back up for calls from inside the Islamic Republic, two sources, including one inside Iran, told CBS News on Tuesday that at least 12,000, and possibly as many as 20,000 people have been killed. – CBS News

An ophthalmologist in Tehran has documented more than 400 eye injuries from gunshots in a single hospital, as overwhelmed medical staff struggle to cope with the toll of an increasingly violent crackdown on nationwide protests by Iranian authorities. – The Guardian

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hit out at the European Union’s parliment ban on Iranian diplomats in a post on X/Twitter on Tuesday, claiming that the Islamic Republic would prepare to respond in kind. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The biggest unknown is what Trump ultimately wants to achieve. This can end in one of two ways: The regime collapses or it holds on. Trump may think, with enough pressure, he could hammer out a durable nuclear deal and avoid fresh chaos that an imploding regime might create. But the prospect of truly resetting the geopolitics of the Middle East and beyond — Russia and China would be hardest hit — is more tantalizing. Whichever goal Trump decides on, easing pressure on the regime at its point of maximum vulnerability would be a mistake. – Washington Post

Editorial: The UN will speak. It has spoken. The speeches will not pull people out of prison. The condemnations will not reopen the Internet. The statements will not stop the bullets. Only decisive leadership can do that. President Trump, treat this as a historic moment because it is one. Stand with the Iranian people in practical ways, with speed, and with a strategy that ends the regime’s ability to murder its citizens and export terror abroad. Azadi (freedom, in Farsi). Make Iran Great Again. – Jerusalem Post

Jason Rezaian writes: Whether that person, whomever it turns out to be, would be better able to provide for the needs of Iranians and ensure a brighter future than the country’s current authoritarian rulers is still anyone’s guess. But the end of economic sanctions, with the advent of a new government, along with support in solving other pressing issues, including massive water shortages, would be an immediate boost. The Trump administration should do what its predecessors failed to do for decades. Stop taking its cues from experts and charlatans in Washington and build bridges to changemakers within Iran. – Washington Post

Bret Stephens writes: Antisemitism is wicked for many reasons, but it’s also wickedly dumb: for fostering a mind-set of lurid conspiracy theories; for seeking scapegoats for national failures rather than taking responsibility; for stigmatizing and suppressing a productive and educated minority. Societies that have expelled or persecuted their Jewish communities, from Spain to Russia to the Arab world, were all destined for long-term decline. The same has been true for modern-day Iran. It needn’t be like that forever. A regime that sought to project on Jews its own malevolence may soon have its long overdue comeuppance. And an Iranian people who reclaim their freedom as individuals can also reclaim their reason as a nation. – New York Times

Clayton Swope writes: More cracks have developed in the regime’s foundations over the last year than at any other point over the decades since the overthrow of the Shah. Like the collapse of the Soviet Union, which came suddenly, partially in response to protests due to economic conditions, there comes a point when one more crack in that foundation is one too many. The regime in Iran may be near that edge, with just a nudge required—a nudge that airpower might be able to deliver. But should the regime collapse, what comes next for Iran’s people is an open question and one not decided by airpower alone. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Syria

Several thousand people marched under the rain in northeast Syria on Tuesday to protest the expulsion of Kurdish fighters from the city of Aleppo after days of deadly clashes. – Reuters

Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces exchanged fire Tuesday in a tense area of eastern Aleppo province, marking a possible escalation after days of clashes in the northern city. – Associated Press

Suzan Quitaz writes: Kurdish residents are encircled on all sides by Sharaa’s forces, affiliated jihadi foreign fighters, and soon the Turks, all armed to the teeth. With violence escalating and humanitarian fear deepening, what we see is a pathetic response from the European Union, expressing “great concern” and calling on all sides to protect civilians. I suggest that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UN chief Antonio Guterres take a leaf out of Gideon Sa’ar’s book of courage. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

In a high-profile summit Tuesday, the leaders of Japan and South Korea—two of the U.S.’s staunchest allies—put on a display of unity as they faced rising economic, technological and military pressures from China. – Wall Street Journal

South Korean prosecutors on Tuesday sought the death penalty for the country’s former President Yoon Suk Yeol who ordered a short-lived declaration of martial law just over a year ago. Here’s what to know. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said on Tuesday South Korea’s hope for an improvement in relations is an illusion that cannot be realised, state media KCNA reported. – Reuters

South Asia

India’s basmati rice exports ​to Iran have slowed to a near standstill amid the protests gripping the Gulf ‌country, with suppliers wary of new deals due to the risk of non-payment and potential additional U.S. tariffs, trade officials said. – Reuters

India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Tuesday he held talks on trade, critical minerals and energy with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. – Reuters

India’s army chief said on Tuesday that the head of Pakistan’s military operations had been told to control what he said were drone intrusions from Pakistan into India, months after the nuclear-armed rivals engaged in their worst fighting in decades. – Reuters

His name is not on the ballot, and his photographs don’t appear on campaign posters. But one man looms large over the general election underway in Myanmar: junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. – Reuters

Top leaders in India and China want to maintain the peace along their border and are working to bridge a trust deficit between the militaries of the two countries, India’s senior-most army commander said. – Bloomberg

Europe

Greenland’s leader said that if his people were asked to choose “here and now,” they would opt to remain a Danish territory rather than join the U.S., aligning the Arctic island’s position tightly with that of Copenhagen before meetings at the White House on Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal

For the 13 years since its founding, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — labeled “right-wing extremist” by the country’s domestic intelligence agency and accused by others of xenophobia, antisemitism and Islamophobia — has stood in opposition. – Washington Post

Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right firebrand, began her appeal on Tuesday against an embezzlement conviction that barred her from elected office for five years. The verdict, expected during the summer, will decide whether Ms. Le Pen can run for president next year and could shape France’s political future. – New York Times

The EU will “swiftly” propose further sanctions on those responsible for the repression of demonstrations in Iran, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday he assumes Iran’s leadership is in its “final days and weeks” as it faces widespread protests. – Reuters

The BBC will file a motion to dismiss U.S. President Donald Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit over its editing of a speech that made it appear he had directed supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol. – Reuters

Nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban will face a strong challenger for the first time in 16 years at Hungary’s parliamentary vote on April 12, with the outcome having profound implications for Europe and its far-right political forces. – Reuters

British foreign minister Yvette Cooper on Tuesday condemned the Iranian leadership for what she described as the “horrendous and brutal killing” of protesters, saying Britain had summoned the Iranian ambassador to underline the gravity of the situation. – Reuters

The Czech Republic’s new government led by populist Prime Minister Andrej Babiš was set to face a mandatory confidence vote in Parliament over its agenda aimed at steering the country away from supporting Ukraine and rejecting some key European Union policies. – Associated Press

Senior members of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s cabinet traveled to Washington this week to try to work out what the real motives are behind US President Donald Trump’s threats to take control of Greenland. – Bloomberg

Greenland’s government said it will intensify efforts to ensure the island’s defenses are managed within the NATO military alliance, pushing back on renewed threats from the US about taking over the territory. – Bloomberg

EU leaders are scrambling to come up with a deal on Greenland’s future that would allow Donald Trump to claim victory on the issue without destroying the alliance that underpins European security. – Politico

The foreign ministries of France, Germany, and Italy summoned their nation’s Iranian ambassadors on Tuesday, as worldwide concern spreads over the Iranian regime’s treatment of domestic protests. – Jerusalem Post

Germany has ordered eight MQ-9B SeaGuardian remotely piloted aircraft from General Atomics Aeronautical Systems in a €1.52 billion ($1.77 billion) contract executed through the NATO Support and Procurement Agency. – Defense News

Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage has urged British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his government to take action in support of Iranians protesting what he described as a “brutal” regime. – Al-Arabiya

James Stavridis writes: But if the Danes and Greenlanders refuse to sell, as looks almost certain, Washington could tighten cooperation through a more binding agreement known as a Compact of Free Association — along the lines of what the US has with the Marshall Islands in the Pacific. Full US control of Denmark is geostrategically appealing. But so often in life, how you do something is more important than what you are doing. Washington needs to build greater security in the Arctic and North Atlantic — but not through a military action that would shatter the NATO alliance. – Bloomberg

The Americas

A Justice Department memo asserted that the support of the Venezuelan opposition led by Maria Corina Machado for U.S. action to oust Nicolás Maduro helped President Trump’s legal case to overthrow him, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

The Supreme Court of Panama is winding up deliberations that will decide whether a Hong Kong company can run two ports at either end of the Panama Canal, a decision closely watched in Washington and Beijing. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s ambitious plans for transforming Venezuela’s oil production will most likely take years to revive the country’s troubled industry — if they succeed at all. But it’s already clear that winners and losers will emerge from the changes. – New York Times

Venezuela’s interim government freed several U.S. citizens who were imprisoned in the South American country, the State Department said on Tuesday. – New York Times

Brazil ran a $2.9 billion trade surplus with Iran last year, government data shows, making the South American nation a potential candidate for new U.S. tariffs. – Reuters

Cubans are bracing for impact after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to cut off a lifeline of Venezuelan oil from reaching Cuba, setting up a siege scenario for an island already reeling from crippling blackouts and shortages. – Reuters

Costa Rica’s national security chief on Tuesday revealed details of an alleged plot to assassinate President Rodrigo Chaves ahead of presidential and legislative elections. – Associated Press

Colombia’s largest remaining rebel group called for a “national accord” to overcome political conflicts in the South American nation, as it faces the prospect of attacks from the governments of both Colombia and the United States. – Associated Press

Venezuela’s acting president plans to send an envoy to Washington to meet with senior US officials on the same day that opposition leader Maria Corina Machado will be in town for her own talks in the wake of Nicolas Maduro’s ouster. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Spain’s cabinet on Tuesday approved draft legislation to curb AI deepfakes and tighten consent rules on images, as European states increasingly move to crack down on AI-generated sexual content. – Reuters

The Chinese government this week told some tech companies it would only approve their purchases of Nvidia’s (NVDA.O), H200 AI chips under special circumstances, such as for university research, the Information reported on Tuesday, citing two people with direct knowledge of the situation. – Reuters

Taiwan prosecutors on Tuesday issued an arrest warrant for the chief executive officer of Chinese smartphone maker OnePlus, alleging he was involved in illegal business and recruitment activities in Taiwan. – Reuters

Google (GOOGL.O), will start developing and manufacturing high-end smartphones in Vietnam this year, Nikkei Asia reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

An X outage eased on Tuesday after thousands of users worldwide reported issues with accessing the social media platform, according to Downdetector.com. – Reuters

Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared her return to X, reversing Nicolas Maduro’s 2024 decision to block the social media platform after feuding with Donald Trump and Elon Musk. – Bloomberg