Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Hamas seeks to rebuild shattered leadership as it faces postwar uncertainty Hamas 'will not give up until last Israeli is gone,' former hostage Eitan Mor says Iran is hunting down Starlink users to stop protest videos from going global U.S. to impose 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, Trump says US says diplomacy with Iran the ‘first option’ as toll in protests rises to 648 WSJ Editorial: Iran’s regime massacres its own people US accuses Russia of ‘dangerous and inexplicable escalation’ of war in Ukraine as Trump seeks peace South Korea president says Japan-China dispute not desirable for regional peace Top Australian writers' festival cancelled after Palestinian author barred Greenland says it should be defended by NATO, rejects any US takeover Venezuela frees 24 more political prisoners, rights group says Two Canadian members of parliament end Taiwan trip ahead of Carney's China visitIn The News
Israel
Hamas is preparing to hold internal elections to rebuild its leadership, decimated by Israel during the war in Gaza, which it sparked by carrying out the October 7, 2023, massacre, sources in the terror group told AFP on Monday. – Agence-France Presse
The Knesset plenum approved in its first reading a bill regulating the prosecution of terrorists who took part in the October 7 massacre overnight on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir unveiled a new multi-year plan on Monday, intended to guide the military from 2026 through 2030, as it reinvigorates its combat capabilities following more than two years of war. – Times of Israel
Former hostage Eitan Mor said he was “amazed” by how much intelligence he saw Hamas had on Israel during his time in captivity, adding that the terrorist group had been focused on rebuilding and preparing for further attacks. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF killed four armed terrorists near the Yellow Line in southern Gaza on Monday after they approached troops and posed an immediate threat, the military stated that evening. – Jerusalem Post
Shuki Friedman writes: Israel did not recognize Somaliland out of a burst of lofty Jewish morality or concern for the right to self-determination in Africa. Here, too, it is about interests – security, strategic, and economic – in the Red Sea arena. But in this case, Israel’s narrow interest aligns with the legal truth and with historical justice. The world will likely continue to embrace “Palestine” and ignore the reality in Somaliland. But Israel’s move may prove, in the context of Somaliland, to be a turning point enabling its recognition by other countries, while realizing its right to self-determination on the basis required by international law. – Jerusalem Post
Seth Mandel writes: They will almost certainly continue to gleefully spread the Iranian war propaganda about Israel, so their rhetorical shift is modest in scope. Nonetheless, it seems to be an implicit nod to the fact that America’s enemies are Israel’s enemies are the enemies of the Iranian people yearning to be free. There are many names in this conflict, but there are only two sides. – Commentary Magazine
Iran
With the government shutting down the internet and throttling phone services, Iranians are leaning heavily on Elon Musk’s Starlink service to share videos of growing protests and the regime’s escalating crackdown with the world. – Wall Street Journal
The White House is weighing a last-ditch Iranian offer to engage in diplomacy over curbing its nuclear program even as President Trump currently leans toward authorizing fresh military strikes on Iran, U.S. officials say. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. will put a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran, President Trump said on Monday, raising pressure on the Middle Eastern nation after days of protests against the government. – Wall Street Journal
Prominent advocates for reform in Iran are supporting a crackdown on antigovernment protesters as the regime closes ranks in the face of one of the biggest challenges to its power. – Wall Street Journal
Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as U.S. President Donald Trump considered how to respond to Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, one of the gravest tests of clerical rule since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. – Reuters
The European Parliament has banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from the assembly’s premises over a deadly crackdown on protests in Iran, the body’s president, Roberta Metsola, announced on Monday. – Agence-France Presse
As Iran faces escalating nationwide protests and rising verbal threats from the Trump administration, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a pointed warning to the United States this week from an unusual platform — his Russian-language account on X — a move analysts say underscores Tehran’s alignment with Moscow as pressure mounts on the regime. – Fox News
Iran is reportedly set to execute its first protester in connection with mass arrests over the widespread anti-regime demonstrations, according to human rights groups. – Fox News
The death toll in the anti-regime protests that have taken Iran by storm over the past two weeks hit 648, an activist group said Monday evening, as Tehran staged major pro-regime rallies and reportedly reached out to the US to de-escalate tensions amid President Donald Trump’s repeated threats of intervention if large numbers of protesters are killed. – Times of Israel
China on Monday expressed hope that the Iranian regime would “overcome” the current anti-government protests sweeping the country, warning against foreign “interference” as US President Donald Trump considered how to respond to Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests. – Algemeiner
President Trump has been briefed on a wide array of military and covert tools that can be used against Iran that go well beyond conventional airstrikes, according to two Defense Department officials who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters. – CBS News
Editorial: An effective U.S. policy would support Iran’s people for as long as it takes them to overwhelm their regime until it becomes paralyzed, shows cracks in its leadership, and can no longer hold back the crowds. Mr. Trump promised to intervene if the regime resorted to mass murder, and the protesters heard him and are dying in the streets. Night after night, they challenge a regime that they know will meet them with bullets. “Death to America,” the Ayatollah and his minions chant. The people of Iran will have to win their own freedom, but this is an historic moment when America can help them topple a dangerous tyranny. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Yet, it would be unwise for external observers to rush toward crowning him as Tehran’s future ruler, literally or symbolically. Doing so risks undermining the credibility of the protests, alienating segments of Iranians, and reinforcing narratives propagated by the regime that the protests are controlled by foreign-backed actors. Pahlavi could, and perhaps should, play a role in the process of establishing a new system of governance. But that decision, as it should be, rests in the hands of the Iranian people. – Jerusalem Post
Afshin Ellian writes: Iranians cannot prevail through bravery alone. They require tangible support from the US and Israel. The overthrow of the Ayatollah regime is also in Europe’s interest. Europe seems deaf to Iranians who are correcting a historical mistake – the establishment of the Islamic Republic. That is why this revolutionary correction, a necessary and just one, can be summed up in two words: Javid Shah (long live the king). Unfortunately, Europe is asleep. – Jerusalem Post
Russia and Ukraine
A U.S.-linked investor group won the rights to develop Ukraine’s Dobra lithium deposit, Kyiv said on Monday, a test case for drawing Western capital into a frontline economy while trying to deepen ties with Washington. – Reuters
Russia said on Tuesday it had summoned Poland’s ambassador to protest over the detention of a Russian archaeologist and demand that he be immediately released instead of extradited to Ukraine. – Reuters
The United States accused Russia on Monday of a “dangerous and inexplicable escalation” of its nearly four-year war in Ukraine at a time when the Trump administration is trying to advance negotiations toward peace. – Associated Press
Ukrainian civilians endured the deadliest year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of their country in 2022, with more than 2,500 people killed in 2025, the United Nations said in a new report Monday. – CNN
Germany will finance the delivery of five Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine under a contract signed in December 2025, with the first systems expected to arrive in the coming weeks, Rheinmetall announced Monday. – Defense News
Middle East & North Africa
Turkey said on Monday that any foreign intervention in neighbouring Iran would lead to greater crises in the country and the region, and it called for U.S. and Iranian negotiations to resolve existing problems. – Reuters
Morocco’s seven-year drought has come to an end after abundant rainfall this winter, Water Minister Nizar Baraka said on Monday. – Reuters
Hundreds of displaced residents returned Monday to an Aleppo neighborhood in northern Syria after days of intense fighting between government forces and Kurdish fighters. – Associated Press
Jonathan Spyer writes: While the UAE works with local anti-Islamist and pro-stability forces in both south Yemen and Somaliland (on the other side of the Gulf of Aden), the Saudis appear to be orienting toward a closer alignment with the emergent Sunni Islamist camp of Turkey and Qatar. This is likely to have implications beyond the specific Yemeni context. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that a dispute between China and Japan was not desirable for regional peace, adding that Seoul would not meddle in the ongoing row. – Reuters
South Korea’s SK Hynix said on Tuesday it has decided to invest 19 trillion won ($12.90 billion) to build an advanced chip packaging plant in South Korea to meet rising memory chip demand related to artificial intelligence. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi agreed to step up cooperation between the neighbors, whose relations are occasionally strained, as they both face growing uncertainty and regional challenges. – Associated Press
China
Finance ministers from the G7 and other major economies met in Washington on Monday to discuss ways to reduce dependence on rare earths from China, including setting a price floor and new partnerships to build up alternative supplies, ministers said. – Reuters
President Xi Jinping on Monday said China’s anti-corruption fight was a battle the country cannot lose, striking a firmer tone in a long-term drive to tackle the graft that has plagued many parts of Chinese society. – Reuters
The Trump administration is nearing a trade deal with Taiwan to reduce its tariff rate to 15% and commit Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation to building at least five more facilities in Arizona, the New York Times reported on Monday, citing three people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Former executives of a now-defunct, pro-democracy newspaper in Hong Kong who were convicted under a national security law pleaded for lighter sentences Tuesday in a landmark case widely seen as a barometer of media freedom in a city once hailed as a bastion of free press in Asia. – Associated Press
South Asia
Ambassador Sergio Gor, a confidant of President Donald Trump, addressed State Department staff and members of the media in India’s capital on Monday in an inaugural event imbued with a familiar sense of stagecraft. – Washington Post
Seven Pakistani police officers were killed in a targeted bomb blast on their armoured vehicle on Monday, police in the northwestern Tank district said, as Islamabad contends with a rising wave of militancy. – Reuters
Indonesia‘s defense minister met Pakistan‘s air force chief in Islamabad to discuss a potential deal that includes the sale of combat jets and killer drones to Jakarta, three security officials with knowledge of the meeting said on Monday. – Algemeiner
Asia
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday announced a national day of mourning would be held on January 22 to remember the 15 people killed in last month’s shooting at a Jewish Hanukkah celebration on Bondi Beach. – Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has conveyed to a ruling party executive her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house at the outset of its regular session, Kyodo news agency said on Tuesday, setting the stage for a snap election. – Reuters
Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto reiterated his commitment to a $32 billion project to build the country’s new capital city as he made his first overnight stay there as president, the government said. – Reuters
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said assessments were ongoing into the impact of China’s decision to restrict exports to Japan of dual-use items for military purposes, and he added Tokyo would take appropriate countermeasures in response. – Bloomberg
Europe
The European Commission and China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Monday guidance that could lead to the removal of tariffs on some electric vehicles imported from China, notably Volkswagen’s Cupra Tavascan. – New York Times
French farmers drove tractors into Paris on Tuesday for the second time in a week to protest against an EU-Mercosur trade deal they say threatens local agriculture by creating unfair competition with cheaper South American imports. – Reuters
Greenland’s government said on Monday it will increase efforts to ensure the defence of the Arctic territory takes place under the auspices of NATO, and again rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambition to take over the island. – Reuters
Former Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili will serve a five-year prison sentence, prosecutors said on Monday, after he agreed to plea guilty to charges of large-scale money laundering. – Reuters
A former Polish justice minister who faces prosecution in his homeland over alleged abuse of power said Monday that he has been granted asylum in Hungary. – Associated Press
The UK cannot afford to fulfill its defense commitments despite a recent spending uplift, the head of the UK’s armed forces warned, weeks after telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer that he’s preparing for spending cuts due to a multibillion-pound shortfall. – Bloomberg
Russia and China are increasingly working together in the Arctic region, and their presence there will be a growing threat to NATO allies, said Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, speaking at a Swedish national security conference on Sunday. – Defense News
Africa
Somalia’s government said on Monday it is annulling all agreements with the United Arab Emirates, including port deals and defence and security cooperation, accusing the UAE of undermining its national sovereignty. – Reuters
Uganda’s government has ordered two local rights groups to halt their work days before Thursday’s election, which the United Nations Human Rights Office says is taking place in an atmosphere of repression and intimidation. – Reuters
Shmuel Legesse writes: As a Black African Jew and an Israeli, I am proud that my country has finally chosen to see Somaliland and to engage with it. I will be even prouder when our diplomacy there speaks not only with an Israeli accent, but also with an Ethiopian one – when the people of Somaliland see in us not as a distant Western power but as a partner that understands their struggle from the inside. That is what real moral diplomacy looks like: a relationship of people to people, rooted in mutual dignity and shared responsibility. And that is something no UN or AU resolution can manufacture. – Jerusalem Post
The Americas
President Trump will receive Venezuelan opposition activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the White House on Thursday, according to administration officials. – Wall Street Journal
In the aftermath of the U.S. raid to seize Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, Washington is trying a new approach to regime change: Keep the regime—and try to change its behavior. – Wall Street Journal
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado used a meeting with Pope Leo XIV on Monday to emphasize the legitimacy of the opposition’s 2024 election victory and raise concern about political prisoners. – Washington Post
Venezuela’s leading human rights organization said on Monday that at least 24 political prisoners had been released from prison in the early morning, bringing the total freed in recent days to at least 41. – New York Times
Venezuela’s government said on Monday that 116 prisoners have been released from prison, adding to releases made in December, according to a statement from the Ministry of Penitentiary Services. – Reuters
Venezuela has released Italian citizens Alberto Trentini and Mario Burlo from prison, Italy said on Monday, pledging to upgrade relations with Caracas in response. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said no other citizens with solely Italian nationality remained in prison, after Venezuela freed, two other Italian nationals, journalist Biagio Pilieri and businessman Luigi Gasperin, last week. – Reuters
North America
President Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday she rejected an offer from President Trump to use the U.S. military against the country’s drug cartels, as Mexican security officials grow concerned about potential American demands in the wake of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s ouster. – Wall Street Journal
Two Canadian Members of Parliament are ending a trip to Taiwan early this week ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China, they said in a statement on Monday. Helena Jaczek and Marie-France Lalonde, members of Carney’s Liberal Party, said they had been pleased to work with members of all political parties on the delegation. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she ruled out a U.S. military intervention to combat drug cartels, following a “good conversation” on Monday with President Donald Trump on security and drug trafficking. – Reuters
United States
Federal arson charges were filed on Monday against a man accused of setting fire to the only synagogue in Jackson, Mississippi, home to the state’s first Jewish congregation and an institute providing religious school programs for Jews across the U.S. Deep South. – Reuters
Anti-Israel activists at Northwestern University in Illinois dropped a lawsuit that had sought to halt the university’s mandatory antisemitism training, according to legal documents filed last month. – Times of Israel
Jonathan Levin writes: The rate-setting committee has 12 voting members at a time, including the seven members of the Board of Governors. The other five votes come from the 12 regional Reserve Bank leaders, 11 of whom were just unanimously reappointed. It’s an institutional structure that was built to withstand executive-branch meddling. Unfortunately, the administration’s latest overreach shows we can’t take anything for granted. That’s why Powell should commit to stay in the fight as long as necessary. – Bloomberg
Cybersecurity
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer escalated his threats against Elon Musk’s X on Monday, vowing to enforce a law that banned the sexualization of people’s images without their consent and calling such content generated by Grok as “disgusting and shameful.” – Bloomberg
Authorities arrested 34 alleged cybercriminals in Spain, including some leaders of Black Axe, a transnational criminal organization responsible for adversary-in-the-middle scams such as business email compromise, money laundering and vehicle trafficking, the Spanish National Police said Friday. – Cyberscoop
Hackers are offering for sale what they claim is a large trove of Armenian government-related data, prompting officials in Yerevan to open an investigation into a potential breach. – The Record
Hungary has granted political asylum to Poland’s former justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, who is being prosecuted for his role in a spyware scandal that has rocked the country. – The Record
A 33-year-old former IT consultant for Sweden’s Armed Forces has been detained on suspicions of spying for Russian intelligence, Swedish prosecutors said on Friday. – The Record
Editorial: The EU apparat in Brussels is already inviting trouble with the fine it imposed on X last month for violating Europe’s cumbersome Digital Services Act. Mr. Musk hinted in 2024 that officials had offered to drop the investigation if he imposed speech restrictions on X. Both cases demonstrate that technical regulations for online platforms can easily slip into censorship. That’s a warning for the U.S. Congress. The warning for Europe is starker: If your most important but most mercurial ally is accusing you of hostility to democratic values such as free speech, don’t provide reason to retaliate. – Wall Street Journal
Aaron Estes writes: For a global power, ignoring gray zone dynamics is increasingly unrealistic. However, embracing them does introduce new forms of risk. Cyber interference below the threshold of war offers flexibility and deniability, but it also creates ambiguity around control, proportionality, and long-term stability […] It demands disciplined judgment, an understanding of complex systems, and an appreciation for how seemingly modest cyber effects can cascade politically and economically. The gray zone may be unavoidable, but how states operate within it will shape whether it becomes an effective tool of competition, or a source of sustained instability. – Cyberscoop
Defense
The Trump administration’s first deadly strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat, in early September, was conducted by a secretive military aircraft painted to look like a civilian plane, multiple officials confirmed to The Washington Post on Monday. – Washington Post
ELTA North America, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) North America, has been awarded an $11 million contract by the United States Navy to design, develop, and produce advanced airborne communications jammers for integration into fighter aircraft as part of the Navy’s Stand-off Jammer (SOJ) Jets program. – Jerusalem Post
The U.S. Coast Guard’s only heavy icebreaker Polar Star (WAGB-10) is in the McMurdo Sound, as it nears the National Science Foundation’s research facility in Antarctica, USNI News has learned. – USNI News
Northrop Grumman will develop autonomous software and expand production lines of the Kratos’ XQ-58 Valkyrie unmanned aerial vehicle in support of the Marine Corps collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) initiative. – USNI News