Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

Nothing is truly the same in Afghanistan for many women whose lives were turned inside out last summer. The spaces that were once theirs in Kabul and other cities — classrooms, jobs, even the streets themselves — are no longer in their hands. The Taliban is now in charge. – Washington Post 

Five months after their takeover of Afghanistan, the Taliban are grappling with the challenges of governance. […]To help fill the gaps, Taliban officials are reaching into Pakistan. – New York Times 

The Taliban administration that seized control of Afghanistan proposed a joint body on Wednesday of its officials and international representatives to coordinate billions of dollars in planned aid. – Reuters 

Gordon Brown writes: To turn our backs now on ordinary Afghans in their hour of greatest need would be the final insult: a badge of shame that the free world would carry for ever. Visiting Kabul a few days ago, a colleague at the organisation I chair, Education Cannot Wait, met a young girl pleading to go back to school. Her name was Arezou. It is the Dari word for wish, indeed for hope. And it is hope that we must offer her and a despairing Afghan people. Now. – The Guardian 

Lebanon

Austria’s foreign minister said Wednesday that the European Union wants to help Lebanon escape its economic meltdown, but only if the country’s leaders clean up Beirut’s affairs. – Associated Press 

A large explosion was heard between Deir El Zahrani and Houmine El Faouqa in southern Lebanon early Thursday morning, according to Lebanese media. – Jerusalem Post 

A general strike by public transportation and labor unions paralyzed Lebanon Thursday as the country suffers one of the world’s worst economic crises. – Associated Press 

Korean Peninsula

After nearly two years of border closures to protect North Korea against the pandemic, some humanitarian aid is trickling into the country, though shipments of key supplies including food remain blocked, according to United Nations organisations. – Reuters 

North Korea said Wednesday its leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a successful flight test of a hypersonic missile he claimed would remarkably increase the country’s nuclear “war deterrent.” – Associated Press 

The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed its first sanctions over North Korea’s weapons programs following a series of North Korean missile launches, including two since last week. – Reuters 

South Korea is set to pay compensation to Iran’s Dayyani Group over a 2015 dispute after the United States cleared the path towards the payment without violating its sanctions against Tehran, the Asian nation’s foreign ministry said. – Reuters 

South Asia

A United Nations special envoy has urged Southeast Asian countries to support international efforts to engage all sides in the crisis in army-ruled Myanmar, days after a top regional leader travelled there to meet its junta chief. – Reuters 

India and Britain formally launched trade talks in New Delhi on Thursday, seeking freer movement of goods and people with a deal projected to increase bilateral trade by billions of pounds. – Reuters 

Derek Grossman writes: A more comprehensive approach to strategic competition might see the Biden administration seeking high-level political exchanges with Cambodia and Laos to facilitate new economic and security agreements, such as the reestablishment of U.S. access to Ream Naval Base. […]But in the end, upping engagement with Cambodia and Laos can only be a net positive for the United States as it competes against China. A purely values-based approach has clearly failed to make headway, isolates the United States in a region where few countries are true democracies, and unnecessarily cedes ground to Beijing. – Foreign Policy 

Russia

The Biden administration has thrown its support behind a bill that would impose mandatory sanctions against Russian leaders, banks and businesses if Moscow escalates hostilities or further invades Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said after discussions Wednesday that differences would be hard to bridge, with Russia increasing pressure on the West to accept its demands for sweeping security guarantees, and the alliance largely refusing to budge. – Wall Street Journal 

From Eastern Europe to the oil fields of Central Asia, President Vladimir V. Putin is straining to maintain a sphere of influence that will keep the forces of history at bay. – New York Times 

Senior Democratic senators on Wednesday will unveil a fresh package of sanctions to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin if he invades Ukraine, an effort backed by the White House as the administration seeks to tamp down defections on a competing measure targeting Moscow set for a closely watched Senate vote this week. – Washington Post  

The United States on Wednesday called on Russia to stay at the negotiating table after a first round of talks over Ukraine this week but continue discussions, including on topics such arms control. – Reuters 

The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of throttling gas supplies to Europe at a time of “heightened geopolitical tensions”, implying that Moscow has manufactured an energy crisis for political ends. – Financial Times 

Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) investigators have arrested a pro-Russian agent accused of “plotting a series of information-psychological attacks in order to bring more chaos” to the major port city of Odessa, a Ukrainian security official told The Daily Beast on Wednesday. – Daily Beast  

George F. Will writes: The E.U. should help hasten Ukraine’s compliance with criteria for membership, and NATO should move significant military assets closer to Ukraine. – Washington Post 

Josh Rogin writes: By enforcing loyalty and deftly working the Hill, the White House might have won the domestic political battle in Washington. Unfortunately, that small victory might come at the cost of giving Putin a much more significant one. – Washington Post 

Avraham Shama writes: The U.S. has been telling the world that war is off the table, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken seems to behave like British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who in 1939 was willing to consider anything but war against Hitler. In such a situation, bullies call the shots. Now it is Putin, tomorrow it could be China’s Xi Jinping. […]The U.S. could be better served using a page from Israel’s play book: to act as if it is ready for war, and to talk as if it is ready for peace. It does not seem that the U.S. and its NATO allies are ready to do so. Their goal seems to be to control the damage that Putin can exact. – The Hill 

Jonah Goldberg writes: But Putin is a master of asking for the whole store so he can settle for a shopping cart full of free goodies. And it sounds like the White House is considering concessions, including delaying military assistance to Ukraine. The political temptation to appease Putin—just a little—is understandable. The last thing Biden needs is yet another international crisis, never mind a war. But one thing is certain: Any concessions to Putin will be little more than down payments on more down the road. – The Dispatch 

Andreas Kluth writes: Putin wants commitments that NATO will never, ever, admit Ukraine or any other country in the region as a member, no matter what the nation in question prefers. And he demands that the alliance in effect demilitarize countries already in NATO that used to belong to the Soviet Union, such as Estonia or Latvia, and others. […]The coming weeks, months and years will tell whether the world is headed into another era of realpolitik and might-makes-right — whether we are destined to return to the amoral and cynical approach to international relations that reduces small countries to pawns on the chessboards of the great powers. – Bloomberg 

Africa

In a sharp reversal of fortunes over just a few weeks, Ethiopian government forces have repelled rebel fighters who had appeared poised to seize the country’s capital, Addis Ababa, and threaten the government led by Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister. – Wall Street Journal 

Southern African countries agreed at a summit on Wednesday to extend their troop deployment in Mozambique to help the government fight an Islamic State-linked insurgency, a communique said. – Reuters 

Nigeria will lift a ban on Twitter (TWTR.N) from midnight after the social media platform agreed to open a local office, among other agreements with authorities in the West African country, a senior government official said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Separatist rebels on Wednesday killed a soldier during an attack on Cameroon’s western city of Buea, the home base for four soccer teams competing in the Africa Cup of Nations, a senior militant said. – Reuters 

A car bomb exploded on a road leading to the airport in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Wednesday, killing at least eight people, the head of the city’s ambulance services said. – Reuters 

The United States on Wednesday brandished the threat of sanctions if troubled Somalia misses its latest deadline for elections. – Agence France-Presse 

Mohammed Ahmed Gain writes: The peoples of the Sahel want governments that are able to deliver basic services in a fair and inclusive manner. Today more than ever, the priority should be on enabling the region and its people, and they should take ownership of the response to all crises in the longer run. European donors should understand that COVID-19 has undermined the old dichotomies and binary oppositions between developed and underdeveloped worlds, and between Europe as a safe haven and Africa as a threat hotspot. The destinies of both the North and the South are now intertwined. – Middle East Institute  

Cybersecurity

The Pentagon’s cybersecurity arm on Wednesday said it has tied a hacking group known as MuddyWater to Iranian intelligence. In doing so, U.S. Cyber Command also identified several open-source software tools being used by the hacking group and disclosed them in an effort to thwart further attacks. MuddyWater allegedly used the tools to gain access to global computer networks. – Bloomberg 

Google’s bid to overturn a 100 million-euro ($114 million) French fine hit a snag after an aide to the nation’s top court backed accusations against the search engine over its cookies policy. – Bloomberg 

Federal agencies are warning about Russian hackers potentially targeting critical infrastructure in the United States. – The Hill