Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

A Russian merchant ship whose owner has allegedly carried weapons for the Kremlin turned off its transponder last month before surreptitiously docking at South Africa’s largest naval base, where it delivered and loaded unidentified cargoes, according to witnesses and a senior U.S. official. – Wall Street Journal

With upgraded weaponry on the way, Western resolve holding firm, and the Ukrainian army continuing to outmaneuver and outwit Russia’s flailing military, Ukraine’s promised “year of victory” is off to a good start. – Washington Post 

For not the first time, Russian leaders dangled the possibility of a de-escalation of fighting in Ukraine, this time in the form of a 36-hour cease-fire that would have taken place this past weekend. But, in a pattern that is now familiar nearly a year into the war, Western and Ukrainian leaders broadly rejected the proposal, calling it a cynical effort to create space for resupplying Russian forces. – New York Times

The Ukrainian authorities have rejected Russian claims that hundreds of Ukrainian troops were killed in a strike in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, and no evidence has emerged to support Moscow’s assertion. – New York Times

Russia has stepped up a powerful assault on Soledar in eastern Ukraine, officials in Kyiv said, forcing Ukrainian troops to repel waves of attacks led by the Wagner contract militia around the salt mining town and nearby fronts. – Reuters

Ukrainian police said on Monday they were looking for two British voluntary workers who had gone missing in east Ukraine, the scene of heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces. – Reuters

Kyiv expects the European Union to include Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom in its next round of sanctions over the war in Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that new deliveries of Western weapons, including French-made armoured vehicles, to Kyiv would “deepen the suffering of the Ukrainian people” and would not change the course of the conflict. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the city of Bakhmut, in the eastern Donbas region, is holding its own despite widespread Russian destruction in the area. – The Hill

Russian authorities on Monday announced parallel criminal probes against a famous actor critical of the war in Ukraine and a philanthropist who supports the Russian opposition, the latest in a months-long, sweeping crackdown on dissent. – Associated Press  

Russia on Monday opted out of a European convention on fighting corruption, a move that comes in the wake of its withdrawal from the Council of Europe following start of Moscow’s military action in Ukraine. – Associated Press

The difference between Russia’s and the United States’s judicial systems is a major factor in negotiations to release Americans detained by Moscow, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan believes. – Washington Examiner

Ukraine will join NATO regardless of continued Russian opposition, the country’s top representative in the United Kingdom has predicted, as Kyiv formulates its demands to end Moscow’s 10 month-old invasion. – Newsweek 

Russia intends to start producing Iranian Shahed drones domestically to use in Ukraine, Kyiv claimed. – Newsweek 

Russian propagandists are pushing for a strike on France due to President Emmanuel Macron’s support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a video posted Monday by Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs. – Newsweek 

The Pentagon has awarded L3Harris Technologies a $40 million order to send Ukraine “Vampire” counter-drone systems by mid-year, the company announced Monday. – C4ISRNet

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Russia’s aggressive intentions, therefore, will end only when its culture and ideology undergoes a seismic shift and comes to accept Ukrainians as human beings and neighbors. Alas, that kind of shift will take time, unless a major defeat produces a crisis in the Russian mindset and accelerates Russia’s extirpation of Putinism and its ideological and cultural roots in the Soviet Union and Imperial Russia. – The Hill

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark write: Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to use reports of Wagner Group success in Soledar to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation as an effective fighting force. Wagner Group forces claimed to capture territory within Soledar over the past few days, and many Russian sources have discussed the gains as indicators that Wagner Group forces may soon encircle Bakhmut. – Institute for the Study of War

Giselle Donnelly writes: But further dramatic Ukrainian advances in any direction may be impossible—and in any case will be more costly in terms of materiel, ammunition, time, and lives—if Ukraine doesn’t receive more advanced weapons fast. As General Omar Bradley, namesake of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, wrote, “Where the objective is lost, the war is prolonged and the cost becomes infinitely worse.” – The Bulwark

Afghanistan

Taliban hard-liners are consolidating their control over Afghanistan with the recent bans on women’s education and work, overriding the wishes of some Taliban officials in the capital, Kabul, and at the provincial level, according to government and aid officials. – Washington Post 

Pentagon officials have held multiple high-level meetings in recent months in preparation for a barrage of Republican-led House investigations into issues varying from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan to what conservative lawmakers have deemed “woke” military policies, according to a senior defense official. – CNN

More than 600 Afghans have been deported from Pakistan in the past three days, and hundreds more face expulsion in a renewed crackdown on migrants. – The Guardian

Middle East & North Africa

Despite Egypt’s condemnation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount last week, relations between the neighboring countries are continuing without “major tension,” an unnamed Egyptian official was quoted as saying Monday. – Times of Israel

The steering committee of the Negev Forum — bringing together Israel, its Abraham Accords partners, Egypt and the US — met Monday in Abu Dhabi to prepare for its second multilateral summit, scheduled for the spring in Morocco. – Times of Israel  

Saudi Arabia said it could increase its investments in the cash-strapped Pakistan economy to $10 billion, the Saudi state news agency reported on Tuesday, as well as increase the ceiling on deposits into the Pakistan central bank to $5 billion. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council on Monday unanimously approved the delivery of humanitarian aid to some four million people in northwestern Syria for another six months, avoiding a traditional fight with Russia over the issue. – Reuters

David Litman, media and education research analyst at the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis (CAMERA), criticized television host Christiane Amanpour after she implied on her television program there is a comparison between the actions of Israel and those of the Syrian regime. – Arutz Sheva

Neville Teller writes: As a first step the foreign ministers decided to form six working groups, each with a specific remit. They were charged with promoting projects in the fields of security, energy, tourism, health, education, and food and water security. The Morocco-based summit will receive progress reports from these groups – the groundwork for developments with the potential to bring enormous benefits across the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Sohail Mahmood writes: Qatar successfully used the World Cup to advance its political goals, markedly advancing its soft power and epitomizing how the small state has become an influential player in global affairs. Undoubtedly, the world’s attention will be more focused on Qatar from here on out. – The National Interest

South Asia

Pakistan held talks Monday with the International Monetary Fund in an effort to restart a stalled bailout program, as economists warn that the country is in danger of defaulting on its foreign debt. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan received over $9 billion in pledges Monday to help it recover from last year’s catastrophic floods, vowing to become a model for how countries can build climate change resilience. – Agence France-Presse

French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris was ready to support Pakistan in its talks with financial institutions, as the country faces huge losses from recent floods. – Reuters

A senior official from the U.S. development agency USAID said on Monday that Washington would provide an additional $100 million in funding for Pakistan’s recovery from devastating floods last year. – Reuters

Advanced surveillance equipment, developed by a company controlled by the former commander of Israeli intelligence’s technology unit, was sold last year to the government of Bangladesh, official government documents and international export records show, despite Bangladesh not being on Israel’s list of countries that such technology may be sold to – and despite its consistently poor human rights record. – Haaretz 

Simon Henderson writes: More broadly, Munir’s trip is a reminder of the nonbinary nature of most relationships in the region. Pakistan regards its relations with the Gulf Arab states as very important and is pleased with their closeness, but its stance toward neighboring Iran remains friendly as well. Nuclear rival India remains its predominant foreign policy concern, so Islamabad is no doubt keeping a close eye on the Gulf’s growing warmth and expanding ties with New Delhi. – Washington Institute

Europe

Germany and France on Monday summoned Iran’s envoys to Berlin and Paris in protest against Tehran’s deadly crackdown on demonstrations and the latest executions of anti-government protesters. – Agence France-Presse 

French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to strengthen cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region amid shared concerns over China and North Korea. – Bloomberg

Sweden and the US have started negotiations on a defense cooperation agreement as the Nordic nation prepares to become a fully fledged member of NATO along with its neighbor Finland. – Bloomberg

Estonia plans to introduce a legal blueprint for seizing Russian assets this month as the Baltic nation moves ahead with a bid to deliver funds frozen under European Union sanctions to Ukraine. – Bloomberg

The European Union has agreed to use the UK’s live database tracking goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, the first sign of progress in a long-running dispute on post-Brexit trading rules. – Bloomberg

The UK is considering sending Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, according to two people familiar with the discussions, underscoring the intensifying efforts of Kyiv’s allies to provide it with heavier offensive weapons. – Bloomberg

Latin America

Brazilian authorities detained about 1,500 supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro who had participated in riots that targeted the Congress and other buildings, as the government expanded an investigation into the mob and who might have financed it. – Wall Street Journal

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva laid much of the blame for the rioting that ransacked government buildings on his predecessor: a right-wing populist who has recently been seen thousands of miles away in Florida munching on fried chicken. – Wall Street Journal

At least five days before a horde of right-wing rioters stormed government buildings at the heart of Brazil’s democracy, the call went out via Telegram and WhatsApp. The message, shared in groups of fervent backers of the country’s Trumpian ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, urged truck drivers, farmers, cattle ranchers, gun owners, business leaders and the “Brazilian people” to act. – Washington Post 

At least 17 people died in Peru in the Andean city of Juliaca on Monday during clashes with law enforcement, the Ombudsman’s office said. – Bloomberg

Peru barred Bolivia’s socialist former president, Evo Morales, from entering its territory on Monday, Peru’s government announced in a statement, a decision Morales later derided as an attack meant to distract from rights violations. – Reuters

The president of Venezuela’s opposition national assembly, Dinorah Figuera, said on Monday a new committee meant to manage the country’s assets abroad will pay off debts to law firms in the United States. – Reuters

Venezuela’s attorney general said on Monday that a court in the country has issued arrest warrants for the new leadership of the opposition national assembly – who all live abroad – for crimes including treason. – Reuters

President Biden on Monday spoke with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva following the riot that broke out in Brazil the day before. – The Hill

A slew of U.S. lawmakers have condemned the recent Jan. 6-style riots in Brazil as far-right supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stormed and vandalized government buildings. – The Hill

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) joined other lawmakers in calling for former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, whose supporters stormed Brazilian governmental offices Sunday, to not be allowed to stay in Florida. – The Hill

President Biden, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau jointly condemned the riots that broke out in Brazil on Sunday. – The Hill

Venezuela issued a “red alert” to Interpol Monday asking it to arrest three members of the new leadership of a parallel, opposition legislature. – Agence France-Presse

Brazilian security forces cleared protest camps Monday and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva condemned “acts of terrorism” after a far-right mob stormed the seat of power in the capital, in chaotic scenes that triggered global shock. – Agence France-Presse  

A Brazilian lawmaker implored the U.S. government to initiate extradition proceedings for former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from the United States on Monday in the wake of his supporters’ attack on government buildings. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: The riots will discredit the radical right, but some in Lula’s Workers’ Party will want to use the event to indict the entire opposition. The Supreme Court, which tried to control political speech during the election, also bears watching for politicized rulings. Defending against violence is one test of democratic institutions but another is not abusing the law to stifle or punish legitimate debate. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Sunday’s events show that Brazil is deeply divided politically and that a far-right minority is willing to use violence. Mr. Lula had his hands full already with a Congress dominated by opposition parties. […]It is still too soon to tell whether Sunday’s attack marked the opening of a budding insurrection — or the final spasm of a failed one. The United States should support Mr. Lula’s efforts to ensure it is the latter. – Washington Post 

Jack Nicas writes: In a televised speech on Monday night, Mr. Lula said that his government would prosecute anyone who had attacked Brazil’s democracy on Sunday. “What they want is a coup, and they won’t have one,” he said. “They have to learn that democracy is the most complicated thing we do.” He and many of Brazil’s top government officials then walked together from the presidential offices to the Supreme Court, crossing the same plaza that a day before was thronged with mobs calling for the overthrow of his government. – New York Times 

Harold Emert writes: Getting back to January 8: The tumult did not surprise this observer, because a few blocks from where I reside in Copacabana, peaceful Sundays have been disrupted by crowds of pro-Bolsonaro supporters waving the Brazilian flag as if it belonged to them only, and screaming for the military to intervene since his election loss. – New York Sun

Benny Avni writes: With a reluctant Mr. Biden and a non-cooperative Mr. Lopez Obrador in power, a renewed war on drugs will be fought with half measures, if at all. As a result, expect an eruption of unprecedented violence in Mexico and record levels of deaths from narcotics in America. – New York Sun

Carlos Gustavo Poggio Teixeira writes: One crucial difference in contrast to the previous military coup in 1964 is that the army would not have the support of the United States but would instead face strong opposition from the White House. In any case, now Brazil’s democracy faces its most crucial test of the last three decades. – The Hill

Eduardo Porter writes: The United States was directly involved in fueling Brazil’s anti-democratic flame. It has a responsibility to help extinguish the fire before it does more damage to Brazil’s democracy. – Bloomberg

United States

The White House on Monday disclosed that lawyers for President Biden discovered what they called a “small number” of classified documents in November in an office Biden had used between his time serving as vice president and president. – The Hill

Former President Trump responded Monday to the breaking news that the Justice Department is reviewing classified documents from President Biden’s tenure as vice president that were found last fall in a private office Biden had previously used. – The Hill

MSNBC host Rachel Maddow came to President Joe Biden’s defense Monday. She juxtaposed his handling of classified material with that of former President Donald Trump. – Washington Examiner

Republican detractors were quick to put President Joe Biden on blast over revelations that classified documents from his vice president days surfaced at a Biden-aligned think tank late last year. – Washington Examiner

Rudy Giuliani, a close ally of Donald Trump involved in efforts to undermine the 2020 presidential election, received a subpoena to testify and provide documents to a federal grand jury in Washington, according to a person familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Defense

The lawyer for former U.S. Marine Corps pilot Daniel Duggan said he was “singled out” for extradition to the United States to face charges of training Chinese military fliers, even though other Australians provided military services to foreign states. – Reuters

The U.S. Air Force’s rollout of its new B-21 Raider stealth bomber in December was just one piece of the puzzle in creating a future two-bomber fleet. The biggest changes are yet to come. – Defense News 

In 2009, the U.S. Navy faced a readiness crisis. The cruiser Chosin and destroyer Stout were both deemed unfit for combat operations by the service’s Board of Inspection and Survey, which at the time checked ships’ material conditions every five years. – Defense News 

The Army’s pre-basic training courses for applicants who come up short on academic or body fat standards will expand this month as service leaders eye that effort as a potentially key tool to combating a crippling recruiting slump. – Military.com

Bryan Clark writes: When US surface force leaders and their industry partners meet this week, they should consider how to make the most of a historic moment. Without the tyranny of the carrier deck or the challenges of undersea communications and endurance, the surface fleet has the greatest potential for rapid adaptation. Improving enemies and tighter budgets may help by making big changes easier to sell. But embracing the opportunity requires investing in the organizations and processes that enable change. Otherwise, the US surface fleet will remain in the 20th Century while its rivals pass it by. – Breaking Defense

Michael C. Howard writes: The Marines would not succeed on this or any similar battlefield today. The assault breaching and bridging needed are gone. The experience and expertise to quickly and effectively employ non-organic bridging and breaching assets are also gone. When the infantry calls out “Engineers Up,” no one will be there to respond. – The National Interest

William R. Hawkins writes: The fleet won’t reach its targeted goal of 355 manned ships until decades later (compared to 300 afloat today). More importantly, the building pace will not keep up with an expanding Chinese fleet. It is not a “just in time” schedule to meet Beijing’s ambitions. What could we do in 1938 that we cannot do in 2023? Are we poorer as a country? Are our international interests less? Is the world security situation better? How we think about these questions will determine what we do in the next few years and whether the U.S. Navy can prevail in a future battle off an island in the Pacific. – The National Interest