Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Biden administration is waiving sanctions on some of Iran’s civilian nuclear activities as it seeks to close a deal with Iran on returning to the 2015 nuclear pact. The U.S. will once again allow foreign companies and officials to work on certain nonweapons Iranian nuclear facilities, reversing a Trump administration decision in 2020 to sanction that work, which froze this activity, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. – Wall Street Journal 

US steps on lifting sanctions are “good but not enough”, Iran said Saturday, following Washington’s announcement it was waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear programme. – Agence France-Presse 

Iran on Sunday put on trial the alleged leader of a US-based “terrorist group” accused of being behind a deadly mosque bombing in 2008, the judiciary said. Iran-born Jamshid Sharmahd, 66, who is also a German national and a US resident, is charged with spreading “corruption on earth”, one of the most severe charges in the Islamic republic, and which carries the death penalty. – Agence France-Presse 

In 2015, Iran reached a historic deal with six world powers to trade curbs on its nuclear programme for sanctions relief, including on oil. But in 2018, the United States under Donald Trump’s presidency quit the deal, and sanctions snapped back. – Reuters 

Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani said on Saturday that it has a right to continue nuclear research and development that cannot be curbed by any agreement. – Reuters 

The Iran nuclear deal that world powers are negotiating in Vienna will make it harder to stave off a nuclear Iran, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned at the opening of Sunday’s cabinet meeting. – Jerusalem Post 

The Aban Tribunal, the people’s tribunal probing into the Iranian regime’s killings of protesters and human rights violations during the November 2019 protests, has charged 160 Islamic Republic officials with “committing crimes against humanity”. – Iran International 

Editorial: It’s egregious that all this is happening as Iran continues to spread terror in the region (see the Houthis) and stonewall international nuclear inspectors. Washington has held off on censuring Tehran at the International Atomic Energy Agency, fearful that a rebuke at the organization’s Board of Governors will cause the Iranians to walk. But if Iran won’t allow outsiders to fully verify its nuclear activity, what good is a deal that claims to limit nuclear activity? – Wall Street Journal 

Bobby Ghosh writes: The only reason the Islamic Republic has a nuclear program at all is to menace its neighbors and blackmail the wider world into giving the theocrats of Tehran what they want: money, from unrestricted oil and gas exports as well as access to frozen assets abroad; and power, which comes from using the money to acquire weapons and finance terrorist groups throughout the Middle East. Biden may think his sanctions waivers will persuade the Iranians to back off their nuclear ambitions. But the message they will receive is just the opposite. – Bloomberg 

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Over the weekend, the US seemed to make stunning news, giving Iran a sanctions waiver even though Iran is still refusing, so far, to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal’s limits. […]Signs of an imminent full or partial deal would involve sanctions waivers to countries such as China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea. These were eight countries to which even the Trump administration granted exemptions from sanctions between May 2018 and May 2019. This still has not happened. But it could be tomorrow’s news very soon. – Jerusalem Post 

Peter Berkowitz writes: The Biden administration has a short time left to learn the larger lesson of Tom Cotton’s letter: Toothless, legally nonbinding agreements with Iran invite aggression, endanger friends and partners, and undermine international order. – Real Clear Politics 

Syria

Child detainees at a prison in northeast Syria that was attacked by ISIS two weeks ago are injured, hungry and thirsty, according to the first international aid worker to see them since the siege. – New York Times 

Peter W. Galbraith writes: Once the Kurds have established the alternate arrangements for the children, countries must move promptly to repatriate their child citizens. And there is every reason to think they will. Unlike the adults, children are not seen as dangerous. […]It’s clearly not in any child’s best interest to be surrounded by terrorist ideology or face a lifetime in prison, having committed no crime. – New York Times 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: In short, these two ISIS leaders lived as close as possible to Turkey’s key border crossing with Syria, without actually moving to Turkey. If they had lived any close they would have had to cross the border. And this is an active border crossing where extremist groups have received assistance in the past. […]That the new leader of ISIS who came on the scene after Baghdadi’s demise choose to live close to where the US found Baghdadi, showed he was not concerned. Now he is dead and it is unclear if more ISIS leaders will be found in this area, or if they will transit the border or through Afrin and Idlib to some other area. – Jerusalem Post 

Israel

The embattled leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization held a rare meeting Sunday to fill key roles that could hint at a favoured successor for 86-year-old Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas. – Agence France-Presse 

U.S. President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett he looks forward to visiting Israel in 2022 during a call that included discussion of the threat posed by Iran and its proxies, the White House said in a statement. – Bloomberg 

Israel’s prime minister on Sunday congratulated President Joe Biden for last week’s deadly raid in Syria that killed the leader of the Islamic State group, the Israeli premier’s office announced. – Associated Press 

The public corruption trial of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue despite the revelations of the ongoing police spying scandal, judges at the  Jerusalem District Court ruled on Monday morning. – Jerusalem Post 

US President Joe Biden emphasized his administration’s “full support” for replenishing Israel’s Iron Dome system in his call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the White House said in a statement on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post 

A delegation of parliament members of the United Arab Emirates will come to the Knesset in an unprecedented visit on Monday. – Jerusalem Post  

The United Kingdom dismissed Amnesty International’s claim that Israel is an apartheid state but warned that it must uphold international law and Palestinian human rights. – Jerusalem Post 

For the past week, Palestinians from Gaza have been participating in a series of social media events criticizing Hamas rule in the Strip, voicing concerns rarely expressed in the repressive enclave. – Times of Israel 

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told a rare gathering of the Palestine Liberation Organization leadership on Sunday night that recent meetings between senior Israeli and Palestinian officials served Palestinian interests but were not a substitute for the peace process. – Times of Israel 

Elliot Kaufman writes: Amnesty International and a dozen U.N. bodies would love nothing more than to preside as arbiters in this latest trial of the Jews. We are lucky that they have no power to compel Israel’s participation. But if the apartheid charge were to stick, rallying an international boycott and authorizing renewed armed resistance, who’s to say the Jews couldn’t be paraded into court one more time? – Wall Street Journal 

Kenneth Jacobson writes: In a world where criticism of the State of Israel and its policies is hardly unusual, the newly issued Amnesty International report stands out for its offensiveness and destructiveness. – Times of Israel 

Arabian Peninsula

Israel and the United Arab Emirates are accelerating their security and intelligence cooperation efforts in the wake of a series of attacks on Abu Dhabi by Tehran-backed militants in Yemen that have triggered new concerns about the threat posed by Iran and its allies – Wall Street Journal 

Morgan L. Kaplan writes: There is no doubt that the United States can and should recalibrate its approach to the Middle East, both to advance American interests in the region and to ensure that American’s focus on great-power crises in Asia and Europe are not disrupted. But, without a clear understanding of what America hopes to achieve in the region and how it intends to go about doing so, both America’s allies and adversaries are likely to challenge and probe the limits of American support in potentially dangerous ways. – War on the Rocks 

The UN’s humanitarian coordinator for war-torn Yemen said he held constructive talks with government officials and Huthi rebels over dealing with the threat posed by a rusting oil tanker abandoned offshore. – Agence France-Presse 

Gulf States

The head of U.S. Central Command arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday to build on recent measures announced by the Pentagon to help reinforce the UAE’s defenses after attacks by Iranian-affiliated rebels in Yemen – Washington Post 

Iraq’s Supreme Court said Sunday it had temporarily suspended Hoshyar Zebari, a frontrunner for the presidency, on the eve of parliament’s vote on the position, citing years-old corruption charges against him. – Agence France-Presse 

Israel Police Chief Kobi Shabtai landed in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, becoming the first Israeli police commissioner to visit the UAE. – Jerusalem Post 

As rocket and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates have increased, talks are underway between Israel and several Persian Gulf states to understand which air-defense systems are most relevant for the threats they face. – Jerusalem Post 

Korean Peninsula

The U.S. special representative for North Korea will meet with Japanese and South Korean officials later this week, the U.S. State Department said on Sunday, following a series of ballistic missile tests U.S. officials said Pyongyang launched last month. – Reuters 

North Korea continued to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs during the past year and cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges were an important revenue source for Pyongyang, according to an excerpt of a confidential United Nations report seen on Saturday by Reuters. – Reuters 

The key to solving the issue of North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs is in the United States’ hands, China’s U.N. envoy said on Friday, urging Washington to show “more sincerity and flexibility” if it wants a breakthrough. – Reuters   

As Kim Jong Un unleashed his biggest-ever barrage of missile tests last month, one place suffered the most: a barren piles of rocks whose name means “No Man’s Land.” – Bloomberg 

Of all the missile systems tested in recent weeks, it is the development of a new generation of manoeuvrable weapons designed to evade missile defence systems that has most intrigued defence experts. – Financial Times  

Andrew Yeo writes: With the United States and NATO tangling with Russia over Ukraine, and China hosting the Winter Olympics in Beijing, North Korea may not be an immediate priority for any of the great powers. But, as the past few weeks have demonstrated, the North Korean nuisance will not take care of itself. – Washington Post 

Lindsay Lloyd writes: Nominating a special envoy on North Korean human rights is an important step toward fulfilling that inaugural promise — as well as living up to our principles — and the president should quickly send a nominee to the Senate for an equally quick confirmation. Having a special envoy in place can help pressure the North Korean regime, promote U.S. strategic objectives, as well as provide a source of hope to the North Korean people. – The Hill 

South Asia

The editor of a news website has been arrested in Kashmir, in what critics called the latest example of a wave of harassment of journalists by the authorities in the troubled region. – New York Times 

Pakistani troops have put an end to four days of assaults by separatists in Balochistan province, the army said Saturday, putting the final death toll at 20 militants and nine soldiers. – Agence France-Presse 

Militants firing from inside Afghanistan killed at least five Pakistani soldiers at a border post in northwestern Kurram district on Sunday, the Pakistan military said, the second such attack since Taliban militants took over Kabul in August. – Reuters 

Russia

Efforts to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine will intensify this week, as world leaders make a heightened push for a diplomatic solution, even as new U.S. military and intelligence assessments — which estimated Russia could seize Kyiv in days and leave up to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded — suggest that the window for negotiations is closing. – Washington Post 

Senior Biden administration officials told lawmakers this past week that they believed the Russian military had assembled 70 percent of the forces it would need to mount a full invasion of Ukraine, painting the most ominous picture yet of the options that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has created for himself in recent weeks. – New York Times 

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is warning that a Russian invasion of Ukraine “could happen at any time” — as US officials said Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has assembled 70 percent of the firepower he needs to launch a full-scale attack. – New York Post 

A fresh round of diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine kicks off on February 7, with French President Emmanuel Macron meeting Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Moscow and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz heading to the United States for talks with President Joe Biden. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Satellite images by a private U.S. company published on Sunday showed details of military maneuvres at the Belarus border with Ukraine ahead of joint drills announced by Moscow and Minsk that NATO has called the biggest deployment to Belarus since the Cold War. – Reuters 

The fate of nuclear arms controls talks between Russia and the United States will to a large extent depend on how the negotiations on Moscow’s security demands progress, a senior Russian diplomat was quoted as saying on Monday. – Reuters 

Serhy Yekelchyk writes: Ukraine’s separate ethnic identity challenges Russia’s very vision of itself as an empire, and Ukraine’s political identity defies Putin’s authoritarian political model. A successful Ukraine next door could serve as an example to the Russians, who are now deprived of all political freedoms in part because the two recent Ukrainian revolutions have scared Putin so much. If the West helps build a democratic and prosperous Ukraine, its very existence can one day bring about a democratic Russia. That is what Putin really fears. And that is why Zelenskyy has no choice but to dust off his history books. – Politico 

Africa

The militia group everyone calls CODECO — the Cooperative for Development of Congo — was responsible for Tuesday’s assault, according to the government. It was one of the worst recent attacks, but the violence has escalated since May when the government declared martial law in the region: More than 800 deaths were recorded in Ituri in the last six months of 2021, according to Kivu Security Tracker, a human rights project. – New York Times 

Four people were hurt when a bomb exploded at a busy market in the city of Beni in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Saturday, police said, days after the U.S. embassy in the capital Kinshasa warned of a possible attack. – Reuters 

Clashes between military forces and armed groups at the facilities of a former international peace-keeping mission in Sudan’s Darfur region left an unknown number of people dead and injured on Saturday, a military statement said. – Reuters 

Leaders gathered at an African Union (AU) summit called on Saturday for the continent to have a bigger role on the international stage amid signs the bloc is struggling to forge a coordinated response to challenges from coups to COVID-19. – Reuters 

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Sunday she was “very sceptical” that the country could maintain its troops in Mali amid growing tension between the West African country and its international partners. – Reuters 

The European Union on Friday imposed sanctions on five senior members of Mali’s transitional government, including Prime Minister Choguel Maiga, accusing them of working to obstruct and undermine the transition from military to civilian rule. – Associated Press 

United States

With the threat of war hanging over Europe and rising tensions in the standoff with Russia over Ukraine, Mr. Scholz is headed to Washington on Monday for his first meeting with President Biden since taking over as chancellor in December. Foremost on his agenda: Show the world that Berlin is committed to the Western alliance — and, well, show his face. – New York Times 

Elaine McCusker and Emily Coletta write: Solving this barrier by redefining national security, and therefore what belongs in the DoD budget, to focus on military capability should be a U.S. priority. Removing lower priority expenses or transitioning their funding to another, more appropriate department or agency will result in a real sense of what defense costs and make room in the budget for military readiness, modernization, and operations, including those critical to Taiwan efforts. – The National Interest 

Defense

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency needs to improve its cost estimates for missile defense programs and flight tests, the Government Accountability Office said in a Feb. 2 report. – Defense News 

As the Defense Department looks for ways to up its hypersonics game, it needs to refocus its priorities towards protecting ships, air bases and other critical tactical assets from Chinese and Russian cruise missiles and glide vehicles, asserts a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). – Breaking Defense 

Congress this week will take a closer look at military policies regarding remote air strikes against foreign enemies, amid criticism from outside groups that the Defense Department hasn’t done enough to limit civilian casualties. – Military Times