Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The United Arab Emirates has drafted plans to build a compound to house thousands of displaced Palestinians in a part of south Gaza under Israeli military control, according to a map seen by Reuters and people briefed on the plans. – Reuters

Activists behind a flotilla intercepted at sea last year by Israel while trying to bring aid to Gaza will try again this year, expecting more than twice as many boats carrying up to 1,000 medics, they said on Thursday. – Reuters

A selection of intelligence documents, which shed light on Israel’s strategic blindness leading up to the October 7 massacre, was published on Thursday by the Prime Minister’s Office. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignored multiple warnings in the days and months leading up to the October 7 massacre, opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid claimed following the release of pre-October 7 intelligence documents on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Bezalel Zini, the brother of Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) David Zini, was indicted on Thursday along with two other men in a wide-ranging wartime security case in which prosecutors allege that a network of Israeli reservists and civilians smuggled prohibited goods – primarily cigarettes and tobacco – into the Gaza Strip during Israel’s war with Hamas. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli officials estimated on Thursday that it is unlikely that Iran and the US will reach an agreement during the slated talks between senior officials in Oman on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

Elimelech Stern was sentenced to three years in prison by the Jerusalem District Court on Thursday after it convicted him of maintaining contact with an Iranian intelligence operative and conspiring to issue threats. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s economy is expected to strengthen following the halting of the war in Gaza against the Hamas terror group, but a resumption of regional conflicts remains a key concern to growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in a report on Thursday. – Times of Israel

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the Hamas terrorist organization has to give up its weapons, warning that if it does not, it will be destroyed. – Arutz Sheva

Israeli security services have uncovered and foiled an espionage network operating on behalf of Iranian intelligence inside Israel, the ISA and Israel Police announced. – Arutz Sheva

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday received a draft provisional constitution for the proposed “State of Palestine,” marking another step in the Palestinian leadership’s effort to advance independent statehood. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: Human Rights Watch says the report didn’t meet its standards. Even Ken Roth, under whose leadership (1993-2022) Human Rights Watch waged political warfare against Israel, said the report used an “unsupported legal theory.” In reply Mr. Shakir asked if Mr. Roth has “different rules for Palestine.” Mr. Roth, who hired Mr. Shakir and took such relish in denouncing Israel, now learns a hard lesson: Once you start abusing the language of human rights for political purposes, it isn’t easy to stop. – Wall Street Journal

Gideon Israel writes: The transition to “West Bank” occurred in 1950, when Jordan annexed the territory. This political rebranding, recognized by only a handful of countries, sought to justify a Jordanian presence west of the river. It lasted only a couple of decades, yet it managed to cloud thousands of years of history. By replacing “the West Bank” with “Judea and Samaria,” American lawmakers are doing more than making a geopolitical statement. They are affirming a worldview rooted in biblical record while fighting the erasure of the foundations upon which Western civilization is built. – Wall Street Journal

Ghaith al-Omari writes: Enabling the committee to succeed will require substantial effort and political capital from all stakeholders. Daunting as this may be, officials should keep in mind that failure would only create a vacuum that Hamas would inevitably fill. This would be severely detrimental not only to Palestinian and Israeli interests, but also to President Trump’s peace plan and its core principle of preventing a terrorist group like Hamas from retaining any role in the future governance of Gaza. – Washington Institute

Russia and Ukraine

U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have come away from two days of talks in Abu Dhabi with what appeared to be only modest progress in making a deal to end the war in Ukraine, and hardly any at all on the most difficult topic: the amount of territory Moscow and Kyiv should control in the eastern Donbas area. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump on Thursday said that he wants the U.S. to negotiate a new strategic-arms treaty after the lapse of the last major nuclear pact with Moscow. But he said nothing about how he hopes to constrain Russian, Chinese and U.S. nuclear forces in the months or years that it might take to draft a new nuclear pact. – Wall Street Journal

Russian troops fighting in Ukraine have reported losing their Starlink satellite internet, according to Russia’s pro-war military bloggers, after the SpaceX tycoon Elon Musk acted on a Ukrainian request to curtail access to his network, which Russian soldiers had been using illicitly. – New York Times

Nighttime shelling by Ukraine inflicted “serious damage” in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border, the region’s governor said early on Friday. Vyacheslav Gladkov, in a solemn video posted on Telegram after midnight, said city officials were holding an emergency meeting to devise a plan of action. – Reuters

Russia expelled a German diplomat on Thursday in response to what it said was Berlin’s groundless expulsion of a Russian diplomat last month and accused Germany of being in the grip of “spy mania”. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday it did not want to waste time answering questions about unproven suggestions in Western media and by Poland’s premier that late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein may have been some sort of Russian intelligence asset. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military said on Thursday it had carried out a series of “successful” strikes in January on a launch site for Russian intermediate-range ballistic missiles. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia would continue taking a responsible approach to strategic nuclear stability, despite the expiry of the last nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington. – Reuters

The U.S. and Russia agreed Thursday to reestablish high-level military dialogue for the first time in more than four years in another sign of warming relations between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to office and sought to end the war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Ukrainian forces have lost over 55,000 people over the course of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Thursday. – Fox News

Justin Sherman writes: Especially since February 2022, however, it has become increasingly difficult for companies to seriously commercialize in Russia without turning to the military-industrial complex. That’s bad news for the West. Ventures whose capital needs are high up front are more likely to turn to the defense base for funding. Companies looking to sell internationally know they will need to not just bend the knee if asked but actively court Russian defense contracts. And even though a tax incentive didn’t cause many Russian UAV firms to eagerly support the Putin regime’s slaughter in Ukraine, it certainly won’t encourage them to stop it. – Defense News

Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte write: Though Europe and the United States would be wise to reestablish a coordinated process for handling the war, transatlantic friction will likely hinder such efforts. Europe should therefore step up its support for Kyiv, while readying itself for Russian escalation in and around Ukraine. Most important, U.S. and European leaders should not rush any talks to end the conflict. They must keep in mind the power their countries hold. Russia is neither invincible nor surging ahead. It is merely one of many countries disadvantaged by the anarchic world order Trump has unleashed in his second term. – Foreign Affairs

Turkey

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will push for a speedy resumption of talks with the European Union to update their customs union during a visit to Turkey by the bloc’s commissioner for enlargement, a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said on Thursday. – Reuters

As vice president of the chamber of commerce in the eastern Turkish city of Van, Fevzi Celiktas’s job is to boost the local economy. But he has one major problem: his neighbors. “We have some of the most feared countries in the world right on our doorstep: Iraq, Syria, and Iran,” he said. – Agence France-Presse

Liron Rose and Amit Shabi write: Because one day, Washington will have to reconcile Trump’s ban on the Muslim Brotherhood with Erdogan’s role as its most powerful patron. When that day comes, the question will not be about intent. It will be about leverage. Who will insist that ideology matters more than convenience? And who will finally decide that tolerating Turkey’s ambitions and its Brotherhood patronage comes at too high a cost? The collision is not inevitable, but it is looming. The collision between principle and power is coming. Trump will have to choose which side of history he is on. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Two brothers who were beaten and restrained by security guards at the Egyptian Mission to the United Nations in New York City last summer have sued Egypt, claiming that the government is responsible for the attack. – New York Times

The UK’s trade minister said a free-trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council was “imminent,” as the Starmer government looks to build on pacts last year with the European Union, India and the US. – Bloomberg

The slain son of former Libyan ruler Muammar Qaddafi will be buried in a town south of the capital that remains loyal to the family, relatives said Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

The IDF struck several Hezbollah tunnels used as weapons storage facilities across Lebanon, the military announced on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said on Thursday that he had cut short a meeting with the chief of staff of the Lebanese army after the latter refused to acknowledge that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. – Arutz Sheva

Eric R. Mandel writes: If America remains strong and clear-eyed, it will retain influence and reinforce Israel’s deterrence. If it appears desperate for deals and photo opportunities, that is all it will get. The Middle East does not reward wishful thinking. It rewards power, clarity, and patience. Washington must learn to play by those rules or continue paying the price, along with Israel, for misunderstanding the region. – Jerusalem Post

China

Hong Kong media tycoon and democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai will be sentenced on February 9, the city’s judiciary said on Friday, in a closely watched national security trial that has drawn international criticism including from the U.S. and Britain. – Reuters

Around a third of countries attending a military AI summit agreed on Thursday to a declaration on how to govern deployment of the technology in warfare, but military heavyweights China and the U.S. opted out. – Reuters

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino said on Thursday that the concession of contracts to operate two ports held and operated for nearly three decades by Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Holdings (0001.HK), will “never again” be issued to a single company. – Reuters

China firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding national sovereignty and security and “opposes unwarranted interference by external forces”, China’s foreign minister told his Cuban counterpart on Thursday, as the U.S. tightens the screws on the island nation. – Reuters

Three Chinese lawmakers with ties to the defence sector have been removed from their positions, state media said in the wake of an investigation of the nation’s top general, just as Beijing tries to modernise its military. – Reuters

The Chinese foreign ministry said on Thursday that the expiration of the U.S.-Russia arms treaty was regrettable, and urged the U.S. to resume dialogue with Russia on “strategic stability”. – Reuters

China opposes any country undermining the international economic and trade order through rules imposed by small groups, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Thursday, after the United States unveiled plans for a preferential trade bloc of allies for critical minerals. – Reuters

China said on Friday it was open to dialogue with Lithuania after the Baltic nation’s prime minister described as a “mistake” its 2021 decision to let Taiwan set up a de facto embassy in the capital of Vilnius. – Reuters

Editorial: Trump said he has asked Xi to release Hong Kong democracy advocate Jimmy Lai, who is wrongfully imprisoned, and he can continue to push for his release as negotiations continue. He can also push for progress on religious freedom and the release of countless other political prisoners. In this critical year for a critical relationship, the Trump administration won’t win on every issue. Yet there’s no reason to negotiate with itself — by preemptively dropping demands on human rights or backing off support for allies — before talks with Xi and his advisers begin. – Washington Post

Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wore a black-leather jacket and rode a motorcycle to her admissions interview at an elite training academy for aspiring leaders four decades ago. […] In her interview, she declared with beaming confidence a goal of entering politics, a field still dominated in Japan by wealthy sons of famous dynasties. – Wall Street Journal

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501.T), said on Friday it plans to restart the No. 6 reactor at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant on February 9. A company official made the announcement at a press conference. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump gave his “total endorsement” of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ahead of a national election there on Sunday, adding he would meet her at the White House on March 19. – Reuters

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has asked France to provide historical documents to help resolve an enduring border dispute with Thailand that twice spilled over into armed conflict last year, Cambodia’s foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S.-based Kratos Defense (KTOS.O), and Taiwan’s military have successfully tested a new jet-powered attack drone, a move aimed at rapidly boosting the island’s ability to field “large numbers” of low-cost drone amid a rising Chinese threat. – Reuters

Taiwanese people are at risk of becoming “numb” to China’s daily military and other pressure tactics to wear down the island, but the threat is real and greater readiness is needed, Defence Minister Wellington Koo said. – Reuters

When Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament on Dec. 12, he did so hoping a surge of nationalism fuelled by last year’s deadly border clashes with Cambodia would help him consolidate power in a general election. – Reuters

Indonesia and Australia signed a security treaty on Friday that commits them to consult each other if either country is threatened, President Prabowo Subianto said after a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Jakarta. – Reuters

New Zealand must continue to evolve in a way that empowers its Indigenous Maori while preserving national unity, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said, as the country on Friday marked the anniversary of the signing of its founding document. – Reuters

Azerbaijan sentenced Armenian leaders of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to life in prison at the end of trials that followed its military seizure of the breakaway enclave. – Bloomberg

Singapore’s military is implementing new doctrines to counter swarms of low-cost drones and boosting its drone capabilities by relying largely on Israeli-made systems as the baseline of its fleet, the Air Force chief said. – Defense News

Gearoid Reidy writes: Takaichi might even seek to use her popularity to push for reform to enshrine the status of the defense forces in the country’s pacifist constitution. That’s something past leaders have discussed but never felt emboldened to pursue (though her tricky position in the upper house complicates the picture). Learn to read between the lines. Even her plan to cut the sales tax has already faded from public debate during campaigning, and might never come to pass. Takaichi says a lot of things — perhaps take her seriously, not literally. – Bloomberg

Alina Polyakova writes: As the world’s fourth-largest economy, Japan is aware how its geopolitical standing is affected by struggles with long-term economic stagnation, an aging population, and a malaise amongst younger generations who have only experienced a country in stagnation. But it is exactly this pragmatism and clarity about immediate and long-term threats that make it stand out, and ready to make the radical adjustments that may follow if the US backs away from its old role as the world’s dominant security power. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Africa

There are still bloodstains and bullet holes in the mud-brick alcove where villagers took shelter last month after militants overran their community, opening fire on residents who had gathered to drink tea in the town square. – Washington Post

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has deployed an army battalion to Kaiama district in the central Kwara state after suspected jihadist fighters killed 170 people in an overnight attack, his office said on Thursday. – Reuters

Security services have now rescued all 166 worshippers who were kidnapped by gunmen during attacks on two churches in northern Nigeria last month, a Christian group said on Thursday. – Reuters

Acute malnutrition has reached famine levels in two more areas of North Darfur, Sudan, a global hunger monitor said on Thursday, amid a civil war that has displaced millions and triggered waves of ethnically charged violence. – Reuters

Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis said on Thursday that he was considering running for the leadership of the Democratic Alliance, the second-biggest party in South Africa’s coalition government. – Reuters

Britain sanctioned six individuals suspected of committing atrocities in Sudan’s war or of fuelling the conflict through the supply of mercenaries and military equipment, the government said on Thursday. – Reuters

The fighting, unfolding away from urban areas and largely overlooked by international mediators, is drawing in more forces from all sides in the war in eastern Congo, with the potential to further complicate efforts by the Trump administration to bring peace and Western minerals investments to the region. – Reuters

Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou N’guesso announced Thursday that he will run in the March 15 presidential election, possibly extending his decades-long hold on power in the Central African country. – Associated Press

Justice Malala writes: There are more than 100 active territorial disputes in Africa stemming from colonial-era border arrangements, many causing significant instability and wars. […] At such a pivotal moment in world history, Africa’s leaders need to act with urgency to put in place measures that guide individual countries’ negotiators on trade and other matters. If they don’t show a united front — and soon — they may find the new “scramble for Africa” ends badly for them all. – Bloomberg

James Foggo writes: Sudan does not require another externally brokered pause in fighting. It requires an internal institutional reset that returns armed forces to a professional defense role and removes them from direct governance. Ending the war ultimately requires ending the system that perpetuates it. The cost of delay will be measured not only in Sudanese lives but also in the expansion of regional instability and diminished strategic control over a critical maritime domain. History will assess this moment not by the sophistication of weapons deployed, but by whether strategic clarity prevailed over tactical expediency. – The National Interest

North America

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said his government is willing to engage with the Trump administration as the Communist island braces for severe fuel shortages after the U.S. threatened to impose trade sanctions on countries shipping oil to the Communist island. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada announced on Thursday a sweeping plan to offer billions of dollars in incentives and tax breaks for auto industry investment designed to help turn Canada into a global leader in electric vehicles. – New York Times

Mexican authorities on Thursday arrested the mayor of the municipality of Tequila, birthplace of the agave spirit, for allegedly extorting major distillers in collusion with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). – Reuters

Mexican officials are evaluating how to send fuel to Cuba to help meet basic needs such as electricity and transportation without triggering reprisals from Washington, which has threatened tariffs against countries supplying fuel to the Caribbean island, four sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

The U.S. government on Thursday announced an additional $6 million in aid for Cuba as the island’s crisis deepens and tensions escalate between the two countries, with Cuba’s president accusing the U.S. of an “energy blockade.” – Associated Press

Mary Beth Sheridan writes: Ms. Sheinbaum might not be personally afraid of the cartels; she has, after all, continued to traverse the country, attending rallies and open-air events. But she may well be wary of taking on a system of collusion with organized crime, especially when her hold on the faction-ridden Morena is shaky. With Mr. Trump breathing down her neck, she may find herself increasingly caught between a superpower demanding a crusade and a political machine that survives on the status quo. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

Slovenia is preparing draft legislation to ban social media access for children under 15, Deputy Prime Minister Matej Arcon told a news conference on Thursday. – Reuters

Emmanuel Macron said France will look at the effects of violent video games and artificial intelligence agents on kids as the French president also pushes for a social media ban for minors under 15. – Bloomberg

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats are considering a social media ban for children below the age of 16 amid growing scrutiny of the digital offerings across Europe. – Bloomberg

A Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency order published Thursday directs federal agencies to stop using “edge devices” like firewalls and routers that their manufacturers no longer support. – CyberScoop

Researchers have uncovered additional cyberattacks carried out by Russian state-linked hackers exploiting a Microsoft Office vulnerability as part of what they described as a “sophisticated espionage campaign.” – The Record

A cyberespionage group based in Asia breached the systems of 37 governments and conducted reconnaissance in 155 countries, according to a new report from Palo Alto Networks. – The Record

Megan K. Jacobson writes: The commission further raised the pressure for X to give in on censorship by ordering it to give researchers easier access to its data, particularly for those investigating general “misinformation”—though the legal basis for this is questionable. […] Unless Washington or sensible European voices push back against the commission, platforms and those of us who enjoy free online expression are largely at its whim. Let’s hope someone on either side of the Atlantic cares about preserving actual liberal democracy. – Wall Street Journal

Pedro Tavares and Gustavo Magalhães write: The stakes extend far beyond data policy. At issue is Europe’s ability to remain economically relevant in a world shaped by AI and digital infrastructure. The US competes through scale. China competes through speed and state coordination. Europe’s advantage lies elsewhere: in trust, institutional reliability, and the ability to produce high-quality, well-governed data. In a world flooded with data but short on reliability, Europe could position itself as the provider of a trusted information infrastructure. Europe has built scaffolding. But scaffolding is not architecture. The question now is whether it can turn that structure into something that works. – Center for European Policy Analysis