Fdd's overnight brief

February 5, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

President Trump called for the U.S. to take long-term control of Gaza and for nearly two million Palestinian residents to permanently leave for neighboring countries, a break with decades of U.S. policy that left the idea of a Palestinian state in tatters.- Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its support for an independent Palestinian state on Tuesday and said establishing diplomatic ties with Israel would depend on the creation of such a state, hours after President Trump proposed permanently moving all Palestinians out of Gaza and making it a U.S. territory. – New York Times

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday the government supported a two-state solution in the Middle East, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of plans to take over the Gaza Strip. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would support an effort to permanently resettle Palestinians from Gaza to places where they can live without fear of violence. – Reuters

The Palestinian Hamas movement is ready to establish contact and hold talks with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s RIA state news agency cited a senior Hamas official as saying in remarks published early on Wednesday. – Reuters

Talks have started on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, the spokesperson for the Palestinian militant group Hamas said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Jewish population in the West Bank grew at twice the rate of the general Israeli population last year, according to an advocacy group that hopes the Trump administration will support policies that help accelerate the growth of settlements in the occupied territory. – Associated Press

Trump administration officials say the five-year timeline laid out in later phases of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is too short, estimating the timeline will be at least twice that. – The Hill

Hundreds of convicted Palestinian terrorists set to be released from prison in Israel as part of the ceasefire and hostage exchange deal have reportedly received up to six figures through monthly salaries paid by the Palestinian Authority while they were in prison. – New York Sun

The five IDF surveillance soldiers recently released from captivity in the Gaza Strip were held hostage there by a senior member of Hamas’s military wing, according to a Tuesday report. – Times of Israel

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar on Tuesday opened Israel’s first embassy in Moldova, over 30 years after the two countries established diplomatic relations, the Foreign Ministry said. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The selective outrage of the international community reveals its hypocrisy. Human lives should be given the same value, irrespective of nationality. If the world truly cherishes human rights, then it needs to acknowledge that Hamas committed war crimes not only against Israelis but also against foreign nationals who had nothing to do with the conflict. It’s about telling their stories, setting the record straight about these foreign workers. What Hamas would want the world to believe is that it’s for Palestinian liberation, that its struggle is against Zionism and Israeli “occupation.” But that is far from the truth: Hamas is a terrorist organization; it massacres indiscriminately. – Jerusalem Post

Danny Danon writes: The fall of the Assad regime and a weaker Iran bring us closer to Saudi-Israeli normalization. Saudi Arabia has pursued an ambitious modernization plan in recent years and has shunned the kind of extremism we see in other parts of the Arab world. Normalizing relations with Israel is not just about trade agreements. It will lead to a groundbreaking strategic alignment in the Middle East that brings peace to all. Israel will never compromise on the safety and security of its people and borders, but it is a nation of peace and will encourage dialog with nations that seek cooperation over conflict. – Fox News

Tom Rogan writes: In turn, Trump’s suggestion of taking ownership of land that does not, in any historic or politically legitimate sense, belong to America is a grand gift for jihadist propaganda […]The better course for Trump is to endorse Israeli efforts to exert pressure on Hamas, secure remaining Israeli hostages, and secure regional buy-in for a post-Hamas governing structure in Gaza — a structure that matches Israeli security needs to the longer-term interest of a Palestinian territory defined by growing prosperity and hope rather than one defined by corruption and fanatical despair. – Washington Examiner

Lazar Berman writes: Moving Gazans to Arab countries might not work, but neither will ending the war while Hamas remains the strongest force in Gaza. New ideas are needed for Gaza, and for the Palestinian issue in general. Trump might be detached from reality in the region, but his willingness to move beyond decades-old failed ideas could open the debate to novel approaches to the Palestinian issue, a challenge in desperate need of creative solutions in the coming years. – Times of Israel

Einat Wilf writes: Israel has long been aware of the potential of Gaza. Now, for the first time, even the US appears to be becoming aware of its potential. But whether this latest proposal will produce real change, or simply become the latest entry on the roll call of past failures, will depend on whether the world has finally reached a point where it can see that the key to Gaza’s future is the demise of its corrosive politics—and the birth of a new vision based on building, stability, and prosperity. – Jerusalem Post

Gil Troy writes: Finally, shift from “two states for two peoples” – which keeps pressuring Israel to cede more territory – to “two democracies for two peoples.” That formula asks: how will Palestinians break their decades-long addiction to terrorism, negationism, and dictatorship, and start evolving toward a different culture, society, and politics, one focused more on building a Palestinian tomorrow than killing Jews today? Until Palestinians shift, embracing Palestinianism will still mean embracing anti-Zionist, antisemitic jihadism. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: Across the Middle East, Christians are under threat. Only in Israel does the community thrive. As the Islamic Republic of Iran represses minorities directly and by proxy, as Turkey alongside Azerbaijan promotes renewed genocide against Armenians, as Turkey-backed Islamists in Syria threaten the Armenian community of Aleppo, and as other Arab states like Egypt museumify religious minorities, Israel should stand firm in solidarity with Christians under fire. The Jewish state should be confident enough in its legitimacy, sovereignty, and moral high ground to celebrate the Old City’s diversity, rather than undertake any actions that could endanger it. Israel’s policy should be that the Armenian Quarter should remain Armenian, no ifs, ands, or buts. – American Enterprise Institute

Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday restored his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he would love to make a deal with Iran to improve bilateral relations, but added that Tehran should not develop a nuclear weapon. – Reuters

U.S. concerns about Iran developing nuclear weapons are not a complicated issue and can be resolved given Tehran’s opposition to weapons of mass destruction, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign policy is driven by dignity, wisdom and interest, a government spokesperson said on Wednesday, in response to U.S. President Donald Trump saying that Washington was ready to reach out to Tehran. – Reuters

Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracts about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), or around 3% of global output. – Reuters

Kamran Bokhari writes: Washington could leverage the Baku-Jerusalem relationship to contain Iranian geopolitical ambitions. Azerbaijan can serve as a key ally to keep Iran in check and maintain an important communication channel with Türkiye. While still a NATO ally, Ankara is seeking to establish itself as a regional player, and U.S.-Turkish interests will not always align despite there currently being considerable overlap regarding Iran. Therefore, it is in the American interest to foster a close relationship with the Azerbaijanis to maintain a balance of power in the broader region, especially as balancing Türkiye and the Gulf Arab states becomes increasingly important. – National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

For tens of millions of television viewers across Russia’s 11 time zones, Sunday night means tuning in to watch Dmitry Kiselyov […]There are breathless updates on Russia’s military advances, with cinematic shots of jet fighters pounding Ukrainian towns. Clips from pride parades in San Francisco are shown as evidence the U.S. verges on collapse. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump has indicated he is open to supplying Ukraine with more weapons in exchange for access to the country’s mineral resources. Ukraine is on board, but putting the plan into practice might not be so easy: Many of the minerals of greatest interest to the U.S. are in areas under Russian occupation or threatened by Moscow’s advance. – Wall Street Journal

Russia believes a settlement in the Middle East is only possible on the basis of a two-state solution, the Kremlin said on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would like the United States to take over and redevelop the Gaza Strip. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attack overnight sparked a fire at an oil depot in Russia’s southern region of Krasnodar that has since been extinguished, regional officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday his team spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser and his top envoy on the war in Ukraine this week, and that they were working to arrange a visit by a U.S. delegation. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a revival of the Soviet answer to the Eurovision Song Contest in an effort to counter what he says is the decadence of modern Western culture. – Reuters

Ukraine is studying the possibility of opening a logistics hub in Egypt for supplies of Ukrainian agricultural products to the region, agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine was prepared to engage in negotiations to end its nearly three-year-old war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, but he stressed that the United States and Europe also had to take part in any talks. – Reuters

An Azerbaijani passenger plane that crashed in December after being diverted from Russia to Kazakhstan was hit by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system, an Azerbaijani government source told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

The family of an American killed when a Malaysian Airlines plane was shot down over Ukraine in 2014 can sue Russia’s largest bank for allegedly providing money transfers to a group blamed for downing the plane, a U.S. appeals court ruled on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine has brought home 12 children who were forcefully taken by Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said. – Reuters

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will come to Moscow in May to attend the commemorations of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, TASS state news agency reported late on Tuesday, citing Palestinian envoy to Russia as saying. – Reuters

When Ukrainian soldiers captured two North Korean prisoners of war last month, it provided the first undeniable proof of Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the war against Ukraine. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump’s decision last week to freeze for 90 days the humanitarian aid that the United States provides to countries overseas was felt in places far from Washington, including here, a few kilometers from the front line in eastern Ukraine. – Associated Press

The head of the U.N. atomic watchdog said Tuesday he will visit Moscow in the coming days to speak with officials about Russia’s persistent attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure which threaten nuclear safety. – Associated Press

Russia’s birth rate has plunged to its lowest level since Vladimir Putin came to power, according to statistics that show the country’s growing demographic problem. – Newsweek

Russian forces have incurred high casualties in battles across the front lines against Ukraine since the start of the year, and they have not kept up the steady pace of advances that Moscow managed throughout 2024, according to new analysis. – Newsweek

Andrew Kosenko and Peter Liberman write: The economic costs of Putin’s war are clear, and even if it ends with Russian territorial gains, the occupation of Ukrainian lands emptied of their populations and ravaged by years of fighting offers little hope for their recuperation. Putin’s assault on southeastern Ukraine will reap only the spoilage of conquest, not its spoils, providing a cautionary lesson to other would-be expansionists. Even if Putin retains control there for the foreseeable future, he will hardly go down in history as winning Russia an economic and strategic prize. Far from it. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Anton Mardasov writes: Given the hybrid nature of modern warfare, however, in some ways it is actually advantageous for Russia to maintain strategic ambiguity in its relations with Libya while relying on a network of unofficial bases. The reluctance of Libyan elites to truly consolidate their power for fear of losing influence after holding elections is precisely the kind of “stable instability” that allows an outside power like Russia to maintain a local presence without formalizing state-to-state arrangements. – Middle East Institute

David Kirichenko writes: If Trump is serious about forcing Russia to negotiate, he will need greater leverage. While his administration has proposed using oil price reductions to pressure the Kremlin, supporting Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities on Russian refineries could be an even more effective strategy. By increasing pressure on Russia’s economy and military, decisive Western support could further shift the balance in Ukraine’s favor, ensuring that Kyiv negotiates from a position of strength […]With continued Western backing, Kyiv’s military innovations can continue to shape the battlefield, pressure Russia’s economy, and ensure that any future negotiations occur on more favorable terms with Ukraine. The ability to strike deep inside Russian territory will help weaken Russia where it hurts most by targeting its oil revenues and showing the naked the Kremlin truly is. – National Interest

Syria

Syria’s new interim leader, meeting on Tuesday with the president of Turkey, thanked him for backing the rebel forces that toppled the Assad dictatorship and said he now sought a deep strategic relationship that would benefit both their countries. – New York Times

Ahmed al-Sheikh’s excitement at returning to his homeland from neighbouring Turkey after the fall of Bashar al-Assad has turned to bitter disappointment at the grim living conditions in Syria after some 13 years of war. – Reuters

Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa said his government aims to restore ties with the United States in the coming days but has not yet had any contact with the Trump administration, according to an interview with The Economist. – Reuters

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he and Syria’s newly appointed president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, had discussed in Ankara on Tuesday steps to be taken against Kurdish militants in northeast Syria. – Reuters

Syrian transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa was discussing economic ties on a visit to Turkey on Tuesday, as Turkish transport and manufacturing firms eye big expansion plans for Syria in what some expect will be a tripling of trade. – Reuters

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish political party said on Tuesday that Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the PKK militant group, will make a “historic call” soon, amid a political effort to end its decades-long conflict with the Turkish state. – Reuters

Turkey is no stranger to political crackdowns. But a wave of arrests and investigations since the turn of the year, which ensnared national politicians, journalists, a celebrity agent and the mayor of Istanbul, have left some observers second guessing the motivations of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. – Bloomberg

Turkey’s defense exports totaled $7.1 billion in 2024, a significant increase from $5.5 billion in 2023, according to Haluk Görgün, president of the Defense Industry Agency. – Defense News

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman Corp’s defense systems to Egypt, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.N. Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced on Tuesday it had formed a committee to propose ways to resolve contentious issues hindering the holding of long-awaited national elections. – Reuters

Qatar’s prime minister said on Tuesday that his country would support Lebanese institutions and work on mutual projects after the formation of a Lebanese government. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that he was committed to peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia and that he believed he would succeed in achieving that goal. – Reuters

U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff says he will be meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Florida on Thursday. – Reuters

Fifteen Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel under the Jan. 19 ceasefire agreement with Hamas arrived in Turkey on Tuesday after being deported first to Egypt, the Turkish foreign minister and the Hamas prisoners media office said. – Reuters

Raphael Cohen-Almagor writes: After the first stage of the scheme is complete, lessons should be deduced, and then a further immigration deadline should be offered to new applicants who wish to immigrate on similar grounds, setting another capped quota. The entire scheme should be sponsored by the US and executed by Egypt and Jordan. As long as the scheme is based on communication and the consent of all relevant parties, then it is legitimate. Such relocation schemes should not be based on threats and coercion. – Jerusalem Post

Hanin Ghaddar writes: Forever weakening Hezbollah will still be a fraught process, and it could take years. But for once, the goal is attainable. Hezbollah has been reduced from an army to a militia. It is cut off from international support, and it is struggling to maintain domestic backing. The Lebanese Armed Forces are capable of ensuring order in ways that Hezbollah now can’t. If Lebanon’s leaders muster the political will, they can put the group in its place. The only question is whether they have what it takes. – Foreign Affairs

Korean Peninsula

A top South Korean military commander said on Tuesday he trusted President Yoon Suk Yeol to be making a legitimate decision when he declared martial law, but declined to say if the impeached leader gave orders to “drag” lawmakers out of parliament. – Reuters

A former South Korean defence minister charged with insurrection over his role in a short-lived martial law declaration has praised protesters who stormed a court over last month’s decision to extend President Yoon Suk Yeol’s detention. – Reuters

North Korea reopened its border city of Rason to foreign tourists for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began, marking a cautious revival of the country’s tourism sector. The first excursions are expected to start on February 18, ahead of the national holiday commemorating former leader Kim Jong Il’s birthday. – Jerusalem Post

China

China is a theme in President Trump’s first weeks in the White House, factoring into over a third of the more than 80 executive orders and key actions he has signed so far. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he is in no hurry to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to defuse a new trade war between the world’s two largest economies sparked by his sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump this week shut a trade loophole that has been used to ship low-value packages duty-free from China, the “de minimis” exemption on import tariffs. – Reuters

China has delayed imports of up to 600,000 metric tons of mostly Australian wheat and offered some of these cargoes to other buyers as ample domestic supplies reduce demand in the world’s top buyer of the grain, two trade sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters

The U.S. is discussing whether to add Chinese ecommerce retailers Shein and Temu to the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) ‘forced labor’ list, Semafor reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

The first volleys in the latest US-China trade war made clear that Xi Jinping is taking a more cautious approach than during Donald Trump’s first term. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump’s tariff hike on Chinese imports that took effect Tuesday could push the world’s second-largest economy “very close” to a recession, one analyst says, warning that the U.S. economy will also take a hit. – Newsweek

Satellite imagery discovered a new submarine in a Chinese shipyard as China, which has the world’s largest navy by hull count, expands and modernizes its naval fleet. – Newsweek

James Taranto writes: Almost any question that touches on Chinese politics produces one of three boilerplate responses: “helpful and harmless,” “beyond my current scope” or, after a long pause, “The server is busy. Please try again later.” I asked DeepSeek to tell me about several prominent dissidents. In each case, it generated a lengthy bio before replacing it with “beyond my current scope.” The same thing happened when I asked about the Chinese Communist Party, Falun Gong, Taiwan, the Uyghurs and Winnie-the-Pooh. The yellow bear who loves honey is censored in China because he looks like Xi Jinping. – Wall Street Journal

Dr Tim Sweijs and Ron Stoop write: As President Donald Trump moves back to the White House, the global situation is dire. A large-scale war rages on the European continent perpetrated by a revisionist and nuclear-armed Russia. In the Middle East, both allies, such as Israel, and adversaries, such as Iran, have spurred US demands to cease hostilities. Elsewhere, middle powers from Brazil and India to Indonesia have declined to follow US policies and priorities across different policy dossiers.  China’s assertiveness in the economic, political, and security realms has continued apace. In such a world, it is best to leverage your friendships to protect vital security interests. After all, the competition is with China, not with Europe.  – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lizzi C. Lee writes: For the Chinese Communist Party, the stakes are significant. Each “revenge on society” attack challenges the party’s carefully curated image of harmony and control, raising uncomfortable questions about deeper societal issues. These incidents may reflect growing disillusionment rooted in inequality, unmet expectations, and a weakening social compact—issues that cannot be addressed solely through surveillance and suppression. The party faces a stark choice. It can double down on its control tactics, risking further alienation, or it can confront the uncomfortable truths behind these crises […]Yet Xi’s administration has shown little appetite for meaningful change. Stability, for now, means preserving the status quo, even as cracks in the system continue to widen. – Foreign Affairs

South Asia

A U.N. aid official said on Tuesday that a U.S. funding pause would cut off millions of Afghans from sexual and reproductive health services, and the continued absence of this support could cause over 1,000 maternal deaths in Afghanistan from 2025 to 2028. – Reuters

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers will stay united despite enemies’ efforts to create divisions among the movement’s leaders and the people, a spokesman said, ruling out the prospect of conflict or war stemming from differences of opinion. – Reuters

India’s finance ministry has asked its employees to avoid using AI tools including ChatGPT and DeepSeek for official purposes, citing risks posed to confidentiality of government documents and data, an internal department advisory showed. – Reuters

The death toll from a gas tanker truck explosion that happened last week in central Pakistan has jumped to 18, police and hospital officials said on Tuesday. – Associated Press

India’s capital holds local elections Wednesday, in a crucial test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi whose party has failed to wrestle control of Delhi from a small but formidable rival for over a decade now. – Bloomberg

Asia

Gender equality will become central to Australia’s foreign policy, diplomacy, trade and aid programmers under a new international strategy, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Wednesday in Canberra. – Reuters

A petition seeking the impeachment of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of the country’s former president, received the required support on Wednesday of more than a third of lower-house lawmakers, paving the way for a trial in the Senate. – Reuters

The Georgian government is pushing forward with a legislative package that would increase penalties for protest-related offences – in some cases to many years in prison – as the South Caucasus country grapples with a protracted political crisis. – Reuters

Singapore has passed a law designed to protect against foreign interference in its race-based clans and business associations, as the government looks to limit outsiders from undermining racial harmony in the multicultural city-state. – Reuters

At least five prisoners who supported Islamic State were killed after attacking guards with knives and trying to break out of a jail in Tajikistan, a law enforcement source said. – Reuters

East Timor would prefer to work with Australia and partners Woodside Energy and Japan’s Osaka Gas over Chinese firms that have expressed interest in developing the stalled Greater Sunrise natural gas field, its president said. – Reuters

Indonesia has handed over to French authorities a man on death row for drug offences who will start his return to his home country late on Tuesday, the latest in a series of foreign drug convicts repatriated from the Southeast Asian nation. – Reuters

Malaysia’s Attorney General’s Chambers is seeking to block jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s court bid to serve the remainder of his 1MDB-linked prison sentence at home. – Bloomberg

A fleet of three Russian naval vessels, including two missile-armed warships, was spotted sailing near Japan’s territory on Monday during its deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. – Newsweek

Anthony Borden writes: The EU has condemned Georgia’s October election and withdrawn visa-free travel for party elites. It has also suspended aid, including 30 million euros it earlier committed for military reform. And the U.S. has imposed sanctions on key figures within the Georgian government, including Ivanishvili. But Georgia’s would-be autocrats appear to be undaunted. So far, police have avoided charges for beating demonstrators, while cultural figures and protesters face long prison sentences for minor infractions. – The Atlantic

Europe

While President Trump threatens to place tariffs on Western allies, including Canada and the European Union, he said this week that U.S. trade with the U.K., although out of line, can be worked out. British officials are hopeful the country can stay off his tariff target list. – Wall Street Journal

Polls show the AfD, short for Alternative for Germany, could more than double its score at the coming election and deliver its best national performance since its creation 12 years ago, driven by frustration about Germany’s economic slump, immigration and crime. – Wall Street Journal

A shooting at an adult education campus in central Sweden on Tuesday left at least 10 people dead and injured an undisclosed number of others, in what the prime minister called the worst mass shooting in the country’s history. – New York Times

Greenland’s Parliament banned foreign and anonymous political funding on Tuesday, in the semiautonomous island’s latest reaction to President Trump’s stated intentions to acquire it. Greenland’s lawmakers fast-tracked the law — an effort to protect against outside interference — before upcoming parliamentary elections. – New York Times

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) and the conservative People’s Party (OVP) denied on Tuesday their talks on forming a coalition government had collapsed after media reports of a halt, but the OVP said they were in a “difficult phase”. – Reuters

Employers will be banned from using artificial intelligence to track their staff’s emotions and websites will not be allowed to use it to trick users into spending money under EU AI guidelines announced on Tuesday. – Reuters

Belgium’s new Prime Minister Bart De Wever presented his government’s focus to parliament on Tuesday, highlighting stricter migration policies, reversing the nuclear phase-out law, and increasing defence spending to meet NATO targets. – Reuters

Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg returned to government in his native Norway as finance minister on Tuesday, months before a national election. – Associated Press

Poland is NATO’s top military spender for two reasons: to keep America close and Russia at bay, Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told POLITICO. – Politico

Italy’s defense chief has challenged Leonardo and Rheinmetall to deliver a massive, €23 billion ($24 billion) order of tanks and fighting vehicles as quickly as possible to get Italy ready for an increasingly dangerous world. – Defense News

Tunku Varadarajan writes: The present-day ideology of radical Islam is no less a threat to the Jews than the Nazis were. If anything, the language and deeds of jihadists are more explicit in their genocidal aspirations than the Nazis were in the 1930s. The epicenter for that intent is the regime in Tehran. Its lust, and that of its fellow travelers, for Jewish blood was revealed anew on Oct. 7, 2023. As we stand atop the ruins of the German Reich at Auschwitz, so too must we, one day, stand atop the ruins of a vanquished Islamist Iranian empire. – Wall Street Journal

Bartosz Cichocki writes: This is not a game for Poland. It is a matter of the utmost gravity. Ukraine is a friendly, democratic state seeking the freedoms that Poland won through its heroic struggles in the 1980s and before. Russia is a hostile despotism that seeks to once again cast its hateful shadow over the dreams of its neighbors. Putin’s victory would be a disaster for democracy in Central and Eastern Europe […]Poland is aware of the alternative to Ukrainian statehood. It would mean Russian troops on almost all of our eastern border from Belarus southward. It would mean a new East Germany in the heart of Europe. It would mean that Poland had become the main frontline state against the Kremlin’s despotic expansionism once again. We simply cannot allow that to happen. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Africa

Uganda’s police have detained nine finance ministry officials as part of an investigation into accusations of hacking the central bank’s electronic systems that resulted in theft of 62 billion shillings ($16.87 million), the ministry and police said. – Reuters

Six people were killed and 38 injured in a strike by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on a hospital in Omdurman, the health ministry in Khartoum province said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Uganda has deployed more than 1,000 extra soldiers into east Congo in the last week near an area where the Kinshasa government is fighting M23 rebels, four diplomatic and U.N. sources said, heightening fears of a regional escalation. – Reuters

Rebels in eastern Congo’s largest city, Goma, began a ceasefire on Tuesday and people rushed to bury some 2,000 victims of last week’s battles for the city as they feared the spread of disease. – Reuters

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke to Elon Musk on the subject of misinformation about South Africa, the presidency said on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would suspend aid to the country over its land reform policy. – Reuters

Congo’s government on Tuesday described the unilateral ceasefire declared by Rwanda-backed rebels in eastern Congo as “false communication,” while the United Nations noted reports of heavy fighting with Congolese forces in the region. – Associated Press

A group of 64 organizations mainly from the Democratic Republic of Congo sent a letter asking the European Union to cancel a critical minerals partnership with Rwanda because of its support for a rebel group in eastern Congo. – Bloomberg

The Americas

President Trump said on Tuesday that he was open to an offer by El Salvador’s president to jail convicted criminals, including American citizens, in the Central American nation’s notorious “megaprison.” – New York Times

Residents of Colombia’s troubled Catatumbo region, near the eastern border with Venezuela, are weighing whether to return home after attacks by a rebel group displaced at least 50,000 people over several weeks. – Reuters

President Bukele, who labels himself as the “coolest dictator” and a “philosopher king,” has built election success and immense popularity on an extreme security policy to combat gang violence in El Salvador, incarcerating large quantities of alleged gang members and securing a massive drop in homicides. – Reuters

More than $13 million in U.S. funding for an international security force helping fight armed gangs in Haiti has been frozen under President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on foreign aid, the United Nations said on Tuesday. – Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to travel to Panama in April, his Panamanian counterpart said on Tuesday, with the two officials aiming to work together on strategies to combat irregular migration and the flow of drugs. – Reuters

Heavily armed gangs in Haiti have attacked a neighborhood that’s home to most of the country’s elite and had been largely untouched by criminals, and police have demanded help repelling the assault that has killed at least 40 people. – Associated Press

Panama is weighing whether to cancel its contract with the Hong Kong-based company that operates ports near the Panama Canal, according to people with knowledge of the situation, a potential concession to defuse President Donald Trump’s threats about countering China’s influence around the key waterway. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Panama must also clamp down on organized crime, which exacerbates migration to the U.S. and causes regional instability generally. The U.S. Embassy’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement has provided $12 million in recent years to help Panama fight organized crime, which includes drug trafficking in the country that serves as a transit point for drugs that eventually arrive in North America. To win this battle, Mulino must also tackle deep-seated corruption in the Panamanian government, which is no small task. Increased security cooperation and enhanced economic ties between the U.S. and Panama are crucial components of maintaining U.S. leadership in the Western hemisphere and beyond. Rubio’s mission to achieve this is a good start, but the real work has only just begun. – Washington Examiner

Eugene Kontorovich writes: When Panama received the canal, it agreed to the condition that the U.S. would have considerable discretion to intervene over perceived threats to the neutrality of the waterway. Panama also knew that Carter wouldn’t always be the president. The U.S. has the right to use military force, but Mr. Trump shouldn’t resort to this option lightly. Under diplomatic pressure from Messrs. Trump and Rubio, Mr. Mulino promised on Sunday not to renew Panama’s Belt and Road agreement with China and “study the possibility of terminating it early.” While this falls far short of addressing the Trump administration’s concerns, it may be an early sign that Panama will also be open to ending its contracts with the Chinese companies operating around the canal. – Wall Street Journal

North America

As part of her deal with President Trump to stave off steep tariffs on Mexico for a month, President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged to send 10,000 additional members of the country’s National Guard to the border to “prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl.” – New York Times

The first U.S. military aircraft carrying detained migrants to Guantanamo Bay departed on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, as President Donald Trump’s administration prepares to potentially house tens of thousands of migrants at the naval base in Cuba. – Reuters

Mexico will not allow the United States to send Mexican migrants to Guantanamo Bay and prefers to receive them directly instead, Mexico’s foreign minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Top Mexican officials said on Tuesday they were confident that Mexico could reach an agreement with the U.S. before threatened tariffs are due to take effect, with the U.S. demanding progress on fighting the flow of drugs and migrants to the shared border. – Reuters

Peter Navarro, senior trade adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, said Mexico had been “very cooperative” on efforts to crack down on the influx of fentanyl into the U.S., and Canada had started to understand that it needed to do more. – Reuters

There are at least six Americans wrongfully held in prison in Venezuela, U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell said on Monday, three days after returning to the U.S. from Venezuela having secured the release of six other Americans. – Reuters

Matina Stevis-Gridneff and James Wagner write: She, too, secured a 30-day reprieve for Mexico in exchange for border and fentanyl measures, most of which, like in the case of Canada, had been part of existing plans. “We have this month to work, to convince each other that this is the best way forward,” Ms. Sheinbaum said at her regular morning news conference after speaking to President Trump. Suggesting that she might be able hold off the penalties altogether, she said she had told her American counterpart: “We are going to deliver results. Good results for your people, good results for the Mexican people.” As for Mr. Trudeau, when the 30-day reprieve lapses, he will be in his last week in office. – New York Times

United States

The United States Postal Service announced Tuesday that it had temporarily stopped accepting packages from China and Hong Kong, hours after an order by President Trump took effect that ended duty-free handling of many smaller parcels. – New York Times

The Trump administration on Tuesday announced that it was going to put on leave all directly hired employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development globally and recall thousands of personnel working overseas. – Reuters

The Republican-led U.S. Senate confirmed Pam Bondi as the new U.S. attorney general on Tuesday, propelling one of President Donald Trump’s staunchest political allies to the top perch of American law enforcement. – Reuters

A neo-Nazi leader accused of plotting to attack Baltimore’s power grid has been found guilty of conspiring to damage an energy facility, the U.S. Justice Department said on Tuesday. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the United Nations on Tuesday as “not being well run,” although he said it has potential, while he stopped U.S. engagement with the U.N. Human Rights Council, extended a halt to funding for the Palestinian relief agency UNRWA and ordered a review of the U.N. cultural agency UNESCO. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman visits India this week as his company fights off a major copyright lawsuit in its second-largest market — yet another legal headache for the creator of ChatGPT as it seeks to cement itself as the global leader in artificial intelligence. – Washington Post

Australia has banned DeepSeek from all government devices over concerns that the Chinese artificial intelligence startup poses security risks, the government said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Chinese companies, from chip makers to cloud service providers, are rushing to support DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence models, spurring analysts to hail a “watershed moment” for the industry. – Reuters

U.S. prosecutors on Tuesday unveiled an expanded 14-count indictment accusing former Google software engineer Linwei Ding of stealing artificial intelligence trade secrets to benefit two Chinese companies he was secretly working for. – Reuters

Ofcom, Britain’s media regulator, on Tuesday closed its investigation into whether people under the age of 18 are accessing OnlyFans, but said it will continue to probe whether the adults-only website failed to provide complete and accurate information when requested. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance will attend a two-day high-level summit focusing on artificial intelligence in Paris next week and the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany in his first scheduled trip abroad since taking office. – Associated Press

Alphabet, the parent company of technology giant Google, is no longer promising that it will never use artificial intelligence (AI) for purposes such as developing weapons and surveillance tools. – BBC

Elon Musk and employees from DOGE — which is, legally, an external advisory board — have reportedly taken a number of steps since Jan. 20 that could be exposing the personal data of millions of federal employees, violating federal laws against sharing classified or sensitive information with uncleared individuals and creating new cybersecurity vulnerabilities for malicious hackers to exploit, these experts say. – Cyberscoop

Russian cybersecurity companies released multiple research reports about specific threats over the last week, including one about a “large-scale” information-stealing campaign targeting local organizations with Nova malware. – The Record

Defense

The Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to its entire workforce Tuesday, in what officials said is a bid to bring the agency in line with President Trump’s priorities, including targeting drug cartels. – Wall Street Journal

The Marine Corps has passed an audit for the second year in a row, the only military service to do so, the branch announced Tuesday. – The Hill

The U.S. Navy successfully tested its High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance, or HELIOS, system on one of its warships in fiscal 2024, according to a recently released report. – Defense News

A recent report from the Pentagon’s test office found the F-35 program is still struggling to develop and test software, highlighting persistent challenges. – Defense One

The Army is on the hunt for zero trust capabilities to ensure its data is secure in tactical network architectures, according to a request for information published Monday. – Breaking Defense

U.S. national security told DefenseScoop they’re optimistic that President Donald Trump will prioritize new and existing disclosure pursuits during his second term. – Defencescoop

Long War

President Trump wants to deploy a blunt new tool to fight Mexican cartels that flood the U.S. with drugs, by adding them to a list of terrorist groups that includes the likes of al Qaeda and Hamas. – Wall Street Journal

The trial of the man charged with attempting to murder the novelist Salman Rushdie at a New York lecture began on Tuesday with jury selection. – Reuters

Precision airstrikes led by Iraqi security forces (ISF) killed five Islamic State (ISIS) operatives near Iraq’s Kirkuk on Jan. 31, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said in an X post on Tuesday. – Reuters