Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Netanyahu urges US envoy to be skeptical of Iran in revived nuclear talks Middle East Forum’s Amine Ayoub: Gaza's 'technocratic shield': Governance is a survival tactic for Hamas Iran’s killing of protesters reached level rarely seen, emergent count shows Iran risks Trump's ire with new diplomatic demands, provocations Bahai activists say Iran intensifying persecution of community in wake of protests Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies’ Hillel Frisch: Iran’s empty skies reveal the hidden cost of US sanctions, pressure Russia resumes strikes on Ukrainian energy sites WSJ Editorial: Vladimir Putin isn’t winning in Ukraine Bloomberg’s James Stavridis: Xi’s military purge might be dangerous for the US Taiwan doubles down on U.S. partnership, even as America's alliances fray US military says some forces have been dispatched to Nigeria After months of insults, Trump’s meeting with Colombian president ends in detenteIn The News
Israel
Emboldened by a temporary cease-fire in January 2025, the Hamas militants who had been standing guard over four Israel hostages decided it was safe to emerge into the sunlight and leave just one of them at a time in charge in the tunnel. That left the hostages at the mercy of a temperamental captor they had nicknamed Amon, said one of the Israelis, Guy Gilboa-Dalal. – New York Times
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on Tuesday amid efforts to revive diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme that Tehran was unlikely to honor any potential agreement. – Reuters
A World Health Organization official said on Tuesday that the first five patients were transferred through Gaza’s Rafah crossing with Egypt, which reopened on Monday. – Reuters
Somaliland expects to reach a trade agreement soon with Israel, the first country to recognise its independence, and is willing to offer rights to valuable mineral deposits as part of a deal, its leader said in an interview with Reuters. – Reuters
An IDF reserve officer was severely wounded on Tuesday night during routine operational activity near the yellow line in northern Gaza, after terrorists opened fire on troops, the military confirmed on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
An illegal resident from the West Bank was arrested earlier this week on suspicion of preparing explosives and carrying out “additional terror activity” targeting IDF soldiers, Israel Police said on Tuesday night. – Jerusalem Post
UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers patrolling near the Israel-Lebanon border took “defensive measures” against two drones observing them, the peacekeeping force said in a series of posts to X/Twitter on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post
Supreme Court President Isaac Amit on Tuesday delegated to his deputy the authority to determine the members of the expanded judicial panel set to hear petitions demanding the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023. – Times of Israel
An IDF reservist was severely injured in northern Gaza, after Hamas terrorists violated the ceasefire agreement. “IDF: Earlier tonight (Wednesday), during routine operational activity near the Yellow Line in the northern Gaza Strip, terrorists opened fire on IDF troops,” the IDF announced. – Arutz Sheva
The allegation of aiding the enemy during wartime, leveled against Bezalel Zini — the brother of Shin Bet chief David Zini — marks a significant escalation in how Israeli authorities are treating the growing phenomenon of smuggling into the Gaza Strip. – Ynet
Amine Ayoub writes: The committee is explicitly subordinated to a military authority mandated to achieve the full disarmament of all Palestinian factions, every dollar of reconstruction aid is a potential investment in the next conflict. The technocratic shield must be dismantled, and the administrative transition must be made conditional on the verified destruction of every tunnel and the surrender of every weapon. To do otherwise is to accept a Bosnian-style semi-protectorate where the terrorists remain the masters of the house while the world pays for the repairs. – Ynet
Ilan I. Berman writes: All of which means that Israel’s growing connections to Somaliland could propel it and the UAE into even deeper alignment, giving both countries greater ability to ensure stability in Yemen and security in the Red Sea. The strategic logic underpinning Israel’s outreach to Somaliland, in other words, is compelling. It simultaneously provides the country with a strategic foothold opposite Yemen, greater proximity to the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, a deeper stake in Red Sea security, and the potential to become a much bigger player in African politics. For those reasons, Israel’s newest partnership is well positioned to endure. – National Institute for Public Policy
Iran
For a few hours Tuesday, two Iranian provocations against the U.S. raised questions as to whether nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington could be derailed. But negotiations are still expected this week, U.S. officials say, keeping diplomacy on the table even as President Trump amasses a military force in the Middle East and issues threats against Iran. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s sweeping crackdown on anti-government demonstrations left more than 6,800 people dead, the vast majority of them protesters killed last month, according to an advocacy organization tracking and confirming the fatalities. The level of violence against protesters has few recent parallels, human rights groups say. – Washington Post
Talks with the U.S. should be pursued to secure national interests as long as “threats and unreasonable expectations” are avoided, President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X on Tuesday. – Reuters
Iranian police said 139 foreign nationals have so far been arrested in the central province of Yazd for their participation in recent protests, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Tuesday, without specifying their nationalities. – Reuters
U.S. investigators are examining whether specific crypto platforms have facilitated sanctions evasion by Iranian officials, a blockchain researcher told Reuters, as cryptocurrency activity booms in the Islamic Republic. – Reuters
Iran has demanded changes to the venue and format for negotiations with the U.S. this Friday, two sources with knowledge tell Axios. – Axios
Iran is stepping up persecution of the Bahai, the country’s largest non-Muslim religious minority, in the crackdown launched during protests that rocked the Islamic Republic, community representatives said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse
While the European Parliament last week voted in favor of designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, dismantling Tehran’s deeply embedded networks across Europe will be a formidable task, security experts warned The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: The protesters begged for help because they believed Trump’s warnings. They renamed their streets because they thought American power would protect them, and they were slaughtered anyway. Now, Trump is prepared to sit and deal with this regime. As it stands, he has betrayed the Iranian people, and they are unlikely to ever forgive him for this. But it’s not too late. President Trump, topple this regime. – Jerusalem Post
Marc Champion writes: Or, to put that more crudely, Trump has found himself holding Thor’s hammer in the form of US military prowess and he’s in search of nails. The question is whether the kind of face-saving nuclear deal Khamenei’s envoys might be willing to make will satisfy the US president, or whether — having committed this much firepower to the region — he sets the bar too high and has to pull the trigger, without worrying about what comes next. – Bloomberg
Joseph Bosco writes: Trump encouraged the protests not only to continue but to escalate; his failure to deliver on his promise of support contributed to the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. Trump cannot bring back the Iranian protesters who died relying on his assurance that “Help is on the way,” but he can still bring to fruition the cause for which they sacrificed their lives and end the regime. Hopefully, U.S. forces converging on the region have that as their mission. and Trump will demonstrate that his actions, in this case, do match his words. – The Hill
Hillel Frisch writes: Nevertheless, an economic downturn, coupled with a potential military blow, as the buildup suggests, could engender a wave of protest greater than the present wave, which the regime suppressed. Such a wave might not threaten the regime directly, but it could create rifts within Iran’s ruling elite and misgivings about engaging in massive killings amongst the regime’s security personnel. – Jerusalem Post
Amine Ayoub writes: By declaring war on the West’s collective security, Tehran has inadvertently simplified the map. The choice is no longer between engagement and pressure. The choice is between the survival of a terrorist theocracy and the survival of a free Iran. It is time for Brussels to stop acting like a middleman and start acting like an ally. The Third Way is buried in the streets of Tehran. – Arutz Sheva
Russia and Ukraine
Russia launched its biggest aerial assault of the year on Ukraine, ending a pause on strikes on Ukraine’s energy systems and dealing another blow to the country during some of the winter’s coldest days. – Wall Street Journal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine was waiting for U.S. reaction to Russia’s overnight attack on his country’s cities that caused further damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. – Reuters
The work of Ukraine’s negotiating team will be adjusted after Russia’s overnight attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, which involved a record number of ballistic missiles, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday. – Reuters
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has arrived in Kyiv and will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a Financial Times correspondent said in a post on X. – Reuters
On the edge of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, volunteers ladle hot soup into plastic containers as residents wrapped in heavy coats queue for a meal they cannot cook at home. Yuliia Dolotova, a mother of two, is among them, waiting with her 18-month-old son, Bohdanchyk, bundled in layers against the biting cold. – Associated Press
Ukraine fears it can’t rely on security guarantees from its allies in any potential peace deal, and so must be ready to stand alone as a “steel porcupine” to ensure that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won’t return for another attack. – Politico
Ukraine has agreed with western partners that persistent Russian violations of any future ceasefire agreement would be met by a co-ordinated military response from Europe and the US, according to people briefed on the discussions. – Financial Times
Editorial: The same Mr. Trump who arms his diplomacy with Iran to increase his leverage has been oddly unwilling to do the same with Mr. Putin. But a weak peace would let Mr. Putin “up off the mat,” as GOP Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker put it last year. The Russian would rearm with a renewed animus for NATO. Mr. Putin isn’t the unstoppable man he wants Mr. Trump to think he is. The question of the past year has been whether President Trump will see this strategic opening to reduce the Russian threat to the U.S., and deter the world’s bad actors in Beijing and elsewhere, by driving a harder bargain in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal
Alexander Crowther and Jahara ‘Franky’ Matisek write: Viewed narrowly, our proposed operations center is a tool to protect Ukraine. Viewed correctly, it is the embryo of a continental defense revolution. It would be the first, indispensable step toward building a unified, multi-domain shield capable of deterring and responding to Russian aggression. European leaders must drive this new era of defense integration. – Center For European Policy Analysis
Matthew Zalewski writes: Russia’s structural subordination will enter its consolidation phase following the war in Ukraine. Its political-economic weakness, isolation, and the regime’s survival prioritized over geopolitical independence will become further catalysts for dependence. Russia will seek economic and technological alternatives to China where possible, but its ability to scale these links means alternatives will be limited for some time. A “reverse Nixon” policy risks empowering a regime that is already within the Chinese orbit. – War on the Rocks
Syria
Syrian government security forces entered the Kurdish-controlled northeastern city of Qamishli on Tuesday, security sources and witnesses said, implementing a U.S.-backed deal to bring Kurdish-run regions back under central government control. – Reuters
Lebanon’s relationship with Syria is “radically different” since the fall of former President Bashar Assad, the senior Lebanese minister tasked with managing the country’s relations with its neighbor said on Tuesday. – Associated Press
An all-female Kurdish militia that led the fight against Islamic State (IS) is refusing to lay down its arms against pro-government forces in Syria. – The Telegraph
Saudi Arabia
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan met Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday and told him Turkey was determined to take relations to a higher level in areas including renewable energy and defence industry, Erdogan’s office said. – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, saying they had agreed to deepen cooperation in the political, economic, trade and humanitarian spheres. – Reuters
The US State Department has approved a potential $3 billion sale of F-15 aircraft sustainment and related equipment to Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon said in a statement on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Chama Mechtaly writes: If the UAE is punished and abandoned for having defended that premise, the lesson transmitted across the region will be corrosive. It will teach that choosing peace with Jews is a liability rather than a foundation for progress. If Israelis and Americans do not stand publicly and decisively with the UAE now, they will reinforce that lesson, and they will invite the next campaign to target not just a partner, but the possibility of peace itself for decades to come, everywhere. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, a politician and a son of the deposed dictator Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, was killed on Tuesday in an attack at his home in western Libya, according to his lawyer and a political adviser. – New York Times
The United Arab Emirates on Tuesday pledged to donate $500 million to a U.N. fund for humanitarian aid for Sudan, amid a U.S. push to renew efforts towards a truce in the conflict that has devastated the country. – Reuters
A Tunisian appeal court on Tuesday upheld and increased lengthy prison sentences on high-profile politicians, including opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi and former security officials, as part of a crackdown on dissent. – Reuters
Iraq’s former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, nominated by a powerful alliance of Shi’ite political parties to return to the premiership, said on Tuesday that he would welcome a decision to replace his candidacy. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
South Korea’s top diplomat met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the country scrambles to avoid a threatened US tariff hike to 25% while lawmakers in Seoul prepare to review a special bill required to implement funding pledged as part of last year’s trade agreement. – Bloomberg
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivered an unusually stark warning against real estate speculation, urging multi-homeowners to consider “the blood and tears of millions of young people” unable to buy homes due to runaway prices. – Bloomberg
Christopher Cytera writes: Korea’s position as a US‑aligned democracy with deep integration into American and European tech ecosystems makes it a trusted ally in both design and manufacturing. US cloud providers, chip designers, and defense contractors rely on Korean chips. Korea diversifies supply, reducing dependence on Taiwan. The US cannot go at it alone in semiconductors. It needs Korea. – Center for European Policy Analysis
China
Since taking the reins of the world’s most populous superpower nearly 14 years ago, Xi Jinping has ravaged the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party. – New York Times
Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison (0001.HK), said on Wednesday its Panama Ports Company unit has started international arbitration proceedings against Panama after the country’s top court annulled its licences to operate two Panama Canal ports, in a case that could take years to resolve. – Reuters
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) late on Tuesday condemned the detention of two independent Chinese journalists, one a prominent investigative reporter, after they published a story alleging corruption by a local official in southwestern China. – Reuters
James Stavridis writes: Third, the removal of Liu is particularly hurtful to top-level level dialogue. He was the figure within senior Chinese ranks seen as most willing to interact at the strategic level with his peers in the US and other Western militaries. His ouster means the PLA and China itself are likely to become more isolated. If Xi compiles a senior military cadre that lacks any independence of thought and is unable to have strategic conversations with counterparts, the odds of unintended conflict go up. Normally, an admiral like me applauds the downfall of difficult, highly competent officers manning the opponent’s barricades. In this case, however, I see danger ahead. – Bloomberg
South Asia
President Trump said India is going to stop buying Russian oil. Such a move—which would have profound effects on global crude trading—is easier said than done. The world’s most populous nation became addicted to cheap Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. The West shunned Russian energy and India was happy to snap it up—at a big discount to oil from other sources. – Wall Street Journal
The authorities in Nepal have arrested six people in a crackdown on an elaborate helicopter rescue scam in which mountain rescue companies carried out hundreds of unnecessary evacuations of climbers from Mount Everest and other peaks to bilk insurance companies out of millions of dollars. – New York Times
Pakistan’s security forces used drones and helicopters to wrest control of a southwestern town from separatist insurgents after a three-day battle, police said on Wednesday, as the death toll in the weekend’s violence rose to 58. – Reuters
Pakistan is in talks to open a consulate in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, as the leader of the Libyan National Army met Pakistan’s prime minister in Islamabad. – Reuters
A proxy party for Myanmar’s junta was declared the “landslide” winner of elections that were derided as illegitimate by the United Nations and others, helping the military keep its grip on the war-ravaged country. – Bloomberg
In early September, shortly after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a chummy meeting with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China, he dispatched his national security adviser to Washington to help smooth over fraying ties. – Bloomberg
The divisive new penal code introduced by the Taliban, which has reintroduced the legal recognition of slavery in Afghanistan and further limits the power and autonomy of women and minorities, is just the latest move in the terror group’s quest to turn Kabul into a haven for Islamist terror groups, an expert told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Andy Mukherjee writes: However, for them — and Modi’s urban middle-class supporters — the draw of the US talent market remains undimmed by the surge in Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns. With Indians accounting for 70% of H-1B work visas, any concession from Trump on the $100,000 fee per new employee will play well for Modi at home, provided he has managed to swing it. – Bloomberg
Asia
Many of America’s longtime trade and security partners, contending with a new era of uncertain U.S. relations, have looked to hedge their reliance on Washington, in some cases warming up to Beijing. For Taiwan, as with other U.S. security partners in Asia, giving up on America isn’t an option. – Wall Street Journal
Passersby stopped Thailand’s former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva every now and again to ask for selfies as the salt-and-pepper-haired leader walked through a bustling market in Bangkok, campaigning for general elections on February 8. – Reuters
Vietnam is willing to increase purchases of U.S. goods, especially machinery and high‑tech products, its trade minister said on Wednesday, as the Southeast Asian nation began a sixth round of tariff negotiations in Washington this week. – Reuters
Kyrgyzstan said on Tuesday the European Union’s sanctions envoy would visit on February 26 after a report that the EU was planning to ban some exports to the Central Asian country for allegedly facilitating Russian sanctions evasion. – Reuters
A Japanese man has appealed against his life sentence for fatally shooting former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a district court spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters
A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression” and considered the United States a “belligerent” power, according to a report released Tuesday. – Associated Press
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is planning to travel to Australia this month to clinch a security and trade deal, according to a person familiar with the talks. – Politico
Lin Chia-lung writes: Value-added diplomacy has become Taiwan’s new foreign affairs cornerstone. When the world asks, “Why is Taiwan so important?” we have a clear answer: by working with Taiwan, allies and like-minded democratic countries will not only find common ground. They will also stand to gain things they cannot access elsewhere: added security, more prosperity, and vital knowledge about democratic resilience. Whether Taiwan’s allies and partners are more focused on values or interests, Taiwan can help. – Foreign Affairs
Masashi Murano writes: In parallel, Japan and its partners should consider offensive air defense options beyond fighter aircraft, including ultra-long-range surface-to-air missiles with ranges exceeding 900 kilometers. Until now, Tokyo has sought reassurance that Washington would extend a helping hand in times of crisis. From this point forward, Japan must extend its own hand to the latter and offer that reassurance in return. To do so, Japan must take the initiative in shaping an environment that makes continued US engagement in the region a reasonable choice in light of American national interests. – Japan Forward
Europe
Polish authorities arrested a Defense Ministry official Tuesday for allegedly spying on behalf of Russia and Belarus, officials said, in one of the highest-profile espionage cases to come to light inside the Polish government. – Wall Street Journal
The European Commission said it is investigating whether Chinese wind-turbine company Goldwind received foreign backing that would give it an unfair advantage in the European Union. – Wall Street Journal
A new poll shows 76% of Greenlanders say they wouldn’t benefit from becoming part of the U.S., noting their concerns about exchanging the Danish welfare system for American healthcare, elder care and education. – Wall Street Journal
For the authorities charged with securing the Winter Olympics, which begin this week in northern Italy, a gold medal moment will come even before the competitions begin in earnest. – New York Times
Marius Borg Hoiby, the eldest son of Norway’s crown princess, went on trial on Tuesday on charges including rape, assault and filming women without their consent. – New York Times
Germany is weighing investments ranging from spy satellites and space planes to offensive lasers under a 35 billion euro ($41 billion) military space spending plan aimed at countering growing threats from Russia and China in orbit, the country’s space commander said. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump recognised the “strategic importance” of the U.S.-UK air base in the Chagos Archipelago and will work closely to guarantee its operation, Downing Street said on Tuesday. – Reuters
French prosecutors on Tuesday requested a five-year ban on running for public office for far-right leader Marine Le Pen in her appeal trial over the misuse of European Union funds, but said this should not be enforced immediately. – Reuters
Hungary’s centre-right Tisza party leads Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s governing Fidesz party before an April 12 election, and the far-right Our Homeland party is on course to enter parliament, according to an opinion poll published on Tuesday. – Reuters
Former army general Roberto Vannacci quit the League group, part of Italy’s governing coalition, on Tuesday to set up his own far-right party, potentially complicating Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s hopes of winning re-election next year. – Reuters
The European Union will pitch the US on a critical minerals partnership to curb China’s influence, looking to shape the Trump administration’s push to strike global agreements this week. – Bloomberg
The European Union is pressing ahead with talks to grant United States border authorities unprecedented access to Europeans’ data, despite growing concerns about American surveillance. – Politico
Friedrich Merz embarks on his first trip to the Persian Gulf region as chancellor on Wednesday in search of new energy and business deals he sees as critical to reducing Germany’s dependence on the U.S. and China. – Politico
The new youth wing of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has clear “continuity” with its defunct predecessor, which was classified as right-wing extremist, the interior ministry said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse
Two young Swedes were sentenced to jail terms Tuesday for throwing grenades at Israel’s embassy in Denmark over a year ago. – Agence France-Presse
Niccolò Comini writes: The EU’s current defense-related work is critical, he said. “The EU has laid the groundwork for cooperation, and more importantly, vital financing. Without such funding, the Italian budget would not be able to support increased military funding, leaving it less impactful in an ad-hoc military alliance.” Any new European defense arrangement will be extremely difficult to agree. But given it now seems far likelier that the US is pulling back, Italy would likely wish to join and should not be counted out. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
Dr. Vivien Sil Mabouang, the head of health services in a lush, green district in the center of Cameroon, drives the mud village roads with newfound worry about the health threat from the rivers and streams that thread through the land. – New York Times
The U.S. has sent a small team of troops to Nigeria, the general in charge of the U.S. command for Africa said on Tuesday, the first acknowledgment of U.S. forces on the ground since Washington struck by air on Christmas Day. – Reuters
Nigeria’s state police on Tuesday charged ex-justice minister Abubakar Malami and his son, Abdulaziz, with five counts of terrorism‑related and firearms offences, months after the financial crimes watchdog charged them for money laundering. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed a law extending a preferential trade program for Africa through December 31, effective retroactively from September 30, 2025, the chief U.S. trade negotiator said. – Reuters
The Sudanese army said it broke a years-long siege on the city of Kadugli on Tuesday, potentially providing tens of thousands of people a reprieve from famine and signaling a shift in the war’s momentum. – Reuters
The United States on Tuesday condemned South Africa’s decision to expel Israel’s top diplomat last week, a State Department spokesperson said, calling the African nation’s step a part of prioritizing “grievance politics.” – Reuters
The leader of the AFC/M23 rebel movement in Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday claimed responsibility for a drone attack targeting the airport in the strategic northeastern city of Kisangani, describing it as a warning to the government. – Reuters
Guinea President Mamady Doumbouya, who came to power in a coup and was sworn in for a seven-year term last month, has retained his mines minister but appointed new ministers of finance, justice and security as part of his government. – Reuters
Ethiopia’s government Tuesday for the first time acknowledged the involvement of troops from neighboring Eritrea in the war in the Tigray region that ended in 2022, accusing them of mass killings, amid reports of renewed fighting in the region. – Associated Press
The Americas
Just last month, President Trump was floating military action against Colombia to curb cocaine flows and blasting the country’s President Gustavo Petro as a “sick man.” On Tuesday, the two sat down for a private meeting that capped a remarkable reversal, with the leaders exchanging gifts and signaling a detente. – Wall Street Journal
Argentina’s libertarian leader Javier Milei has won over President Trump and wooed global investors. Now he must convince crisis-weary Argentines to stop hoarding their U.S. dollars. – Wall Street Journal
It began with the merest of cracks in Venezuela’s feared system of authoritarian rule. A television network broadcasting comments by an opposition leader. Other opposition figures saying they were coming out of hiding. A group of university students publicly confronting President Delcy Rodríguez, demanding she release political prisoners. – New York Times
The U.S. embassy in Cuba warned Americans in the country on Tuesday that there was a spike in government-sponsored protests against Washington and that some U.S. citizens were denied entry upon arrival. – Reuters
The United States has now returned to the Venezuelan government all $500 million from the initial sale of oil that was part of a deal reached between Caracas and Washington last month, a U.S. official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Mexico has agreed to deliver at least 350,000 acre-feet of water per year to the United States, the U.S. secretaries of state and agriculture said in a joint statement on Tuesday, after U.S. and Mexican officials met recently to negotiate deliveries under a water treaty. – Reuters
Colombian and Ecuadorian truckers and merchants gathered at a border crossing Tuesday to protest an escalating trade war between both South American countries. – Associated Press
The beefed up US military presence in the Caribbean, designed to crack down on drug routes and turn the screws on Venezuela and Cuba, is set to deliver economic gains for Puerto Rico. – Bloomberg
Carlos Bravo Regidor writes: This may be the darker lesson of the takeover: Removing the figurehead does not vanish the structure, merely forcing it to renegotiate. Its loyalties are not moral or ideological so much as contractual: access to rents, protection against prosecution, control over coercion. In that sense, regime capture works precisely because the apparatus is both powerful and reusable. It can serve a new overseer without being dismantled — especially if dismantling risks the very disorder that Washington and Caracas both want to avoid. Until something binds power again, “transition” is only a name for a void. – Bloomberg
United States
A former Federal Reserve official was found not guilty Tuesday of conspiring to share confidential central-bank information with Chinese intelligence officers, capping a case that featured spycraft, online seduction and a blackmail scam. – Wall Street Journal
The new U.S. strategy for rare-earth minerals looks a lot like China’s old one. A U.S. government agency is providing most of the funding for a $12 billion government-led stockpile of minerals, some of which will likely be sourced from mining companies partly owned by the government. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a new license authorizing the export and sale to Venezuela of U.S. diluents, a key fuel needed to produce exportable crude oil grades in the OPEC country, according to a document shown to Reuters by an administration official. – Reuters
The partial US government shutdown ended late Tuesday after President Donald Trump signed into law a funding deal he negotiated with Senate Democrats, overcoming opposition from both ends of the political spectrum amid a standoff over his administration’s immigration crackdown. – Bloomberg
A House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday underscored what lawmakers and witnesses repeatedly described as a “historic” but “narrowing” opportunity to weaken Hezbollah and restore Lebanese state sovereignty, while exposing sharp disagreement over whether current U.S. policy is moving fast or forcefully enough. – Fox News
Bret Stephens writes: Newsom signed another bill that forbids educators from being required to tell parents that their children have changed their names and pronouns. That won’t be easy to defend in a general election where the race will hang on tens of thousands of votes in states like Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina. As the early swooning over Newsom suggests, some voters’ hearts are fluttering over the prospect of his candidacy. Democrats who take the 2028 stakes seriously should stick to just using their brains. – New York Times
Cybersecurity
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the country would ban social-media access for children under the age of 16, following similar restrictions Australia implemented last year. – Wall Street Journal
French police searched the premises of X in Paris on Tuesday as prosecutors issued a summons to the social media company’s owner, Elon Musk, raising the stakes in a yearlong investigation that has heightened a wider trans-Atlantic dispute over how to regulate tech companies. – New York Times
Britain’s privacy watchdog on Tuesday launched a formal investigation into Elon Musk’s xAI chatbot Grok over the processing of personal data and its potential to produce harmful sexualised images and video content. – Reuters
Greece is “very close” to announcing a social media ban for children aged under 15, a senior government source told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters
In France, civil servants will ditch Zoom and Teams for a homegrown video conference system. Soldiers in Austria are using open source office software to write reports after the military dropped Microsoft Office. Bureaucrats in a German state have also turned to free software for their administrative work. – Associated Press
The Trump administration needs help from industry to reduce the cybersecurity regulatory burden and to back important cyber legislation on Capitol Hill, among other areas, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross said Tuesday. – Cyberscoop
Defense
The Pentagon on Tuesday announced 25 small technology and drone companies that will compete for a chance to quickly field thousands of low-cost one-way attack drones for the military. – Defense News
The U.S. Army is looking to have autonomous airborne drones and ground robots clean up chemical and biological weapons. The Autonomous Decontamination System, or ADS, would scrub vehicles, critical infrastructure and key terrain. – Defense News
The U.S. Navy wants commercial satellites that can perform nighttime observation of the Earth, according to a Naval Research Laboratory Request for Information. – Defense News
The Coast Guard has committed $323 million to modernize its Seattle base in Washington, which will be home to future Polar Security Cutter icebreakers critical to far-flung frozen Arctic and Antarctic missions, commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday confirmed last week. – USNI News
Marine Corps attack helicopters will field a new long-range missile capable of maritime strike and electronic warfare missions in the next year. – USNI News