Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
U.S. readies new $1 billion arms sale to Israel Demolitions in Jenin signal Israel’s new approach in the West Bank Israeli troops kill gunman who opened fire in West Bank, military says Iran is developing plans for faster, cruder weapons, U.S. concludes JINSA’s Michael Makovsky and John Hannah: No more talk: it's time to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program Institute for Science and International Security's David Albright and team: No, Israel did not use a nuclear weapon in Syria Syria's Sharaa to discuss defense pact with Turkey's Erdogan, sources say AEI’s Michael Rubin: Designate Turkey’s intelligence service to be a terror organization WINEP’s Robert Satloff: A Trumpian Middle East goal: 5 Arab-Israeli peace agreements China strikes back at Trump’s tariffs with levies on U.S. imports Trump halts tariffs on Canada and Mexico as both offer new border security plans Rubio hails Panama's move to exit Chinese infrastructure planIn The News
Israel
The Trump administration has asked congressional leaders to approve new transfers of roughly $1 billion worth of bombs and other military hardware to Israel at the same time the White House is working to preserve a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, according to U.S. officials familiar with the sale. – Wall Street Journal
The West Bank is the new battleground in Israel’s post-Oct. 7 war. Jenin refugee camp is the front line […]The large-scale demolitions resembled a tactic used in Gaza, where the Israeli military created corridors to divide the enclave. – Wall Street Journal
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will extend his visit to Washington D.C. and will return to Israel on Saturday, an Axios reporter said on X on Monday. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected on Tuesday to stop U.S. engagement with the United Nations Human Rights Council and continue a halt to funding for the U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA, a White House official said on Monday. – Reuters
Israeli soldiers killed a person who opened fire on them at a post near the village of Tayasir in the occupied West Bank, the military said on Tuesday. It said the shooter was killed during exchanges of fire but gave no details. – Reuters
The majority of the Israeli public stands behind U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a new poll published this week by the aChord Center at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, a nonprofit organization that specializes in the social psychology of intergroup relations. – Haaretz
US President Donald Trump on Monday did not bat down the prospect of Israel annexing parts of the West Bank, noting that the Jewish state is a “very small piece of land” and praising Israelis for their “amazing” accomplishments despite their country’s size. – Algemeiner
David Wurmser writes: In the Middle East, no ally is identified as a symbol of the West more than Israel, nor is any country as capable of fighting and defending itself even without American boots on the ground. Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu will surely discuss specific policies. More important, they will forge a new, innovative U.S.-Israel relationship that secures Israel’s strength and makes use of it to advance America’s interests. – Wall Street Journal
Iran
New intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program has convinced American officials that a secret team of the country’s scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb, according to current and former American officials. – The New York Times
A British soldier was sentenced to more than 14 years in jail for collecting sensitive information for Iran and gathering the names of special forces personnel before briefly escaping from prison while awaiting trial. – Reuters
Sweden’s government on Monday accused a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in Stockholm of being a platform for Iranian spying against Sweden and the Iranian diaspora. – Reuters
As President Trump hosts Prime Minister Netanyahu Tuesday in an effort to remake the Mideast, a top foe of Israel and America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is sharpening its fangs, including with a new, deeply dug missile base that can be used to threaten Israel and international shipping. – New York Sun
Iran and Azerbaijan are once again at odds over Baku’s growing ties with Israel, with Tehran raising concerns during a high-level meeting between officials from both countries over the weekend. – Jerusalem Post
Iran has test-fired an anti-ship cruise missile with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), a weapon capable of reaching U.S. Navy vessels operating in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, state television reported. – Newsweek
Iran was still reeling from news in late January that a 17-year-old girl was fatally stabbed by her father in the country’s northwest when news broke that another 17-year-old was shot by her father and brother while holding her infant in her arms. The two women, Kani Abdollahi and Atefeh Zaghibi, are the latest victims in a year that has seen rising violence against women committed by their own family members across Iran. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Michael Makovsky and John Hannah write: And if Tehran tries to rebuild, then Israel and the U.S. will have to go back in, until a new regime arises in Tehran that focuses on the welfare of its people instead of domestic, regional and global terror and hegemony. That is the agreement that Trump and Netanyahu should aim for—a U.S.-Israel accord that, as Rubio put it, “allows us to have safety and stability in the region.” – Newsweek
Russia & Ukraine
President Trump said Monday he wants to strike a deal with Ukraine whereby Kyiv would supply the United States with rare earth minerals in exchange for American aid, offering the clearest sign yet of his transactional approach to supporting the war-torn nation. – The New York Times
U.S. shipments of weapons into Ukraine were briefly paused in recent days before resuming over the weekend as the Trump administration debated its policy towards Kyiv, according to four people briefed on the matter. – Reuters
A pro-Russian paramilitary leader from eastern Ukraine, Armen Sarkisyan, was killed on Monday when a bomb tore through parts of a luxury apartment block in Moscow, state news agency TASS and other Russian media reported. – Reuters
Moscow’s renewed attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure this winter have heightened scrutiny over the Ukrainian Energy Ministry’s failure to protect the country’s most critical energy facilities near nuclear power sites. – Associated Press
Ukrainian long-range drones struck one of Russia’s biggest oil refineries for the second time in three days, a senior Kyiv official said Monday, as Ukraine tries to slow the Russian army’s push along parts of the front line and the third anniversary of the war approaches. – Associated Press
A dire shortage of infantry troops and supply routes coming under Russian drone attacks are conspiring against Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk, where decisive battles in the nearly three-year war are playing out — and time is running short. – Associated Press
Syria
Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa said on Monday it would take between four and five years to hold presidential elections, the first time he has laid out a timeline for the vote since he was named transitional president last week. – Reuters
Syria’s authorities are holding talks with a US-backed armed group as part of an effort to control firepower in the war-torn country, a step that would cement the new rulers’ grip after the downfall of autocrat Bashar Al-Assad. – Bloomberg
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and the ISIS Team write: The event on December 16, 2024, was not a nuclear explosion. The widespread misinformation demonstrates an appalling lack of knowledge about nuclear weapons, seismological investigations, and radiation monitoring. It also shows how dangerous false claims of the use of nuclear weapons can be. In this case, the misinformation increases the risk of Iran building nuclear weapons and believing, along with others, that the use of tactical nuclear weapons is acceptable in a conventional war or exchange. It is incumbent on Iranian media and officials to either debunk this story, or if unwilling, to present its “evidence” in the context of the CTBTO procedures, so the world can have a look. – Institute for Science and International Security
Arabian Peninsula
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seen by Russia as possible venues for a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, two Russian sources with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters. – Reuters
Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker Chrysalis, which was attacked by Yemen’s Houthis last year, sailed through the Red Sea this week, the Suez Canal said on Monday, in one of the first voyages since the militia announced a halt in attacks on ships not linked to Israel. – Reuters
Israel is preparing to send a high-level delegation to the Qatari capital Doha to discuss continued implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
Five Arab foreign ministers and a senior Palestinian official sent a joint letter to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio opposing plans to displace Palestinians from Gaza, as suggested by President Donald Trump in late January. – Reuters
Syria’s transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan are expected to discuss a joint defense pact in Ankara on Tuesday, including establishing Turkish airbases in central Syria and training for Syria’s new army, four sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
Michael Rubin writes: A major reason why the MİT, quite literally, believes it can get away with murder from Brussels to Athens is that the West has immunized it as an exception or protected it to avoid offending Turkey’s diplomatic sensitivities. Those days should end. Not only Washington, but Brussels and Athens should designate the MİT a foreign terror organization, and both sanction and, if necessary, render, arrest, or eliminate its command structure. – Hellas Journal
Robert Satloff writes: Preventing all these bad outcomes will require skill, persistence, creativity and a hefty dose of brinkmanship. But, in the grand scheme of things, this is a much better set of problems than what the region faced six months ago, before Israeli power began to reshape what is possible. Translating possibility into reality begins with the Trump-Netanyahu conversation. – The Hill
Korean Peninsula
South Korea aims to rebuild its aviation safety system from scratch, the transport ministry said on Tuesday, launching a new committee to improve air travel in the country that suffered two major aviation incidents a month apart. – Reuters
OpenAI said on Tuesday it will develop artificial intelligence products for South Korea with chat app operator Kakao (035720.KS), opens new tab, unveiling a second major alliance with a high-profile Asian partner this week. – Reuters
There is growing concern in South Korea that US President Donald Trump intends to bypass Seoul and reach out unilaterally to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a similar fashion to the US leader’s actions during his first administration. – DW
New satellite imagery suggests North Korea is expanding a key port, with analysts pointing to recent additions that could increase the site’s capacity to import oil and receive naval vessels, according to an analysis by 38 North, a program of the Stimson Center think tank. – Newsweek
China
China on Tuesday swiftly retaliated against President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports with its own levies on U.S. goods, which are slated to take effect Feb. 10. These include a 15 percent tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), a slew of new export restrictions and an antitrust investigation into Google, according to the Chinese government. – Washington Post
Beijing is readying an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration—a sign that China is eager to get trade talks going. – Wall Street Journal
The prospect of stiff tariffs on imports from all of America’s East Asian allies is raising fears across the region of armed conflict with China, the main target of President Trump’s tariff increases. From the Philippines to Taiwan, to South Korea and Japan, China is tightening its grip on island bases, bullying its American-backed foes, and backing up its aggressive tactics with ever more planes and ships. – New York Sun
Matt Sheehan writes: The Chinese start-up DeepSeek stunned the world and roiled stock markets last week with its release of DeepSeek-R1, an open-source generative artificial intelligence model that rivals the most advanced offerings from U.S.-based OpenAI—and does so for a fraction of the cost. Influential tech investor Marc Andreessen called the model “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs” he’d ever seen. U.S. President Donald Trump said it was a “wake-up call.” – Foreign Policy
Peter Garretson, Sydney Nystrom, and David Zou write: As a result, Qianfan’s recent launch successes have naturally reignited debate about the finite nature of real estate in LEO, which both the U.S. and China increasingly view as vital to their national economic and military interests. The ramifications abound. As China rapidly expands this network of satellites, it grows in informational power. As a result, it could acquire a dominant position in global connectivity, greatly expanding the reach and impact of its messaging, propaganda and influence operations. – American Foreign Policy Council
Imran Khalid writes: While Trump has reshaped the Republican Party in his image, resistance to a broad reconciliation with China remains entrenched. Even with GOP control of Congress, skepticism abounds about any potential deal. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle remain wary of compromises that might soften the posture toward Beijing. Ultimately, the question is whether Trump’s confidence in his abilities can overcome a deeply altered landscape of bilateral relations — one fraught with mistrust, ideological divides and a global chessboard tilted by economic fragmentation. – The Hill
South Asia
Pakistan threatened to deport Afghan refugees awaiting relocation unless their cases are swiftly processed by host governments, officials said Monday. – Associated Press
Pakistan on Monday signed an agreement with the Saudi Fund for Development to defer by one year a $1.2 billion payment on the country’s oil imports, the country’s prime minister office said. – Reuters
A firing incident at a United Nations compound in Kabul has killed one person and injured another, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said in a statement on Monday. – Reuters
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has been invited to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington next week, a White House official said Monday night. – Bloomberg
Asia
The air forces of the Philippines and the United States were holding joint patrols over the South China Sea on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Philippine Air Force said, as Manila said it was monitoring three Chinese vessels in its maritime zones. – Reuters
Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will attend a presidential prayer breakfast in Washington on Thursday, the first opportunity for a Pacific Islands leader to press the region’s aid and climate priorities with the Trump Administration. – Reuters
Malaysia will actively build trade relations with other countries, such as China, Russia and Brazil, instead of waiting for the impact of potential U.S. trade tariffs, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Vietnam will hold talks with foreign partners this month about projects to develop its first two nuclear power plants, the government said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Thailand will suspend electricity supply to some border areas with Myanmar in an effort to curb scam centres, its government said on Tuesday, amid growing pressure on the illegal compounds that have ensnared vast numbers of people of multiple nationalities. – Reuters
Police in Georgia arrested several anti-government protesters on Sunday as thousands of demonstrators demanding new parliamentary elections briefly blocked a motorway on the edge of the capital Tbilisi. – Reuters
The U.S. government last month approved three major weapons sales to Japan, its East Asian security treaty ally that faces threats from both China and North Korea. – Newsweek
Europe
European leaders, bracing for a fight with President Trump over the world’s most valuable trading relationship, said they are ready to strike back but prefer cooperation. – Wall Street Journal
At a newly built dock along Germany’s Elbe River, tankers from the United States unload liquefied natural gas to fuel factories and homes. In central Spain, a forest of wind turbines planted atop mountains helps power the energy grid. In French government buildings, thermostats have been lowered in winter to save electricity. – The New York Times
European Union leaders agreed on Monday to do more to bolster their defences against Russia and other threats by hiking spending and filling gaps in their military capabilities. – Reuters
But the limited impact of previous gun control measures in the Western Balkans highlights just how hard it is to eradicate violence across a region littered with millions of firearms left over from regional conflicts, and where the culture of weapon ownership runs centuries deep. – Reuters
An endorsement from Elon Musk, 5 million euros in financial donations this year alone, and now an invitation to meet Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban: once isolated, the far-right Alternative for Germany has a growing number of friends. – Reuters
Swedish prosecutors decided Monday to release a vessel belonging to a Bulgarian shipping company after ruling out initial suspicions that sabotage caused damage to an undersea fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia. – Associated Press
Prime Minister Keir Starmer had hoped to spend Monday marking a new milestone in the UK’s much-promised reset with European Union five years after Brexit. Instead, he received a dramatic reminder of how much harder that will be with Donald Trump back in the White House. – Bloomberg
Denmark is ready to allow the US to boost its presence in Greenland, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said as she seeks to curb an escalating diplomatic crisis with the Trump administration over the world’s largest island. – Bloomberg
Africa
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa defended his land reform policy on Monday against an attack by Donald Trump that laid bare deep divisions within South Africa over racial disparities in ownership, an issue festering since apartheid. – Reuters
The international community must take concrete action and impose sanctions on Rwanda to curb the M23 rebel conflict in eastern Congo and keep the peace in the wider region, Congo’s communications minister told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters
The Eastern Congo rebel alliance that includes the M23 has declared a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons starting on Feb. 4, the group known as the Congo River Alliance said in a statement. – Reuters
The regional blocs of southern and eastern Africa will hold a joint summit in Tanzania’s commercial capital Dar es Salaam on Feb 7-8 to discuss the conflict in eastern Congo, Kenya’s President William Ruto said on Monday. – Reuters
Rwandan President Paul Kagame has told CNN he doesn’t know if his country’s troops are in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where fighting between the M23 armed group and Congolese soldiers has killed more than 900 people and injured thousands in recent days. – CNN
Michael Rubin writes: Macron, President Bill Clinton, and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan have each apologized for their country’s or the UN’s negligence in the run-up to the anti-Tutsi genocide in Rwanda and promised never again. While Norway cites the Rwanda’s anti-Tutsi genocide to virtue signal about human rights, its arrest of Ambazonian leader Lucas Ayaba Cho shows that Norway, like France, today prioritizes cash above moral clarity. Today, Washington, Paris, Oslo and Turtle Bay repeat the same mistakes they did in Rwanda. This is shameful and should not stand. – 19FortyFive
The Americas
President Donald Trump agreed Monday to grant Mexico and Canada a 30-day reprieve on the U.S. tariffs that were scheduled to take effect Tuesday, after both countries pledged to intensify their efforts to prevent illicit drugs and migrants from crossing into the United States. – Washington Post
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado on Monday urged her compatriots to maintain hope while vowing to fight for democracy in the country, after a senior Trump envoy cut a deal with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to facilitate U.S. deportations. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that El Salvador has offered to accept deportees of any nationality from the U.S., including incarcerated American citizens who would be held in the country’s maximum-security prison. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday welcomed Panama’s decision to let its participation in China’s global infrastructure plan expire, calling the move “a great step forward” for its ties with the United States. – Reuters
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa announced on Monday that his government will apply a 27% tariff on Mexican goods in an effort to promote fair treatment for his country’s companies. – Reuters
The Canadian province of Ontario on Monday said it was pausing a number of planned retaliatory measures against the United States, including the cancellation of a C$100 million ($68.12 million) contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink. – Reuters
President Donald Trump is set to test the limits of his immigration crackdown by invoking a wartime law to deport immigrants alleged to be gang members without court hearings, a broad authority that could supercharge his mass deportation push and potentially sweep in people not charged with crimes. – Reuters
Mexican drug cartels are ordering their members to target U.S. Border Patrol agents with kamikaze drones and other explosives amid a crackdown at the southern border by the Trump administration. – Fox News
Editorial: Mr. Trump’s weekend tariff broadside against a pair of neighbors has opened a new era of economic policy uncertainty that won’t calm down until the President does. As we warned many times before Election Day, this is the biggest economic risk of Donald Trump’s second term. – Wall Street Journal
Walter Russell Mead writes: On Monday morning, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the Trump tariffs will be delayed for a month. Mr. Trudeau said the same on Monday afternoon. There is still a chance Mr. Trump’s “big stick” regional tariffs won’t come into force. Whatever happens on the trade front, Secretary Rubio’s first trip to the region won’t be his last. We should all wish him well. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
Kazakhstan will audit its Foreign Ministry following a major cyberattack that researchers suspect may be linked to Kremlin-backed hackers, according to local media. – The Record
Russia is suspected of compromising the personal email account of the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, before he entered office, according to a recently published book. – The Record
A Canadian man has been charged by U.S. federal prosecutors for allegedly hacking into two popular crypto platforms and stealing nearly $65 million. – The Record
An electric utility serving multiple counties in Mississippi was attacked by cybercriminals last summer in an incident that exposed the information of more than 20,000 residents. – The Record
Defense
The U.S. Marine Corps released a revised aviation strategy Monday that focuses on using autonomous systems, drones and artificial intelligence-driven software to ensure its aircraft fleet can survive in a fierce war zone. – Defense News
The increased frequency of underwater infrastructure damage across Europe has raised legal challenges related to the jurisdiction and ownership of undersea cables, which may limit NATO’s ability to respond. – Defense News
Walker Mills, Andrew Tenbusch, and Trevor Phillips-Levine write: Western companies can learn from an industry that can build as many as four million drones next year. This effort would be similar in principle to Project Paperclip, which brought German rocket scientists to work in the U.S. defense industry after World War II, as well as the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program that in part sought to “offer assistance in finding gainful employment” to Soviet nuclear scientists. If preparatory actions are not taken now, weaponized drones will catch the United States and European countries flat-footed within their borders. – War on the Rocks
Long War
A senior commander of Islamic State’s Somalia wing was captured on Monday, police and state media said, two days after the IS leadership was targeted with U.S. airstrikes and as security forces continue a weeks-long offensive against them. – Reuters
Gunmen suspected of belonging to the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab group abducted five government officials in northeast Kenya on Monday as they were on their way to work, local leaders were quoted on Monday as saying. – Reuters
A car bomb killed at least 20 people in the northern Syrian city of Manbij on Monday, the Syrian presidency said, marking the second attack there in three days and the country’s deadliest since Bashar al-Assad was toppled from power in December. The presidency’s statement said it will hold the perpetrators of what it described as a “terror attack” accountable.- Reuters