Fdd's overnight brief

February 3, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Hamas released three more Israeli hostages Saturday, including the first American in this round, in a relatively subdued procession after a chaotic handover earlier in the week sparked an outcry that threatened to snarl the exchanges. – Wall Street Journal

Zubeidi, the former head of a West Bank militia, was among more than 100 Palestinian prisoners freed Thursday in the exchange for hostages who were held in Gaza. Israel says Zubeidi orchestrated attacks that killed Israelis during the Second Intifada uprising in the 2000s. – Wall Street Journal 

President Trump has repeatedly said he wants Palestinians in Gaza to move out of the devastated enclave and into neighboring Egypt and nearby Jordan. The Arab world is pushing back, ostensibly because it would undermine efforts to create a Palestinian state. – Wall Street Journal 

As the Israeli military swept into a string of Syrian villages nearly two months ago, the soldiers assured locals that the presence would be temporary — the aim limited to seizing weapons and securing the area after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. But the earthmoving vehicles that followed suggest a more permanent presence. – Washington Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to leave Israel on Sunday for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, looking to strengthen ties with Washington after tensions with the previous White House administration over the war in Gaza. – Reuters

An Israeli aircraft fired on what the military described as a suspicious vehicle moving towards northern Gaza outside the inspection route laid down by the ceasefire agreement, the military (IDF) said on Sunday. – Reuters

Britain, France and Germany on Friday reiterated their “grave concern” over Israel implementing a law forbidding any contact between its officials and U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA. – Reuters

The European Union has restarted its civilian mission to monitor the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt at Rafah, a key entry and exit point for the Palestinian territory, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Friday. – Reuters

Qatar’s prime minister on Sunday called on Israel and Hamas to immediately begin negotiating phase two of the Gaza ceasefire, adding that there is no clear plan for when talks will begin. – Reuters

Two weeks after the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel took effect, aid is flooding into the Gaza Strip, bringing relief to a territory suffering from hunger, mass displacement and devastation following 15 months of war. – Associated Press

The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday that it has killed over 50 Palestinian terror operatives in the northern West Bank since launching a major counterterrorism offensive nearly two weeks ago. – Times of Israel

The police opened a criminal investigation last month into Sara Netanyahu over allegations she sought to intimidate a witness and interfere in the corruption case against her husband, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the State Attorney’s Office said Sunday. – Times of Israel

Released hostage Yarden Bibas was taunted by his Hamas captors about the fate of his wife and children during his nearly 16 months in captivity, Hebrew media outlets reported Saturday upon his return to Israel on the 14th day of the ceasefire-hostage deal. – Times of Israel

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas demanded an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) following the IDF’s activities in the West Bank which are part of Operation Iron Wall, Palestinian Authority state media WAFA on Sunday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Trump doesn’t want to see Hamas leading Gaza any more than Jerusalem does. Netanyahu must use all the tools at his disposal to convince the president that the conflicting goals of Israel and Hamas can’t coexist. This would mean even more support for Israel should it eventually return to active fighting in the enclave. – Jerusalem Post

David Harsanyi writes: Over the years, through revisionist histories and D.C. “expertise,” we have been programmed to accept the notion that a Palestinian state is inevitable. It’s not. There are hundreds of stateless minorities in the world. Most of them have far stronger claims to nationhood. So proposing that Gazans would be better off in their historic homelands makes perfect sense. – New York Sun

Uri Pilichowski writes: Israelis have spent the past two weeks balancing their emotions between the elation of the freed hostages and the worry over terrorists running free in Israel. They have great hopes for Trump and Witkoff’s future success but also raise deep concerns over future deals that could free even more terrorists. Many Israelis aren’t against negotiated deals and recognize that they require sacrifice and risk. – Jerusalem Post

Itamar Marcus writes: Donor countries must then start the complicated but unavoidable process of transferring responsibility for the 5.9 million people from political UNRWA, which preserves refugees, to UNHCR, which resettles refugees. The PA’s political and unachievable so-called “right of return” would then be replaced by the humanitarian and achievable right to freedom and equality. – Jerusalem Post

Bobby Rechnitz writes: With the Abraham Accords expectantly continuing to expand and strengthen, the Middle East is on the cusp of a new dawn, one characterized by peace, prosperity, and a united front against destabilizing and violent forces. And in the heart of this transformation stands the unshakable partnership between Israel and its allies, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, working alongside President Trump to create a better future for all. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: Hamas is much more self-aware than some people seem to think. It knows how evil it is. It knows how unworthy of moral support it is. It knows that it represents man’s inhumanity to man. It knows that every word out of the mouths of its propagandists is a lie. Hamas needs its Western supporters to trust it, but it would never be so foolish as to believe what it says. For the past 15 months, Hamas has been leading its supporters and its fans and every anti-Zionist with a public profile out on a limb. Now it has sawed off that limb. Watch as all these fools learn absolutely nothing for the next round. – Commentary Magazine  

Iran

Iran will respond immediately and decisively if its nuclear sites are attacked which would lead to an “all-out war in the region,” Tehran’s foreign minister told Al Jazeera TV in an interview aired on Friday. – Reuters

Iranian authorities have arrested a political activist who criticized the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, his wife announced Sunday on social media. – Associated Press

Iran revealed a new ballistic missile on Sunday that it said was capable of traveling 1,700 kilometers (1,056 miles), unveiling it in a Tehran ceremony attended by President Masoud Pezeshkian. – Agence France Presse

Neville Teller writes: The Jerusalem Post’s senior military correspondent, Yonah Jeremy Bob, recently reported that some Israeli and US officials have been indicating that a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could be a viable possibility. Strategists believe that following Iran’s second missile onslaught on Israel, Israel’s counterattack on October 26 destroyed a significant proportion of Iran’s air defenses, leaving its nuclear sites more vulnerable than they have ever been. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Things in the Arctic have never been hotter. In the past year, Russian nuclear submarines have practiced firing cruise missiles near NATO members Norway, Finland and Sweden. That drill followed Arctic wargames by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that included amphibious assaults in the frigid seas. – Wall Street Journal 

The investigators found that Russia and Turkey used the nuclear project in 2022 to dance around U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank, according to people familiar with the matter. Technocrats in Moscow slipped billions of dollars through the U.S. banks into a friendly country, from which the money could bankroll Russian state initiatives.- Wall Street Journal 

As Ukrainian troops cling to the sliver of western Russia they have occupied for six months, most are under orders not to interact with the civilians living under their control. But a small unit in the Ukrainian military has been tasked with exactly that. – Washington Post

An aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday a U.S. call for Ukraine to hold an election after agreeing a ceasefire with Russia looked like a “failed plan” if that is all it consists of, though more details were needed. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that ignoring the Soviet Union’s role in liberating Nazi German death camps such as Auschwitz and not inviting surviving family members of Soviet troops to liberation anniversaries was a shameful act. – Reuters

Ukraine and Russia traded blame for a deadly missile strike on Saturday that killed at least four people in the dormitory of a boarding school situated in a part of Russia’s Kursk region held by Kyiv forces. – Reuters

Russian forces are slowly tightening the noose around the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub whose main supply lines are under threat nearly three years after Moscow invaded its neighbour. – Reuters

Russian forces launched missiles on the centre of Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa, a UNESCO World Heritage site, seriously damaging historic buildings and injuring seven people, local officials said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that excluding his country from talks between the U.S. and Russia about the war in Ukraine would be “very dangerous” and asked for more discussions between Kyiv and Washington to develop a plan for a ceasefire. – Associated Press

Editorial: Trump has a major strategic and historic opportunity to end a terrible war and bring long-term peace, Russia’s return to the international community of nations, and Ukraine’s sovereign democratic viability. But the president will be able to accomplish that objective only by doing abroad what he has done at home — take decisive action. – Washington Examiner

David Kirichenko writes: Putin likely sees Trump’s eagerness for a deal as an opportunity to push for terms favorable to Russia, even at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty and security. Above all, Putin craves a direct summit with the U.S., excluding Ukraine, to reinforce his narrative of Russia as a global superpower. Such talks would end his isolation, validate his claim over Ukraine’s sphere of influence and satisfy his desire to project Russia as an imperialist power deserving respect on the world stage. – The Hill

Margus Tsahkna writes: According to him, the United States, along with designated partners, could sign a special agreement for the joint protection of Ukraine’s critical resources, as well as joint investment in and utilization of their economic potential. Helping Ukraine to secure control over its vast areas of critical minerals is in the direct interest of the United States and its partners. If we were to fail in helping Ukraine to victory and the minerals are used for the benefit of authoritarian powers, the consequences would be devastating, reaching far beyond Ukraine’s borders over decades to come. – National Interest 

Syria

Syria’s new leader moved at the end of January to disband armed groups, including his own, and start the process of creating a new army to secure the country after 14 years of civil war. A visit to Aleppo, the major city they have held the longest, shows it won’t be easy. – Wall Street Journal

Yet after landing in Damascus in January, Rashid and fellow Iraqi pilgrims say they found nothing but a warm welcome from Syria’s new leadership, which includes men implicated in some of the bloodiest sectarian violence in Syria and Iraq a decade ago. – Wall Street Journal

Syrian authorities have arrested a former senior security officer and cousin of ousted leader Bashar al-Assad seen by some as responsible for sparking the country’s 2011 uprising due to a crackdown on protests in the southern city of Daraa, state media said. – Reuters

The commander of the main U.S.-backed force in Syria said Sunday the recent ouster of the Assad family from power should be followed by building a secular, civil and decentralized state that treats all its citizens equally no matter their religion or ethnicity. – Associated Press

At least 15 people were killed and dozens wounded Monday when a car bomb exploded in the outskirts of a northern Syrian city, local civil defense and a war monitor reported. – Associated Press

Jonathan Spyer writes: European and other Western officials traveling to Damascus to meet what they imagine to be the new government of Syria should bear in mind that the country remains divided. The Islamist organization controlling Damascus is only one of many groups vying for control in the region. The task it faces is consolidating its power. It’ll be up to the West to decide whether to support a new, centralized, authoritarian, Islamist Syria—or consider other options. – Wall Street Journal  

Iraq

A drone attack targeted the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Sunday, two security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Iraq’s parliament on Sunday approved a budget amendment to subsidise production costs for international oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in a move aimed at unblocking northern oil exports, lawmakers said. – Reuters

The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Turkey

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday he hoped President Donald Trump would end U.S. cooperation with the Syrian Kurdish YPG, as Turkey continued its military campaign against the group, killing 23 of its fighters. – Reuters

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a leading opposition figure and potential challenger to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, appeared in court on Friday to deny charges that he had attempted to influence the judiciary. – Reuters

Five military academy graduates and three of their immediate superiors were dismissed from the Turkish Armed Forces for taking a pro-secular oath during their graduation ceremony, the defense ministry announced on Friday. – Associated Press

Halil Karaveli writes: Removing the threat of the PKK will depend on many factors. Ocalan must convince his organization that armed militancy is a dead end after the regime change in Syria. The broader Kurdish population will need to see an opportunity for a better future in Turkey. The United States will need to withdraw from Syria, enabling the Syrian Kurdish militias and government to integrate into a new national body. None of these outcomes are guaranteed, but with foresight from Ocalan, the Turkish government, the new Syrian leadership, and the new U.S. administration, all of them are now within reach. – Foreign Affairs

Lebanon

The head of Lebanon’s armed group Hezbollah said on Sunday that his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, would be laid to rest on Feb. 23, nearly five months after he was killed in an Israeli air attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs. – Reuters

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday said that either drone threats from Lebanon will stop existing or Hezbollah itself will stop existing. Speaking from an IDF position in Lebanon in a meeting with Division 146 Commander Brig.-Gen. Yiftah Norkin, Katz stated, “Israel will not accept the launching of drones from Lebanon.” – Jerusalem Post

Lebanese media reported Sunday that Israeli forces detained a fisherman near the coastal town of Naqoura, close to the Israel-Lebanon border, amid ongoing tensions as residents attempt to return to villages in southern Lebanon despite Israeli warnings. – Ynet

 

Egypt

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on the need to consolidate the Gaza ceasefire deal in a phone call on Saturday, the Egyptian presidency said, but it was unclear if they discussed Trump’s call for the transfer of Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. – Reuters 

Egypt President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi congratulated Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was appointed on Wednesday by armed factions, and wished him success in achieving the Syrian people’s aspirations, Sisi said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters 

Thousands of people demonstrated at the Rafah border crossing on Friday, an eyewitness told Reuters, in a rare state-sanctioned protest against a proposal earlier this week by U.S. President Donald Trump for Egypt and Jordan to accept Gazan refugees. – Reuters 

Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie has told shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk there are signs of stability returning to the Red Sea, and urged the company to take that into account when planning sea routes, according to a statement from the SCA. – Reuters 

Arabian Peninsula

Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Sunday in his first foreign trip as Syrian leader, in a sign of the major shifts under way in regional alliances. – Reuters

OPEC+ is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise output gradually when it meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group told Reuters, despite U.S. President Donald Trump urging OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia to bring down prices. – Reuters

Qatar is prepared to host released Palestinian prisoners if they choose to come, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Jordan’s King Abdullah II has accepted an invitation to visit the White House and meet US President Donald Trump later this month, the Jordanian royal palace said on Sunday. – Times of Israel

Jordan is reportedly seeking to deport Ahlam Ahmad al-Tamimi, a Jordanian-born terrorist responsible for the 2001 Sbarro bombing in Jerusalem, which killed 15, including two US nationals, according to Sunday evening reports in Israeli media citing Hamas-run al-Aqsa TV. – Jerusalem Post

Robert Satloff writes: And, worst of all, Iran could compensate for its conventional military vulnerabilities by pursuing a nuclear breakout that upends prospects for peace and instead triggers a regional nuclear arms race. Preventing all these bad outcomes will require skill, persistence, creativity and a hefty dose of brinkmanship. But, in the grand scheme of things, this is a much better set of problems than what the region faced six months ago, before Israeli power began to reshape what is possible. Translating possibility into reality begins with the Trump-Netanyahu conversation. – The Hill

Dennis Ross and David Makovsky write: Trump now is well positioned to help end the war in Gaza, return the hostages, and blunt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He could even normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and create a pathway to Palestinian statehood, provided Palestinians meet a number of tangible benchmarks. He may be able to do it all without firing any shots. If he is serious about his peacemaking posture, he should propose this approach to Netanyahu. His efforts could ultimately fail, but the odds of success today are better than they have been in the past. It is rare that interests converge so neatly in foreign policy, and so Trump has an opportunity to do something his predecessors could only dream of. – Foreign Affairs

Arman Mahmoudian writes: While President Trump may seek to reduce U.S. involvement in the region, complete disengagement is not viable. Past events, like 9/11, underscore the dangers of ignoring Middle East instability. To prevent the region from becoming a hub for extremism, nuclear proliferation, and great power rivalry with Russia and China, the United States must adopt a comprehensive strategy that addresses threats, stabilizes allies, and reasserts its influence. – National Interest

Korean Peninsula

North Korea on Monday criticised U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for calling it a “rogue state” in a media interview, saying his comments do not help U.S. interests, state media KCNA said. – Reuters 

Ukraine’s special operations forces have not seen North Korean troops on the battlefield in Russia’s Kursk region for around three weeks, suggesting they have been forced to withdraw after taking heavy losses, a military spokesperson said on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea’s information privacy watchdog plans to ask DeepSeek about how the personal information of users is managed, an agency official said on Friday. The country’s Personal Information Protection Commission will be sending a written request for information to the operators of the Chinese artificial intelligence model soon, the official said. – Reuters

Rising protests against the impeachment, jailing and possible ouster of Korea’s President, Yoon Suk-yeol, reflect growing divisions in a society torn between old-style conservatism and leftist fears of a return to dictatorial rule that ended with adoption of the country’s “democracy constitution” in 1987. – New York Sun

China

Beijing is readying an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration—a sign that China is eager to get trade talks going. – Wall Street Journal

That year, Chinese officials laid out a bold plan to lead the world in A.I. by 2030, pledging billions to companies and researchers focused on the technology. From this fervor emerged DeepSeek, the largely unknown Chinese start-up that upended the technology landscape by creating a powerful A.I. model with far less money than experts had thought possible. – New York Times

China’s government on Sunday denounced the Trump administration’s imposition of a long-threatened 10% tariff on Chinese imports while leaving the door open for talks with the U.S. that could avoid a deepening conflict. – Reuters 

China said on Friday Japan’s plans for export controls on chips, among other things, could damage business relations. – Reuters

South Asia

Eighteen paramilitary soldiers and 24 militants were killed in fighting in south-western Pakistan, the military’s media wing said in a statement on Saturday. – Reuters 

India does not want to give any signal that it is protectionist, the top bureaucrat in the finance ministry said, after slashing import duties on high-end motorcycles, amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves on tariffs. – Reuters 

A police officer working on Pakistan’s first polio vaccination drive of the year was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen Monday, police said. – Associated Press

Dov S. Zakheim writes: The Modi-Trump relationship will therefore remain cordial, even friendly, and the president may get some of what he wants from the Indian leader, as he has already obtained with regard to immigration. But he is unlikely to get all of what he wants. New Delhi is prepared to work closely with Washington, but, as Jaishankar has made so clear, it has absolutely no intention of kowtowing to the U.S., even if Modi is prepared to go at least some way to accommodate the American president with whom he gets on so well. – The Hill

Asia

Taiwan and China need to talk to each other to achieve peace given the “multifold changes” in the international situation, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said on Monday, calling for dialogue instead of confrontation. – Reuters 

Taiwan will support companies that plan to relocate to the United States, including helping them find partners, the economy ministry said on Monday, outlining assistance it will offer after U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit him next week at the White House and he looks forward to the conversation. – Reuters

Myanmar’s ruling military has extended a state of emergency for another six months, state media reported on Friday, a day ahead of the four-year anniversary of a coup that plunged the country into chaos after a decade of tentative democracy. – Reuters 

Australia on Monday imposed sanctions on extreme right-wing online network “Terrorgram” as part of its efforts to combat a rise in antisemitism and online extremism, following similar moves by Britain and the United States. – Reuters 

Cars and houses in Sydney were daubed in antisemitic graffiti, police said on Sunday, the latest in a string of incidents targeting Jews in Australia’s biggest city. – Reuters

Southeast Asia’s only nuclear power plant, completed four decades ago in Bataan, about 40 miles from the Philippine capital Manila, was built in the 1970s but left idle due to safety concerns and corruption. It has never produced a single watt of energy. – Associated Press

Europe

“I love Europe,” newly inaugurated U.S. president Donald Trump proclaimed to the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. Yet there was also much he did not love, such as that time back in his days as a property developer when he gave up a project in Ireland because, he said, European Union approval would take five or six years. “I’m trying to be constructive,” Trump said. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago convinced Europe’s leaders that they needed to spend more money on defense. On Monday, leaders from across the European Union and Britain will meet in Brussels to debate a vexing question: how to pay for it. – New York Times

When tens of thousands of protesters blocked three key bridges across the Danube River, paralyzing Serbia’s second-biggest city this weekend, the Balkan country’s beleaguered governing party issued a stern warning — not to the protesters but to the state-controlled broadcasting service for reporting on them. – New York Times

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer travels to Brussels on Monday to call on Europe to shoulder more of the burden to keep the region safe from President Vladimir Putin’s Russia and redouble efforts to crush his “war machine”. – Reuters

A Norwegian cargo ship with an all-Russian crew suspected of damaging a Baltic Sea telecoms cable has been released by authorities in Norway after no link to the incident was found, the police said late on Friday. – Reuters

Greenland is not for sale, Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen said on Monday, after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that President Donald Trump’s interest in acquiring the island was “not a joke”. – Reuters

Belgium has a new prime minister whose political purpose was long to break up the nation, gut the state structures and give ever more autonomy to his northern Flanders at the cost of everyone else. – Associated Press

Africa

Dagalo’s paramilitary, now called the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stands accused of committing genocide twice over the past two decades. In both cases, Dagalo’s ethnically Arab fighters have been accused of killing thousands of Black Sudanese in the country’s western Darfur region. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, without citing evidence, that “certain classes of people” in South Africa were being treated “very badly” and that he would cut off funding for the country until the matter is investigated. – Reuters

The South African government has given Taiwan a deadline of the end of March to relocate the island’s de facto embassy outside of the capital city Pretoria, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry said, blaming Chinese pressure for the move. – Reuters

At least 54 people were killed and 158 wounded on Saturday in a strike by Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on a market in the city of Omdurman, the health ministry said in a statement. – Reuters

France will propose a draft resolution to the U.N. Security Council on Friday that aims to “increase the pressure on Rwanda” to withdraw its troops from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, French U.N. Ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday told his Mauritian counterpart, Navin Ramgoolam, that he wants “strong protections”, including from “malign influence”, for a U.S.-British military base on Diego Garcia, according to a statement from Downing Street. – Reuters

Many Africans had known that Trump’s “America First” outlook meant their continent was likely to be last among his priorities. But they hadn’t expected the abrupt halt to foreign aid from the world’s largest donor that stops money flowing for wide-ranging projects like disease response, girls’ education and free school lunches. – Associated Press

The Americas

Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived Sunday with an ultimatum from the White House for Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino: Either curtail China’s presence around the Panama Canal or face an unspecified U.S. response. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuela’s government will take back tens of thousands of migrants, President Trump said Saturday, removing a major obstacle to his plans for mass deportations. – Wall Street Journal  

Six Americans were released Friday from detention in Venezuela after a top Trump administration official made a rare visit to the country to strike a deal on deportations. – Wall Street Journal

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem has decided to end temporary humanitarian protections for approximately 350,000 Venezuelans who sought refuge in the United States in the past few years, putting them at imminent risk of being forced to return to the autocratic regime they left behind in South America. – Washington Post

Ecuador and Canada have finalized a new trade accord following months of negotiations, Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa said on social media on Sunday. – Reuters

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, less than a week after backing down from a decision to turn away U.S. military planes bringing back undocumented migrants, made a bold request to migrants: Come home right away and “build social wealth.” – Reuters

North America

Canada and Mexico prepared to retaliate over tariffs from President Trump, as the U.S. and its neighbors spiraled into a trade war that threatens to hurt American consumers and upend decades of economic integration. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada laid out more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs against the United States late Saturday, in a forceful response to President Trump’s decision to impose levies on a range of Canadian goods. But he made clear that Canada was doing so reluctantly. – New York Times

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. would once again restrict financial transactions with many Cuban military- and government-linked entities, just weeks after the Biden administration had sought to roll those sanctions back. – Reuters

Editorial: The hammer blow to Mexico and Canada shows that no country or industry is safe. Mr. Trump believes tariffs aren’t merely useful as a diplomatic tool but are economically virtuous by themselves. This will cause friends and foes to recalibrate their dependence on America’s market, with consequences that are hard to predict. How this helps the U.S. isn’t apparent, so, yes, “dumbest trade war” sounds right, if it isn’t an understatement. – Wall Street Journal 

United States

President Trump’s aggressive move to place tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in imports, ranging from crude oil and auto parts from Canada to Mexican avocados and raspberries has rattled investors, economists and some lawmakers, who are all wondering: What exactly is the goal?  – Wall Street Journal 

The White House on Saturday announced a wave of tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, marking the first major levies of President Trump’s second term and laying the groundwork for a continental trade war. – Wall Street Journal 

President Trump is preparing an order to fold the U.S. Agency for International Development into the State Department, according to administration officials, previewing a move that throws the future of America’s foreign assistance into doubt as Washington battles China for influence in the developing world. – Wall Street Journal

The tariffs, set to take effect Tuesday, amount to a declaration of economic war against America’s three largest trading partners, which have threatened to retaliate in a tit for tat that could escalate beyond any such conflict in generations. Mr. Trump’s decision to follow through on his tariff threat raises the stakes in his hard-edged America First approach to the rest of the world, with potentially profound consequences. – New York Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s first trip since taking office will be to the United States’ border with Mexico on Monday, in the latest sign that fortifying the border will be a priority for the Pentagon under President Donald Trump – Reuters

Federal authorities have arrested a former Federal Reserve senior adviser for allegedly giving inside economic information to China. A grand jury indictment accuses John Harold Rogers, 63, of Vienna, Virginia, of stealing Federal Reserve trade secrets and selling them to Chinese intelligence officials for at least $450,000 by posing as a university professor in China. – Associated Press

Families of victims of the deadliest U.S. air disaster since 2001 visited the crash site on Sunday and divers scoured the submerged wreckage for more remains after authorities said they’ve recovered and identified 55 of the 67 people killed. – Associated Press

The World Health Organization chief asked global leaders to lean on Washington to reverse President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the U.N. health agency, insisting in a closed-door meeting with diplomats last week that the U.S. will miss out on critical information about global disease outbreaks. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump said on Sunday night that more tariffs, this time on the 27-member European Union, will “definitely” happen and added that they will be coming “pretty soon.” – Washington Examiner

Thousands of FBI agents and employees are being asked by Justice Department leadership to fill out a 12-question survey detailing their roles in investigations stemming from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. – Politico

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made introductory phone calls on Friday to Japan Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and Acting South Korea Minister of National Defense Kim Seon-ho to reaffirm the U.S. alliance and commitment to both countries along with furthering alliance defense cooperation. – USNI News

Editorial: None of this is supposed to happen under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and signed in his first term. The U.S. willingness to ignore its treaty obligations, even with friends, won’t make other countries eager to do deals. Maybe Mr. Trump will claim victory and pull back if he wins some token concessions. But if a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history. – Wall Street Journal

Steven Davidoff Solomon writes: This isn’t an isolated incident. Students have reported to me that professors, even in nonpolitical subjects like computer science, have launched into antisemitic diatribes against Israel during class. Federal enforcement of Jewish students’ rights was lax under the Biden administration. Mr. Trump’s executive order promises to change that, using “all civil and criminal authorities or actions” available. I invite Washington to make an example of my campus. – Wall Street Journal

Arturo McFields writes: Although Trump was successful with his migration strategy toward Mexico, Honduras, Colombia and even Canada, the real challenge remains the dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. This is where the real battle lies ahead. Breaking the stranglehold of these dictatorships, which openly promote migration to the U.S., would be not only a political victory but an enduring legacy for the Trump administration. In the meantime, his unconventional and disruptive approach is proving to be successful. – The Hill

Eli Lake writes: Now, we are about to learn whether the Trump-era Republican Party will empower Gabbard, a woman who, though she has served faithfully in the military, also has praised someone many senators consider a traitor and has trashed the intelligence community his leaks helped expose. In other words, we are about to learn just how big this vibe shift surging through U.S. political institutions really is. – The Free Press

Cybersecurity

An official with Meta Platforms’ (META.O), popular WhatsApp chat service said Israeli spyware company Paragon Solutions had targeted scores of its users, including journalists and members of civil society. – Reuters

Australia’s government carved out an exemption for YouTube when it passed laws banning social media access for children under 16, but some mental health and extremism experts say the video-sharing website exposes them to addictive and harmful content. – Reuters

Taiwan’s digital ministry said on Friday that government departments should not use Chinese startup DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) service, saying that as the product is from China it represents a security concern. – Reuters

Hemanth Mandapati, boss of German startup Novo AI, was an early adopter of DeepSeek chatbots when he switched to the Chinese AI model from OpenAI’s ChatGPT two weeks ago. – Reuters

Britain will make it illegal to use artificial intelligence tools that create child sexual abuse images, it said on Saturday, becoming the first country in the world to introduce the new AI sexual abuse offences. – Reuters

Defense

The Army released the name of the third crew member who died Wednesday when the helicopter she was co-piloting collided with an American Airlines jet near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. – Wall Street Journal 

President Donald Trump failed in his first term to bend the Pentagon to his will, facing delays and defiance from a group of military leaders who were determined to uphold its reputation for staying out of politics. – Bloomberg 

Milton Ezrati writes: It is the outward flows that make “supply chains” more vulnerable and that open American-owned facilities to the whims of foreign powers. To be sure, foreign purchases of a broadcaster could raise national security concerns over the use of propaganda. The purchase of high-technology operations or defense contractors, with all their secrets, might also raise legitimate security questions. However, with steel and the vast majority of everything else produced in the United States, these considerations simply do not apply. – National Interest

James Holmes writes: The White House can appoint some senior overseer, probably housed within the National Security Council, and endow that person or people with the authority to manage U.S. government endeavors relating to the brine. […] An executor of maritime strategy, then, must be a toolmaker and an alliance-builder as well as a tool wielder. That’s the legacy of Carlos Del Toro that’s worth preserving and extending in this brave new world. – National Interest 

Long War

The U.S. conducted an airstrike against Islamic State militants in Somalia, the first such military operation since President Trump returned to the White House. – Wall Street Journal

A Swedish court on Monday found an anti-Islam campaigner guilty of hate crime over statements made as he assisted another man in burning the Koran in 2023, provoking anger in Sweden and Muslim countries. – Reuters

Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Jordan will come together to fight the remnants of the Islamic State group, a move that would allow the United States to cut ties with Kurdish militants in Syria, the Turkish foreign minister said Sunday. – Associated Press

When the freeze was announced shortly after Trump took office, U.S.-funded aid programs worldwide began shutting down operations, including the organization that runs many operations at al-Hol, which works under the supervision of the U.S.-led coalition formed to fight IS – Associated Press