Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran blamed Israel for the first time for a drone attack last month on a military facility in the city of Isfahan and said it reserved the right to “respond resolutely.” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, made the accusation in a letter to the secretary-general, the first time an Iranian official has publicly blamed Israel since the weekend attack. – Wall Street Journal 

International nuclear monitors have started conducting unannounced inspections at a uranium enrichment site in Iran after it hiked levels closer to weapons-grade last year. – Bloomberg 

A rights group says at least 185 citizens in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan have been arrested in the past month by security forces trying to stifle widespread dissent. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

On January 3, 2023, Shi’ite community leaders in Indian cities, especially Mumbai, organized commemorative events to mark the third anniversary of the “martyrdom” of General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of Qods Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad on January 3, 2020. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Iran said a UN nuclear watchdog inspector was mistaken about covert changes to one of its uranium enrichment clusters and said the issue has now been resolved, state media reported Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

Acclaimed Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, who has been jailed for the last six months, said he has begun a hunger strike to protest his continued detention, according to a statement published by his wife Thursday. – Agence France-Presse

French President Emmanuel Macron blasted Iran’s “headlong rush” to develop its nuclear program Thursday following a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Élysée Palace. – Times of Israel

As Western states line up to supply sophisticated battle tanks to Ukraine, Iran is unveiling its own tank army. Iran showcased a legion of miniature tank-robots – remote-controlled, four- and six-wheeled machines fitted with an assortment of small arms. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J.Frantzman writes: It takes, at face value, the deluge of reports in Western and local media. It used to try to threaten the Gulf regarding normalization, but now it appears to think the train has left the station. While the Iranian threats to the region, from drones to the use of proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and elsewhere won’t stop, it appears that Tehran views Israel’s continued diplomatic successes with a stubborn acceptance. – Jerusalem Post

Todd Bensman writes: When Iranians show up at the border and openly present themselves for asylum, American authorities have no way of knowing what’s really in their hearts and minds. Yet it’s a five-alarm fire when an Iranian sneaks into the country in the back of a smuggler’s car. American intelligence will have no choice — rightly — but to assume that Iranian has something to hide. – New York Post

Israel

Israel and Sudan agreed to sign a peace agreement later this year, after earlier attempts by the African nation to normalize relations with Israel failed, Israel’s foreign minister said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal 

An Israeli group that assists Jewish prisoners convicted in some of the country’s most notorious hate crimes has halted its fund-raising efforts through a U.S.-based Jewish charity following an investigation by The Associated Press and the Israeli nonprofit news organization Shomrim. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron Thursday, hoping to gain support against Iran’s nuclear programme but shadowed by an upsurge of violence in the region. – Agence France-Presse

Israeli warplanes bombed parts of the Gaza Strip early Thursday after a bloody month in which animosity between Palestinians and Israel has soared. – Bloomberg 

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) was one of 32 members of the House of Representatives who co-sponsored a resolution recognizing Israel as “America’s legitimate and democratic ally” and condemning antisemitism. The resolution, led by Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), was part of a last-ditch effort to avoid having Omar removed from her position on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. – Washington Examiner 

Spiraling violence between Israelis and Palestinians and fierce protests against proposed judicial reforms are at the forefront of President Biden’s concerns more than one month into the renewed leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – The Hill  

The new government is reviewing Israel’s policies regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the possibility of supplying Kyiv with defensive weapons systems, according to a report Thursday. – Times of Israel

The last week of January saw important developments in Iran-Israel tensions and also US-Israel ties. The triangular puzzle of relations between Iran’s threats, Israel’s attempts to interdict those threats and US support for Israel is one of the pillars of the Middle East’s current situation. – Jerusalem Post

Issac Assa writes: ILAN was born five years ago as a nonprofit foundation. We have a presence in five countries: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Israel, Mexico and the US. In the next five years, we aim to expand our presence to the entire LATAM region, with an eye to expand in every US state where there is a significant presence of Latinos. We look forward to working closely with the State of Israel and its various agencies to work hand in glove to achieve this goal for the benefit of our people and all those around the world who seek peace. – Jerusalem Post

Yaakov Katz writes: There might also be a political calculation. After a first reading, some members of the opposition will likely recalculate their position. The person Likud members talk about this happening to is Benny Gantz, head of Blue and White and a former defense minister. […]It is possible that after a first reading, Netanyahu would be able to appeal to Gantz to join the coalition, establish a committee to work on the judicial reforms and to even take credit for changing and moderating the plan. – Jerusalem Post

Eran Etzion writes: None of these policies will recover trust between the two administrations. As long as Netanyahu is in office, trust is out of the question. But confronting and foiling the three destructive leverage vectors is necessary and possible. If, however, the Biden administration fails to realize the magnitude of the moment and the scope of its potential damage — if it does not move swiftly and decisively — the U.S. will find itself on the wrong side of history on some or all of these three critical fronts. – Middle East Institute

Middle East & North Africa

U.S. Central Command and partnered forces conducted 43 operations in January that resulted in the deaths of 11 Islamic State operatives and the detention of 227 others. Thirty-three of the operations occurred in Iraq and resulted in the detention of 29 ISIS fighters and resulted in the deaths of 9 others, according to a statement from CENTCOM. The other 10 operations took place in Syria and resulted in the detainment of 198 ISIS fighters, while two were killed. – Washington Examiner 

The United States has stepped up pressure on Middle East allies to expel the Wagner Group, a military contractor with close ties to Russia’s president, from chaos-stricken Libya and Sudan where it expanded in recent years, regional officials told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Syria on Thursday dismissed the global chemical weapons watchdog’s statement, which said that investigators had found “reasonable grounds to believe” the Syrian air force dropped two cylinders of chlorine gas in 2018 on then-rebel-held town of Douma. – Associated Press

US President Joe Biden hosted Jordan’s King Abdullah at the Oval Office Thursday, underlining Washington’s view of Amman as playing a critical role in maintaining regional stability, particularly regarding Israeli-Palestinian ties. – Times of Israel

US President Joe Biden on Thursday underlined his support for the legal “status quo” of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in a meeting at the White House with Jordanian King Abdullah II, AFP reported. – Arutz Sheva

On January 12, 2023, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Lebanon for a three-day visit during which he met with senior Lebanese officials, including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Foreign Minister ‘Abdallah Bou Habib, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.[1] While in Beirut, Abdollahian also met with the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad Al-Nakhalah, and reaffirmed Iran’s continued support for the Palestinian resistance. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Chad Kunkle writes: The war in Yemen has been a disaster, and desperate and unnecessary attempts to prevent Saudi Arabia from pursuing alternative relationships are no reason for the United States to continue aiding in the destruction by providing direct military assistance. A resolution that seeks to curb that potential is worth the possible disruption of longstanding policy, especially when that policy is counterproductive to U.S. interests and more beneficial alternatives exist. – The National Interest

China

The U.S. tracked what officials described as a Chinese reconnaissance balloon over the continental states this week, in what would be an aggressive act of intelligence gathering over sensitive American national security sites. – Wall Street Journal 

Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss will join the former leaders of Australia and Belgium at a conference in Tokyo later this month to call for a tougher international approach to China. – Associated Press

China “firmly objects” to further cooperation between Britain, U.S. and Australia on nuclear submarines, its foreign ministry said in a regular briefing on Friday. – Reuters

China’s independent refineries are ramping up imports of discounted fuel oil blended from Russian barrels to use as low-cost feedstock amid a shortage of government crude oil import quotas for some of them, according to trade sources and data. – Reuters

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan should not be underestimated, despite him likely being sobered by the performance of Russia’s military in Ukraine. – Reuters

Days after Japan and the Netherlands joined the US in agreeing to restrict some high-technology exports to China, Beijing has reached out to those American allies, encouraging them to protect existing supply-chain relationships. – Bloomberg 

While the United States is ahead of China technologically and can draw on an array of allies and partners, US forces will still have to use “everything in the cupboard to prevent a conflict,” US Marine Commandant David Berger told a small group of Australian defense analysts and reporters here this week. – Defense News

The U.S. government has continued to express concerns about China’s record concerning the proliferation of nuclear- and missile-related technologies to other countries, with more recent focus on the threat of Chinese acquisition of U.S.-origin nuclear technology. […]U.S. officials have also raised concerns about entities operating in China that provide other forms of support for proliferation-sensitive activities, such as illicit finance and money laundering. – USNI News

China’s technology sector is in danger of being “strangled” by the United States and its allies, according to Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping. “We must quicken the pace of tech self-reliance to prevent being strangled by foreign countries,” the Chinese Communist Party leader told the party Politburo this week. – Washington Examiner 

Clara Ferreira Marques writes: There are still wild cards, of course. The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, say, a leadership change or a dramatic defeat for Putin could all force a shift. But then, as Korolev pointed out to me, large powers have historically suffered debacles in disastrous military adventures without necessarily changing their international alignments. And, should that come to pass, China knows all too well that a friend in need is a friend indeed. – Bloomberg 

Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass write: If the United States wants to deter China, its words and actions must be working in the same direction. It should continue to invest in its own military capabilities, support Taiwan as it hardens its defenses, and continue to build a coalition of allies and partners who are invested in regional peace and stability.. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

John Calabrese writes: Indeed, for China, Pakistan and Egypt are distressed assets — BRI partners too important to ignore with economies too big to allow to fail. Stabilizing their economies depends on resolving debt problems that can only realistically be achieved through strengthened multilateral cooperation. Longer-term economic progress ultimately depends on Cairo and Islamabad addressing deeply rooted structural problems. It would seem to be in China’s self-interest to join forces with other major powers and international financial institutions to help assure both these outcomes. – Middle East Institute

Asia

Micronesia aims to ‘soon’ sign an extension of its economic and security pact with the United States, its President David Panuelo said on Friday, a deal seen as important in Washington’s efforts to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific. – Reuters

The U.S. is expanding it military presence in Asia, in a string of moves aimed at countering Beijing and reassuring Indo-Pacific allies that America will stand with them against threats from China and North Korea. – Associated Press

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi discussed disputed islands in the East China Sea on Thursday, with both expressing concerns and Qin hoping Japan could stop “right-wing” provocations. – Reuters

Southeast Asian foreign ministers are meeting in Indonesia’s capital Friday for talks bound to be dominated by the deteriorating situation in Myanmar despite an agenda focused on food and energy security and cooperation in finance and health. – Associated Press

Editorial: But the United States and its allies need to do more to liquidate a spider network of businesses and opaque financial deals that sustain the junta, including ties to China and Russia. A new report by the group Justice for Myanmar documented examples in which the junta drew support from 64 foreign governments and organizations. Sanctions and other tools could help take down these networks. Myanmar’s agony should not slip out of sight. Action now might return the country to the democratic road on which it had previously embarked. – Washington Post

Oriana Skylar Mastro writes: Tokyo must make clear at home and abroad that defending Taiwan is no longer off the table. The prospect of Japan engaging in offensive operations in the defense of Taiwan would stay Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hand. Only then would recent monumental changes in Japanese politics fulfill their potential in contributing to peace and security in Asia. If Ukraine has taught us anything, it is that deterrence is costly, but war is worse. – Washington Post

Gregory B. Poling writes:  Tokyo and Manila are negotiating an acquisition and cross servicing agreement, or ACSA, and a reciprocal access agreement, or RAA. The latter will permit Japanese troops, like those from the United States and Australia, to conduct military exercises and other activities on Philippine soil.[…]Shortly after that, the 2+2 will serve to underline the rapid elevation of the U.S.-Philippines alliance in the last 18 months. – Center for Strategic and  International Studies

Africa

Kenya is asking the U.S. to pay for the expansion of a joint counterterrorism base, raising concerns in Washington that the East African country could turn to China if the Americans balk, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States on Thursday called on the Sudanese government to use all available legal means to reverse a decision this week to release a Sudanese man facing the death penalty in the killing of a U.S. diplomat in 2008. – Reuters

Among the more ambitious hopes for Pope Francis’ visit to South Sudan this week is that it will give a jolt to a peace process aimed at ending a decade of conflict that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives. – Reuters

Michael J Kavanagh writes: Despite Tshisekedi’s attempts to blame the insecurity on Rwanda and M23, other groups with no links to Rwanda are responsible for much of the violence and upheaval, and his inability to maintain stability could undermine his chances of winning a second term. Congo has more displaced people than any other country in Africa — more than 5.6 million — mainly due to conflict. Tshisekedi’s opponents are aware of his vulnerability and have sought to turn security into a campaign issue. – Bloomberg 

Bobby Ghosh writes: As its position on the war in Ukraine comes under the microscope, at home and abroad, the government may find itself out of step with the national mood — and economic reality. Aside from the generation that experienced the struggle against apartheid, South Africans tend to favor the West over Russia. Trade and business ties with the West dwarf those with Russia. South Africa’s military depends heavily on Western weaponry; the naval fleet is made up mostly of German vessels. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The North Korean military’s notorious hacking arm – known as the Lazarus Group – has been accused of targeting public and private sector research organizations, an Indian medical research company and other businesses in the energy sector. – The Record

Nearly $4 billion was stolen in cyberattacks on cryptocurrency platforms in 2022, fueled in large part by hackers working on behalf of the North Korean government. – The Record

Scammers were able to get two fraudulent apps onto the app stores run by both Google and Apple that allowed them to push users into making fake cryptocurrency investments, according to a new report. – The Record

Nathaniel Fick, U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war prompted the government to significantly increase its partnership with the private sector, a practice that was less common in prior years. – The Hill