Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
U.S. sees Iran’s nuclear program as too advanced to restore key goal of 2015 pact 'State of explosion': Leaked IRGC document warns of rising discontent In Iran Who are the U.S. citizens being held in Iran? Digital warfare tech at sea helping U.S. foes evade sanctions Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley: Why is Joe Biden letting Iran off the hook? WINEP's Simon Henderson: Israeli defense minister’s visit to Bahrain marks major advance UAE says it blocked drone attack, shadowy group claims responsibility U.S. special forces raid Syrian site in search of terrorist leader Putin, Xi will put partnership against U.S. on display at Olympics WaPo’s Josh Rogin: Olympic athletes are getting ready to boycott the opening ceremony in Beijing U.S. orders 3,000 troops to bolster European allies in Russia-Ukraine crisis WSJ Editorial: Why Ukraine matters to the U.S.In The News
Iran
The Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement, U.S. officials familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal
Negotiations to revive the nuclear deal with Iran are “in the final stretch,” the United States said this week. The Biden administration has urged Tehran to roll back its recent nuclear advances and make “tough political decisions” that would allow both countries to return to the 2015 pact. – Washington Post
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian discussed the Yemen crisis with his UAE counterpart Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in a phone conversation on Wednesday, the state news agency IRNA reported. – Reuters
Technology to hide a ship’s location previously available only to the world’s militaries is spreading fast through the global maritime industry as governments from Iran to Venezuela — and the rogue shipping companies they depend on to move their petroleum products — look for stealthier ways to circumvent U.S. sanctions. – Associated Press
Iran’s judiciary said Wednesday that the country’s intelligence units have arrested the No. 2 leader of a little-known militant Iranian opposition group based in California. – Associated Press
President Joe Biden is in danger of allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons under the cover of the lengthy diplomatic process, according to a senior Senate Democrat. – Washington Examiner
A “highly confidential” state document leaked to RFE/RL’s Radio Farda warns that discontent is rising in Iran, with society in a “state of explosion.” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
While President Joe Biden works to address the crisis over Russia menacing Ukraine, there is another critical one looming, with a senior State Department official telling reporters the “end game” is just weeks away. – ABC News
Nikki Haley writes: The right response to Iran’s aggression is strength and resolve — exactly the opposite of what Biden is doing. Instead of giving Iran relief, he should be taking stronger action, issuing stronger sanctions while enforcing existing ones, and making clear that the pressure will only ramp up until Iran changes its behavior. It says a lot that Iran thinks it can get away with so much, including sanctioning me. It’s time for the Biden administration to show Iran that it can’t, starting with enforcing the law and stopping Iran’s oil shipments. Anything less is an insult to the public and a gift to an enemy who wants to destroy us. – Washington Examiner
Jonathan Bernstein writes: That said, candidates do talk about foreign affairs during campaigns, whether or not voters pay attention. If the U.S. does re-enter the nuclear deal, Republicans will criticize Biden for that. If it doesn’t, they’ll blame him as Iran grows closer to testing a nuclear weapon. And campaign promises can be very important, whether they change election outcomes or not. – Bloomberg
Ahmed Charai writes: Hamas and Hezbollah present somewhat more intricate challenges. Both have long been designated terrorist entities and are sanctioned as such. But, as the Trump administration’s rapid deployment of a functionally unilateral sanctions regime against Iran demonstrated, a great deal depends on the vigor and extent with which secondary sanctions are applied. Should the Biden administration prioritize closing off the financial lungs through which these entities breathe — in Turkey, Qatar, Latin America and elsewhere — Tehran would suddenly find its most dependable regional assets cash-starved and desperate for relief. – The Hill
Jordan Steckler writes: Buoyed by Washington’s desire to extricate itself from the region and secure a nuclear deal at any cost, Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are riding high. If the US is to prevent Iran from going nuclear, and from realizing Soleimani’s lifelong ambitions of spreading Iran’s revolutionary ideology and evicting the US from the region, it must recommit to increasing the pressure on Tehran. The US must make clear that the Iranian regime will pay a price for its regional destabilization. – Algemeiner
Afghanistan
Since the United States withdrew troops and the Taliban seized power, Afghanistan has plunged into an economic crisis that has pushed millions already living hand-to-mouth over the edge. […]Now with no immediate respite in sight, hundreds of thousands of people have fled to neighboring countries. – New York Times
Taliban fighters will no longer be allowed to carry their weapons in amusement parks in Afghanistan, the group’s spokesman said on Wednesday, in what appeared to be another effort by the country’s new rulers to soften their image. – Reuters
International banks can transfer money to Afghanistan for humanitarian purposes, and aid groups are allowed to pay teachers and healthcare workers at state-run institutions without fear of breaching sanctions on the Taliban, the United States said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Two Afghan journalists who disappeared this week have been released, their employer said on Wednesday, after the United Nations called on the Taliban to provide information on their whereabouts. – Reuters
Some public universities opened in Afghanistan on Wednesday for the first time since the Taliban seized power in August, with a trickle of women attending classes that officials said would be segregated by sex. – Agence France-Presse
Turkey
Turkish forces have “neutralised” 43 Kurdish militants in northern Syria in retaliation for a bombing in the town of al Bab that killed nine people, the Defence Ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog will visit Turkey in mid-March, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday, as Ankara looks to improve strained bilateral relations between the two countries. – Reuters
Turkey will not respect the Council of Europe if it does not respect Turkish courts, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday, when asked about a decision to refer the case against philanthropist Osman Kavala back to a top court. – Reuters
Historic rivals Turkey and Armenia on Wednesday resumed their first commercial flights in two years as part of cautious efforts to warm their frozen ties. – Agence France-Presse
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Kyiv on Thursday in a bid to set the stage for a three-way summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin aimed at avoiding war in Ukraine. – Agence France-Presse
Turkey said it won’t back down from planned arms deals with Ukraine, including the possible sale of additional armed drones that’s drawn a rebuke from Russia. – Bloomberg
Asli Aydintasbas writes: This should be a lesson to Turkey and others in Europe: You can deal with Russia and trade with Russia, but if you become dependent on Russia, your options in the great power game will be limited. Erdogan will do all he can to support Ukraine diplomatically and step up Turkey’s NATO engagement. But if war becomes inevitable, Turkey will be careful not to cross Putin’s red lines. – Washington Post
Israel
Israel is taking part in a huge U.S.-led naval exercise in the Middle East, for the first time publicly joining Saudi Arabia and Oman, two counties it has no diplomatic relations with despite its normalisation of ties with some Gulf states. – Reuters
Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz began a visit to Bahrain on Wednesday amid heightened tensions in the Gulf after missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement. – Reuters
Israel’s attorney general has upheld the Shin Bet security agency’s use of mobile-phone tracking technology to monitor and threaten Palestinian protesters at Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site last year. – Associated Press
Israel’s ties with the US may be harmed by the advancement of plans for a new yeshiva and settlement on the Evyatar hilltop, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s office has hinted. – Jerusalem Post
Visiting Israel for the first time to kick off talks for an expanded free trade agreement (FTA) between the UK and Israel, it was clear that Trevelyan saw great potential for the business ties between the two countries. She started her three-day visit with meetings with her Israeli counterpart Orna Barbivay and Science and Technology Minister Orit Farkash-Hacohen. – Jerusalem Post
Amnesty International’s report which claims Israel is an apartheid state is “propaganda attempting to demonize and delegitimize the State of Israel,” Louisiana senator Dr. Bill Cassidy said on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Ukraine has asked Israel for assistance with air and cyber defenses amid fears of a Russian invasion, the Eastern European country’s foreign minister said Wednesday. – Times of Israel
Yossi Yehoshua writes: Making the most of a lull in inclement weather, Israel chose to inform Moscow of its intentions only shortly before striking as required in the cooperation agreements between the countries. The strike itself could be considered a message to Moscow on Israel’s part that the campaign against Iran on Syrian soil will carry on. […]For Tehran, Sunday’s strike is a sign that despite Washington’s weakness against them — even after attacking U.S. targets in Syria and Iraq — Israel is different. […]As far as Israel is concerned, it has no intention to make any policy changes. – Ynet
Doron Ella and Oded Eran write: While Israel wishes to continue having healthy economic relations with China, it realizes that these are becoming closely attached to the great-power rivalry between the US and a rising China. A further deterioration in the US-China confrontation, and the possibility that it may turn into Cold War 2.0, presents Israel with a severe dilemma with a potential heavy price tag tied to any course of action it decides to follow. – Jerusalem Post
Simon Henderson writes: Consequently, Gantz’s visit could spur protests among elements of the Shia community and even some Sunnis who oppose links with Israel. Although high-profile displays will probably be deterred by the often heavy hand of local security forces, the U.S. embassy website has long warned the several thousand American service personnel living in Bahrain about potential Shia hostility. For instance, the site includes a map of the island showing red-marked areas where U.S. government employees cannot go, and additional yellow areas where they cannot go at night. – Washington Institute
Arabian Peninsula
The United Arab Emirates said late on Wednesday it intercepted three drones that entered its airspace over unpopulated areas earlier in the day, in the latest attack on the Gulf commercial and tourism hub in the past few weeks.. – Reuters
Israeli defense officials visited the United Arab Emirates last week to discuss possible defense and intelligence assistance following recent Houthi attacks targeting the Gulf country, two Israeli officials tell me. – AXIOS
The United Arab Emirates late Tuesday welcomed the prime minister of Somalia’s public apology for a Somali operation in 2018 that resulted in the seizure of Emirati aircraft and $9.6 million in cash, wrecking relations between the nations. – Associated Press
Qatar’s Foreign Minister, Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, has ruled out the prospect of his country normalizing relations with Israel. – Arutz Sheva
Alberto M. Fernandez writes: The repeated attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE coming from the Houthis in Yemen are certainly connected to the war in Yemen and the fact that Iran’s proxies in that country are facing tougher opposition on the ground. But the attacks are also an attempt at sabotaging governance and ideological models which stray from the disastrous policy decisions of the past and which promise to be successful, inspiring others elsewhere that a better, different future is possible. – Middle East Media Research Institute
Middle East & North Africa
U.S. special operations forces carried out a combat operation to kill or capture a high-level terrorist in northwest Syria along the Turkish border, in a mission that included Apache gunships, airstrikes and drones, according to U.S. officials and accounts on social media. – Wall Street Journal
President Kais Saied says he will remake Tunisian politics in 2022 with a new constitution and parliament after seizing executive power last year in a move his foes call a coup – but the threat of national bankruptcy may upend his plans. – Reuters
As fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine leave the West hunting for alternative natural-gas shipments, an energy-rich country on Europe’s doorstep seems an obvious port of call. Algeria, a major gas supplier to Italy and Spain and the biggest source of European Union imports after Russia and Norway, could be able to provide at least some of the relief the U.S. and others are seeking. – Bloomberg
Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on Wednesday that Israel recently offered aid to the Lebanese army as the country reels under a crushing economic and political crisis. – Ynet
Korean Peninsula
A new North Korean state media documentary made a rare mention of the country’s “food crisis,” a glimpse into the realities on the ground amid mounting reports of pressures caused by the country’s prolonged covid border lockdown. – Washington Post
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his wife attended a Lunar New Year’s Day concert in Pyongyang where he received thunderous cheers from audience members and artists who praised him for heralding a “new era” of national power, state media reported. – Associated Press
Sungmin Cho and Oriana Skylar Mastro write: Finally, these three states must prepare for simultaneous provocations in East Asia, including concurrent conflicts in Taiwan and on the Korean Peninsula. In consultation with one another, the United States and its allies must demonstrate a strong willingness to cooperate and take strategic risks. They should hold more trilateral defense minister meetings, more thoroughly review various contingency scenarios, and discuss how to enhance their combined capabilities. – Foreign Affairs
Jongsuk Jeong writes: Beyond this, the shared democratic values that unite Seoul and Washington will prevent South Korea from ever choosing China over the United States. Thus, if South Korean progressives continue their military buildup, a strong South Korea is ultimately in America’s interests. The past five years of South Korea “balancing” between China and the United States has only led to its international isolation. A better approach would be to pursue “peace through strength” not alone but together with the United States. – War on the Rocks
China
An extensive buildup of barriers along China’s 3,000-mile southern border is under way, according to public documents, official statements and interviews with residents, ostensibly to battle Covid-19 but with likely long-lasting ramifications on trade and travel. – Wall Street Journal
When Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping hold a summit alongside the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics, on display will be a flourishing partnership that is already complicating U.S. foreign policy and influence around the world. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese President Xi Jinping will host 21 world leaders at the Winter Olympics, and a majority of them preside over non-democratic regimes. – Bloomberg
In the months leading up to the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, which open on Friday, companies have been keeping their heads down when asked about the persecution of more than 1mn Uyghur Muslims, which the Biden administration has called “genocide.” – Financial Times
At the December 20, 2021 “Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations,” Cui Tiankai, former Chinese deputy foreign minister and former ambassador to the U.S. and to Japan, delivered a special speech on the topic “Some Thoughts on Sino-U.S. Relations.” […]In his speech, Cui stressed that the purpose of China’s “fight” against the U.S. is “to safeguard the people’s interests” and “the overall strategy of national rejuvenation.” – Middle East Media Research Institute
Josh Rogin writes: In 2022, the Olympics is being held in a country credibly accused of perpetrating an ongoing genocide. Any athletes protesting those abuses, even if only by staying away from the Opening Ceremonies, are standing up for human rights everywhere. They deserve our admiration, protection and support. – Washington Post
Adam Taylor writes: The calls for a boycott got louder and louder. In Western capitals, foreign policy hawks and human rights advocates joined to push a boycott of the Olympic Games in Beijing. U.S. lawmakers cited links in an alleged genocide and abuses against a minority as moral justification for staying away. I am not writing about the Beijing Winter Olympics, due to start later this week. I am referring instead to the international calls for a boycott of the 2008 Summer Olympics, also held in the Chinese capital. – Washington Post
Desmond Lachman writes: The prospect of a simultaneous slowdown in the U.S. and Chinese economies casts a dark cloud over the economic outlook for the rest of the world economy in general and the emerging market economies in particular. Economic policymakers in those countries would ignore the impending world economic slowdown at their peril. – The Hill
Michael Schuman writes: As matters stand, though, the Winter Games could be an unfortunate pivot point. In 2008, the Olympics foreshadowed China’s rise as a global leader and the great possibilities that could bring; 2022 suggests that a more powerful China will have a more conflicted relationship with the world. With the events closed to visiting spectators, the Chinese will stand alone, reveling in their own perceived greatness; the outside world will participate entirely on Chinese terms. Just the way Beijing likes it. – The Atlantic
South Asia
Indian officials have held heated discussions with Google, Twitter and Facebook for not proactively removing what they described as fake news on their platforms, sources told Reuters, the government’s latest altercation with Big Tech. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund has approved a $1 billion loan as part of a bailout package to Pakistan, following reforms to rein in state spending, increase tax collection and make the central bank more independent, the IMF and the country’s finance minister said. – Associated Press
Pakistan’s military has repelled nighttime assaults on two army bases in the southwestern Balochistan Province that killed four soldiers and 15 insurgents, Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad said on February 3. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Bryce Loidolt writes: The U.S. drone campaign in Pakistan presents one viable approach, although it is one that neither quickly nor comprehensively degraded al-Qaeda. Relying heavily on lethal targeting to contain future terrorist threats will likely achieve similarly real, but imperfect, results. U.S. policymakers would do well not just to understand these limitations, but to also consider the broader range of complementary counter-terrorism instruments they have at their disposal. – Texas National Security Review
Asia
Cambodia’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that a non-political representative from Myanmar had been invited to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers later this month rather than the country’s military-appointed foreign minister. – Reuters
Joe Biden plans several stops during a visit to Asia this spring, which will be his first to the region as president and include a summit with three key regional allies in Japan, a senior administration official told Reuters. – Reuters
The U.N. Security Council called Wednesday for an immediate cessation of violence throughout Myanmar as the country’s military coup entered a second year, and it reaffirmed support for the country’s democratic transition and democratic institutions. – Associated Press
Taiwan’s government is seeking to use a push to restructure global supply chains away from China to build more substantive ties with fellow democracies and counter Beijing’s attempts to isolate it internationally. – Financial Times
Russia
Russia is again trying to move the focus of the Ukraine crisis to a disputed peace accord for the country’s east, as the United States signaled its encouragement for the agreements as a way to de-escalate tensions. – Washington Post
President Biden is directing the Pentagon to deploy more than 3,000 American troops to bolster the defense of European allies in the first major movement of U.S. forces in Russia’s military standoff with Ukraine, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal
The gap between Russia and the West over the future of Ukraine and security in Europe was laid bare as details of two bluntly worded responses delivered to Moscow last week were made public, showing the U.S. and NATO rejected the Kremlin’s demands and instead blamed the tension on Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal
Even as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia claims the United States is trying to goad Russia into war with Ukraine, new satellite imagery shows no sign of a slowdown in Moscow’s military buildup. – New York Times
Russia said it was destructive for President Joe Biden to move additional troops to Europe and station more along NATO’s eastern flank as the tension over Ukraine continues. – Bloomberg
Editorial: For many years, Mr. Putin’s authoritarianism was a softer variant than that of the Soviet Union, leaving room for some independent news media. But the past year has brought harsher crackdowns, including the effort to force closure of Memorial, Russia’s prestigious repository of Soviet persecutions. Now the government is trying to airbrush away specific reports that embarrass Mr. Putin and his pals. The erasures won’t eliminate the evidence entirely, however. The YouTube video of Mr. Putin’s palace remains available and has been viewed more than 121 million times. – Washington Post
David E. Sanger writes: Democracies are usually terrible at information warfare, and American officials insist there is a difference between what they are doing and the dark arts that Mr. Putin made famous. […]Russia often makes up its narratives, and its officials have no problem with lying outright, as they did when Mr. Putin created a pretext to annex Crimea in 2014, sent operatives to use nerve agents against Russian opposition leader Alexei A. Navalny and a former Russian spy in Britain, and launched series of cyberattacks on the United States. – New York Times
Michael S. Bernstam writes: The Russian leaders may not realize the destructive power of Central Bank sanctions. The task of diplomacy is to convey to them this 21st Century economic reality. There is no risk in making a threat. If the Russians respond by unloading their holdings and shipping cash home, they cannot do much. […]Even if it is uncertain whether or when the Central Bank sanctions will be executed, their threat alone is a credible deterrent because their potential outcome is so powerful. This raises the stakes much higher for Russia than for the West and should prevent war. – The Hill
Oleksandr Danylyuk writes: The reason for this failure is the lack of understanding of Russia, ignoring its expansive intentions and deceptive methods. Even now, as the West tries to avert Russian aggression from Ukraine, Moscow keeps talking about the Minsk agreements. There’s a reason for that. If the West fails to recognize the danger, the Minsk agreements will pave the way for Ukraine’s partition — which would turn Ukraine into the smaller, weaker nation that Putin actually wants. – Politico
Europe
Brushing aside charges of greenwashing, the European Union will press ahead with a controversial proposal to label certain nuclear energy and natural-gas investments as sustainable over the coming years despite strong opposition from some of the bloc’s member states, environmental groups and investors. – Wall Street Journal
American and Ukrainian officials continue to differ over how immediate a threat Russian forces arrayed around Ukraine could pose, even as Western military supplies flow into the embattled country. – Wall Street Journal
In the war of words between the Western alliance and Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government have been conspicuously outspoken. – Washington Post
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Russian President Vladimir Putin that any incursion into Ukraine would be a tragic miscalculation during a call on Wednesday, Johnson’s office said in a statement. – Reuters
Britain’s Royal Air Force said Wednesday that it scrambled fighter jets in response to four Russian military aircraft approaching the United Kingdom. – Associated Press
All prior agreements reached under the framework of the European Union-led Kosovo-Serbia dialogue must be implemented, U.S. special envoy Gabriel Escobar said on February 2 at the end of a visit to Kosovo’s capital, Pristina. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
In a proposal to ease tensions over a Russian military build-up in Ukraine, NATO and U.S. negotiators offered Moscow the opportunity to inspect two ballistic missile defense sites to prove the alliance has no offensive missiles. – USNI News
Joe Biden has tried to ensure that the US and its partners remain united in responding to the threat to Ukraine from Russia’s military build-up, but one source of discord has come from an unlikely source: Ukraine’s own leader. – Financial Times
Northern Ireland ordered a halt to checks on goods coming into the region’s ports, risking further turmoil in Brexit negotiations. Post-Brexit checks brought in since the end of 2020 were to cease at midnight on Wednesday, according to an order from Northern Ireland Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots. – Bloomberg
At a news conference for foreign media, Kuleba called on the EU and its member countries to finalize the sanctions package and make it public — so that Russian President Vladimir Putin understands the West is not bluffing about how it would respond to a military attack on Ukraine. – Politico
Editorial: The idea that Mr. Putin can somehow be coaxed into helping the West contain China is a fantasy. He would pocket concessions on Ukraine and continue to threaten American interests in Europe while working with China to undermine U.S. interests around the world. After swallowing Ukraine, Russia would also be that much more powerful and closer to NATO’s eastern front. Supporters of Mr. Biden’s retreat from Afghanistan adopted the mantra “good strategy, bad execution” when chaos followed. In reality, abandoning a modest commitment was bad strategy and an awful precedent that has encouraged bad actors like Mr. Putin. Doing the same in Europe would be even greater folly. – Wall Street Journal
Ivan Krastev writes: Europeans are right to believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not inevitable — and may even be correct that it’s not the most likely scenario. But we cannot deceive ourselves that we can skip the resilience test. “If you invite a bear to dance, it’s not you who decides when the dance is over,” the Russian proverb goes. “It’s the bear.” – New York Times
Tom Rogan writes: Avoiding the Baltic states, Biden’s latest troop deployments evince a similar hesitation. And not, as many in the media would apparently call it, a signal of resolve. […]On the surface, these deployments evince a U.S. commitment to allies under threat from Putin. Still, these deployments evince hesitation far more than they do strength. […]So what is Biden doing, exactly? The answer: the very least he can do to keep allies off his back. Putin will see right through it. Biden, I fear, is not proving true his inaugural pledge to be a “strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.” – Washington Examiner
Tara D. Sonenshine writes: My bet is on the French saving our bacon. France is the Switzerland of this war. Behind the scenes, they have been getting the Russians and the Ukrainians together, keeping the U.S. and Europe in the loop and at the table using President Emmanuel Macron’s muscle to coax and cajole Putin and the warring parties to give peace a chance. […]Traditionally, it would be America leading the diplomacy. But we are bogged down at home with COVID-19, inflation and a deep and paralyzing political divide. – The Hill
Aya-Nay Haddad writes: The Western Balkans, specifically North Macedonia, is a region of great interest in global politics and stability, yet the United States in recent years has not been a major player there. With a presumed shift in US foreign policy under the Biden administration, the US would do well to become more involved in the region, lest other global powers such as China and Russia move in to fill the vacuum. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
At least 60 people were killed in a militia attack early on Wednesday at a displaced persons’ camp in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the head of a local humanitarian group and a camp resident. – Reuters
At least six people were killed in a failed attempt to overthrow Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, state radio said on Wednesday, as residents of the capital cautiously returned to daily life. – Reuters
Such accounts have led human rights groups to warn that Burundi’s government has shown little if any improvement under President Evariste Ndayishimiye, who took office after the death of President Pierre Nkurunziza in 2020 with talk of reforms after years of deadly political crackdowns. – Associated Press
Jared Thompson, Catrina Doxsee, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. write: As the situation in Mali rapidly evolves, it remains important for the United States, France, and ECOWAS to maintain open communication with the Malian government while also holding it accountable. […]As the international community seeks to establish accountability and put Mali’s democratic transition back on track, it must balance its efforts against the junta’s demonstrated willingness to double down, a trajectory that may lead it to align even more closely with Russia and the Wagner Group. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
United States
Intense directed energy from an external source could have caused some cases of the debilitating so-called “Havana syndrome” among US diplomats, US intelligence said Wednesday, supporting the possibility of deliberate attacks. – Agence France-Presse
The White House forcefully criticized a GOP senator on Wednesday for language it said parroted Russian talking points, as fault lines between President Biden and his staunchest GOP critics deepened on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. – The Hill
Editorial: As much as cheap capital, businesses need regulatory certainty and skilled workers. Yet the Biden Administration is mounting a regulatory assault on business, while progressives dumb down math and science with a woke curriculum. […]Congress could counter China by granting trade promotion authority to negotiate new trade deals. Donald Trump’s biggest strategic blunder vis-a-vis China was pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but new trade authority isn’t in the bill. – Wall Street Journal
Dan Altman and Kathleen E. Powers write: In the end, setting redlines is neither wisdom nor folly. Given the lack of appealing alternatives, Washington will inevitably need to use this tactic to bargain with and deter adversaries. But it need not do so under false assumptions. […]Nor are the strongest redlines—or those that are trumpeted with brash language and swagger—the most effective. […]To be effective, redlines should be carefully calibrated to convey U.S. demands, provide necessary assurances, and avoid provoking their targets. Whether the United States is dealing with China, Iran, or Russia, striking the right balance will be the key to success. – Foreign Affairs
Cybersecurity
Facebook parent Meta’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday revealed a startling statistic: For the first time ever, the company’s growth is stagnating around the world. – Washington Post
The FBI has confirmed purchasing NSO Group’s powerful spyware tool Pegasus, whose chronic abuse to surveil journalists, dissidents and human rights activists has long been established. It suggested its motivation was to “stay abreast of emerging technologies and tradecraft.” – Associated Press
An Austrian court has ordered Facebook to remove content defaming a former lawmaker and post a banner on its home page announcing the decision, a court spokesman said Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse
Defense
The U.S. admiral leading the Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group wouldn’t speculate on Wednesday about what comes next after exercises in the Adriatic Sea end in the coming days. Navy rules prohibit talking about future operations. – Reuters
The Missile Defense Agency’s plan to field an interceptor against incoming hypersonic weapons has hit a funding snag, the agency’s director said Wednesday. – Defense News
If a war against a major adversary breaks out, it’s going to require the military to resupply troops at a pace it hasn’t seen in a long time, Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, head of U.S. Transportation Command, said on Wednesday. – Defense News
Lawmakers want to speed up Pentagon budgeting, but they’re going to take their time fixing it. – Defense News
The Pentagon’s research and engineering chief is crafting a new strategy for investment in 14 critical technology areas, writing in a new memo that “creative application” of emerging concepts is key to maintaining an edge over adversaries. – Defense News
The Pentagon’s chief information officer will also serve as the head of a new organization overseeing the Defense Department’s various digital and artificial intelligence efforts, the department announced Feb. 2. – Defense News
The Navy is committed to buying two Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyers per year in tandem with developing its new DDG(X) program, the top surface warfare requirements officer said Wednesday. – USNI News
The U.S. Navy has begun a major exercise in the Middle East that both brings in 60 regional navies to rehearse operating together and introduces unmanned vehicles and artificial intelligence to test their contributions at sea. – Military Times