Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Two Iranian warships docked in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government granted permission despite pressure from the United States to bar them. – Reuters

Dozens of female students in Iran have been summoned to attend “mandatory counseling sessions” for failing to wear their hijab “properly” following months of women’s rights and anti-regime protests across the nation, reports said Monday. – Fox News 

High-level Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commanders have set up a host of shell companies used to launder money in a scheme that was brought to light by documents obtained by Iran International, a Washington DC-based Persian language news organization. – Jerusalem Post

Iran is the only country willing to supply Russia with weaponry to prosecute its invasion of Ukraine, with other countries seemingly avoiding requests from Moscow to purchase arms, the head of the Ukrainian intelligence service said on Monday. – Algemeiner 

Iran said on Monday that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, will visit Tehran “in the coming days”, amid a row over uranium enrichment levels in the Islamic Republic, AFP reported. – Arutz Sheva 

The Iranian revolution is at a do-or-die moment, requiring western governments to give their full, active support or risk seeing the movement’s impact wane, Reza Pahlavi, the oldest son of the former Shah of Iran who was deposed in 1979, has said in a Guardian interview. – The Guardian

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran must also consult with China and Russia about what comes next. It can’t afford to do something that will anger its friends in Beijing and Moscow, who don’t care if Tehran builds more missiles, but may care if it takes risks by trying to create some kind of test weapon. Iran now begins to move down new tracks where it will have to make key decisions soon. These decisions will impact how it wants to continue to build up its nuclear pyramid – or if it even wants to continue to build at all. – Jerusalem Post

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Raisi administration may be trying to revitalize the nuclear negotiations with the West. Online rumors have claimed in recent days that former Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araghchi has joined the nuclear negotiating team and traveled to Geneva with Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. […]Resuming compliance to achieve sanctions relief would require that Iran reestablish significant monitoring and verification cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and resume compliance with the centrifuge requirements and uranium and heavy water enrichment and stockpile limits set by the nuclear deal, among other possible measures. – Institute for the Study of War

Emil Avdaliani writes: Iran, for its part, has accelerated its “Look East” policy with the goal of balancing US sanctions and weakening Europe’s negotiating position in stalled talks on its efforts at nuclear enrichment, by increasingly aligning with China. Bilateral trade grows as does rhetorical support, as seen in Tehran praising Beijing’s Ukraine Plan. In 2021, the two countries also signed a potentially massive 25-year investment agreement. More concretely, China is now increasingly seen as a major lifeline for the Islamic Republic via Iranian oil purchases that reached $47bn over the past two years. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Israel

A U.S.-Israeli dual national was killed Monday in what Israeli authorities said was a terrorist attack by Palestinian gunmen in the West Bank, the latest incident in an extended wave of deadly violence. – Wall Street Journal 

Palestinians in the occupied West Bank on Monday counted the cost of deadly violence and arson by Israeli settlers targeting a town where two Israeli brothers were killed. – Agence France-Presse

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sees the previous day’s attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank as “actions of terror,” an IDF official said Monday, as tensions in the region simmered after a weekend of violence. – CNN

Benjamin Netanyahu has not even been back in power two months, and already he faces unprecedented, multi-faceted challenges on nearly every front. From Israeli-Palestinian violence, to protests over his government’s judicial overhaul, to new challenges on the international stage, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister has his work cut out for him. – CNN

An ultra-conservative Jewish politician on Monday said he was resigning from his role in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government after failing to advance his agenda, but that he would still support the coalition in parliament. – Reuters 

A U.S.-brokered summit had barely ended with pledges to calm violence and slow Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank when Palestinian homes were set ablaze by Jewish settlers in retaliation for a deadly Palestinian gun ambush. – Reuters

A noted professor and energy security expert who was arrested earlier this month on charges of trafficking arms to Communist China and Libya has appealed to Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to “rescue him” from President Biden. – New York Sun

Israel must hold settler vigilantes accountable for torching of Palestinian homes and cars in the Huwara area in the West Bank, Biden administration officials said as the United Nations Security Council prepared to hold a closed-door session Tuesday on the matter. – Jerusalem Post

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen heads to Germany Tuesday as part of Israel’s campaign to halt Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, particularly in the aftermath of reports that the Islamic Republic is close to producing weapons-grade uranium enrichment. – Jerusalem Post

The Biden administration said Monday that it expects Israel to prosecute those involved in the deadly settler rampage in a Palestinian town and provide compensation to the Palestinians whose homes and property were destroyed or damaged. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a speech in the Knesset plenum that his government would not tolerate “anarchy,” a day after a mob of extremist settlers rampaged through the Palestinian town of Huwara, lighting homes and cars on fire. – Times of Israel

After a brief lull in West Bank operations, Israeli troops detained eight wanted Palestinians during overnight raids, as manhunts continued for a number of terrorists who killed three Israelis in recent shooting attacks, the military said Tuesday morning. – Times of Israel

Israelis donated over NIS 1 million ($272,750) within less than 24 hours for Palestinians whose homes and businesses were destroyed by hundreds of settlers who carried out a deadly rampage through the northern West Bank town of Huwara on Sunday night. – Times of Israel

The US State Department issued a travel advisory for American citizens visiting Israel, citing the recent string of deadly Arab terror attacks, as well as internal “civil unrest.” – Arutz Sheva      

Editorial: When there should have been national unity in mourning the deaths of the Yaniv brothers on Sunday, extremists hijacked the day with their illegal and deadly acts. The government, as one voice, must unequivocally condemn their acts and take measures to ensure that such vigilantism does not take place. If that can’t happen, Netanyahu should draw the necessary conclusions and fire the ministers who side with the extremists who are doing untold damage to this country and its moral fiber. – Jerusalem Post

Andrew England and James Shotter write: Many Israelis, however, worry the religious and ultranationalists in government could drive an agenda that will affect myriad aspects of their society, from the justice system to education. […]If there is a bright spot amid the crisis, Livni says, it is that liberals have found their voice after a string of elections that became referendums on Netanyahu rather than policy debates. – Financial Times 

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Israel will at some point probably face a negative ruling against it by the International Court of Justice regarding its handling of Palestinian issues. Then again, from the reactions of multiple leaders in the coalition, it is not clear that they care very much about the impact on the ICC and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and it is even unclear how much they care about US and EU criticism – as long as they please their domestic constituencies. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

The House on Monday approved a resolution that mourns the loss of life in a series of earthquakes in Turkey and Syria and strongly condemns the Assad regime for what it says are efforts to “cynically exploit the disaster to evade international pressure and accountability.” – The Hill

Lydia Polgreen writes: Assad is pressing his advantage, most likely seeing the catastrophe as a way to normalize relations with his neighbors and reinforce their perception that he has vanquished the rebellion. The war in Syria has already destabilized and reordered our world in countless ways. In these dangerous and unpredictable times, the worst of it could be yet to come. – New York Times

Pauline Steinhorn writes: Surely that’s what Israel had in mind when it carried out Operation Good Neighbor during Syria’s civil war. The humanitarian-aid program sent hundreds of tons of food and clothing and established three medical facilities at the border that treated thousands. In the wake of Syria’s destructive earthquake, Sacks’s words are relevant once again. A decent society, he observed, is one in which “enemies do not allow their rancour or animosity to prevent them from coming to one another’s assistance when they need help.” It shouldn’t take a natural disaster for the rest of us to remember that. – Wall Street Journal

Erik Yavorsky writes: While some rank-and-file PMF members undoubtedly have genuine sympathy for the Syrian population and are delivering aid of real value, the muqawama leadership of the PMF—comprising multiple U.S.-designated human rights abusers and terrorists—and their Iranian partners are likely bent on exploiting the earthquake to substantially improve their cross-border coordination with Assad and Lebanese Hezbollah, and to legitimize themselves inside Iraq. PMF charitable operations and sites in Syria should therefore be closely scrutinized. – Washington Institute

Iraq

Nearly 20 years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein by U.S.-led forces, Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid wants the world to know his country now is at peace, democratic and intent on rebuilding economic life while maintaining a government that serves the whole country and the region. – Associated Press

Hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Baghdad on Monday to denounce a draft elections law that would increase the size of the country’s electoral districts, potentially undermining independent candidates. – Associated Press 

A Turkish drone strike in northern Iraq on Monday killed three fighters from the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS), a militia affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Iraqi Kurdistan’s counterterrorism service said. – Reuters

In comments that should raise eyebrows around the Middle East and the wider region, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami met with Iraq’s Defense Minister Thabet Mohammad Said Reda, offering support for Iraq’s armed forces. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Global donors on Monday pledged about $1.2 billion at a conference aimed at generating funds to help millions of people in Yemen suffering from the fallout of an eight-year civil war, a U.N. official said. The amount is far below a target of $4.3 billion set by the United Nations to stave off one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. – Associated Press

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday pledged more than $444 million in additional aid to Yemen as it faces what the secretary called “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” of conflict, economic instability, food insecurity and other issues. – The Hill

Ibrahim Jalal writes: It is highly likely that Houthi attacks on Yemeni ports will increase the militarization and securitization of the Arabian and Red seas. This will require the ROYG to improve its naval and coastguard capabilities, including by means of cooperation with Arab and Western states, to interdict the flow of Iranian arms and equipment. If allies in the West are genuine, the prospect of sending captured arms to the ROYG’s Yemeni Armed Forces rather than elsewhere should be explored. Unless they are seriously and adequately addressed, the Houthis’ multi-range and non-conventional capabilities will present a long-term threat to Yemenis, the wider region, and beyond. – Middle East Institute

China

The Energy Department’s conclusion, with “low confidence,” that an accidental laboratory leak in China most likely caused the coronavirus pandemic has renewed questions about what sparked the worst public health crisis in a century — and whether the virus at the heart of it was somehow connected to scientific research. – New York Times

China accused the United States of politicizing the coronavirus pandemic again on Monday, in response to reports that the Energy Department had concluded that an accidental laboratory leak had likely triggered the spread of Covid worldwide. – New York Times

A special House committee dedicated to countering China will make its debut on Tuesday, the opening act in what lawmakers hope will be a robust effort to overcome partisan divisions and address a “generational challenge” to America’s national security. – Associated Press

A contingent of Chinese companies led by technology giant Huawei is turning the world’s biggest wireless trade fair into an opportunity to show their muscle in the face of Huawei’s blacklisting by Western nations concerned about cybersecurity and escalating tensions with the U.S. over TikTok, spy balloons and computer chips. – Associated Press

China on Monday accused the U.S. of “outright bullying and double standards” in leveling what it called “illegal” sanctions on Chinese companies as part of U.S. actions against Russia’s Wagner Group and related companies and individuals. – Associated Press

China must be more honest about the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. ambassador to China said on Monday, after reports that the U.S. Energy Department concluded the pandemic likely arose from a Chinese laboratory leak. – Reuters

China has always maintained communication with all sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including Kyiv, a foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular news briefing on Monday. – Reuters

China is using TikTok to expand its influence around the world, a top Republican lawmaker said Monday in arguing that the popular video-sharing app that’s owned by a Beijing-based company should be banned in the US or sold off. – Bloomberg

The geopolitical crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing US-China tensions have led to “slowbalization,” where global integration is happening at a slower pace, according to retired General David Petraeus. – Bloomberg

China will welcome the leader of Russian ally Belarus for a state visit this week as the US again warned Beijing against supplying Moscow with weapons for its war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

American private schools owned by Chinese government-linked groups would not be allowed to operate junior military programs if a bill introduced Monday by Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) succeeds. – Washington Examiner

Top officials in the intelligence community will appear before the Senate for a hearing on foreign security threats after a suspected Chinese spy balloon violated U.S. airspace last month. – Washington Examiner

The Biden administration will require tech and chip manufacturers that receive subsidies via the CHIPS and Science Act to provide some form of child care, adding a new domestic policy restriction to funding meant to help the United States compete with China in an innovation war. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: Congress should tread carefully. Legislators could add the Secretary of Agriculture to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, which oversees inbound investment, so that agricultural concerns aren’t overlooked in its deliberations. The government should also ensure that disclosures by foreign buyers are more detailed and accessible, and should strengthen the penalties for noncompliance. […]Above all, government officials should resist needlessly exacerbating public anxieties and paranoia. The US has enough real threats to worry about without concocting new ones. – Bloomberg 

Ross Babbage writes: The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. It may turn out to be child’s play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. – New York Times

Adam J. White writes: The House charged the committee to “investigate and submit policy recommendations on the status of the Chinese Communist Party’s economic, technological, and security progress and its competition with the United States.” It can’t begin to understand this competition without understanding America’s own strengths and weaknesses—especially the self-imposed ones. – Wall Street Journal 

Benny Avni writes: Also, Washington warnings of arm sales aside, China exports to Russia semiconductors and microchips, defying a Western ban. Such technologies can aid the Russian military. Perhaps that was what Mr. Blinken meant by saying Beijing supplies Russia with “dual-use” material that can be used on the battlefield. – New York Sun

Asia

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is flying on Tuesday into the heart of what Moscow considers its sphere of influence to urge senior Central Asian officials convening in Kazakhstan to maintain independence from Russia and China. – New York Times

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi is unlikely to attend a meeting of G-20 foreign ministers in India from Wednesday, instead prioritizing parliamentary business, according to a government official. – Bloomberg

The Philippine president said the main mission of his country’s military has changed to ensure the protection of its territory as disputes with China and U.S.-China rivalry intensify. – Associated Press

The foreign ministers of Japan and New Zealand agreed on Monday to speed up talks on an intelligence sharing pact as the two island nations vowed to strengthen security ties and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region amid shared concern over an increasingly assertive China. – Associated Press

China accused the United States of “endangering” peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait after a U.S. military plane flew through the sensitive waterway on Monday, with the U.S. Navy responding that it had been in international airspace. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un urged government officials to engineer a “fundamental transformation” in agricultural production, state media reported on Tuesday, amid fears that the country’s food shortage is worsening. – Reuters

Newly released photos offer a rare glimpse into the abandoned demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, revealing rare wildlife and plant life flourishing in the space largely untouched by humans. – New York Post 

Thailand kicked off an international military exercise with the biggest US attendance in a decade as Washington seeks to build on ties with a key security partner at a time of rising global geopolitical competition with Beijing. – Bloomberg

Singapore’s top diplomat lauded recent inroads made with Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei as part of a strategy to build “overlapping circles of friends” amid worsening geopolitical tensions in the region. – Bloomberg

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be prepared to invade Taiwan in 2027, but the CIA’s belief is that he has “doubts” about whether this is an attainable goal. – Washington Examiner

China will attack the American homeland if “a major war” erupts over Taiwan or elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Army’s top civilian expects. – Washington Examiner

Pankaj Mishra writes: Instead of yet again expediently legitimizing authoritarian rulers and further damaging its credibility, the West would be better off maintaining its commitment to democracy — and not just rhetorically. It is too easy to throw around the word “democracy” along with bombastic adjectives such as “largest” and “vibrant.” A harder, but essential, task is upholding the core democratic ideals of equality and justice — everywhere. Certainly, those who claim to be fighting for freedom and dignity in Ukraine should not be willing to countenance their destruction in India, Turkey and other likely partners of the West. – Bloomberg

Kamran Bokhari writes: Further compounding matters is the fact that the unintended consequences of the sanctions weakening Astana’s economic position are happening when the country is going through a crucial political transformation. Such a situation undermines U.S. policy to render Kazakhstan (and other post-Soviet nations) less dependent upon Russia. What is worse is that the sanctions regime, as it currently stands, conflicts with the American strategic interest to fortify political and economic resilience of the Central Asian nations. – The Hill

Gary Anderson writes: No one wants a Sino-American war over Taiwan, but the best way to persuade Beijing not to start one is to convince it that an attack will be too costly. – The National Interest

Africa

Early results from Nigeria’s presidential election showed a sizable lead for the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu on Monday, as international observers said serious logistical problems, violence and the slow publishing of polling-station results had marred the vote in Africa’s largest economy and most-populous nation. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. first lady Jill Biden got an up-close look Sunday at the historic East Africa drought as she walked along arid land and listened as some Maasai women described how their children and livestock are going hungry. She appealed for more countries to join the United States to help alleviate the suffering. – Associated Press

Ethiopia is courting support for a motion to cut short a U.N.-mandated inquiry into atrocities in the Tigray war, five diplomats said, in a move that could divide African and Western nations. – Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that France’s military bases in Africa will gradually be co-run with their host nations, after Paris suffered a series of setbacks in its former sphere of influence. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi said on Monday that a conflict with rebels in the east of the country could disrupt preparations for general elections scheduled for Dec. 20. – Reuters

The United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) suspended flights in Congo’s North Kivu and Ituri provinces following an attack on one of the service’s helicopters last week, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Monday. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron gave French businesses a public dressing down for their lack of ambition in Africa as he pressed for a reset in the relationship between his country and the continent. – Bloomberg

Dozens of Russians working for a mining company in Sudan are being probed by authorities on suspicion of gold-smuggling, in a potential setback for Moscow’s ambitions in the resource-rich North African state. – Bloomberg

North America

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday denied a media report from last week saying his office had been warned by Canada’s spy agency to drop a Liberal candidate, who is now a member of parliament, because he had Beijing’s support. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States asked Mexico’s government to extradite Ovidio Guzman, son of jailed drug boss Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, so that he can face criminal charges in a U.S. court, two Mexican government sources told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

A select group of congressional leaders on Tuesday will hear from administration officials about classified documents found in the possession of President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence, people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg 

Defense

The Department of Defense reminded members of the military that although jumping out of a plane with a parachute and an American flag in tow may seem patriotic to some, it is not acceptable. – Fox News 

The Navy has renamed a warship in honor of a Black sailor and statesman who had been born into slavery, as part of the US military’s ongoing effort to remove names that commemorate the Confederacy. – CNN 

Russia is fulfilling a years-long naval nuclear plan separate from Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to buck an international treaty, a Russia expert told Newsweek. – Newsweek 

“It’s kind of a paradox that our ‘unmanned’ formations are larger than our manned formations,’” said Maj. Gen. Michael McCurry, a veteran helicopter pilot who now heads the Army aviation “schoolhouse” at Fort Rucker, Ala. – Breaking Defense 

After a rocket-propelled grenade attack hit Britt Slabinski’s helicopter in the mountains of Afghanistan in 2002, the weight of the decisions in the hours that followed transformed him into a true warfighting professional. – Military.com