Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas handed over what it said were the last four dead hostages included in the first phase of a cease-fire agreement with Israel, mediators said, as they race to extend the fragile truce. – Wall Street Journal

For six weeks, the hard-won ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas survived fraught hostage exchanges, disputes over alleged deal violations — and the shock of President Donald Trump’s unexpected proposal to remove Palestinians from Gaza and take control of the Strip. – Washington Post

The people of Israel embraced them on their final journey, turning out in multitudes along the funeral route for a family that had become emblematic of the country’s trauma after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. – New York Times

The UN Human Rights Chief accused Israel on Wednesday of showing an unprecedented disregard for human rights in its military actions in Gaza and said Hamas had violated international law. – Reuters

Israel will not withdraw from a strategic corridor in the Gaza Strip as called for by the ceasefire, an official said Thursday. Israel’s refusal could spark a crisis with Hamas and key mediator Egypt at a sensitive moment for the fragile truce. – Associated Press

Israel’s central bank is advising lenders to put aside as much as 3 billion shekels ($841 billion) over the next two years, to be spent on benefits for citizens struggling with the economic outcomes of war. – Bloomberg

The International Criminal Court on Wednesday scrapped an arrest warrant issued against Hamas’s late military chief Muhammad Deif, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last year. – Agence France-Presse

Hamas has stated that the only way the remaining hostages will be freed is through a commitment to a ceasefire deal, according to a Thursday morning statement from the terrorist organization. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas on Wednesday strongly condemned a video shared by US President Donald Trump which promotes his vision for transforming Gaza into a seafront resort, Xinhua reported. – Arutz Sheva

The Israeli military presented one of the kibbutz communities that faced a massacre on October 7, 2023, with findings of its probe into the events of that day, on Wednesday. Kibbutz community members said afterward that the investigation, although “comprehensive and in-depth, failed to answer a critical question – Where was the Israeli military?” – Haaretz

Editorial: The sad truth is that pay-for-slay polls as one of Mr. Abbas’s few popular programs among Palestinians. The PA won’t outdo Hamas in terrorism, but it is unwilling to break from its refugee-victim status and attempt to develop a Palestinian economy and honest institutions or make peace with Israel. Joe Biden fantasized in public that the PA could be “revitalized,” but there’s no evidence it wants to. – Wall Street Journal

Douglas Altabef writes: The realization, as has now been forensically ascertained, that Hamas members murdered two innocent, cherubic souls, as well as their mother, with their own bare hands, is such an event. May Yarden Bibas have the comfort of knowing that the horrific sacrifice of his beloved wife and sons will prove to be the vehicle of the avenging of their blood and, please God, an important step in the annihilation of their murderers. – Jerusalem Post

David Benatar writes: What is dismaying is how many people, including in Western countries, have failed to draw these conclusions. Despite all the evidence, both in war and in ceasefire, they continue to side with the repressive theocracy of Hamas over the democracy that is desperately defending itself against an enemy that combines a medieval mentality and morality with modern munitions. – Algemeiner

Russia & Ukraine

Both the U.S. and Ukraine touted a proposed deal over mineral resources as important, but the most contentious element—military support to Ukraine—and other details have yet to be negotiated. – Wall Street Journal

Officials from the United States and Russia will meet Thursday in Istanbul to discuss resolving issues hindering their diplomatic missions in each other’s countries, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Wednesday. – New York Times

Dozens of dignitaries walked out of Russia’s speech to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva on Wednesday in support of Ukraine. The delegates, including the ambassadors of France, Germany and Britain, gathered outside the room where the session was taking place to mark three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters

The United States on Wednesday abstained from a statement by members of the World Trade Organization condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, a diplomatic source and a Geneva trade official told Reuters. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will on Sunday host leaders of Italy, Germany, Poland and other allies – possibly including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy – to discuss their response to Donald Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin hosted Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo for talks in the Kremlin on Wednesday, the latest sign of a drive by Moscow to build up economic and security relationships with countries in west and central Africa. – Reuters

Russian forces have recaptured two settlements in the country’s western Kursk region where Ukrainian troops broke across the border and seized a chunk of territory last August, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow could not consider “any options” for European peacekeepers being sent to Ukraine and that the idea was aimed at fuelling the conflict and making it harder to de-escalate. – Reuters

Secretary of State Marco Rubio mapped out US strategy for managing Russia’s close relationship with China, saying Washington wants to dilute ties without sowing division between the nuclear-armed neighbors. – Bloomberg

Russia’s attack helicopter forces have gone from being “easy targets” in the early stages of the war in Ukraine to now being the “worst nightmare” of the Ukrainian armed forces, an official from the NATO Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC) said on 26 February. – Janes

Editorial: Peace can come if American action persuades Ukraine to make painful territorial concessions in return for surety it will not be invaded again. It will also come only if American action persuades Russia to make its own territorial concessions and accept structures that prevent a future Russian invasion. These fundamentals of peace are what Zelensky and Putin care about in their own way. They are what Trump must leverage to the maximum. – Washington Examiner

Casey Michel writes: The Trump administration risks repeating this pattern. If that happens, the U.S. may face the ultimate veto: the return of a nuclear Ukraine. Recent polls show three-quarters of Ukrainians support developing nuclear weapons. It wouldn’t take much for Kyiv to jump-start its program, returning to nuclear status in a few months. Mr. Zelensky said this month that nuclear weapons are a “sufficient security guarantee” if Ukraine can’t join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Trump administration appears to have ruled out NATO membership. – Wall Street Journal

Mick Mulvaney writes: If this is how Trump sees the world, and it is contributing to his approach to Ukraine, he is taking a gamble of epic, world-changing proportions. If he is wrong, and Russia sees Trump’s approach as weakness, indecision, and 21st-Century appeasement, the worst-case result could be World War III, with all the horrors that entails. And in that event, history would rightly treat Trump dramatically worse than it has Neville Chamberlain. – The Hill

Benjamin Jensen writes: Historical precedents suggest that anything less than a robust multinational force, backed by air, naval, and space assets, risks failure. The size and structure of this force must balance deterrence with long-term training missions to build Ukraine’s self-sufficiency. As NATO and allied nations debate the future of European security, they must recognize that protecting any peace deal in Ukraine will require sustained commitment, strategic depth, and a force built for endurance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Marianna Fakhurdinova writes: In the end, US companies will be the first to ask President Trump about protecting their investments from Russian aggression. Ukraine has been arguing this for years – only strong bilateral security guarantees or NATO membership could be a reliable ground for Ukraine’s reconstruction, as they will secure European and American investments from future Russian aggression. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Ēriks Selga writes: And if the US pressures Ukraine into accepting Putin’s terms, will Europe maintain sanctions against Russia, and for how long? At what point would the cost to the European economy outweigh the punishment to Russia? These issues must be discussed now, to ensure the EU and its allies in the region are not caught off balance by unpredictable and rapid political maneuvers on the other side of the Atlantic. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lebanon

The Israeli Air Force announced Wednesday that it struck a “central terrorist” in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for transporting and smuggling Iranian weapons into Lebanon. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanon’s new government on Wednesday won a confidence vote in Parliament, with the support of Hezbollah’s bloc, even though the government statement adopted took a swipe at the group’s weapons. – Associated Press

Yaakov Katz writes: Lebanon stands at a crossroads. If its leaders and people seize this moment, they can free themselves from decades of war. The West, and particularly Israel, need to act strategically to support this transformation. The choice is there; the opportunity is now. – Newsweek

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s spy agency said Wednesday that North Korea appears to have sent additional troops to Russia, after its soldiers deployed on the Russian-Ukraine fronts suffered heavy casualties. – Associated Press

A small group of foreign tourists has visited North Korea in the past week, making them the first international travelers to enter the country in five years except for a group of Russian tourists who went to the North last year. – Associated Press

Bilahari Kausikan writes: At the press conference with Ishiba, Trump also claimed that his talks with Kim during his first term had stopped a war on the Korean Peninsula. Regardless of whether this is true, Trump certainly dealt better with North Korea than his predecessor. Former President Barack Obama made pretty speeches but came across as weak to many countries in East Asia, including U.S. allies and partners. For eight years, he did nothing about North Korea and called it a policy of “strategic patience.” – Foreign Policy

South Asia

European Union leaders are likely to urge India to lower its tariffs on cars and alcoholic beverages, and expand market access during European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to New Delhi. – Reuters

President Trump argued on Wednesday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should “fire every single” US military general involved in the Biden administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.  – New York Post

Sadanand Dhume writes: For Mr. Modi, Mr. Trump’s return to power also presents opportunities. New Delhi has good reason to believe that the Trump administration will care less about human rights and so-called democratic backsliding than the Biden administration did. India may also expect that a potential rapprochement between Washington and Moscow will make Mr. Modi’s relations with Vladimir Putin less of a liability, perhaps even an asset. It’s even possible that Mr. Trump will back his “great friend” Mr. Modi in India’s neighborhood, particularly in disputes with Pakistan and Bangladesh. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

In almost every way, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will walk into the White House on Thursday as an alien in President Donald Trump’s MAGA universe: a former human rights lawyer, a onetime top prosecutor and, after vanquishing Conservatives in elections last summer, the United Kingdom’s most liberal leader in more than a decade. – Washington Post

British finance minister Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday she was confident that U.S.-UK trade and investment would not be derailed as President Donald Trump threatens to retaliate against what he sees as barriers to U.S. exports. – Reuters

France said on Wednesday it would review a decades-old agreement that makes it easier for Algerian citizens to move to France unless Algeria agrees to take back those who are deported by the French authorities. – Reuters

The Romanian parliament adopted a bill on Wednesday allowing the army to shoot down drones illegally breaching Romanian airspace, based on threat levels and risks to human life and property. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that his administration will soon announce a 25% tariff on imports from the European Union. “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25% generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things,” Trump told reporters during a meeting of his cabinet. – Reuters

Police are on high alert ahead of Germany’s traditional carnival celebrations this week after social media connected to the Islamic State militant group called for attacks targeting revellers in Cologne and Nuremberg, said police spokespeople. – Reuters

A planned meeting between European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Secretary of State Marco Rubio was abruptly canceled Wednesday due to “scheduling issues,” coming as political tensions have increased between Europe and the United States. – Associated Press

A court in Bosnia on Wednesday sentenced the pro-Russia Bosnian Serb president, Milorad Dodik, to one year in prison and banned him from politics for six years over his separatist actions as tensions mount in the fragile Balkan state. – Associated Press

Editorial: As for the EU, the AfD wants Germany to leave the union, not lead it. How, then, to address the frustration reflected in the party’s electoral success? Germans want results. Merz and other party leaders should focus on delivering. On the economy, among other things, they should relax the debt brake — a move that Germans increasingly support — and ramp up investment in everything from education to infrastructure. – Bloomberg

Allison Schrager writes: First, nations are realizing they need more economic growth to pay down debt and continue the rise in living standards their citizens demand. Growth will be especially critical for countries needing to pay for the care of aging populations. Second, new technology such as AI is transforming economies around the world. This demands a rethinking of regulatory structures, not only so regulations can be more effective, but also to ensure countries can take advantage of the new opportunities a major transformation offers. – Bloomberg

Rosario Iaconis writes: Like the Italian Air Force jet fighters that were scrambled to escort an American Airlines plane in peril to Leonardo da Vinci Airport, Giorgia Meloni is soaring. Italy’s premier has taken flight in the rarefied atmosphere of diplomacy, daring to go where no man — or woman — has gone before in pursuit of an enduring peace in Europe. – New York Sun

The Americas

President Trump said Wednesday he was revoking a Biden-era license allowing Chevron to produce oil in Venezuela over what he said was strongman Nicolás Maduro’s failure to assist in deporting migrants. – Wall Street Journal

Before Trudeau resigned in January, Canada’s right-leaning Conservatives were headed for an election-day romp, having led Trudeau’s Liberals by 20 points for more than a year. But since Trudeau stepped aside and President Trump threatened steep tariffs to use what he called “economic force” to make Canada the 51st state, the Liberals have made a dramatic turnaround. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s plan to impose crippling tariffs on Canadian exports is seen as a devastating threat to many Canadian businesses and workers. – New York Times

Canada deported more people last year to hit its highest annual level of removals in about a decade, overwhelmingly deporting people whose refugee claims were rejected, data obtained by Reuters showed. – Reuters

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres is proposing opening a U.N. office that would provide drones, fuel, ground and air transportation and other non-lethal support to a Kenyan-led mission in Haiti struggling to fight gangs, according to a letter obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Venezuelan migrants handed over to Mexico like it’s a U.S. immigration detention facility. Families from Central Asia flown to Panama and Costa Rica to await voluntary repatriation to their countries. Venezuelans from Guantanamo Bay handed off on a Honduran tarmac and returned to Caracas. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

The Belgian federal prosecutor said on Wednesday it had started a probe into alleged Chinese hacking of Belgium’s intelligence service VSSE in November 2023, confirming an earlier report by Belgian daily Le Soir. – Reuters

A 21-year-old US soldier accused of trying to sell AT&T call records of Donald Trump’s family members also attempted to pawn off sensitive data to a foreign intelligence organization, according to court documents. – Bloomberg

A push is gearing up to renew an expiring 10-year-old cybersecurity law that was viewed at its initial passage as the most significant cybersecurity legislation Congress had ever passed, and that advocates say now fosters several important threat-sharing initiatives. – CyberScoop

Ukraine’s state cyber response team (CERT-UA) warned that hackers are targeting notaries’ computers in an attempt to gain remote access and manipulate government registries. – The Record

A suspected Belarusian state-backed hacking group is behind a cyber espionage campaign targeting opposition activists in the country, as well as Ukrainian military and government entities, according to a new report. – The Record