Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas is regrouping its military forces for a potential return to fighting with Israel in Gaza, as mediators work to salvage the cease-fire that expires this weekend in the strip. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas has agreed to proceed with handing over four more dead hostages in exchange for Israel releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Egyptian officials said, potentially resolving a dispute that threatened to derail the current cease-fire in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

Al-Nasser Salah al-Deen Brigades, a Gaza-based militant group allied to Hamas, said on its telegram channel on Wednesday it will release the body of Israeli hostage Ohad Yahalomi on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff could travel to the Middle East on Sunday if negotiations on the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas go well, Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported on X on Tuesday. – Reuters

One-fifth of Israelis who were forced to evacuate their homes after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack have lost their jobs, the Israel Democracy Institute said on Tuesday, underlining the broader cost to the Israeli economy from the war in Gaza. – Reuters

Israel is considering an extension of the 42-day truce in Gaza as it seeks to bring home the remaining 63 hostages, while putting off agreement on the future of the enclave for now, Israeli officials said. – Reuters

An Israeli woman kidnapped by Hamas Palestinian militants recounted her ordeal at the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, telling the 15-member body she did not think she would make it out alive, and pleading for a ceasefire to continue – Reuters

Egypt should control Gaza for as long as 15 years, and oversee a transition toward Palestinian self-governance, in exchange for payment of its external debt, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said Tuesday in Washington. – Bloomberg

The renewed polio vaccination drive in Gaza is exceeding expectations, the World Health Organization said Tuesday, as it pleaded for ramped-up medical evacuations from the Strip and warned that US funding cuts could put a $46-million dent in the United Nations agency’s budget for Gaza. – Agence France-Presse

A senior adviser to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called on Hamas to step aside and allow the PA to govern Gaza, as Ramallah tries to capitalize on growing frustration with the terror group in Washington and the region. – Times of Israel

Mossad chief David Barnea waded into a public fight between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister on Tuesday, defending the former’s decision to hold off on the invasion of Lebanon and the infamous “beeper” operation against Hezbollah until almost a year into the war. – Times of Israel

The Shin Bet foiled a terror plot last month to use a powerful bomb against Israel Defense Forces soldiers in the West Bank, the security service said in a statement Tuesday. – Times of Israel

Editorial: We focus on the Bibas tragedy because of the children’s ages and the foggy uncertainty over their fate that the country had lived with over the last year and a half until the dreaded eventuality proved to be true – Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir were murdered in Hamas captivity. […] It’s imperative for them, and all the other hostages, both living and dead, to come home. As we bury the Bibas’s, let’s heed the words of released hostage Agam Berger, who said on Tuesday: “Don’t stop until the last hostage. Both the living and the dead must be returned to burial because that’s what they deserve.” – Jerusalem Post

A.J. Caschetta writes: Thus, Palestinian Arabs are left to live with the consequences of their decisions. Their inability to destroy Israel and unwillingness to abandon their dream of victory have kept them stateless and condemned their children to a life of misery. As John Podhoretz put it, “Like the Japanese and Germans in and after World War II, they have to be broken before they can be put back together as a functioning polis.” After eight decades of militancy and refusal to accept any deal for a state that does not eliminate the state of Israel, Palestinian Arabs find themselves unwelcome throughout the world. – Arutz Sheva

Blaise Misztal and Ari Cicurel write: Israel is still waiting on multiple weapons, not just 2,000-pound bombs, delayed by the Biden administration. Trump should force his State and Defense departments to advance any remaining stuck items and submit an emergency waiver to immediately deliver backlogged weapons to Israel. After months of delays, the United States should provide Israel with the weapons it needs as soon as possible. – Breaking Defense

Yair Rosenberg writes: But perhaps most chilling was the release of a hostage Hamas chose not to humiliate. For nearly 10 years, the group has imprisoned Hisham al-Sayed, a mentally ill Muslim Bedouin Israeli civilian who wandered into Gaza. As part of Saturday’s exchange, the terrorist group quietly released him without fanfare to the Red Cross, transferring the 37-year-old back to Israel sans ceremony or jeering crowds. It quickly became clear why. After reuniting with his son, al-Sayed’s father, Sha’aban, gave a devastating account to the press about his condition […]Hamas’s hostage propaganda is blunt and transparently self-serving. And like all theatrical performances, it requires a certain suspension of disbelief. Unlike most, however, it also requires a suspension of belief in humanity. – The Atlantic

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine has agreed to a mineral-rights deal with the U.S. that could be finalized as soon as Friday at a White House meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump has said he wants to see major economic deals with Moscow and is in advanced talks to put some together. But how viable a partner is Vladimir Putin’s Russia, its economy weakened by years of Western sanctions, its population falling and the prospect of aggressive state intervention rarely far away? – Wall Street Journal

An overnight Russian drone attack on the Kyiv region killed one person, injured at least two and set several houses on fire, Mykola Kalashnyk, governor of the region that surrounds the Ukrainian capital, said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Dozens of countries rallied behind Ukraine at a meeting at the United Nations in Geneva on Tuesday, a day after the U.N. Security Council adopted a U.S.-drafted resolution that takes a neutral stance on the conflict. – Reuters

Russia’s embassy in London said Britain’s new package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine was “illegitimate” and many of those targeted had no connection to the conflict. – Reuters

Russian defence units destroyed 83 Ukrainian drones over the country’s southern Krasnodar region in an overnight attack that damaged several houses including in the Black Sea port of Tuapse, Russian officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Moscow is working on bringing 16 children to Russia from Ukraine and plans to reunite 10 children with relatives in Ukraine, Russia’s presidential commissioner for children’s rights told RIA agency in remarks published on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Kremlin, asked about an assertion by U.S. President Donald Trump that Russia was open to European peacekeepers being deployed in Ukraine, referred reporters to an earlier statement that such a move would be unacceptable to Moscow. – Reuters

The estimated cost to rebuild Ukraine’s economy after Russia’s invasion has risen to $524 billion, nearly three times its expected 2024 economic output, the World Bank, United Nations, European Commission and the Ukrainian government found. – Reuters

NATO ally Poland on Tuesday deployed “military aviation” to its skies in response to strikes Russia launched at Ukrainian towns near the war-torn nation’s western borders. – Fox News

The change of international rhetoric over the hostilities in Ukraine heralds a positive sign for ending the conflict, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Agathe Demarais writes: Fiscally speaking, Russia is running out of time. The Kremlin has no plan D to finance its budget deficit, raising questions about its ability to fund the war. From this perspective, fiscal breathing room could well be what Putin is really looking for in his talks with the U.S. […]Back in September 2024, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s defense intelligence chief, predicted that mired in economic problems, Moscow would try to force an end to the war in 2025. These words may now be proving prescient. The reason Putin might finally be ready to negotiate seems to be remarkably simple: He wants to avoid a humiliating bankruptcy. – Politico

Dan Rice writes: The United States can’t keep carrying this burden alone. While we’ve doubled artillery shell production to 28,000 per month and sent cluster munitions to Ukraine, Europe has faltered. The EU’s pledge to deliver one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024 fell flat at 300,000, hampered by fragmented industries and a refusal to prioritize defense over politics. That’s now improved (production should reach 2 million this year) and shows how Europe can act when motivated. Cluster munitions and landmines aren’t optional — they’re necessities against a foe that outguns and outmans us. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Iraq

Iraq and oil major BP have signed a deal to redevelop four Kirkuk oil and gas fields, BP said on Tuesday, a breakthrough for Iraq, where output has been constrained by years of war, corruption and sectarian tensions. – Reuters

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, known for promoting the rule of law, returned to Baghdad Tuesday for the first time in more than two years despite ongoing security threats. – Associated Press

The US and Iraq discussed the resumption a major pipeline that can transport oil from the Middle Eastern country to global markets, after the link was shut almost two years ago following regional cost disputes. – Bloomberg

Arash Azizi writes: Iraq will hold parliamentary elections in October. If enough Iraqis reject pro-Tehran parties at the polls, as most did in 2021, Sudani or a successor may have the opportunity to form a government that does more to assert Iraqi sovereignty. Parties currently in the Coordination Framework could even break away from Tehran and run on new platforms. By the unwritten sectarian power-sharing deal that has ruled the country since 2003, the Iraqi prime minister must always be an Arab Shiite. But he is not guaranteed to be pro-Axis. – The Atlantic

Lebanon

The IDF struck Hezbollah terrorists in the area of the Beqaa in Lebanon on Tuesday, the army announced. Before the strike, terrorists were identified operating within a weapons production and storage facility. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Tuesday that Lebanon would not serve as a launch pad for attacks on other countries. – Haaretz

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for building a strong, modern army to cope with any war during a visit to a military academy, state media KCNA said on Wednesday. – Reuters

South Korea’s business leaders are taking action to offset the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, hiring his former aides and lobbying Republican states out of frustration with delays by their own government which is mired in a political crisis. – Reuters

South Korea’s Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun will travel to Washington D.C. from Wednesday through to Friday to press again for an exemption from U.S. steel tariffs and discuss ways to boost cooperation in energy and shipbuilding, his ministry said. – Reuters

In a final statement at his impeachment trial, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol defended his martial law decree that plunged the country into chaos as a bid to inform the public of the danger of the opposition-controlled parliament as he vowed Tuesday to push for political reform if reinstated. – Associated Press

South Asia

At least 21 members of two families died in flash floods on Tuesday in western province of Farah in Afghanistan, an Interior Ministry spokesman said. – Reuters

A British couple in their 70s was arrested by the Taliban due to a “misunderstanding” that they had fake Afghan passports, Abdul Mateen Qaniee, the spokesman for the Afghan Taliban interior ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will seek assistance from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enforce sanctions on Russia when the two leaders meet this week in New Delhi. – Bloomberg

Europe

Trump’s drive to negotiate a swift end to the war in Ukraine, and his desire for rapprochement with Russia, has leaders across Europe trying their hand at a skill they consider vital to the Continent’s security: Trump whispering. – Wall Street Journal

On Tuesday, the British government announced the biggest increase in military spending since the Cold War. In Germany, the incoming government is considering ways to ease a constitutional rule limiting debt to fund a significant increase in military power. Denmark last week said it would ratchet up its investment in the military, with its prime minister urging her Danish defense chief to “buy, buy, buy.” – Wall Street Journal

Europe should move from freezing Russian assets to seizing them, British foreign minister David Lammy said on Tuesday, hardening Britain’s position on how the West should use bonds and other securities frozen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters

Romania’s three opposition far-right parties filed a motion of no confidence in the pro-European coalition government on Tuesday, a move likely to fail but also to boost the parties’ public profile ahead of a re-run presidential election. – Reuters

Germany’s Left Party will vote against a special fund for increased military spending in the next legislature, party leader Ines Schwerdtner said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Four Hamas members suspected of plotting attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe went on trial in Berlin on Tuesday, in what prosecutors described as the first court case against militants of the Islamist group in Germany. – Reuters

The head of Switzerland’s armed forces and the chief of the neutral country’s intelligence services have both resigned their jobs, a Swiss lawmaker said on Tuesday, confirming media reports. – Reuters

Hungary wants to remove eight individuals from the European Union’s Russia sanctions list and receive fresh guarantees on Ukraine gas transit talks before agreeing to renew the restrictions, EU diplomats said. – Reuters

The British and Irish governments will explore whether to have talks with paramilitary groups that are still active and involved in crime in Northern Ireland to encourage them to disband, Britain’s minister for the region said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Serbian police raided the offices of two Belgrade-based democracy watchdogs, seeking information about possible abuse of funds donated by the U.S. international aid agency (USAID), Nenad Stefanovic, a senior state prosecutor, said on Tuesday. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday they welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s leadership in working towards a durable peace in Ukraine. – Reuters

The Italian government told judges at the European Union’s highest court on Tuesday that its transfers of migrants to asylum processing centers in Albania comply with EU and human rights laws. – Associated Press

Latvia’s foreign minister warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to achieve in peace talks what he hasn’t been able to accomplish in his war against Ukraine — weaken the United States and restore control over his smaller neighbor. – Associated Press

German lawmakers could move to ramp up defense spending even before a new parliament is sworn in next month, according to the country’s caretaker finance minister, Joerg Kukies. – Bloomberg

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he expects the US to provide backup for European troops to help maintain peace once a ceasefire is agreed between Ukraine and Russia. – Bloomberg

Germany’s Social Democrats indicated they’re open to the idea of financing a big increase in military spending by either loosening rules restricting government borrowing or creating another special fund. – Bloomberg

Leader of the United Kingdom’s Conservative opposition party, Kemi Badenoch, is calling for an investigation into the BBC’s “potential collusion with Hamas” after it came out that the corporation’s recent documentary about Gaza was narrated by the young son of a senior Hamas official. – New York Sun

European countries currently rely on the U.S. within the NATO alliance for a range of supporting capabilities and assets that allow combat forces to operate effectively. That dependency looks increasingly precarious as U.S. President Donald Trump signals willingness to abandon America’s long-time allies and align with Russia. – Defense News

Editorial: Mr. Trump might claim credit for scaring Europe into new military investment that Washington has long urged. Yet there’s a risk the U.S. could withdraw from Europe before Europe is ready to defend itself. The U.S. won’t benefit from whatever instability results. As foolish as it was for European leaders to let their militaries reach this point, it would be dangerous for America not to give them time to dig themselves out of the hole. – Wall Street Journal

James Fennell writes: If any one country could be credited with the NATO’s creation, it would be Britain. It understood in 1948, as it does now, that facing threats alone guarantees defeat. NATO’s demise would represent a national disaster, but that could be mitigated if its legacy is to provide the nexus of a new defense and security architecture that could hopefully include the US in some way. But while Europe can defend itself without the US, we all face a perilous transition that needs to be rapid and will likely be fractious, costly, and high-risk. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

Chile’s government imposed a curfew and declared a state of emergency in response to a sweeping blackout that cut electricity to most of the country and plunged the streets of the capital, Santiago, into chaos on Tuesday. – New York Times

Armed gangs launched a fresh attack on Haiti’s capital before dawn on Tuesday, killing residents in the Delmas 30 neighborhood and causing more residents to flee as gangs continue to operate unchecked in the Caribbean nation. – Reuters

Trinidad and Tobago plans to ask U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to extend a license for Shell and Trinidad’s National Gas Company to develop a key gas project in Venezuela, four sources close to the preparations said. – Reuters

The United States has expanded a visa restriction policy to target Cuban officials believed to be tied to a labor program that sends Cuban workers overseas, particularly healthcare workers, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United Nations has urged the international community to respond to what it called human rights violations by Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s government as it seeks to further consolidate power, according to a report published on Wednesday. – Reuters

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has named Armando Benedetti as the country’s new interior minister, a source within Petro’s office told Reuters on Tuesday, confirming his place in the leftist’s inner circle despite several scandals involving the ex-lawmaker and resistance from others in the cabinet. – Reuters

Support for Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has dipped sharply and now trail his disapproval rating, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Tuesday, the latest in a series of surveys pointing to views of the leftist leader turning negative. – Reuters

Panama said on Tuesday that it’s working to formalize a route long used to smuggle migrants on the way to the U.S., which is now being increasingly used to return migrants to South America in a reverse flow triggered by the Trump administration. – Associated Press

The world’s oldest guerrilla movement is close to gaining full control of a cocaine industry heartland in eastern Colombia through a surprise offensive that started just five weeks ago. – Bloomberg

Juanita Goebertus writes: Instead of pushing forward with rights-abusive deal making, the Trump administration should work with El Salvador’s government to develop a system of public safety that is built on respect for human rights and addressing structural causes of violence. This includes investing in crime prevention, ensuring detainees are released if there is no credible evidence that they committed a crime, and holding high-level gang leaders accountable. – The Hill

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday floated the idea of replacing a visa program for foreign investors with a so-called “gold card” that could be bought for $5 million as a route to American citizenship. – Reuters

Immigrants in the U.S. illegally who fail to register with the federal government could face significant fines, potential imprisonment or both, according to a directive issued by the Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday. – Reuters

A federal judge in Washington on Tuesday ordered the Trump administration to pay foreign aid funds to contractors and grant recipients by 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday night, saying there was no sign that it had taken any steps to comply with his earlier order that the administration’s freeze on the funds be lifted. – Reuters

President Donald Trump opened yet another front on Tuesday in his assault on global trade norms, ordering a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods. – Reuters

Defense

Former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and other former U.S. national security officials on Tuesday warned that China was outpacing the U.S. in critical technology fields and urged Congress to increase funding for federal scientific research. – Reuters

Trump signed an executive order in January to develop a next-generation homeland missile defense shield. The order – titled “The Iron Dome For America” shared a name with the successful, lowest tier of Israel’s multilayered air defense system of the same name. Yet the name sparked confusion that the order actually called for the use of the specific Israeli system to defend the homeland, which was never the case. – Defense News

The Army is getting a new leader after Daniel Driscoll secured enough Senate votes Tuesday to become the service’s secretary, allowing him to take the wheel for the organization as it pursues major transformation efforts across the force. – Defensescoop

Pentagon leaders are crafting a plan to shake up how they buy and field technology, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth starting things off by potentially directing that the department adopt the Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP) as the preferred method for software development. – Breaking Defense