Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The United States sent a group of F-22 Raptor jets to Israel on Tuesday, a U.S. official and a person familiar with the deployment said. The move continued the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and came two days before the next round of negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program was expected. – New York Times

Israel has warned Lebanon that it would strike the country hard, targeting civilian infrastructure including the airport, in the event that Hezbollah gets involved in any U.S.-Iran war, two senior Lebanese officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Israel on Wednesday for a two-day visit that both countries have cast as a chance to deepen relations, as regional concerns mount over the risk of military conflict between the United States and Iran. – Reuters

The U.S. will provide on-site passport services this week in a settlement in the West Bank, marking the first time American consular officials have offered such services to settlers in the occupied territory, U.S. officials said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Dozens of aid groups said they have petitioned Israel’s Supreme Court to allow them to keep operating in Gaza, warning of dire consequences if new rules obliging them to name staff force shutdowns. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said Israel is “absolutely committed to protecting our future, and to ensuring a region of prosperity, security and peace, not just for us, but for all those who will join us,” during a meeting with a delegation of ambassadors and diplomatic envoys to the United Nations visiting Jerusalem. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The strategic case is even broader than defense sales. Israel and India should expand joint work on critical infrastructure protection, supply chain security, AI governance for defense applications, food and water resilience, and emergency preparedness. These are the fields that will define national strength in the next decade. There is also a democratic argument that should not be ignored. India and Israel are very different countries, but both operate under relentless scrutiny and persistent security threats. […] It should also begin a more ambitious agenda. If this trip produces a timetable for FTA negotiations, a serious investment push, and a cross-ministerial mechanism to track delivery in core sectors, it will matter long after the headlines fade. Israel and India already have a strong relationship. Today’s task is to make it consequential at a much larger scale. – Jerusalem Post

Emmanuel Navon writes: Finally, Modi’s visit highlights a broader shift in Israel’s engagement with Asia. Just as Washington and Berlin anchor Israel’s strategic posture in the West, New Delhi and Tokyo now function as Israel’s two decisive capitals in Asia. India anchors the continental and industrial dimension of Asian power; Japan anchors its maritime, financial, and technological core. Israel is not merely aligning with these powers. It is contributing to their strength through security expertise, innovation under pressure, and integration capacity. The emerging international order will not be shaped by states that wait on the sidelines or rely on ambiguity as a strategy. It will be shaped by states that build corridors, capabilities, and coalitions. India and Israel are doing exactly that. Modi’s visit underscores that India and Israel are no longer reacting to the emerging order. They are shaping it. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

The U.S. State Department told the Ukrainian government to refrain from hitting U.S. interests following a Ukrainian attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, Kyiv’s ambassador to Washington said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the war there remained “as a stain on our collective conscience” and reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire. – Reuters

Ukraine dismissed on Tuesday as “absurd” a Russian claim that Kyiv was trying to obtain nuclear weapons with the help of Britain and France. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday ordered the FSB security service to step up protection of Russia’s energy and transport infrastructure in response to Ukrainian attacks that he said were conducted with the help of Western intelligence. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a statement warning of the risk of a direct clash between nuclear powers and the grave consequences such a clash could have. – Reuters

Ukrainian drone maker Skyfall is in talks with Denmark about becoming the second defence firm from the war-torn country to establish production on Danish soil, the Nordic country’s defence ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Democratic and Republican U.S. senators introduced a resolution on Tuesday supporting Ukraine as it battles Russian invaders, hours before President Donald Trump was due to make his nationally televised State of the Union address to the nation. – Reuters

Canada is giving Ukraine C$300 million ($220 million) in new military aid and will impose sanctions on 100 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet, Defence Minister David McGuinty told reporters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine’s envoy to the US said the Trump administration protested its attack on an oil pipeline terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast that disrupted oil flows from US energy majors in Kazakhstan. – Bloomberg

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc will deliver on its €90 billion ($106 billion) loan package to Ukraine “one way or another” as the war-battered nation is set to run out of funds in a matter of weeks. – Bloomberg

Mounting Russian casualties are likely to hinder President Vladimir Putin’s ability to launch a large-scale offensive against Ukraine in the coming months, according to Western officials. – Bloomberg

The US strategy of pressuring Ukraine in peace talks is failing, the European Union’s top diplomat said, arguing that President Donald Trump should instead lean on Russia. – Bloomberg

The UN General Assembly voiced support for Ukraine on Tuesday on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, with the United States among countries abstaining from the vote. – Agence France-Presse

Russia is betting on its submarines and experimental nuclear weapons to make up for the smaller military force that it fields compared to NATO, a top Norwegian military official told Business Insider. – Business Insider

Editorial: The incidents also underscore the risks of a bad peace in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin still wants to subdue Ukraine and then turn his sights on Moldova, the Baltic nations, and more. One risk involves Russian soldiers currently fighting in Ukraine. These combatants are “a fertile recruitment base for Russian intelligence services,” Estonia warned in a memo to European Union members that we’ve reviewed. Russia is conducting a hot war in Ukraine and a cold war with the rest of Europe. Recognizing the threat is the first step to deterring it. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: All wars must end, as will this invasion. The question is on what terms, because those will determine how allies and foes around the world look at US reliability as a defense partner; whether Moscow sees a future in gaining territory and influence by force; whether Ukraine emerges as a benefit or burden to Europe’s security and economy; and the future stability and wealth of Europe, which remains America’s most important trading and investment partner. Those stakes are simply too high for a quick and dirty peace deal, even now, after four years of bloodshed. – Bloomberg

Mykyta Vorobiov writes: Such purges, alongside the switch to new technology and plans to reform mobilization, signal a transformation of the ministry’s purpose. While it has previously been associated with procurement and fulfilment of the army’s needs, Fedorov’s ambitions appear to go further. The success of his reforms will determine whether he will fix or deepen the ongoing crises in the Ministry of Defense. The last thing the army needs is even more of the political infighting that already plagues its work. – Center for European Policy Analysis

David Kirichenko writes: Kyiv understands that no piece of paper can guarantee its security, especially after the lessons of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Agreements can be signed, but they depend on political will, and years into the full-scale invasion Western leaders were often hesitant to provide weapons Ukraine urgently needed. For Kyiv, a strong domestic defense industrial base that equips its own army and can eventually export at scale is the only durable safeguard. The goal is not necessarily to defeat Russia in one decisive campaign, but to make its aggression operationally futile. If Ukraine can adapt faster, produce at scale, and neutralize key capabilities across domains, Moscow may continue to fight but it will not be able to win. – National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

When Turkey’s Cagri Bey deep-sea drilling vessel set off for Somalia on Feb. 15, it marked the latest manifestation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions in Africa. – Bloomberg

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji on Tuesday urged the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah not to get involved in any fighting between the United States and Iran, expressing concerns about a new possible conflict with Israel. – Associated Press

The United States has set a Friday deadline for Iraq to form a government free of Iranian influence or face potential sanctions, Saudi television channel Al-Hadath reported. – Jerusalem Post

Aviram Bellaishe writes: The Brotherhood operates as a transnational network. The response cannot be national. An imam in Berlin, a journalist in London, a content creator in Casablanca can reach the same young Muslim in Lyon, if they have a platform that crosses borders as effectively as the Brotherhood’s own. Not a government megaphone. A network. Some of that competition happens in the open. Some must reach into the closed spaces themselves: not through government agents, but through credible voices operating where the Brotherhood currently speaks unchallenged. Everything proposed here is already practiced against comparable threats: counter-messaging against ISIS, influence operations against Russian disinformation, and disruption of white-supremacist networks. The missing element is the decision to apply it to an adversary misclassified for two decades. Somewhere in America, a 19-year-old is scrolling for meaning. The Brotherhood has an answer for him. Washington finally has the sanctions. It still doesn’t have the idea. – Jerusalem Post

Yoram Ettinger writes: “Textbooks continue to teach antisemitic content…. portraying Jews as materialistic, arrogant, deceitful, and hostile to Islam. Jews are further associated with traits such as lying, scheming, fleeing in fear, spreading discord, breaching agreements, and excessive attachment to material wealth, thereby reinforcing an image of Jews as fundamentally untrustworthy…. Antisemitic tropes depict Jews as cynically manipulating global affairs… denying Jewish historical ties to Israel/Palestine and the right to self-determination. “Violent interpretations of jihad prevail as religious ideals…. Textbooks praise the upbringing of children ‘to love jihad,’ and students are taught that God rewards those who fight and die for Islam by granting them entry into Paradise. “Israel’s establishment is framed as ‘occupation’…. Israel is erased from maps, and normalization is condemned…. Poems exhort students to draw swords, engage in jihad, and sacrifice their lives fighting against ‘the Zionist enemy. – Arutz Sheva

China

Long dependent on the U.S. for its security and on China for its growth, Germany is trying to chart its own path. But a pair of high-stakes visits by its new leader to Beijing and Washington over the next week shows the process will be neither easy nor fast. – Wall Street Journal

China’s ongoing military corruption purges are leaving serious deficiencies in its command structure and are likely to have hampered the readiness of its rapidly modernising armed forces, a leading defence research centre said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Trump administration wants stable relations with China but does not trust the country, a senior State Department official said at a congressional hearing on Tuesday. – Reuters

Submarines are among the most secretive of China’s military assets, but a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarine – or SSN for short – has shown up in satellite imagery after recently moving to a launch bay at the Bohai Shipyard in Huludao. – Defense News

Editorial: Japan’s economy is large and resilient enough to withstand this pressure for some time, but not forever without help. Its trading partners could assist, especially if Mr. Trump drops his out-of-date economic worries about Japanese competition with the U.S. and gives an ally a boost instead. European nations also have a stake in helping Tokyo resist this coercion, before China starts turning its economic guns on them. The first opportunity will be President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing, where trade policy will be on the agenda. If Mr. Trump insists on going, he can at least use the visit to remind Chinese President Xi Jinping that America’s interests in the region include the prosperity and defense of our allies. – Wall Street Journal

Zev Stub writes: The report recommended Israel push against the trend by preserving diplomatic ties with China while setting clear red lines and boundaries against antisemitic expressions. It also suggests increasing ongoing monitoring of Chinese discourse, and strengthening academic and cultural cooperation where possible.“We must view the phenomenon with clear eyes,” Stern wrote. “The diplomatic consequences are practical and immediate. Israel must continue to maintain its invaluable relationship with the United States while preserving room for constructive engagement with China. It must mobilize Jewish communities worldwide and join forces with governments – especially in Europe – that consistently condemn antisemitic speech and actions, and impose penalties for such conduct.” – Times of Israel

Joel Wuthnow writes: For China’s opponents, the key will be directly influencing Xi’s calculus. Military deterrence, such as exercises and the revelation of new capabilities, will be of little use if China’s military leadership is either too confident to be intimidated, or too intimidated by Xi to deliver bad news. Information underscoring the heavy risks, not only military but also economic and political, of a gamble on Taiwan must be messaged directly to Xi by his foreign counterparts. An example of effective messaging came in April 2023 when European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen warned Xi about the dangers of unilateral changes to the status quo. Statements from leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron suggesting that they might sit out a Taiwan conflict send the wrong signal. The essence of deterrence in the late 2020s and early 2030s will be whether the West and other supporters of Taiwan can speak truth to power in a way that might elude Xi’s own generals. – War on the Rocks

Asia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday he did not take his security for granted, after he was evacuated from his residence for several hours following an alleged bomb threat. – Reuters

More than 600 Kenyans lured to Cambodia by the promise of jobs who say they were kept there against their will in a trafficking scheme sought on Tuesday to force their government to bring them home. – Reuters

A Japanese national has been detained in Iran and must be swiftly released, the Japanese government said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Japan plans to deploy surface-to-air missiles to its remote western island near Taiwan by March 2031, its defence minister said, as regional tensions simmer. – BBC

Eugene Chausovsky writes: Iran shares Russia’s opposition to such East-West connectivity projects for many of the same reasons (as well as Azerbaijan’s economic and security ties with Israel), and its escalating tensions with the United States are likely to create greater uncertainty in that regard. If the Iranian government can survive its own domestic turbulence, this could drive Tehran and Moscow even further together in opposing such U.S. activity in the region. But if significant political changes in Iran come as a result of unrest and pressure from the United States, then this could create further momentum for initiatives like the TRIPP. Many players have their own interests in shaping the region. U.S. efforts to help normalize ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan and advance the TRIPP will serve as a crucial hinge for Eurasian geopolitics—and a potential model for efforts elsewhere. – Foreign Policy

Africa

South Africa’s government said on Tuesday that 11 of a group of 17 men who were lured into fighting for Russia in Ukraine were set to return home soon, after an initial four landed back in the country last week. – Reuters

The military spokesperson for the M23 rebel group, Willy Ngoma, was killed in an army drone strike in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday, two senior rebel officials, a regional diplomat, and a Western adviser to the government said. – Reuters

Sierra Leone on Tuesday accused Guinea of capturing several members of its security forces, in the latest flare-up of a long-running row over border territory. – Reuters

Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko pushed on Tuesday for a draft law that would double the maximum prison term from five to 10 years for same-sex practices and other conduct deemed unnatural, part of a wider crackdown on LGBT people. – Reuters

About 6.5 million people in Somalia face acute hunger due to drought, the government and the United Nations said on Tuesday, sounding the alarm days after the U.N.’s food agency warned that food aid could grind to a halt by April without new funding. – Reuters

“Fundamental differences” remain between Senegal and the International Monetary Fund in talks for a new lending programme, the country’s finance minister Cheikh Diba told lawmakers on Tuesday. – Reuters

An attack by Sudanese paramilitary forces on a stronghold of a Darfur tribal leader left at least 28 people dead, a doctors group said Tuesday, the latest in a devastating war with no resolution in sight. – Associated Press

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has named a new inspector-general of police who will lead efforts to stem rising violence by armed groups, underscoring persistent security challenges in the country despite US military support. – Bloomberg

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir appointed Salvatore Garang Mabiordit as finance minister, the ninth time he’s replaced the head of the oil-producing nation’s Treasury in less than six years. – Bloomberg

America’s new ambassador to South Africa struck a conciliatory note in a video message to the country that contrasted sharply with the bellicose comments by President Donald Trump. – Bloomberg

Nigeria’s government has rejected a media report alleging that it paid a “huge” ransom to Islamist militant group Boko Haram to secure the release of more than 200 pupils and staff abducted from a Catholic boarding school in November. – BBC

Israel’s peripatetic President Isaac Herzog is on the move again. Barely two weeks after his return from Australia, Herzog began a two-day state visit to Ethiopia on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The president of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi, is expected to make his first official visit to Israel at the end of March, according to two sources familiar with the matter. – Jerusalem Post

North America

Mexico’s drug cartels began controlling and holding territory in the 1980s to maximize profits from pumping Colombian cocaine into the U.S. and protect their businesses from government control. Their power expanded over the past decade with the rise of fentanyl. – Wall Street Journal

Canada’s aviation regulator has approved for flying Gulfstream’s G700 and G800 aircraft models, potentially bringing to a close a trade row with Washington. – Wall Street Journal

The violence in the Puerto Vallarta area is unnerving America’s community of expat retirees in Mexico, a destination popular with the growing number of people retiring abroad. – Wall Street Journal

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday she is considering legal action following a comment by tech billionaire Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, that alleged she was connected to drug cartels. – Reuters

Honduras became the latest nation to announce it will quit using Cuban medical workers, as Washington continues to choke off sources of funding for the government in Havana. – Bloomberg

The Trump administration issued a fiery warning to Mexican drug cartels on Tuesday as hundreds of Americans remain stranded in Mexico following an explosion in violence across the country. – Fox News

The Mexican government said the security situation in the western state of Jalisco has “stabilized” after an explosion of cartel-linked violence following the death of kingpin Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” – Fox News

Cybersecurity

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei until Friday to comply with the Pentagon’s demands on using its artificial-intelligence models or face cancellation of the company’s contract, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

Authorities in Russia have opened an investigation into Telegram founder and tech mogul Pavel Durov on suspicion of “abetting terrorist activities,” a sign that the widely used messenger app — deeply embedded in everyday life and a key communications tool for Russian troops in Ukraine — may soon face an official ban in the country. – Washington Post

The U.S. on Tuesday issued cyber-related sanctions against four people and three entities, including some based in Russia and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Treasury Department website. – Reuters

The Information Commissioner’s Office has fined Reddit £14.47 million for unlawfully processing the data of young children. Data protection law in the U.K. requires parental consent to process personal data of children aged under 13, but the U.K.’s data watchdog said the social media platform had failed to implement robust age assurance mechanisms, meaning it was unable to adequately determine the age of users. – Politico

Hackers tied to one of North Korea’s most sophisticated state-backed groups have been seen deploying Medusa ransomware in financially-motivated attacks on at least two institutions. – Cyberscoop

John Allen and Alexandr Burilkov write: Cyber deterrence should therefore not be understood as a binary condition. Instead, it is a process. It depends on reducing adversary gains through denial, raising costs through coordinated response, and embedding cyber considerations into broader escalation planning. Cyberspace can no longer be treated as a regulatory silo or technical specialty, but must become a primary arena of strategic competition—albeit one below the threshold of war. Europe’s challenge is not a lack of strategy. It is the persistent gap between ambition and execution. Until signaling, crisis management, and cross-domain coordination become routine rather than exceptional, cyber deterrence will remain a concept that reassures policymakers more than it restrains adversaries. – National Interest