Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

As a cease-fire that halted a 15-month-long war nears its end on Saturday, Israel and the U.S. are trying to push Hamas to extend the first phase of the truce, delaying a discussion of the hardest parts of a pact that would see a complete end to the war. – Wall Street Journal

For months, leaders of Hamas have defended the militant group’s decision to launch the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, even though it ignited a devastating Israeli offensive that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza and reduced the territory to rubble. – New York Times

Israeli bulldozers have demolished large areas of the now virtually empty Jenin refugee camp and appear to be carving wide roadways through its once-crowded warren of alleyways, echoing tactics already employed in Gaza as troops prepare for a long-term stay. – Reuters

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday he does not want his country’s relationship with Europe to be “held hostage” by views on the conflict with Palestinians, as Israel resumed a dialogue with the European Union strained by the war in Gaza. – Reuters

Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday he had invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit and would find a way for him to do so without being arrested under a warrant by the International Criminal Court. – Reuters

The Israeli army said on Tuesday an earlier report of suspected aerial targets in the Golan Heights area was the result of false identification. – Reuters

Israel on Monday denied entry to two European Union lawmakers, accusing one of promoting boycotts of the country. – Associated Press

Brigade 474 of Division 210 has carried out dozens of short attacks deeper into Syria beyond the Israeli buffer zone within southern Syria, the IDF said on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

The Hamas terror group was reportedly considering a deal Monday to transfer the bodies of two slain hostages to Egypt in exchange for hundreds of prisoners previously slated for release, as international mediators sought to salvage a fraying ceasefire deal in Gaza. – Times of Israel

Israel joined the US and Russia in voting against a United Nations General Assembly resolution calling to reaffirm Ukraine’s territorial integrity on Monday, rejecting a strongly worded condemnation of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor on the war’s third anniversary. – Times of Israel

Melanie Phillips writes: So as the West’s cultural elites undermine and hollow out their own civilization, the Islamist death cult is moving in for the kill — with the Palestinian Arabs creating the Trojan Horse of the Middle East. It’s high time the West woke up to the bitter reality of the entire Palestinian cause, and to the way its own agenda of cultural self-loathing has softened it up for the triumph of its enemies. – New York Post

David Christopher Kaufman writes: As the first phase of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel comes to an end, so, too, might the weekly hostage “auctions” that have been among its most defining optics. Most Israelis, of course, pray this exodus from slavery to freedom will continue into phase two. One can only shudder when imagining the diabolical displays Hamas is already planning. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

The U.S. sided with Russia and China to win the United Nations Security Council’s backing for a resolution crafted in Washington that didn’t blame Moscow for the Ukraine war and called for a swift end to the conflict, as President Trump said he was in talks with Russia about an economic-development deal. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s high-speed effort to end the war in Ukraine is on a collision course with Russia’s negotiating tactics and President Vladimir Putin’s goals in the conflict. – Wall Street Journal

Moscow would be open to allowing U.S. access to Russia’s rare minerals, President Vladimir Putin said Monday, an apparent counteroffer and pressure tactic as the Trump administration pushes Ukraine to sign over half its mineral wealth as repayment for U.S. support in the war. – Washington Post

Leaders from across Europe and Canada assembled in Kyiv on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion as uncertainty grows over U.S. support for Ukraine. – Washington Post

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine set a somber tone on Monday for the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, posting a short video praising Ukrainians for their sacrifices and honoring those who died. – New York Times

No public events. No speeches, memorial church services for fallen soldiers or mentions on state television. Three years after sending troops across the border into Ukraine, Russian officials are marking the anniversary on Monday with a resounding silence. – New York Times

Europe’s participation in Ukraine peace talks will be needed eventually but Moscow first wants to build trust with Washington, President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, while suggesting that a deal to end the conflict may still be far off. – Reuters

Ukraine could join the European Union before 2030 if the country continues its reforms at their current speed and quality, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Kyiv on Monday. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday that countries must work to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, calling for a just and lasting peace on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters

Russia wants a long-term peace deal over Ukraine that tackles what it regards as the root causes of the conflict and not a quick U.S.-backed ceasefire followed by a swift restart of fighting, a senior Russian diplomat told the RIA news agency. – Reuters

A Russian air attack injured a 44-year-old woman and damaged several houses in the Kyiv region, Mykola Kalashnyk, governor of the region that surrounds the Ukrainian capital, said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Editorial: It has been able to resist because of the steadfast support of President Joe Biden and Europe’s leaders, who rallied against Putin’s land grab in defense of Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity, and to protect the postwar international order. Now, Trump wants to reduce support for Ukraine’s sovereignty to a mercantilist deal over its mineral wealth — with none of the security guarantees Ukraine needs to remain viable in the face of a revanchist Russia. As the terms of the deal currently stand, Zelensky is right to refuse. – Washington Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: Mr. Putin may well pocket all the concessions Washington offers him and then double down on both his alliance with China and his aggression in Ukraine. Japan sees Mr. Trump’s cavalier attitude toward longstanding allies in Europe as a threat to its own security. Henry Wallace ultimately came to regret his naiveté of the 1940s. We shall see how President Trump ends up. – Wall Street Journal

Brahma Chellaney writes: A U.S.-Russia peace deal must be reached before Beijing and Moscow can cement a strategic axis that erodes America’s global primacy and increases Taiwan’s vulnerability. A Chinese annexation of Taiwan would reshape the global order, ending America’s global preeminence and undermining its alliance system. – The Hill

Kurt Volker writes: If these four pillars do not come together, Trump may well be tempted to throw Ukraine under the bus. But if they do — ceasefire, reciprocity, deterrence and burden-sharing — it would satisfy Trump’s policy objectives, while guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty, independence, and future security. And that, in turn, buys time for Ukraine that extends beyond the next four years. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Turkey

Turkey said on Monday it was ready to host possible talks between Ukraine and Russia and would support any initiative leading to peace, following a visit to Ankara by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. – Reuters

Iraq is waiting for Turkey’s approval to restart the oil flows from the Iraqi Kurdistan region, the Iraqi oil minister said on Monday, adding that Kurdish oil exports will hopefully be ready in two days. – Reuters

Turkey is negotiating an agreement with Turkmenistan to extend a natural gas supply deal for five years, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told the Hurriyet daily on Tuesday, noting that the deal is expected to be finalised within the year. – Reuters

Turkiye’s interior ministry announced on Monday the removal of a 10th pro-Kurdish party mayor in eastern Turkiye in less than a year for alleged ties. – Agence France Presse

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to make a closing statement on Tuesday in a Constitutional Court trial reviewing his impeachment, as public hearings wrap up and his political fate is placed in the hands of eight judges. – Reuters

At least four people died and six were injured on Tuesday after a collapse at a highway construction site in an area south of the South Korean capital, Seoul, fire authorities said. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country has come a long way in building a powerful army but weapons without ideology are simply “ironware”, as he stressed loyalty to some of its most elite military cohorts, state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

A fleet of Chinese fishing vessels used North Korean crews between 2019 and 2024 in violation of U.N. bans, and many people were apparently subjected to abuses including being trapped at sea for years, a report said Monday. – Associated Press

South Asia

India and Britain will aim to more than double bilateral trade in a decade, Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday, as the two countries resumed trade talks under the shadow of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Bangladesh has resumed direct trade with Pakistan for the first time since its independence in 1971, with the first shipment of 50,000 tonnes of rice leaving Port Qasim under a government-to-government deal, officials said. – Reuters

Nepal said on Monday seven more projects funded by the United States have been put on hold after President Donald Trump suspended foreign development assistance. – Reuters

The Taliban on Monday confirmed the arrest of a British couple in their 70s in Afghanistan after a plea from their children for their release. – Associated Press

Residents in southern Bangladesh on Monday attacked an air force base following an altercation, prompting soldiers from the base to open fire, killing at least one person and injuring several others, local media reported. – Associated Press

Pakistani security forces raided a militant hideout in the restive northwest near the Afghan border, killing 10 militants, the military said Monday. – Associated Press

Europe

Sunday’s German election could be the last chance for Europe’s centrist rulers, under assault from populist parties and an antagonistic U.S. administration, to show they can solve the region’s piling problems. – Wall Street Journal

French police are investigating two explosions in the garden of the Russian Consulate in the southern city of Marseille, after three plastic soda bottles were thrown into the building’s compound. – Wall Street Journal

French President Emmanuel Macron tried Monday to bend President Donald Trump back to the side of Kyiv and Europe, after an intense White House effort to end the war in Ukraine in which the U.S. leader blamed Ukraine, not Russia, for the invasion by the Kremlin three years ago. – Washington Post

Hungary’s government will draft legislation to protect national sovereignty and, following the example of the new U.S. government, will uncover foreign funding channelled to Hungarian media, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Monday. – Reuters

Bulgaria will ask the European Commission and the European Central Bank for an assessment on whether the Balkan country meets all criteria to join the euro zone in January next year, its finance minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Germany’s political newcomer, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), said on Monday it might legally challenge the results of the national election after narrowly missing the 5% hurdle to enter parliament. – Reuters

The United States will lose if Russia wins its war in Ukraine, Finland’s president said on Monday, as fears mount in Europe about President Donald Trump’s intentions three years after Moscow’s invasion. – Reuters

Spain will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth 1 billion euros ($1.05 billion) this year, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Monday in Kyiv during an international meeting held on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. – Reuters

Britain will ban entry to individuals who provide significant support to the Russian state or owe their wealth to the Russian state, under new sanctions set to be announced on Monday, exactly three years after Russia invaded Ukraine. – Reuters

A hard-right British politician has been charged with accepting bribes to make favorable statements about Russia in the European Parliament. – Associated Press

The UK has imposed sanctions on 10 China-based companies it says are enabling Russia’s defense industry, as part of its largest package of economic measures against Vladimir Putin’s regime since 2022. – Bloomberg

Lee Hockstader writes: At his victory celebration, Merz broached replacing NATO with an “independent European defense capability.” It’s a radical idea, but Merz has been unflinching about what inspires it: an American president who, he said last week, “admires autocratic systems and rides roughshod over all kinds of norms.” That’s exactly the sort of straight talk Europe needs. – Washington Post

Anda Bologa writes: Done right, Europe’s Global Gateway can show that big, bold digital projects thrive on transparency and real local input. Tangible European successes could tip the scales toward an open, human rights-based vision of connectivity, building real trust with the Global South and gaining credibility in negotiations to outmaneuver authoritarian threats. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

TFI International said it would keep its corporation status in Canada, reversing a plan revealed just five days ago to redomicile to the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Dozens of Venezuelan migrants boarded small boats on an island off the Caribbean coast of Panama on Monday, setting off towards Colombia by sea as part of a reverse migration of families who have given up trying to reach the United States. – Reuters

The leading candidates vying to replace Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spent considerable time during a televised debate on Monday discussing the need to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Accused Mexican drug kingpin Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada is willing to plead guilty in a deal with prosecutors in the United States if the arrangement spares him from the death penalty, his lawyer told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

The Group of Seven nations are still discussing a possible joint statement to mark the third anniversary of the war between Ukraine and Russia, Canada’s foreign minister said on Monday, noting a disagreement with Washington’s position on the conflict. – Reuters

Haitian police officers Monday demanded better protection and treatment a day after gunmen killed a Kenyan police officer who was part of a U.N.-backed mission tasked with fighting gangs in the troubled Caribbean country. – Associated Press

Mexico is weighing possible levies on Chinese imports as it pushes for a deal to avoid the 25% tariffs that President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on its goods before a deadline in early March. – Bloomberg

Argentina’s Luis Caputo is the latest economy minister to skip a meeting of G-20 finance chiefs in South Africa, following a similar decision by the US delegation. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Taiwan’s economy minister said on Tuesday his ministry had not received information about an overseas investment application by Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW), when asked about possible investment in Intel (INTC.O), and the United States. – Reuters

Google could be required to pay up to 500 million rand ($27.29 million) a year in compensation to South African media outlets after the country’s competition watchdog found the tech giant guilty of anti-competitive practices, while Meta and X also face fines. – Reuters

Cybersecurity researchers say North Korean hackers are behind the largest cryptocurrency heist in history and are actively laundering the more than $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency stolen from the Bybit exchange on Friday. – The Record

Australia has prohibited government officials from using cybersecurity software from the Russian firm Kaspersky Lab, citing concerns over foreign interference, espionage and sabotage. – The Record

Matt Pearl, Julia Brock, and Anoosh Kumar write: In this regard, as unfortunate as it is that DeepSeek has no safety guardrails, this fact presents an opening: Governments outside the United States can prohibit any AI models that fail to take safety into account or otherwise threaten privacy, security, or digital sovereignty. […] Such a move would show that such governments are serious about promoting responsible AI and protecting their citizens from potential harm. – Center for Strategic and International Studies