Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

President Biden made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday, a dramatic show of solidarity with Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, days before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of the country. – Wall Street Journal

Top oversight officials responsible for tracking over $110 billion in U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine said they would press to deploy auditors and investigators directly into the war zone to beef up monitoring as the scale and scope of American assistance expands. – Wall Street Journal

A scientist who swapped Antarctica for Bakhmut, a famed ballet dancer and the actor who dubbed Captain America into Ukrainian all left stellar careers to fight on the front line. – Wall Street Journal

Nearly one year into the brutal and costly war in Ukraine, Western leaders pledged to remain steadfast in their support for Kyiv amid worries about whether their unity can survive what France’s president called “a prolonged conflict.” – New York Times

Vice President Kamala Harris declared on Saturday that the United States had formally concluded that Russia has committed “crimes against humanity” in its invasion of Ukraine, and warned China against providing any kind of support to Moscow’s war effort. – New York Times

A Nobel Peace Prize winner from South America has warned that the West’s heavy focus on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks alienating much of the rest of the world, which is dealing with the consequences of higher energy and food prices stemming from the war. – New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver a highly symbolic state of the nation address Tuesday to the Federal Assembly — or both houses of the country’s parliament — as the invasion of Ukraine nears its first anniversary this week. – Washington Post

Top officials on Sunday called for more tools to penalize Russia as its invasion of Ukraine nears its first anniversary and fresh concerns have arisen about the possibility that China may be getting ready to support Russia in the war effort. – Washington Post

More than 30,000 members of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit, have been injured or killed in Ukraine, the White House estimates. Of those, about 9,000 were killed in action, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing Friday. – Washington Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Western leaders Friday to “speed up” their support for Kyiv in its fight against Russia. “There is no alternative to speed. Because it’s what saves lives,” he said at the Munich Security Conference. – Washington Post

A week before the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, met in Moscow on Friday. They mostly avoided discussion of the war — a sign of their awkward alliance, and even more awkward political relationship. – Washington Post

Over the past year, as Western governments have ramped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Moscow, U.S. and European security services have been waging a parallel if less visible campaign to cripple Russian spy networks. – Washington Post

A Russian court sentenced two defendants to three-and-a-half years in a strict regime colony for plotting to sabotage the railway in a region bordering Ukraine, the first convictions for sabotage since Russia’s invasion, media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine is hoping to clinch a multi-year support programme of at least $15 billion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday after meeting the head of the International Monetary Fund. – Reuters

His army has made three humiliating retreats in Ukraine in the past year and nearly 200,000 of his men have been killed or wounded according to U.S. officials, but Russia’s defence minister is still in a job thanks to President Vladimir Putin. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview published on Sunday that Ukraine would maintain its months-long defence of the eastern city of Bakhmut, mindful of the price paid in human lives. – Reuters

Ramzan Kadyrov, the ally of President Vladimir Putin who leads Chechnya, said on Sunday that he one day planned to set up his own private military company in the style of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group of mercenaries. – Reuters

Blasts wounded two civilians and shattered several hundred windows in the west Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi as Russia fired missiles from the Black Sea on Saturday, Ukrainian officials said. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday that the U.S. government has had conversations with Elon Musk about the use of Starlink satellite internet in Ukraine. – Reuters

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) praised President Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine on Monday, saying the trip to the war-torn country was “the right signal to send at the right time.” – The Hill

A group of American, European and Russian national security professionals are urging nuclear weapons states to strengthen safeguards surrounding deployment procedures of the weapons, warning that Russia’s war in Ukraine is raising the risk of an unintended nuclear confrontation. – The Hill

Russia called the U.S. the “primary source” of international tensions after Washington expressed support for Ukrainian strikes in Crimea and accused Russia of war crimes. – The Hill

The White House provided Russian officials with advance warning that President Biden would be traveling to Ukraine to mark the approaching anniversary of Russia’s invasion to avoid escalating tensions, administration officials said Monday. – The Hill

The determination that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in its war against Ukraine is an attempt to demonize Moscow, argued Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., blasting Biden administration officials just a day after Vice President Harris confirmed the findings. – The Hill

The Biden administration is facing mounting pressure from U.S. lawmakers and Ukrainian officials to equip Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets as Russia’s war approaches its one-year anniversary later this week. – The Hill

Six Russian soldiers were killed in the country’s Kursk region in a fire blamed on a “gross violation” of safety rules, Russian state media reported on February 20, citing the Defense Ministry. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis slammed President Joe Biden during an appearance on Fox & Friends Monday morning, chiding the commander in chief’s “blank check” policy on the war in Ukraine as it enters the one-year mark. – Washington Examiner

A Republican political consultant was sentenced to 18 months in prison for funneling money from a Russian national to a presidential campaign in 2016. – Washington Examiner

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is urging President Joe Biden to provide Ukraine with the fighter jets Kyiv has requested for months. – Washington Examiner

Less than half of the financial aid pledged to Ukraine by the west has actually reached Kyiv since Russia’s invasion last year, according to analysis of international financial support. – Financial Times

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has admonished Germany’s allies for failing to deliver tanks to Ukraine after having spent months urging Berlin to do so. – Financial Times

Nearly a month after announcing its decision to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the United States is still deciding which version is best and whether it will pull those vehicles from existing stockpiles or have them produced, according to a top US State Department official. – Breaking Defense

Editorial: This is a pivotal moment in 21st-century history and a critical juncture for U.S. interests, leadership and prestige. The crucial objective should be fortifying Ukraine so that Russia’s unwarranted war is understood by dictators as a cautionary tale — and not as a template for remaking the world to their liking. – Washington Post

Editorial: It is the only way Russians can start to reverse their economic and social alienation from Europe and the only way Europeans can reaffirm the postwar order that brought them decades of relative stability, prosperity and security. But serious diplomacy has a chance only if Russia accepts that it cannot bring Ukraine to its knees. And for that to happen, the United States and its allies cannot waver in their support. – New York Times

Mary Elise Sarotte writes: The greatest damage has, of course, been done to Ukrainians. They have faced unspeakable war crimes and immense suffering with bravery and dignity. Further from the front, others will be forced to adapt to bitter new realities as well: a new generation of western policymakers will have to learn the rigours of great-power military competition in Europe. Sadly, the European past provides abundant examples for them to study. As I will be telling my classes again this week: history matters. And so does the unravelling of twisted tales.. – Financial Times

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes: The U.S. and NATO, in their innermost sanctum, should be asking themselves a question and probably are: Would this war already be over if they had sent a couple dozen F-35s to assert mastery over the skies of at least Western Ukraine on or about day 14? – Wall Street Journal

Gerard Baker writes: Instead of worrying publicly about the softening of American—he means Republican—support for a long hot war with an uncertain outcome, the president should start building support for a cold peace in which the nation can achieve its larger objectives. – Wall Street Journal

Eugene Robinson writes: Last week, at this year’s Munich gathering, she laid out a compelling case for holding Putin and his soldiers criminally responsible for “crimes against humanity.” It would be no surprise if Putin reacted to the Biden visit with a deadly barrage of missiles against civilian targets. No one can keep Putin from waging his war. But Biden can — and will — keep him from winning it. – Washington Post

Antony Beevor writes: Only a relatively small advance is needed to bring his bridge over the Kerch Strait to the Crimean peninsula under direct fire, provoking a panic-stricken exit by recent Russian settlers. Whether NATO tanks will arrive in time to accomplish the breakthrough needed to achieve that climax will be one of the key questions in the outcome of the war. – Washington Post

Jason Willick writes: Republican skepticism of the war is likely to persist, and one interpretation is that this will undercut America’s strategic objectives. Another interpretation is that it will help the Biden administration triangulate and make its real objectives — the degradation of Russia’s military, the preservation of Ukraine’s independence and the avoidance of direct war — more likely to be vindicated in the end. – Washington Post

Nicholas Kristof writes: While the risk of escalation can’t be ruled out, it must be balanced against the risks of allowing this conflict to drag on as Ukrainians and Russians are killed daily. Putin will negotiate seriously when he sees no military path forward — and that may happen if his hold on Crimea becomes untenable. – New York Times

David Axe writes: They’re also the clearest sign yet that the weapons Ukraine’s allies are sending to the war zone are more and more meant for attacking rather than defending. And that suggests some important changes on the battlefield. – New York Times

David French writes: At that moment, American troops and American treasure were on the line. Now only American treasure is at stake. But the same words apply — they apply to President Biden, to Congress, and, crucially, to the American people. This is no time to go wobbly. It’s awful to say this about any war, given the horrific loss of life, but this one is winnable. And Russian aggression cannot prevail. – New York Times

Oksana Zabuzhko writes: If there could be any positive result found in the 12 months of this horrific war — in tens of thousands of people murdered, raped and mutilated, in millions of lives ruined, in the best black soil on earth littered with mines, in innumerable treasures of cultural heritage turned to debris — it would be that we Ukrainians have all together, in a united effort of resistance, proved that non-Russian lives matter. – New York Times

Hal Brands writes: So Ukraine will likely remain an economic ward of the West, with Washington and its allies funding the country’s defense for the foreseeable future. Even if Kyiv isn’t headed for NATO, the end of the war may be only the beginning of a long Western commitment to Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Andreas Kluth writes: Putin and Xi remind us that autocracies are at particular risk of intellectual hubris. By definition, these systems are closed mental universes that require conformity and punish free thinking. – Bloomberg

Minxin Pei writes: Withdrawing Chinese support for Putin could also accelerate the latter’s defeat in Ukraine, which would allow the US to concentrate its undivided attention on China sooner. Xi is trapped in a strategic dilemma, at the mercy of events. His erstwhile masterstroke is looking more and more like a losing bet. – Bloomberg

Dean Karayanis writes: The Ukraine War and America’s commitment to it cannot go on forever, and neither can Washington’s habit of plunging into fights without respecting the intent of the Constitution to ensure that there’s an endgame in mind from day one, so we’re not left groping in the dark for an exit we can’t find. – New York Sun

James Kitfield writes: The real lesson of this sorrowful anniversary is that there is no going back to some “golden age” of positive and normal relations between the West and Russia, however much we might desire it because time has revealed that golden hue as a figment of post-Cold War optimism. In the harsh light of Moscow’s continuing atrocities in Ukraine, that interim looks in retrospect like a brief pause in a long twilight struggle. – The Hill

Harlan Ullman writes: The crucial question remains: Who is today’s General Jack Keane? To whom will President Biden listen? There is no Colin Powell. Henry Kissinger may be too old. Perhaps former Presidents Clinton, G.W. Bush or Obama could play that role, however unlikely. But make no mistake: On the current course, the outcome of the war in Ukraine may not be in Kyiv’s favor. We cannot take that risk. Mr. President: Are you listening? – The Hill

Matthew Wallin writes: With limited resources, the United States is spending significantly on transfers of extremely effective weapons and resources to ensure that Ukraine is able to maintain its freedom from Russia. It is also spending money to replenish its own inventory, and to modernize its aging nuclear delivery vehicles. In the event New START fails or sunsets, allowing Russia to goad the U.S. into a level of unnecessary spending on superfluous nuclear weapons that distract from what’s needed would be unwise. – The Hill

Ilan Berman writes: In other words, as has long been the case, nothing succeeds quite like success. And the surest way for the West to bring about the change in Russia that it so desperately desires — in the form of a sustained, powerful internal opposition to Vladimir Putin and his regime — is to ensure that Ukraine keeps winning. – The Hill

Eva Busza and Jerry Hartz write: If Ukraine wins this war, the world’s democracies must unite to win the peace. When the Berlin Wall fell, the West prematurely declared victory and the end of the Cold War. The world cannot make that mistake again. A democratic Ukraine is key to a more democratic, more peaceful and more secure region. As the Ukrainians continually remind us, their fight is our fight. – The Hill

Alex Hinton writes: For these reasons, I am convinced Russia has committed genocide. Regardless of one’s position, we must not lose sight of what is most important: bringing an end to the tremendous loss of life and suffering in Ukraine — and ultimately holding Russia accountable for its brutal war of aggression and crimes of atrocity. – The Hill

Dov S. Zakheim writes: That, however, is the reality which both the Biden administration and Congress must accept, however grudgingly. And in doing so, it is imperative that the White House propose, and the Congress authorize and appropriate, defense budgets that go well beyond mere minimal real growth in military expenditures — that could only whet the insatiable, ongoing territorial appetites of both Moscow and Beijing. – The Hill

Gideon Rachman writes: But just as Moscow is hoping that western resolve will crack, so Ukraine and its allies are watching Russia closely for any signs of second thoughts or threats to Putin. Because both sides have some reason to hope that the other will crack, they both have an incentive to keep fighting. It is right to push for a quick resolution to this war. It may be more realistic to expect a long conflict. – Financial Times

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The era of counter-insurgency and the global war on terror is now over. Biden’s presidency helped end that era by leaving Afghanistan. Now, going to Kyiv, he has shown how the US has pivoted from the small wars that defined the era 1990-2022, to larger conventional conflicts. – Jerusalem Post 

Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Biden’s visit and the timing of his trip to Europe clearly signal continued Western support for Ukraine following concerted Russian efforts to deter Western military aid and political support. […]It has long been clear that Ukraine would not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of seeing large numbers of Ukrainian troops encircled in the city, so Zelensky’s comment is not likely a real change in Kyiv’s strategy. – Institute for the Study of War

Afghanistan

When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the group quickly launched what officials called a “purification” campaign aimed at stripping the country of civil laws and institutions to build an entirely Islamic society. – Washington Post

The Taliban administration will move ahead with plans to turn former foreign military bases into special economic zones for businesses, the acting deputy prime minister for economic affairs said in a statement on Sunday. – Reuters

A key border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan remained closed for a third day, with thousands of goods vehicles stuck and businesses facing losses as officials from both sides try to broker a solution. – Reuters

Afghan police have arrested the former bodyguard of a female member of parliament who was shot to death at her home in Kabul last month, the Taliban administration said on Friday. – Reuters

Bulgarian police have arrested four people after they found the bodies of 18 dead migrants from Afghanistan, including that of a child, in an abandoned truck near the capital Sofia, officials said on Friday. – Reuters

Republicans on the House Oversight Committee are ramping up their investigation into the turbulent withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021, with the panel sending letters to senior administration officials on Friday demanding information pertaining to their decision-making. – Washington Examiner

Pakistani border guards and Afghan Taliban forces traded cross-border fire on Monday morning, officials said, a day after Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers closed the Torkham border crossing amid increasing tensions between the two neighbors. – Associated Press

Editorial: Mr. Haqqani is no moderate. The United States holds him responsible for several bloody terrorist attacks during the Afghan War, including against U.S. personnel. And yet his words are what passes for pragmatism in Kabul these days. If he wants to back them up, he could start by freeing Mr. Mashal, who was arrested by Taliban fighters while continuing his protest on the streets of Kabul on Feb. 2 and has not been heard from since. – Washington Post

Roshni Kapur writes: It is likely that the US will continue to find it challenging to push the Taliban to institute positive change, given Washington’s self-imposed restrictions on engaging the regime, preoccupation with the Ukraine war, and geopolitical limitations. While the US should continue to press the Taliban to honor its commitments, such efforts should be undertaken within a broader strategy, one that acknowledges the importance of, and promotes regional cooperation aimed at contributing to the longer-term stability of Afghanistan and its immediate neighborhood. – Middle East Institute

Turkey

When Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken first planned a trip to Turkey, it promised to be a difficult, even contentious diplomatic visit. Washington and Ankara have been at odds on several important issues, including Turkey’s ties to Russia, its refusal to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and the authoritarian drift of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey has been so exasperating in so many ways in recent years that Mr. Blinken, in his confirmation hearing, referred to Ankara as a “so-called ally,” and in two years had not visited. – New York Times

Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in earthquake-ravaged Turkey on Sunday, announcing $100 million in disaster assistance and offering unreserved solidarity to a NATO ally with an often-strained relationship with Washington. – Washington Post

FIFA has allocated $1 million to its FIFA Foundation to provide humanitarian aid to people affected by the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, soccer’s world governing body said on Friday. – Reuters

Turkey is not exporting products that could be used in Russia’s war effort, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday, after U.S. warnings this month about exports of chemicals, microchips and other items. – Reuters

The fate of Finland’s bid to join NATO is in “Turkey’s hands”, President Sauli Niinisto said on Friday, after the Finnish parliament agreed it would ratify NATO’s founding treaties on Feb. 28. – Reuters

Washington strongly supports Sweden and Finland’s quick NATO accession given steps they have already taken, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, even as his Turkish counterpart stressed the need for more concrete action. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday called for Sweden and Finland to be accepted into NATO “as quickly as possible,” although his Turkish counterpart dismissed the possibility of any link between their accession and Turkey’s request for F-16 fighter jets. – Associated Press

Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces on Monday said a suspect who had been detained by troops after crossing the border from Syria into the Golan Heights last month was involved in efforts by the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group to gather intelligence on Israel for future attacks. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, in which the Hezbollah leader boasted that a civil war between the left and right would soon topple the Israeli regime. – Arutz Sheva

Hanin Ghaddar writes: As Washington continues to support the Lebanese Armed Forces and other security institutions, it should make sure that they are protecting victims and their advocates, not the aggressors. Along with Judge Bitar and the families of the port victims, Lebanon’s political activists will need more protection as state institutions collapse. The military did protect some protesters in 2019—but not within Hezbollah’s closed-off Shia towns. Going forward, security institutions should be helping activists, not summoning and interrogating them. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Decisions by OPEC+ are not politicised and are based on market fundamentals, Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday, adding that the alliance of oil producers is sufficiently flexible to adjust policy as needed. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said consensus was building in the Arab world that isolating Syria was not working and that dialogue with Damascus was needed “at some point” to at least address humanitarian issues, including a return of refugees. – Reuters

Oshkosh Defense is extending its reach in Saudi Arabia’s defense market with the signing of a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) today with the Zahid Tractor and Heavy Machinery Company. – Breaking Defense

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia expelled the head of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) on Saturday after she took part in an anti-government protest organised by the country’s UGTT union, one of Tunisia’s leading political forces. – Reuters

In an historic first, Israel and the United Arab Emirates participated in a joint unmanned maritime demonstration where they performed a range of military and commercial missions. EDGE, ADSB and IAI held the joint demonstration at NAVDEX exhibition in Abu Dhabi. – Arutz Sheva

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday received a phone call from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during which they discussed the upcoming United Nations Security Council session on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian issue. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The question is whether the attempt to secure Jenin and Nablus will be a symbolic gesture, involve backroom deals with the gunmen to be less visible, or whether it will be a real confrontation with the setting of a new course. This would require a crackdown on illegal weapons and gun violence. – Jerusalem Post

Blake Herzinger and Ben Lefkowitz write: Most Middle Eastern states are uninterested in choosing sides in the expanding U.S.-China competition. Arab states in particular can be expected to seek maximal utility from both relationships without incurring the ire of either partner. This hedging will manifest in a number of ways, but ultimately Washington will need to decide when and how to limit engagements with traditional security partners as their exposure to the Chinese military increases. Clear communication will be crucial in setting limits for what defense equipment and support will be available if relationships with the PLAN mature into basing or operational access. – Washington Institute

China

U.S. officials are warning China against supplying Russia with arms and ammunition, as Moscow struggles to gain ground in Ukraine despite deploying almost the entirety of its ground forces in its smaller neighbor. – Wall Street Journal

China’s leadership is growing worried that increased Western military support for Ukraine will severely weaken Russia, a key partner for Beijing in its heightened competition with the U.S. and its allies. – Wall Street Journal

The growing conflict between China and the U.S. extends from computer-chip factories to a suspected spy balloon over American skies. Running through it all is a struggle for technological superiority. – Wall Street Journal

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited Hungary, one of Beijing’s staunchest European partners, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban signaled Budapest’s determination to strengthen ties with Beijing despite U.S. concern over growing Chinese investment in the country. – Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken held what American officials described as a confrontational meeting with his Chinese counterpart on Saturday night in Munich, warning him that the flight of a Chinese surveillance balloon across the United States “must never happen again.” – New York Times

Bristling against U.S. claims that Beijing may be poised to send “lethal support” to help Russia’s war in Ukraine, China accused the Biden administration on Monday of spreading lies and defended its close partnership with Russia. – New York Times

British foreign minister James Cleverly said on Monday he had spoken with Chinese counterpart Qin Gang and raised alleged human rights abuses in China’s western region of Xinjiang. – Reuters

Retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane on Sunday said Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning on Sunday that China could provide lethal aid to Russia could actually cause Beijing to cancel those plans. – The Hill

Graham said that the “most catastrophic thing” that could happen to the United States’s relationship with China is if the country gives lethal weapons to Putin. Graham called for marking Russia a state-sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law to make it more difficult for China to aid the war against Ukraine. – Washington Examiner

Diplomatic but not military channels remain open currently between the United States and China, the White House said. – Washington Examiner

A handful of Trump-era Pentagon officials reportedly tracked a series of mysterious objects now suspected to be Chinese balloons, though it was not reported to the White House at the time. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: But Mr. Xi and his war hawks may be willing to take that risk if they want to prevent a Russian defeat in Ukraine. China may want to bleed the West of its weapons and see if Russia can outlast political support in Washington and European capitals for Ukraine. This would be foolish, and bad for China and the world, but the possibility is one more urgent reason for Members of both parties in Congress to get serious about rebuilding U.S. defenses. – Wall Street Journal

Richard A. Muller writes: Perhaps the Happe program also alerted China to the espionage potential of stratospheric balloons. (In World War II Japan flew lower-altitude balloons carrying incendiary devices timed to fall over the U.S.) Or maybe Happe initially intrigued China with its science potential. By the 1980s, Chinese scientists were launching their own stratospheric balloons over the Pacific. They named their projects HAPI—written in Mandarin, of course, not English. Was it called that for the joy it brought, as some have suggested? I now think it might have been an homage to Happe. – Wall Street Journal

Sheldon H. Jacobson writes: As more information is collected from the first balloon shot down, a clearer picture will come together as to the capabilities of China’s balloon program and whether it poses a threat to the nation and its allies. Until then, we will continue to wait, observe and track balloons hovering over the United States. – The Hill

Donald Kirk writes: While focusing on nukes and missiles, no one imagined such relatively simple devices as balloons could capture the attention of statesmen, national leaders, generals and emissaries. Call them China’s once secret weapon. Balloons are more than merely the stuff of headlines du jour. In a war of wits and nerves as well as strength and power, it’s wise to expect the unexpected, including hot air blowing in from China. – The Hill

John Bolton writes: Both the House and Senate have passed unanimous resolutions condemning the Chinese overflights, a rare display of bipartisanship in today’s Washington. Let’s get on with enhancing our national security against Beijing’s menace, not only from balloon flights but across the board. – The Hill

Stanley Chao writes: Whether it’s throwing punches or doling out flowers, China is not really interested in ideological alliances or an international rules-based order. Whether you call it socialist market capitalism or pseudo-communism, China’s approach is one of a kind. Going it alone often begets chaos. It’s simply hard to predict China’s mood at any given time. Ultimately, however, Beijing does want to be a global citizen, just on its own terms. Expect surprises, good or bad, and then roll with the punches when they inevitably come. – The Hill

Asia

For years, the Philippines largely stood by as Chinese forces rammed its fishing vessels and occupied the reefs and shoals that once belonged to the Southeast Asian nation. Those days may soon be over. – New York Times

Exposing China’s activities was the “key purpose” of Australia’s foreign interference laws, but the scheme has failed to do this, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who introduced the laws, said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday announced a new $5.5 billion financial aid for Ukraine and will mark the first anniversary of the war by hosting an online Group of Seven summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. – Associated Press

Defence cooperation between South Korea and Indonesia will expand, diplomats from the two countries said on Friday, after a dispute over funding for a joint fighter jet project was resolved last year. – Reuters

The United Nations plans to slash food aid to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, blaming a funding shortfall for cuts that agencies warned on Friday would deepen food insecurity and malnutrition in the world’s largest refugee settlement. – Reuters

Japan’s foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi met his South Korean counterpart Park Jin on Saturday and reiterated the need for continued communications between the two countries to return to a “healthy relationship”. – Reuters

Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces want the United States to issue stronger sanctions against the junta that seized power in the country two years ago and increase funding for pro-democratic forces, the parallel civilian government’s foreign minister told Reuters on Friday – Reuters

Japan and China will hold security talks next week, Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said after meeting his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. – Reuters

A balloon that came down on a remote Taiwanese-held islet close to China’s coast was used for weather monitoring and had no audio-visual recording equipment on board, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Saturday after analysing the remains. – Reuters

The European Union on Monday imposed a sixth round of sanctions on Myanmar over the 2021 military coup that overthrew elected leader Aung Suu Kyi and sparked global outrage. – Reuters

Taiwan is bolstering its military ties with the United States and will cooperate even more closely with it and other friendly nations to deal with “authoritarian expansionism”, President Tsai Ing-wen told visiting U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Philippines and the United States are discussing conducting joint coast guard patrols, including in the South China Sea, a Manila official said on Monday. – Reuters

A U.N. torture prevention panel terminated its suspended visit to Australia, saying it continued to face obstacles in getting access to some detention centres in the country. – Reuters

Former leaders from Australia, Britain and Belgium called Friday for a tougher international approach to China to reduce the possibility of war over Taiwan and respond to human rights violations. – Associated Press

Africa

But the governments of Uganda and Tanzania are arguing that they can’t afford not to exploit their natural resources while the world still runs on fossil fuels. It is unfair, they say, to ask poor countries to safeguard global carbon sinks and nature reserves that rich Western countries, which are responsible for most historic emissions, destroyed long ago in pursuit of their own economic development. – Wall Street Journal

A senior Israeli diplomat on Saturday was removed from the African Union’s annual summit in Ethiopia, as a dispute over Israel’s accreditation to the bloc escalated. – Reuters

France’s defence minister pledged on Monday to boost military support to Ivory Coast, as Paris adjusts its strategy in West Africa after neighbouring Burkina Faso ordered French troops to leave and vowed to curb a worsening Islamist insurgency solo. – Reuters

The United Nations will spend $250 million from its emergency fund to tackle “forgotten crises’ around the world, including helping communities that are facing the risk of famine in Africa, its secretary general said on Saturday. – Reuters

Failure to renew a U.N.-backed initiative that has enabled Ukraine to export grain from ports blockaded by Russia would be catastrophic as millions in Africa are on the cusp of famine, the head of the U.N. food agency warned on Saturday. – Reuters

African countries are getting a raw deal from the international financial system which charges them “extortionate” interest rates, the U.N. chief said on Saturday, as he announced $250 million in crisis funding, including for famine risk on the continent. – Reuters

Fighters from Democratic Republic of Congo’s M23 rebel group killed at least 20 men and raped scores of women and girls in the east in November, Amnesty International said in a report on Friday. – Reuters

At least 51 soldiers were killed when their unit was ambushed in northern Burkina Faso on Friday, the army said on Monday, one of the highest reported death tolls from a single attack since the area became a hotbed of jihadist activity. – Reuters

The head of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group accused of widespread human rights abuses, said on Sunday he was committed to intergrating the force into a reformed national armed forces. – Reuters

Burkina Faso announced on Sunday that operations by the French army in the jihadist-hit West African state were officially over, after bilateral relations soured in recent months. – Agence France-Presse

United States

House Homeland Security Committee ranking Democrat Bennie Thompson (Miss.) on Monday blasted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for handing over tens of thousands of hours of riot footage from Jan. 6, 2021, to Fox News host Tucker Carlson. – The Hill

The Justice Department probes into Donald Trump’s conduct appear to be ramping up, as special counsel Jack Smith approaches key allies of the former president with knowledge of his activities surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and classified documents discovered at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. – The Hill

Justice Department investigators on Friday searched the offices of former Vice President Mike Pence’s political advocacy group as part of a review of his handling of classified documents, a spokesperson said. – The Hill

Defense

Lockheed Martin will deliver hypersonic missiles to the Navy and Army that can be integrated with the Navy’s Zumwalt-class destroyers under a $1.2 billion deal awarded Friday. – Defense News

Manufacturers of counter-drone weaponry say they are increasingly miniaturizing and simplifying their solutions to meet rising demand for man-portable weapons, as recent conflicts have accentuated the importance of mobile capabilities. – Defense News

The Space Force expects the scope of its next phase of major National Security Space Launch contracts to increase by about 50% due to surge demand for military lift services, according to the general who oversees the launch enterprise. – Defense News

The Marine Corps has kicked off its evaluations of the advanced reconnaissance vehicle prototypes that are competing to replace the aging light armored vehicle. – Military Times