Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran said the black box of a Ukrainian airliner it mistakenly shot down is significantly damaged, complicating an already protracted investigation of an incident that sparked domestic protests and angry calls for greater government accountability. – Wall Street Journal

The so-called “principlists” wedded to the theocratic ideals of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution look set to win parliamentary elections on Friday.  […]At a time when the Iranian electorate is showing little enthusiasm for the vote, Trump’s actions have largely empowered the conservatives. They never supported the nuclear deal in the first place. – Bloomberg

Amiri spoke with the Washington Examiner over the phone, recounting how he ended up in prison, and spoke about his hopes for an Iran free of dynastic or theocratic rule. Once kept in solitary confinement where he said his captors withheld food and sleep, he now is free and living in an undisclosed location. – Washington Examiner

Iran’s foreign minister said his meeting with a Democratic senator alarmed the Trump administration because it allowed him to talk directly to “the American nation.” – Washington Examiner

Campaigning officially ended on Thursday for Iran’s parliamentary election, state media said, a day before a vote seen as a litmus test of the popularity of the Islamic republic. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday said authorities in Washington were prepared to talk to Iran “anytime”, but that it needed to “fundamentally” change its behavior and that a campaign of maximum pressure against it would continue. – Reuters

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf’s record as a Revolutionary Guards air force commander, a war veteran and a national police chief has endeared him to Iran’s supreme leader and boosted his chances of becoming the next speaker of parliament after Friday’s election. – Reuters

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday said the United States will sink like the “Titanic,” blaming it on “wealthy Zionist individuals and corporate owners” who he said controlled the US economy. – Agence France-Presse

Austria’s foreign minister said Wednesday that he will travel to Tehran this weekend amid efforts by European countries to keep alive Iran’s nuclear agreement with world powers. – Associated Press

Bobby Ghosh writes: The bottom line is this: No matter the external conditions, the hard-liners were due a “comeback” in parliament, and Khamenei was going to ensure this outcome. Yes, Trump and the U.S. sanctions have been talking points in the election campaign, but they have been used by all factions, and their impact on the results will be moot. – Bloomberg

Mehdi Khalaji writes: The election gives the U.S. government an opportunity to amplify the voices of Iranians who have been calling out the regime’s increasingly anti-democratic nature. When remarking on the vote and its aftermath, U.S. officials should put the words of these Iranians front and center, since they are much more credible than foreign criticisms from the Trump administration. – Washington Institute

Turkey

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday there was some rapprochement with Russia in talks about Syria’s Idlib region, where Ankara has threatened to mount an offensive, but added that discussions were not at a desired level yet. – Reuters

Turkey and Russia are discussing possible joint patrols around Syria’s northwestern Idlib region as one option to ensure security there, a Turkish official said on Thursday, as Ankara ramped up threats of a military offensive in the region. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that the main opposition party should be investigated for possible links to the U.S.-based cleric accused of orchestrating a 2016 coup attempt, amid a bout of finger-pointing between the two sides. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: The diplomatic price should also be high. American diplomats such as former U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jim Jeffrey say America needs Turkey. Actually, they have got it reversed: Turkey needs America. The price of any diplomatic support should, however, be high: Nothing less than a full withdrawal of all Turkish forces and settlers from Cyprus, Iraq, and Syria. – Washington Examiner

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing his third election in less than a year on March 2, has vowed to annex the Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements. That campaign pledge was largely endorsed by the Trump administration last month when it released its long-awaited peace plan calling for extending Israeli sovereignty over the fertile valley. – Wall Street Journal

A group of House Democrats is calling on the Trump administration to restore U.S. assistance to Gaza, arguing Palestinians are facing a humanitarian crisis. – The Hill

The High Court of Justice on Thursday approved the IDF’s demolition orders of the houses of the killers of Rina Shnerb despite the impact on non-involved family members and their neighbors. – Jerusalem Post

Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and the Coordinator of Government Affairs in the Territories (COGAT) have notified the Palestinian Authority of the resumption of agricultural imports from the West Bank to Israel, after the PA ban on calf imports from Israel was removed on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has disavowed a suggestion in US President Donald Trump’s peace proposal to redraw Israel’s border to include numerous Arab Israeli towns in a future Palestinian state. – Times of Israel

Khalil al-Hayya, a member of the Hamas political bureau and one of the organization’s senior leaders in the Gaza Strip, is calling for a national action plan to combat the so-called “Deal of the Century”. – Arutz Sheva

Israeli security forces arrested Rafat Nasif, a top Hamas official, at his Tulkarm home in the West Bank late on Wednesday night. – Jerusalem Post

Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki declined to answer what the PA is doing to bring about the release of the four Israeli captives in Gaza, during remarks to the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Palestinians must show they are serious about peace by seizing the “Deal of the Century” as a vehicle for progress rather than rejecting it on the presumption that the international community has endless patience for their plight, visiting British Member of Parliament Stephen Crabb told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Libya

The United Nations urged Libya’s warring sides on Wednesday to return to the negotiating table, hours after the U.N.-installed government suspended cease-fire talks in the wake of an attack on Tripoli’s port, illuminating the festering obstacles to ending the war. – Washington Post

Mr. Hifter has cut off Libya’s oil production for the past month to try to deprive the Tripoli government of revenue. This week he began shelling its civilian port, killing three people, narrowly missing a ship loaded with liquefied natural gas and derailing United Nations-sponsored cease-fire talks. – New York Times

Turkey’s president criticized on Wednesday the European Union’s decision to launch a maritime effort focused on enforcing the U.N. arms embargo around Libya, accusing European nations that agreed to the operation of “interfering in the region.” – Associated Press

Turkey’s guarantees in Libya are dependent on a truce between warring sides being upheld, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday, adding that Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar was violating the ceasefire. – Reuters

Algeria is ready to act as a mediator in any Libya ceasefire talks, its president Abdelmadjid Tebboune told French newspaper Le Figaro in an interview published on Thursday. – Reuters

Authorities in northern Italy arrested the captain of a Lebanese-flagged cargo ship on suspicion of international arms trafficking Wednesday while they investigate if the vessel transported tanks, rockets and other weapons from Turkey to Libya. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

Iran does not want to purchase nuclear weapons from North Korea because it wants its own nuclear arsenal, top Blue and White MK and former defense minister Moshe Ya’alon recently told the Magazine in an extensive interview. – Jerusalem Post

Biting disagreement over the Trump administration’s demand that Seoul pay more for the upkeep of nearly 30,000 U.S. troops in South Korea will hang over the agenda next week when Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper hosts his South Korean counterpart at the Pentagon. – Washington Times

North Korea indicated Wednesday that it is shifting its strategy to focus on its own independent economic development, with a key state propaganda newspaper in Pyongyang calling the pursuit of support from outside nations a “stupid idea.” – Washington Times

South Asia

U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Wednesday discussed a U.S. deal with Taliban militants on a weeklong reduction in violence, meeting the day after Ghani was declared a winner of a disputed presidential poll. – Reuters

The long-awaited result of Afghanistan’s bitterly disputed presidential election was expected to end months of uncertainty. Instead, President Ashraf Ghani’s reelection has triggered a political crisis that has threatened to spill over into violence and derail a historic peace deal between the United States and the Taliban. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Sri Lanka’s prime minister said Wednesday that the government has decided to withdraw from co-sponsorship of a 2015 U.N. Human Rights Council resolution calling for the investigation of allegations of war crimes committed during the island nation’s long civil war. – Associated Press

Jeff M. Smith writes: While the relationship isn’t without its warts, Delhi and Washington are more aligned now than ever before. The Trump administration has already left its own lasting imprint on the partnership and will add a new chapter to the saga when the president arrives in Delhi next week. – Heritage Foundation

Europe

The suspect in several shootings that killed nine people Wednesday night in central Germany was found dead at his house, police said early on Thursday without adding any information on possible motives. […]While violent crime is relatively rare in Germany, the country has experienced a rise in far-right and Islamist terrorism as well as an organized-crime wave. – Wall Street Journal

European Union leaders are set to clash Thursday over the bloc’s next seven-year budget as they seek to fill the cash gap left by Britain’s departure. – Wall Street Journal

A lawyer for Julian Assange said in a British court Wednesday that former Republican congressman Dana Rohrabacher, an ally of President Trump, made an offer to the WikiLeaks founder on behalf of Trump to pardon Assange in exchange for saying that Russia had nothing to do with the 2016 hack and leak of emails from the Democratic National Committee. – Washington Post

Ukraine wants to move on in its relationship with the U.S. after the country was pulled into domestic politics during the impeachment process of President Donald Trump, the country’s foreign minister said. – Bloomberg

European Union member states are at loggerheads over their negotiating position in post-Brexit trade talks as French President Emmanuel Macron pushes for more demanding conditions to be imposed on Britain. – Bloomberg

The reluctance of Jews in the Netherlands to report antisemitic attacks to the authorities out of skepticism that they will not be taken seriously is as much of a problem as the rise in antisemitism itself, a Dutch MP told his colleagues during a parliamentary debate on the subject this week. – Algemeiner

“Antisemitism and hatred of Jews is growing” in Germany, the mayor of Frankfurt warned on Wednesday. – Algemeiner

LGBTQ activists in Iceland are protesting the planned deportation of a transgender teen and his family who fled Iran last February, warning he could face imminent harm if he is forced to leave his new home in the progressive Nordic nation. – NBC

Switzerland’s financial market authority has penalized Julius Baer bank for violating its obligations to fight money laundering over a nearly nine-year span. The sanctions are related to alleged corruption linked to Venezuela’s state-owned oil company and global soccer body FIFA. – Associated Press

German officials confirmed Wednesday that a court has ordered the release of an Iranian man wanted by the United States, but declined to comment on reports that the move was part of a prisoner swap with Iran. – Associated Press

Army aviation forces from Greece and the United States took part in a live-fire training exercise Wednesday at the foot of Mount Olympus, marking deepening defense ties between the two countries. – Associated Press

Margarita Assenova writes: The struggle to stop Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline did not end in December 2019, when the Switzerland-based Allseas Group S.A. suspended pipe-laying work in the Baltic Sea and recalled its ships under the threat of U.S. sanctions. […]Copenhagen is currently under significant pressure from Moscow and Berlin to allow for the completion of the pipeline. U.S. policymakers should support and encourage Denmark in resisting such pressure so that efforts to stop Nord Stream 2 are not in vain. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Bennett Feinsilber writes: While Americans blithely believe we are protecting Europe from Russia, Europeans are more and more entangled in many other military and trade deals with Russia. Germany is financing a gas pipeline from Russia, France is providing technical know-how, etc. Europe and Russia have very profitable relationships, and it is not to the benefit of either to engage in mutual conflicts. – Wall Street Journal

The Americas

The long-awaited trial of the Citgo Six — oil executives, including five U.S. citizens, detained in Venezuela on corruption charges for more than two years — failed to open as scheduled on Wednesday, leaving fearful family members calling on the U.S. government to do more to protect their imprisoned fathers and husbands. – Washington Post

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that Argentina’s debt was unsustainable and private creditors would need to make a “meaningful contribution” to help end a financial crisis in the South American country. – Wall Street Journal

The New York City Commission on Human Rights is launching a campaign to combat antisemitism. – Algemeiner

Trump administration officials are discussing whether to renew their unsuccessful campaign to oust Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro by persuading some ruling party members to temporarily share power with opposition leaders, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro declared an “energy emergency” as he announced a commission to revamp state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, redoubling efforts to shore up the nation’s crumbling oil industry. – Bloomberg

White House senior adviser Jared Kushner is organizing an investment conference in Mexico City, aiming to pair private money with foreign aid for Central America that his father-in-law President Donald Trump froze as punishment for the region’s high level of migration to the U.S. – Bloomberg

Eli Lake writes: Any hopes that Trump is interested in cutting a deal or softening U.S. strategy are misplaced. Rosneft may still attempt to defy the new U.S. sanctions. But the company’s aid to Maduro is not merely political or altruistic. The price for selling Venezuela’s toxic oil just went up. – Bloomberg

Liam Denning writes: In that sense, when it comes to sanctions pertaining to Venezuela, Trump may be more focused for now on the racing rather than winning the race. Oil traders may take that as a signal to relax somewhat about the prospects for sudden, Venezuela-inspired disruption between now and November. The question they should be asking themselves is what happens after that. – Bloomberg

Defense

Alarmed by the technological shortcomings, the Navy’s acting secretary circulated an internal strategy memo last week outlining goals to quickly modernize computer infrastructure. – Wall Street Journal

Nuclear weapons modernization is a top priority of the Pentagon’s FY 2021 budget request, and at Minot Esper will be able to see both B-52 strategic bombers assigned to the 5th Bomb Wing, as well as visiting the missileers of the 91st Missile Wing deep underground in their control rooms, where they stand ready to launch Minuteman III missiles in the event of nuclear war. – Washington Examiner

The new U.S. Space Force could see procurement reach $4.7 billion in fiscal 2025 as it expands steadily from the $2.4 billion requested for acquisitions in the coming year, according to projections by the White House budget office. – Bloomberg

The Defense Department justified redirecting shipbuilding funds to pay for border barrier construction by saying the yards don’t currently have the capacity to spend the money, a Pentagon spokesman told reporters. At least one shipbuilder disagrees. – USNI News

The Navy’s information technology is antiquated and unable to provide sailors, Marines and civilians with basic resources that any private sector employee with a computer can access, according to a report issued Wednesday by the sea service. – Navy Times

This is just a piece of a larger demonstration that the lead shooter, and top Army enlisted soldier, Sergeant Major of the Army Michael Grinston, tested this week on his visit to explore the Integrated Visual Augmentation System, or IVAS. – Marine Corps Times

Hal Brands writes: U.S. bases boost area economies by employing local residents and infusing cash into local businesses. The result is that contact with U.S. personnel tends to foster not just more positive attitudes toward the American military, but toward the American people as a whole. – Bloomberg

Trump Administration

President Trump said Wednesday that John Rood, who as the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy was one of the top officials in the department, is leaving his post. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump on Wednesday named Richard Grenell, the ambassador to Germany who quickly antagonized the establishment after arriving in Berlin in 2018, to be the acting director of national intelligence overseeing the nation’s 17 spy agencies. – New York Times

President Trump on Wednesday thanked a top Pentagon official for his service, confirming that the undersecretary of Defense for policy was on his way out of the administration. – The Hill

Josh Rogin writes: Congressional frustration with the perceived failure by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to defend State Department personnel from political attacks spilled over during a “heated” private meeting last weekend in Munich. […]Pompeo, like most Trump officials, is caught between doing the right thing and remaining loyal to the president. That’s understandable. But lawmakers, journalists and others will continue to point out the State Department he’s running has real personnel and morale problems — even if he doesn’t want to hear it. – Washington Post

Adam Taylor writes: At the Munich Security Conference, Pompeo’s speech about how the West was “winning” highlighted the stark difference between the braggadocio of the United States and the unease of Europe. A subsequent three-stop visit to Africa, which ended on Wednesday, brought no solace to those who argue that the Trump administration’s Africa policy is an afterthought. – Washington Post