Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Two tiny captives, symbols of hostage crisis, to go home dead, Hamas says Israel will begin negotiations on next phase of Gaza ceasefire this week, minister says Two Britons detained in Iran charged with spying, Iranian judiciary says U.S., Russia forge new path on Ukraine after first high-level talks WINEP’s Anna Borshchevskaya: A Russian win in Ukraine would be a U.S. loss in the Middle East Turkey detains nearly 300 people in raids on PKK suspects, including opposition figures FDDA’s Toby Dershowitz and Independent Researcher Eitan Fischberger: Is Al Jazeera providing material support to Hamas? South Korea is willing to take North Korean POWs from Ukraine How dirty money from Fentanyl sales Is flowing through China Foreign spies seeking AUKUS secrets, Australia intelligence chief says Brazil charges former President Bolsonaro in alleged coup plot NYT’s Denis Mukwege: Congo is bleeding. Where is the outrage?In The News
Israel
For more than a year, many Israelis and others around the world have anguished over the fates of a mother and her two young sons who were captured by gunmen and taken to Gaza during the Hamas-led assault of Oct. 7, 2023. – New York Times
Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations on a second stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal, officials said on Tuesday, as the Palestinian militant group said it would hand over more hostages, including the bodies of two children, this week. – Reuters
More than $50 billion will be required to rebuild Gaza after the 15-month Israel-Hamas conflict in the Palestinian enclave, according to an assessment released by the United Nations, the European Union and the World Bank on Tuesday. – Reuters
An agreement has been reached with Hamas to release on Saturday the six remaining hostages who are alive, Axios reported on Tuesday, citing an unnamed senior Israeli official. – Reuters
Hamas said it’s ready to exchange its remaining Israeli hostages all at once with Palestinian prisoners during the Gaza truce’s second phase as a step leading to a “permanent ceasefire” and the full withdrawal of Israel’s forces from the enclave. – Bloomberg
Dozens of Israelis attempted to cross into Lebanon to visit the gravesite of a Rabbi overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, Israeli media reported. – Jerusalem Post
Israel’s Defense Ministry and Israel Shipyards have begun production of new warships for the Israeli Navy, the three announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, following a ceremonial event. – Jerusalem Post
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer will lead the Israeli delegation’s negotiations over the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, The Jerusalem Post independently verified on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post
Jerusalem Municipality officials shut down on Tuesday a vocational center in Kalandiya Refugee Camp on the border between east Jerusalem and the West Bank on Tuesday, following a directive by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday night to enforce a law intended to ban UNRWA’s operations in east Jerusalem, the Jerusalem Ministry confirmed in a statement. – Jerusalem Post
The Hamas Nukhba terrorists who raided the Nova Music Festival near Re’im on the morning of the October 7 massacre intended to reach Netivot but made a mistake in their navigation, according to Israel’s public broadcaster KAN on Monday, releasing details of the IDF probe into the October 7 events. – Jerusalem Post
Two IDF conscripts vacationing in Amsterdam were rushed back to Israel after pro-Palestinian groups got wind of their trip and were mobilizing to have arrest warrants issued for the pair. – Times of Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told cabinet ministers during a recent meeting that Israel’s conditions in upcoming negotiations on the terms of the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage release deal are for the Hamas terror group to disarm and have no presence in Gaza, and for the Palestinian Authority to be barred from the post-war management of the enclave, Israeli television reported Tuesday. – Times of Israel
As part of the ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, Israel is expected to release about 1,000 residents of the Gaza Strip who were arrested following the events of October 7, 2023. – Arutz Sheva
Hamas said that it does not see a necessity to govern the Gaza Strip in the future, but the group made it clear that withdrawing from Gaza or disarming was not an option. – Ynet
Two Israelis who have been held captive in Gaza for nearly a decade are set to return home as part of the latest hostage deal — Avera Mengistu, who will be released after 3,821 days in captivity, and Hisham al-Sayed, who has been held for 3,595 days. – Ynet
Editorial: Israel has had unfortunate experience with troop withdrawals from Lebanon, having done so already on two separate occasions […]If this pattern of failed withdrawals is to change, then things must be fundamentally different this time. The decision to keep the five IDF outposts inside Lebanon until the Lebanese live up to their part of the agreement indicates Israel has internalized that lesson […]So far, the signs are encouraging. According to an Army Radio report Tuesday, Israel identified some 230 violations since the ceasefire went into effect. “The vast majority” of these infringements were dealt with by the Lebanese Army after Israel complained to the US-chaired enforcement mechanism established under the ceasefire agreement. Those not dealt with by the Lebanese army? Israel took care of them itself. – Jerusalem Post
Amos Harel writes: The IDF’s successes in the war, the relative quiet along the northern border since the cease-fire began and the hardline enforcement policy Israel has adopted since then should all help convince residents of communities near the border that they can safely return home. But residents of the Upper Galilee and Western Galilee are still skeptical about the agreement, after more than 60,000 of them were evacuated from their homes for more than a year. – Haaretz
Neomi Neumann writes: Trump’s vision of Palestinian emigration from Gaza and the area’s transformation into a “Riviera” is based on economic-utilitarian logic. Some Palestinians may emigrate if conditions are favorable—for example, if they have the means to leave, and if welcoming and developed destinations are available. However, mass emigration as part of an official political plan—especially one that precludes their return—remains unlikely. Ultimately, the ethos of sumud remains a central component of Palestinian national identity. – Washington Institute
Iran
Two British nationals detained in Iran have been charged with espionage after they allegedly gathered information in different parts of the country, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Tuesday. – Reuters
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the US government’s plan to remove the existing Palestinian population from Gaza and rebuild the devastated enclave into a “Riviera” is “stupid” and “will lead to nowhere.” – Bloomberg
The Islamic Republic’s Aerospace Force is ready for any conflict that could occur, IRGC Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said on Tuesday, according to Iranian state media Mehr News. – Jerusalem Post
Russia & Ukraine
The U.S. and Russia agreed to appoint teams to negotiate a settlement to the war in Ukraine, marking an end to three years of U.S. policy that focused on isolating Moscow and supporting Kyiv for as long as it was willing to keep fighting. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Kyiv for starting the war between Russia and Ukraine as his top aides concluded initial talks in Saudi Arabia on ending the conflict that included Russia but excluded Ukrainian and European officials. – Washington Post
Shortly after the United States’ opening meeting with Russian officials on Tuesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine lashed out at the Trump administration’s negotiating tactics in his harshest terms yet for excluding Ukrainians from talks on their own country’s fate. – New York Times
The United States and Russia moved toward a head-spinning reset of their relationship on Tuesday, agreeing to work together on ending the Ukraine war, financial investment and re-establishing normal relations. – New York Times
Ukrainian forces have struck and knocked out a North Korean self-propelled howitzer on the eastern front of the nearly three-year-old war with Russia, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday. – Reuters
A Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s southern region of Odesa injured four people, including a child, and caused widespread power cuts, local officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy, arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and “listen,” as the war against Russia approaches its three-year mark. – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump could meet this month, although the first face-to-face encounter between a Russian and a U.S. leader since 2021 could take longer to prepare, the Kremlin said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia in order to not give “legitimacy” to Tuesday’s meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
The U.S. and Russia agreed on Tuesday to restore the normal functioning of each other’s diplomatic missions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia. – Reuters
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quoted on Wednesday as saying a U.S. proposal for a critical minerals deal was unfair as it did not include security guarantees, and he did not want Ukraine to become a hub for raw materials. – Reuters
Ukraine attacked an oil refinery in the city of Syzran in Russia’s Samara region overnight, the regional governor said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Russia said oil flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major route for supplying Kazakhstan and exporting to the global market, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. – Reuters
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies that the US will keep sanctions on Russia in place at least until a deal to end the Ukraine conflict is reached, even as his boss, President Donald Trump, said he’ll probably meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a settlement before the end of February. – Bloomberg
UK Defence Secretary John Healey has called on the Trump administration to commit to a security “backstop” for Ukraine, warning that “only the US” is capable enough of stopping Russia from launching another attack on Europe. – Breaking Defense
Editorial: We realize that the ruthless men who rule much of the world can’t be ignored. But usually those men aren’t rewarded with a visit to the U.S., as Mr. Trump hinted last week, before they’ve made any compromises. Visits with Soviet leaders during the Cold War at least had some preparation to assume the U.S. would get something from the diplomacy. Any peace Mr. Putin strikes has to be made with all of his legacy of destruction in mind. – Wall Street Journal
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Crucially, U.S. officials must acknowledge that no such victory can be declared—let alone achieved—without safeguarding the security of Ukraine and Europe. This means demonstrating that Russia has failed to subjugate Ukraine, and that it has paid a heavy price for its invasion.The former goal requires establishing security conditions under which (1) Russia can never attack Ukraine again, and (2) Ukraine can remain a strong, independent, democratic nation. Even more than seizing territory, Moscow aims to keep Ukraine destabilized and vulnerable to its influence. With peace talks imminent, the regional and global order is at a critical inflection point, and U.S. officials should structure their negotiating points accordingly. – Washington Institute
Sam Greene writes: The creation of a European contingent in Ukraine, however, should be pursued not merely as a means to outflank the unfortunate confluence of Russian and American interests, but as a down payment on a more secure European future. European forces stationed in Ukraine would be critical to creating lasting Ukrainian security and facilitating the country’s accession to the EU and, eventually, NATO. The desire eventually to bring those troops home will similarly incentivize European governments to invest directly and heavily in Ukraine’s own defensive capacity. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Leon Aron writes: Of course, the Kremlin will always find the money to finance the war. But barring a price spike in its principle export commodities, especially oil, burning through the national treasury while maintaining social peace and keeping up militarized patriotism at home is bound to be increasingly difficult. Although vehemently denied by officials, the freezing of bank savings is suddenly bruited about. And, of course, there is always the temptation of printing money. – American Enterprise Institute
Syria
Russia is planning to hold high-level contacts with Syria in the near future, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The IDF says it carried out airstrikes against several weapon sites belonging to the former Syrian regime in southern Syria a short while ago. – Times of Israel
Mieczyslaw Boduszynski and Sabina Henneberg write: The international community can help Syria’s transitional authorities mitigate these challenges through independent fact-finding mechanisms, and by facilitating dialogues with actors who have been involved in other successful reconciliation processes, such as those in post-apartheid South Africa. Similarly, independent international commissions for documenting past abuses—already underway within the United Nations—can help avoid situations like Tunisia’s, where fact-finding became politicized. – Washington Institute
Turkey
Turkish police have detained 282 suspects accused of ties to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, militant group, the government said on Tuesday, among them journalists, politicians, and academics. – Reuters
Turkey’s main business group TUSIAD defended itself on Tuesday as working for the national interest after an investigation was launched into one of its executive’s criticism of a crackdown on dissenting figures. – Reuters
Turkey’s largest oil refiner Tupras (TUPRS.IS), opens new tab has stopped buying Russian crude because of U.S. sanctions announced on January 10 against Russian energy companies and tankers carrying Russian oil, the company said on a call following an earnings report. – Reuters
Lebanon
Lebanon’s new government will negotiate with the International Monetary Fund for a new programme and will work to deal with the country’s financial default and public debt, according to a policy statement approved by the cabinet late on Monday. – Reuters
The Israeli military retained five outposts just over its northern border but has otherwise withdrawn from Lebanon in keeping with Tuesday’s deadline, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported. – Bloomberg
An interceptor was launched Tuesday afternoon from the Mount Hermon area, apparently targeting an Israeli Air Force drone that experienced a malfunction and was at risk of crashing in Lebanese territory. – Ynet
Yossi Yehoshua writes: Over the weekend, an airstrike eliminated a senior commander from Hezbollah’s UAV unit after the group launched several reconnaissance drones into Israeli airspace. And just yesterday, a strike in Lebanon killed senior Hamas operative Muhammad Shahin, who, according to Israeli intelligence, served as the group’s “head of operations” in Lebanon and a key liaison to Iran. For residents of the north, these actions offer some reassurance but fall short of shifting their reality. – Ynet
Middle East & North Africa
Qatar has committed to investing $10 billion in India across various sectors, the two nations said in a joint statement on Tuesday, after Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani visited New Delhi. – Reuters
The UAE Tawazun Council, the defense and security acquisitions authority for the UAE armed forces and Abu Dhabi police, has signed five deals worth 5.8 billion dirhams ($1.58 billion) at exhibitions in Abu Dhabi, the defense ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to travel to Riyadh on Thursday, two Egyptian security sources said, where he is due to discuss an Arab plan for Gaza that may include up to $20 billion from the region for reconstruction. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince wasn’t in the room for the first high-level talks between Russia and the United States over Moscow’s war on Ukraine on Tuesday, but Mohammed bin Salman still won the day for hosting the gathering that could be a game-changer in the bloody conflict. – Associated Press
Adam Boehler, the United States Envoy for Hostages, on Tuesday called on Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, to release Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was kidnapped in Iraq nearly two years ago. – Arutz Sheva
Ruth Wasserman Lande writes: Qatar comprises approximately 11,000 sq.km. – about half of the State of Israel. Only 300,000 Qataris live in that geography, alongside the upper echelon of Hamas, which has been lavishly living there for years, in tremendous prosperity. Why would this country, which is practically the self-declared sponsor of Hamas, not take in the two million Gazan civilians who currently make do with merely 365 sq.km. in Gaza, a territory 30 times smaller in size than Qatar? The distance from Israel is also significant enough to nullify border skirmishes, and the Egyptians and Jordanians could certainly breathe more easily with that solution. – Jerusalem Post
Toby Dershowitz and Eitan Fischberger write: Members of Congress across the political aisle have repeatedly expressed concern about Al Jazeera and have asked successive administrations to investigate its activities. The Trump Administration should firmly and unequivocally convey to its Qatari interlocutors that to the extent the network may be playing a duplicitous role—acting as both arsonist and firefighter by empowering terror groups while posing as peacemakers—that cannot be without consequences. It should begin by holding both the Qatari government and its media property Al Jazeera accountable for any material support of a terrorist entity. – RealClearWorld
Korean Peninsula
A South Korean court found four former government officials guilty on Wednesday of forcibly repatriating two North Korean fishermen in 2019, despite their intention to defect, in a case that provoked criticism from global human rights activists. – Reuters
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol could try to impose martial law again or undermine constitutional institutions should he be reinstated, lawyers for parliament argued on Tuesday as his impeachment trial entered its final phase. – Reuters
South Korea said it’s willing to accept any North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine who express a desire to defect to the South, an idea that emerges amid reports of thousands of North Korean soldiers sustaining casualties in support of Russian troops. – Bloomberg
China
Chinese money brokers, part of an underground banking system that has long served the country’s immigrant diaspora, have become go-to partners for fentanyl traffickers and other criminal groups needing to launder illicit drug profits, officials say. – Wall Street Journal
China supports all efforts conducive to peace talks in Ukraine, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, and stressed that Gaza and the West Bank are “not a bargaining chip in political trade-offs.” – Reuters
China has sentenced Zhang Hongli, a former vice president of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to death with a two-year reprieve for taking bribes, the state broadcaster reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
Chinese refiners have stepped up purchases of Brazilian and West African crude as they reorganise sourcing around sanctions and tariff disruptions, and after prices of Middle Eastern grades surged. – Reuters
China will always be Latin America’s “trustworthy” friend and partner, its foreign minister told his Bolivian counterpart, as Beijing looks to improve its foothold in a region historically under the U.S. sphere of influence. – Reuters
China’s top diplomat said no country can “go it alone” and called for a stronger UN, as Beijing seeks to exert more global influence in the face of President Donald Trump’s move to roll out broad-based tariffs and sever some US ties to the world body. – Bloomberg
The Trump administration’s pause of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funding may leave the door open for China to spread its influence, and Beijing is not wasting time trying to fill in the gaps. – Fox News
Beijing has issued a lukewarm response to the U.S. proposal for Chinese and Brazilian peacekeepers to be deployed to Ukraine once a ceasefire is achieved, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. – Newsweek
South Asia
Nepal, the small Himalayan nation bordering China, was negotiating with Beijing over a major injection of infrastructure financing when the United States stepped in with a lucrative offer. – New York Times
Unknown armed men killed seven passengers on a Lahore-bound bus in southwest Pakistan’s Balochistan province late on Tuesday, officials said. – Reuters
The Supreme Court has told India’s top podcaster to stop doing any shows until further notice, days after he was charged with obscenity, legal news website LiveLaw said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Pakistan’s army said on Tuesday it killed 30 Islamist militants in South Waziristan near the border with Afghanistan during an operation to clear the tribal district of the militants, who operate in both countries. – Reuters
The State Department office overseeing the resettlement of Afghans in the United States has been told to develop plans to close by April, according to a U.S. official, a leading advocate and two sources familiar with the directive, a move that could deny up to an estimated 200,000 people new lives in America. – Reuters
Police in Indian-controlled Kashmir raided bookstores and seized hundreds of books linked to a major Islamic organization in the disputed region, where strict controls on the press have escalated in recent years. – Associated Press
Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation, is currently undergoing a political transition after widespread protests ousted its authoritarian government last year. An interim administration is currently in charge but there are concerns that Islamist groups, which had been pushed to the fringes, have become emboldened again. – BBC
Asia
The Philippines has accused China of being “reckless” when it flew a military helicopter within 10 feet of a Philippine aircraft over the South China Sea, where the two countries are locked in a tense territorial dispute. – Washington Post
Before Christmas, a contingent of 105 U.S. Marines who would have been sent to Okinawa were redirected to a new base on the United States territory of Guam instead. – New York Times
The United States condemned the “dangerous” manoeuvres of a Chinese navy helicopter that endangered the safety of a Philippine government aircraft patrolling a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, its ambassador to Manila said on Wednesday. – Reuters
China opposes Vietnam’s construction activities on a disputed islet in the South China Sea known as the Barque Canada Reef, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Some 7,000 people rescued from illegal call centre operations in Myanmar were waiting be transferred to Thailand, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Australian billionaire Clive Palmer launched on Wednesday a political party he said was directly inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump, months out from a nationwide federal election. – Reuters
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has asked the Supreme Court to nullify an impeachment complaint against her, making her first legal move to fight the case that could lead to her removal and lead to a lifetime ban from public office. – Reuters
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said on Wednesday his country must “reset” its relationship with the Cook Islands government after its Pacific neighbour signed agreements with China without consultation. – Reuters
Pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai is physically breaking down in a Hong Kong prison and “time is running out” for him if the U.S. and Britain do not push for his release, his son said. – Reuters
Australia’s military is being targeted by foreign intelligence over its AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership with the United States and Britain, and faces growing espionage and sabotage threats, Australia’s spy chief said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Kazakhstan will seek contact with Ukraine in order to avoid any repeat of this week’s Ukrainian drone strike in southern Russia that hit a pumping station of the main Kazakh oil export pipeline, an official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters
The main organization coordinating resistance to Myanmar’s military government says its forces have arrested 10 members of a local resistance group suspected in the killing of a Catholic village priest last week in the country’s northwest. – Associated Press
The South Pacific country of Cook Islands on Tuesday unveiled the details of a deal with China to boost cooperation on matters including mining seabed minerals, after the pact provoked a rare diplomatic clash with the nation’s chief benefactor, New Zealand, and protests at home. – Associated Press
A Japanese court on Wednesday convicted a man who threw a homemade pipe bomb at Japan’s former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a 2023 campaign event, sentencing him to 10 years in prison, court officials said. – Associated Press
Rights activists in Singapore and Malaysia will hold candlelight vigils Wednesday to protest capital punishment as Singaporean authorities prepare to execute a Malaysian man for drug trafficking despite mounting pressure to halt the sentencing. – Associated Press
New government regulations on social media in Vietnam give authorities increased powers to prevent dissent and control the news, along with the tools to more easily track down critics and silence them, according to an analysis released Tuesday. – Associated Press
Cambodian lawmakers on Tuesday unanimously approved a bill that will toughen penalties for anyone denying that atrocities were carried out in the late 1970s under the rule of the communist Khmer Rouge, whose brutal policies are blamed for the deaths of 1.7 million people. – Associated Press
Efforts to shut down online scam centers in Myanmar appeared to gain momentum on Monday as a top Chinese security official visited both sides of the Thai-Myanmar border ahead of expected large-scale repatriations of workers in the illicit industry. – Associated Press
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been advised by government officials to soften his rhetoric related to the Israel-Hamas war to avoid any scrutiny or retaliation from US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Europe
Europe over recent years has come together against the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The European Union held strong in the face of Britain’s exit. But faced with its biggest crisis in years—President Trump’s high-speed effort to end the war in Ukraine by negotiating directly with Russia—Europe has reverted to form in a blur of inconclusive meetings and squabbling governments. – Wall Street Journal
Polling at around 21% ahead of Sunday’s federal parliamentary election, the AfD still has pariah status among other major political parties in a country where far-right politics has long carried a stigma because of the Nazi past. – Reuters
The EU’s competition chief says U.S. President Donald Trump has upended the “trustful relationship” between the United States and Europe, and that Brussels should focus on providing the predictability and stability that is lacking in Washington. – Reuters
France plans to a host a second meeting to discuss Ukraine and European security on Wednesday, but has this time invited European countries not present earlier this week and NATO ally Canada, diplomatic sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Faced with U.S. demands to provide the military muscle to enforce a future Ukraine peace deal, Europe finds itself in a bind. Experts say that sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine might stretch and weaken NATO’s own defences, and that the mission would still need U.S. support to succeed. – Reuters
Romania’s foreign minister said he had not come under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy to lift restrictions on social media influencer Andrew Tate, who faces human trafficking charges, despite them discussing the case. – Reuters
EU envoys on Wednesday agreed on the 16th package of sanctions against Russia, EU diplomats said on Monday, including a ban on primary aluminium imports, sales of gaming consoles and the listing of 73 shadow fleet vessels. – Reuters
Four candidates are bidding to be Germany’s next leader in Sunday’s election. The would-be chancellors are the incumbent, the opposition leader, the current vice chancellor and — for the first time — a leader of a far-right party. – Associated Press
Prosecutors in Poland said Tuesday they are considering whether to open a criminal investigation into an open-air exhibition in 2022 of damaged Russian military vehicles after one of them was found to contain live explosives. – Associated Press
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said Tuesday that he has received U.S. assurances that Washington will not reduce its troop presence in Poland and elsewhere along NATO’s eastern flank. – Associated Press
German NGOs are joining the call on EU authorities to designate Masar Badil, or the ‘Alternative Palestinian Revolutionary Path,’ as a terrorist organization, and ban the pro-terror group in the continent as a whole. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: The AfD’s foreign-policy views should give Americans pause. Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla in December suggested Germany should withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization because NATO is too dominated by America. Alice Weidel, the party’s candidate for chancellor, said in September she believes “U.S. interests in Germany are diametrically opposed to our security interests.” The party taps into a deep well of suspicion of the U.S. and sympathy for Russia among its voters in the former East Germany. – Wall Street Journal
Hal Brands writes: If Europe doesn’t rally, it could fragment, as the more vibrant, vulnerable eastern countries band together and leave the western laggards behind. Or perhaps a declining Europe will simply be caught between a diffident, sometimes hostile America on one side, and the predatory autocratic powers on the other. That would be an astonishing outcome for the continent that once ruled the globe. In the age of Trump, it’s no longer so inconceivable. – Bloomberg
Africa
The Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group battling for power in Sudan’s ruinous civil war, took a step toward forming its own breakaway government on Tuesday when it hosted a lavish political event in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. – New York Times
The shore of Lake Kivu in Rwanda offers leisure and relaxation. Across the border in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the same lake displayed devastation and misery after an armed group called M23 captured the lakeside city of Goma last month. – New York Times
Burundi is withdrawing its forces from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo where they had been fighting against M23 rebels, four sources said on Tuesday, in a further blow to Congo’s army as it struggles to halt a rebel advance. – Reuters
Rwanda-backed M23 insurgents shot dead three boys who had picked up guns left by Congolese soldiers fleeing the rebel advance in eastern Congo, the U.N. said on Tuesday, adding the incident to a list of grave human rights violations reported during the conflict. – Reuters
A Tuareg-dominated rebel alliance in northern Mali accused Malian soldiers, accompanied by Russian Wagner mercenaries, of killing 24 civilians travelling north to Algeria from the city of Gao, as the army reported clashes in the region. – Reuters
Zambia has suspended a 15% export tax on precious stones and metals in a bid to enhance competitiveness on the global market and draw investment, the finance ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Attacks by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces have killed more than 200 people over the past three days, activists said on Tuesday, as the paramilitary group delayed signing a political charter that could pave the way for a breakaway government. – Reuters
Britain said on Tuesday it had summoned the Rwandan High Commissioner following advances by the Rwandan Defence Force and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. – Reuters
The Commonwealth called on Tuesday for Uganda, a member of the 56-nation group, to release opposition politician Kizza Besigye, saying his detention undermined democracy and human rights. – Reuters
African leaders have approved the establishment of a continental financial stability fund, the African Development Bank (AfDB) said, a move designed to stave off potential debt crises on the continent before they take hold. – Reuters
Uganda discharged on Tuesday the last eight patients who recovered from Ebola, health authorities reported, and there were no other positive cases in the outbreak declared last month. – Associated Press
Rwanda suspended development cooperation with Belgium for trying to “sabotage” its access to financing amid disagreements over its role in the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. 0 Bloomberg
Uganda deployed more forces to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting the growing risk of a widening conflict in the unrest-prone, mineral-rich region. – Bloomberg
Denis Mukwege writes: This is not the first time the world has overlooked violence in Congo […]The world has the power to act. We must all call on their leaders to take action and deliver justice for the Congolese people. States and international institutions must uphold Congolese sovereignty and place sanctions on Rwanda for its continued support of armed groups in Congo and plundering of Congolese resources. The inaction must end. Our people deserve justice. Our children deserve a future. And the world must finally decide if the values it claims to uphold apply to all of humanity or only a chosen few. – New York Times
Magatte Wade writes: Current trends will have a profound impact on African prosperity, and America’s role in it. The U.S. could be celebrated as an ally in supporting African prosperity by supporting entrepreneurial capitalism in Africa, even as it defunds anti-capitalist non-governmental organizations. Any failure to prioritize African trade would be a colossal mistake, leaving the continent little choice but to turn to American adversaries. Africans need partners, not patrons. – The Hill
The Americas
Brazil’s Attorney General’s Office charged former President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday with plotting to overturn his 2022 election loss as the country’s authorities zero in on one of President Trump’s closest allies in Latin America. – Wall Street Journal
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro on Tuesday said drug traffickers have acquired two missiles which they plan to fire at his plane, in order to kill him, citing the success of his efforts to tackle the drug trade. – Reuters
Honduran President Xiomara Castro said Tuesday that her government reached an agreement with the United States to continue a century-old extradition treaty. – Reuters
Businesses shut down and public transport was at a standstill Tuesday in Colombia’s Choco department, as rebels from the National Liberation Army, or ELN, launched a three-day “armed strike” that confines civilians to their homes and restricts commercial activity. – Associated Press
Despite promises to improve the system, critics say the Dominican Republic continues to push for and allow pretrial detentions in nearly all criminal cases where no charges have been filed and has made few changes as problems within prisons keep mounting. – Associated Press
Brazil’s government on Tuesday approved joining OPEC+, a group of major oil-exporting nations, signaling the country’s evolution into a major oil state just nine months ahead of hosting the United Nations’ annual climate summit. – Associated Press
Authorities in Haiti have issued more than a dozen arrest warrants against suspects accused of backing gang members that have been attacking a peaceful community near the capital for the past three weeks. – Associated Press
Officials say six soldiers in Guyana were injured when armed men in neighboring Venezuela opened fire in an attack expected to further heighten tensions between the two South American countries. – Associated Press
North America
The United States has stepped up secret drone flights over Mexico to hunt for fentanyl labs, part of the Trump administration’s more aggressive campaign against drug cartels, according to U.S. officials. – New York Times
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday looked to downplay a report of covert U.S. drone flights spying on drug cartels in Mexico, saying it was part of a “little campaign,” without giving further details. – Reuters
Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said Tuesday that he will meet with Trump administration officials in Washington on Thursday in what he called “the first conversation” in a series of negotiations between the two countries. – Associated Press
United States
President Trump signed an executive order that seeks to give his political appointees far-reaching control over government agencies that Congress established to operate with some independence of the White House, the latest in a series of challenges the president has levied against longstanding structures of the federal government. – Wall Street Journal
One in five Americans have said they are purchasing more items than usual primarily due to concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a CreditCards.com report, opens new tab showed on Tuesday, reflecting heightened consumer anxiety over potential price hikes and economic uncertainty. – Reuters
A U.S. judge dismissed a lawsuit against the CIA by journalists and lawyers who said the intelligence agency illegally spied on them when they visited Wikileaks founder Julian Assange while he was holed up at Ecuador’s embassy in London. – Reuters
A judge on Tuesday declined to immediately block Elon Musk’s government efficiency department from directing firings of federal workers or accessing databases, but said the case raises questions about Musk’s apparent unchecked authority as a top deputy to President Donald Trump. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine after an initial meeting that excluded Kyiv, a departure from Washington’s previous approach that rallied U.S. allies to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reuters
President Donald Trump’s oldest son argued the US should be prepared to deal with any military challenge from China, yet remain open to talks with its rival. – Bloomberg
America’s adversaries, such as Russia and Belarus, are becoming increasingly emboldened to detain U.S. civilians to coerce Washington into lopsided deals that serve their political and strategic interests, experts said. – Newsweek
An anti-Israeli demonstration held last night (Wednesday) in one of New York’s Jewish strongholds, Boro Park, deteriorated into physical violence by the protesters, who were chanting, “settlers go back home, Palestine is ours alone,” “Zionists go to hell,” and “We don’t want no Zionists here.” Most wore masks or keffiyehs to cover their faces. – Arutz Sheva
Cybersecurity
The Philippines has detected foreign attempts to access intelligence data, but its cyber minister said on Tuesday no breaches have been recorded so far. – Reuters
Some of China’s prominent business leaders, including the heads of carmakers BYD and Xiaomi, said they would resist external pressure and keep innovating, following a rare meeting between President Xi Jinping and the private sector. – Reuters
Public interest groups on Tuesday asked the full 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reconsider a ruling that the Federal Communications Commission lacked legal authority to reinstate landmark net neutrality rules. – Reuters