Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers has become an “empty shell”, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on Twitter on Wednesday. – Reuters 

British foreign minister Liz Truss spoke with her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Monday and told him it was time for final decisions in talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, the foreign office said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

The Biden administration’s former deputy special envoy for Iran, Richard Nephew, says he stepped down from his post “due to a sincere difference of opinion concerning policy.” – Times of Israel  

A top Iranian security official has indicated that verification and guarantees would be among the things needed to reach an agreement to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty  

Israel sent a team to the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna for the first time on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to make its concerns heard. – Jerusalem Post  

Iran has proposed that the US Congress makes a “political statement” of its commitment to a nuclear accord with Tehran as talks in Vienna to revive the deal reach a critical juncture. – Financial Times

The European Union’s top diplomat said Monday a revived nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was “in sight” and urged negotiators to compromise. Josep Borrell’s comments came after a phone call with Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on the Vienna talks. – Bloomberg 

Salem Alketbi writes: Any agreement that might result from the Vienna negotiations would be a limited or conditional return to the original 2015 agreement at best. With respect to regional security and stability, there is not much new, but we should expect more chaos. – Jerusalem Post  

Turkey

A team of senior officials from Turkey will travel to Israel ahead of President Isaac Herzog’s planned trip to Ankara, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday, as the regional rivals work to repair ties after years of animosity. – Reuters 

Turkey and the United Arab Emirates signed a defense industry cooperation agreement and a series of economic accords, cementing their newfound rapprochement after the Gulf nation came under attack by Iranian-backed fighters. – Bloomberg 

Israel did not condition improved relations with Turkey on the latter no longer harboring Hamas terror cells, a senior diplomatic source said overnight Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Josh Rogin writes: This primary campaign will likely be ugly, and it will be difficult to separate the good-faith concerns from the bad-faith attacks on Oz. In the coming months, Oz will be required to disclose more information that will show whether he has fully disentangled himself from whatever business ties Erdogan might see as leverage against a U.S. senator — and voters will make their own judgments. – Washington Post 

Yemen

Yemenis face more cuts in humanitarian aid in coming months because of funding shortages that could reduce food rations in a country where millions face starvation, the United Nations aid chief warned, as the war sees its biggest escalation in years. – Reuters  

An ‘agreement in principle’ has been reached to transfer the toxic cargo from a rusting oil tanker abandoned off the coast of war-torn Yemen to another ship, the UN said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse 

Israel has been pressing the Biden administration to designate Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a terror group, at the United Arab Emirates’ behest, two officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel  

Neville Teller writes: The militancy of the Houthis, backed by Iranian military hardware, is growing and to their shame, they are making increasing use of children. […]The US-Iran nuclear deal talks in Vienna seem close to an agreement. Is Biden still wedded to his original Iran-appeasement policy, has he moved sufficiently to sponsor an initiative of this sort or is he content to see a rampant Iran actually conquer Yemen? – Jerusalem Post

Gerald Feirstein writes: There is no debate either in Yemen or in the international community, that the Yemen conflict must be brought to a peaceful conclusion through a negotiating process. Moreover, the international community can play a helpful role in achieving that objective. But the starting point has to be a willingness to recognize the basic facts on the ground. That means addressing specifically, and with the tools that we have, the issue of Houthi intransigence and resistance to negotiation. – War on the Rocks 

Middle East & North Africa

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi told a conference in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday that the organization is working with Egypt and Saudi Arabia to help them to develop nuclear power. – Reuters  

The Prime Minister of Iraq’s Kurdistan region Masrour Barzani said on Wednesday that he explored Kurdistan’s “huge gas potential” in a meeting with Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi. – Reuters  

An investigative judge said Tuesday she may sue Lebanon’s police chief, accusing him of preventing a security force from bringing in for questioning the central bank governor, who is accused of corruption. – Associated Press 

Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry. – Reuters 

U.S. officials have met with Tunisian civil society representatives amid Washington’s concern over the dissolution of the Supreme Judicial Council, the U.S. embassy in Tunisia said on Tuesday, escalating international pressure on President Kais Saied. – Reuters 

Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said Tuesday that the welcome she received from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at a conference in Cairo a day earlier was “surprising” and “exciting,” and made her feel “great pride.” – Algemeiner 

Hezbollah’s elite ski unit took to the slopes in south Lebanon, preparing to fight against Israeli troops. – Jerusalem Post  

China

The Biden administration, in devising what it vows would be punishing economic penalties if Russia were to attack Ukraine, is factoring in whether China would come to Moscow’s aid and circumvent sanctions and other punitive measures. – Wall Street Journal  

Inflationary pressure in China continued to ease in January, offering room for Beijing to stimulate growth while more major economies are looking to tighten policy to curb rising prices. – Wall Street Journal 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping told Hong Kong’s government to control a spiraling Covid-19 outbreak that has overwhelmed the city’s healthcare system, highlighting Beijing’s growing concerns over the crisis while raising the likelihood of even tighter restrictions in the global financial hub. – Wall Street Journal  

The website of a UK-based advocacy group appears to have become inaccessible through some networks in Hong Kong, raising fears of mainland-style internet censorship in the Chinese territory. – The Guardian 

John Bolton writes: Beijing is not a regional threat but a global one. Treating the rest of the world as a third-tier priority, a distraction, the U.S. plays directly into China’s hands. Pivoting to Asia wouldn’t strengthen America against China. It would have precisely the opposite effect and weaken our global posture. – Wall Street Journal 

David Von Drehle writes: There is a path forward that neither caves in to tyranny nor invites global war: a strong, determined teamwork on behalf of liberty and the rule of law. Putin and Xi believe the West no longer has the will to achieve this. Their overreach has tripped the alarm. – Washington Post  

Tom Rogan writes: Ultimately, these are only a few of the examples of China’s covert influence efforts. Many others almost certainly remain undetected. But the lesson is clear: As it seeks the mantle of global leadership, China is committed to working in the shadows and playing the long game. – Washington Examiner 

Russia

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was withdrawing troops from Crimea following the completion of military drills as Western intelligence reports that Moscow could invade its smaller neighbor as soon as Wednesday didn’t immediately materialize. – Wall Street Journal 

As Russian President Vladimir Putin sends mixed signals about his willingness to invade Ukraine, his military continues to undertake activities that appear designed not only to ready an offensive but to thwart any attempt by the United States and NATO to intervene, according to Western officials and analysts. – Washington Post  

Now, after five years of slowly rebuilding access to the highest ranks of the Kremlin, America’s intelligence agencies face a crucial test: deciphering whether Mr. Putin will use the more than 150,000 troops he has amassed near the Ukrainian border to invade, or merely to give him leverage as he dangles the prospect of a diplomatic settlement. – New York Times  

Joe Biden has said there is “plenty of room for diplomacy” to resolve the Ukraine crisis, bolstering hopes that time is available for talks that would lead to Russia stepping back from an invasion of its neighbour. – Financial Times  

Boris Johnson said the U.K. proposes to stop Russian firms from raising capital in London’s financial markets, part of measures targeting Vladimir Putin’s administration if it decides to invade Ukraine. – Bloomberg 

Imprisoned Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny said he would keep challenging Russia’s leadership during the opening of a new fraud trial that could extend his jail term by more than a decade. – Agence France-Presse  

David Ignatius writes: Putin’s course might already be set for Kyiv. It’s hard to imagine that he has moved a vast army to the Ukrainian border twice in the past year, only to retreat. But the Kremlin chess master might have recognized that his most valuable assets are at risk — and that even with an intimidating opening, he probably can’t win a long match against a West that appears united against Russian aggression. – Washington Post  

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Putin’s interests are served by turning Ukraine into a pawn in a great-power game. Western leaders may insist that this will not happen, and that Ukrainians’ choices will be respected, but the dynamics of the current crisis contradict them… A compromise with Putin is politically unfeasible for him, so he needs to hold out and watch Biden spar with his Russian adversary. It’s an unenviable position to be in. The West owes Ukraine a better effort — in both diplomatic and financial terms — to make it tenable. – Bloomberg  

Tom Rogan writes: Invasion likely isn’t coming tomorrow. But it remains very likely to occur in the near future. Putin’s policy toward Ukraine takes root in a sense of destiny born of the Middle Ages, not the transitory political give and take of one moment. Do not underestimate his resolve. – Washington Examiner 

Douglas London writes: The choice with Russia is to escalate or capitulate. There is risk in any exercise of power, but for that matter, there is also risk in not acting at all. Spying is fundamentally about managing risk to achieve goals. Trading some degree of collection capability to deter a threat is logical, but only up to a point. Putin cannot be shamed, after all. The Biden administration needs to take care that its big revelations not only have a big impact but also don’t tie its own hands. – Foreign Affairs 

Emily Harding writes: Putin holds it within his power to avert a great deal of suffering by standing down Russian forces. That could still happen if Putin claims “exercises” are over. Should he decide to invade, however, NATO members should stand in Russia’s way—and by the side of the Ukrainians. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Africa

Al Shabaab militants attacked several police stations and security checkpoints in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu early on Wednesday, officials and the militants said, a show of force as the nation prepares for a much-delayed presidential election. – Reuters 

President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce France’s intention to withdraw its forces from Mali, diplomatic sources said, after he hosts a top-level meeting on the Sahel region of Africa on Wednesday. – Reuters

France’s highest court, the Cour de Cassation, on Tuesday upheld a decision by investigative magistrates in 2018 to drop an investigation into the killing of Rwanda’s then-president in 1994, which triggered a genocide. – Reuters  

Ethiopia’s parliament on Tuesday lifted a wartime state of emergency imposed last November when Tigrayan rebels threatened to advance on the capital, easing restrictions earlier than expected. – Agence France-Presse  

With China reducing its spending in Africa, Europe sees a chance to boost its influence. At a two-day gathering of European and African leaders in Brussels this week, the EU hopes to unveil a series of major projects that will benefit from €150 billion in funding it has already pledged for its southern neighbors. – Politico 

Nigerian payments company Flutterwave has raised $250mn, giving it a $3bn valuation and making it the most valuable start-up in Africa as international investors bet on the continent’s scene. – Financial Times  

Cybersecurity

Facebook and Google are under growing pressure to better balance privacy and ad-targeting — with their fortunes at stake as users rebel, regulators loom and Apple pounces on the moment to polish its image. – Agence France-Presse 

The Israeli government’s innovation arm, together with the country’s defense ministry, has announced a $62 million investment toward building the country’s first quantum computer. – Algemeiner  

Analysts have noticed various attempts in recent years by hackers trying to breach entities in the aviation and aerospace industries, as well as related transportation fields. The operators typically use of off-the-shelf malware and deploy digital lures that refer to industry-specific topics like airline cargo conferences or machine parts. – CyberScoop 

Editorial: The question shouldn’t be whether companies gather unnecessary amounts of sensitive information about their users sneakily — it should be whether companies amass these troves at all. Until Congress ensures that’s true for the whole country, Americans will be clicking through policies and prompts that do little to protect them. – Washington Post