Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran’s theocratic rulers are extending their clampdown beyond the streets and into the broader political sphere, targeting politicians who took a stand against the bloody crackdown on protesters. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration covertly sent thousands of Starlink terminals into Iran after the regime’s brutal crackdown on demonstrations last month, U.S. officials said, an effort to keep dissidents online following Tehran’s stifling of internet access. – Wall Street Journal

The European Union’s aviation safety regulator on Thursday recommended the bloc’s airlines stay out of Iran’s airspace until March 31, saying it was extending an earlier warning. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said that he could see negotiations with Iran stretching for as long as a month, as he seeks a diplomatic agreement that would roll back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. – Bloomberg

Iranian authorities have dismissed a provincial television director after a reporter appeared to call for the death of the country’s supreme leader. – Agence France-Presse

Iran’s election as vice-chair of the United Nations Commission for Social Development is being slammed by human rights advocates and policy analysts, who have condemned the U.N.’s hypocrisy when it comes to its treatment of undemocratic regimes. – Fox News

High-resolution satellite imagery of Iran’s largest and most crucial remaining nuclear facility shows a recent rush to protect it from potential US or Israeli aerial attack, according to the Institute for Science and International Security (the “good ISIS”). – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Iran has never been weaker than they are right now,” a former presidential candidate, Nikki Haley, told Fox News Tuesday. “You don’t want to send all these resources over there, and then still have the Iranian regime standing.” Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers at home and abroad, though, fear regime change. “If the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that’s up to the Iranian people,” Vice President Vance says. Yet as a veteran Farsi broadcaster, Menashe Amir, tells our Benny Avni, America and Israel can strike the Revolutionary Guards in their camps and jam their communications. The hope is that the long-suffering Iranian people will do the rest. – New York Sun

Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: I hope that the American armada deployed in the Red Sea, in the Gulf of Oman and at the entrance to the Persian Gulf isn’t a mere negotiating backdrop, bargaining chip or communications ploy, but that as I write, it is identifying its targets, pinpointing the weaknesses in enemy defenses, mapping the nerve centers of power—that it is preparing to strike. The time for regime change has come. That is what Mr. Trump promised the women and men who, bare-handed and at the risk of their lives, defied this murderous regime when he announced that “help is on the way.” – Wall Street Journal

Zvika Klein writes: America First calls for a policy that protects Americans with discipline and force where it counts. That can mean a direct campaign against the IRGC. That can mean a step-by-step strategy that fractures the regime’s instruments of control and terror. Either way, the doctrine has to meet the reality in front of it because the IRGC has already met America. – Jerusalem Post

Sanam Vakil and Alex Vatanka write:  But whatever Washington does, these groups need to start working together, and quickly. The Islamic Republic has reached a dead end. It refuses to meet popular social demands and is incapable of fixing the country’s many economic problems. It will thus have little choice but to rely ever more heavily on fear to keep itself in power, making further protests inevitable. The question, then, is not whether Iran will have new crises. It is whether the opposition will be ready when those crises come. – Foreign Affairs

Eli Lake writes: Mohtadi’s insight suggests that Iran’s regime was not nearly as vulnerable to mass demonstrations as Trump and Iran’s exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi claimed at the time. Rather, the security forces made preparations to crush the uprising that began in the last days of December, when merchants in the big cities began demonstrating against the regime after the collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial. – The Free Press

Syria

The U.S. military has nearly completed the transfer of thousands of suspected Islamic State fighters to the Iraqi government, setting the stage for the expected withdrawal of many — perhaps even all — American troops from Syria within months, officials familiar with the issue said. – Washington Post

Syrian government forces have taken control of a base in the east of the country that was run for years by U.S. troops as part of the war against the Islamic State group, the Defense Ministry said in a statement Thursday. – Associated Press

Syria expects economic growth to double to close to 10% this year, as the lifting of US sanctions helps fuel a recovery from more than a decade of civil war. – Bloomberg

Editorial: If the new Syrian army takes up the counterterrorism mission against ISIS and works to shut down Iranian arms smuggling, which continues at a smaller scale, there should be little reason to mention al-Tanf in the future. Washington will only cheer on Mr. Sharaa in re-establishing state sovereignty. If, if, if. Perhaps the best way Mr. Trump can help his bet is to stop Iran’s smuggling at its source and hit that regime everywhere it hurts. – Wall Street Journal

Korean Peninsula

The young daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears increasingly positioned to become the rogue nation’s next leader, Seoul’s spy agency said, though Pyongyang itself has stayed mum on succession plans. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea will convene the Ninth Party Congress this month, a major political undertaking aimed at showcasing leader Kim Jong Un’s absolute grip on power and his image as a benevolent leader at home and as head of a world-class military. – Reuters

North Korea is expected to convene the Ninth Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party this month, the country’s biggest political gathering that reviews performance, sets new policy goals and can bring leadership change. – Reuters

The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said Friday it was “sensible” for a South Korean government official to express regret for alleged civilian drone flights over North Korea but warned of counterattacks if they recur. – Associated Press

South Asia

This week, millions in Bangladesh voted in the first elections since student-led protests ousted the country’s longtime authoritarian leader, Sheikh Hasina, in 2024. – Wall Street Journal

This week, further announcements from the White House turned that deal into a cluster headache for Mr. Modi. He secured a big decrease in the main tariff, to 18 percent, which is now in line with India’s main competitors in Asia. But, in exchange, the potential costs to be borne by India in terms of trade and foreign policy have turned out to be multiplying. – New York Times

India on Thursday gave initial clearance for a 3.6-trillion-rupee ($40 billion) boost to the country’s armed forces, including procurement of more Rafale fighter jets for the air force and Boeing P-8I reconnaissance aircraft for the navy. – Reuters

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will attend the first meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” next week in Washington, the country’s foreign office said on Thursday. – Reuters

A coalition of major trade unions and farmers’ groups in India mounted a nationwide strike Thursday to protest an interim trade deal with the United States, saying the agreement undermines the interests of farmers, small businesses and workers. – Associated Press

Karishma Vaswani writes: Diversifying political partners is prudent. Bangladesh has recently deepened defense engagement with Pakistan, in a move that will surely rile India. The two nations have resumed direct trade for the first time since the 1971 war that led to Bangladesh’s independence, while military officials have restarted regular exchanges. The new leader has to balance these powerful nations without becoming beholden to them. If he succeeds, it will redefine the strategic map of South Asia. And whether he is able to deliver a more hopeful future to his young electorate will determine whether this political reset stabilizes the country, or fuels another cycle of unrest. – Bloomberg

Europe

Germany’s top military officer, Gen. Carsten Breuer, stood astride a map of Lithuania laid out on the floor of a makeshift command post in this port city on the Baltic Sea. – Wall Street Journal

The land and resource grabs have alarmed even once-close allies, compelling them to consider other, less obvious risks. The most pointed stems from American dominance over the global financial networks and technology systems that undergird nearly every purchase or exchange of information made by citizens, businesses and governments. Allies are concerned for their financial independence and the security of confidential national data. – New York Times

Calling the NATO alliance “the cornerstone of United States national security” and “vital” to preserving American global interests, eight former U.S. ambassadors to NATO and eight former American supreme commanders in Europe on Thursday issued a joint letter arguing for continuing Washington’s commitment to the alliance. – New York Times

It has been a dizzying unraveling of the friendship that bound the West together for three-quarters of a century, since World War II. That has left European leaders more wary — and in some cases, more defiant — toward America, as they prepare to meet again in Munich, starting Friday, for Europe’s largest annual gathering of politicians and security officials. – New York Times

One year after U.S. Vice President JD Vance attacked European allies at the Munich Security Conference, Washington’s partners will be seeking to chart a more independent course, while preserving the basis of the alliance. – Reuters

Bruno Retailleau, a former French interior minister and head of the centre-right Republicans party, announced on Thursday he will run for president in the 2027 election, the latest figure to try their luck succeeding President Emmanuel Macron. – Reuters

The advocate general for European Union’s highest court on Thursday urged the court to annul a 2023 European Commission decision to release billions in funding to Hungary that had been suspended over rule-of-law and corruption concerns. – Associated Press

Germany’s highest court on Thursday threw out a case brought by a Palestinian civilian from Gaza who sought to sue the German government over its weapons exports to Israel. – Agence France-Presse

A Russian air attack late last month damaged Ukraine’s part of oil pipeline Druzhba, halting supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Slovakia’s Economy Ministry. – Bloomberg

As Germany pushes forward with a trillion euro-expansion of its military, the federal government is starting to worry about defense contractors’ reliance on geopolitical rivals such as China — and even the US. – Bloomberg

NATO is beefing up its Arctic presence in a move designed less to deter Russia than it is to deter Donald Trump. – Politico

A Greek air force colonel currently held on espionage charges faces a life sentence if found guilty of leaking top-secret NATO military plans to China in exchange for cash. – Newsweek

World Jewish Congress (WJC) President Ronald S. Lauder on Thursday called for the removal of UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese, joining a growing list of those who have called for her removal due to her constant anti-Israel statements. – Arutz Sheva

Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court on Thursday dismissed a case brought by a Palestinian Arab from Gaza who sought to sue the German government over its weapons exports to Israel, AFP reported. – Arutz Sheva

An antisemitic incident was reported today in Hamburg, Germany, after unknown individuals carved the word “Jew” onto the mailbox of a Jewish family living in the city’s Harburg district. – Arutz Sheva

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: Yet too many NATO members continue to show “a fundamental lack of understanding of the modern battlefield” and train their soldiers “based on doctrines and manuals that are not adapted to today’s realities,” says Maria Lemberg of the Ukrainian nonprofit Aerorozvidka, which supported Delta’s development. […] Multiple sources told the story of one commander, who observed the drill and concluded, “We are f—.” I asked Estonia’s Col. Probal about this reaction. He said that one aim of the exercise was to help participants “think more, to make them critical toward themselves, to make sure they are not complacent in what they are doing right now.” Was it a success? “From my point of view, mission accomplished.” – Wall Street Journal

Marco Vicenzino writes: None of this makes Davos irrelevant. It remains a useful venue for coordination and signaling elite consensus on a variety of issues. But these are no longer the most valuable signals for businesses in a world defined by conflict. For executives and investors, foreign affairs are no longer background noise; they should be a major factor in decision-making. Capital allocation must reflect power realities, not just efficiency metrics in a geopolitical vacuum. Davos may still offer comfort, but Munich offers foresight. Markets increasingly reward those who understand the difference. – Wall Street Journal

Christopher Caldwell writes: There is nothing more vain than predicting a politician’s legacy. Widely celebrated though Angela Merkel’s decision to welcome migrants was in 2015, its main consequence has been not a more inclusive Germany, but the rise of the populist party Alternative for Germany. There are indications that Mr. Sánchez, contrary to those who see him as a countervailing force to the rising populism of the West, could take Spain down the same route that Ms. Merkel’s country has been traveling for the past decade. – New York Times

Gev Iskajyan and Victoria Topalian write: It teaches Turkey that even genocide recognition can be walked back with a single deleted post. And it teaches Armenians that American support is conditional, fleeting and ultimately subordinate to other geopolitical priorities. If the United States wants a durable peace in the Caucasus, it cannot speak in two voices. In this region, mixed signals do not preserve peace. They invite the next atrocity. – Newsweek

Sara Bjerg Moller writes: The Trump administration, however, does not seem to appreciate the unavoidable tradeoff that would accompany such a shift. By shrinking its share of the burden, Washington would inevitably also shrink the scope of its control of NATO. […] The United States may not be withdrawing outright from NATO. But its quiet disengagement from its role as alliance manager, honed over decades to the shared benefit of Washington and Europe, will close the book on nearly a century of productive partnership, permanently weakening the United States in the process. – Foreign Affairs

Ronan Murphy writes: Europe acknowledges it has a competitiveness problem. It has drawn up plans to simplify rules and ramp up the internal market. These changes cannot happen soon enough. For all the conflict, the EU and the US are natural partners on tech, and both sides should continue to seek opportunities for cooperation to maintain independence from China. US tech leadership would be bolstered by working with its European allies. There is no prospect of a ceremonial handshake resetting transatlantic relations on tech or anything else. If the planned conversations in Munich are a guide, Europe is preparing to eke out its future, not by cutting all ties across the Atlantic Ocean, but by reducing the risk of overreliance on them. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Eric Alter writes: In a darker scenario, Europe must declare and defend its own destiny. It requires not only a change in tone and style, as advocated by the American 2026 NDS, but also a decisive embrace of the hard realities of assuming primary responsibility for defense spending and capability buildup. A European Monroe Doctrine would bring defensive realism to Europe’s global pole position. Without it, the continent risks becoming a pawn in conflicts waged by others. – National Interest

The Americas

Small cracks are starting to show in the Venezuelan government’s repression machine. Political prisoners are trickling out of detention centers. A television station broke a longstanding taboo and aired comments from opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado. – Wall Street Journal

Peru’s congress on Thursday secured enough signatures to begin a debate on the removal and censure of President Jose Jeri, according to congressional documents, in the latest fallout from a scandal involving reports of his undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman. – Reuters

Oil sales from Venezuela controlled by the U.S. have totaled over $1 billion since the capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January and in the next few months will bring in another $5 billion, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told NBC News on Thursday. – Reuters

Venezuelan lawmakers on Thursday postponed debate on an amnesty bill which is meant to grant immediate clemency to individuals jailed for participating in political protests. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that billionaire energy entrepreneur and Republican donor Harry Sargeant III has no authority to act on behalf of the U.S., adding that relations between the U.S. and Venezuela had been “extraordinary.” – Reuters

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be in India for a state visit from February 18 to 22, India’s foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Venezuelan interim leader President Delcy Rodriguez said she has been invited to the United States, according an interview released Thursday by NBC News as U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas. – Reuters

Chile’s outgoing government will give humanitarian aid to Cuba, the nation’s top diplomat said Thursday, days after Mexico sent two ships filled with tons of food to the struggling communist-run island. – Bloomberg

Venezuela is experiencing a surge in protests as the socialist regime eases up on political repression following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces. – Bloomberg

Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: Cuba has run out of fuel, allies and time. Both maximal pressure and entrenched defiance might yield catastrophic outcomes. If Díaz-Canel says his government is willing to negotiate with the US “without preconditions” and Trump believes he can “work a deal” with Cuba, then a narrow diplomatic window may be the only rational path ahead. Otherwise, instead of the Castro-era slogan of “homeland or death,” Cuba’s erstwhile revolutionary regime risks offering its citizens only the grim prospect of homeland and death. – Bloomberg

United States

In June, the White House budget office received a strange request from a bureaucrat in the General Services Administration, a sleepy agency overseeing banal functions like IT contracting and real estate: Could he help build hypersonic missiles? – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s border czar said Thursday the administration is ending its crackdown in Minnesota, wrapping up an operation that sparked outrage after the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens and prompted Democrats in Congress to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security. – Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) are poised to deliver clashing visions of U.S. global leadership during a key European security summit this week where leaders will endeavor to address the world’s most pressing crises. – Washington Post

U.S. senators on Thursday criticized the brief shutdown of El Paso airport over safety concerns around the use of a military laser-based anti-drone system, saying at a hearing that the incident exposed an unacceptable lack of coordination between the Federal Aviation Administration and the Pentagon. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against the BBC can go to trial in 2027, a U.S. judge has said. Judge Roy K. Altman of the federal court for the Southern District of Florida rejected an attempt by Britain’s national broadcaster to delay proceedings. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump is heading to North Carolina on Friday to celebrate members of the special forces who stormed into Venezuela on the third day of the New Year and whisked away that country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, to face U.S. smuggling charges. – Associated Press

A federal judge on Thursday ordered the Trump administration to make arrangements to allow some of the Venezuelan migrants deported to a notorious prison in El Salvador to return to the U.S. at the government’s expense. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump has invited Latin American leaders to take part in a summit in Florida next month, gathering the officials at a moment when the administration is spotlighting what it sees as concerning Chinese influence in the region. – Associated Press

A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has introduced new legislation targeting what they describe as the Kremlin’s primary financial lifeline: oil exports. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Editorial: That doctrine holds that express authorization from Congress is required for economically and politically significant executive actions. A 6-3 majority invoked the doctrine in West Virginia v. EPA (2022), which struck down the Obama-era CO2 emissions limits for power plants. EPA’s arrogation of sweeping authority to regulate CO2 is without doubt a major question. The scope of CO2 regulation is a decision for Congress. It’s richly ironic for Democrats who denounce Mr. Trump as an authoritarian to howl that he’s relinquishing power to regulate all corners of the economy under the guise of climate that the Biden and Obama administrations unilaterally claimed. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford and its escort ships deployed to the Caribbean will be sent to the Middle East and are not expected to return to their home ports until late April or early May. – New York Times

Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby called on Thursday for NATO to be based on “partnership rather than dependency” as he arrived for talks in Brussels with the military alliance’s defence ministers. – Reuters

The U.S. military on Thursday reported two major incidents that occurred in recent days tied to the massive buildup of forces in the Caribbean Sea — a Marine who died after falling overboard and a collision between two Navy ships that left two sailors with minor injuries. – Associated Press

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll warned major US defense contractors to adapt as the Pentagon reforms its weapons-buying process — or risk being replaced, namely by commercial giants that have never done business with the Defense Department. – Bloomberg

President Trump is increasingly turning to military leaders for some of his toughest diplomatic assignments, sending top brass to help negotiate the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, a potential new nuclear deal with Iran and forge closer ties with countries in the Western Hemisphere. – The Hill

The U.S. Air Force said Thursday that government-owned autonomous software programs have been successfully integrated into both of its prototype collaborative combat aircraft, in a major milestone. – Defense News

The fiscal 2027 defense budget could double the number of ships the Navy is set to procure under the fiscal 2026 defense budget, Navy Secretary John Phelan said during a keynote address at the WEST Conference in San Diego, California, on Thursday. – Defense News

The first Columbia-class submarine is expected for delivery in 2028, and full-rate construction of the vessel is expected in the early 2030s, according to Program Executive Officer Strategic Submarines Rear Adm. Todd Weeks. – Breaking Defense

Airspace security company Fortem Technologies will protect 2026 FIFA World Cup matches in the US from hostile drones under a “multimillion-dollar order” from the Department of Homeland Security, the company announced today. – Breaking Defense

Trevor Phillips-Levine, Andrew Tenbusch, and Walker D. Mills write: The takeaway is to avoid devoting excessive resources to over-engineering individual platforms at the expense of investing in the resilience of the overall system, and to avoid unrealistic expectations that platform survivability alone mitigates operational or strategic risk. Future force design across the services should balance quality and quantity to ensure sufficient mass. When the required mass is unachievable, force design should avoid the survivability paradox and explicitly accept the gap, then deploy resources elsewhere. The U.S. military should prioritize holistic system resilience and the capacity to regenerate forces over marginal gains in individual-platform survivability, even when numerically disadvantaged. – War on the Rocks

Faine Greenwood writes: The federal government intends to take back the aerial view for itself—making it far harder for the public to purchase or to safely use the cheap drones that have permitted so much remarkable research, innovation, and investigative journalism over the last decade. At the same time, as federal agencies like DHS and state and city police systems pump yet more cash into deploying American-made surveillance drones, these specially privileged aircraft will have precedence in the skies over drones flown by everybody else. The formerly democratic promise of affordable and easy-to-use drone tech for everyone may evaporate. – Foreign Policy