Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that Hamas release Israeli hostages by noon Saturday or face a return to war, a deadline President Trump said he didn’t think the militant group would meet. – Wall Street Journal

The conditions of 24-year-old Ohel’s captivity, as described by two hostages held alongside him and released on Saturday, and the experiences of others held by Hamas who were denied needed medical care and adequate food have sparked alarm in Israel about how much longer remaining survivors can last. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations said on Tuesday aid flows into Gaza had risen significantly since a ceasefire took effect last month including for items such as tents that had faced Israeli restrictions, even as fears rise that the fragile calm might not last. – Reuters

President Mahmoud Abbas faced criticism from allies and foes alike on Tuesday over a decree overhauling payments to families of Palestinians killed or jailed by Israel, a move to satisfy a U.S. demand that will likely deepen his unpopularity. – Reuters

The Israeli military announced on Tuesday it was deploying additional forces in the country’s south, including mobilising reservists. – Reuters

Israel’s military has called up reservists in preparation for a possible resumption of fighting in Gaza if Hamas fails to meet a Saturday deadline to release more Israeli hostages and a nearly month-old ceasefire breaks down. – Reuters

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Hamas to continue with the planned release of hostages on Tuesday, a day after the Palestinian militant group announced its intention to halt the exchange. – Reuters

Yuval Vagdani woke up on Jan. 4 to a flurry of missed calls from family members and Israel’s Foreign Ministry with an urgent warning: A pro-Palestinian legal group had convinced a federal judge in Brazil to open a war crimes investigation for his alleged participation in the demolition of civilian homes in Gaza. – Associated Press

The US conveyed to Israel on Monday that the IDF must withdraw from southern Lebanon by February 18, with no further extensions to the ceasefire being granted. – Jerusalem Post

At the Haredi Strategy and Policy Institute conference, Smotrich declared: “We need to set an ultimatum for Hamas. To cut off the electricity and water, to stop the humanitarian aid. To open the gates of hell. We have to tell Hamas the moment we return to war after we round up all the terrorists, every hostage that something G-d forbid happens to, on that same day, we will annex 5% of the Gaza Strip. We have the full backing of President Trump.” – Arutz Sheva

Sources in the Hamas terrorist organization claimed Tuesday  in an interview with the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, which is published in London in Arabic, that the intelligence service of Hamas’ military wing and the senior leadership ordered the organization’s political and military leaders to stop using mobile phones and to physically hide, “to prevent them from being tracked,” according to the report. – Ynet

Editorial: By warning Hamas that the U.S. will support all hell breaking loose, Mr. Trump is offering Israel freedom of action, which could translate into negotiating leverage. The hard decisions about what to do next are up to Israelis and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His defense minister told the military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.” If Hamas doesn’t heed Mr. Trump’s warning, Israel and the U.S. will have little choice but to make Hamas believe it. – Wall Street Journal

Bret Stephens writes: If the tragedy of Gaza is ever resolved, it will probably happen through the same combination of potent threats, loud bluster and diplomatic indirection — but much faster. Little Qatar, which hosts a vast American air base and depends on the United States for its security, can exert pressure on Hamas by imprisoning the group’s leaders, who currently live in splendor in the sheikhdom, and cutting off their funds. Egypt, whose external debts have ballooned in recent years, can pressure Hamas by letting Gazans in and otherwise cutting Gaza off. – New York Times

Efraim Inbar and Yossi Kuperwasser write: At the same time, Israel must prevent the implementation of the PA’s idea to relocate Gazans to the area west of Jericho. The proximity to Jerusalem and the strategic road to the Jordan Valley, Israel’s eastern security buffer. Moreover, increasing the Arab population of Judea and Samaria would add further demographic pressure on the State of Israel – an undesirable outcome. All said, even if the Trump plan is not realized, its very introduction is beneficial for Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Gadi Hitman writes: It is very likely that Netanyahu will publicly claim that Hamas has failed to fully implement the deal and will strive to resume fighting. In this sense, Hamas’ announcement of the delay in implementation plays into the hands of Netanyahu, who wishes to return and fight (with American backing). Paradoxically, Hamas’s decision, which is apparently only a tactical threat, may turn out to be a strategic concept. – Jerusalem Post

David Makovsky writes: More important, how long can they put off formulating a “day after” approach to Gaza? Destroying Hamas appears to be Netanyahu’s guiding objective, with all else secondary. The Israeli public is skeptical that the government can both “completely defeat” Hamas and free all the hostages. Some say Netanyahu has chosen his top priority but has no strategy to defeat Hamas—something he will need to come up with soon in order to achieve his goals. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

President Trump is dispatching Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Ukraine to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the new administration takes on his pledge to end the nearly three-year-old war. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump has vowed to end the fighting in Ukraine. Just how he could do that remains unclear, given that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia believes he is winning. But in his own blunt way, Mr. Trump has opened up the possibility of some kind of negotiations for a cease-fire. – New York Times

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry launched a recruitment drive for young people on Tuesday, encouraging 18- to 24-year-olds to serve in the military for a year for the equivalent of about $24,000 and hefty bonuses. – Reuters

Russia’s early morning missile attack on Kyiv killed at least one civilian, injured three, and sparked several fires throughout the city, Ukrainian officials said. – Reuters

Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday passed a law that allows the state nuclear power operator to buy two Soviet-designed nuclear reactors from Bulgaria for Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi power plant, lawmakers said. – Reuters

Short-range aerial drones were the most common killer of civilians in Ukraine in January, the U.N.’s monitoring mission said on Tuesday, highlighting how drone use has ballooned during three years of war with Russia. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s administration is not sending U.S. troops into Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukraine has offered to strike a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump for continued American military aid in exchange for developing Ukraine’s mineral industry, which could provide a valuable source of the rare earth elements that are essential for many kinds of technology. – Associated Press

A senior Kremlin envoy said a decision by President Donald Trump’s administration to disband a team overseeing sanctions on Russia for its war on Ukraine may be an early sign the US wants to normalize relations. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is proposing an exchange of seized territory with Russia as part of any potential negotiations to end the war. – The Hill

Wolfgang Ischinger writes: It’s important we not come up with short-sighted solutions, but set long-term priorities and prepare for a difficult, painful negotiation process, which could take a long time due to its extreme complexity. Above all, we must not only continue to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine but increase it. This is the ideal way to achieve a successful outcome for the future of a sovereign, free and undivided Ukraine, and the restoration of Europe’s security. – Politico

Nataliya Gumenyuk writes: Ukraine might be able to consider a deal to end the war if, for example, it were offered membership in NATO, given enough sophisticated weapons to defend itself in the future, joined the European Union, and received from the West all the financing it needed for reconstruction. But until Washington and its European allies provide those kinds of guarantees, and until the West recognizes that Russia’s occupation is really aimed at the rest of Ukraine, Ukrainians are likely to stay committed to the war, however high the costs. And if a cease-fire is reached that does not address this continuing Russian threat, lasting peace and stability will remain elusive. – Foreign Affairs

Turkey

A U.S. judge on Tuesday ruled that a Turkish author and her son can be extradited to Turkey to face charges that he caused a reckless, fatal car crash in Istanbul and then fled the country with the help of his mother. – Reuters

Turkish police detained nine district municipal council members from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) on terrorism-related charges on Tuesday, state broadcaster TRT said, continuing a crackdown on the country’s main opposition party. – Reuters

Turkey and Turkmenistan have signed an agreement to facilitate the flow of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey, marking a significant step in energy cooperation between the two nations, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday for talks aimed at strengthening economic and defense ties between the two Muslim-majority nations. – Associated Press 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to revive peace talks with the Kurds alongside discussions with Washington over the future of US-backed Kurdish forces in neighboring Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. – Bloomberg

Arabian Peninsula

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, who control most of western Yemen including the capital, are ready to mount attacks on Israel if it resumes its assault on Gaza and does not commit to the ceasefire deal, the group’s leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United Nations said on Tuesday that one of its staff members had died in detention in northern Yemen, where the U.N. has repeatedly called for the Houthi movement to free detained U.N. employees. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei said on Wednesday he does not think Chinese AI app DeepSeek will affect demand for nuclear energy. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

North Korean state media on Wednesday denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza and relocate Palestinians as bluster and accused Washington of robbery. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok on Wednesday said he hoped for a swift agreement within the country’s parliament on an extra budget to support an economy struggling with slowing domestic demand and heightened external uncertainty. – Reuters

The secretary general of South Korea’s National Election Commission defended the integrity of the country’s elections on Tuesday amid claims by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol that votes may have been compromised. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday said his government would seek talks with the U.S. administration about Washington’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to reflect the interests of its companies. – Reuters

Robert E. Kelly and Jaekwon Suh write: The mere fact of three impeachments since 2004 suggests the South Korean presidency is too powerful, and deepening, emotionally charged polarization is only raising the stakes with each election. Without institutional reform, crises like the one Yoon has triggered are sure to recur. The centuries-old formula for making democratic governance work is to dilute power by distributing it. If it follows that script, South Korea could yet avoid repeating history. – Foreign Affairs

South Asia

As he prepared to go to Washington this week, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, spoke of building on the warm relations he shared with President Trump during his first term in the White House. – New York Times

Bangladesh has asked Adani Power to fully resume supplies from its 1,600-megawatt plant in India, a Bangladesh official said, after more than three months of reduced sales with supplies halved due to low winter demand and payment disputes. – Reuters

The United States is expected to boost coal exports to India after China imposed tariffs on energy imports from the U.S., five industry officials said, potentially eroding Australia and Russia’s market shares in the Indian market. – Reuters

Russia has offered to make its fifth-generation stealth fighter jet Sukhoi Su-57 in India for the Indian Air Force, a Russian and an Indian official said on Tuesday, as Moscow looks to boost defence ties with New Delhi. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke on Tuesday about how the United States can assist India in diversifying its energy sourcing through investments in U.S. nuclear technology, the White House said. – Reuters

U.S.-based chip toolmaker company Lam Research (LRCX.O), said it will invest over 100 billion rupees ($1.2 billion) in the next few years in India’s southern Karnataka state, the latest boost to the nation’s plans to bolster its semiconductor ecosystem. – Reuters

India wants more nuclear power, has pledged over $2 billion toward research and will change laws to boost investment to do it. The pledges were made by India’s finance minister earlier this month as part of a plan to expand electricity generation and reduce emissions. – Associated Press

Brahma Chellaney writes: As Trump seeks to build on his rapport with Modi to restore America’s fraying relationship with India, a shift away from the Biden policy of mollycoddling the Yunus regime could help ease Indian security concerns. If the U.S.-India strategic partnership is to advance a stable balance of power in Asia, the two powers must work in sync with one another in India’s own neighborhood to help build mutual trust. – The Hill

Kaush Arha writes: Trump and Modi are transformative leaders restructuring the political landscape of their respective nations and reshaping their nations’ global engagement. Unsurprisingly, they glimpse in each other a kindred spirit and wish to make fast the ties between the two great powers. For the good of the American and Indian people and for all who cherish freedom, the two leaders this week should seize the moment to lay the foundations of an enduring order. – National Interest

Europe

The head of the European Commission said U.S. President Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on European Union exports of steel and aluminum would result in countermeasures. – Wall Street Journal

Pope Francis on Tuesday harshly criticized President Trump’s policy of mass deportations and urged Catholics to reject anti-immigrant narratives in an unusually direct attack on the American administration. – New York Times

The mining company that owns the licence to Greenland’s Kvanefjeld deposit is hopeful that a new government will repeal a ban on uranium mining after next month’s election, potentially rejuvenating one of the world’s largest rare earth projects. – Reuters

A Russian SU-24MR military jet flew into Polish airspace in the Gdansk bay area of the Baltic Sea on Tuesday due to what Russia said was a navigation system failure, the Operational Command of the Polish armed forces said. – Reuters

If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said. – Politico

French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday urged “respect” for Palestinian Arabs and their neighboring Arab states, rejecting US President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza, which would see Gazans being relocated to neighboring countries while the US takes over the Strip to rehabilitate it. – Arutz Sheva

Anders Fogh Rasmussen writes: Europe’s response should be dollar-for-dollar retaliation, targeted at the U.S. industries and businesses where it will hurt the most. Mr. Trump respects only strength. I hope that the new U.S. administration doesn’t end an international order that has created more security and more prosperity for more people than any other in history. But hope is no strategy. Europe must be prepared or suffer the consequences. – Wall Street Journal

Carl Bildt and Anja Manuel write: A reflexive European reaction to Donald Trump’s return to the White House may be to retreat from engagement. That would be a mistake. Washington and Brussels surprised many by coordinating their approaches to trade controls on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They can surprise the world again by working together on key cutting-edge technologies to benefit both of their economies. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Eitvydas Bajarūnas writes: Effective responses must be tailored to evolving situations, enabling the alliance to defend its member states’ stability and sovereignty against attacks that blur the line between peace and conflict. Activating Article 5 in such contexts would grant NATO the authority to deploy all necessary measures, including military force, to counter and deter further aggression. It would remain a last resort, undertaken only when all other options have been exhausted, and its implementation would require the full agreement of all NATO members. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

If true, the case represents a dark escalation in Mr. Maduro’s efforts to crush any threats to his authoritarian rule — and the accusations arrive just as President Trump opens a new dialogue with the autocrat in hopes of deporting undocumented Venezuelans. – New York Times

Nations targeted by President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum decried the measures as unfair Tuesday and threatened to retaliate in a growing trade dispute that threatens to further roil economic markets and strain the United States’ relations with major allies. – New York Times

Canada, fulfilling a promise made to U.S. President Donald Trump, on Tuesday appointed a senior intelligence official to the new post of fentanyl czar, saying he would coordinate the fight against smuggling of the drug. – Reuters

The number of vessels that passed through the Panama Canal, the world’s second busiest waterway, fell to an average of 32.6 per day for a total of 1,011 ships in January, the first month-on-month decline in almost a year, according to a bulletin published on Tuesday by the canal’s administrating authority. – Reuters

The resignation of Colombia Defense Minister Ivan Velasquez from President Gustavo Petro’s cabinet is definitive, the ministry said in a social media post on Tuesday, as Velasquez joins the environment and interior ministers in exiting the government. – Reuters

Haiti’s children are increasingly caught in the crossfire of gang violence, forced to carry weapons, spy on police and rival gangs and run errands for gunmen, according to a report released Wednesday by Amnesty International. – Associated Press

Argentines support President Javier Milei’s quest to negotiate a free trade agreement with the US, but are split over competing with American firms and are very worried about Donald Trump’s looming tariffs. – Bloomberg

Latin Americans would broadly support the use of US military force to oust Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and take on transnational drug cartels, even as they remain largely skeptical of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The European Union pledged to mobilize 200 billion euros, equivalent to $206.15 billion, to invest in artificial intelligence as the bloc seeks to catch up with the U.S. and China in the race to train the most complex models. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration wants the U.S. to dominate the artificial-intelligence revolution and is warning American allies to get on board with its light-touch approach to tech regulation or risk being left out. – Wall Street Journal

DeepSeek may face more actions from national regulators in the future, Europe’s privacy watchdog said on Tuesday, underscoring the bloc’s concerns about the rising popularity of the cheap Chinese artificial intelligence startup. – Reuters

The United States joined Australia and Britain in targeting Russia-based Zservers service provider for its role in supporting the Lockbit ransomware attacks, the U.S. Department of Treasury said on Tuesday, citing national security concerns. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance told Europeans on Tuesday their “massive” regulations on artificial intelligence could strangle the technology, and rejected content moderation as “authoritarian censorship”. – Reuters

A refugee advocate caught up in an Italian political scandal over the recent release of an alleged war criminal was targeted using sophisticated spyware, according to an alert sent to him by iPhone maker Apple. – Reuters

Four Russian nationals, who were suspected of deploying a variant of Phobos ransomware to extort payments from people in Europe and beyond, were arrested last week, the pan-European police agency Europol said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Long War

The dead Islamic State fighter was sprawled out on the ridge, bloodstains darkening in the sun, as a line of heavily armed Somali soldiers snaked down the mountainside to a fortified cave — their camouflage uniforms marking a new front line in the fight against the global terrorist group. – Washington Post

Swedish police said on Tuesday they had apprehended one person in the Stockholm area on suspicion of preparing terrorist crimes in a case concerning violent Islamist extremism. – Reuters

Mosul’s Grand al-Nuri Mosque, known for its eight-century-old leaning minaret, destroyed by Islamic State militants in 2017, has been renovated in a boost for Iraq’s second city as it rebuilds after long years of war. – Reuters

Dalia Al-Aqidi writes: The impact of this movement is already visible. For the first time, divisions within the Taliban ranks have emerged, with ministers now advocating for reopening high schools. The Taliban has even agreed to allow Afghan girls to study in Pakistan — an achievement that two decades of American military incursions could not accomplish. Now is not the time for Mr. Trump to turn his back on the region. Instead, America would be better served by shifting from brute force and Washington diktats toward a sustainable Middle East strategy, one that prioritizes empowering efforts to combat extremism from within. – New York Sun