Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli military began a full withdrawal from a sprawling security zone within the central Gaza Strip as part of a cease-fire agreement with Hamas, Israeli and Palestinian officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas released three more hostages on Saturday under a three-week-old cease-fire deal that has become a test of wills between the militant group and Israel. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump this week called for the U.S. to take long-term control of the Gaza Strip and rebuild the devastated enclave while nearly two million Palestinians are moved elsewhere, at least temporarily. – Wall Street Journal

Arab governments have said they oppose President Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. In the enclave itself, sentiments are more complicated. Palestinians there, while recoiling at the idea of being displaced, also have to wrestle with difficult questions about their lives and their children amid destruction that will leave the enclave uninhabitable for years. – Wall Street Journal

The State Department has given Congress formal notification that it plans to move forward with sales of more than $8 billion in weapons to Israel, bypassing an informal review process that was underway in a House committee. – New York Times

President Trump on Sunday said he was losing patience with the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas after seeing footage of the Palestinian militant group release Israeli hostages over the weekend, whose appearance he compared to Holocaust survivors. – Reuters

An Israel delegation arrived in Qatar on Sunday for more Gaza truce talks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson said, as its military withdrew from an important crossing point in the enclave, as agreed under the truce with Hamas. – Reuters

Israeli victims of the Hamas attack that triggered the Gaza war will still work with the International Criminal Court even after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on the tribunal, a lawyer for victims and victims’ families said on Friday. – Reuters

The three latest hostages who were released from Gaza after 491 days of captivity are suffering from severe physical and mental deterioration, including malnutrition, decreased muscle mass, heart disorders, and prolonged infection, according to health officials quoted by Hebrew media on Sunday. – Times of Israel

Israeli fighter jets carried out several airstrikes in Lebanon on Sunday evening, including against a tunnel between Lebanon and Syria used by the Hezbollah terror group to smuggle arms, the Israel Defense Forces said. – Times of Israel

Three people have been killed by IDF fire in two separate incidents in central and southern Gaza on Sunday, according to Palestinian health officials. – Haaretz

David Mamet writes: The Biden administration and the Democrat Party tolerated anti-Israel and anti-Jewish rhetoric and violence. They funded Hamas through Iran, withheld mandated military aid to Israel, and refused to censure the International Criminal Court for indicting Mr. Netanyahu. President Trump is returning the American government to decency, the rule of law and common sense. I suggest that, in addition to restoring the Monroe Doctrine, the president negotiate with Poland to cede the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum to Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Shira Efron writes: Further, merely talking about expelling Palestinians from Gaza has created outrage among Israel’s Arab partners and risks further deterioration in the tense West Bank. Any grand vision for Mr. Netanyahu must recognize the boundaries of the possible and the moral, and remember this is not a conflict solved by money or simply because powerful countries say it should be. Otherwise, Israel will waste critical time in a dream palace, one that will only push real progress further away. – New York Times

Ksenia Svetlova writes: The US-India alliance, which includes key partners like Israel and the UAE, serves as a model for how democratic nations can collaborate to safeguard their strategic interests while promoting transparency and sovereignty.  The upcoming Trump-Modi meeting must enhance this strategic partnership, as it has the potential to significantly contribute to both regional and global security and prosperity. –  Jerusalem Post

Sander Gerber and Bassem Eid write: With the inauguration of President Donald Trump, 2025 marks a pivotal moment for change, both in America and the Middle East. It’s past time to dismantle the system funneling donations from well-meaning Western charity-givers to terrorism, violating U.S. and Israeli law. At the core of this issue are the Palestinian Authority’s Martyrs’ Fund and Prisoners’ Fund. The Martyrs’ Fund provides payments to the families of terrorists, while the Prisoners’ Fund, established in 2004, offers stipends to Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli jails. These programs perpetuate violence, sustained by international funding. – Washington Examiner

Seth Mandel writes: During the war, its employees had access to the hospitals where Hamas was holding hostages and between which Hamas fighters were moving freely. Despite this, the Red Cross denounced Israel’s attempts to clear those terrorists out of the medical complexes. The scenes from the hostage releases reinforce what we already know, and why Israel exists: “Never Again” is an empty slogan to everyone but the Jewish people. If a nation wants a future, it must secure that future for itself. – Commentary Magazine 

Seth Mandel writes: Now, were there occasionally a few people here and there who attended Gaza protests because they were genuinely concerned about the welfare of Palestinians? Sure, such people do exist (although I don’t know why they’d show up to a tentifada protest that is clearly just a terrorism pep rally). But this “protest” movement was born on Oct. 7, 2023, because it liked what it saw that day. We didn’t need more proof, but we have it anyway. – Commentary Magazine

Paul Bachow writes: Israel does not have the power to accomplish this by itself. The United States must lead in this effort and apply significant pressure to cause these changes. Achieving these changes will bring peace to the Middle East, a region that has rarely seen peace. – Jewish News Syndicate

Russia & Ukraine

In the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, the head of St. Petersburg’s prisons delivered a direct message to an elite unit of guards tasked with overseeing the influx of prisoners from the war: “Be cruel, don’t pity them.” – Wall Street Journal

Moscow is yet to receive a good offer to start talks on Ukraine, Russia’s deputy foreign minister said in remarks published on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Washington was progressing in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

Russian envoy to the United Nations, in remarks published on Sunday, said Russia was waiting for “appropriate signals” from Washington on contacts with Moscow, but he had few expectations for better ties with Washington’s delegation at the U.N. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for a quick settlement in Ukraine must not only stop the war but also ensure that there can no longer be any more Russian aggression, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview broadcast on Sunday. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military said on Sunday that it shot down 70 drones out of the 151 that Russia launched to attack the country overnight. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believed the United States was making progress in its talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, but declined to provide details about any communications he had had with Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Friday that its forces had taken control of the strategic coal-mining city of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine, but Ukraine’s military denied the city had been captured and reported heavy fighting in and around it. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump’s penchant for a deal. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he would probably meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy next week to discuss Ukraine’s war to repel Russian invaders. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed a new Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region and said that North Korean troops were fighting alongside Russian forces there. – Associated Press

The governor of Russia’s Pacific island region of Sakhalin has declared an emergency after a Chinese cargo ship ran aground off its southwest coast.There was no danger to the crew of the An Yang 2, which is carrying coal and heavy fuel oil, Gov. Valery Limarenko said in a post on Telegram on Sunday. Russia’s emergencies ministry said 20 crew were aboard. – Associated Press

Marc Champion writes: What should be crystal clear everyone involved, though, is that the worst thing the US and Europe could do right now would be to strengthen Putin’s hand as negotiations approach. That could be done by engaging in a fratricidal trade war that divides and weakens the West, cutting short aid to Ukraine or easing economic pressure on Russia in exchange for a pre-settlement ceasefire that Putin would — if past is any kind of prologue — have no intention of respecting. – Bloomberg

Syria

The scale of destruction in Jobar ranks among the heaviest across Syria, an enormous challenge for a new government that needs to rebuild the shattered country to ensure stability and bring refugees back. Estimates of the nationwide cost have run to at least $400 billion for an impoverished country mostly cut off from the world by a crippling patchwork of U.S. and European sanctions. – Wall Street Journal

Two months after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled, some of the only houses with round-the-clock electricity here are those that share a power grid with the notorious security agencies that once propped up his rule. – Washington Post

The head of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said on Saturday meetings he had with Syria’s new leaders in Damascus were a first step towards ending years of strained relations on chemical arms under Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been invited to visit Germany, his office said on Friday following a phone call with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. – Reuters

The long anticipated return home for residents of the Syrian town of Tel Rifaat, displaced since 2014, has collided with a painful reality — scars of war, streets lined with rubble and ruins standing in place of their homes. – Associated Press

Egypt

Egypt disapproves of the statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in U.S. media describing them as “misleading accusations”, the foreign ministry said late on Sunday. – Reuters

Egypt will host an emergency Arab summit on 27 February to discuss what it described as “serious” developments for Palestinians, according to a statement from the Egyptian foreign ministry on Sunday. – Reuters

Egypt said on Friday it had been in contact with Arab partners including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to firm up the region’s rejection of any displacement of Palestinians after U.S. President Donald Trump said they should go from Gaza. – Reuters

Egyptian and Jordanian officials have raised concerns that a large-scale displacement of Gaza’s Palestinians into their countries could lead to the establishment of terrorist strongholds along their borders with Israel. – Haaretz

Middle East & North Africa

President Donald Trump’s proposal to remove all Palestinians from Gaza and send them to nearby countries has stoked widespread anger in this small Arab monarchy, a longtime U.S. ally that is already home to millions of Palestinian refugees — and where experts say a new influx of displaced people would destabilize the country. – Washington Post

Libya’s security authorities recovered at least 28 bodies of migrants from a mass grave in the desert in southeast Libya, the country’s attorney general said on its Facebook page on Sunday. – Reuters

A historic shake-up of the Middle East is starting to draw international investors, warming to the prospects of relative peace and economic recovery after so much turmoil. – Reuters

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Sunday no one had the power to remove Gazans from their devastated territory, amid the Muslim world’s resounding rejection of US President Donald Trump’s plan to expel the Palestinians and take control of the Strip. – Times of Israel

Amine Ayoub writes: North Africa’s security landscape is deeply intertwined with Israel’s regional strategy. While some nations, like Morocco and Egypt, have embraced varying levels of security cooperation, others, such as Algeria and Libya, continue to resist collaboration. As geopolitical shifts continue, Israel’s role in the region will be shaped by counterterrorism efforts, defense partnerships, and broader security considerations. Ensuring stability in North Africa is not only a regional necessity but also a global imperative, with significant implications for Israeli security and beyond. – Jerusalem Post

Dennis Ross and Dana Stroul write: The door is now open for Arab leaders to move from a flat “no” on Trump’s Gaza proposal to “yes, but.” They should be clear on both the steps they will take and what they will require of the administration in order to take those steps. This means presenting Trump with political moves and practical measures on the ground that would make reconstruction and a “day after” approach to Gaza possible. – Washington Institute

China

Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, hoping to influence the tech executives who are heavily represented in President Trump’s orbit. – Wall Street Journal

China’s retaliatory tariffs on goods from the United States are due to come into effect Monday, escalating economic tensions between Beijing and Washington and dampening hopes that the two countries could strike a deal to avoid a damaging trade war. – Washington Post

China expressed regret on Saturday over Panama’s intention to leave Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, urging the Latin American nation to “make the right decision”. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping has accepted Russia’s invitation to attend the commemorations of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, TASS state news agency reported on Monday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump has paused imposing tariffs on small-value packages arriving from China, apparently to give federal agencies time to sort out how to process millions of such shipments that have come through the U.S. border every day without paying taxes. – Associated Press

Karishma Vaswani writes: It’s not happening fast enough, though. In the best case scenario, a damaged undersea cable is a minor inconvenience; in the worst case it causes an entire island internet blackout, the kind that happened in Tonga in the wake of the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai undersea volcano, which severed communications and relief efforts, plunging citizens into a communications vacuum. – Bloomberg

Francis de Beixedon writes: The bottom line is that Trump must avoid the temptation to pursue a wide-ranging grand bargain that attempts to totally reforge the trade and security relationship between the U.S. and China. China’s economy cannot be remade in a day to benefit the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party’s military buildup and internal centralization of power pose significant challenges to its credibility on matters of regional security. – The Hill

Paul Heer writes: In a Chinese echo of Sisson’s perspective, Wang Jisi—arguably the dean of China’s “America-watchers”—recently emphasized the need for Beijing and Washington to overcome strategic distrust in favor of “strategic consensus” on key global and bilateral issues. […] “Only when both sides abandon the zero-sum thinking of competition,” Wang said, “will China-U.S. relations see a brighter future.” Wang and Sisson show that there are strategic thinkers on both sides who have identified a path forward. It remains to be seen whether Washington and Beijing are willing and prepared to follow it. – National Interest

Simone McCarthy writes: “China has long been preparing less exposure to the US, diversifying in all ways, not just in terms of trading partners, investment, but also currencies and payment system,” Keyu Jin, associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics told CNN’s Fareed Zarakia during the World Economic Forum in Davos last month.“The tariffs will hurt both countries. But you’ve seen already a gradual kind of redirection of trade to other countries (from Chinese companies),” Jin said. China sees “Trump as somebody who they can negotiate with, that there’s room for negotiation,” she added. – CNN

Asia

Concerns are mounting in New Zealand as the Cook Islands’ Prime Minister travels to China this week to sign agreements without properly consulting with New Zealand, despite the two nations’ constitutional ties. – Reuters

When Surasak Rumnao, 31, left his home in Thailand’s rural Udon Thani province three years ago to go across the world to the southern Israeli town of Yesha for agriculture work, his family never imagined they would lose touch with him for over a year when he was kidnapped by Hamas militants in October 2023. – Reuters

Taiwan is interested in natural gas from Alaska and will continue to assess the feasibility of purchases, the economy ministry said on Monday, as the government looks to narrow the trade surplus with the United States and head off tariffs. – Reuters

Australia’s Global Lithium Resources (GL1.AX), is pressing the government to halt what it calls a takeover attempt by Chinese investors of its cornerstone asset ahead of a shareholder meeting this week. – Reuters

Australia’s trade minister said its steel and aluminium exports to the U.S. create “good paying American jobs” and are key to shared defence interests, as Canberra presses Washington for an exemption to President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed optimism on Sunday that his country could avoid higher U.S. tariffs, saying President Donald Trump had “recognised” Japan’s huge investment in the U.S. and the American jobs that it creates. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump that the two countries will leave foreign exchange-rate matters in the hands of their finance ministers. – Reuters

Taiwan has sent officials to Washington to discuss possible U.S. tariffs by President Donald Trump, and has made preparations should they be imposed, Economy Minister Kuo Jyh-huei said on Saturday. – Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said President Donald Trump supported the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, after Australia on Friday confirmed its first $500 million payment under the defense pact. – Reuters

Kaush Arha writes: President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba have a historic opportunity to enshrine a free and open Indo-Pacific in a collective military, energy, and economic architecture that transcends political cycles and preserves peace and prosperity in the most important corner of the world. […] Now, it is for President Trump—with Prime Minister Ishiba—to clad with iron a free and open Indo-Pacific through a lasting institutional framework that will make America and the region great for years to come. – National Interest

Africa

As President Trump dismantled the leading U.S. foreign aid agency in Washington, its staffers working in Africa were under attack. – Wall Street Journal

After a lightning offensive, Sudan’s military is close to regaining control of the country’s capital, Khartoum, for the first time since a rebel general plunged the East African nation into civil war nearly two years ago. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order halting all U.S. aid to South Africa and directing his administration to develop a plan for resettling White Afrikaners as refugees, citing what he called “government-sponsored race-based discrimination” against them. – Washington Post

Congo authorities will put at least 75 soldiers on trial on Monday for fleeing the advance of Rwanda-backed M23 rebels into the eastern province of South Kivu and for violence against civilians, including murder and looting, the military prosecutor’s office said on Sunday. – Reuters

Leaders at an unprecedented joint summit of Eastern and Southern African blocs aimed at defusing the crisis in Eastern Congo urged all parties to hold direct talks, including with Rwanda-backed rebels whose advance has fanned fears of a wider war. – Reuters

The worst could be yet to come in east Congo’s escalating crisis, U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk said on Friday, warning that abuses including rape and sexual slavery may increase. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to rehouse white South Africans as refugees fleeing persecution may not spur quite the rush he anticipates, as even right-wing white lobby groups want to “tackle the injustices” of Black majority rule on home soil. – Reuters

Insurgents killed 25 civilians and injured 13 others in an ambush of a military-escorted convoy near Mali’s northeastern city of Gao on Friday, the army said late on Saturday. – Reuters

North America

President Trump might be serious about annexing Canada because he is keen to control the country’s natural resources, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told business leaders Friday. – Wall Street Journal

For his second term in office, President Trump has pledged to crack down on migration and go after violent drug cartels, putting a renewed focus south of the border where he had also threatened to take back the Panama Canal and prepared to impose tariffs of up to 25% on imports from Mexico. – Wall Street Journal

In El Salvador, Rubio called an offer from the country’s president to lock up American criminals in a foreign prison—an idea first floated by Trump—an “unprecedented and extraordinary” show of friendship. – Wall Street Journal

Canada wants to deepen its economic ties with the EU and uphold global trading rules in the face of threatened U.S. tariffs, its trade minister Mary Ng told Reuters on Saturday. – Reuters

A Canadian task force said on Friday that malicious news articles originating on Chinese social media tried to disparage former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is running to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump has postponed a phone call with Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino due to last-minute changes in the U.S. leader’s agenda, Panama’s government said on Friday, amid tensions over U.S. threats to take over the Panama Canal. – Reuters

Sexual violence against children in Haiti has surged in the last year and their bodies have been turned into “battlegrounds,” UNICEF warned on Friday. – Reuters

Canada and the Philippines are in the final stages of negotiating a key defense pact that would allow their forces to hold larger military drills, said the Canadian ambassador to Manila while raising concerns over China’s “provocative and unlawful actions” in the region. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

World leaders and technology executives are convening in Paris on Monday to discuss how to safely embrace artificial intelligence at a time of mounting resistance to heavy-handed red tape that businesses say stifles innovation. – Reuters

Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor and China’s leading telecoms providers are integrating the AI model released by DeepSeek into their offerings, the latest Chinese companies looking to capitalize on the start-up’s breakthrough and attention. – Reuters

French prosecutors said on Friday they have opened an investigation into Elon Musk’s X social media platform over alleged algorithmic bias. – Reuters

Italy faced pressure on Friday to explain its relationship with Israeli spyware maker Paragon following reports that the company had cut ties with Rome over allegations that the government had used its technology to hack the phones of critics instead of criminals. – Reuters

Scammers used an artificial intelligence voice tool to impersonate Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto and his staff in an attempt to persuade some of the nation’s top businessmen to wire money overseas. – Bloomberg

Federal civilian agencies have been ordered to patch a vulnerability impacting Trimble Cityworks — a popular tool used by many governments to manage public infrastructure. – The Record

University of California students on Friday sued the federal Education Department to stop members of Elon Musk’s government technology team from accessing federal student financial aid databases, which house sensitive information belonging to more than 42 million Americans. – The Record

Nathan Leamer writes: Rather than accepting the piecemeal and potentially harmful regulations of the previous administration, Trump has ordered a full review of Biden-era AI policies while directing his senior officials to develop a comprehensive action plan by July. […] AI will be the foundation of economic and military power in the coming decades. By building a robust, interoperable infrastructure now, America can ensure it remains the world’s leading AI superpower while preventing strategic competitors like China from exploiting vulnerabilities in our technological base. – Washington Examiner