Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

For most of the year, a couple hundred Hamas militants have manned fighting positions in the tunnels under southern Gaza. But the walls are closing in. The U.S.-brokered cease-fire in October left them on the wrong side of the line dividing the parts of the enclave controlled by Hamas and Israel. Food and especially water are running low, Arab intelligence and Israeli military officials briefed on the fighters’ situation said. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the second phase of a U.S. plan to end the war in Gaza was close, but cautioned several key issues still needed to be resolved, including whether a multinational security force would be deployed. – Reuters

Negotiations on consolidating the U.S.-backed truce in the war in Gaza are at a “critical” moment, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said on Saturday. – Reuters

Israeli soldiers shot at three Palestinians who were throwing rocks at cars in the occupied West Bank on Sunday and killed one of them, the Israeli military said. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he would not retire from politics if he receives a pardon from the country’s president in his years-long corruption trial. – Reuters

Hamas is ready to discuss “freezing or storing” its arsenal of weapons as part of its ceasefire with Israel, a senior official said Sunday, offering a possible formula to resolve one of the thorniest issues in the U.S.-brokered agreement. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel and Hamas are “very shortly expected to move into the second phase of the ceasefire,” after Hamas returns the remains of the last hostage held in Gaza. – Associated Press

An international body tasked with governing the Gaza Strip under the next phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire is expected to be announced by the end of the year, an Arab official and a Western diplomat said Friday. – Associated Press

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for reforms of the Palestinian Authority in a phone call with its leader Mahmoud Abbas early Saturday, hours before taking off for Israel. – Agence France-Presse

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced skepticism about the notion that a multinational force meant to patrol Gaza could successfully disarm Hamas, though he vowed disarmament would occur while touting Israel’s strength. – Times of Israel 

Freed hostage Rom Braslavski was in Italy on Sunday, at the invitation of the country’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, addressing the annual “Atreju” conference of the Italian premier’s party, the right-wing Fratelli D’Italia, in Rome. – Times of Israel 

Turkey and Egypt accused Israel of daily breaches of the ceasefire in Gaza, with Ankara’s foreign minister saying that US President Donald Trump will have to intervene if Washington doesn’t want its truce to collapse. – Times of Israel 

Israeli and Qatari officials met in New York on Sunday, according to a report, in the first of a series of trilateral meetings set up by US envoy Steve Witkoff, who is looking to mend ties that were frayed by Israel’s botched September strike on Hamas offices in Qatar. – Times of Israel 

During a visit to the Gaza Strip on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said that the Yellow Line, demarcating where the Israeli military withdrew to under the terms of the ongoing ceasefire, is “a new border line.” – Times of Israel 

Around 60 Palestinians without entry permits crossed the separation barrier in the Lachish area on Saturday night and entered Israeli territory. – Jerusalem Post

Costa Rica will open a diplomatic-status office for trade and investment innovation in Jerusalem in the first quarter of 2026, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced after meeting Costa Rican Foreign Trade Minister Manuel Tovar on Saturday night. – Jerusalem Post

Fadi a-Dayeb, one of Gaza’s most affluent merchants, was abducted and held ransom by Hamas, according to a now-deleted Facebook post reviewed by KAN on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: That’s something we cannot do. Others may see the rebuilding of Gaza and the “peace” trophy in the Middle East as the most urgent items on the agenda. For Israel, however, the safeguarding of its borders and removing the Hamas threat, once and for all, is the overarching goal. Regardless of the pressure, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must defy his closest ally in Washington and insist that the second phase commences with Hamas disarming and no longer posing a threat to Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Zachary Faria writes: The result is that Hamas knows that every time it starts a war with Israel, it will have unending access to “civilian” aid that only stops when Israel blocks that aid, leading to global pressure from these aid groups, the U.N., and the foreign governments, who all serve as useful idiots for Gaza’s terrorist regime. This is why there will never be peace in Gaza, because the U.N. and these NGOs enable Hamas to continue its terrorist operations with ease. – Washington Examiner

Russia and Ukraine

When NATO foreign ministers gathered this week to deliberate on a U.S. plan to end the war in Ukraine, they had neither the plan in hand nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the room to represent the alliance’s biggest, most powerful member. Rubio skipped the meeting as the White House held talks with Russia and Ukraine that have kept European allies sidelined. – Washington Post

Radiation levels have not increased outside the Chernobyl power plant, the Ukrainian site of the world’s worst-ever nuclear disaster, even though the authorities have been unable to fix the damage from a Russian drone that punctured the protective shield at the complex in February, officials said on Sunday. – New York Times 

It was a clear attempt to project Russian power. Hours before meeting U.S. officials in Moscow this past week about their plan to end the war, President Vladimir V. Putin claimed that Russia’s forces had seized the strategic Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk after a monthslong fight. – New York Times 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s outgoing Ukraine envoy said a deal to end the Ukraine war was “really close” and depended on resolving just two major issues but the Kremlin said there had to be radical changes to some of the U.S. proposals. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Sunday welcomed the U.S. President Donald Trump’s new national security strategy and said it largely accorded with Russia’s own perceptions, the first time that Moscow has so fulsomely praised such a document from its former Cold War foe. – Reuters

Talks with U.S. representatives on a peace plan for Ukraine have been constructive but not easy, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday ahead of his planned consultations with European leaders in coming days. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that he had had a long and “substantive” phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. – Reuters

A large-scale Russian drone and missile attack damaged power facilities in eight Ukrainian regions, causing blackouts and forcing nuclear power plants to cut power output, officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Saturday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump on Sunday claimed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “isn’t ready” to sign off on a U.S-authored peace proposal aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. – Associated Press

The commander of sea-drone operations for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency says more complex strikes against Russian forces are expected next year, after Kyiv’s uncrewed fleet succeeded in curbing the movements of Russia’s once-dominant Black Sea navy. – Associated Press

Donald Trump Jr. criticized corruption in Ukraine and suggested Sunday that his father may walk away from the country if it doesn’t make peace with Russia. – Politico 

Editorial: If the war expands, it’s Europe that will be in Moscow’s crosshairs. This makes its leaders’ attempts to moralize about America’s actions even stranger. The E.U. is only just now gearing up to agree to a bloc-wide ban on imported Russian gas – starting in 2027. Meanwhile, European countries had been turning to India for their energy supply, glossing over the inconvenient truth that Russian crude oil flowed through many of its refineries. In the first three quarters of 2024, imports from these refineries grew by 20 percent. The U.S. president has a bad habit of treating allies less kindly than adversaries, but he also understands the brutal reality of how power is exercised. Talk is cheap, and Europeans are wealthy. They can do better. – Washington Post

Syria

A National Commission for Missing Persons established in May has been gathering evidence of enforced disappearances under Assad, but has yet to offer families any clues on the estimated 150,000 people who vanished in his notorious prisons. – Reuters

Syrians marked the first anniversary of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad and his iron-fisted rule on Monday, as the fractured nation struggles to find stability and recover after years of war. – Reuters

More than 3 million Syrians have returned home since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule a year ago but a decline in global funding could deter others, the U.N. refugee agency said on Monday. – Reuters

The Canadian government said on Friday that it has removed Syria from its list of foreign state supporters of terrorism and removed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that spearheaded the rebel alliance that helped oust President Bashar al-Assad, from its list of terrorist entities. – Reuters

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has accused Israel of exporting crises to other countries and “fighting ghosts,” amid persistent incursions and air strikes by Israeli forces into southern Syria. – CNN 

Aaron Y. Zelin and James Jeffrey write: As U.S. relations with the new Syria deepen in year two, Israel will need to clarify its own strategy there. Thus far, its military operations in Syria (including strikes in Damascus) have been incongruent with its political aims—namely, enhancing border security, preventing Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies from returning, and gaining access to Syrian airspace. Addressing this inconsistency and explaining its true objectives would serve both Israeli and regional interests. Regardless of strategic clarity, however, Israel is unlikely to collide with Turkey over their increasingly divergent Syria interests. In addition to safeguarding their relations with the United States, both countries tend to prefer the status quo, and both share security concerns regarding the risks posed by terrorism and Iranian proxies. – Washington Institute

Arabian Peninsula

One of the U.S.’s closest allies in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates, paid more than $20 million to secure the freedom of an Emirati prince kidnapped by al Qaeda’s West African affiliate, according to Western officials. – Wall Street Journal

Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said on Saturday he was hopeful the European Union would resolve companies’ concerns over its sustainability laws by the end of December. – Reuters

News of Washington’s approval of a future sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Saudi Arabia last month has reignited long-standing fears within Israel’s defense establishment over the fragility of its US-guaranteed qualitative military edge. – Times of Israel

A. Hellyer writes: The U.S.-Saudi relationship now rests on mutual but not entirely symmetrical needs. Washington needs Saudi capital, energy cooperation, and alignment against China. Riyadh needs American technology, weapons, and security architecture. Neither side possesses sufficient leverage to compel the other on issues outside this convergence zone. Normalization with Israel is not abandoned. It is simply removed as a gating requirement and placed on an indefinite timeline contingent on developments Washington cannot control. Nor can Washington continue to assume that shielding Israel diplomatically — at the U.N. Security Council or through continued military transfers — comes without strategic cost. The Gaza war has demonstrated that these choices directly constrain U.S. ability to build coalitions, stabilize the region, and advance its own security interests. – War on the Rocks

Korean Peninsula

U.S. President Donald Trump’s new global security roadmap has dropped any reference to denuclearising North Korea as a goal, fuelling speculation that Washington may be angling to boost the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough with Pyongyang in 2026. – Reuters

South Korea is preparing to relocate the presidential office back to the Blue House in a move aimed at erasing former leader Yoon Suk Yeol’s legacy a year after his failed bid to put the country under martial law triggered months of political instability. – Bloomberg

The new capabilities are part of a rapid modernization program there, prompted by aggressive Chinese tactics and territorial claims in the adjacent South China Sea. The world’s largest shipbuilder, South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), is the primary supplier of these new vessels, and the latest warship to enter Philippine service is a second HDF-3200 Hybrid frigate. – Defense News

South Asia

Russia is working to co-opt part of India’s booming tech sector to forge a technological alliance to counter the West and boost its standing with China, in a campaign led by a former U.S.-based deep-cover spy, documents show. – Washington Post

At least 25 people were killed when a fire tore through a crowded nightclub in India’s Goa state overnight, the state’s chief minister, Pramod Sawant, said Sunday. – Washington Post

Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged heavy fire along their border late on Friday, officials from both countries said, killing at least five people amid heightened tensions following failed peace talks last weekend. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered India uninterrupted fuel supplies on Friday, eliciting a cautious response even as he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to expand trade and defence ties between countries with decades-old ties. – Reuters

India’s aviation watchdog temporarily rolled back restrictions on airline crew duty hours, days after the previous order disrupted operations at major Indian airports as the country’s biggest airline, IndiGo, scrambled to restore normal services. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: Some relationships are less about the two in them than they are about other people. This is one of them. Neither country can supply what the other most needs; India doesn’t have the resources to support Russia’s shrinking economy, which in turn doesn’t have the supply chains that could fulfil our manufacturing dreams. But even if nothing is left in the relationship except for pride and pageantry, that’s still enough to make a point to China and the West. A plateau, however festooned it might be with red carpets and welcome banners, is still a plateau. And both Delhi and Moscow must know that they are nearing the edge of what their “special and privileged” partnership can actually provide. – Bloomberg 

Europe

For years, the U.S. government has published an annual National Security Strategy that lays out how Washington sees the world and its approach to dealing with looming threats, from China to Russia to drug-traffickers in Latin America. This week, the Trump administration’s version seemed to reserve its harshest tone for a new target: America’s closest allies in Europe. – Wall Street Journal

When NATO allies committed to meeting President Donald Trump’s demand that they spend 5 percent of their gross domestic products annually on defense, Trump hailed it as a “monumental win for the United States” that would reduce the burden on U.S. taxpayers of defending Europe. – Washington Post

In an address to commemorate Kristallnacht — the 1938 Nazi pogrom against Jews — German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier last month offered a solution for the resurgence of right-wing extremism: banning the nationalist, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. – Washington Post

Bucharest elected a liberal mayor in Sunday’s local election, partial results showed, giving Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan the upper hand in a fragile pro-European ruling coalition and handing a defeat to a hard-right contender tipped to win. – Reuters

Lithuania’s Vilnius airport resumed operations after balloons had forced it to close its airspace earlier, it said on Saturday, the latest in a series of interruptions of the Baltic nation’s air traffic in recent months. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron said he would travel to London on Monday to meet Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy as well as the British and German leaders, to discuss the situation in Ukraine and ongoing negotiations under U.S. mediation. – Reuters

Charles Kushner, the U.S. ambassador to France, requested permission to visit former French President Nicolas Sarkozy in jail during his recent brief imprisonment, according to the U.S. State Department and the Paris appeals court, which granted him permission to do so. – Reuters

Germany’s parliament approved a controversial new military service law on Friday that aims to boost Bundeswehr numbers and meet NATO targets as tensions with Russia spur calls for stronger defence capabilities across Europe. – Reuters

Sweden will phase out development aid to five countries in coming years and use the money to increase support for Ukraine, the government said on Friday. – Reuters

European industry is facing a “life or death” moment, says French President Emmanuel Macron, squeezed between an ultra-competitive China and a protectionist America — and Beijing should ride to its rescue with long overdue foreign investment. – Politico 

Elon Musk lashed out at the European Union on Saturday, calling for the economic and political bloc to be dismantled after regulators hit his social media platform, X, with a substantial fine. – New York Sun

Editorial: They’re also complaining about implausible allegations that Israel somehow rigged the public vote-by-phone that catapulted Ms. Raphael into second place after a middling rating from the professional jury. Talk about “election denial.” It goes to show there’s no limit to how credulous some people choose to be when given an opportunity to think something negative about Israel or Jews. Eurovision is supposed to be harmless fun, and for the most part it is, musical taste aside. How embarrassing for the Irish, Dutch, Spanish and Slovenian governments that they care more about broadcasting their antisemitism than broadcasting a popular music contest. – Wall Street Journal

Jonathan Turley writes: In 2020 Mr. Lammy stressed that jury trials were a bulwark against government abuse and a guarantor of justice, that they acted as “a filter for prejudice.” Now, as justice secretary, he finds jury trials to be too expensive and unnecessary. The chairman of the Criminal Bar Association, Riel Karmy-Jones, has said the anti-jury proposal sends “a wrecking ball” through the British system of justice. She is right. If Parliament doesn’t listen, we’ll see the U.K. regress closer to an earlier, more oppressive state in which citizens are subjects, not the source, of British justice. – Wall Street Journal

Nicholas Chkhaidze writes: By standing with these forces and investing in Georgia’s democratic future, the United States will reaffirm that it stands with its natural allies in the struggle for freedom. Doing so will not only secure Georgia’s place within the free world but also anchor American strategic influence in the South Caucasus, ensuring that the region remains part of a transatlantic order built on liberty, stability, and strength. It is crucial to show strength and not allow this small, yet pivotal democracy at Russia’s doorstep to fall into the anti-American, revisionist camp, since if Georgia falls, it will send a signal far beyond Tbilisi, from Kyiv to Taipei, that the United States is no longer able to defend its partners on several fronts, when they’re most needed. – National Interest

Marek Magierowski writes: There are few countries and even fewer leaders in Europe who can bridge this gap, consistently and simultaneously nurturing excellent ties with Washington, Berlin, and Brussels. Poland is one of them, having a staunchly pro-American president and an ardently pro-European prime minister. Regrettably, the profoundly partisan nature of internal politics doesn’t allow for Polish politicians to be equally pro-European and pro-American, a familiar pattern in the nineties across the political spectrum. On the contrary, the pro-Trump and anti-Trump tribes are now dominating the public discourse in Warsaw. Seemingly, and evoking a Middle East parallel, it is a rule of thumb: we never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. – National Interest

The Americas

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado, is about to make the political decision of a lifetime: whether to actually go to Oslo to receive the reward Wednesday. The Venezuelan opposition leader is weighing going to Norway to receive in person the prize, which was awarded for her role in challenging the leadership of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, whom the U.S. and her opposition movement accuse of stealing last year’s presidential election. – Wall Street Journal

Impatience grew in Honduras on Sunday as electoral officials failed to provide an update on the results of the November 30 national elections for over 48 hours, with the presidential race still far too close to call. – Reuters

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, said on Sunday he may not run for president in next year’s general election. – Reuters

The family of a Colombian man who they say was killed in a U.S. airstrike off Colombia’s coast has taken their case to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, seeking accountability for deadly U.S. attacks in recent months in the Caribbean and the Pacific, their lawyer said. – Reuters

Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado demonstrated Saturday in several cities worldwide to commemorate her Nobel Peace Prize win ahead of the prestigious award ceremony next week. – Associated Press

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Enter Mr. Kast, who promises an “emergency” government that will take on the surge in crime. He proposes to protect the country’s border using electronic surveillance and digital controls and to criminalize illegal entry. But the most important plank in his platform is economic. He wants to put an end to the excessive regulation of the Boric regime, cut taxes on labor, make Chile more attractive to local and foreign investors, and reduce government spending. A Chile growing at 5% a year would celebrate immigrants. At 2% they become scapegoats for everything that goes wrong. Ms. Jara has done what she can to move to the center. But in the most recent debate she came off as a true believer intent on destroying enemies of the revolution. If the polling is accurate, it may be that Chileans trust Mr. Kast more than a Communist to improve security and get the economy growing again. – Wall Street Journal

David Marcus writes: At last week’s cabinet meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Trump’s foreign policy as transformational, “because for the first time in a long time we have a president who basically puts America at the forefront of every decision we make in our relations with the world.” In Venezuela, the Department of War is indeed playing offense, as Trump promised, but the opponent isn’t really Maduro, it’s Putin, who may soon find out that another of his pariah allies is off the board forever. – Fox News

United States

The government says it will pause all asylum applications for Afghans, including those qualifying for Special Immigrant Visas. It will reopen cases approved under the Biden administration, potentially stripping residents and green card holders of their legal status—as many as 200,000 people, including the 120,000 the U.S. evacuated in the first airlift out of Kabul in August 2021. – Wall Street Journal

From her confinement in a remote detention center in Louisiana, Bruna Ferreira recounted all the ways she said she has tried to maintain a friendly relationship with the family of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. After all, Ferreira shares a child with Leavitt’s brother. – Washington Post

If you rolled past Bedrosian Park after the final bell rang at Waukegan High School on any given weekday this fall, you were likely to find Diego Rosales and his mop of unruly black hair, basketball in hand, permanently grinning and playing down to the level of local middle-schoolers. Until Oct. 6, when Rosales watched two dark SUVs come to an abrupt stop while he waited for the bus to school. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump’s escalating military threats against Venezuela have split some of his biggest boosters in South Florida — who are eager for regime change — from a wider group of “America First” Republicans who loathe foreign intervention. – Washington Post

President Donald Trump has entrusted only a handful of his closest advisers to tackle his most important foreign policy priorities from Russia to the Middle East. Even as their portfolio expands – now including a possible strike on Venezuela – the group remains small. – Politico 

Editorial: On Asia, the strategy evinces a clear understanding that the U.S. must remain economically predominant. The document correctly identifies Chinese economic coercion and Beijing’s attempts to distort global trade as threats. An emphasis on securing U.S. supply chains is valuable. The language on Taiwan is also adequately muscular and linked to securing access to trade routes in the South China Sea. Ultimately, there’s plenty to work with in this grab bag of ideas. But like its predecessors, this is less a strategy than a mood board. – Washington Post

David Ignatius writes: West Point students study Walzer because America has a tradition of valuing honor and lawful conduct in battle. But the Trump administration’s strange, undeclared war against Venezuelan drug smugglers reminds us that rules for armed conflict can become fuzzy — and how easy it is to make excuses for questionable actions. “In moral life, ignorance isn’t all that common; dishonesty is far more so,” Walzer writes. The Venezuela campaign has now killed 87 people and sunk 23 boats. A perverse benefit of this devastation is that it has brought a day of reckoning for Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon — and a reminder of why warriors need rules. – Washington Post

Defense

Top Democrats called on Sunday for the release of classified video of the U.S. military’s first operation targeting a boat in the Caribbean in early September, an attack that has faced heavy scrutiny in part for its follow-up strike that killed two survivors. – New York Times 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Saturday that he backs a September 2 decision to launch a second strike on a suspected drug boat in the Caribbean. “I fully support that strike,” Hegseth said at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California. “I would have made the same call myself.” – Reuters

After effectively scrapping their long-awaited long-range jammers for both air and ground platforms this summer, Army electronic warfare leaders outlined their new visions for 2026: a new aerial program and a rapid push for a new kind of ground-based EW, Brig. Gen. Kevin Chaney and his team told reporters. – Breaking Defense 

Replicator lives, top Pentagon officials said today, though under a new name and with more of a focus on fielding larger attack drones. Replicator was launched by Biden-era Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and aimed to acquire thousands of low-cost ‘attritable’ drones, particularly for the Pacific, within two years. – Breaking Defense 

The director of the Office of Management and Budget defended the Trump administration’s use of the budget reconciliation process to boost defense funds without also giving money to Democrat priorities, and left open the door to using the mechanism again in the future.  – Breaking Defense 

The topline for the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act is shaping up to be about $8 billion higher than the president’s budget, the House Armed Services Committee’s top Democrat told Breaking Defense today. – Breaking Defense 

The draft version of the compromise National Defense Authorization Act was released Sunday evening, and as first reported by Breaking Defense, it is fully equipped with more money for the Pentagon. – Breaking Defense 

Rick Landgraf writes: Together, these takeaways point to a national security strategy that fuses “America First” economic and immigration policy, an assertive hemispheric doctrine, and domestic political objectives into a single organizing framework. That said, it’s unclear how much this matters in practice. All the principles put forth in the strategy have been said before by the president and his inner circle. For both allies and adversaries, the shock is not only the specific policies, but the message that the United States now sees its security in a more personalized, inwardly focused, and narrower way than before. – War on the Rocks