Fdd's overnight brief

December 6, 2024

In The News

Israel

One of the first things Israel did when it invaded Gaza in October last year was carve a dirt road across the middle of the strip. It was then wide enough for two armored vehicles. Today, it is a sprawling 18-square-mile zone. – Wall Street Journal

Cyprus has taken delivery of an Israeli air defence system, local media reported on Thursday, as the east Mediterranean island taps new markets to upgrade its defence capabilities after the loss of key supplier Russia. – Reuters

An Israeli court on Thursday rejected a request from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit the number of days each week he’ll have to testify when he finally takes the the stand in his years-long corruption trial. – Associated Press

A Hamas official said Thursday that international mediators have resumed negotiating with the militant group and Israel over a ceasefire in Gaza, and that he was hopeful a deal to end the 14-month war was within reach. – Associated Press

Amnesty International’s Israel section rejected the findings of the global body’s Thursday report accusing the State of Israel of committing genocide during the war against Hamas in Gaza. – Jerusalem Post

AJ+, Qatari Al Jazeera’s western-facing outlet, has used a sophisticated network of artificial online profiles to systematically manipulate social media discourse and spread anti-Israel narratives, according to a report issued by the Combat Antisemitism Movement (CAM) and Cyabra, a leading social media analytics firm. – Jerusalem Post

The State Department maintained it’s continuing to find that allegations of Israel committing genocide in Gaza are unfounded as Amnesty International released its report on Thursday claiming there’s enough evidence that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians. – Jerusalem Post

An Israeli strike on Wednesday night in the southern Gaza Strip killed several Hamas operatives, including a top commander in the terror group’s internal security forces, the military said on Thursday. – Times of Israel

US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew said on Thursday that Hamas is responsible for the fact that no agreement for a hostage release has been reached yet, but also claimed that some of Israel’s actions distracted the public from that fact. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: Not one of the groups yelling genocide calls on Egypt to let women and children escape to safety by opening its border with Gaza. Uniquely in this conflict, they insist that civilians be penned in the war zone. They do so because they know there isn’t an Israeli genocide but rather unintended civilian casualties, which can be used against Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The United Nations lists Al Qaeda, but not Hamas, in its list of terrorists. Instead, as our Benny Avni reports, the UN yesterday mounted an exhibit on Gaza, portraying as victim several Hamas members. The exhibit cites “experts” who claim Israel is committing genocide. South Africa has taken that accusation to the International Court of Justice, citing the same partial quotes Amnesty uses. We can almost hear Lemkin roll over in his grave. – New York Sun

Editorial: The UN was founded on the principle of safeguarding peace and protecting human rights. But its treatment of Israel underscores how far it has strayed from these ideals. The June conference is a charade, a testament to the UN’s irrelevance in achieving peace in the Middle East. The organization has shown that it lacks both the will and the credibility to address the conflict. Israel, meanwhile, will continue to fight for its survival. – Jerusalem Post

Gol Kalev writes: Mr. Trump should offer Mr. Macron a clear choice: ICC or U.S. France needs America, and the president-elect should demand that in exchange for Washington’s support, Paris pledge not to collaborate with international lawfare efforts against Israel or the U.S. An unambiguous statement by Mr. Macron to that effect could help Mr. Trump extract similar ones from other European countries and Canada. That would disrupt the new ICC-led challenge to U.S. global leadership. – Wall Street Journal

Gary Willig writes: For Hamas, there is no higher value than killing Jews. Hatred is the guiding star of its entire movement. It would kill a thousand Arabs in order to kill one Jewish child, and will never stop until every last Jewish man, woman, and child is obliterated from the face of the Earth. This is the evil that UNRWA employs, joins and defends. This is the evil that the antisemitic mobs around the world cheer for. This is the evil that Western leaders in the US, UK, France, Canada, Australia, and more, seek to appease. Worse, they seek to protect and preserve this evil so that it can rise and kill again. – Arutz Sheva

Iran

Romanian authorities have arrested two men accused of stabbing an Iranian journalist here earlier this year in an attack that Western security officials described as part of a larger campaign of intimidation against critics of the Islamic republic. – Washington Post

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts on Friday to discuss the situation in Syria, the Iraqi state news agency said on Thursday. – Reuters

The foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, and Russia will meet in Doha on Saturday to discuss a lightning rebel advance in Syria, a Turkish diplomatic source said on Friday. – Reuters

Iran said Friday it conducted a successful space launch, the latest for its program the West alleges improves Tehran’s ballistic missile program. – Associated Press

Shortly before he was to be flogged and imprisoned for eight years, Mohammad Rasoulof fled Iran. – Associated Press

Farhad Rezaei writes: Time is of the essence. The regime in Tehran is dangerously close to producing its first nuclear warhead, and the West must avoid falling into its “talk-for-talk’s-sake” trap. Decisive and meaningful action is needed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Allowing the regime to acquire these weapons would enable it to intensify its destructive actions and expand its campaign of terrorism in the region and beyond. This must be prevented at all costs. – Jerusalem Post

Mordechai Kedar writes: Tehran moving into Yerevan to replace the Russian influence over Armenia has enabled the Iranian axis to stand strong against Western-imposed sanctions despite the defeats they suffered in Gaza and Lebanon. […] The time has come for Paris to stand firm against Tehran, rather than aiding and abetting Israel’s enemies in Iran and their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

A Russian man went on trial in Finland on Thursday on charges of committing war crimes while commanding a far-right paramilitary unit in eastern Ukraine a decade ago. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexander Khinshtein acting governor of southern Kursk region on Thursday, saying “crisis management” was needed in the area, which has been partly occupied by Ukrainian forces since August. – Reuters

Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, asked his supporters on Thursday to design “a people’s gravestone” for him as a symbol of his political struggle against the Kremlin. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview broadcast on Thursday, said the use of a hypersonic missile in the Ukraine war sought to make the West understand that Moscow was ready to use any means to ensure no “strategic defeat” would be inflicted on Moscow. – Reuters

Russia’s top military officer called his U.S. counterpart to give advance warning of Russia’s drills in the Mediterranean Sea, officials said Thursday, in what was a rare contact amid high tensions between Moscow and Washington. – Associated Press

A top Ukrainian official met with Vice President-elect JD Vance and members of President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team Thursday as Ukraine prepares for a major shift in US policy on its war with Russia, about to enter its fourth year. – Bloomberg

Amy Knight writes: Ukrainians are war-weary, and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s popularity is fading. But if Donald Trump manages to get Kyiv and Moscow to the bargaining table, he should bear in mind the serious problems Mr. Putin is facing, none of which can be solved by Russian nuclear escalation. […] For ordinary Russians, Mr. Putin’s nuclear swagger might not be enough to compensate for the exorbitant price of butter. – Wall Street Journal

Alexander J. Motyl writes: That is, they must have the military capacity to both stop Russia today — which they’re doing despite lukewarm Western support — and to deter Russia tomorrow, which they’ll be able to do if the U.S. and its allies continue to enhance their military capabilities. Geopolitics — as well as morality — require stopping Putin’s further expansion at all costs and under any circumstances. And that means, quite simply, that Ukraine’s survival is a precondition of the West’s survival. – The Hill

Hezbollah

Hezbollah has paid out more than $50 million in cash gifts to families affected by war with Israel, its leader Naim Qassem said on Thursday, as the Iran-backed group seeks to shore up its support base after a devastating conflict with Israel. – Reuters

An alarming lack of funding is casting doubts as to whether the Lebanese Armed Forces will be able to uphold the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, according to a Thursday N12 report. – Jerusalem Post

The IAF struck Hezbollah’s weapon-smuggling routes near the crossings at the Syrian-Lebanese border on Thursday night, the IDF announced on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

Syrian rebels stormed into the city of Hama on Thursday as government forces withdrew, bringing the rebels one step closer to the capital Damascus, the seat of power of President Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times

Doctor Mehdi Davut smiles as he describes his planned return to his homeland Syria for the first time in eight years to see how his aid association can help in Aleppo, a major city seized by rebels last week. – Reuters

There is an urgent need for immediate humanitarian access to all civilians in need in Syria and a return to a U.N.-facilitated political process to end the bloodshed, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday. – Reuters

Syria’s most powerful rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani urged Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani not to allow the country’s Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to intervene in Syria, in a video statement posted on Thursday. – Reuters

Thousands of people fled the central Syrian city of Homs overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitoring group and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces further south. – Reuters

George Monastiriakos writes: Which brings us to last week’s offensive. It took years for Assad to conquer Aleppo, and only after Iran and Russia intervened to help him. Now, the Turkish-backed coalition seems to have liberated the city and reached as far as Hama in less than four days. Even the brightest experts with the best contacts didn’t see such a decisive military maneuver coming nearly 14 years into the Syrian Civil War. Only time will tell where it goes from here. – The Hill

Turkey

A rapid advance by Syrian rebels in recent days is giving the NATO member Turkey more power to limit Russian and Iranian influence in the region, but also risks triggering new instability on Ankara’s doorstep. – Wall Street Journal

Turkey has closely cooperated and coordinated with regional counterparts since clashes began again in northern Syria last week, a spokesman for the defence ministry said on Thursday, adding stabilising measures were being taken. – Reuters

Turkey’s competition board said on Thursday that it has decided to terminate an investigation of Meta Platforms (META.O), regarding data-sharing between social media platforms Threads and Instagram. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The crew of Panama-flagged cargo ship MV ISA STAR have been rescued in the Red Sea after sending a distress signal, the EU’s Aspides naval mission said. – Reuters

Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Thursday, helped by investor confidence in a U.S. interest rate cut and a potential delay in OPEC+’s planned output increase. – Reuters

Growth in the United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector activity held steady in November, while improved demand conditions boosted growth in new business, a survey showed on Friday. – Reuters

Ghazi Ben Ahmed writes: The reality is that Tunisia has no alternative. Without international support, the country risks deeper economic instability, rising social unrest, and an inability to meet its financial obligations. The absence of reforms will only perpetuate the cycle of inefficiency and stagnation. A coordinated IMF-EU program offers the only viable path forward—one that not only stabilizes Tunisia’s finances but also unlocks the potential for long-term, inclusive growth. By seizing this opportunity, Tunisia can secure its economic future and restore hope for its people. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

The head of South Korea’s ruling party suggested the country’s president could move again to declare martial law, arguing for a swift suspension of power for the embattled Yoon Suk Yeol. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s special warfare commander said he will refuse to implement any new order for martial law, media reports quoted him as saying. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday spoke to his South Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul, welcomed the lifting of martial law and said he expected the democratic process to prevail in the country, according to a State Department readout. – Reuters

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was already grappling with controversies, including calls for his impeachment, before this week’s botched martial law declaration crushed his approval ratings to a record low 13%. – Reuters

China

China imposed sanctions on more than a dozen U.S. defense firms and several American defense industry executives on Thursday in retaliation for the Biden administration’s latest batch of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing. – New York Times

China’s President Xi Jinping stressed the need to enforce discipline and fight corruption in the military, as well as boost information warfare capabilities, state broadcaster CCTV said on Thursday. – Reuters

A Chinese fishing vessel is under the control of alleged pirates in Somalia’s waters in the semi-autonomous Puntland region, the European Union’s anti-piracy naval force said on Thursday. – Reuters

Orit Frenkel writes: In his first term, Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA, USMCA’s predecessor but ultimately negotiated a strong new agreement. Hopefully, he will once again walk back from the brink, and all three countries will revitalize and reaffirm the agreement that has become the economic glue, and fuel, for North America. – The Hill

South Asia

A Pakistani court on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, in a graft case, local TV ARY News said, a move that could lead to her rearrest two months after she was freed from jail on bail. – Reuters

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan was indicted on Thursday on charges of inciting attacks against the military, a case stemming from deadly anti-government rallies led by his party last year. – Reuters

India eased some restrictions imposed to combat pollution in its north on Thursday as air quality there improved, with smog giving way to blue skies and Delhi recording a “moderate” air quality index reading of 165. – Reuters

A special tribunal in Bangladesh on Thursday banned the publication of any speeches by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is in exile in India after being ousted in August following mass protests. – Associated Press

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized the country’s strong security ties with Israel to the upper house of Parliament on Thursday, underscoring that decisions regarding exports with potential military implications are made with national interest and strategic alliances in mind. – Jerusalem Post

Tanvi Madan writes: As a result, over the next few years, India will seek both greater alignment with the United States and greater autonomy for itself. But even as New Delhi seeks to make its own choices, given its deep strategic and economic links with Washington, India will have no choice but to grapple with those decisions made in the United States—a country that, with its skepticism of alliances, free trade, and immigrants, resembles India more than ever before. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

For Taiwan, an island democracy isolated and intimidated by its far larger rival regime in Beijing, a key to its fight for security and recognition lies in a handful of even smaller island democracies in the Pacific. – Wall Street Journal

Australian police said on Friday they were looking for two people suspected of deliberately starting a fire at a Melbourne synagogue that injured one and caused widespread damage. – Reuters

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te urged China on Friday to “unclench its fists” and not take any unilateral actions, saying ahead of expected Chinese war games around the island that Beijing would not win any respect for military drills. – Reuters

The armed forces of the Philippines, United States and Japan on Friday conducted a “maritime cooperative activity” within the Manila’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said. – Reuters

The Philippines’ foreign ministry said on Thursday it has filed a diplomatic protest against China over a Dec. 4 maritime incident in the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. – Reuters

Japan and the Philippines signed a 1.6 billion yen ($10.65 million) security assistance deal on Thursday to boost the Southeast Asian nation’s maritime security and surveillance abilities amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea. – Reuters

Mass protests in Georgia fueled by the governing party’s decision to suspend negotiations on joining the European Union entered a second week on Thursday, with police cracking down on the protesters with increasing force in an attempt to curb the demonstrations. – Associated Press

Former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed concern about political upheaval in South Korea undermining progress in bilateral relations. – Bloomberg

The Australian government has shortlisted German and Japanese shipbuilders for Australia’s Sea 3000 frigate project, as Korean and Spanish contenders fell by the wayside. – Defense News

Marc Champion writes: That’s why Georgian ambassadors are resigning their posts and the streets of cities across the country are filled night after night by young protesters, who see their hopes for the future slipping away. To dismiss these people as foreign tools or criminals as the government has done is the deepest and most cynical of insults. They are fighting to achieve what the ruling party says it also wants, but clearly does not. – Bloomberg

Europe

The collapse of France’s government is amplifying questions about whether the country’s divisive and at times impetuous leader, President Emmanuel Macron, is suited to resolve the country’s political crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Germany will delay its medium-term plan to reduce public debt to the European Commission until after snap elections in February, according to the country’s stability council, which coordinates federal and state finances. – Reuters

The U.S. voiced concern about potential foreign interference in Romania’s presidential election after the declassification of documents showing the country was a target of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during a period of three consecutive ballots. – Reuters

The European Union has ordered social media firm TikTok to freeze data linked to the Romanian elections, it said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters

A Swedish court on Thursday jailed three men for planting explosives outside an Israeli military technology firm in Gothenburg in June, the ruling said. – Agence France-Presse

The Western world is closing in on a new nuclear age, the third of its kind, because of malign activities carried out by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, the head of the British Armed Forces has said. – Breaking Defense

Lionel Laurent writes: The UK, which now looks eminently more stable than during its Brexit basket-case days, is about to come under huge pressure to choose between Europe or the open sea, as Winston Churchill put it. If Macron can’t bring France together and focus the country on fixing its own problems, Notre Dame’s glorious reopening may be all that remains of his legacy. – Bloomberg

Africa

Namibia’s President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah pledged “radical shifts” to fix the country’s high levels of poverty and unemployment, speaking on Thursday in her first press conference since winning last week’s election. – Reuters

Ghana’s two main presidential contenders staged rival rallies in the capital, Accra, on Thursday evening, courting voters in a final push ahead of the world’s second biggest cocoa producer’s legislative and presidential election set for Saturday. – Reuters

Public health officials in Africa urged caution Thursday as Congo’s health minister said the government was on alert over a mystery flu-like disease that in recent weeks killed dozens of people. – Associated Press

Eugene Robinson writes: The United States built a $100 million military base in Niger that was intended to be a headquarters for antiterrorism operations across the Sahel, the belt of Africa just south of the Sahara Desert. But following a 2023 coup that ousted Niger’s elected government, the newly installed military junta ordered the 1,000 U.S. troops at the new base to leave the country. […] Ultimately, it will be Nigerians, South Africans, Ethiopians, Angolans and the people of other African nations who decide the continent’s future. They will remember who was there beside them all along. And who was not. – Washington Post

The Americas

Mexico is seeking an agreement with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to ensure it does not receive deportees from third countries in case of large-scale deportations of migrants from the United States, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday. – Reuters

Paraguay canceled a low-level Chinese diplomat’s visa and ordered him to leave the country, Paraguay’s foreign ministry said on Thursday, after the envoy appeared to push lawmakers to reconsider Paraguay’s friendly relationship with Taiwan. – Reuters

A proposal by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for mass deportation of immigrants living illegally in the United States that may include Cubans is unrealistic and unfair, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen landed in Uruguay on Thursday seeking to finalize a long-delayed trade deal between the European Union and South America’s Mercosur bloc, even as France slammed the agreement as “unacceptable”. – Reuters

Antisemitism in Canada risks chasing Jewish doctors not only out of their field but also out of the country, according to multiple reports. – Algemeiner

León Krauze writes: Since there is likely no way to negotiate oneself out of a confrontation with Trump over migration, Mexico has to be ready. Sheinbaum’s administration must prioritize increased funding for COMAR and the INM, expand infrastructure to process refugee claims, and ensure that these agencies are led by experienced professionals. And beyond the question of logistics, refusing to prepare would be a moral failure. The region’s immigration crisis will only deepen in the next four years, with dire consequences for migrants and refugees within Mexico’s borders and beyond. – Washington Post

United States

Donald Trump said he would nominate former Georgia senator and Dollar General CEO David Perdue to be the U.S. ambassador to China, amid growing tensions with Beijing stemming from the president-elect’s threats to impose a suite of stiff tariffs. – Wall Street Journal

The United States will provide $12.5 million to Vietnam to enhance its maritime law enforcement capabilities and combat illegal fishing, the U.S. embassy in Hanoi said on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin no longer plans to travel to South Korea, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday, following South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched attempt this week to impose martial law. – Reuters

Editorial: At times Mr. Trump has signaled a similar turn this go round. “My retribution is going to be success,” he said during his debate against Mr. Biden. If he leaned into that message, it would do the country good. Whatever the case, though, Mr. Biden would be compounding his mistake with Hunter’s pardon if he offers similar pre-emptive immunity to all and sundry of his political allies. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

U.S. Federal Communications Commission Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel is proposing, that communications service providers be required to submit an annual certification attesting that they have a plan in place to protect against cyberattacks, the agency said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli technology startups are on track for a record year of mergers and acquisitions, according to Vintage Investment Partners, as wars in Gaza and Lebanon didn’t dent investor appetite. – Reuters

Russian state-sponsored hackers exploited the servers of Pakistani threat actors to target organizations in South Asia, according to a new report. – The Record

Defense

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed off on a classified strategy Monday for countering drone threats in an effort to unify the military’s approach to protecting its facilities and personnel from weaponized unmanned aerial systems. – Defense News

Defense technology firm Anduril Industries announced this week it will partner with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI to use the company’s artificial intelligence models to improve the U.S. military’s ability to protect its bases and personnel from drone attacks. – Defense News

NATO has been “looking at” overcoming Russian or Chinese GPS jamming by relaying satellite signals through ultra-high-flying aircraft, a NATO official told Breaking Defense. – Breaking Defense

James Stavridis writes: But given the importance of Diego Garcia and the archipelago’s legal status, the UK-Mauritius deal needs to go through. The Mauritians, who will be well compensated for the new military lease, are likely to be amenable hosts. As long as the Middle East is in turmoil and Iran remains a threat to global security, the US military needs to maintain its footprint on Diego Garcia. – Bloomberg