Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Trump's Middle East envoy in diplomatic push to help reach Gaza ceasefire before inauguration Hamas threatens to 'neutralize' hostages if Israel launches rescue operation Iran is sending regional fighters to Syria. Can they save Assad again? Iran dissident group says six members sentenced to death CEPA’s Ben Dubow: Russia’s weakness illuminated by Syrian collapse Syria’s civil war puts Israel in a bind: ‘devil we know’ or Islamist rebels Lebanon's Hezbollah aims to rebuild longer term despite Israeli blows, US intel says South Korea’s Defense Minister steps down over martial law decree North Korea-Russia treaty comes into force, KCNA says Taipei to host Shanghai delegation in rare high level visit French government falls after National Assembly approves no-confidence vote US senators vow action after briefing on Chinese Salt Typhoon telecom hackingIn The News
Israel
The Israeli military shed light Wednesday on the circumstances surrounding the deaths early this year of six male hostages who were found shot in a Gaza tunnel—and whose captors were found dead at their side. – Wall Street Journal
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has traveled to Qatar and Israel to kickstart the U.S. president-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters. – Reuters
The Israeli military said on Wednesday it had retrieved the body of Itay Svirsky, who was taken hostage on October 7, 2023, and then killed in Hamas captivity, according to a statement from the Israeli military. – Reuters
Hamas said it had information that Israel intended to carry out a hostage rescue operation similar to one conducted in Gaza’s Nuseirat camp in June and threatened to “neutralize” the captives if any such action took place, according to an internal statement seen by Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters
Israeli tanks pushed into northern parts of the Khan Younis area in the south of the Gaza Strip on Wednesday and Palestinian medics said further Israeli airstrikes had killed at least 47 people across the enclave. – Reuters
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, has sold all its shares in Israel’s Bezeq as it provides telecoms services to Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that Israel had pressured Hamas to the extent that a hostage deal with the Iranian-backed group might be possible. – Reuters
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, will meet with Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Israel has presented Hamas with an updated proposal for a deal to release some of the remaining 100 hostages and initiate a ceasefire in Gaza, two Israeli officials told Axios on Wednesday. – Arutz Sheva
Iran
Iranian prosecutors granted Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi a 21-day release from prison on medical grounds on Wednesday after an invasive surgery, her foundation said. – Wall Street Journal
Iran is scrambling to mobilize regional fighters to help prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has deployed members of Hezbollah and Iraq’s Shiite militias to Syria, soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post. They are awaiting orders to fight. – Washington Post
Six Iranian dissidents have been sentenced to death for charges ranging from belonging to an opposition group, collusion against the state and armed rebellion, according to a ruling seen by Reuters on Wednesday and a statement from the group. – Reuters
An earthquake measuring magnitude 5.7 struck Western Iran on Thursday, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) reported. – Reuters
An Iranian fighter jet crashed in the south of the country Wednesday, killing the two pilots, state media reported. – Associated Press
Kenneth R. Timmerman writes: In its four decades-long struggle against the U.S., the Islamic regime in Tehran has used all the elements of state power to kill Americans, infiltrate agents of influence into U.S. government agencies, and even attempt to assassinate a former and future president. It’s time the U.S. fought back — not with boots on the ground or violent subversion — but with the tools that make our republic great: censorship-free communications, and a clear moral stand in support of the freedom of the Iranian people against their Islamic dictators. The Iranian people have shown time and again through massive protest movements that they want to change the regime. It’s time to give them a little help from their friends. – The Hill
Patrick Clawson writes: Enforcing sanctions on Iran’s gasoline imports is more straightforward and less diplomatically fraught than sanctioning its oil exports, most of which go to small refineries in China. This gasoline is produced at foreign refineries that may be reluctant to incur U.S. penalties just for the sake of a relatively small customer like Iran. Moreover, the governments of the countries in question may not be eager not to cross Trump. The most active sources of oil products for Iran are the United Arab Emirates, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Pressing companies and officials in these jurisdictions could give Washington a particularly effective way to press Tehran. – Washington Institute
Russia & Ukraine
Ukrainian officials are holding high-level talks with the incoming Trump administration, seeking to narrow wide differences on achieving a settlement of Kyiv’s war with Russia even before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. – Wall Street Journal
Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the architect of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, called President Biden’s top military adviser last week and talked about how to manage escalation concerns between the two countries, according to defense and military officials. – New York Times
A Ukrainian drone has struck Grozny, the capital of Russia’s southern Chechnya region, and caused civilian casualties, state news agency RIA quoted Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian delegation met on Wednesday with senior representatives of President-elect Donald Trump, a source familiar with the meeting said, as Ukraine seeks support from the incoming team in its war to repel Russian invaders. – Reuters
Ukraine needs to get younger people into the military to succeed in the war being waged against it by Russia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his outgoing U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken are due to face off over the war in Ukraine on Thursday at an annual meeting of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Malta. – Reuters
Steven Pifer writes: To be sure, the war has proved to be an awful tragedy for Ukraine. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died. Ukrainians understandably have grown weary of the conflict. They face a difficult winter. Thus far, however, they have chosen to keep fighting. Should Kyiv decide to enter negotiations, Washington should support that decision and do what it can to help Ukraine secure the most favorable terms. But Washington should not press Kyiv to begin talks, especially when the Kremlin shows no sign of a good-faith negotiating approach. The decisions to enter negotiations and ultimately whether to agree to a settlement are, and should be, for Ukrainians to make. – The Hill
Emil Avdaliani writes: The widespread suspicion now, in Georgia and the West, is that the government’s shift foreshadows closer ties with Russia which instigated separatism in the country in 1990s, invaded Georgia in 2008 and has long occupied 20% of its territory in Abkhazia and South Ossetia […]Georgia could return to its path toward EU membership, or double down on its pivot to Eurasia. The country makes its own decisions, but much will also depend on the EU and how skillful it will be in staying engaged. A great deal has been achieved in terms of reform, the rule of law, and bilateral relations with the EU, and much is at risk. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Ben Dubow writes: The Aleppo offensive thus represents more than just another turn in Syria’s complex civil war. It demonstrates the accelerating erosion of Russia’s position as the dominant security actor across its former spheres of influence. Its security guarantees are increasingly seen as undeliverable, the sign of a country strong on rhetoric but weak in action. The question now is not whether Russia’s influence will diminish further, but which of its remaining allies will be the next to seek alternative security arrangements. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Syria
The surprising advance by opposition forces in Syria’s civil war poses a conundrum for Israel and the West: Victory by either side presents risks. – Wall Street Journal
Syrian rebel fighters redoubled their push to seize the central city of Hama on Wednesday as government forces carried out airstrikes on the front lines and in opposition-held areas, including one that killed a veteran Syrian photographer. – Washington Post
For months, his country was battered by escalating Israeli bombardment, while behind the scenes, the United States and Gulf countries courted him diplomatically. It was a secretive, two-pronged approach meant to pressure President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to abandon his most important regional alliance with Hezbollah and Iran. – New York Times
Russia said on Wednesday that it strongly backs the actions of the Syrian leadership to counter an offensive by what it said were terrorist groups receiving support, including drones and training, from outside the country. – Reuters
The leader of Syria’s most powerful insurgent group toured the seized city of Aleppo on Wednesday in a surprise visit — the first since the group captured large parts of the city over the weekend as fierce fighting intensifies in the government-led counter-offensive in northern Hama. – Associated Press
A-10 Warthog attack planes have been spotted flying over eastern Syria in recent days.And as Syrian rebel forces advance, posing the greatest threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in years, rumors have swirled online about the aircraft’s possible role in strikes against his allied forces. – Defense News
Lebanon
Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 4,047 people and wounded 16,638 others since Oct. 7, 2023, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said in a televised press conference on Wednesday. – Reuters
Lebanon’s Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a longterm threat to the U.S. and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated U.S. intelligence told Reuters. – Reuters
The IAF struck a launcher that was identified on Wednesday in Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. The IDF noted that the presence of the launcher violated the agreements between Israel and Lebanon and posed a threat to the State of Israel. – Arutz Sheva
Middle East & North Africa
A Turkish government proposal to end a decades-long conflict with Kurdish militants has put Kurdish rights back in the spotlight, at a time when Kurdish leaders say repression is rife and freedoms won more than a decade ago have eroded. – Reuters
Egypt will offer three or four military-affiliated companies on the stock exchange as a next step in the wide-ranging drive to sell state assets, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said. – Bloomberg
Egypt has laid out a new proposal on the table that includes a phased cessation of fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to the proposal, the Israeli military will withdraw from the Rafah crossing alongside a declaration for a temporary ceasefire lasting 60 days. – Arutz Sheva
Korean Peninsula
South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, announced on Thursday that he had accepted the resignation of his defense minister, the first member of Mr. Yoon’s cabinet to lose his job since the president’s short-lived declaration of martial law on Tuesday night stunned the country. – New York Times
Officials in the United States and Japan were scrambling to understand why the leader they’d both embraced had made such a shocking authoritarian move. – New York Times
South Korean opposition lawmakers said on Thursday they would vote this weekend to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over a botched attempt to impose martial law, while the defence minister blamed for advising the move resigned. – Reuters
South Korea’s former defence minister who resigned over President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched bid to impose martial law had ordered the deployment of troops to the parliament, the vice defence minister said on Thursday. – Reuters
South Korean prosecutors have opened an investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol, his interior minister, and the now-former defence minister over their roles in an attempt to impose martial law, Yonhap news agency reported on Thursday. – Reuters
The United States was not aware that South Korea’s president intended to declare martial law, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Reuters on Wednesday, adding that he anticipated speaking to his South Korean counterpart in the coming days. – Reuters
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Wednesday that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol “badly misjudged” his decision to declare martial law this week, and it had been seen as “deeply problematic” and “illegitimate.” – Reuters
The “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty” agreed by the leaders of North Korea and Russia in June came into force on Wednesday with the exchange of “ratification instruments” in Moscow, the North’s KCNA news agency reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Ellen Kim writes: South Korea has long been regarded as a shining example of democracy in Asia. The peaceful resolution of yesterday’s crisis showed once again the maturity and resilience of its democratic institutions. However, the looming prospect of another presidential impeachment highlights a troubling lack of political leadership and bipartisanship, as well as the deep political polarization entrenched within South Korea’s democracy. A confluence of these elements poses a significant risk to the country’s future stability and governance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
China
When Donald J. Trump fired the opening shots in a trade war during his first term, Chinese officials often took days to respond and Chinese businesses followed every threat with alarm. But this week, after the Biden administration broadened its restrictions on advanced technology that could be sent to China, Beijing announced sweeping retaliation in a single day. The country’s stock market investors mostly shrugged at the Biden administration’s action. – New York Times
Taiwan’s capital will host a rare high level Chinese delegation later this month when a deputy mayor of Shanghai visits for an annual city forum, a trip that will be happening at a time of heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait. – Reuters
Nepal has signed a framework agreement with China on the Belt and Road initiative, after an initial pact was signed seven years ago but no progress made since, paving the way for cooperation on projects, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
China’s zero-tariff access for Africa’s least developed countries kicked in this week, a senior Chinese diplomat said, just as U.S. President Joe Biden visits Angola. – Reuters
China is trying to set a “red line” for the incoming Trump administration and U.S. allies by stepping up military activities in the region, a senior Taiwan security official said, including likely war games this weekend around the island. – Reuters
South Asia
An internal investigation ordered by Pernod Ricard concluded that top executives at its India business violated the law by colluding with alcohol retailers in New Delhi, according to a document seen by Reuters, even as the French giant’s representatives denied wrongdoing in court and publicly. – Reuters
A gunman shot at a prominent Sikh politician outside the Golden Temple in northern India on Wednesday before police caught and arrested him, in a scare at the popular site that witnessed a bloody clash between Sikh militants and troops four decades ago. – Reuters
Afghanistan’s economy is showing modest signs of growth after two years of severe contraction, the World Bank said. – Associated Press
Sadanand Dhume writes: Shortly after Donald Trump’s election, Mr. Adani hailed him as “the embodiment of unbreakable tenacity, unshakeable grit, relentless determination and the courage to stay true to his beliefs.” Mr. Adani has pledged to invest $10 billion in the U.S. Whether this will come to pass is anybody’s guess. But Mr. Adani likely hopes Mr. Trump will look on him as kindly as the Indian prime minister does. – Wall Street Journal
Asia
A Malaysian royal commission of inquiry studying cases involving three disputed islets in the Singapore Strait has proposed a criminal probe against former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, state news agency Bernama reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te spoke by telephone with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson during Lai’s visit to the Pacific, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters on Thursday, a conversation likely to further infuriate Beijing over the trip. – Reuters
UNESCO recognized Japan’s ancient process of sake brewing as an “intangible cultural heritage” on Wednesday, which producers hope will boost global interest in the traditional rice wine that dates back centuries but has waned in popularity at home. – Reuters
Members of the Southeast Asian regional bloc ASEAN are planning to hold a ministerial meeting in Thailand later this month to discuss the crisis in member-nation Myanmar, Indonesia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Roy Soemirat told reporters on Thursday. – Reuters
Taiwan will not bow down to totalitarianism, President Lai Ching-te said on Thursday in the U.S. territory of Guam, calling Taiwan and the United States “brothers”. – Reuters
The leader of Georgia’s main opposition party has been detained by police in the capital Tbilisi after being knocked to the ground and falling unconscious, his party said, the most high-profile in a sweeping wave of arrests of senior opposition figures. – Reuters
Malaysia said on Thursday any attempt by the incoming Trump administration to impose tariffs on BRICS countries for trying to create a new currency or use alternatives to the dollar could cause global semiconductor supply chain disruptions. – Reuters
Hong Kong leader John Lee said on Thursday he had replaced two senior officials in an unexpected move that he said would maximise social and economic benefits and help the city “catch up” with other tourism destinations. – Reuters
The Pacific island nation of Nauru is in talks with Australia on a migration and economic deal, a Nauru official said on Wednesday, as the world’s third-smallest country also weighs offers from China. – Reuters
Chinese online retailer Temu has been told to suspend its operations in Vietnam after it failed to meet an end-November deadline for business registration in the Southeast Asian country, the Vietnamese trade ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry denounced on Wednesday criticism by Western ambassadors of the country’s human rights record, saying the diplomats’ comments amounted to interference in its judicial system. – Reuters
Twelve Vietnamese soldiers were killed in an apparently accidental explosion while in training in southern Vietnam, state media reported late on Wednesday. – Reuters
A major ethnic rebel group in Myanmar has announced a unilateral ceasefire in its conflict with the ruling military and called for a dialogue under Chinese auspices to help restore peace in the country’s northeast. – Associated Press
The Philippine Air Force (PAF) has received its third and final battery of Rafael’s Spyder self-propelled surface-to-air missile (SAM). – Janes
Europe
European Union countries are expected to increase their combined defense spending to 326 billion euros ($342.6 billion) this year, a development likely to boost sales among arms contractors. – Wall Street Journal
The government of President Emmanuel Macron collapsed Wednesday after the National Assembly voted for the first time in more than a half-century to oust a prime minister from office, a sign of the political gridlock that has paralyzed France and left the country’s public finances in limbo. – Wall Street Journal
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected to resign on Friday after far-right and leftist lawmakers voted to topple his government, plunging France into its second major political crisis in six months. – Reuters
Romania’s far-right presidential frontrunner said on Wednesday he will bar continued Ukrainian grain exports through Romania and further military aid to Kyiv if elected, and that Bucharest is not obliged to stick to NATO’s defence spending commitments. – Reuters
Documents declassified by Romania’s top security council on Wednesday said the country was a target of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” in a period of consecutive elections. – Reuters
Authorities in Austria are not planning to arrest Rene Benko in response to an Italian judge’s order that the Austrian property tycoon be brought into custody, a spokesman for public prosecutors in Innsbruck said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Italy has for the first time paid compensation to victims of Nazi war crimes, giving 800,000 euros ($840,000) to the heirs of a man killed in a 1944 civilian massacre in Tuscany, a lawyer for the heirs and the Italian Treasury said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Romanians vote in a presidential election runoff on Sunday that could see Calin Georgescu, a far-right critic of NATO, defeat pro-European centrist Elena Lasconi, an outcome that might isolate Romania in the West and erode its support for Ukraine. – Reuters
The surprise front-runner in Romania’s presidential election insisted to The Associated Press in an interview Wednesday that he is not pro-Russian — hours before Romania declassified intelligence alleging Moscow ran an online campaign to promote him to voters. – Associated Press
Italy’s Premier Giorgia Meloni met her Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán on Wednesday in Rome, where the two discussed the situation in the Middle East, their support for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine and their commitment to the eastern country’s reconstruction. – Associated Press
Romania’s pro-European parties signed a deal to form a coalition in an attempt to keep nationalist forces out of power ahead of a presidential election run-off on Sunday that has a Russia-friendly candidate as the front-runner. – Bloomberg
Africa
President Joe Biden on Wednesday announced that the United States would spend more than $560 million on projects connected to the Lobito Corridor, a trans-African railway that will help get vital minerals and other goods to a port where they can be shipped to the United States and other destinations. – Washington Post
Multilateral lender Climate Investment Funds will back a $500 million plan to help drought-prone Ethiopia restore degraded land, protect its forests and bolster food security, it said on Wednesday. – Reuters
A gang of armed men planted explosives along the Dansadau-Gusau road in northwest Nigeria’s Zamfara state, causing significant damage and casualties, a military spokesperson and witnesses said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Mozambique’s president cautioned that ongoing protests against disputed Oct. 9 elections are increasing the risk of delays to civil servants’ pay, as the unrest hits tax revenues. – Bloomberg
After four months and the sacking of a government delegation, the stalled South Sudan peace talks resumed Wednesday in Kenya, the latest effort to end the conflict that has long crippled the African country’s economy. – Associated Press
The Americas
South America’s Mercosur trade bloc will meet in Uruguay on Thursday with fresh signs the group could use the event to announce a long-delayed deal with the European Union after last-minute negotiations to get it over the line. – Reuters
Cuba said it was generating only enough electricity to cover about 1/6th of peak demand late on Wednesday, hours after its national grid collapsed leaving millions without power. – Reuters
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva officially recognized three more Indigenous territories on Wednesday, pushing to 13 the number of lands to which he has granted legal protection since his latest term began in early 2023. – Reuters
Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, increasingly a poster child for rightwing politics and free-markets, is hosting allies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro at a summit in Buenos Aires on Wednesday. – Reuters
The Bahamas’ legislature was forced to suspend its session on Wednesday after a heated debate about a police corruption scandal escalated, with one opposition lawmaker grabbing the symbolic parliamentary mace and throwing it out the window. – Reuters
Chile’s Congress gave its final approval to a bill that creates a Public Security Ministry, handing President Gabriel Boric a win as his government steps up efforts to combat crime. – Bloomberg
Two Americans were shot, including a US Army veteran left fighting for his life, after they were chased by armed men in Mexico — while local cops did nothing to help, according to one of them. – New York Post
United States
A gunman shot and wounded two children aged 5 and 6 at a California school on Wednesday before shooting himself dead in what investigators said appeared to be an attack directed at the school’s affiliation with the Seventh-Day Adventist Church. – Reuters
Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealth’s insurance unit, was killed on Wednesday morning outside a Midtown Manhattan hotel in what police described as a targeted attack by a gunman lying in wait for him. – Reuters
Iranian hackers targeted Donald Trump’s pick for head of the FBI, Kash Patel, sources revealed to CNN on Tuesday night. – Jerusalem Post
Cybersecurity
A large number of Americans’ metadata has been stolen in the sweeping cyberespionage campaign carried out by a Chinese hacking group dubbed “Salt Typhoon,” a senior U.S. official told journalists on Wednesday. – Reuters
U.S. government agencies held a classified briefing for all senators on Wednesday on China’s alleged efforts known as Salt Typhoon to burrow deep into American telecommunications companies and steal data about U.S. calls. – Reuters
Following an investigation into how a ransomware gang was cashing out extorted cryptocurrency, British law enforcement on Wednesday announced uncovering a sprawling Russian money laundering system used by transnational drug traffickers, cybercriminals, Moscow elites evading sanctions and even the Kremlin’s espionage operations. – The Record
Defense
The top U.S. military officer, Air Force General C.Q. Brown, spoke by phone with Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov last week, the U.S. military said on Wednesday, the first time Brown spoke with his Russian counterpart. – Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday strongly backed women serving in the military during an impassioned speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, in an apparent dig at President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, who has said he opposes women in combat roles. – Reuters
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is right to challenge NATO members to boost defence spending, Britain’s foreign minister told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters
Phone companies are denying the U.S. military’s requests for data about vulnerabilities in the American telecom system, according to a letter released Wednesday. – Reuters
President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday nominated Daniel Driscoll to be the next U.S. Army secretary, saying the veteran will be a “fearless and relentless fighter” for the service. – Defense News