Fdd's overnight brief

December 4, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Less than a week after a cease-fire went into effect between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, fighting between both sides has reignited, with each accusing the other of violating the fragile truce—testing its durability. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday welcomed President-elect Donald J. Trump’s demand that hostages taken in the Hamas-led attack on Israel be released from Gaza before his inauguration in January. – New York Times

Israel’s military said on Tuesday that it targeted vehicles in the Aqabah area of the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank, killing three Hamas members who it said were planning an imminent attack. – Reuters

Israel threatened on Tuesday to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, and said this time its attacks would go deeper and target the Lebanese state itself, after the deadliest day since the ceasefire was agreed last week. – Reuters

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Tuesday he expects parliament to hold its initial vote on a 2025 state budget delayed by wars in Gaza and Lebanon this Sunday. – Reuters

An Israeli court on Tuesday ordered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take the stand next week in his long-running corruption trial, ending a series of delays. – Associated Press

The UN General Assembly on Tuesday called on Israel to withdraw from the occupied Palestinian territories and pushed for the creation of a Palestinian state, convening an international conference in June to try to jumpstart a two-state solution. – Agence France-Presse

Medics and rights groups on Tuesday called for the immediate opening of a humanitarian corridor from Gaza to allow the urgent evacuation of patients to hospitals in east Jerusalem. – Agence France-Presse

Several IDF officers in Northern Command criticized the military on Tuesday for not using the ceasefire to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon and eliminate weapons caches. – Jerusalem Post

IDF troops of the 99th Division killed seven Hamas terrorists involved in the October 7 massacre, the military said on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s security establishment has raised concerns that Syrian rebels may seize strategic rebels in the Aleppo area after the rebel groups entered the city last week and forced President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to flee. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial:  Aid doesn’t reach those who need it because gun toting thugs confiscate it. Humanitarian goods are now Hamas’s top source of income and its main instrument of controlling the Strip’s population. […] As long as our aid ends up in Hamas’s hands, the terrorists have no incentive to end the war they started. Cut off this lifeline to terrorists. Add pressure on their regional enablers. Most crucially, stand by America’s true ally rather than nitpick its faults. A new sheriff is posting new rules. – New York Sun

Gil Troy writes: This way, Israel can ever so slowly start withdrawing and start lightening its grip, while controlling the Philadelphi corridor to protect smuggling, keeping the Netzarim crisscross corridor until stability is achieved, and never allow any Gazans to live within a kilometer of any Israeli villages ever again, or approach the border gate with impunity – as they did for years, step by step wearing down the zero-tolerance for infractions policy Israel needs on its borders to survive. Never again is there – now. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Iran Air on Tuesday resumed flights between Mashhad in the northeast of the country and Dammam in Saudi Arabia after a nine year hiatus, the Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA) reported, in a sign of improving relations between the Middle Eastern rivals. – Reuters

A sophisticated fuel oil smuggling network that some experts believe generates at least $1 billion a year for Iran and its proxies has flourished in Iraq since Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in 2022, five sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

Iran released a government critic and popular hip-hop artist who came to fame over his lyrics about the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, local media reported Tuesday. – Associated Press

The US sanctioned 35 entities and vessels Tuesday that it said play a critical role in the shadow fleet transporting illicit Iranian oil to foreign markets. – Bloomberg

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed doubts about new legislation imposing tougher penalties on women who flout mandatory hijab regulations. – Agence France-Presse

Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani on Tuesday made his first public appearance in Beirut since he was seriously wounded in the face and hands in the first of two waves of Israeli attacks involving exploding devices in mid-September. – Times of Israel

Russia & Ukraine

Seeking to frame robust support for Ukraine as “a good deal” that might appeal to President-elect Donald Trump, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Tuesday said any potential peace deal with Russia should not give U.S. adversaries reason to celebrate, as he outlined a suite of ideas intended to be attractive to the alliance skeptic once he’s back in the White House. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and senior Kremlin officials “intentionally and directly” authorized a program of coerced fostering and adoption of Ukrainian children during the war in Ukraine, according to a Yale University report that was released on Tuesday. – New York Times

Russia and the United States clashed at the United Nations on Tuesday, accusing each other of supporting terrorism during a Security Council meeting convened over a sudden escalation of fighting in Syria. – Reuters

The parliament in the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia on Tuesday voted against ratifying an investment agreement with Moscow which sparked protests last month leading to the removal of the region’s self-styled president. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Tuesday for major reinforcement of sectors in eastern Ukraine of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, where Russian forces have made consistent gains in recent months. – Reuters

An alleged Russian spy ring targeted Ukrainian soldiers at a U.S. military base in Germany who were believed to be training to use a crucial air defence system to defend against Russia’s invasion, British prosecutors said on Tuesday. – Reuters

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that NATO membership for Ukraine could be part of a potential peace deal with Russia, which could also include conceding some occupied Ukrainian territory. – Bloomberg

F. Andrew Wolf Jr. writes: It is a fool’s errand to test one’s hypothesis about which type of war one is fighting — proxy vs direct — given the awesome difference in magnitude, and thus destructive effect, if one is wrong in one’s perception — especially when one’s adversary is a nuclear power like Russia. – The Hil

Hezbollah

Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. – Washington Post

An Israeli airstrike on a car near Syria’s capital Damascus on Tuesday killed Salman Jumaa, a senior Hezbollah figure responsible for liaising with the Syrian army, a Lebanese security source told Reuters. – Reuters

Five weeks ago, Moshe Weinstein found the body of his son Omer and four farm workers killed by a Hezbollah rocket, their bodies lying in an apple orchard that he has cultivated for years. – Reuters

Lebanese families displaced in Iraq by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah have begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon following a recently brokered ceasefire. – Reuters

Zina Rakhamilova writes: Ultimately, the question isn’t just whether Israel should “finish the job” with Hezbollah but whether the international community will finally recognize the danger posed by Iran’s proxies and take meaningful steps to address the violence and threat that the Islamic Republic poses. Israel cannot – and should not – carry this burden alone. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

The timing appeared to be both calculated and opportunistic. As soon as a deal to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was signed last week, another conflict kicked off not far away in Syria. – New York Times

Hospitals have been ripped apart by airstrikes. Nearly 50,000 people have fled their homes, and tens of thousands lack running water. Civilians are being laid out in body bags on hospital floors after shells struck their neighborhoods. – New York Times

Syrian rebels advancing against government forces pushed close on Tuesday to the major city of Hama, rebels and a war monitor said, after their sudden capture of Aleppo last week rocked President Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

David Ignatius writes: The Assad regime had seemed to be recovering its balance over the past several years. But that stability was fragile, dependent on Russia, Iran and Hezbollah’s military muscle. Those props didn’t stop the rebels from seizing Aleppo, and Assad now faces a bloody assault to recapture the city. It’s sadly characteristic of the Middle East that as soon as one war ends, another starts. – Washington Post

Iraq

Iraq will not act as a mere spectator in Syria where it believes groups and sects are victims of ethnic cleansing, Iraq’s prime minister said on Tuesday, according to a readout from his office of a phone call to Turkey’s president. – Reuters

Iraq’s powerful Iran-aligned Kataeb Hezbollah armed group has called on Baghdad to send troops to Syria to support the Damascus government against a militant offensive. – Agence France-Presse

Michael Knights writes: The U.S. government has publicly audited CTS in the past and should undertake a detailed new investigation in the near future, focusing on reports that U.S. funds are being diverted to terrorist groups, other militias, and criminal networks. Under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, Congress mandated that the State Department, Defense Department, and director of national intelligence provide a report certifying that no PMF units received U.S. funding; this requirement should be implemented in future defense budgets as well. – Washington Institute

Turkey

A Turkish court has jailed pending trial nine protesters who disrupted President Tayyip Erdogan’s speech in Istanbul last week, accusing his government of continuing oil exports to Israel despite a publicised embargo. – Reuters

Turkish Airlines has resumed flights from Istanbul to Beirut after a more than two-month suspension prompted by conflict in the Middle East, Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Biden administration asked that Turkey restrain the actions of the rebel groups in Syria to which it is providing aid, KAN News reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. – Jerusalem Post

Michael Rubin writes: Trusting Turkey to prevent a resurgence of ISIS is like trusting Pakistan to stop the Taliban. The Syrian Kurds are the proverbial finger in the dike preventing a resurgence of terrorism across the region. The willingness by Biden’s team to betray allies and liberals unfortunately solidifies America’s new brand. It is not a good look, and it is one that will have severe ramifications for future coalition building. Kurds often quip they have no friends but the mountains. With the way Biden treats allies, America simply will have no friends. – Washington Examiner

Middle East & North Africa

King Charles and Keir Starmer welcomed Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, for a state visit to Britain on Tuesday that the prime minister hopes will help build on the Gulf state’s investment in the country. – Reuters

Algerian Minister of Religious Affairs Youcef Belmehdi insisted on Tuesday that the country protects freedom of worship following criticism from the United States. – Agence France-Presse

In Libya, a shortage of cash in the banking system has pushed many to turn to cards for payments after more than a decade of war and instability has hammered the country’s financial system. – Agence France-Presse

Korean Peninsula

The Biden administration breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in the face of overwhelming domestic opposition, backed down within hours from an emergency declaration of martial law. – Washington Post

The secretary general of South Korea’s National Assembly, Kim Min-ki, condemned the military on Wednesday morning for breaking into the legislature during President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief imposition of martial law, saying that nearly 300 troops had stormed the compound. – New York Times

South Korean stocks and the country’s currency fell on Wednesday morning after a tense night during which President Yoon Suk Yeol declared and then lifted martial law. – New York Times

South Korean lawmakers on Wednesday called for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law only to reverse the move hours later, triggering the biggest political crisis in decades in Asia’s fourth-largest economy. – Reuters

Editorial: Even if the immediate crisis in Seoul has passed, the political fallout will play out for some time. Lawmakers may seek to impeach Mr. Yoon, with uncertain consequences. South Koreans sacrificed to preserve their freedom against the North and in the 1980s to end strongman rule. Tuesday’s events suggest the culture of democracy has taken root, which is reassuring in one of America’s vital allies in the Asia-Pacific. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Fortunately, in this case, democracy proved more resilient than one man’s attempt to undermine it, and people power was again the force that sustained it. Anyone predicting the end of liberal democracy, particularly in countries with strong institutions and people who cherish their freedom, should take note. – Washington Post

Riccardo Villa writes: North Korea’s involvement could not only prompt a more direct South Korean involvement but may also accelerate decisions regarding intervention in various European capitals indirectly proving beneficial to Washington if one takes into consideration that the various fronts the U.S. is currently either directly militarily involved in or supporting through lethal aid or other donations is straining its resources. – The National Interest

China

China swiftly retaliated against the latest U.S. trade restrictions Tuesday, tightening controls on the export of key raw materials to the U.S. and cautioning Chinese companies against buying American chips. – Wall Street Journal

A deluge of cheap Chinese goods washing over the developing world is jacking up tensions between China and the Global South, complicating Beijing’s plans to build alliances as it confronts escalating trade tensions with the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

The coast guards of China and the Philippines gave conflicting versions on Wednesday of a maritime confrontation around a contested shoal in the South China Sea, the latest row in a longstanding dispute between the neighbours. – Reuters

China told the top U.N. court on Tuesday that existing U.N. treaties should provide the basis for its advisory opinion on states’ legal obligations to fight global warming and address the consequences of their historic contributions to it. – Reuters

Minxin Pei writes: The onslaught has already begun to fuel tensions with poorer countries that are striving to develop their own export industries. Such fissures may gladden the hearts of hardliners in Washington. But China’s inability to assume more of a global leadership role as the US pulls back is no cause for celebration. A world adrift will be a sad, dark and dangerous place. – Bloomberg

South Asia

A decade ago, Pakistan, cripplingly short of power, turned to Beijing to build more than a dozen coal, solar and hydroelectric power plants as part of China’s huge infrastructure push in the country. Now a series of policy mistakes by Islamabad means that Pakistan has enough electricity and more—but, due to the huge debt owed to China, few can afford it. – Wall Street Journal

India and China will consider “other aspects” of their bilateral ties in a calibrated manner now that they have completed pulling back their troops from the last two face-off points on their Himalayan border, India’s foreign minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Tuesday said her government is negotiating with neighboring Myanmar for the return of four fishermen captured by Myanmar’s navy for trespassing. – Associated Press

India is prepared for a compromising approach while engaging with the incoming administration of Donald Trump to maintain its ties with the US, the South Asian nation’s foreign minister said. – Bloomberg

Asia

A Vietnamese court upheld a real estate tycoon’s death sentence for mass-scale embezzlement Tuesday, increasing pressure on the business executive to return billions of dollars in embezzled funds that judges said she could repay to avoid death. – Washington Post

Georgia’s public ombudsman accused police on Tuesday of inflicting torture on people arrested during six days of big street protests against the government’s decision to suspend talks on joining the European Union. – Reuters

Taiwan’s top China policymaker on Wednesday said Chinese military threats would only drive the two sides further apart, as state media in the island’s giant neighbour warned of a strong response to a U.S. visit by Taiwan’s president. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te arrived in Tuvalu on Wednesday, a Tuvalu official said, reinforcing ties with the remote Pacific Island nation on the frontline of climate change. – Reuters

Singapore and Australia agreed on Tuesday to seek opportunities for increased access to their respective defence facilities, including more frequent Australian visits to the city-state’s air force and navy bases. – Reuters

Indonesia is optimistic an agreement can be reached on the repatriation to Australia of the remaining five members of the ‘Bali Nine’ drug ring, the senior minister on legal affairs Yusril Ihza Mahendra said. – Reuters

Japan’s military said it dispatched a surveillance plane and a navy ship Tuesday after spotting a Russian submarine off the coast of a southwestern island near Taiwan. – Associated Press

New Zealand’s top soldier said he’s concerned about China’s increasing presence in the South Pacific and warned that the nation’s armed forces need to be ready for any eventuality. – Bloomberg

Beka Chedia writes: Meanwhile, it continues to describe any action or threat from the West as minor and insists it will have no real effect. At this stage, the great mass of Georgians are pro-European and wish their country to have warm relations with the EU which they see as the promise of a better future. One thing they absolutely do not want is to be dragged back, kicking and screaming, into the darkness of so-called Russian world. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Europe

Anti-immigrant leader Marine Le Pen is engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken with the French government and a multitude of global investors who finance the country’s sizable debt load. – Wall Street Journal

France’s prime minister, Michel Barnier, is facing a no-confidence vote that is very likely to topple him and his cabinet, leaving the country without a functioning government or a budget as it enters the new year. – New York Times

Romania’s hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) party wants to be part of a coalition government, its leader said on Tuesday, as the nation eyes a presidential run-off vote that will decide who appoints the prime minister. – Reuters

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has postponed his scheduled visit to South Korea this week, his spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

A number of NATO members are waiting for the new U.S. administration to take office before making up their minds on Ukraine’s request for an invitation to join the U.S.-led transatlantic alliance, Latvia’s foreign minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iceland’s president has asked Social Democratic party leader Kristrun Frostadottir to form a new coalition government after her party finished first in Saturday’s parliamentary election, the president’s office said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters

Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Tuesday he plans to lead the government into the parliamentary election due in September of 2025. – Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron called on French lawmakers to set aside their personal ambition and reject a vote that would topple the government and throw the country into political turmoil. – Bloomberg

A pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel group in Belgium reportedly filed a complaint to the Belgian government against Israel’s new military attaché in Brussels, accusing him of war crimes. – Times of Israel

Andreas Kluth writes: The orderly, multilateral, lawful and moral world that Merkel desired is unraveling into anarchy. The things she tried to hold together are falling apart. And still, no regrets. […] So do we all. In the end, Lord Acton’s law of power applied even to Merkel. She was good for a time; and now it’s good that she’s gone. – Bloomberg

Africa

In a year when election upsets have changed southern Africa’s political landscape, Namibia’s governing party has bucked the trend, winning the mineral-rich country’s general election, the electoral commission there said on Tuesday. – New York Times

Fighting resumed in eastern Congo on Monday, again violating a ceasefire, the M23 rebel group and Congolese army said, casting doubt on whether the M23 group will cease its offensive after the withdrawal of Rwandan troops. – Reuters

Sudan’s famine-stricken Zamzam displacement camp has been struck by shelling from the Rapid Support Forces, volunteers and medical aid agency MSF said, as the paramilitary group seeks to tighten control of the Darfur region in the country’s war. – Reuters

Biden is using his third and final day in Angola to showcase the Lobito Corridor railway, where the U.S. and key allies are investing heavily to refurbish 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) of train lines in Zambia, Congo and Angola. – Associated Press

Ken Opalo writes: Notwithstanding the expected unpredictability of the Trump administration, it should still be possible for African countries to deepen trade and investment ties with the United States to the benefit of their economies. That, in and of itself, would be a significant improvement for African-U.S. relations. – Foreign Affairs

Mvemba Phezo Dizolele writes: As Biden visits Angola and engages with the leadership, the Angolans will be watching whether he raises this disparity and related human rights abuses and civic rights infringements. […] The success of this engagement will depend on the U.S. commitment to center these bilateral relations on the Angolan people, not João Lourenço, MPLA, or the government. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Americas

In his first public comments about his dinner last week with President-elect Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he addressed trade issues related to steel, aluminum, energy and softwood. – Wall Street Journal

The likely next president of Brazil’s ruling Workers Party (PT)says the party has to reconnect with its rank and file and the new working class if it wants to overcome recent setbacks and remain relevant in Brazilian politics. – Reuters

It’s been three years since Douarleyka Velásquez abandoned her career in human resources. Her new job is not what she had planned for, but still feels rewarding. As a cleaning supervisor at a migrant shelter in Colombia, she gets to comfort Venezuelans who, just like herself, fled their homes hoping for a better life. – Associated Press

The top United Nations human rights watchdog on Tuesday ordered Venezuela to avoid destroying tally sheets and other electoral material as it investigates allegations that President Nicolás Maduro stole this summer’s election. – Associated Press

Non-governmental organizations monitoring Cuban prisons demanded an investigation Tuesday into the death of a man imprisoned since 2021 after being arrested for participating in historic protests against shortages and blackouts. – Associated Press

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado urged Brazil to throw its weight behind her ally Edmundo González as the nation’s legal president-elect. – Bloomberg

United States

The U.S. military carried out a strike in self defense against weapon systems in eastern Syria, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, adding it was unrelated to the ongoing rebel advances in the country. – Reuters

U.S. conservative media personality Tucker Carlson said on Wednesday that he was back in Russia to interview Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. – Reuters

The top Democrat on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee will introduce legislation on Tuesday that would sanction leaders on both sides of Sudan’s civil war and prohibit the sale of American weapons to countries fueling the conflict, according to a summary of the bill seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Jill Biden departed Tuesday on her final solo foreign trip as first lady, a six-day, four-country jaunt through Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that wraps with her and President-elect Donald Trump joining other dignitaries in Paris to celebrate the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral. – Associated Press

A California man has been charged with shipping weapons and ammunition to North Korea and told investigators they were to be used for a surprise attack on South Korea, authorities said Tuesday. – Associated Press

A US Secret Service agent is under investigation after firing their gun while on patrol near Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s home in Washington. – Bloomberg

The first priority for the Trump administration will be the release of the hostages immediately, with no further delay, President-elect Donald Trump’s newly-appointed Middle East Advisor, Massad Boulos, told French paper Le Point in an exclusive interview on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Bret Stephens writes: Trump “is going to turn the Oval Office into eBay,” he predicts. It will be the Democrats’ challenge to illuminate the fact. The trick in both cases is not to undermine your own side as you try to defeat the other. “I think Democrats prefer losing and being morally right to winning,” he says. “Me, I’m not into moral victory speeches. I’m into winning.” – New York Times

Brahma Chellaney writes: China has more than doubled its nuclear-weapons arsenal since 2020 and is expanding its conventional forces faster than any other country has since World War II. It is using its growing might to supplant the U.S. as the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific, a region that will shape the next world order. Biden’s troubled legacy has also contributed to an increasing line of countries seeking to join the BRICS grouping, the world’s first major non-U.S. international initiative that represents a search for a post-American world. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

NATO will step up intelligence sharing and improve the protection of critical infrastructure in the face of “hostile” acts of sabotage against allies by Russia and China, NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Australia’s competition watchdog said there was a need to revisit efforts to ensure greater choice for internet users, citing Google’s dominant search engine market share and its competitors’ failure to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom. – Reuters

Federal authorities on Tuesday urged telecommunication companies to boost network security following a sprawling Chinese hacking campaign that gave officials in Beijing access to private texts and phone conversations of an unknown number of Americans. – Associated Press

In an era where personal data is increasingly commodified, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is attempting to regulate the sprawling industry of data brokers. – CyberScoop

French and Dutch law enforcement have dismantled a “sophisticated” encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol announced in a statement on Tuesday. – The Record

Defense

The NATO alliance has begun planning for its own fleet of unmanned boats meant to help protect critical undersea infrastructure across the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. – Defense News

Northrop Grumman announced Tuesday that it has handed over mission operations and completed activation of Space Norway’s Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM) constellation, expanding access to satellite communications in the High North for both the U.S. Space Force and Norway. – DefenseScoop

In an exclusive interview Tuesday, Department of Defense acting Chief Information Officer Leslie Beavers briefed DefenseScoop on this unfolding pursuit — and the overarching aims for expanding it to enable the U.S. military, Canada and their other closest international partners to work more seamlessly and securely together on combined operations. – DefenseScoop