Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President-elect Donald J. Trump on Monday demanded that the hostages taken in the Hamas-led attack on Israel be released from Gaza before his inauguration in January, or there will be “hell to pay” in the Middle East for those responsible. – New York Times

Omer Neutra, an American Israeli dual citizen who fought in the Israeli military and was thought to have been taken hostage by Hamas and held in the Gaza Strip, was in fact killed on the day of the Hamas-led attack, the military said on Monday. – New York Times

The United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees has said it is suspending aid deliveries through the main crossing into Gaza because of lawlessness and violence, accusing Israel of failing to ensure safe conditions for aid workers to provide humanitarian assistance. – New York Times

The Israeli military has been expanding its presence in central Gaza in recent months, fortifying military bases and demolishing Palestinian buildings, according to Israeli officials and satellite images, a move that suggests that it may be preparing to exert long-term control over the area. – New York Times

Hamas said on Monday that 33 hostages in Gaza had been killed during the almost 14-month-old war between the Palestinian militant group and Israel in the enclave, without giving their nationalities. – Reuters

Israeli forces bombarded houses in overnight attacks in the northern Gaza Strip, including one airstrike that killed at least 15 people in a home sheltering displaced people in the town of Beit Lahiya, Palestinian medics said on Monday. – Reuters

Israeli military strikes killed at least 12 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, most of them in the town of Beit Lahiya on the northern edge, medics said, as the army issued new evacuation orders in the south of the tiny enclave. – Reuters

Palestinian officials say Fatah and Hamas are closing in on an agreement to appoint a committee of politically independent technocrats to administer the Gaza Strip after the war. It would effectively end Hamas’ rule and could help advance ceasefire talks with Israel. – Associated Press

The Israel Ministry of Defense’s Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) announced Tuesday that it has completed several contracts with Elbit Systems totaling approximately $40 million, a Defense Ministry statement confirmed. – Arutz Sheva

Newly appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz welcomed Argentina’s Defense Minister Dr. Luis Alfonso Petri to Israel for an official visit aiming to deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

The US Treasury and State Department said in a joint statement, “The United States welcomes the Government of Israel’s decision to approve a one-year extension of its indemnification for Israeli banks, which underpins correspondent banking relationships with Palestinian counterparts. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: The terror group on Saturday released a propaganda video of 20-year-old Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander. The Israel Defense Forces said Monday it has confirmed that another Israeli-American, 21-year-old Cpt. Omer Neutra, was killed in the Oct. 7 massacre; his body remains in Gaza. Three Americans are still believed to be alive in Gaza’s dungeons: Mr. Alexander, Sagui Dekel-Chen and Keith Siegel. Hamas is the source of their suffering. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The Post’s Hannah Sarisohn reported that Adi Alexander told the attendees of the Sunday rally that “the world is watching. To everyone listening – friends, neighbors, Americans, and Israelis – please amplify our voices and call on your leaders to secure a deal. Call on them to act now. We cannot afford to wait,” he said as supporters chanted, “You are not alone!” With the US’s deep investment in securing all of the hostages’ release, Israel indeed knows that it’s not alone. – Jerusalem Post

Maurice Hirsch writes: Given the circumstances, Jerusalem must act. Since it is totally unacceptable that Jerusalem continue funding the PA-PLO-ICC Jew-hunt, Jerusalem must inform the PA that until it waives its status in the UN and withdraws from the ICC, both fundamental breaches of the Oslo Accords, it will not see another agora. Palestinian malfeasance must have consequences. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: Meanwhile, Lebanon was created as scarcely more than a puffed-up French territory designed to perpetuate ethnic friction and factionalism—mission accomplished. The Mecca-born Faisal who tried to declare himself king of Syria was from the Hashemite clan, who today rule the state of Jordan while the House of Saud tends to Mecca. Faisal had to settle for being king of Iraq. Through it all, those troublesome Jews reestablished state sovereignty over their homeland of 3,000 years and counting. In today’s Middle East, those deep roots sure do come in handy. – Commentary Magazine

Russia & Ukraine

The Biden administration is engaged in an 11th-hour scramble to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars in additional weaponry, a massive effort that is generating concerns internally about its potential to erode U.S. stockpiles and sap resources from other flash points, officials said. – Washington Post

Ukraine on Tuesday blasted an agreement struck 30 years ago under which it relinquished nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances that never materialised, as it makes a concerted push for an invitation to join the NATO alliance. – Reuters

The United States will send Ukraine $725 million of missiles, ammunition, anti-personnel mines and other weapons, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, as President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration seeks to bolster Kyiv in its war with Russian invaders before leaving office in January. – Reuters

NATO is highly unlikely to heed Ukraine’s call for a membership invitation at a meeting on Tuesday, according to diplomats, dashing Kyiv’s hopes of a political boost as it struggles on the battlefield and awaits Donald Trump’s return to the White House. – Reuters

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, will sign a landmark security pact on Friday that reflects global geopolitical changes, Russian state news agency RIA said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.S. and Ukrainian defense chiefs on Monday discussed Russia’s use of new ballistic missiles, preparations for the next meeting of arms donors and plans for Washington’s military aid next year, both sides said. – Reuters

Russia’s advances on Ukraine last month amounted to the size of Singapore and was its largest territorial gain since the first weeks of the conflict, new analysis shows. – Newsweek

Dan Perry writes: The challenge to this trajectory next Sunday is not an isolated incident but part of a global trend. Romania’s proximity to Ukraine and its role in countering Russian aggression make it an especially attractive target. You may consider it a faraway place but make no mistake: George Kennan’s old Domino Theory in this case applies, and if Romania should topple, your domino might be next. – Newsweek

Elie Tenenbaum and Leo Litra write: If Russia remains unyielding, Europe must bear the bulk of the financial assistance to support Ukraine in a protracted conflict. And the need for a European deployment to Ukraine will not diminish. Part of a guarantor force—such as air defense and combat air patrols or a spearhead battalion to serve in a training role—could even be deployed while the war is still underway. This posture would show Russia that Europe is resolved to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and that European troops will be present there no matter what. It would tell Putin that even as politics fluctuate, the West is prepared to stand its ground. – Foreign Affairs

Syria

Syrian government warplanes struck Aleppo in northwest Syria on Monday, state media and rescue workers said, as President Bashar al-Assad’s government moved to repel rebels who took control of the city in a recent lightning offensive. – Wall Street Journal

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest allies, Russia and Iran, pledged unconditional support to his government on Monday, sending warplanes and voicing diplomatic support as his forces attempted to repel a startling rebel advance in his country’s northwest. – New York Times

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani boarded a bus in Damascus in March 2003, heading across the desert to Baghdad with fellow volunteers eager to repel the looming American invasion of Iraq. – Wall Street Journal

Developments in Syria show the need for the Syrian government to reconcile with its people and the opposition, and Turkey is ready to contribute to such a dialogue, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Monday. – Reuters

Hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria on Monday to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, but Lebanon’s Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to sources. – Reuters

U.S. policy on Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has not changed, the State Department said on Monday, saying the president was a dictator with blood on his hands but declining to specify whether Washington wants him out of power. – Reuters

Syrian rebel fighters began preparations to seize Aleppo a year ago but the assault was delayed by war in Gaza and ultimately launched last week when a ceasefire took hold in Lebanon, the head of Syria’s main opposition abroad told Reuters. – Reuters

A Syrian rebel involved in a re-energized insurgency challenging regime forces reportedly told an Israeli network that the IDF’s campaign against Iran-backed forces had likely aided opposition fighters who managed to capture Aleppo and other areas in a lightning offensive last week. – Times of Israel

Graeme Wood writes: According to his Cabinet nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump intends to remove those troops. (He called them “cannon fodder,” but whose cannons they would be fed into is anyone’s guess.) If they are removed, the United States—not even a spectator at that point—will have even less say over how any deal might look. Right now America’s advantage would be best served by staying put, and safeguarding its remaining influence over the world that is preparing to be born out of the ruins of this decade-long civil war. – The Atlantic

Arman Mahmoudian writes: Finally, ensuring the survival of the Assad regime, now more than ever, requires greater coordination and mutual understanding between Iran, Russia, and Turkey. While some suggest that Turkey may be supporting the rebel advance, this view overlooks Ankara’s likely aversion to the total collapse of the Syrian regime. Factors such as Turkey’s wariness of HTS (previously linked to Al Qaeda), concerns over the group’s future trajectory, and the potential for Syrian Kurds to exploit any ensuing chaos are elements that might push Ankara toward favoring limited objectives and some level of de-escalation soon. Therefore, cooperation among these key players could serve as a lifeline for the regime as it navigates the perils facing it. – National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have discussed with each other the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, five people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, will arrive in Britain on Monday for a two-day state visit hosted by King Charles and during which he will also meet Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is seeking deeper ties with wealthy Gulf states. – Reuters

Major companies in the arms industry saw a 4.2% increase in overall revenue in 2023 with sharp rises for producers based in Russia and the Middle East, a new report said Monday. – Associated Press

Saudi Arabia’s growing influence and massive spending in global sports ahead of being confirmed by FIFA as the 2034 World Cup host was detailed on Monday in a report that cited risks to good governance off the field. – Times of Israel

A senior official from the United Arab Emirates traveled to Israel on Friday to attend the shiva of Chabad-Lubavitch emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan, who was recently killed in a suspected terror attack in the UAE. – Algemeiner

Andrew Latham writes: The stakes are high, and the decisions made in the coming months will shape the trajectory of the region — and America’s role in it — for years to come. By avoiding unnecessary entanglement and focusing on prudent, indirect engagement, the U.S. can turn this moment of regional upheaval into an opportunity for a more sustainable and balanced strategy. – The Hill

Ilan Berman writes: The challenge is acute. After years of policy drift, the incoming administration will need to figure out a way to rebuild America’s regional credibility in the Middle East, while simultaneously guaranteeing the security of commerce there. For Donald Trump, who stressed the need for fresh economic policies while on the campaign trail, setting his sights on the Houthis would simply constitute good business. – Newsweek

China

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, is a strident critic of Chinese trade abuses, including its alleged use of forced labor. In Trump’s cabinet, Rubio’s tough stance on the issue could mean a headache for importers in general and a threat to e-commerce giants that rely on Chinese imports such as Shein and Temu. – Wall Street Journal

Last week, U.S. officials said that China had freed three American men, one of them an F.B.I. informant, in exchange for two imprisoned Chinese spies and at least one other Chinese citizen. – New York Times

China on Monday condemned Lithuania’s expulsion of three Chinese diplomats as relations between the two countries continue to sour. – Associated Press

Asia

In a speech and in a series of meetings with American political figures during his visit to the U.S., Taiwan President Lai Ching-te signaled that Taipei hopes to enjoy the same support from the incoming Trump administration that it has enjoyed from President Biden. – Wall Street Journal

Thousands of Georgians demonstrated in front of their country’s parliament for the fifth night in a row on Monday, widening a political crisis that has set the country’s pro-Russian government against those who want closer ties with the West. – New York Times

Indonesia has yet to decide on any joint development areas with China in the South China Sea, its foreign minister said on Monday, seeking to allay concerns that a recent agreement with Beijing could compromise its sovereignty. – Reuters

Indonesia and Canada on Monday signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that aims to strengthen economic ties between the two G20 members, three years after negotiations began. – Reuters

Georgia’s president, locked in a standoff with her own government, appealed to Western countries on Monday to back what she called a “national movement” in support of Georgia’s integration with the European Union. – Reuters

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Tuesday it is watching the movements of a Chinese aircraft carrier and assessing China’s military activities as security sources said Beijing could launch new war games as soon as this weekend. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te arrived on an official visit to the Marshall Islands on Tuesday, which he said was the first country he had visited since taking office in May, as part of a Pacific tour of diplomatic allies. – Reuters

Philippine civil society and religious leaders asked Congress on Monday to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte over a list of complaints that include graft, incompetence and amassing ill-gotten wealth while in office. – Reuters

The Philippine military deployed a navy ship and air force planes to shadow a Russian submarine, which passed through the South China Sea off the country’s western coast last week, a security official said Monday. – Associated Press

Ia Meurmishvili writes: Georgia is at a turning point. Demonstrations have spread across the country in response to the ruling Georgian Dream’s shocking decision to suspend Georgia’s European Union membership process, started in 2022, after the opposition accused it of rigging a victory in the October parliamentary elections. The events bring to mind the 2014 Maidan Revolution, when Ukrainians protested then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to pull Ukraine away from the EU and closer to Russia. – Foreign Policy

Africa

President Biden arrived in Angola on Monday for the only visit to sub-Saharan Africa of his presidency and perhaps his last overseas trip before he leaves office, but the journey was shadowed by his decision to pardon his son of tax and gun convictions. – New York Times

A controversial refereeing decision sparked violence and a crush at a soccer match in southeast Guinea, killing 56 people, according to a provisional toll, the government said on Monday, as a witness described scenes of chaos. – Reuters

Namibia’s ruling SWAPO party led both the presidential and parliamentary races on Tuesday, a week after voting took place in an election marred by technical challenges. – Reuters

United States

The U.S. Senate on Monday confirmed the promotion of Army Lieutenant General Christopher Donahue, who had been a commander in Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal, after it was briefly blocked by a Republican senator. – Reuters

Fears that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon spiral into a global, nuclear confrontation have driven Americans’ interest in underground bunkers as a means of surviving future catastrophes. – Newsweek

Eli Lake writes: Does Hunter Biden’s influence peddling add up to a scandal? Sure it does—a far bigger scandal than the gun and tax crimes that he was charged with. But the larger scandal is how the resistance to Trump—not just by Democrats but by supposedly nonpartisan agencies like the FBI—created a two-tiered legal system in Washington. The justice system was weaponized against Trump and his allies. For Biden’s son, the justice system was his protection. – The Free Press

Defense

Some Air Force bases may not have enough airmen to both send wings overseas and keep operating at home under the service’s new deployment plan, a Government Accountability Office report said Tuesday. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy is transforming a costly flub into a potent weapon with the first shipborne hypersonic weapon, which is being retrofitted aboard the first of its three stealthy destroyers. – Defense News

The 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment can sink warships and other maritime targets now that it has the first operational anti-ship missile system. – USNI News

The Army is seeking 300 lieutenants from oversaturated combat arms fields to voluntarily transfer into understaffed roles. Lieutenants currently branched in armor, infantry, combat engineer and field artillery can apply between Jan. 7 and Feb. 17 to transfer to adjutant general, air defense, finance, logistics and signal corps, the service announced in November. – Military.com